The implications of this story are several and not insignificant. Most obviously, it suggests that the front-runner’s diplomatic skills could use some refinement. It also raises the issue, which has cropped up in a different form after New Hampshire, Super-Duper Tuesday, and the Ohio and Texas primaries, of Obama’s capacity to close the deal.
On the Obama campaign's desertion of the high road:
For all its rhetoric about practicing a new, more virtuous brand of politics, the Obama campaign has been going after Clinton hammer and tongs. Rarely a day passes without his people dubbing her a liar and a fraud....They have accused Bill Clinton of McCarthyism and invoked the infamous blue dress on which he left his, er, DNA—the latter coming on a blog post arguing that he actually makes McCarthy look benign. Indeed, it sometimes seems as if the Obamans are actively trying to cede the moral high ground.
The article is not a Clinton puff-piece. Rather, it's about who, if anyone in the Democratic party, could end the race.
Despite the long history of mutual animus between Al Gore and Hillary, Gore has resisted the temptation to throw his weight behind Obama; and because of that history, even if he did, it would likely have little effect on her determination to carry on, as Gore is well aware. Edwards, who I’m told at one juncture discussed with Gore the possibility of a joint endorsement, now appears to prefer staying mum for the time being, or, if anything, backing Clinton. And Jimmy Carter has stated unequivocally his intention to refrain from choosing sides.
As for why those closest to Hillary aren't calling for her to withdraw from the race:
For the moment, none of these people, as far as I know, is advising Hillary to fold. They are not idiots and they are not blind—they can read the writing on the wall and do the math as well. But they also believe that, though Clinton’s path to the nomination has narrowed to a cliff walk, it hasn’t been barricaded. If she beats Obama in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Indiana, it may widen again, should the superdelegates start questioning his durability and the potency of his electoral coalition. Or Obama’s candidacy could suddenly blow up in a more spectacular fashion—over further revelations about Wright or some other political IED planted on the roadside ahead.
Where the article falls short is in its speculation at the end that Hillary will exit in time for a unity pony because she believes Obama will lose in November and she can then win in 2012.
If HRC believes that Obama will lose in November, there can be no doubt that she’s already calculating, in the back of her head, the best way to position herself for 2012. A scorched-earth campaign against Obama is plainly not the way to do that. A classy exit, a show of unity, an act that apparently places party before self: That’s the ticket.
I don't think Hillary is thinking about 2012. I suspect she finds even the idea of another contested primary campaign exhausting right now. She's in this to win. She's counting on the superdelegates, and a big win in PA. Indiana would be nice, and while I don't think she'll carry North Carolina, she will get West Virginia, and in my view, Puerto Rico.
By the numbers so far (pdf):
...Going into the April 22 Pennsylvania primary, approximately 26.5 million votes have been cast in Democratic Party primaries and caucuses (excluding Florida and Michigan). Obama has received approximately 13.6 million votes, or 51.3%, and Clinton has received approximately 12.9 million votes, or 48.7%. If Florida’s vote is included, then Obama’s popular vote total is just under 14.2 million, or 50.7%, and Clinton’s is just under 13.8 million, or 49.3%. If both Florida’s and Michigan’s votes are included, then Obama’s popular vote total is just under 14.2 million, or 50.2%, and Clinton’s is 14.1 million, or 49.8%, out of the total number of votes cast thus far of 28.9 million.
According to the Associated Press, Clinton currently has the support of 246 superdelegates, or 53.6%, to Obama’s 213, or 46.4%. Obama, however, has 1,406 pledged elected delegates, or 53%, to Clinton’s 1,249, or 47%. Combining the two results in Obama having the support of 1,619 delegates, or 52%, to Clinton’s 1,495, or 48%.
The important part is we're not done voting yet:
An estimated 12 million individuals are eligible to vote in the 10 remaining Democratic primaries or caucuses (Pennsylvania, Guam, Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Montana, South Dakota.) Together, these states and territories will have 566 elected pledged delegates and 124 superdelegates.
The superdelegates will decide this race. They won't listen to Pelosi or Reid. Here's where they stand so far:
Among subcategories of superdelegates:
- Obama has the support of 12 Governors to Clinton’s 10, with 9 uncommitted.
- Obama has the support of 15 Senators to Clinton’s 13, with 20 uncommitted.
- Clinton has the support of 73 House of Representatives members to Obama’s 71, with 78 uncommitted.
- Clinton has the support of 140 members of the Democratic National Committee to Obama’s 107, with 151 uncommitted.
- Clinton has the support of 10 distinguished party leaders to Obama’s 4, with 5 uncommitted.
- Obama has the support of 2 add‐ons to none for Clinton, with 74 uncommitted.
Update: Comments now closed.
