After TX and OH; On To FL And MI?
By Big Tent Democrat
Speaking for me only.
I am hesitant about raising this because, in my view, Senator Clinton needs to win the popular vote in both Ohio and Texas to have a reasonably legitimate narrative for winning the nomination - to wit, Obama has not won any contested big states key to the general election. And I do not think she will win both. But I proceed intrepidly.
Everywhere you go that is pro-Obama, places like NBC and TPM, you hear about the delegate math. Clinton trails Obama by some 160-odd pledged delegates and she will have to win around 65% of the remaining pledged delegates to retake the pledged delegate lead. Of course this accepts the Obama camp's spin that the pledged delegate result is the final word on who the nominee is. And that is simply not true. There are 700+ Super delegates who will decide who the nominee is. That is just plain fact. Neither candidate will reach the 2025 mark. But it also ignores two big pieces of the puzzle. Florida and Michigan. Under the current results, the now excluded Michigan and Florida delegation would give a net gain for Clinton of 76 pledged delegates. But of course this is not going to happen that way. But a revote could happen if Clinton wins both Texas and Ohio tonight. Why? Because it would likely be to the advantage of the Democrats, the DNC, Clinton AND Obama if Clinton sweeps Texas and Ohio tonight. I'll explain why on the flip.
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