SUSA PA Poll: Obama Closing Fast, Down 6

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 07:49:29 AM EST
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By Big Tent Democrat

The new World's Greatest Pollster now has Obama closing fast in PA, cutting a 14 point deficit to 6. The SUSA poll shows a 50-44 result (previously it was 54-40.)

Details to follow when available but this is what has been offered - "The poll . . . concluded that women will carry Clinton to victory, despite a surge for Obama in the southeast portion of the state." We need to see the cross tabs to understand this better. More . . .

Quinnipiac also released its final poll, Clinton by 7, 51-44. The internals:

White voters back Sen. Clinton 57 - 38 percent, while blacks back Sen. Obama 84 - 10 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

Projecting the undecideds gets me to 54-46 Clinton. If Obama can capture 40% of the white vote, as Q seems to predict (and one assumes SUSA as well), then he can keep it under double digits. That is the mystery in PA today. What will be Clinton's margin among white voters. Will it be 60-40 or 67-33 or what in between?

Suffolk says Clinton by 10, 52-42. The Suffolk poll projects turnout to be 81% white, 14% A-A. That means Clinton winning about 62% of the white vote by my calculation.

In the end, a 60-40 split among whites means Clinton by 8. 67-33 means means Clinton by 16.

PPP predicts a 3 point Obama win.

PPP believes white turnout will be very low, only 76% of the total and A-A turnout will be high, 18% of the turnout, 6% other (Latino?). PPP also believe Obama will only lose Whites by 52-38 (10% undecided). If this result holds up, then this race is over.

< Monday Morning Rewind and Open Thread | Hillary Clinton On Olbermann's Countdown Tonight >

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SUSA PA Poll: Obama Closing Fast, Down 6 | 103 comments (103 topical)

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Interesting (5.00 / 1) (#1)
by andgarden on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 07:53:46 AM EST

...and disappointing. ;-( (5.00 / 1) (#2)
by Maria Garcia on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 07:54:14 AM EST

Parent

I'm going to believe the other one (5.00 / 2) (#3)
by Kathy on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 07:54:51 AM EST

because it makes me happier.

Clinton up by 16.

Parent

World's Greatest Pollster!!! (5.00 / 2) (#25)
by oculus on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 08:15:25 AM EST

What a slap in the face. Meanwhile, Int. Herald Trib. runs Letter From Washington, including a quote from a working class PA suburbanite, male, who lost his job to someone he deemed an illegal immigrant; guy says he is, in fact, bitter.

Parent

: How does he feel about drivers licenses (none / 0) (#52)
by waldenpond on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:24:45 AM EST

for illegals? If that is he issue, he will be voting Republican in November wouldn't he.

Parent

I suspect that ship has sailed (none / 0) (#5)
by andgarden on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 07:55:25 AM EST

but we'll find out tomorrow night.

Parent

It Just Doesn't Square (none / 0) (#91)
by flashman on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 10:59:30 AM EST

With the awful month Obama has had. His national numbers are tanking; he lost 13 points over a weeks' time before regaining a statically insignificant 3. He pretty much alienated middle American with the "cling" remarks, and had a dreadful performance in the last debate.

His gains appear to be among "new" voters, and I guess that means those who have not participated in previous surveys. These gains could be phantoms, people who participate in the polls but not necessarily in the actual vote. We've seen this sort of thing happen before, in Ohio. The only poll that counts will be the one tomorrow.

Parent

I would actually say that, depending (none / 0) (#4)
by andgarden on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 07:55:00 AM EST

on the demographics, this could make possible a Missouri result.

Parent

I do not see how frankly (none / 0) (#22)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 08:12:31 AM EST

This seems the best possible result for Obama imo.

Parent

Well, the how would be (5.00 / 1) (#24)
by andgarden on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 08:13:56 AM EST

with vote depression, as you said yesterday.

In any case, he's still not above 45%. Those undecideds could put him there, but I doubt it. Hillary is on the precipice of a double-digit victory.

Parent

Respectfully, BTD (5.00 / 1) (#27)
by Kathy on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 08:16:57 AM EST

I will have to agree with Andgarden because he is telling me what I want to hear. Double digit victory!!! Go, Hillary, go!

