SUSA IN Poll: Clinton By 9

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 10:35:39 AM EST
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The latest SUSA Indiana poll:

8 days until votes are counted, Hillary Clinton finishes ahead of Barack Obama, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WHAS-TV in Louisville and WCPO-TV in Cincinnati. The results are identical to a SurveyUSA TV poll released 4 weeks ago, on 04/01/08. Clinton led then 52% to 43%, leads now 52% to 43%.

Crosstabs. Clinton leads among whites 56-39 (87% of the vote), Obama among African Americans 78-16 (10% of the vote). On election day, Obama will win A-As by 90-10. The issue is, as it has been for a while, will Obama lose whites by 20 points or more.

By Big Tent Democrat

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SUSA IN Poll: Clinton By 9 | 124 comments (124 topical)

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Heh. (5.00 / 1) (#1)
by madamab on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 10:37:37 AM EST

Just wrote in the previous thread that I hope HRC beats Obama by 10 in Indiana.

Too early to tell, but Obama hasn't had many good days lately.

How About 10.24%? (5.00 / 4) (#5)
by PssttCmere08 on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 10:41:45 AM EST

Parent

Oooh! (5.00 / 4) (#7)
by madamab on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 10:42:51 AM EST

We can round it up to 11%!

That's what we do anyway, we lying Clintonites! LOL

Parent

Don't you meant (5.00 / 1) (#57)
by janarchy on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:38:25 AM EST

you hope he'll be her by -10%? Because we all know he 'won' PA, right?

Parent

oops (5.00 / 2) (#58)
by janarchy on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:38:49 AM EST

I meant beat her. He could never BE her. He hasn't got the moxie.

Parent

Every loss (5.00 / 2) (#65)
by madamab on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:43:34 AM EST

is a win for Obama! Because he IS THE NOMINEE ALREADY!!!111!!!!

/takes another swig of Kool-Aid

Parent

It is like a runner in a race (5.00 / 3) (#71)
by TeresaInPa on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:49:49 AM EST

saying "stop running stop running, so I can cross the finish line first"

Parent

Please, please tell (5.00 / 1) (#78)
by waldenpond on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:55:38 AM EST

me how you see her getting the nomination? I have hit maximum frustration. It seems to me that the media keeps propping up Obama and won't allow his campaign to implode and everyone keeps pushing it's over (aargh) I keep hanging in there, but I have lost my belief that Obama can do any wrong.

I need motivation! AP poll being touted on MSNBC and Fox this morning. She has the better chance to beat McCain. :)

Parent

Hang in there, waldenpond! (5.00 / 2) (#81)
by madamab on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 12:03:14 PM EST

Remember that the SD's will make the ultimate choice. Nothing will happen until June.

So far, Obama has not yet proven his electability argument, which is that he doesn't need HRC's voters to expand the electoral map and beat McCain in November. HRC is well on her way to proving hers, and Reverend Wright is giving her argument weight.

Here. I will pass you some dark chocolate through the Intertubes. Always calms me right down. :-)

Parent

Better make it a beer (5.00 / 1) (#90)
by waldenpond on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 12:24:42 PM EST

I just read stillife's comment and it didn't help. :) So you better make it chocolate and a beer.

Parent

: Would you like a shot of Crown Royal (5.00 / 2) (#100)
by madamab on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 12:43:39 PM EST

to go with that combo?
;-)

Parent

MCM and local MCM coverage of Wright has (none / 0) (#80)
by jawbone on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:59:26 AM EST

been almost entirely negative over the weekend.

Not so much is the copy they read, but the video they chose to show.

So, perhaps, the MCM is changing its take on Obama?

One weekend does not a U-turn indicate, however.

Parent

I agree with you (none / 0) (#89)
by stillife on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 12:16:47 PM EST

Assuming she wins IN, I see them heading into the convention in a virtual tie; obviously, neither can have enough delegates to cinch the nomination. My gut feeling, FWIW, is that the SD's will give the nomination to Obama b/c it's the easy way out, even if it's not the road to victory in November. They're afraid of alienating the extremely vocal Obama contingent.

