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Last Minute Predictions and Thoughts Before the Results Come In

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:38:55 PM EST
Tags: Ohio '08, Texas '08 (all tags)
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I'm going to take a break here for a spell.

We're a few hours from exit polls and results.

How are you feeling about the candidates' chances? Have you changed your predictions since this morning?

What's making you most nervous?

I'll also put up a Media Horse's A*s thread around 7pm ET for you to rant about your least favorite anchors and pundits.

See you soon and yes, we'll be covering the results through the evening. I hope you'll join us. Those threads will open with all election-related comments welcome.

< Dirty Tricks in Texas and Ohio? | First Exit Polls: "Independent" Turrnout >

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    Last Minute Predictions and Thoughts Before the Results Come In | 41 comments (41 topical)

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    So looking forward to that Media thread! (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by Maria Garcia on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:41:10 PM EST
    I'm still just projecting Ohio and RI for Hillary. Longshot she wins popular vote narrowly in TX, but the caucuses will go to Obama.

    Frankly, I expect (5.00 / 2) (#2)
    by andgarden on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:41:46 PM EST
    Hillary to pull off popular vote wins in both states--though TX will be closer. I wouldn't have said the same thing 5 days ago.

    The media spin will be interesting.

    I say. . . (5.00 / 2) (#3)
    by LarryInNYC on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:43:35 PM EST
    Obama finishes the night no worse than he started, and probably better off.

    Parent
    If my predicted outcome comes to pass (5.00 / 3) (#6)
    by andgarden on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:45:59 PM EST
    the Clinton campaign will successful launch the "buyer's remorse" media narrative.

    From Obama's camp, watch for further accusations of racism.

    Parent

    From Obama's camp, add further whining (5.00 / 3) (#23)
    by oculus on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:03:53 PM EST
    that HRC campaign's whining about media bias against her is making him lose!

    Parent
    I got over my grieving two weeks ago and (5.00 / 1) (#5)
    by Teresa on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:45:42 PM EST
    now you blew it andgarden! I'm starting to get my hopes up. But, I can't forget how well Obama has outperformed his polling lately.

    Parent
    I could easily be wrong, of course (5.00 / 1) (#8)
    by andgarden on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:47:31 PM EST
    but I think that,no matter what the blogosphere says, the campaign goes forward.

    Parent
    Even if she loses the popular vote in (none / 0) (#10)
    by Teresa on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:49:34 PM EST
    Texas and Ohio? I'm not sure she should.

    Parent
    I should have qualified (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by andgarden on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:56:26 PM EST
    if my scenario comes to pass.

    I think if she loses TX or OH, she should probably drop out. I'm looking forward to my PA vote counting, of course.

    Parent

    I hope your vote counts too. (5.00 / 1) (#31)
    by Teresa on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:20:51 PM EST
    We moved our primary up this year (TN) and it was a great feeling to know that my vote meant something.

    Parent
    He has outperformed but... (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by Maria Garcia on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:52:09 PM EST
    ...but that was when he was trending up. I think he's in a little downward trend right now.

    Parent
    Not feeling great about anybody (5.00 / 1) (#4)
    by catfish on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:43:53 PM EST
    So many people get news now strictly from their favorite blogs, or from twitter, or from that 24-hour talk show, MSNBC.

    The campaign will go on to Pennsylvania. Bickering will ensue.

    Senator Clinton sweeps all but Vermont (5.00 / 4) (#7)
    by Salt on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:47:00 PM EST
    Tx by about 3-5 percent.

    Parent
    I agree (5.00 / 2) (#12)
    by ahazydelirium on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:51:25 PM EST
    Her wins in Ohio and Rhode Island will be fairly sizable (Ohio by a larger margin); Texas will be a narrow win (but strong showing in the caucuses); Vermont will go to Obama by a wide margin.

