The Q poll has Obama doing much better than most other polls. The internals tell all:
White voters for Clinton 57 - 37 percent, compared to 56 - 38 percent last week;
Black voters back Obama 86 - 8 percent, compared to 75 - 17 percent
60-40 with white voters is a terrific result for Obama. As well as he can do. This is, as I stated before, Obama's absolutely best possible result. A 5-6 point loss in Pennsylvania.
Doing our analysis, using SUSA turnout models (86% non black, 14% African American) and assuming white and other non-A-As break about the same I get this result:
Clinton 53, Obama 47. Will Obama get 40% of the white vote? that would be an amazingly good result for him next Tuesday. Q Poll says yes. I am very skeptical myself.
Ras buries his key findings:
Clinton leads by twenty-seven points among White Voters while Obama attracts 78% of the African-American vote.
I think Ras seems to predicting a 2-1 Clinton win with the white vote and an 85-15 win for Obama with A-As. For the sake of argument, I am going to make it 90-10 among A-As and 65-35 among non-A-As.
We do our SUSA math again and get:
Clinton 57, Obama 43. This seems realistic to me.
