home

Electability Again

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only

Atrios writes:

One place I decided to try to avoid going was to the land of the "electability" argument. . . . First I reject the idea that one should pick a candidate based on some imagined preferences of other voters. And second, there just isn't enough evidence out there to support the idea that either candidate is "stronger." People can have opinions about this, of course, but I don't think there's much of an argument to made either way.

As someone who has a preference solely based on who I think is more electable (due to the fact that there is, save for health care, not a dime's worth of difference between the two candidates on the issues), I have to quibble with Atrios. What would he have me base my preference on? Of course, it is only my opinion that Barack Obama is more electable, but I have no other issue to differentiate them on.

What has amazed me is the vitriol, a nice word would be passion I guess, that has come, from both sides, for two rather cautious, left center candidates who stand exactly the same on the issues (save for health care) and in the mainstream of the Democratic Party. There is nothing that I have seen that makes one preferable to the other, other than the electability calculus. So I disagree with Atrios on this.

< Mason Dixon PA Poll: Clinton 48 Obama 43 | Clinton Winning Big Among Bowlers In PA >
  • The Online Magazine with Liberal coverage of crime-related political and injustice news

  • Contribute To TalkLeft


  • Display: Sort:
    Mercenaries (5.00 / 16) (#1)
    by Kathy on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 09:50:35 AM EST
    school vouchers, abortion as a "wrenching moral choice," embracing past republicans, destroying the democratic brand, the "sanctity of sexuality"...

    More than a hair's width to me.

    Don't Forget Social Security Is On The Table (5.00 / 14) (#2)
    by MO Blue on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 09:58:04 AM EST
    if Obama is elected. Also, didn't he come out in support of abstinence only sex education just recently.

    Parent
    yes, Shakespeares sister covered the (5.00 / 3) (#55)
    by dotcommodity on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:12:40 AM EST
    Science Debate...it was very revealing - well, actually it was a Faith Debate, but you go with the debates you have, not the debates you might wish you have...:-)
    But both managed to twist it to get out their messages to this evangelical Messiah college audience:

    Hillary: Republicans have stolen "faith", many religions are really about works, not faith, but she put it so gracefully you could easily miss the criticism of that party that does not adhere to The Golden Rule, but is all about YOYO.

    Obama: More Bush policy on abstinence

    Parent

    Hair's width (5.00 / 8) (#3)
    by RalphB on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:00:51 AM EST
    You could drive a truck through their differences in policy details and the devil is always in those details.

    Just getting out of Iraq, no matter what the generals may advise, is a large difference to me.  I also know what to expect from a Clinton admin and the same sure can't be said for Obama.

    As Jeralyn has said, better the devil you know than the devil you don't.

    Parent

    Drive a truck on Ethanol through the differences (5.00 / 5) (#66)
    by dotcommodity on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:33:01 AM EST
    Her clean energy policy follows the Al Gore, NRDC, Pew climate etc and gives equal weight to all the Socolov Pacala wedges to solve it. His is designed by his advisors who are two ethanol lobbyists, and a nuke power CEO, and devotes paragraphs of detail to ethanol, 'clean coal' and nuke power, but precious little to solar and wind development...go read his clean energy plan at his site, then hers.

    Its the fine print voters who see the difference between their policies.

    Oh, and his ads in PA right now say he voted to repeal the CheneyBush oil bill, but so did Hillary so how does that distinguish him from her?, ...as did virtually every other Democrat, at least 6 times last year, in various attempts to kill off the fossil subsidies that were in it.

    And why did we need to repeal CheneyBush?

    Because some Democrats crossed over and voted to subsidies dirty fossil fuels in 2005 (like Obama.)

    Judgement? I am not seeing it.

    Parent

    Also, Obama Sponsored A Liquified Coal (5.00 / 1) (#73)
    by MO Blue on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:48:18 AM EST
    bill in the Senate in Jan. 07 that Gore stated for the record was horrible. He withdrew his support in Jun 07 when he determined it might hinder his primary run.

    Parent
    Politics? (none / 0) (#103)
    by dotcommodity on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 01:47:01 PM EST
    Yeah, back then he cared about what low info old women like me thought!

    I lobbied him to change his terrible vote!

    well, along with the NRDC, the Sierra Club, etc, etc etc...

    Parent

    PLEASE (5.00 / 2) (#4)
    by sas on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:01:41 AM EST
    tell me more about Obama and Social Security.  I watched the debate the other night when they were talking abouthow to handle this.

    I liked her answers better, and I have also read about one of his advisors promoting privatization.

    Info please.....

    It's true ... (none / 0) (#68)
    by Inky on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:37:16 AM EST
    The adviser in question was Jeffrey Liebman. RonKSeattle wrote a great little piece on him a while back. Here it is.

    Parent
    I don't know why you (5.00 / 7) (#5)
    by Serene1 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:03:12 AM EST
    tout this electability argument wrt Obama. I would rather go with - is he a good Democratic candidate - and on that Count I would say No.

    His inexperience is a big big liability. On top of that till date, he has no record whatsoever of having fought for or worked for causes that are important for Democrats.
    A nytimes report clearly stated that Obama mostly didn't take a stand on issues lest he left a paper trail. is that a strong or courageous candidate by any count?

    You would argue that even Bill Clinton hardly had any experience - true. But see the country now and see the country when Bill took over. There is a big difference. Right now more than ever the country needs an able experienced hand to guide it through the mess it is in. Obama's on the job training may prove to be a very expensive exercise for the Country ath this stage after Bush's on the job training. And the last thing we need now is an indecisive candidate who till date didn't have the strength to make a stand on any issue besides vague generalities.

    Right now the country needs Hillary. She is the most capable and best qualified for the job. McCain or Obama each would be a disaster.

    Well WJC had 8 years... (5.00 / 6) (#9)
    by smott on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:08:08 AM EST
    ...of executive experience as Gov. That counts for something I think.

    Honestly I've not seen anything from BO that makes me think he would push hard for policy change. Do we have any examples of what he's done as Senator?  He's seemed cautious at best to me.

    HRC seems to have more political courage and I think that's a big difference.

    ANd doesn't the latest SUSA electoral map show HRC comfortably ahead now and BO behind?....

    http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/4/17/222510/938

    I think if BO gets the nom we're f-cked.

    Parent

    12 years. He was Governor from 78 to 80 and (5.00 / 3) (#14)
    by tigercourse on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:09:41 AM EST
    from 82 to 92. He also had two years as an AG.

    Parent
    Bill Clinton (5.00 / 6) (#12)
    by Kathy on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:09:15 AM EST
    had been a governor for years--one of (if not the) most senior governors in the country.  He had a lifetime of experience working for the democratic cause.

    Clinton's biggest electability argument: the press is against her, the elites are against her, the party echelon is against her...and she keeps winning.  Obama's only "positive" vis-a-vis electability is that he enjoys media darling status.  If that is all that he has to fall back on, he will be eviscerated in the ge.

    Parent

    Another way to look at electability (none / 0) (#98)
    by sander60tx on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 01:23:27 PM EST
    is to look at his superior campaign organization and fundraising capability.  It was on those two factors that I voted for Obama on March 4th.  HOWEVER, after what has happened in the past month, I would not vote for him now if I had another chance (though I certainly would vote for him in the general election against McCain).  I have given money to Clinton twice, but none to Obama.  

    Parent
    but is that him or his (5.00 / 2) (#104)
    by dotcommodity on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 01:53:04 PM EST
    handlers?

    Certainly the campaign has been run like an excellent astroturf "campaign" but as a siegel notes  in his diary today, there are many similarities in the ABEC (Americans for "clean coal") campaign and Axelrod's newest astroturf campaign.

    So I say, fossil interests are not giving up their stranglehold on the planet, with the end of BushCheney.  

    Parent

    Unfortunately For Obama (none / 0) (#109)
    by MO Blue on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 02:00:23 PM EST
    there are no caucuses in the general.

    Parent
    Yeah...but (none / 0) (#113)
    by Stellaaa on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 02:05:27 PM EST
    you would think with all that he would have been womping Hillary by now, but they are in a dead heat and he is struggling, what does that tell you?  