Parent

That's just my speculation (5.00 / 1) (#28)
by andgarden on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 08:19:02 AM EST

what this poll points to is a spread that is just lower than what I think Hillary needs to go on. Should could beat it--Suffolk says she will--but it's going to be hard. The question of the day is: does Obama break 45%?

Parent

Well, now you're just being mean (5.00 / 1) (#32)
by Kathy on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 08:23:40 AM EST

Parent

: Realistic (none / 0) (#34)
by andgarden on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 08:25:20 AM EST

I try to be honest in my assessment of politics.

Parent

My gut feeling is that with undecideds breaking (none / 0) (#70)
by JoeA on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:46:05 AM EST

for Hillary she will win by 8-12 points. As an Obama supporter I hope it's tighter than that . . . but I think that's probably realistic.

Parent

and the answer is . . . yes, probably (none / 0) (#105)
by JoeA on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 10:59:36 AM EST

just about.

Parent

I would also note (5.00 / 1) (#8)
by andgarden on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 07:58:01 AM EST

that Obama is still not above the magic 45% mark. I await crosstabs. . .

Joe Scarborough (5.00 / 2) (#29)
by standingup on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 08:21:53 AM EST

noted the same on his show this morning. He was also talking about the 13 pt change in the national daily tracking polls for Clinton and asked what we would be hearing in the press if it were reversed.

Parent

Dont worry they are balancing (none / 0) (#67)
by waldenpond on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:44:56 AM EST

it with a talking head (remember the guy who said Clinton has that 'look' Mike Barnacle) he said that Clinton is GE (a bad investment) and Obama is Google, her money will dry up now. Oh lookie... another talking head that is always on CNN is now on MSNBC.

Pat Buchanon, she needs a game changer so people say 'hold on' someting that say 'he can't win in November'
Joe: Give us a game changer Mike.
Mike: something that was a game changer? You said they are poltically savvy. No, they aren't. blah, blah

Fox: Bob Beckel (Obama adorer) Clinton must have double digits. 180k of 220k Republican will vote Obama and give him a push.
MSNBC: none of this has hurt Obama, Dems will unite behind him. Obama was down 20 a month ago. Obama region 49/44 he needs turnout. Obama predicts 2. Joe saying Rendell is saying they are going to do much worse than expected. Now 2 or 3 pts from Obama and Rendell. Internal polls. Schuster: even if 10 pts, superdeez will move 'enough.'

I'm guessing all of the internal polling is showing a squeaker. It looks like all of the money paid off. :(

Parent

: I'd Take Any Expectation Set By Campaigns (none / 0) (#77)
by BDB on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:50:47 AM EST

With a grain of salt. Rendell will downplay expectations.
Having said that, Obama has spent a ton of money on increasingly negative ads, so I won't be surprised if it's a closer race than it was. That kind of crap works, even if people claim to hate it.

Parent
: He is a cellphone and she is a land line (none / 0) (#80)
by Joan in VA on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 10:17:35 AM EST

phone. That is how stupid the analogies got.
Rendell was definitely playing the expectations game.

Parent
: I caught all of that too (none / 0) (#83)
by standingup on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 10:23:40 AM EST

plus Barnacle's analogy of the undetermined vote being between people making the transition from old land line phones (Clinton) to cell phones (Obama) keeping Obama from closing the deal. Of course that was followed by Mika falling all over the analogy with no objectivity.

Parent

Exactly (5.00 / 1) (#38)
by ineedalife on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 08:40:10 AM EST

There is a margin of error in all these polls and I think in this one Obama is near the high end of that window. Perhaps earlier SUSA polls had him at the bottom of it.

Parent

How did this happen? (5.00 / 2) (#9)
by Davidson on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 07:59:49 AM EST

I mean, to lose so many points so quickly--within days? I know the media disinformation plays a role, but damn.

Obama went brutally negative (5.00 / 4) (#30)
by ineedalife on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 08:22:50 AM EST

We'll see. It all depends if Clinton can get out the vote. Obama's strategy seems to be to depress white voter turnout. If there is a big turnout tomorrow I think there will be a huge Clinton win.