And if that happens, the Dems will suffer a huge loss in November.

Parent

Keep drinking that Kool-Aid (5.00 / 1) (#119)
by stefystef on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 05:08:16 PM EST

Obama followers...you are going to need the sugar rush to help you when Obama loses the next 4-5 primaries.

Rev Wright said it right. There's a change coming...

Rise Hillary Rise. Your time is now.

Parent

SUSA had her +16 in early april 11-13 (5.00 / 1) (#43)
by TalkRight on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:27:33 AM EST

and had her by the same +9 in end march (29-31)

Parent

Let me play Rachel Maddow. (5.00 / 5) (#67)
by Marco21 on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:45:12 AM EST

"Well, Barack narrowed her lead from 16 to 10 in a matter of weeks. That's impressive."

Thank you. This has been another presentation of MSNBarackC analyst theater.

Parent

Yes, (none / 0) (#50)
by Lil on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:32:48 AM EST

I thought she'd be doing better than this, but I'm back at work after the most beautiful spring week ever and it's raining, so I may be a bit more pessimistic today.

Parent

2 Factors That May Change Her Numbers (5.00 / 1) (#64)
by PssttCmere08 on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:43:29 AM EST

Rev. Wright and Voter I.D.'s

Parent

Voter ID Could Hurt Her (none / 0) (#92)
by BDB on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 12:26:09 PM EST

With women (name must match on photo id and registration so if you changed it on one when you got married and not the other, there could be a problem) and the elderly, many of whom don't drive.

Parent

Nah (none / 0) (#94)
by andgarden on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 12:28:59 PM EST

let's be clear: the voter ID law is probably good for Hillary. But with a margin of 9 points, it probably doesn't matter much.

Parent

True, but the most transient (none / 0) (#95)
by Cream City on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 12:37:37 PM EST

age group is the youngest voters, especially students, so that may balance out the undeniable problem of voter ID for women, elderly -- and many disabled, btw, as I know from family experience. Some have disabilities that deny them driver's licenses.

Parent

: I haven't read up on... (none / 0) (#99)
by NWHiker on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 12:43:15 PM EST

... the voter ID thing, but is it going to apply next week?

Parent

Exceptions? (none / 0) (#101)
by waldenpond on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 12:46:57 PM EST

Typically, there are many exceptions to the photo ID rules. Such as going using multiple other IDs, (SS# with utility bill), voting early or absentee (already 110,000 votes in). Many times you can vote and then have a certain amount of time to get your id in. Many times you can vote with just the receipt that you applied for the photo ID and you can get official state IDs through other local and state offices rather than just throught the DMV. The gotv people need to get organized and communicate the exceptions and processes asap.

Parent

I heard --NBC?--that the IN ID law does apply (none / 0) (#121)
by jawbone on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:01:45 PM EST

for the primary.

Which sounds insane to me -- how can people get the requisite ID's in such a short time frame?

And, yes, older women in particular, but any woman who has made a name change, could be in big trouble.

For the new "secure" NJ driver's license, my elderly neighbor had to locate a record of her marriage -- at a closed synagogue. That was fun --and had her very, very nervous. She married in the 40's and never had a problem renewing her license until last year.

Parent

: Per Marsha Coyle (sp?) on NewsHour -- pretty sure (none / 0) (#122)
by jawbone on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:21:44 PM EST

voter ID law applies to primary in IN.
Not completely sure, but very sure.
Law says person without gov't supplied photo ID may vote, then go to county location (?) within 10 days to provide the photo ID (or suitable proof?)
Or prove the he or she cannot afford the state photo ID. Must have official copy of birth certificate. No mention of what women will need to prove their married name is correct.

Parent

As someone else pointed out (none / 0) (#110)
by cmugirl on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 02:06:45 PM EST

All the colleges are done this week and next (Notre Dame has grades due on the 6th, so the finals are done on Saturday), which means, everyone will be gone from campuses.