    Parent
    I agree... (none / 0) (#132)
    by sander60tx on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:07:35 PM EST
    his organization was far superior to hers in my area of Texas and he won easily here in the Dallas-Fort Worth area.  However, he could not woo the more rural areas of our state, which are considerable.  I think one of the reasons we don't see him clobbering her more is due to demographics.  Also, negativity does not work well for him.  His "hope" message gets drowned out when he is on the defensive.  His own negativity seems hypocritical.  In the beginning, he seemed invincible and now, not so much.  One pundit today said he lacked "graciousness."  I wonder if he been less arrogant and condescending to Clinton (e.g., "she's getting desparate") if more people would have been ready for this to end.  But everytime I heard him make one of those type of remarks, it made me want to support Clinton because I really want her be treated with respect.  

    Parent
    What do we do if BO is the candidate? (none / 0) (#10)
    by Shainzona on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:08:16 AM EST
    Then the choice is only between two disasters?

    I know what I will do.  But I wonder what you think.

    Parent

    If Obama is nominated, I will vote for Obama (none / 0) (#21)
    by jerry on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:15:15 AM EST
    I did find an interesting interview with Warren Buffett yesterday in which he supports both Obama and Clinton, but in which he did say that of all the Republicans, McCain would be the one he would want to lead.

    Now the difference between me and Buffett, is regrettably, more than a hair's width....  But he's often a very progressive, very smart, very common sense progressive.

    (One of these days the right will link him more strongly to Hitler, just as they've tried to do with Soros.)

    But I'll eagerly vote for Obama and hope that what his supporters say is true.  (But I may have a few giant "I told you sos" in quickly deployable fashion stuffed into my attic, ready to go on a moment's notice.)

    Parent

    I found it interesting (5.00 / 1) (#30)
    by Kathy on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:21:35 AM EST
    that during this last debate, Obama told the same "story" about how a wealthy man pays less tax than his secretary, but he no longer mentioned his friend Warren Buffet.

    The lack of the name-drop kind of tickled me, actually.  Made me think maybe the breeze I'm feeling is the wind changing for Clinton.

    Parent

    I'll vote for him (none / 0) (#67)
    by dotcommodity on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:36:18 AM EST
    but first I plan to influence a very important Super Delegate who emails me weekly, to demand more than just "a" seat at the table....

    Democrats have got to get control of the agenda.

    Parent

    If Obama is the nominee (none / 0) (#106)
    by stillife on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 01:57:13 PM EST
    I don't know what I'll do in November.  I'm weighing my options.  I'll have to see what his "tone" is.

    Parent
    He assumes we will vote for him (none / 0) (#116)
    by nycstray on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 02:16:34 PM EST
    I'm assuming I won't. He seems to have already counted it, so I guess I don't need to bother  ;)

    Parent
    wow - have you seen MyDD? (none / 0) (#88)
    by Josey on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:41:50 PM EST
    The 2008 Poll Watcher (top of page) has changed considerably during the past week - to favor Hillary!
    Perhaps a screen shot should be sent to ALL the SDs?
    Betcha Obama's camp did when he was ahead.
    lol

    Parent
    how do they get those numbers? (none / 0) (#107)
    by dotcommodity on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 01:58:13 PM EST
    I clicked on them and every state looks simply horrible for both Clinton and Obama against McCain...

    Parent
    What does the word "win" mean? (5.00 / 6) (#6)
    by Shainzona on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:05:44 AM EST
    The Obamanation has been busy spinning what Hillary will have to do to actually "win" PA...when I last checked, it meant she would have to get 100% of the vote...but that aside, here is an interesting comment that Paul Lukasiak made in a post last night at Taylor Marsh.  

    "Party pros/superdelegates don't look at margins, they look at exit polls -- they don't care how many votes you get, its where you get them from that matters, and if you can't get them against Hillary Clinton, you're not going to get enough of them against John McCain."

    Atrios disagrees, obviously.

    But I can't help but wonder...with the ton of money, the favorable press and the adulation of Obamacons, why hasn't BO knocked the little lady off yet (you know the one I mean...she throws kitchen sinks, china (not China!), the buffet and other stuff at him and is petty and trivial)??

    Isn't that telling us something about his electability?

    I tells me he will not... (5.00 / 5) (#49)
    by Salo on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:56:08 AM EST
    ...do very well in Ohio Penn Florida Missouri.

    This isn't about electability it's a pattern of underperformance in the key demographic we need in 2008.

    He's dodging the question about why he's got his ass kicked in the demos we need to win to carry off a victory in November.

    He should be asked to explain himself.

    Parent

    Wasn't Cling/Bitter born out (5.00 / 2) (#81)
    by nycstray on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:07:28 PM EST
    of his explaining himself not getting those voters?

    Parent
    haha (5.00 / 1) (#85)
    by Kathy on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:19:38 PM EST
    No Quarter calls it Crackerquiddick.

    Parent
    Crackerquiddick - exactly!! (none / 0) (#94)
    by Josey on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 01:11:10 PM EST
    Obama is still touting he'll "bring us all together" - but he can't even bring Dems together in states like CA, OH, FL, MA --- and as he explained on Billionaire Row - it's because "those" Democrats are racists!

    Oh - I'm sure the Dems in states Obama LOST - were happy to find out WHY they didn't vote for him!

    Because they're RACISTS!!   and worship their God and guns too much!

    Democrats accuse Republicans of being "racists" - but Obama says - "Democrats are racists"!
    Most likely, a GOP 527 has already made that ad for the general - regardless of the eventual Dem nominee.

    Parent

    you know what i find the most (5.00 / 2) (#120)
    by kangeroo on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 04:44:29 PM EST
    disgusting about his campaign's push on the racism theme?  it's how glibly and opportunistically he used it among the only, the ONLY, group for whom such a charge could be so overwhelmingly destructive:  democrats.  this is why i've referred to it as going "nuclear" in a democratic primary.  in my mind, there's nothing--and i mean nothing--worse he could possibly have done to a fellow democrat from an ethical standpoint.

    Parent
    likability and trust (5.00 / 2) (#7)
    by DandyTIger on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:05:47 AM EST
    on the issues that matter to people I think is a bit thing around here. My feeling is that pro Clinton people like her and trust that she is with them on issues that matter. Obama and his followers have made many pro Clinton folks not like him and have left many questions about what he is really for in terms of policies. So I think those are the overriding things that push many supporters (of both sides I assume) toward their candidate.

    Atrios actually does have a point in that it's nearly impossible to tell who will do better in the general given our history of candidates and how they poll vs. how they end up doing in the general. So an argument for supporting who you think would be the best president and who most closely aligns with your views is pretty valid.

    Obama's lack of clear policy stances make me pretty nervous. And especially is lack of strong stand on choice make me really nervous. That is, he has said he hasn't decided yet when life starts (at conception or some time later). At his age that's a bit unbelievable. As I've said before, if he decides it's at conception, then he's pro life. Given that possibility, I don't want him. But perhaps a 50/50 toss on that issue is better than McCain's certainly. But Clinton's certainly is better still.

    Having said all that, I think a lot of people have good instincts about electability and do base decisions on that too, and that's quite valid. For me, I'm convinced Obama can not win the presidency against McCain. I think Clinton has an uphill battle and only has a small chance of wining. Both candidates are suffering greatly, mostly thanks to the pro Obama people in politics and in the blogs, IMHO.

    If Hillary Had Not Been Branded A Racist, (5.00 / 3) (#19)
    by MO Blue on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:11:53 AM EST
    the uphill battle would not be anywhere as steep IMO.

    Parent
    And for that, Barack Obama should (5.00 / 9) (#23)
    by Shainzona on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:15:32 AM EST
    ...be ashamed of himself and his campaign.

    He took the lifetime work of two public servants who worked long and hard to improve race relations and trashed it.

    Barack Obama has, IMHO, set race relations back 50 years.

    And he should be ashamed of himself.

    Parent

    Politics of personal destruction (5.00 / 8) (#75)
    by oldpro on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:51:20 AM EST
    has reached its zenith with the Obama campaign's cynical, dishonest and vicious treatment of all things Clinton.

    Does what remains of the Democratic Party really expect me to reward that performance, that behavior?

    As a mom, that was never my response to bad behavior, nor as a teacher.  They expect me to change my stripes as a voter...as a Democratic activist who spent 50 years fighting this crap?

    Electability?