I think I will try to do some phone calls for Clinton tonight.

Parent

Clinton on Obama (5.00 / 1) (#45)
by oculus on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:05:44 AM EST

In television commercials and in appearances before crowded rallies, Mr. Obama, of Illinois, cast his opponent in one of the most negative lights of the entire 16-month campaign, calling her a compromised Washington insider. Mrs. Clinton, of New York, responded by suggesting that Mr. Obama's message of hope had given way to old-style politics and asked Democrats to take a harder look at him.

Parent

plus robo calling saying not to believe (none / 0) (#62)
by thereyougo on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:35:11 AM EST

'her lies'. I can't believe he did that.

Obama is in the gutter afaic. Evedence points to his LIES or parsing truth.

Hey everyone, the trend with the undecideds in this campaign went for Clinton. I think the trend will continue.

Parent

: Obama campaign worked hard to (none / 0) (#104)
by oculus on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:40:59 AM EST

register new voters in PA. But I hope they do not all vote for him.

Parent

Obama Camp & Depressing White Turnout (none / 0) (#98)
by BackFromOhio on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 01:58:33 PM EST

Is there a plan for depressing this turnout? Is there a Clinton counterplan?

Parent

I think that they are wrong (none / 0) (#10)
by Kathy on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 08:01:27 AM EST

We'll see tomorrow. Clinton by at least 16.

Parent

I wish (none / 0) (#17)
by Davidson on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 08:07:00 AM EST

I'm hoping for 10, desperately hoping, but I just don't know anymore. This is insane. After everything, Obama should be losing PA, not gaining.

MI and FL need to be resolved before the nominee is selected or we're in a whole heap of trouble in November, but I just don't see that happening unless Clinton wins by 10 and wins IN. Even then, it'll be difficult for her considering the media misleading the public.

Parent

Polls have been wrong before (none / 0) (#19)
by Kathy on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 08:09:35 AM EST

some of them really, really wrong. Every election so far has depended on turnout. I think Clinton's GOTV is a lot stronger than anyone anticipates--or wants to give her credit for.

It could be that Obama's negative ad buy has had a blip effect, too. Of course, Clinton's counter-ads could not be in the equation.

I dunno, I just think they are wrong. This is based on nothing but gut, by the way, but at least I admit it (unlike the pollsters!)

Parent

My gut is feeling like NH, (none / 0) (#44)
by nashville on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:05:26 AM EST

not in the margin width but that she gets what she needs. In NH it was a win, but tomorrow a huge win.

That's what I'm feeling/hoping and I'm sticking with it until proven otherwise. :)

Parent

: I agree (none / 0) (#96)
by TN Dem on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 01:10:08 PM EST

My gut feeling is at least +10...we shall see!

Parent

I have to think that Obama's extreme (none / 0) (#49)
by Anne on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:20:43 AM EST

negativity in these last days will only fire up the Clinton supporters and bring more of the undecideds over to her. There is no way he can have a message that he is a force for changing things in Washington when his tactics are as inside-Washington as it is possible to be. I think it's just a ridiculous thing for someone who has been in the US Senate for the last 4 years to be casting himself as an agent of change - shouldn't he have been that agent when he got to the Senate?

I don't know that I can go with a 16-point win, but I could go 12-14; at this stage, I'm not sure what my gut is telling me, other than it might be time for another Zantac.

Parent

He's Gone Highly Negative (none / 0) (#81)
by BDB on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 10:17:35 AM EST

That's what the news isn't telling you. He's run the Harry & Louise healthcare ads, done robo-calls, etc. That stuff works, but it's also a sign of desperation, IMO. It's basically an admission that he was never going to win Pennsylvania without driving down participation.

If she wins by 6-8, it's not as good as double digits, but she's still in this thing. He's outspent her (setting ad records) and had seven weeks to focus on Pennsylvania. He needs a win, I don't care what anybody says. "Don't worry, I'll have enough money in the Fall to close within a few points of McCain on election day" is not a very persuasive argument to make to Super Ds, IMO.