Parent

you're right (none / 0) (#72)
by Josey on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:50:34 AM EST

SUSA 4/14 - Hillary 55-39 - http://tinyurl.com/4ltb9m

Today's poll of up 9 is the same as poll April 1.
She went from up 16 to up 9 in 2 weeks.
Eeeeek!

Parent

Obama's campaign (5.00 / 3) (#82)
by eleanora on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 12:05:43 PM EST

has a great ground game, so of course it's going to narrow as we get closer. I read in the Post yesterday that her ground game has really picked up since PA, and they're going head to head with Obama's group in terms of offices and GOTV in IN. This primary has been excellent for forcing the Clinton campaign to think outside the box and compete everywhere no matter what. I think she'll win it by at least 5. :)

Parent

: But they are bored! (5.00 / 2) (#114)
by felizarte on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 02:50:18 PM EST

Hopefully too bored to go on.

Parent

Well this is reason to celebrate for me... (5.00 / 5) (#2)
by athyrio on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 10:39:05 AM EST

at least, as I adore Hillary and my life depends on her health care proposal getting thru....Thanks for the best news of the day!!!
Sorry if I sound so determined for Hillary but her health care really means a great deal to me and even John Edwards, who I initially supported, says it is the better plan....

For your sake (5.00 / 2) (#6)
by madamab on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 10:42:07 AM EST

and for so many millions more who are suffering under our current system, I so hope she is our President next January.

Parent

Exactly (5.00 / 2) (#12)
by abfabdem on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 10:49:37 AM EST

I have kids and young relatives who want to be in professions that are more free-lance-oriented. So they are not going to have health insurance from an employer. This worries me a lot. Also I have seen my sister's premiums go up so much every year for what is pretty lousy insurance. And she never gets the benefit of the discounts that employers negotiate. It seems to so unfair--to pay more for worse insurance coverage.

Parent

: The most (5.00 / 3) (#19)
by AnninCA on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 10:55:46 AM EST

important issue is that the companies must be stopped from this business of selling policies and then cancelling when people have a claim.
It's rampant. It's pure theft.
Even before a national health care plan gets into play, I want to see that crud stopped.

Parent
: Retired From A Company Whose CEO Made (none / 0) (#93)
by MO Blue on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 12:27:18 PM EST

extremely poor decisions which seriously damaged it earnings and stock price. He walked out the door with a multi-million dollar package and the company reduced its amount of participate in retiree's health care plan. My premium tripled this year.

Parent

Did Mrs Edward slam Obama on health care stuff and (4.00 / 1) (#34)
by TalkRight on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:16:06 AM EST

his hands off administrative apporach

Did you, for example, ever know a single fact about Joe Biden's health care plan? Anything at all? But let me guess, you know Barack Obama's bowling score. We are choosing a president, the next leader of the free world. We are not buying soap, and we are not choosing a court clerk with primarily administrative duties.

Looks pretty harsh to me.. it was directed on Obama not in general on media per se... take your cue.

Parent

: Hmmm! (none / 0) (#41)
by madeinUSA on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:25:48 AM EST

This link suggests something. http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=722561891

Parent
: She was slamming the media, fo sure. (none / 0) (#69)
by Marco21 on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:49:30 AM EST

Not Obama. It's her latest post at Think Progress.

Parent
: *blink* (none / 0) (#74)
by AnninCA on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:53:41 AM EST

Parent

I want her to win because my son (5.00 / 3) (#37)
by hairspray on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:18:32 AM EST

is in alternative energy and her plan is the best for not only his job and millions more like him, but for the country as well. So we all have a stake in her winning.