    Choose the behavior, choose the results.

    Parent

    thats just politics though: (none / 0) (#112)
    by dotcommodity on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 02:02:55 PM EST
    To win, he had to destroy her 90% ratings with African Americans, and so it was inevitable that he would have to find a way to make her out to be racist, even if to do that he had to apply tactics like the kos photoshop debacle which backfired by ousting all of us Demovcrats...its about the worst thing you can call a Democrat: a racist.

    Parent
    Ahhhh, yes...the 'new' politics of (none / 0) (#119)
    by oldpro on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 03:40:30 PM EST
    do anything to win.

    Wait...I thought that was Hillary's game!?  That's what they said....

    Yes...the worst thing you can call a Democrat and it's a G. D. lie.  Not 'just politics' in a Democratic primary.

    No.  Just no.

    Back to the future...feels like '68 to me.

    Parent

    agree with both of you, (5.00 / 2) (#121)
    by kangeroo on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 04:58:19 PM EST
    dotcommodity and oldpro.  branding a democrat as racist is going nuclear--and i'm not using the word "nuclear" in that flippant way i've seen it used by some obama blogs, either.  i mean there's nothing more destructive you can possibly do to a democrat.  it's not even character assassination; it's character obliteration.  i cannot forgive obama for this.

    Parent
    Agree with you so strongly-- (5.00 / 1) (#124)
    by jawbone on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 05:14:41 PM EST
    For a Democrat, there is nothing so deadly as to be accused of racism.

    For the Obama campaign to so cavalierly throw that term around shocked me when it first began to happen.

    Now, I realize for them it's "just politics."

    Very, very, very dangerous politics. A Karl Rove wet dream kind of "just politics."  He was never able to pry black voters away from the Democratic Party in an sizable numbers.  Obama and Axelrod must may achieve that for him.

    So it worries me a lot.

    Parent

    A Constitutional Law Prof (5.00 / 3) (#62)
    by santarita on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:27:00 AM EST
    As a constitutional law professor Obama knows what the stakes are on abortion.  He just wants to avoid the issue by saying he hasn't decided.

    Parent
    good point. (none / 0) (#122)
    by kangeroo on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 05:03:16 PM EST
    another cue that his platform is a sham.

    Parent
    I think he was being noncommital (none / 0) (#133)
    by sander60tx on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:26:19 PM EST
    on that question (when does life start?) so as to not offend the republicans who might vote for him but also not offend democrats too much either. Nevertheless, both Clinton and Obama said pretty much the same thing... abortion should be legal and rare.  Same with the "teaching abstinance" statement.  That was to appeal to conservatives, but he also said that sex education should include information on how to protect oneself (i.e., contraception).  I guess some people would equate that with "triangulating" (in order to achieve "unity").  

    Parent
    like all of his "present" votes? (none / 0) (#136)
    by kangeroo on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:22:28 PM EST
    the issue for me is not why is he saying what he's saying, but instead why the hell is he courting REPUBLICANS so aggressively in OUR primary?  that's my point.  if he wants to court republicans and democrats exactly alike, tell him to get out and run as an INDEPENDENCE PARTY candidate--instead of invading and undermining our entire party's platform for his own selfish ambition.

    Parent
    On the issues, I'd say Obama is to the (5.00 / 3) (#8)
    by tigercourse on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:06:08 AM EST
    right of Clinton on Choice, school vouchers, broad economic issues and possibly gay rights (in that Clinton is clearly alot more comfortable with gay people and seems less inclined to smacking them around for political gain). He's to the left of her on gun control and possibly foreign policy (his positions in FP tend to vacilate a little).

    And the biggie...health care. (5.00 / 5) (#13)
    by Teresa on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:09:32 AM EST
    Health care is HUGE (5.00 / 5) (#35)
    by echinopsia on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:28:57 AM EST
    I don't know why BTD seems to dismiss it as an afterthought or minor issue. It's number one for me.  

    Even if I weren't put off by Obama's lack of experience and failure to strongly support Democratic issues, the health care thing is a deal-breaker.

    I mean, come on, he's saying he can change the tone in Washington (exactly what GWB said), create a new kind of post-partisan politics (which no one else has ever been able to do), "save" Social Security (which does not need saving), transorm foreign policy, and perform all other kinds of impossible things.

    But truly universal health care with mandates is too haaaaaaard.

    Parent

    Obama's done irreparable damage to the issue (5.00 / 2) (#101)
    by Dawn Davenport on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 01:42:08 PM EST
    By framing it in right-wing language such as "mandates" and "garnishments," he's likely killed the opportunity for Dems to follow the will of the people and institute meaningful healthcare reform, no matter who ends up elected as president.

    Two-thirds of Americans want universal healthcare even if it means paying higher taxes to get it, but Congress has lagged on the issue, offering tepid do-nothing solutions like health savings accounts.

    This is an issue that could have carried Dems into the White House in a sweep this year. But thanks to Obama's framing--and his willingness to give the private insurance industry a "seat at the table"--that's appearing less likely.

    Parent

    and Obama deceives the public (none / 0) (#105)
    by Josey on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 01:54:43 PM EST
    with his claim that Hillary's plan would "force the poor to buy insurance"!
    Another Obama LIE.

    Parent
    One reason why (none / 0) (#134)
    by sander60tx on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:31:45 PM EST
    I don't take it all that seriously is that I feel that whatever plan is proposed to congress will undergo significant change by the time it is passed (if it passes).  The details don't matter so much at this point.  I do think that we should devote as much energy to electing more democrats to congress as we do to electing a democratic president.  

    Parent
    On Wright... (5.00 / 3) (#20)
    by Kathy on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:14:31 AM EST
    "Have the audacity to hope for that husband of yours. Have the audacity to hope for that home of yours. Have the audacity to hope for the homosexual of yours..."

    From his sermon, which inspired Obama to title his book the same way.  I'm sure if this gets mentioned, Obama will say he didn't recall that part of the sermon.  Or maybe he wasn't there?

    How many more groups does Obama have to stab in the back before they turn around and see what is really going on?

    Obama's past is an untapped goldmine.  Wright alone will sink him; religion is the lubricant that keeps American society moving, whether we like it or not.  And, as Jeralyn mentioned last night, Obama's handgun position is riddled with inconsistencies.

    Let's see...religion, guns, abortion, social security.  What other third rail can the repubs throw Obama onto?

    Parent

    I've been boycotting America Blog (5.00 / 1) (#29)
    by Shainzona on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:19:25 AM EST
    ...in addition to Daily Kooks, so I wonder what John and friends have to say about the good Rev. Wright on this quote...anyone know?

    I also read something this morning that made me laugh:  Obama Rule:  don't fight over what he says (words!) but look at what he means.  WORM!

    He seems to be a master at double-speak, doesn't he?

    Parent

    A Harvard Law graduate who (5.00 / 6) (#45)
    by FlaDemFem on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:46:36 AM EST
    can't say what he means in the first place? If he meant what he said, he would say what he means. The fact that he doesn't speaks volumes to me. Flim-flam man, snake oil salesman are the terms that come to mind for someone who can't, or won't, say what he means. Not what I want in the White House, thank you!!!

    Parent
    What? (none / 0) (#110)
    by stillife on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 02:00:46 PM EST
    Don't we all have a pet homosexual that we're audaciously hoping for? ;p I audaciously hope that no gay person votes for Obama.

    I read about that quote this morning on one of the blogs and I found it appalling, but not surprising.    It's just another nail in the coffin as far as I'm concerned.

    Parent

    A Fan of G H W Bush (none / 0) (#63)
    by santarita on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:29:36 AM EST
    Obama thinks that G H W Bush's foreign policy was a wise one.  Does that put him to the left of Clinton?

    Parent
    you know what's funny, (none / 0) (#125)
    by kangeroo on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 05:16:44 PM EST
    i'm very pro-gun-control.  but if i were to judge the candidates on that issue alone, hillary would still win my vote--because she lays out her case and makes an excellent, substantiated, well-reasoned argument for it.

    assuming obama is for tighter gun controls than clinton is, it just reflects more badly on his position that he won't even stick up for what he (presumably) believes in.

    so even as a single-issue voter where i'm supposed to be on his side, i can't respect him.  what a joke.

