More On the Polls: Inside The Numbers
By Big Tent Democrat
The differentials in the polls are pretty easy to decipher. Take PPP. It has Obama up 3 in PA. And how it gets there is clear. It has low white turnout (76% of the total), high A-A turnout (18% of the total) and Obama only losing the white vote by 14, 52-38 (it has the by now standard 8-1 A-A win for Obama.)
The Q Poll, which has Clinton up 7, has White voters backing Sen. Clinton 57-38 percent (with A-A going for Obama 84-10). By my calculation, Q has a more convention turnout model, somewhere around 81% of the vote will be whites and A-A around 15%.
There are two factors now, the turnout of whites and A-As, and how close can Obama run with whites. Demography is political destiny in this race. NOTE - The final Ras poll has Clinton up 5, up 2 from its last poll, and demography is key again:
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