Parent

: First Read (5.00 / 2) (#87)
by standingup on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 10:35:18 AM EST

on MSNBC agrees with you on the turnout and going negative.

Will it be five points or more? Should tomorrow's primary end up as close as this poll suggests (i.e., five points or less), then this means many of these undecided potential Clinton voters decided to stay home. If they come to the polls, she could see her lead climb to more than five points. And this seems to be why Obama has gone negative in the past couple of days: to keep these undecideds away. He might have also sharpened his tone a bit to beat back the growing post-debate perception that he was looking weak. After all, the undecided voter in Pennsylvania looks to be the type of voter that wants to see a strong walkin' and talkin' candidate. So here's the game on Tuesday -- it's not if Clinton will win, but how big will her victory be. She'd like to net more than 200,000 in the popular vote, which she would only get with both a large turnout (approximately 2 million total) and a 10-point-plus victory.

It's too bad Chuck Todd is stuck on a network that doesn't value good reporting.

Parent

I think they are wrong too. (none / 0) (#39)
by rooge04 on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 08:42:34 AM EST

It's the typical bump they give Obama whenever it gets close. I say Clinton still beats him by 15 or more.

Parent

I don't think SUSA has had a track (5.00 / 1) (#75)
by JoeA on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:48:18 AM EST

record of massaging numbers in that way. It might just be a function of some small movement in the race and the undecideds getting pushed harder in the final days.

Parent

Another analysis (none / 0) (#97)
by TN Dem on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 01:11:57 PM EST

I read has and explaination of missing Jewish voters due to Passover. That may explain the huge swing a short time...

Parent

: Possibly, though I had read some polling (none / 0) (#102)
by JoeA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 08:26:36 AM EST

showing that the Jewish vote was pretty much split down the middle with Hillary only leading in single digits. That may have been an analysis related to other states or nationally, so I don't know if the picture is massively different in PA.

Parent

Negative works (none / 0) (#47)
by dianem on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:09:18 AM EST

Obama is running the Harry and Louise ads repeatedly. He's also spending a not-so-small fortune on pro-Obama ads. People are forgetting his dismal performance in the last debate, or getting the message the it isn't really his fault because the moderator's went negative. The right wing has been very quiet about Obama lately. They had started attacking him, but when it became clear that they might actually turn the tide in the election, they stopped. They want him to win.

And with the "Rules" set up the way they are, a win ins't enough for Clinton. She has to beat him by 10 points for this to even be considered a tie. That's tough when your opponent has millions of dollars moer to throw around than you do.

Parent

ads have negative effects if shown too often. (none / 0) (#65)
by thereyougo on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:44:17 AM EST

If Ocamp is doing that,it won't help him.

Plus,in one ad he's shown walking around hands in his pockets,among some rubble, a factory of some sort empty of workers. Like he was part of the problem, wasn't like he was provding a solution.

If I saw that depressing ad more than once, I'd flip the channel in 1.5 secs.

Parent

: Helps Him (none / 0) (#82)
by BDB on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 10:19:11 AM EST

By driving down her turnout. That's what this is about for Obama now. That's what the guy who we've been repeatedly told has already cinched the nomination is reduced to - trying to persuade her voters not to vote because he's given up any real hope that they will vote for him.

Parent

New Suffolk (5.00 / 1) (#13)
by standingup on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 08:04:55 AM EST

out has Clinton 52-42. Link PDF with internals

Frontrunner Outspends Opponent 4-1 (5.00 / 2) (#26)
by Exeter on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 08:16:51 AM EST

...for two months and is fighting to keep race within double digits?!? JHC! Think about that for a second.

PA is Clinton country, it's where she is from (none / 0) (#76)
by JoeA on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:50:15 AM EST

originally and demographically it couldn't really get any better for her.

I don't think the fact that Obama is outspending her so massively tells us anything apart from the fact that he has built a much more effective small dollar fundraising apparatus.

Parent

It tells me that he isn't (none / 0) (#99)
by Anne on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 03:37:47 PM EST

getting much bang for his buck, and makes me wonder if there is an amount of money that he could spend that would make him a winner. He couldn't do it in Ohio or Texas, and it sure looks like he's not going to be doing it in PA.