    Parent

    BTW (5.00 / 4) (#11)
    by sas on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:08:46 AM EST
    if we are going with electability, I think that while Hillary has weaknesses,  he is totally unelectable.

    Ayers, Wright, Rezko, clinggate,and who know what else...a la McGovern, Dukakis is and Kerry, he will be painted as a wimpy, elite, unpatriotic out of touch snob.

    Also, add in that at least a quarter of the  Democratic party doesn't

    agree - & Obama's baggage is much worse (5.00 / 1) (#38)
    by Josey on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:33:51 AM EST
    The GOP took down Kerry and Cleland, 2 decorated American war veterans.
    Obama's association with radicals like Farrakhan and his own pastor damning America allows the GOP to clean his clock against an American POW.

    There is nothing in Hillary's history that she's anti-America. (well except on pro-Obama blogs)

    Parent

    And HRC does not have this problem. (5.00 / 1) (#56)
    by rooge04 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:13:53 AM EST
    They simply cannot paint her as Anti-American or less-than patriotic if she's the nominee. Everyone knows it's absolutely not true.  Republican would not go after her in that way.  The only thing they have against her is leftover Clinton hatred from the 90s.  They will not succeed nor would they try to paint her as a wimpy Democrat.  It's obviously not true.  

    Funny that the the strongest, least-wimpy Democrat in years and years is a gasp! lady.  ;)

    Parent

    Another advantage Hill will have is (none / 0) (#61)
    by Serene1 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:24:37 AM EST
    that unlike her fight with Obama where even if she nudged him, his supporters screamed bloody murder, with McCain she won't have that problem and hence can retaliate back more effectively.


    Parent
    my larger point is (none / 0) (#47)
    by Josey on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:52:39 AM EST
    Electability - from whose perspective?
    Aren't we supposed to be choosing the best candidate to beat the GOP candidate?
    No! not now - because we know the GOP nominee is McCain - a decorated American POW and war veteran.
    Obama is "ahead" because the public was unaware of his assocations with anti-America Wright and Ayers. Check out rightwing talk radio and TV - "anti-America" label is much worse than "liberal" and "far left" and "a tax and spend liberal", etc.
    And Obama supporters, you don't need to remind me that Wright and Ayers are pro-America.


    Parent
    There's more than a dime's (5.00 / 5) (#15)
    by Edgar08 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:09:53 AM EST
    Worth of difference, as far as issues are concerned.  More than just the mandate issue re: Health Care.

    Why the need to repeat that piece of mis-information, I don't know.

    People have been trying to give you other things to consider for awhile now.

    typo (5.00 / 3) (#16)
    by sas on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:09:56 AM EST
    Also, add in that about a quarter of the Democratic party has said they won't support the guy.

    I like both so electability is key to me too (5.00 / 0) (#17)
    by barryluda on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:10:33 AM EST
    But if Obama can't handle the relatively modest challenges he's been getting leading up to PA, then he certainly won't be able to handle the full assault of the republican dirty tricks department.  Which is why, I think, PA matters so much.  Since I think Obama will win the nomination, I hope Obama is able to get this into the single digits and prove he's somewhat able to fight back.  If Clinton is able to maintain a double digit lead or especially expand on that lead, then I'll have to rethink whether Obama has what it takes to win in the GE.

    And I'm still wondering if BTD thinks the demographics will have the same impact in the GE that it's having in this race.  And, if so, what the impact would be for each of Clinton and Obama versus McCain.


    It appears the "you're (5.00 / 2) (#18)
    by oculus on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:11:32 AM EST
    likeable enough, Hillary," pretty much sums up the problem.  Polls consistently show Obama is more liked than Hillary is.  Competence is irrelevant.  Sad.

    I beg to differ, my friend (5.00 / 2) (#27)
    by Kathy on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:18:13 AM EST
    unless you mean his negatives are polling two or three points behind hers now.

    The "unlikability" of Clinton has been greatly exaggerated by the press.  Yet again, another example of our media cherry picking data.  They have brought Cheney-level reportage to the fourth estate, and like the Great Face Shooter himself, they are telling Clinton supporters to go f themselves.

    Here, have some smelling salts.  I know-I was shocked, too.

    Parent

    Wasn't Bush also more Likeable than Gore (5.00 / 3) (#28)
    by Serene1 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:18:45 AM EST
    and see where that Likeability has landed us in. Will people never learn. Sigh!

    Parent
    Here is a snippet from NYT (none / 0) (#50)
    by oculus on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:58:44 AM EST
    article about former Clinton supporters who have come out for Obama:

    But then the race got nasty in South Carolina, and Mr. Obama started winning and Mrs. Larson [a super d]started reconsidering. "There was something about Senator Obama that I found really fresh and exciting," she said. "I like how positive he has been." She also spoke of "the destructive negativity" of the Clinton campaign.


    Parent
    Obama makes grown people act like..... (none / 0) (#60)
    by Maria Garcia on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:22:16 AM EST
    ...schoolgirls.

    (And I don't mean that as a sexist swipe at schoolgirls. My Little Pony and such is quite age appropriate for them.)

    I guess that's what they mean by rock star quality.

    Parent

    More like school boys, IYAM (none / 0) (#97)
    by echinopsia on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 01:20:27 PM EST
    Who think girls are icky.

    Parent
    Speaking of Gore... (none / 0) (#82)
    by oldpro on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:08:47 PM EST
    I hope Hil and Bill are talking to Al and the DLC about the nuclear option if push comes to shove...that is, if it looks like Obama will actually get the votes for the nomination.

    Strikes me that's the only way to save the Party and elect a Democratic president after this incredibly toxic campaign where the electability of both Obama and Clinton are now in doubt.

    Hard to believe but I do think...perhaps only Gore can save us.

    Gore/Clinton.

    Works for me.

    Parent

    not for me, (none / 0) (#127)
    by kangeroo on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 05:29:54 PM EST
    and i worked on gore's 2000 campaign.  he's appearing more and more to me these days like a single-issue guy, when what we need is somebody that will take on the whole spectrum of issues with gusto.

    Parent
    If you recall.... (none / 0) (#131)
    by oldpro on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 09:10:26 PM EST
    he had quite a diverse and large portfolio as Bill Clinton's VP.  Yes, he's focused on one issue now but he would pivot on a dime to be president.  He'd have the luxury of giving the stuff he doesn't care much about to Hillary for the VP portfolio and lead the world in climate change himself...plus foreign policy, etc.

    Beyond that, my point is that Al is probably the only candidate who could bring in the winning coalition after this toxic nightmare...blacks, women, working people, the poor, anti-war....

    It probably won't happen but if Obama is likely to get the nomination...it should.  He won't win the general and the party whill be in a shambles.

    Parent

    Atrios is another Obama supporter (5.00 / 6) (#22)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:15:25 AM EST
    he thinks he's stealth, but he makes BIG, BIG hints.  But of course, he's not rabid (yet) like the others.

    He is suddenly realizing his candidate is gettting less and less electable.  Now he's saying electability isn't a justification for voting for a candidate.

    It's the typical stuff, but in a stealthier way.

    Oh, one of his BIG HINTS (5.00 / 4) (#25)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:16:53 AM EST
    his letterwriting/phonecalling calling campaign to ABC.  Never has he done such a think for Clinton.

    Parent
    letter writing/phone calling (none / 0) (#41)
    by Kathy on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:40:05 AM EST
    was not for Clinton, it was for women everywhere; we were sending a message that men in the media cannot get away with this kind of misogyny and abuse.  My calls weren't just for Clinton.  They were for all women.

    Women's rights are a core democratic value--at least they used to be.  It is reprehensible that the so-called progressive blogosphere ignored the call for action.

    Parent

    Right (5.00 / 1) (#42)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:42:37 AM EST
    that's what I meant.  He hasn't done anything like that for Clinton or for the misogyny (which would be a huge reason for such a campaign).

    Parent
    It's okay to be an Obama supporter.... (5.00 / 1) (#37)
    by jerry on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:32:58 AM EST
    What's not okay is to be a blind supporter of any candidate, or to delegitimatize and excommunicate the other candidate and supporters.

    I suspect Atrios is an Obama supporter, but so what?  Especially if he's in deep stealth mode.  He has no duty to be some totally objective neutral non-partisan blogger and he would have little value if he was.

