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Texas Exit Polls

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:03:15 PM EST
Tags: Texas '08 (all tags)
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Update: Looks like the 3 am ad worked, Texas voters said Hillary is more able to keep our country secure according to CNN.

Big Tent has a first exit poll thread about the Independent vote here.

CNN now has this:

Hillary Clinton holds a two-to-one advantage over Barack Obama with Hispanic voters in Texas, while blacks are overwhelmingly supporting him in Tuesday’s Democratic presidential primary, according to CNN’s exit poll.

These early surveys provide a snapshot of the race, but are not conclusive on who will win this critical contest. Eighty three percent of blacks voted for Obama, while 16 percent supported Clinton, according to the exit poll. Meanwhile, 64 percent of Hispanics backed Clinton, while 32 percent went for Obama.

Update [2008-3-4 18:27:40 by Big Tent Democrat]: Conflicting exit polls -Marc Ambinder sez Clinton with "slim leads" in Ohio and Texas. NRO has two conflicting exits (meaning? trust neither?) - one has Obama winning both by 2, the other with Clinton up 2 in Ohio and tied in Texas.

< Who's the Biggest Media Horse's As*s? | Ohio Exit Polls >

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    Texas Exit Polls | 84 comments (84 topical)

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    CBS exit polls (5.00 / 2) (#17)
    by americanincanada on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:32:14 PM EST
    32 percent of Texas primary voters are Hispanic -- up from the 24 percent in 2004.

    In Ohio, 20 percent are African American, up from 14 percent in 2004.

    Eighteen percent of Texas primary voters today are black, down from 21 percent in 2004.


    Are those online yet? (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by Shawn on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:33:29 PM EST
    n/t

    Parent
    Online at Talking Points and Kos (none / 0) (#83)
    by 1jane on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:38:51 PM EST
    Texas, with one % reporting Obama 58% and Clinton 41% giving Obama a 17 pt early lead in very very early returns.

    Parent
    CBS again (5.00 / 1) (#31)
    by americanincanada on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:43:42 PM EST
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Bob Schieffer reports as of now, in Texas, Hispanic American vote is up huge and African American vote is down from 2004.  


    Parent

    It seems to me (5.00 / 1) (#33)
    by Steve M on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:45:32 PM EST
    Even though the percentage of black voters may be down from 2004, I'd be very surprised if black turnout is down.  It's more likely that turnout is way up across the board, but black voters already had good turnout in 2004 and thus have less room to improve.

    Parent
    Oh sure (none / 0) (#37)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:47:08 PM EST
    That's what I understood.

    Parent
    Down? (none / 0) (#34)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:45:36 PM EST
    Wow!

    Parent
    Keep in mind that they may just (5.00 / 1) (#38)
    by Cream City on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:47:22 PM EST
    be more likely to vote later (working-class voters).

    Parent
    law of numbers (none / 0) (#44)
    by joei on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:48:49 PM EST
    when u have a minority pop. of 10%, even twice the usual numbers will be only 10% more for the rest of the pop.

    Parent
    skip the long dashes in your comment (none / 0) (#41)
    by Jeralyn on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:48:11 PM EST
    they'll skew the site, thanks.

    Parent
    32% (none / 0) (#18)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:33:14 PM EST
    That's big. Belo then predicts a comforable clinton win.

    Parent
    32%?! (5.00 / 1) (#32)
    by Steve M on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:44:26 PM EST
    What will Michelle Malkin say?

    Remember, though, it's only Obama who inspires people to come to the polls.

    Parent

    Link (none / 0) (#21)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:35:01 PM EST
    Belo sez 32% translates into 4 point clinton win in Texas.

    Parent
    Thank you for pouring over all those (5.00 / 1) (#29)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:41:29 PM EST
    graphs so I don't have to.  Long day.....graphs promise a headache.

    Parent
    It is further down (5.00 / 2) (#30)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:42:25 PM EST
    Trust me.

    Actually it is a 4 point win IF it is 30%. 32% makes it 5.

    Parent

    And I thought you were perfect BTD. (none / 0) (#22)
    by Teresa on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:36:21 PM EST
    Link?

    Parent
    Link (5.00 / 1) (#25)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:38:33 PM EST
    Belo.

    Parent
    It's below their proportion (none / 0) (#45)
    by Cream City on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:49:59 PM EST
    of the population in TX, though -- more than 35%. So those polls that used models based on previously lower turnout may be okay. But some predicated their polls more on population. And some polls did so similar with AAs, of course. So the question again will be answered by which polls had the best models and methodology. Do you recall which ones estimated these turnouts?