He's had seven weeks to beat her. Seven weeks of having his face and his voice everywhere people went. He appears to have closed the gap a little, by going wildly negative, but this was the candidate who wasn't supposed to have to do that to win.

He has a great fundraising operation, but I think another loss is going to slow the gusher of money.

Parent

: I disagree. (none / 0) (#101)
by JoeA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 08:24:39 AM EST

Even off his record breaking month he was still outraising Hillary 2-1 in March, and at the beginning of April in terms of funds available for the Primary he had c. $40 million, while Hillary was in debt.

Parent
: Fund Raising (none / 0) (#103)
by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:10:08 AM EST

isn't the entire picture. What is interesting is that the discussion about "electability" is now the talk.
I'm so GLAD to hear the change from delegate count only.
It's going to be a great day for Hillary!

Parent

KDKA S USA poll is Clinton by 12 (5.00 / 1) (#33)
by Salt on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 08:25:09 AM EST

In our latest exclusive SurveyUSA KDKA-TV news poll released today, Hillary Clinton would still win if the election were held today, 53 percent to 41 percent.

: That one is old (none / 0) (#35)
by andgarden on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 08:26:26 AM EST

Parent
: If only to send the message out there that (none / 0) (#74)
by thereyougo on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:48:13 AM EST

TONS of ads don't buy votes necessarily.
In Obama's case it brought him closer, no doubt abou t it.
Its a testament to Hillary's strength and belief that she's held him back.

Parent

Not (5.00 / 1) (#46)
by nell on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:07:56 AM EST

what I wanted to hear at all...

That being said, Clinton volunteers are ACTIVE and on the ground, at least in Philadelphia. Clinton volunteers were everywhere, while I saw fewer Obama volunteers, even in the center of the city. I was thrilled when I found Clinton flyers on my car, which was parked on the street...so...maybe her ground game is better than any of us can predict...

I don't know if the polls are right, Survey USA tends to be right becuase they catch late trends, but they were wrong with Missouri, so here is to hoping.

Regardless, the feeling among the volunteers I was with was sheer exuberance. People were there from ALL over, there was a really, really diverse group of volunteers, and people were just really happy to be supporting Clinton and screaming "Madam President" at the top of our lungs.

Well (5.00 / 2) (#64)
by lilburro on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:39:47 AM EST

if the gains are in the southeast, it sounds like SUSA might be right - the Philly suburbs are definitely going to play an important role and contribute a lot of Democratic turnout. If they like Obama, that's significant. I suppose we'll see. Obama within 6 all of a sudden seems high to me. If the rest of the state has high turnout, Hillary Clinton will probably win by more than 6 points. What % are the undecideds in the SUSA poll?

: 6% were undecided (none / 0) (#68)
by TruthMatters on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:45:25 AM EST

I gave Hillary a 4-2 break on undecideds
so I see it as 54-46 for Hillary 8 point win.

Parent

Keep the faith folks (5.00 / 1) (#90)
by Benjamin3 on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 10:50:11 AM EST

Here's a link to an interesting article. Obama needs a huge turnout in Philly if he hopes to get close on Tuesday - and this article explains why he probably won't get it.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-obamaphilly20apr20,1,1098310.story

New Hampshire (none / 0) (#6)
by Saul on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 07:56:35 AM EST

It could be a New Hampshire type poll. You never know.

: Hillary's NH win was very small (none / 0) (#7)
by andgarden on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 07:57:30 AM EST

Parent

Doesn't this pretty much mean (none / 0) (#11)
by bruhrabbit3 on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 08:02:06 AM EST

the race is over? I don't care whether it's Clinton or Obama, but i it's within 6 points in PA as the actual final result- what exactly is the argument either in popular vote or delegates for Clinton? I know Obama will not have the delegate count. But what is Clinton's argument regarding the popular vote. Will she have enough if MI or FL were counted? My feeling has been that if Clinton doesn't pass Obama in popular vote it's unacceptable for her at least to me to try to win through arguments to the superdelegates alone. I believe, however, if she wins the popular vote she has every right to argue that it can be consider as a reason to trump delegate count. Looking this poll tighten, and other, this question is in my mind. No one should pressure her to get out of the race, but how does she win without either the popular vote or delegate count? I am not one of those people who accepts the undemocratic idea of - well but she could win by swaying the Superdelegates. The fact is while it maybe within the rules it's not within little 'd' democratic values and would just not go overwell. I could be wrong.