    The question is not if he's an Obama supporter, the question is if his commentary seems "reality based" and useful.

    And usually, it is both.

    Obligatory: I am deeply in the tank for Atrios.  (But his "minions" and the way they bully his threads can mostly take a long hike.)

    Parent

    I didn't say there (5.00 / 1) (#43)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:44:28 AM EST
    was anything wrong with being an Obama supporter.

    I was saying that he's talking from the perspective of an Obama supporter.  That's all I've said.

    I do think that these bloggers need to come out with their druthers.  Otherwise shut up about the election because if you're going to be biased, we should know your preference.  

    Parent

    I'll say it (5.00 / 8) (#54)
    by echinopsia on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:10:00 AM EST
    There is something wrong with being an Obama supporter.

    Because if you don't see a difference between them on the issues (there are - and huge ones, including how well they understand and how committed they are to them) and you base your support solely on "electability" (which involves a LOT more than media darling status - like demographics), what else is there?

    Few if any Obama supporters can make the case for their candidate on facts. It's always on faith. It's always what he says he can do, not what he's actually done. He says he is not beholden to corporations; this is false. He says he's a new kind of politician; this too is false. It's astounding that his followers believe what he says in the face of ample evidence to the contrary.

    I've been told it's a generational thing; younger (Gen X and Y) voters are p*ssed at Boomers for "still caring about the issues of the 60s and 70s."

    Which is odd, because they're basically saying we haven't lost our youthful idealism and we still think civil rights, non-proliferation, the environment, women's rights, GLBT rights, etc., are not battles that have been won.

    And it's odd, too, because there's nothing wrong with fighting these battles until they are won. And while his followers believe that Obama is in fact on the right side of these issues, his words and his record signify that he is not solidly so. He's not willing to expend "political capital" on them.

    This is the paradox: his followers hear what they want to hear and see what they want to see, no matter what he says or does. That's what is wrong with being an Obama supporter.

    Parent

    electability (5.00 / 1) (#58)
    by Kathy on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:16:12 AM EST
    here is the question I have for Obama supporters:

    If Clinton loses the nom, she'll go back to the senate and take on a stronger leadership role.  It's widely agreed that she'll do this, and many O supporters have even suggested that the senate majority leader job will be a nice consolation prize.

    So, the question is this: What happens if Obama loses the nom and doesn't take the VP slot?  Will he go back to being the junior senator from IL, a job which he himself has said is boring?  Will he finish his term and go on the speaking circuit?  What do you expect from this guy who you claim has set the world on fire should he not get the nom?

    Parent

    Important question BO MUST BE MADE TO ANSWER (5.00 / 2) (#65)
    by Shainzona on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:32:42 AM EST
    "If Hillary Clinton goes back to the Senate and they pass a UNIVERSAL Health Care Bill with mandates (e.g., Hillary's plan), WILL YOU SIGN IT?"

    I'd like to know.

    Parent

    I Also Want A CLEAR Answer On What Type (5.00 / 1) (#89)
    by MO Blue on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:46:28 PM EST
    of Supreme Court Justices he would appoint with examples.

    Parent
    Best question (none / 0) (#84)
    by oldpro on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:14:50 PM EST
    this cycle!

    Gotcha.

    Parent

    And there the other shoe drops. (none / 0) (#99)
    by Faust on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 01:28:03 PM EST
    There is something wrong with being an Obama supporter.

    This is the crux of the matter. Both sides, at least those on both sides that have passed the cognitive dissonance threshold, believe there is something "wrong" with the other side.

    An indefensible statment for either side to make in my opinion. After such a statment, how can any dialogue proceed? It can't.

    Parent

    Sure it can (none / 0) (#117)
    by echinopsia on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 02:24:59 PM EST
    But Obama supporters don't often engage in it.

    The only arguments I have heard that are (nominally) not based on faith:

    • Look how well he's run his campaign. (GWB ran an excellent campaign, too, and used many of the same appeals that Obama does. Worst president ever)

    • His superior judgment in giving an antiwar speech (at an antiwar rally in an antiwar district. He then proceeded to not do anything to end the war once he was in the senate)

    • Does not take money from corporations. (Yes he does)

    • His health care plan does not "force" you to buy insurance. (But you are forced to buy it for your children, and when you get sick, you will be forced to pay fines for not having insurance when you can least afford to)

    *He offers us an opportunity to do things for ourselves. (Are "we" by ourselves going to end the war, get universal health care, repair infrastructure, fix the economy, end tax cuts for the rich, get pay equality, end the war? How?)

    Riverdaughter presented The HR Challenge

    Please go take it.

    Parent

    No. (none / 0) (#123)
    by Faust on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 05:11:26 PM EST
    After you lead with a statment that there is something wrong with Obama supporters, good dialogue is not likely to follow.

    If the goal is to win the hearts and minds of the opposing side it behooves both sides of the conflict to refrain from name calling and derisive inflamatory comments.

    In my opinion suggesting that there is something fundamentally wrong with all members of the opposing camp crosses that line.

    Perhaps you are sucumbing to hyperbole but my point is that there is simply no reason to go there.

    As for myself I currently ride around on the unity pony and have no interest in providing extensive pros and cons for either candidate.

    I currently regard them as both being weakened by this primary fight, with both having decent possibilities for winning the GE if the party manages to heal from the wounds of the primary.

    Parent

    from a purely meta viewpoint, (none / 0) (#128)
    by kangeroo on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 05:38:16 PM EST
    i'd normally agree with you.  but you see, i've come to see obama's 4-page memo (and countless other dirty tricks) as pearl harbor.  so...  i'm not in as amenable a mood to say there's nothing wrong with his supporters.

    Parent
    Fair enough. (none / 0) (#130)
    by Faust on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 06:18:35 PM EST
    And there are plenty of Obama supporters who feel the reverse. Between these two most polarized groups there is no further dialogue. Only name calling and retreats to respective echo chambers.

    So be it I guess. We will all have our opportunity to move on soon enough (I hope).

    Parent

    nah. i just got back from (none / 0) (#135)
    by kangeroo on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:10:38 PM EST
    having drinks with a friend and her boyfriend who's for obama, and had a great discussion with the bf--with whom i hadn't discussed this election yet.  no hostility or name-calling between us; just both curious, asking each other questions, and listening.  in my analogy, i think of him as like the majority of the japanese civilian population.  so it's not him but instead the navy of obamabots and their propaganda machine back at home that i'm worried about.

    Parent
    heh. (none / 0) (#137)
    by Faust on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 10:16:29 AM EST
    Well that's good to hear. It's my experience as well that things are considerablly worse on the internets than on the streets. When I was refering to "most polarized groups" I was refering to online zealots mostly.

    Still, I think the online hostility does mirror genuine sentiment, it's just off the web it's more diluted by people that aren't quite as over the top about their choices.

    Parent

    According to Kristen Breitweiser, Obama did (none / 0) (#129)
    by jawbone on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 06:06:36 PM EST
    nothing to fight against the war momentum after he gave his now famous speech. And when he began his run for the Senate he said there wasn't that much difference between his position at the time and George Bush's.

    Parent
    That's if they recognize they have druthers (none / 0) (#51)
    by jerry on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:04:26 AM EST
    Far more than many reporters who claim to be objective and claim the need to be objective, I think Atrios is an opinion leader and maker, and he probably really doesn't want that role.

    I think it's clear when reading Atrios what he finds important and what he thinks should be up to us.

    No one is without bias, and it's pretty easy to figure out where Atrios' are.

    ObNote: I am deeply in the tank for Atrios -- I do think he should run as a representative of PA.

    Parent

    Atrios is giving a poker tell. (none / 0) (#59)
    by Salo on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:19:32 AM EST
    lefties saw Kerry lose after he used the electability argument--so the argument is illogically nullified for ever.

    OTOH Kerry was the most electable candidate--Dean would have been crushed.  Just because Kerry lost doesn't mean he wasn't the best possible choice at the time.

    Atrios is therefore showing a lack of nerve with the hand he knows the party has been dealt. He knows Obama will have more of a struggle with the electoral college but he also knows that he can't say it out loud because it's UnPC to mention electability these days.

    He lost his nerve.  But I can't blame him, he's not at fault for what is happening.  I doubt he could change anything where Krugman has failed.

    The Orangemen would destroy him.