    Parent
    this can't possibly include (none / 0) (#82)
    by Kathy on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:13:00 PM EST
    early voting, which they can't exit poll.  Obama did a huge push for early voting.

    Maybe I just don't want to believe the turnout was that low.

    Though, on the other side of that coin, that's fabulous news about the Hispanic turnout.  Political involvement is key for getting their voices heard.  The nation is watching these exit polls.

    Parent

    I was checking census data earlier today and (none / 0) (#23)
    by Angel on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:36:27 PM EST
    saw that the 2006 numbers are 12% Black and 34% Hispanic for Texas, with 4% Asian and remainder White or Other.

    Parent
    But Latinos (none / 0) (#24)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:37:28 PM EST
    have been around 24% of the electorate.

    Parent
    If this holds then Clinton should win it. (none / 0) (#26)
    by Angel on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:39:17 PM EST


    Parent
    I think so (none / 0) (#27)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:40:32 PM EST
    Especially as the exits have her winning Latinos 2-1.

    Parent
    This may explain why Republicans (none / 0) (#39)
    by oculus on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:47:25 PM EST
    favor building that fence.

    Parent
    Excuse me, but the voters are legal. Were you (none / 0) (#46)
    by Angel on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:51:09 PM EST
    trying to make a joke?  If so, not funny.

    Parent
    I was joking, but I do think, and I live in (none / 0) (#64)
    by oculus on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:57:54 PM EST
    Southern Cal., many Latinos who once lived in Mexico or further South, now live in the U.S. Their children, whom I tutor, are U.S. citizens and many are reaching voting age.  

    Parent
    that's a slight advantage to Obama, right? (none / 0) (#36)
    by A DC Wonk on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:46:37 PM EST
    Or am I doing something wrong:

    .18*.16 + .32*.64 = .234 for HRC
    .18*.83 + .32*.32 = .252 for Obama

    Parent

    DC wonk... (none / 0) (#70)
    by p lukasiak on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:00:02 PM EST
    your percentages are right.  

    But SUSA has white voters going 53-41 for Clinton...

    my big question is whether the exit polling data will include only voters who went to the polls today, or if it will include early voter data.

    Parent

    SurveyUSA had (none / 0) (#71)
    by MKS on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:01:41 PM EST
    Hillary winning the overall white vote by 4% in the last poll....So, using your calculation (which seems correct given the data above)  that would mean a 4 point Hillary win in Texas...

    Here are other exit polling data from MyDD.  They show Obama up 51-49 in Texas and Ohio, and a tie in RI at 49....

    Parent

    Exits at Huffpo (none / 0) (#72)
    by MKS on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:06:39 PM EST
    Show Obama up 51-49 in Ohio; and 50-49 in Texas; and a tie in RI.

    It looks very similar to MyDD (is it the same exit poll with typos?)

    Parent

    Sound inoperative from what we are hearing (none / 0) (#74)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:11:14 PM EST
    on the demos.

    Parent
    Different polls (none / 0) (#75)
    by MKS on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:15:29 PM EST
    The two sets of data do conflict....With a large Latino turnout in Texas, Hillary should not be behind....something has to give...

    Parent
    They could be unweighted (none / 0) (#77)
    by Shawn on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:18:51 PM EST


    Parent
    Good pont; early exit polls always unweighted (none / 0) (#80)
    by Cream City on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:03:27 PM EST
    and not released, so ought not have been leaked, as useless until weighted by best guess of turnout models -- and then adjusted again and again as actual turnout numbers come in.

    Parent
    the texas percentages... (none / 0) (#52)
    by p lukasiak on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:53:48 PM EST
    are very close to the last SUSA poll, which had it at 32% Hispanic, 17% AA.

    SUSA's last Ohio poll had 16% AA, but given her lead there, that shouldn't make a critical difference.

    Parent

    Without telling us the who turned out number (none / 0) (#1)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:08:23 PM EST
    That is meaningless. Though Hillary is doing better with A-As than expected.

    Really? The AA number looks about right to me (none / 0) (#2)
    by andgarden on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:11:02 PM EST
    +/- 3-4.

    Parent
    PPP anbd others (none / 0) (#3)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:14:49 PM EST
    had her at 9-10 percent.

    Parent
    SUSA say 18% (none / 0) (#10)
    by andgarden on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:24:35 PM EST
    so, we'll see.