Let's count the votes first no? (5.00 / 4) (#18)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 08:07:59 AM EST

Parent

: Yes, but at what point is it a distraction rather (none / 0) (#100)
by bruhrabbit3 on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:44:30 PM EST

than a real race?

Parent

Hold on -- of course she should stay in the race (5.00 / 1) (#37)
by IndiDemGirl on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 08:34:16 AM EST

and I'm an Obama supporter. I think the excitment about the race and the increased registration is fantastic and will pay off dividends for us Dems. Let's be excited about the voter participation tomorrow no matter who wins! And I still say Hillary by 12.

Parent

Don't count her out in PA (none / 0) (#16)
by Kathy on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 08:06:26 AM EST

and there are more elections to go in this season with more voters to count.

I just don't believe these polls.

Parent

So which ad does she have to respond to? (none / 0) (#12)
by BarnBabe on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 08:02:36 AM EST

There must have been a lie ad over the weekend for the big change. You do not have to go neg to respond on. I believe she is on Larry King tonight? Someone said Countdown in the open thread, but I think it might be LK. It will be her last PA chance. You go girl!

Yep, at 9PM EST.

Are these numbers (none / 0) (#14)
by TN Dem on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 08:05:19 AM EST

not in direct contrast with other pollsters who show Hillary gaining over the same time period?

surprised at this (none / 0) (#15)
by miguelito on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 08:06:09 AM EST

I didn't think SUSA would have results like this but I still think she beats him by at least double digits

SUSA is the gold standard (5.00 / 2) (#20)
by Davidson on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 08:09:46 AM EST

I trust them on this and my heart has sunk. It reminds me of when I read the Iowa newspaper poll and was shocked at the numbers, disbelieving it, but then the results came and backed them up. I want to be wrong, but I'm losing what little hope I had.

Parent

Don't give up! (5.00 / 2) (#21)
by Kathy on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 08:11:15 AM EST

Seriously, these are just polls. You can't pull up stakes and go home. If anything, it might help Clinton because the prediction that her margins were so wide could have kept some of the more apathetic voters at home. Now, everyone in PA knows that she needs every single vote.

Parent

Not much more I can do (5.00 / 1) (#31)
by Davidson on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 08:23:08 AM EST

I voted on Super Tuesday for Clinton and gave her the maximum amount possible. There's nothing more I can do. I'm just talking about hope in itself for her candidacy (and, thus, our GE chances). I'm really aghast at how she could slip at all in PA after the weeks Obama has had, let alone by so damn much.

I can't believe the superdelegates won't consider that he's outrageously outspent her, has the media totally on his side, and yet will still likely lose PA. How can they be so foolish to continue endorsing him? God. I'm at a loss at what the Democratic party has done during this primary.

Parent

: There is more you can do (5.00 / 1) (#36)
by ineedalife on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 08:34:08 AM EST

Get on the phone for Clinton. If you have donated to Clinton then you get the same e-mails I do. It is easy to do.
This is just one poll. And even its margin of error and undecideds allow for a 15 point Clinton win. A 10-12 point win is certainly possible.

Parent
: I'll tell you how ... (none / 0) (#58)
by BlueMerlin on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:32:24 AM EST

they are afraid of African-American and youth anger. That's the one consideration that trumps everything Obama has said and done to his own detriment. On some level, nothing he says or does matters to the media or the superdelegates because his AA and student support is unwavering. No Dem wants to see a repeat of Chicago 1968 in the streets of Denver this August.

Parent

Intriguing (none / 0) (#23)
by Grey on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 08:13:11 AM EST

I've been predicting a spread of 8-9 points, with a 10+ (12) as a possibility.