    Parent

    I didn't say there (none / 0) (#44)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:44:40 AM EST
    was anything wrong with being an Obama supporter.

    I was saying that he's talking from the perspective of an Obama supporter.  That's all I've said.

    I do think that these bloggers need to come out with their druthers.  Otherwise shut up about the election because if you're going to be biased, we should know your preference.  

    Parent

    What Atrios doesn't (5.00 / 3) (#26)
    by frankly0 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:18:09 AM EST
    seem to understand is that electability is only one aspect of a larger question about a candidate. The real point is that the very issues that define electability go to an equally crucial feature: the ability of the candidate, as President, to increase or at least maintain their popularity and clout -- and there are few things more important to the success of a progressive President than the political capital they can bring to bear in pushing for their policies.

    This is the exact problem I have with Obama. I'm at this point quite sceptical of his ability to win the general, given his radical baggage. But it's certainly possible he'll be able to do so, simply by riding the Democratic brand (a brand, I should say, he has had no hand in defining or promoting, but will only, instead, damage), which is still very strong and positive.

    But even if he is elected, his baggage hardly goes away. It continues to define his image, and everything he does as President will be colored by it. He will have to be on the constant lookout not to do things that might appear to tap into that image. He will be, in short, damaged goods, and will hardly be in a position to make bold progressive steps. And of course the most perilous possibility is that the negative image he would bring into the Presidency would be built upon in any case to doom his Presidency over the four years of his first term, and bring ultimate great embarrassment to the Democratic cause and brand by losing the election in 2012, as Carter did in his time.

    In brief, electability is a question of image, and image defines political capital. So ignoring electability could not be more wrongheaded if you have a sincere interest in seeing change come about.

    One other point (5.00 / 1) (#33)
    by frankly0 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:26:17 AM EST
    Atrios' assertion that electability is essentially unknowable is pretty silly.

    Look, it's certainly true that one can't know with 100% certainty who's more electable. But how is the question of electability inherently less certain than a million other reasons we might choose one candidate over another, most especially when the policy differences are not great (though I'd dispute that their health care plans are only trivially different)?

    If anything, at least with regard to electability, we have some kind of rational basis -- election results in primaries, exit polls, and other kinds of polls.

    What do we have when it comes to evaluating character, ability to bring about change, commitment to change, commitment to bring about a particular kind of change, judgment, etc., etc., in short all of the many things we consider "legitimate" concerns? Can the assessment of any of those be said to be more definitive than that of electability?

    So why treat electability as somehow uniquely unknowable, and therefore something we should ignore?

    Parent

    I agree with that point (5.00 / 1) (#39)
    by Edgar08 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:35:53 AM EST
    Or rather I think it's just been my experience that when I have tried to predict how a candidate will be perceived, received, or treated by the media, I've been wrong more often than not.


    Parent
    I reckon (5.00 / 2) (#53)
    by Salo on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:09:51 AM EST
    given the very narrow differences between Clinton and Obama based on Policy that thier biographies are the critical deciding factor.

    Given the small differences electability is a key decider.

    Democrats need to think outside their own perspective and have empathy for what a centrist swing voter actually sees.

    Kerry and Gore were very good candidates.  Kerry was probably the best candidate we could have fielded in 2004.  

    He was badly prepped for the swiftboat thing by his staff ( idon't think SBVFT was decisive though) , but even there he ran a very good campaign. We could have had Dean and been wiped out nationally.  Edwards would have been okay but would have lost because of the experience meme that would have been used on him.  Kerry was strong enough but he was always in trouble with a sitting President.

    Obama will have demographic reality to contend with and the baggage of divisive, radical and terroristic personas in his biography.  

    we know that a war hero bio insulated against the claims that Kerry was soft on terror--and still lost by a very close margin.So Obama will get it worse.

    I see Obama getting destroyed  by McCain and Clinton either losing close or winning by a comfortable electoral college margin.

    I don' see where Obama wins in the electoral college system. The numbers i've seen in Penn Missouri and Ohio make me cringe when I think about his candidacy.

    Parent

    The Problem (5.00 / 1) (#70)
    by santarita on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:42:56 AM EST
    In retrospect Kerry was a weak candidate, especially in 2004.  Yes, he was more electable than Edwards or Dean at the time.  But was Kerry, Edwards or Dean  the best that the Democratic Party could do?  

    Parent
    Kerry lost (none / 0) (#87)
    by bigbay on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:34:11 PM EST
    when he walked out and did that salute..he practically dared the Repugs to focus on his service record, and they did.

    Parent
    I would love to see your arguments... (5.00 / 5) (#31)
    by white n az on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:23:05 AM EST
    for Obama being more electable if it goes beyond 'media darling' status because that's the only argument I recall you ever making.

    Atrios has indeed been cautious but he seems to look at everything through an economics lens. I don't recall seeing Atrios ever tell anyone else what to think.

    As for vitriol from the various sides, I suppose that it couldn't be helped. Obama clearly saw the path to the nomination requiring him to eviscerate all things Clinton and he has a lot of complicit partners in that endeavor. While that may prove to be a successful primary position, it is a really poor long term strategy for the general election.

    There is another minor difference: (5.00 / 4) (#32)
    by WillBFair on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:24:49 AM EST
    accomplishment. Obama was AWOL in both Senate seats. And he has a shakey grasp of reality. His 'new politics' are Clinton retreads like healthcare or bipartisanship, old liberal cliches like camapign finance reform, or bizaare fantasies like converting the red Sates with Wright and Bittergate.
    The Clintons, meanwhile, reversed damages of three republican admins, turned deficit into surplus, created a vast economic boom, and improved just about every statistic in the book.
    The Obama Nation is still playing hardball, though, and I think it's time for us to do the same. We should demand that Florida and Michegon be either counted or redone. And the national party should pay for it. They are flush with money from corporate donors. And they are responsible to fix a problem they created by excluding the States in the first place.
    This argument should be made loud, clear, and over again until thousands of democratic voters have been included in the process.
    http://a-civilife.blogspot.com

    One good outcome (5.00 / 8) (#46)
    by Serene1 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:47:45 AM EST
    of pro Obama bloggers turning against the Hillary supporters is that it made us look at Obama more closely. Previously we were o.k. with him and definitely considered him better than McCain.

    Now after having observed him closely, having read up everything on him, we consider him as bad as McCain if not worse.

    Sorry BTD, but I disagree (5.00 / 5) (#48)
    by kenosharick on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:55:47 AM EST
    about the vitriol on "both sides." This is what the media does. The vicious name-calling is coming OVERWHELMINGLY from Barack supporters, with this behavior from relatively few Clinton backers. You make it seem as though it is 50/50. For example, compare the discussion here and on other more pro- Hillary sites to that on Obama sites such as americabog and kos. You never hear him getting called vicious names- on the Obama sites Hillary is called a bi*%#h or worse by every other poster. Just look at the reaction after he finally got a few tough questionds Wed. nite.

    Yes I agree (5.00 / 6) (#52)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:05:57 AM EST
    I never had any vitriol, until

    1.  Obama's supporters, in places like KOS started gang trolling people they disagreed with....until people like KOS said, essentially, if you don't like being gang trolled, then leave.

    2.  The media and their one-sided coverage was laughed about by jokers like those on the net.  

    3.  The KO's, Fineman's, Matthews, et al. Need I say more?

    4.  The throwing of healthcare under the bus.

    5.  And now, the Hillary is not a Democrat stuff.

    I'd have had no vitriol if this election hadn't stooped to pettiness.  I sincerely believe that people can disagree about issues.

    Parent
    What is actually happening (5.00 / 0) (#69)
    by waldenpond on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:42:55 AM EST
    is irrelevant under the Obama electability theory.  The 'theory' is that the media will continue to present the equality.  Media darling status will win out.  Negative ratings are only relevant if the media reports them.  Notice how the media presents polls when Obama is in the lead but tends to avoid mentioning Clinton in the lead unless she has lost the lead.

    Obama supporters can do the same to McCain in the GE.

    Check out the teevee this morning.  It is still: Clinton can't win, Clintonites are going to call for her to drop out is she loses IN, and finally, rest assured the media questions divisions in the party, but you will come together in the end. :)

    Sickly cute phrase of the morning.. once the nominee is official, there will be a honeymoon.

