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SUSA IN Poll: Clinton By 16

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:16:01 PM EST
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By Big Tent Democrat

The new world's greatest pollster, SUSA, releases a new Indiana poll:

[T]hree weeks until the [Indiana] primary, Hillary Clinton defeats Barack Obama 55% to 39% . . . Clinton had led by 9 at the beginning of April, leads by 16 mid-month. Here's where the movement is occurring: Among men, Obama had trailed by 2, now trails by 12, a 10-point swing to Clinton. . . . Among Democrats, Obama had trailed by 12, now trails by 27, a 15-point swing to Clinton.

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    SUSA IN Poll: Clinton By 16 | 64 comments (64 topical)

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    Everybody susalove you... (5.00 / 11) (#4)
    by Kathy on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:24:27 PM EST
    Another great poll for Clinton!  I stand by my earlier statement (a blatant rip-off from what I saw on TV), which is that the gaffe gives folks the opportunity to say that they aren't voting for the Mighty O without feeling like they are painting themselves as racist.

    I think that folks who have already counted Clinton out--and I am certainly not one of them--will see that her owning the image as fighting for the little guy, the average American, will greatly benefit her going into the GE.  One of McCain's biggest weaknesses is that oftentimes, he appears out of touch with the situation on the ground (Iraq being one of them) and if Clinton keeps painting herself as the good ol' blue collar, fighting dem that she is...golden!

    Every time the repubs humiliate us, it's one two points: that we're a bunch of smarty pants elitists and that our guy is too much like a woman.  Well, Clinton's stop-blocked one and clearly thrives on the other, so...

    Rise!

    McCain... (5.00 / 1) (#8)
    by madamab on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:29:44 PM EST
    One of McCain's biggest weaknesses is that oftentimes, he appears out of touch with the situation on the ground (Iraq being one of them) and if Clinton keeps painting herself as the good ol' blue collar, fighting dem that she is...golden!

    I could not agree with you more on McCain. I don't know if he's senile or just trying to gin up support for bombing Iran, but his statements on Iraq are terrifying. He appears to have no clue about what's going on there. Sunni, Shi'a - whatevah!

    Parent

    SHe is a good contrast (5.00 / 5) (#14)
    by Kathy on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:34:32 PM EST
    to McCain.  Obama...not so much.  M and O are going for the same independents with the same kind of brand behind them.  With comments like the gaffe, I think he's proven where the McCain folks will go.

    Clinton's electability argument just shot up big time.  THe question is whether or not it went up enough to break the glass ceiling.  I say yes.  Even people who might have a negative view of Clinton know that she knows her policy and she's a fighter.  Obama is so amorphous at this point that people are uncertain about who he is.

    It's better to stick with what you know and win.

    Parent

    I agree, but she still (5.00 / 1) (#18)
    by bjorn on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:36:38 PM EST
    has to win by this margin to really make the point and get the support from SDs.

    Parent
    Agreed... (none / 0) (#22)
    by madamab on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:38:13 PM EST
    M and O are going for the same independents with the same kind of brand behind them.  With comments like the gaffe, I think he's proven where the McCain folks will go.

    I never thought that he'd win Republicans and Independents once McCain became the nominee. If they were dumb enough to nominate Romney or Huckabee, I think Obama could have beaten them quite easily. But Republicans, Independents and even some Democrats are willing to vote for McCain over the unknown. Unfairly, he has a reputation as a moderate which will not be easily repudiated in the GE, IMHO.

    Parent

    With regrets that I can't rate this a 50 (5.00 / 4) (#27)
    by RalphB on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:48:23 PM EST
    instead of a 5.  Simply magnificent news.  I don't care if it came from Grover Norquist, what he said was correct.  Now you don't have to vote against Obama because you don't like him, now you can vote against him because he doesn't like you.

    That's the message for lots of people due to the insufferable snob factor in his CA fundraiser remarks.


    Parent

    Demographics of Race in SUSA poll (5.00 / 1) (#5)
    by Dan the Man on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:26:29 PM EST
    is blacks with 11% while whites is 86%.  According to Factfinder, 8.7% of Indianans is black.  So is the race composition of the Indiana vote too low for blacks?  Maybe.

    Maybe (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by DaveOinSF on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:34:59 PM EST
    But only 52% of the sample are women.  I don't think there's been a state where women have been less than 55%.

    Parent
    Of (5.00 / 1) (#7)
    by sas on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:27:39 PM EST
    all the polls, I trust SUSA.

    They have been pretty much on the mark this entire election season.