    Parent
    At least Howard Dean doesn't seem to be (5.00 / 3) (#9)
    by Teresa on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:48:09 PM EST
    pulling a Bill Richardson. He doesn't think we'll have a nominee tomorrow (no joke Howard) but he says that's fine as long as we do by the convention. Now if the others will just shut up and let people vote.

    Good for Dean (5.00 / 1) (#17)
    by catfish on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:58:11 PM EST
    I remember Bill Richardson in 2004 - when it got down to Kerry vs. Edwards, Richardson says we need to coalesce around Kerry. Thanks Bill.

    Parent
    Dean Says Let it Continue (5.00 / 3) (#21)
    by Athena on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:59:40 PM EST
    Who cares what Bill Richardson thinks?  That was the most overplayed clip of the week.  

    Bravo to Howard Dean - who's not afraid of the legitimately scheduled primary season running its course until June.

    Parent

    No real change in the alignment (5.00 / 6) (#11)
    by scribe on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:50:14 PM EST
    of candidates.  HRC won't fold.  Obama won't get the knockout.

    The media will grow more shrill.  Frankly, I can't be bothered watching KO anymore - he's gone off the deep end a bit and needs to dial it back.  Tweety II, he ain't and shouldn't try to be.

    Both sides on the Dem race need to dial back the intra-party antagonism which seems to be building.  Debate each other politely, and dominate the news.  Whichever side wins - both sides need to support the nominee.  Both candidates need to make that clear to their supporters now, and often going forward.

    Proposal for the next debate's topic:  "John McCain's flip-flops on policy and votes".  That'd be fun to watch.

    Final prediction:  there will be do over primaries in Fla. and Mich.  Hopefully, the DNC will make sure they are closed primaries, so Democrats will select the Democratic nominee.

    Mail In? (5.00 / 1) (#14)
    by BDB on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:55:32 PM EST
    I could go for mail-in ballots in Florida and Michigan that are mailed only to registered Dems.  It keeps too much of a burden off the people from having to vote again and doesn't let Republicans, who would have no candidate, play spoiler.  It also would be a lot cheaper.  

    But if Clinton takes OH or TX, then I agree with BTD's earlier post, FL and MI will have to be taken care of.

    Parent

    Vote by mail works in Oregon (none / 0) (#24)
    by scribe on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:05:54 PM EST
    or so I've heard.

    That would seem to be the best way to go about it.

    Now, do you send the ballot to the registered Dems, or make them come in/call in/mail in and get them?

    Parent

    That's so wrong bro... (none / 0) (#28)
    by kdog on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:14:59 PM EST
    If I was still living in Florida, I would like a say in the future of our country, as an independent.

    The only clube you should have to be a member of to have a say in the future of our country is the american citizens club.  Send everyone a ballot.  If people play games they play games, better that than to silence sincere voices.

    Parent

    kdog (none / 0) (#32)
    by Kathy on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:20:58 PM EST
    you have a point, but there are 18 million people in Florida.  How are you going to send ballots to all of them?  Who is going to pay the postage?  What about return postage?

    Parent
    In CA, absentee voters (none / 0) (#40)
    by oculus on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:09:11 PM EST
    get postage-pd. absentee ballots but have to put a stamp on the return envelope.

    Parent
    Hillary wins TX and OH (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by AF on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:55:54 PM EST
    By small margins, gains few if any net pledged delegates.

    Initial spin is big win for Hillary.  

    Day two the spin is that she can't make it within striking distance on pledged delegates.

    Interesting exit polls: white women have highest turnout, African Americans 20% of electorate in Ohio.

    Clinton aides reportedly have seen exit polls showing "slim leads" for Clinton in TX and OH.

    That's high AA turnout in Ohio (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by Cream City on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:58:39 PM EST
    at almost twice their proportion of the population, which is just under 12% there. Now I have to go see, poll by poll, which ones predicted AA turnout at about that level to see their overall scores.