Parent

: these are the types of comments (5.00 / 1) (#116)
by thereyougo on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 03:19:02 PM EST

that will spread and elect Hillary and healthcare.
I think if goes through it will be like FDR getting social security for all. Healthcare is so important that if it takes hold, even young people will abandon Obama.
Its incumbent upon us to spread this around. Elect the president based on your self interest

Parent

This could also be the main reason (5.00 / 1) (#115)
by felizarte on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 02:58:01 PM EST

that General Electric, which owns NBC and MSNBC is so busy attacking Clinton, because of her Universal Health Care proposal which caps premiums among other things to keep insurance companies in check; because GE is heavily invested in their own healthcare insurance operations; as well as Hillary's promise to examine all no-bid and defense contracts. There you go.

Parent

Now, Let's See NC move up! (5.00 / 4) (#3)
by AnninCA on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 10:39:31 AM EST

Nice quote from Bayh today. Rendell called him and said, "OK, now YOU have to deliver Indiana."

Bayh replied: "Well, if I had a 20 point lead like you had, I'm sure I'd be able to pull that off."

GO HILLARY

If She Could Win NC I Think It Would Be Over (5.00 / 2) (#9)
by PssttCmere08 on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 10:43:26 AM EST

for Obama....but what is with Dean's comments...that sorta undermines the campaigns.

Parent

Dean (5.00 / 5) (#20)
by AnninCA on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 10:56:16 AM EST

is melting down. :)

He's now all over the map.

Parent

That is one way to pursue a 50 state strategy.... (5.00 / 8) (#30)
by jerry on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:12:56 AM EST

Parent

: LOL* (5.00 / 1) (#75)
by AnninCA on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:54:17 AM EST

It took me a minute......but I got it! :)

Parent

Yeah, he couldn't find the fanny he had (5.00 / 4) (#31)
by Militarytracy on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:15:14 AM EST

on Friday with both hands today on MSNBC. I mean, I came away thinking that Hillary could be running the for Democratic nomination or something and he thought she was too. It was freaky.

Parent

I agree (5.00 / 3) (#32)
by ineedalife on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:15:38 AM EST

NC has become Obama's firewall state. But I fully expect him to hold serve there. But if IN is a big enough Hillary win that she offsets NC it would be huge. She maintains her popular vote argument. And there is a whole lot of bad news for Obama coming down the pike in the KY and WV and PR primaries.

Parent

What you mean, what's (4.00 / 1) (#42)
by waldenpond on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:25:58 AM EST

with Dean? I think he is very clear. One of them needs to drop out as soon as the primaries are done so the party can unify. This country needs change. The person that should drop out is the one who is behind in pledged delegates. The supers won't over turn the pledged delegates.

IMO the nomination is absolutely going to Obama. There is no way Dean would be out advocating Clinton drop out after Wright's extensive presence if he wasn't convinced in was already in the bag.

Every time Obama takes a hit, he is out, trying to dampen the views of Clinton supporters that feel Obama may be unelectable and it is possible the superdeez could come out for Clinton. It's like getting a pat on the head.... shhhh, it'll be ok, don't get your hopes up. psst.. you're getting a pony.

Indiana 2006 census has the AA pop at 8.9%. It seems 10% for the poll is low. I would expect at least 12% turnout, but that is not enough to make a difference, but if this is an open primary and same day registration, won't that push it towards Obama. I think a 9 pt spread is too high. I want to see the effect of the latest events.

I do not believe any of the next contests or any negative media coverage will effect Obama getting the nomination. The party has decided. IMO.

Parent

the voters decide (5.00 / 1) (#49)
by TeresaInPa on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:32:34 AM EST

and more of them have voted for Hillary. Your daily talking points are boring. Tell the Obama camp to come up with some new schtick please.

Parent

You do not read my comments (5.00 / 2) (#63)
by waldenpond on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:42:26 AM EST

often? I get tired of writing this.......I am a die hard Clinton supporter who will be writing her name in. Going to call me a Republican next as I try to look at the process from the other side? I just look at the party's attitude toward the process and what media absorbtion of the Obama campaign talking pts. Dean talks down the popular vote. It doesn't seem to matter what hits Obama takes, the media will spin it for him. My focus is the GE. It looks like the party is trying to end this and shift to the GE and the voters don't matter to them.