I'm waiting for the cross tabs to see what's going on but, at first blush, it looks like the 8-9 points spread might be on target. It's not what I want, but it seems more likely at this point.

Not very good for Hillary. (none / 0) (#40)
by catfish on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 08:48:13 AM EST

We'll see what happens Tuesday.

Calls for her to drop out will start before votes are cast, that should help her a little.

Obama seems to be feeling good about his chances. (none / 0) (#41)
by ajain on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 08:53:23 AM EST

He said this on during a radio interview today

"I'm not predicting a win. I'm predicting it's going to be close and that we are going to do a lot better than people expect," he says.

Outspent 3 to 1 (none / 0) (#42)
by Chimster on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 08:59:04 AM EST

Considering Obama outspent Hillary 3 to 1 in PA, I think these polls are actually pretty good news.

wow, big change so quickly (none / 0) (#43)
by DandyTIger on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:05:25 AM EST

While I believe the overall numbers of Clinton winning anywhere by between 5 and 10 points, it's a bit unnerving to see polls swing so big so quickly. Sounds a bit questionable to me. But perhaps it's the undecideds finally deciding.

Certainly the massive spending by Obama has been a factor all along in tightening the race. Of course if I were in the Obama camp, I'd worry that give the spending, the race only tightened by that much. Embarrassing and worrisome if you ask me. But then I'm obviously biased.

We'll know tomorrow.

SUSA or something else? (none / 0) (#48)
by AnninCA on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:20:40 AM EST

I went to SUSA site, did't find the poll, then realized that this is a local media poll using the SUSA model.

But this isn't actually from SUSA

Made me feel a lot better. I'm going to decide that there's a differece.

: You're wrong, I'm afraid. (none / 0) (#50)
by andgarden on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:22:05 AM EST

This IS a SUSA poll. They just haven't put it up on their site yet.
They probably will by lunchtime.

Parent
: ARe you sure? (none / 0) (#51)
by smott on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:23:59 AM EST

BTD where did you get this?....

Parent

OK the link said... (none / 0) (#53)
by smott on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:26:05 AM EST

The poll was conducted "exclusively for NBC" by SUSA...what the heck does that mean?

It seems I remember (none / 0) (#57)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:30:18 AM EST

that in one state (can't remember which), SurveyUSA did a poll for themselves and a poll for a certain group in about the same timeperiod. The poll they did for themselves resulted in way different numbers than the poll they did for whichever-group-that-was because the "group" requested different demographics.

Maybe this is like that.

Parent

No, this is not like that (none / 0) (#60)
by andgarden on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:33:58 AM EST

this is a SUSA poll done for TV, and consistent with other recent SUSA polls of PA. It will show up on their site soon.

Parent

: Oh well (none / 0) (#89)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 10:48:05 AM EST

I can think wishfully, can't I?

Parent

I think it means they have the right to how (none / 0) (#59)
by Prabhata on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:33:04 AM EST

it is conducted.

Parent

Well the bright side (none / 0) (#54)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:27:07 AM EST

is if they're right, I don't have to think about this election anymore, and I don't have to expend any energy filling out a little bubble. I can pretend that the next prez election won't happen until 2012.

This is the latest I could find from SUSA... (none / 0) (#55)
by smott on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:27:34 AM EST