    Parent
    Problem with exit polling so early in the day (5.00 / 1) (#26)
    by Cream City on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:11:11 PM EST
    in Ohio may be the same as has been seen again and again in Wisconsin -- there can be significantly different demographics in daytime voters, such as retirees (i.e., older and more likely Clinton voters), vs. evening voters such as workers as well as parents who need to take turns staying home to keep the kids doing homework and not watching tv.:-)

    Parent
    Egad (none / 0) (#20)
    by catfish on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:58:49 PM EST
    don't jinx it with predictions.

    Parent
    Here is a prediction about TL (5.00 / 6) (#18)
    by Molly Bloom on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:58:17 PM EST
    I won't be able to access the blog and comment because TL's traffic goes through the roof.

    We're gonna test out that new server. (5.00 / 1) (#22)
    by Teresa on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:02:27 PM EST


    Parent
    Plus, BTD implodes over (5.00 / 2) (#25)
    by oculus on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:08:00 PM EST
    TV pundits doing their thing.  

    Parent
    I just hope (none / 0) (#29)
    by Kathy on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:18:51 PM EST
    he doesn't have to ban himself again.

    You know someone will try to pick a fight.

    Parent

    Implodes? (none / 0) (#30)
    by Molly Bloom on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:20:12 PM EST
    Just more grist for his mill.

    Parent
    We hope to be okay (none / 0) (#36)
    by Jeralyn on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:38:23 PM EST
    We had problems early this am and Colin, our webmaster, has been tweaking all day. We've been good all afternoon. Keep your fingers crossed.

    Parent
    Thanks for your efforts (none / 0) (#39)
    by Molly Bloom on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:53:35 PM EST
    I missed some of the last debates due to being stuck with my old laptop and apparently your site was overwhelmed.

    It is a good problem for you to have.

    Parent

    Not sure what the recent movement means (5.00 / 1) (#27)
    by fuzzyone on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:14:28 PM EST
    many said it was from the red phone ad but this suggests not (though views may change upon reflection).   Maybe its the shift in coverage, polling quirk, who knows.  I think the polls are sufficiently all over the place that I fear to predict TX and OH (RI and VT seem clear Hillary and Obama respectively).  I think the TX primary is very close with a slight Obama edge because I think African-American turnout will be very high.  Ohio seems like it will go to Hillary.

    The key will be how the media frames the outcome.  Will they frame it as wins and losses of states or will thay frame it in terms of delegates won.  If the former it is probably better for Hillary, the later for Obama.  Given that the whole media meme seems to be in flux right now I'm not sure how that goes either.

    Wow, that was a long way of saying I have no idea what is going to happen.

    Here, fuzzyone (none / 0) (#34)
    by jen on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:24:59 PM EST
    this is all you need to know:

    Clinton is going to lose

    (Lance Mannion's blog)

    Parent

    Maybe so (none / 0) (#38)
    by fuzzyone on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:43:20 PM EST
    As I said the meme may be shifting.  Certainly the delegate counting side is out there

    Parent
    The weather in Ohio (none / 0) (#33)
    by Foxx on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:24:18 PM EST
    is what bothers me the most.

    It is so unfair to Hillary. She can't count FL and MI and now her OH voters can't vote.

    Hillary wins Texas and Ohio (none / 0) (#37)
    by mexboy on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:39:01 PM EST
    Texas by 3 points
    Ohio by 9
    That's my prediction

    Hillary wins (none / 0) (#41)
    by PlayInPeoria on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:35:02 PM EST
    Ohio by 10 points
    Texas the popular vote but Obama gets a couple more delegates.

    hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm!! (none / 0) (#42)
    by cpinva on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:02:11 PM EST
    How are you feeling about the candidates' chances?

    regardless of the outcomes, the "media" will continue it's mass attacks on clinton, up to and beyond the grave.

    Last Minute Predictions and Thoughts Before the Results Come In | 41 comments (41 topical)

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