I want the popular vote to count but it looks like what I want doesn't matter.

Again, I have been trying to evaluate the campaign through BTDs media darling theory. I may not agree with it, it is just an analytical process. Get over yourself.

Parent

We're all a little twitchy right now (5.00 / 3) (#76)
by eleanora on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:55:18 AM EST

on both sides, I think. The Obama supporters see their guy deflating, but with a big lead, and we see our girl fighting hard to catch up, but the party leaders keep trying to sandbag her. I think you're right about Dean et al, but the Democratic party isn't a suicide pact. The undecided supers are hedging for a reason, and I think it's electability. They're not going to go for him unless it looks like he's got a better shot of winning in the fall. And his coattails have taken a big, big hit lately, which has got to be scaring them. Scares me, that's for sure.

Parent

Dean (5.00 / 1) (#77)
by wasabi on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:55:26 AM EST

Dean seems to be all over the map on his comments recently. Sometimes he says it's a delegate race, sometimes popular vote is important too. Then the SDs should vote by July 1st, then they should come out beginning now. I wonder if he is getting alot of pushback from both camps. He doesn't stay on one message.

Parent

Dean's lack of political experience (5.00 / 1) (#98)
by Cream City on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 12:42:05 PM EST

beyond his atypical state becomes so clear. But many super-delegates have a lot more experience on the campaign trail and in more typical states -- and have their jobs in peril, too, as the pols among them will be accountable to us. So I have to wonder how much his opinion, as that is all it is, weighs with those super-delegates. We'll see.

Parent

: Dean's experience (5.00 / 1) (#111)
by christinep on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 02:14:27 PM EST

When Dean responded rather cavalierly to the longtime huge supporters of the DNC (read: time & money loyal Dem supporters) awhile back, one could almost see this erratic pattern coming. As one who gave $ liberally as Dean was seeking both the Presidency and then the DNC chair, I did attend a few small private parties where he spoke and commingled. To be sure, he was impressive then--but, he also displayed a penchant for pulling it out of the air or whatever. I believe that in the matters cited and definitely in the mismanagement of the Florida & Michigan situations Dr. Dean has shown himself to be clumsy and a bit of reactive egotist. He seems to be allowing his ego to preclude real leadership.

Parent

I know that you are pro-Clinton by your comments.. (5.00 / 3) (#83)
by alexei on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 12:05:59 PM EST

but, I strongly disagree that Obama has won. Dean has become a such a wimp and this is from a former strong supporter of his for President and DNC Chairmanship. He has sold out his 50 state strategy by not forcing the issue of re-votes or sitting the two delegations. He is not the leader I expected and am sorely disappointed in him.

And, as I posted, the "Media Darling" theory is only CDS and Obama with all these advantages, is essentially tied with Clinton. She is receiving more respect daily from the media for her political skills, grit, perseverance and moxie. She is thriving, while Obama is wilting, being "bored" and petulant. The media's true darling is McCain, and Obama has already proven that he can't handle the heat (as mild as it has been).

If the SDs don't see the writing on the wall with the down ticket ads now running against the Dems by the Repubs, then they are truly lemmings. I don't think that they are, and they will not go for a nominee that endangers their job security.

Parent

: This is too funny (1.00 / 1) (#105)
by madeinUSA on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 01:28:14 PM EST

Barack Obama had the advantages over the Clinton Machines? I doubt that very much. He was the nobody junior senator from Illinois who happens to be black and brillant!

Parent

Maybe you wouldn't be bored (1.00 / 1) (#104)
by independent voter on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 01:16:29 PM EST

if you actually READ what he has written and found out he's on your side!! Not so boring now, is he?

Parent

Open Primary (none / 0) (#46)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:29:12 AM EST

Parent

Ok (1.00 / 1) (#45)
by madeinUSA on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:28:28 AM EST

She could if she could get away with the fear tactics she pulled in PA but I think IN voters are unto it like IA voters!