    Gallup and Rasmussen lean toward Republicans.  Zogby and ARG are usually way "out there".  Other polling outfits have been having mixed success.

    Wow -- I remember about a month ago... (5.00 / 2) (#10)
    by diplomatic on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:30:35 PM EST
    Many people on the blogs were writing about Indiana as pretty surely in the Obama column.

    Nothing is certain in this race... (5.00 / 3) (#11)
    by madamab on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:32:28 PM EST
    that's why it's so darn addictive.

    And thank goodness TL offers a place for semi-rational discussion without all the name-calling. :-)

    Parent

    Yea, I'm not certain Obama won't win PA (4.00 / 1) (#17)
    by diplomatic on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:36:04 PM EST
    Until the voters actually vote, I always say maybe, if, should, probably... but never WILL or WON't.

    Just superstitious that way!

    Parent

    Wow is right (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by andgarden on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:34:25 PM EST
    Obama proclaimed IN the "tie breaker" this weekend.

    woops (5.00 / 3) (#16)
    by Kathy on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:35:11 PM EST
    bet he wishes he could take a lot of this weekend back.

    Parent
    uh, uh me was misconstrued (5.00 / 4) (#20)
    by diplomatic on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:37:54 PM EST
    NC is the new tie-breaker.  If not, maybe Oregon.

    But wait... This thing is tied?

    Uh oh, I just heard the Math club gasping for air.


    Parent

    HA! (5.00 / 3) (#23)
    by madamab on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:39:30 PM EST
    He just admitted that the race is tied.

    Good catch.

    Parent

    Obama is down (5.00 / 1) (#41)
    by facta non verba on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 04:06:53 PM EST
    nine points in Indiana according this poll:

    http://americanresearchgroup.com/

    Scroll down, it is under the PA poll. Is anyone familiar with the American Research Group?

    Parent

    ARG is junk (5.00 / 1) (#44)
    by andgarden on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 04:09:28 PM EST
    SUSA FTW.

    Parent
    "Obama tanking in Pennsylvania" (5.00 / 1) (#25)
    by diplomatic on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:47:33 PM EST
    The bitter comments may be having an effect, it seems.

    Earlier, I came across a new article in the L.A. Times about that ARG poll BTD was talking about.

    The headline of the article is:

    "New poll shows Barack Obama tanking in Pennsylvania"

    And here's an excerpt:


    "The first fresh poll results from Pennsylvania are in since Barack Obama's "bitter" comments about people in small towns exploded as a news story, and the findings could hardly be worse for the Democratic presidential contender.
    "

    No open thread so this was the next best place to share.
    One last thing... the head of ARG himself gives us a potential new twist to the trend...

    People in Pennsylvania may be getting sick of Obama's ads being on TV all the time.

    Here is the link to the article:
    http://tinyurl.com/5ouoqj

    ARG is a bad poll (5.00 / 1) (#33)
    by waldenpond on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:56:42 PM EST
    Media will quote the 20 pt and then say he's coming back with other polls so the 'antipathy to people who don't look like them' will magicly appear to have faded (which I think is why BTD finds Obama the more electable)

    Parent
    That assumes (5.00 / 2) (#43)
    by badger on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 04:08:53 PM EST
    that the ARG poll is wrong because it overestimates Clinton's lead.

    Maybe it's wrong and underestimates her lead.

    It's a cheery thought.

    Parent

    sure (none / 0) (#38)
    by diplomatic on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 04:01:46 PM EST
    but I still find the comment about the ads interesting.

    The media will do what they always do when Obama is in trouble.  That is to be expected.  The voters will be the final poll.   The morning after the media will likely blame racism against Obama again for the result or if he wins they will say it was one of his speeches.  Rinse and repeat.

    Parent

    No, they're sick of ads which are (5.00 / 1) (#54)
    by MarkL on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 04:43:54 PM EST
    about Obama, not about them and their problem.
    He he he.

    Parent
    The Key Breakdown (5.00 / 1) (#29)
    by The Maven on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:51:20 PM EST
    here, it seems to me, is that among Democrats (72% of the surveyed voters here), Clinton is leading by close to a 2-1 margin, 60% to 33%, whereas Obama leads among Republicans (11% of the sample), 57%-37%.