54-40 Clinton

One Week to PA Democratic Primary, Clinton Still Atop Obama By Double Digits: In a Democratic Primary in Pennsylvania today, 04/15/08, one week to the vote, Hillary Clinton remains comfortably atop Barack Obama, 54% to 40%, according to SurveyUSA's 4th tracking poll conducted exclusively for WCAU-TV Philadelphia, KDKA-TV Pittsburgh, WHP-TV Harrisburg, and WNEP-TV Scranton. In 3 previous releases, SurveyUSA has shown Clinton ahead by 19 points one month ago, 12 points two weeks ago, 18 points last week and, today, 14 points. More should be made of the consistency across these polls than the comparatively small movement from one to the other. Clinton has polled at 55%, 53%, 56%, and 54%. Obama has polled at 36%, 41%, 38%, 40%. SurveyUSA does not show the contest necessarily tightening, nor does SurveyUSA show the race necessarily "tight." Clinton has a slight advantage among men, as she has in 3 of 4 SurveyUSA polls. Clinton has an significant advantage among women, as she has in 4 of 4 polls. Of note: Obama has gained ground among Democrats who attend religious services regularly. He had trailed Clinton by as many as 19 points among regular church goers, but today closes to within 7. Clinton and Obama are even among those who have graduated college. Clinton leads 2:1 among those who have not. The contest remains tight in Southeast PA, which includes Philadelphia; the lead has changed hands in each of the 4 tracking polls. In Southwest PA, which includes Pittsburgh, Clinton gained ground this week. In West Central PA, which includes Johnstown, Clinton retook ground this week that Obama had claimed earlier. In South Central PA, which includes Harrisburg, Obama gained ground. In NE PA, which includes Scranton, and in NW PA, which includes Erie, there was little movement. Among liberals, Obama moved atop Clinton for the first time.

Too old (none / 0) (#61)
by Prabhata on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:35:10 AM EST

BO has been flooding the airways, the mail, the streets. He's spending all he can to win.

Parent

: airwaves (none / 0) (#73)
by Prabhata on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:48:09 AM EST

Parent

...but it is from 4/15... (none / 0) (#56)
by smott on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:28:04 AM EST

50-44 (none / 0) (#63)
by Prabhata on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:38:31 AM EST

are great numbers considering that BO has flooded all markets with his name and his message. If he's not able to make the sale, and he's getting only 44 percent, that's awful. Those numbers lift me. There are still some undecideds, and the numbers look like OH.

Obama will definitely take Philly (none / 0) (#66)
by smott on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:44:35 AM EST

...and perhaps the Harrisburg area...I am hoping Clinton will clobber him pretty much everywhere else.
She's here in Pittsburgh with the Big Dawg today...

: I heard rumors (none / 0) (#71)
by nell on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:46:17 AM EST

when I was down there that the campaign's numbers showed her closing nicely in Philadelphia. Now these were rumors going around amongst volunteers in Philadelphia, so I cannot confirm that they are true, but the feeling I got was that they thought they were going to do decent in Philadelphia.

Parent

Is it possible... (none / 0) (#72)
by white n az on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:48:00 AM EST

that PA residents are actually answering their phones and giving real answers to pollsters in PA at this point?

It's possible to alter a polls results by insisting on certain methodologies which the company that's is paying the bill can do.

The real polling occurs tomorrow.

Well we better hope it's 10% win or better (none / 0) (#78)
by smott on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:52:46 AM EST

...else WWTSBQ clamor will reach deafening levels...

for what it's worth... (none / 0) (#79)
by white n az on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 10:03:42 AM EST

Rasmussen just released it's final PA Poll

they show Hillary +5

: lol still trying to cross 45% ! (none / 0) (#85)
by Faust on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 10:27:47 AM EST

Andgarden is right about that mark, it seems to be his ceiling in all polls.

Parent

Interesting indeed. (none / 0) (#84)
by Faust on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 10:26:36 AM EST

Good news for Obama.

: Hey, I'd much rather (none / 0) (#92)
by Marvin42 on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:15:50 AM EST

Sen Obama get good news all day today, and bad news tomorrow than the other way around! ;)

Parent

Where (none / 0) (#86)
by americanincanada on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 10:32:57 AM EST

was the SUSA poll conducted?

How off was SUSA in NH?

Too many polls!! (none / 0) (#88)
by allpeopleunite on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 10:39:55 AM EST

This polling is absolutely ridiculous there's too many. Is every American supposed to educated themselves in polling methods and science in order to choose which one to follow. Or maybe that is exactly the nature of polling, stabs in the dark that mean little.

Is there a reason (none / 0) (#94)
by americanincanada on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:46:57 AM EST

we still have no cross tabs?

Hmmm (none / 0) (#95)
by americanincanada on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 12:15:59 PM EST

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b92f9f10-4d6b-4f93-b747-e06a37fce20f

SUSA PA Poll: Obama Closing Fast, Down 6 | 103 comments (103 topical)

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