Parent

OBL is a legitimate campaign issue (5.00 / 2) (#84)
by Terry M on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 12:06:41 PM EST

OBL is still at large and has threatened further harm to Americans and our interests. There is nothing untoward about alluding to that fact. If Obama can't deal with an image on a commercial, how is he going to deal with the real thing.

He can't debate Clinton, but he's going negotiate with N. Korea, China, Russia, trade partners, etc.? His fear of debate really makes him look weak.

Parent

: because... (none / 0) (#106)
by madeinUSA on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 01:33:36 PM EST

... the debates have been focusing on tabloid issues that aren't helping us deal with the problems we face in the country. Having diplomatic engagement with foreign govt (and I don't mean lobbying for countries like columbia for free trade agreements that'll favor columbia) and getting along with the rest of the world helps us with the security of this country. I believe in diplomacy over threats of bombing countries like Iran. If not for diplomacy Russia would not have disarmed, the cold war would probably still be going on. Think about that for a minute. I thought so! Thank you!

Parent
: Obama's words/actions don't stand up to scrutiny (none / 0) (#113)
by Ellie on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 02:44:02 PM EST

Doesn't matter how "inspiring" or "lovely" or "super magically delicious" he is.
He's said and done stupid things, his record is thin, his appreciation of serious issues is wanting and no, he's not so incredibly brilliant that he can afford to reveal more weaknesses.
It's really too bad he's going to take a lot of more worthy Dems -- and Dem accomplishments -- down with him should he face McCain in the GE.
His support will barely get him out of the gate.

Parent

Bombing Pakistan Is Such A Gentle Idea Isn't It (5.00 / 1) (#97)
by MO Blue on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 12:40:19 PM EST

Oh let's not think about the fact that OBL is still at large and might just be planning more attacks on the US because that is instilling fear. Instead, let's talk about bombing Pakistan who has nuclear weapons because that is a good way of making people feel safe.

Also, it is not just foreign policy where candidates use fear tactics. Obama's "Harry and Louise" ads are Fear Tactics 101 straight out of the Republican play book.

Parent

What fear tactics? (none / 0) (#54)
by tigercourse on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:36:07 AM EST

Parent

Oh, you know, (5.00 / 1) (#68)
by madamab on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:46:06 AM EST

the ad that showed OBL for .000032 of a second.

I guess that's all it takes to scare us dumb, racist yahoos who done be votin' for the Hillmonster. Yesssireee Bob!

Parent

: LOL - as if it isn't an issue a Pres won't face. (5.00 / 1) (#85)
by alexei on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 12:06:46 PM EST

Parent

In my part of NC (5.00 / 1) (#18)
by AlSmith on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 10:54:19 AM EST

I see no Obama signs at all but some Hillary Clinton. There are a lot of signs out for statewide races like Governor. At least in the paths I have traveled you'd think Obama is writing off the area.

I wonder about the effect of the Wright ad.... If a poll comes out that shows Obama is vulnerable here (like not way overweighting black voters) his whole house of cards could come crashing down. Certainly HRC has delivered every time her back has been to the wall but can Obama?

Parent

Did you miss the news... (1.00 / 1) (#47)
by madeinUSA on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:31:37 AM EST

43 of Edwards supporters threw their support behind Obama last week. NC is Obama country big time. I think Indiana too! Will explain why Bayh is pleading for people to hold off endorsing while he is holding on to endorsing. I think he should not have endorsed if he did not want others endorsing or he could unendorse, not too late!

Parent

What are their names? Did Obama declare victory? (5.00 / 1) (#66)
by Ellie on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:44:11 AM EST

... yet?

Or is this another eleventh hour cry for Sen Clinton take a dive before the score is tabulated?