    Great! It's a closed primary (5.00 / 1) (#49)
    by goldberry on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 04:23:14 PM EST
    No matter how you slice it, there will be more Democrats at the polls and some of those Republicans that reregistered as Democrats are women- voting for her.  ;-)

    Parent
    Actually, It's Mostly Open (4.00 / 1) (#59)
    by The Maven on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 05:18:02 PM EST
    From what I can see, any registered voter can show up on primary day and request to vote in the either party's primary, but a notation is then made and becomes a public record.  Someone who is a "known partisan" can be challenged at the polls based on a presumption of prior voting behavior (this is presumably very tricky, and could potentially get quite ugly).  The Indiana Code provides:
    IC 3-10-1-6
    Eligible voters
         Sec. 6. A voter may vote at a primary election:
            (1) if the voter, at the last general election, voted for a majority of the regular nominees of the political party holding the primary election; or
            (2) if the voter did not vote at the last general election, but intends to vote at the next general election for a majority of the regular nominees of the political party holding the primary election;
    as long as the voter was registered as a voter at the last general election or has registered since then.
    I did see some media coverage about how this could play out, and a quick Google search turned up a number of discussions about this point.

    Parent
    "Three weeks until the primary..." (5.00 / 2) (#32)
    by dianem on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:53:12 PM EST
    Let's not get too excited. A lot can happen in 3 weeks. The Wright depression lasted just a few weeks, and there is no reason to believe that this scandal will last any longer. Three weeks is a long time in politics.

    Don't try to rain on my hopes for change! (5.00 / 1) (#34)
    by madamab on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:57:36 PM EST
    sorry, couldn't resist the snark! :-)

    Seriously...the only reason the Wright thing is over is because HRC won't talk about it or use it against Obama.

    She IS talking about these remarks, and so is McCain.

    They will not go away.

    Parent

    These things don't just disappear though (5.00 / 1) (#37)
    by diplomatic on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 04:00:29 PM EST
    They keep piling on in the mind.  It's like there's an expiration date on thought and memory and after 3 weeks we have all forgotten about Wright or Bosnia-gate, etc.

    In your comment you say: "there is no reason to believe that this scandal will last any longer."

    Really?  Why would you possibly come to that conclusion.  All over the place I see reasons why this discussion of Obama's clingy comments is still raging.  You may believe it will go away, and you may be right but you cannot honestly post that there is NO reason to believe it will last longer.

    Parent

    I was just shocked (5.00 / 1) (#35)
    by facta non verba on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:59:31 PM EST
    listening to MSNBC when for a full segment they launched into Obama. His comments seem to have legs. On CNN International, they too are covering the remarks and they are not too favourable.

    I saw this poll which has Clinton up 20 points up from a dead heat a week ago. Apparently Obama's multi-million dollar ad spend was for naught. Good thing he collected $2.7 million in the Bay Area.

    http://americanresearchgroup.com/

    What MSNBC show was that? (none / 0) (#39)
    by diplomatic on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 04:03:20 PM EST
    And who was hosting?

    Parent
    It's MSNBC International (5.00 / 1) (#46)
    by facta non verba on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 04:13:14 PM EST
    and it was a female anchor but the reports were by regular MSNBC anchors. I am in Colombia currently so the cable news is slightly different. Still we get the main US cable news shows.

    If you read Spanish, here are Colombian reports on the US election:

    http://www.eltiempo.com/internacional/eleccioneseu2008/home/index.html

    Colombians are fascinating with the US elections though very perturbed by the attacks on Uribe and the FTA. Still yesterday at a luncheon all I was asked is who is going to win.

    Parent

    Obama Better Get Ready (5.00 / 1) (#50)
    by bob h on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 04:24:45 PM EST
    to get onto bended knee to ask for the VP slot.  Its not on for 2008; hopefully in 2016.

    i actually feel a little sorry for Obama. (5.00 / 1) (#53)
    by MarkL on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 04:42:39 PM EST
    I do think he has a lot of political talent, but boy he got and took some horrible advice when he decided to run this year. He shouldn't be ruined by a defeat, and I am sure that Hillary will try to let him lose gracefully if it comes to that.
    VP slot? Not so sure about that one, now.

    Parent
    I think he (5.00 / 1) (#61)
    by Lil on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 06:57:09 PM EST
    should have waited too, but we should not too cocky. He's been teflon so far. And she needs at least the popular vte; that's a lot to ask for at this point, but I'm hopin'.

    Parent
    interesting (5.00 / 1) (#60)
    by kempis on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 05:52:00 PM EST
    Big movement away from Obama and toward Clinton among men and young voters.

    Text of her new ad in PA (5.00 / 1) (#62)
    by ruffian on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 07:07:45 PM EST
    I love that they used the quote with the  'cling'  and not the 'bitter'.

    HRC: I'm Hillary Clinton and I approve this message.
    Anncr: Barack Obama said that people in small towns "cling to guns or religion...as a way to explain their frustrations..."