    Parent
    Looks moot now (none / 0) (#43)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:48:42 PM EST


    Parent
    OTOH he is doing roughly twice as well (none / 0) (#13)
    by JoeA on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:27:58 PM EST
    as Clinton amongst Hispanics as she is doing amongst the AA community.  If that holds out and their turnout is roughly similar then does that not favour Obama (obviously depending on how the non- AA and Hispanic votes go)?

    Parent
    It wopuld but (none / 0) (#28)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:41:17 PM EST
    it did not hold. Latino turnout 32%.

    Parent
    This again is why the focus on caucuses (none / 0) (#50)
    by Cream City on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:52:14 PM EST
    for Obama -- to claim more delegates, with a third coming from caucuses, compared to popular vote. Watch for it to be a repeat of his claim of winning Nevada. The question, then, is whether the media will buy it again.

    Parent
    But presumably the exits are not going (none / 0) (#53)
    by JoeA on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:53:51 PM EST
    to accurately pick up the early vote which constitutes 50% in Texas.  I wouldn't write Obama off yet.

    Parent
    That Belo poll being linked to is not an exit (none / 0) (#65)
    by JoeA on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:58:11 PM EST
    Its a Tracking NOT an exit poll. poll.  As such I dont see how the internals on that are going to more accurately predict the result any more than any other recent polls?

    Parent
    Sorry misunderstoon BTD (none / 0) (#68)
    by JoeA on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:59:31 PM EST
    ie that you were using the Belo internals to interpret the results from the CBS exit.

    Parent
    CBS has this (none / 0) (#59)
    by Coldblue on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:56:06 PM EST
    Thirty-two percent of Texas Democratic primary voters are Hispanic, according to the early exit polls -- up from the 24 percent in 2004. Eighteen percent are black, down from 21 percent in 2004.

    Link

    Parent
    Oops (none / 0) (#63)
    by Coldblue on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:57:38 PM EST
    already posted below...please delete.

    Parent
    Wonder what explains ... (none / 0) (#66)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:58:22 PM EST
    the drop in black voters (or even parity considering MOE)?

    Parent
    Saw this first on Fox (none / 0) (#4)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:20:45 PM EST
    and now Halperin repeats it:

    Best to beat the GOP:

    Ohio -- Obama 52, Clinton 44
    Texas -- Obama 52, Clinton 41

    Offers clear and detailed plans:

    Ohio -- Clinton 67, Obama 57
    Texas -- Clinton 66, Obama 52

    Inspires you about the future?

    Ohio -- Obama 67, Clinton 57
    Texas -- Obama 64, Clinton 57

    Now some think this is good for Obama. At least for Ohio, I know that the last Ohio poll (which Clinton led by double digits) showed 72% thought Obama could beat McCain compared to 48 % for Hillary. I think that number is good for Hillary.

    If Clinton wins Ohio, explain that GE (none / 0) (#7)
    by Teresa on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:23:36 PM EST
    poll to me. Her voters vote for her even though they think Obama has a better chance in Nov?

    Parent
    Yep (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:30:16 PM EST


    Parent
    also, GOP voters (none / 0) (#20)
    by A DC Wonk on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:34:47 PM EST
    some are reporting that, GOP voters are going to HRC, b/c they think she'd be easier for McCain to beat.  That, too, would explain some of the GE poll numbers.

    Parent
    Is this a misprint? (none / 0) (#35)
    by Virginian on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:45:46 PM EST
    How do we get 67 to 57 percent splits?

    Parent
    not a split (none / 0) (#40)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:48:08 PM EST


    Parent
    hmmm (none / 0) (#47)
    by Virginian on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:51:12 PM EST
    so its p q, yes no, not BO or HRC

    Parent
    Early voters v. exit polls (none / 0) (#5)
    by Oje on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:20:59 PM EST
    Are these site-based polls only or phone calls to early voters as well?

    The early voters tab by SUSA showed Clinton with the early voter lead. If these do not include early voters, Obama has to be winning (3-5%) in these exit polls it order to have a chance to overtake Clinton.

    They say the adjust it (none / 0) (#6)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:21:27 PM EST
    but it clearly is less reliable.

    Parent
    Than, a tie goes to... (none / 0) (#9)
    by Oje on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:24:27 PM EST
    the networks, who will keep people (like us) glued to their televisions until 10pm EST tonight.

    Parent
    Oy (none / 0) (#11)
    by Oje on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:24:54 PM EST
    Then, a tie goes to....