    Parent

    Electability (5.00 / 2) (#64)
    by Stellaaa on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:29:41 AM EST
    That is a hard one.  I think right now no one has an advantage.  Each one of the three has big flaws.  I think you will have to go with who people believe would make a better leader and is more experienced.  One on one, McCain vs. Obama I think McCain has an advantage.  Obama will not be able to hit on him as he did on a woman.  But I think on the McCain vs. Hillary, Hillary will come off smarter and more capable and McCain will look like a fool.  She will not blurr the lines.  People are ready for a clear Democrat and Democratic Agenda, this is the change they want.  They don't want the kool kid, they want competence.  All the other stuff is media hype. People are scared.  

    Instead of going after sexism (none / 0) (#72)
    by waldenpond on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:47:15 AM EST
    He will go after age.  Notice how, when Obama is going after the white male vote, his word choice changes.. kitchen sink, china, that he has been using in Penn... designed to remind men of the stereotype of the nagging woman.  Obama has the youth vote, he will keep pushing McCain's age as he has been doing.  McCain is toast if he ever gets caught taking a nap.

    The Democrat issues have been pushed aside.  They will not come back up.  The Dems and Repubs will vote party line and both Obama and McCain will move center to fight over the moderates and independents.  

    Parent

    Going After McCain On Age Is Bad Strategy IMO (5.00 / 2) (#76)
    by MO Blue on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:53:06 AM EST
    Obama already has the youth vote locked up but he is having major problems convincing the seniors that "He Is The One." Attacks on McCain on age will only IMO lose him more of that demographic.

    Parent
    I (5.00 / 3) (#78)
    by kenoshaMarge on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:58:18 AM EST
    mentioned this a time or two when someone was calling John McCain John McAged. Dumber than dirt some of these people. Seniors are a very large voting block. We always vote. Honk off the "geezer" vote at your peril.

    Parent
    My parents think (none / 0) (#79)
    by waldenpond on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:59:23 AM EST
    he is too old.  They are his age-active,healthy in great shape physically and mentally and think he is too old.  It's odd.  Maybe it's because the have friends who aren't so healthy and have lost some friends.

    Parent
    Some Seniors May Now Agree That He Is Too Old (5.00 / 3) (#83)
    by MO Blue on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:11:50 PM EST
    but push this meme too hard and that could change in a heartbeat if they start feeling resentful of how old people are portrayed.  

    Parent
    Appearing mean (5.00 / 2) (#90)
    by Stellaaa on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:47:06 PM EST
    I have a gut feeling that any attack on McCain will appear mean.  I know the guy has a nasty streak and you pick it up on the interview with Stephanopoulos, but contrary to popular belief, I have a feeling that Hillary can make him look incapable without demeaning him.  

    Parent
    appearing mean (5.00 / 2) (#96)
    by Kathy on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 01:17:38 PM EST
    I've thought that for a while now.  It'll look like O's beating up on an old grandpa.  I think it's quite telling that Clinton wouldn't do this sort of thing, primarily because she doesn't have to.  There are so many issues she can take McCain on head-to-head.

    I don't know about you, Stellaaa, but I am so sick of those articles in Newsweek, etc, waxing poetic about how polite and cordial an Obama/McCain ge match-up would be.  They would be true gentlemen and talk about the issues.  A healing balm to the nation, according to Jon Stewart.

    It's like they are living in an alternative universe.

    Parent

    When Bill said that (none / 0) (#100)
    by Stellaaa on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 01:28:49 PM EST
    remember, about how Hillary and McCain like each other, the boyz went off the deep end.  

    You are brave, I don't read any of that stuff Kathy.  I use TL as my filter.  

    Parent

    I must be dumber than Newsweek (none / 0) (#115)
    by cmugirl on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 02:14:58 PM EST
    Politico had an article last week or so (can't find the link right now) about 10 things Hillary can't say, but McCain and the Republicans will have no problem saying. Obama is already losing his "hope and unity" bit - McCain will be driving the truck and Obama will be the bug that ends up on the windshield, wondering what the heck happened.

    Parent
    Electability arguments (5.00 / 1) (#71)
    by myiq2xu on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:43:03 AM EST
    are for fringe candidates you agree with.

    You might agree with Ralph Nader (I do on some issues) but you don't vote for him because he's unelectable.

    BTW - Obama is NOT electable.

    Think "McGovern - Mondale - Dukakis"

    Then add Barack between Walter and Michael.

    electability and track record (5.00 / 8) (#74)
    by jackyt on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:48:53 AM EST
    First, if Obama's primary wins are achieved with a preponderance of votes coming from crossover republicans and indies (rather than committed dems), and in states that are not likely to turn blue in November, AND he has yet to defeat Clinton in the must-win big blue states, HOW DOES THAT MAKE HIM THE MOST ELECTABLE DEM?

    Second, Obama has hosts and hordes of new best friends. Where are his old best friends? Where are his "Harvard Law School Buddies for Barack"? Where is his "I Fought For Social Justice on the Streets of Chicago with Barack" contingent? Where are his "We Made a Difference Together in the State Legislature of Illinois" allies? Where are the "Barack Was Critical in Developing and Gaining Support for (whatever) Bill" Senate backers?

    I will not vote for someone just because more people like him than the person he is dissing.
    I will not vote for someone who "clings" to a fatally flawed policy stance (as Obama does with Health Care). I will not vote for someone who demonstrates repeatedly that he is dependent upon the unmitigated adulation of a crowd in able to "perform brilliantly", and falls flat on his face in an adversarial situation.

    After months of saying, "Of course, in November, I'll support the Democratic candidate no matter what", I won't. Another untried, untested, agreement demanding narcissist is not the answer to the incredibly difficult problems facing the U.S.

    Although (5.00 / 3) (#77)
    by kenoshaMarge on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:55:56 AM EST
    admittedly not liking Obama and not wanting him to be the nominee I can see the "electability" argument if he continues to be the "media darling".

    But don't you have to wonder about his electability when it seems that the majority of Democrats are voting for Hillary Clinton?

    Then add in that Obama and his supporters have insulted, dismissed and enraged large swathes of the Democratic base that just might not come home to the party if he wins the nomination.

     

    Plus the tracking polls aren't just Dems (5.00 / 1) (#93)
    by Lysis on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 01:07:25 PM EST
    Both Rasmussen and Gallup measure Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, a distinction that drives me up the wall because it's buried in the fine print.

    Parent
    My two cents: (5.00 / 6) (#80)
    by Mrwirez on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:00:53 PM EST
    Of the PA voters, almost half are registered republicans, I believe it is like 53-46 or close to it, in favor of the Dems. If BHO has alienated any of the blue collar white males, most of the women, and certainly the rural conservatives, dems and republicans. He will NOT win PA in November. My guess is he will win 90+% of the black voters and maybe 40% of the women in a general election. IMO, That is not enough. Two days ago in Pittsburgh Sophie Masloff, the former elderly, female, Jewish mayor of Pittsburgh, who lives in a hugely Jewish community endorsed Hillary Clinton. This woman is loved by all in Pittsburgh, and at first was not going to endorse either candidate. The Jewish community is a huge voting block for the Dems and now the Clinton campaign. Now throw in all of the labor unions who prospered during the Clinton years in western PA. I would guess 60+ plus percent of these mostly white men will vote for Clinton. This is not a good state for Obama in a primary or a GE. The same goes with Florida, Ohio, N.J.,Michigan. Barack Obama has a real GE problem. We all know S.C., Mississippi, Tenn., and those states will be red come November. If he wins the nomination, John McCain is the next president. The Strongest DEMOCRAT in the GE would be Hillary Clinton. Period

    It's really a question ... (5.00 / 2) (#91)
    by Robot Porter on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:50:00 PM EST
    of not what they speak for, but who they speak to.

    And this is not a mere matter of style over substance.  Americans are trained to read between the political lines, because elected officials rarely do exactly what they say.

    So politicians speak between those lines.

    I think Obama might have wrapped this whole thing up months ago had he been more comfortable reaching out the traditional Democrats.

    Conversely, I think Clinton wouldn't have the strength she does if she didn't speak so effectively to this group.

    And the vitriol exists largely in this nether world of suggestion.  What people think they mean,  based upon rhetorical style, rather than what they actually say or what positions they support.