    Woman 1: I was very insulted by Barack Obama.

    Man 1: It just shows how out of touch Barack Obama is.

    Woman 2: I'm not clinging to my faith out of frustration and

    bitterness. I find that my faith is very uplifting.

    Man 2: The good people of Pennsylvania deserve a lot better than what Barack Obama said.

    Woman 1: Hillary does understand the citizens of Pennsylvania better.

    Woman 3: Hillary Clinton has been fighting for people like us her whole life.
    Saw the start of Olberman and (5.00 / 1) (#63)
    by kenosharick on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 09:12:22 PM EST
    he claims everything is going Barack's way- that he is getting a bump out of this "gaffee" and Obama is soaring!!! He also flat out lied saying Hillary was booed today- she clearly was not.

    Probably Overstates Clinton's Support (4.66 / 3) (#26)
    by BDB on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:48:07 PM EST
    The poll was done over the weekend as Obama was getting hammered over his SF comments.  Unless he digs himself in deeper somehow or makes a new gaffe, I'd expect that to dissipate some before the election which isn't until May 6.

    Still, it probably does give an idea of what could be possible for Clinton in Indiana, even if I don't think it's probable.  

    Well you could say this is also before a debate (5.00 / 2) (#30)
    by diplomatic on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:52:07 PM EST
    There's all kinds of known unknowns and known knowns, etc.


    Parent
    I haven't seen much sign that he's (5.00 / 2) (#31)
    by Anne on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:52:48 PM EST
    loosening his grip on that shovel he's been holding, and the hole looks bigger every time he tries to explain what he really, REALLY meant to say.

    Parent
    Probably (5.00 / 2) (#42)
    by cmugirl on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 04:08:14 PM EST
    But if she does well in the debate and wins big in PA, there could be a momentum factor going in. NC could tighten up, and if that happens, then as Detroit Red Wings announcer, the great Mickey Redmond say, "Bar the door Katie!"

    Parent
    A lost vote (1.00 / 3) (#51)
    by SAINTIXE56 on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 04:32:10 PM EST
    Obama will probablynot be the nominee, Clinton will be. Rejoice.
    For me , Ishall keep the extra $1300 I had saved tu spport to the max, Obama.
    Now shall I give that money and my vote to Clinton. Naaahhh.
    Clinton is playing dumb, Clinton keeps on carrying the charade all is well a,d carries on denying the truth.*
    Well , carry on denying, sweetie, because Iraq war and Bin Laden , and the Recession - today London stock exchange advised the brits they were entering into financial storm as bad as the Depression- are at our doors.
    SEE YOU IN 2012 you all, by then you will have all repent; but it will be way too late

    All that lead from one little gaffe? (none / 0) (#1)
    by Lora on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:18:11 PM EST
    Wow.

    wasn't that little (5.00 / 6) (#3)
    by angie on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:21:51 PM EST
    us Americans in the "fly over states" may be illiterate, barefoot, gun-loving, Jesus freak hillbillies, but we know when we're being spoken down to.
    See, I'm too dumb not to end my sentence with a preposition.

    Parent
    Insulting an entire class of Democrats? (5.00 / 2) (#9)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:30:06 PM EST
    That's not a little gaffe.

    Parent
    Agreed (5.00 / 3) (#12)
    by diplomatic on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:34:16 PM EST
    but it goes beyond insulting just Democrats.  Many of those Democrats in small-town Pennsylvania also surely have Republican/Independent and non-affiliated friends, family, and neighbors

    Obama's remarks will get around through word of mouth and there is still time before April 22nd.  

    Parent

    he didn't just insult dems... (5.00 / 1) (#21)
    by americanincanada on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:38:07 PM EST
    he insulted every person in a small town...

    Parent
    Chances are the gaffe isn't even (5.00 / 1) (#28)
    by RalphB on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:50:13 PM EST
    reflected in that poll yet.  I imagine it will get worse for him, instead of better.

    Parent
    Not Sure (none / 0) (#2)
    by Marvin42 on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:20:58 PM EST
    Interview 4/11 - 4/13, so I would assume it would have some, but not all, of the impact of the comments.

    Parent
    Wow! I hope (none / 0) (#6)
    by bjorn on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:27:36 PM EST
    she can hold this lead. I read somewhere that he was making inroads with women.  Anything in this pole to suggest that is wrong or right?

    Well, if he is, I'm sure he'll insult us (5.00 / 0) (#19)
    by nycstray on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:37:48 PM EST
    (again) soon.  ;)

    Parent
    Well Done... (none / 0) (#58)
    by AmyinSC on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 05:05:35 PM EST
    Good one!  Cracked me up...