    Parent
    Earliest exit polls not adjusted much (none / 0) (#81)
    by Cream City on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:06:22 PM EST
    and especially if leaked, not ready for release. Then raw results are adjusted to best models for turnout, but those really are off this year. So not until they start to adjust to actual turnout reports do they start to be useful -- thus the delay now, and they may be seeing some unexpected data in turnout that call for further checking first.

    Parent
    I think they actually do a phone survey (none / 0) (#8)
    by andgarden on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:23:44 PM EST
    for that, just like they do for Oregon's vote by mail.

    I could be wrong.

    Parent

    Apparently the exit polls (none / 0) (#12)
    by AF on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:25:42 PM EST
    Show photo-finishes in OH and TX.  This is from polls leaked to NRO.

    Quick Question - Link to Live Feed (none / 0) (#14)
    by sar75 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:29:19 PM EST
    Hey,

    Can someone give me a link to a live feed from CNN, MSNBC, or FOX (Frankly, I wouldn't mind hearing Rove talk about this for kicks...)

    Thanks!

    Kinda sad (none / 0) (#15)
    by dk on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:29:57 PM EST
    when we rely in any way on NRO.  Just sayin'...

    MSNBC seems to be discussing more (none / 0) (#42)
    by Teresa on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:48:20 PM EST
    of what happens if HC wins than if Obama does. Almost as if they think she's back in the race. I may just have selective hearing though.

    But (none / 0) (#48)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:51:57 PM EST
    Is Tweety in a good mood or a bad mood?

    (I won't watch).

    Parent

    I honestly can't tell yet. He isn't giddy at least (none / 0) (#51)
    by Teresa on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:53:15 PM EST


    Parent
    I watched early (none / 0) (#54)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:54:02 PM EST
    it was entirely dedicated to why won't Hillary get out? Who cares if she wins Ohio and Texas?

    Parent
    Ahhh, (none / 0) (#58)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:56:03 PM EST
    now that's telling....

    Parent
    Great, terrific, what a delight (none / 0) (#62)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:57:22 PM EST
    Am I going to have to spend my whole day tomorrow coming up with what MSNBC is an acronym for? I'm so glad I'm not watching because if I was and she wins I would have to waste my whole day tomorrow doing that and for me it wouldn't be a choice.

    Parent
    Hmm (5.00 / 1) (#76)
    by BrandingIron on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:16:25 PM EST

    Manipulate Some News for Barack Channel?

    Parent
    Starting early!!!! (none / 0) (#79)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:29:26 PM EST
    You are going to be way ahead

    Parent
    John Kerry looks mad. (none / 0) (#49)
    by Teresa on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:52:09 PM EST


    How can you tell? (5.00 / 1) (#57)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:54:49 PM EST
    He's like a block of wood.

    Parent
    But that's hard ... (5.00 / 1) (#60)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:56:28 PM EST
    New England timber.

    ;)

    Parent

    Ouch. nt (5.00 / 1) (#61)
    by Maria Garcia on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:57:00 PM EST


    Parent
    Isn't that his typical state? (none / 0) (#73)
    by Lil on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:10:51 PM EST


    Parent
    Really? (none / 0) (#55)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:54:13 PM EST
    What's he on right now.  I might actually have to go look at this.

    Parent
    MSNBC. He's off now. His main point was (5.00 / 1) (#67)
    by Teresa on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:58:40 PM EST
    how experienced Obama is (has more years in elective office that HC and more foreign policy experience than Bill or GWB had). He was arguing the delegates are what matters, not the vote.

    Parent
    Voters ... (5.00 / 4) (#69)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:00:01 PM EST
    they're so troublesome.

    Parent
    I saw him and agree (none / 0) (#56)
    by Cream City on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:54:19 PM EST
    and I felt sad about that, until I wondered whether he was made for backing Obama or for not BEING Obama four years ago, had Kerry had a better campaign.

    Parent
    He's just pissed (none / 0) (#78)
    by BrandingIron on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:19:31 PM EST
    that this election cycle the people are fighting over who is best to best McCain, because technically the way people are looking at it, the Democrats have two very good candidates to do so.  Kerry was the Anybody But Bush Candidate.  Some of us held our noses and voted fro him.

    Parent
    texas exit poll extrapolation (none / 0) (#84)
    by p lukasiak on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:15:58 PM EST
    Clinton over Obama by 1.4%
    49.99% to 48.58%

    (based on gender breakdown -- other breakdowns are within the same general range.)

    Texas Exit Polls | 84 comments (84 topical)

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