    Electability (5.00 / 1) (#114)
    by Stellaaa on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 02:08:05 PM EST
    Ok, this is my big question BTD.  If he is so electable, why oh why is he not trouncing Hillary by now.  If he cannot get half or more than half of the Democrats to vote for him, what makes you all think in the GE he will get a swath of other voters to vote for him and win.  

    If you say people will vote against McCain, heck then that applies to Hillary.  I just don't see the Obama electability.  

    BTD, explain why you think that: (5.00 / 3) (#118)
    by FoxholeAtheist on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 02:36:49 PM EST
    "The Media will continue to coddle him [obama]".

    First, thanks and kudos to ALL the commenters upstream and down, who spelled out numerous details of policy/position differences between Obama and Hillary. That was instructive and a joy to read.

    I would add that Paul Krugman has done a number of columns explaining how Hillary is better  overall, especially on the BIG 3: Social Security, Health-care, and the Economy.  

    I trust that BTD will read respectfully, and closely, and modify his allegations about the lack of policy differences. I see now, how the 'no policy difference' meme has been an MSM mainstay, and it has worked to Obama's advantage: it has given him bogus cred on the issues and refocused the discussion onto the superficial crap about 'likability', 'charisma' that's been used to prop up the 'electability' meme.

    Now, BTD: your claim for Obama's greater electability is based on your belief that he will continue to be a "media darling". This is not a convincing argument. It's not even an argument, it's an unsubstantiated opinion; since, to my knowledge, you have never explained why, or how, you think Obama will retain this status in the GE.

    By my count, this is the fourth time I've asked you this question. You are under no obligation to respond (obviously). Personally, I don't know whether or not the media will continue to coddle Obama in the GE. But, apparently, you do. I'm betting that a lot of Clinton and Obama supporters would like to hear your reasoning on this.

    Frankly, given your absence of support for Obama's long-haul 'media darling' viability, I've come to the conclusion that you don't believe it - you're playing devil's advocate or something.

    *Apologies if I've missed one of your posts wherein you've already addressed the question. Peace.


    No difference, BTD? (5.00 / 1) (#126)
    by LCaution on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 05:28:22 PM EST
    Superficial agreement on general policies is not the same as "no difference".

    Others have already responded with concrete examples, but here's my cut: Competence and a willingness to fight.

    I haven't seen anything to suggest that Obama understands the issues as well as Hillary or - more important - is willing to fight for them.  Look at his career.  He gets into the Illinois legislature by using legal moves to get his opponents off the ballot. (Source: Chicago Tribune). His performance in the legislature? This is purely anecdotal (and therefore worth about as much as a plug nickel), but a couple I'm acquainted with who lived on campus in his district while he was in office never heard of him.  The bills his name was attached to once the Dems got control? Apparently all due to Emil Jones.

    His "present" votes (not the ones that were part of a Party strategy but those he made on his own judgment - including one in which his was the only "present" vote), his emphasis on a "new" kind of politics, of working with Republicans, of building a "new" coalition; the fact that he got into the Senate because of a meltdown on the Rep. ticket - all tell me that he doesn't much care about policy and, politically, has pretty much had his career handed to him on a silver platter.

    I happen to think Hillary has a better chance against McCain (not a slam dunk, just better) because in a debate she won't have to worry about offending his supporters, but he will have to worry about offending hers.

    However, taking the electability argument off the table - on the assumption that you are using it only because there is no other good arguments - how about the fact that Hillary has demonstrated that she works hard, knows the issues cold (she isn't likely to sign a bill not knowing what's in it), has been in Washington and the Senate long enough to know where the bodies are buried.

    Hillary is LBJ, tactics-wise; Obama is Reagan without 8 years of governing experience.

    voter suppression in FL/MI and possibly (2.00 / 1) (#24)
    by DandyTIger on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:16:50 AM EST
    white undecided in PA (from a previous post) I'll even concede are in his favor for electability. All's fair in love, war, and politics. And if he is best at dirty tricks, not counting votes, heck, even destroying democracy in the long run, then that can be counted in his favor as being more electable. So perhaps the nastiest bully is the one to go with. But we may also want to think about what may be the cost to our party and our country. I'm not saying he's that bad.... just saying.

    That's another disturbing Trend of Obama (5.00 / 1) (#34)
    by Serene1 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:26:22 AM EST
    disenfranchising voters rights.

    Previously he dienfranchised voters during his senate run:

    http://www.tigerdroppings.com/rant/messagetopic.asp?p=7615580

    The following quote from the above link is illuminating:

    Another candidate he eliminated, long-shot contender Gha-is Askia, now says that Obama's petition challenges belied his image as a champion of the little guy and crusader for voter rights. "Why say you're for a new tomorrow, then do old-style Chicago politics to remove legitimate candidates?" Askia said. "He talks about honor and democracy, but what honor is there in getting rid of every other candidate so you can run scot-free? Why not let the people decide?"

    In a recent interview, Obama granted that "there's a legitimate argument to be made that you shouldn't create barriers to people getting on the ballot."

    But the unsparing legal tactics were justified, he said, by obvious flaws in his opponents' signature sheets. "To my mind, we were just abiding by the rules that had been set up," Obama recalled.

    Parent

    Inconsistent (none / 0) (#36)
    by koshembos on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:29:04 AM EST
    At the beginning you preferred Obama because he wasn't subject to the Clinton Rules. Now it's his electability. What made you change your argument?

    Dude! (5.00 / 2) (#40)
    by Edgar08 on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:37:38 AM EST
    They're both the same argument.

    BTD is being consistent here.

    Parent

    Please Reconsider... (none / 0) (#57)
    by Exeter on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:14:14 AM EST
    You were definitely right about Obama's electability a few months ago, but that was before Wright, Ayers, bittergate, and the ummm-ahhh-dahbate. Plus your not fully appreciating the liability of Obama not having any of his negatives yet defined. (Yes, the media will be harder on Clinton, but the GOP will hit him and things like guns that will have a more dire impact on him that on Clinton, who can point to the common sense gun record of the Clinton years.) And that was also before you were able to get more evidence that when people actually vote, they don't vote for Obama: the guy has no winning track record.  

    Electability = (none / 0) (#86)
    by aequitas on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:26:49 PM EST
     = more delegates, more states, more votes, better campaign organization, more money, more crossovers, and a more compelling message.  

    and, yet, he still can't close the deal (5.00 / 2) (#95)
    by Kathy on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 01:15:15 PM EST
    must be galling.

    Parent
    What's compelling about (none / 0) (#92)
    by nycstray on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 01:01:07 PM EST
    hope, change and unity?

    nothing new there . . .


    Parent

    Nothing about his message is compelling (none / 0) (#102)
    by smott on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 01:42:58 PM EST
    to me because there is no definition to it.

    This weekend RiverDaighter invited Obama supporters to articulate in substantive terms why they support him, sort of in job-interview style...experience, accomplishments and so on.
    Read the thread.
    http://riverdaughter.wordpress.com/2008/04/19/the-hr-challenge/

    It's astonishing how minimally people can even articulate what he stands for much less why they support him, except, again, in very ephemeral ways...hope, change, unity and so on.

    Plans and policy?
    Not so much.

    Parent

    I'm almost afraid to go there (none / 0) (#111)
    by nycstray on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 02:01:59 PM EST
    but I will. Thanks for the link.

    I've had some 'discussions' trying to get answers from his supporters and they haven't been too successful. And the times when they could give an answer, many times it was so wrong. Oy.

    Parent

    Anyone catch The Tim Russert Show this week? (none / 0) (#108)
    by wasabi on Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 01:58:30 PM EST
    He had David Gregory and Chuck Todd on.  A good portion of the hour was discussing electability.

    For Obama: Youth vote, Democratic activist base enthusiasm (I think they got this wrong), AA's.

    For Clinton: Older white women, white men in general

    Both thought that Obama would have trouble against McCain with Reagan Democrats.  They both agreed that the supers would be hesitant to override the pledged delegates because of the noise that the OFB could make.  They said the questions in the debate were designed to help the supers make a decision.  They also thought that many of the supers would pick Obama over Clinton simply because of the down ticket races, even if they thought he could not win.  It would be a trade off -- a more Democratic congress, but a Republican presidency.