    Parent
    I think it was with men (5.00 / 1) (#24)
    by diplomatic on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:39:32 PM EST
    I remember reading something or other yesterday that Obama was making inroads with men, but not women.  It may not matter at this point.  Those roads now are covered with debris after a bitter mudslide.

    Parent
    this could be the first indiction (none / 0) (#36)
    by Turkana on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:59:57 PM EST
    of the bittergate effect. of course, it could be as with wright, and the effect will quickly fade. but this is the first credible pollster to poll an upcoming state since san francisco.

    There's a reason Hillary is pushing this (5.00 / 1) (#40)
    by andgarden on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 04:06:14 PM EST
    and why she always takes care to mention Indiana in addition to Pennsylvania when she does.

    Parent
    it will be VERY interesting (5.00 / 2) (#45)
    by Turkana on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 04:09:51 PM EST
    to see if this has legs in montana and south dakota. again, though- it could quickly fade. then again, the obama camp seems much more worried, this time.

    Parent
    They do seem very worried (5.00 / 3) (#48)
    by facta non verba on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 04:18:16 PM EST
    it is interesting to see the tact that he is choosing to take. I'm the outsider, they are the Washington insiders who are out of touch.

    This not the first time Obama has been charged with being out of touch. Remember his arugula comments back in Iowa on July 27, 2007?

    I glanced at the Huff Post and they are all besides themselves scurrying to undo the damage. But they are largely preaching to the converted, what matters is how the local news covers this.

    Parent

    they try to call it "bitter' when really (5.00 / 1) (#52)
    by dotcommodity on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 04:36:10 PM EST
    its the "clinging to guns and religion" that is hitting the dealbreaker:" the one thing no  Democrats should ever say if they want to woo  Rpublicans and Independants. He said the dumb thing for his "bipartisan" campaign.

    All his spokes-henchmen are pretending that its "bittergate" as in "How dare that evil minx attack him for just saying Americans are bitter?"

    Parent

    I Think It's the Clinging To (5.00 / 1) (#56)
    by BDB on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 04:54:56 PM EST
    anti-immigrant antipathy and hostility towards people who don't look like them.  

    Which are things that the media and Clinton haven't even focused on, they've been going after the guns and god, but I suspect if this sticks, it will be the implication that all these folks are racist xenophobes that does it.  Because Obama can talk about clinging to the good things in bad times, but that will not explain away the clinging to anti-immigrant antipathy and not liking people who don't look like them. Those are not exactly good things to take comfort in during hard times.

    Parent

    They Do (5.00 / 2) (#55)
    by BDB on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 04:52:20 PM EST
    I can't help but wonder what their SDs are telling them.  I don't think any politician could read his quote and not immediately think, "idiot!"  And that's true even if they don't think he meant what he seemed to say.

    I'm sure he wants to try to fix this problem so it doesn't hurt him in the upcoming primaries.  But the real thing he has to do is prove to SDs that this was an aberration and that he isn't some rookie who is not ready for prime time.  Because even if he doesn't get blown out in the upcoming primaries, if the SDs think he's going to drag down them or the party in November, he's toast.

    Parent

    I am here in Montana and trying to (5.00 / 2) (#57)
    by athyrio on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 04:58:19 PM EST
    talk this up every chance I get...I have so far talked to two women, one elderly who adores Hillary and one mid age that didn't like any of them, but I think I changed her mind....However the guys out here can tend to be sexist particularly the ranchers....:-)

    Parent
    Hillary picked up a superdelegate (5.00 / 2) (#64)
    by eleanora on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 09:15:11 PM EST
    in Montana today. Bill Kennedy is the Yellowstone County Commissioner and very well respected in the state party. Won't affect the younger voters in Missoula and Bozeman, but will probably have some sway with the rest of the Dems here.

    "Kennedy said Sen. Obama's remarks last week at a San Francisco fundraiser solidified his support for Sen. Clinton...

    "In Montana, going to church or going hunting is part of our heritage, not something we 'cling to' out of bitterness or frustration," Kennedy said.  "Sen. Obama showed a real disconnect with rural Montana.  It might work to look down on us from San Francisco, but it won't sell when he comes back to Montana."

    link

    Parent

    Yup (none / 0) (#47)
    by madamab on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 04:15:42 PM EST
    it reinforces her narrative as the working-class champion, which is backed up by the votes she is getting.

    Parent
    SUSA IN Poll: Clinton By 16 | 64 comments (64 topical)

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