Parent

Nope (none / 0) (#107)
by madeinUSA on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 01:40:31 PM EST

I'm as grown up as you are. Merely being factual here. All you have to do is check it up and you'll see. I am all for engaging in sensible chats here as much as I am on other sites, so I will try as much as possible not to indulge in your abuse and name callings (won't break my bones!). Some Hillary supporters go on proObama websites and throw demeaning words while few others actually engage in meaningful discussions. Hoping to find that few here, that's all. It's good to engage in discussions with people that may agree with you not healthy to surround yourselves with people that'll always agree with you. Hmmm, something worth pondering!

Parent

: correction (none / 0) (#108)
by madeinUSA on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 01:42:12 PM EST

meant to say that it is good to have discussions with people that may disagree with you!!

Parent
: Did I miss something here? (none / 0) (#112)
by djcny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 02:15:47 PM EST

"so I will try as much as possible not to indulge in your abuse and name callings"
What are you talking about? Are we reading the same blog...where's the name calling? Where's the abuse? Just relax.

Parent

r u a college kid? (1.00 / 1) (#73)
by TalkRight on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:52:09 AM EST

that would explain a lot

Parent

: No (5.00 / 4) (#88)
by standingup on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 12:16:29 PM EST

just the newest Obama troll registering to agitate when bad news hits for Obama. We really need to learn to not engage with these folks.

Parent

Endorse much? (none / 0) (#60)
by rooge04 on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:39:36 AM EST

/snark

Parent

Edwards (none / 0) (#24)
by DaveOinSF on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 10:59:15 AM EST

Do you think there will be much of an Edwards nostalgia vote? I saw a recent poll in NC and Edwards was still getting about 10%. I'm concerned people voting for Edwards will sap votes from Hillary.

Parent

: His name isn't on the NC ballot (5.00 / 3) (#29)
by ChuckieTomato on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:12:00 AM EST

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: I havent seen much (none / 0) (#96)
by AlSmith on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 12:38:03 PM EST

but my being a middle aged parent I dont travel in every circle.
I think Edwards support was deepest among the Raleigh lawyers, who are pragmatic and wont waste their support, and with the Kuchinich voters who were looking for someone more presentable. I haven't heard his name in weeks.
Based on my limited contacts, I'd guess no one is pinning for him.

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Rev. Wright May Help Sen. Clinton By Default (5.00 / 4) (#4)
by PssttCmere08 on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 10:41:00 AM EST

It appears he is not helping Obama in any way.
Susan Rice was on MSNBC this morning fielding questions about Wright and I thought she was gonna pop a blood vessel.

The Crosstabs (5.00 / 2) (#8)
by andgarden on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 10:43:01 AM EST

are here.

Independent voters (5.00 / 4) (#10)
by madamab on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 10:49:34 AM EST

are going to HRC. She's tapping into the electoral motherlode.

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: I feel (5.00 / 7) (#23)
by AnninCA on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 10:59:13 AM EST

vindicated! I knew she'd get that Independent Vote. Drove me nuts to see him credited.
There's more fiscal conservative Independents today than far left.
That's the group to target. And she's got the perfect plan fiscally for them.
His discussion on taxes was devastating. It hasn't gotten much attention, but he really, really blew it.

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Thanks (5.00 / 2) (#21)
by ineedalife on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 10:56:36 AM EST

16% among AA voters for Clinton? If she does that in NC she can keep it to single digits there. Even pull it out. No wonder the Obama race bait team went bonkers this weekend.

Also it is tied in Northern Indiana which should be Obama's stomping ground. If he can't clean up in his own backyard it won't look good.

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eeeeek! (4.00 / 0) (#40)
by Josey on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:23:55 AM EST

Clinton's advantage is steady among women, steady among voters age 50+, and steady in Southern Indiana, which borders Kentucky.
Obama is gaining ground among voters under 50, where he leads for the first time; among liberals, where he leads for the first time; in Northern Indiana, where he is tied for the first time; and in Central Indiana, where he has cut Clinton's lead in half.
Clinton, by contrast, is making steady inroads among Independent voters.

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: After a week of Rev Wright all over the tube (none / 0) (#120)
by stefystef on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 05:11:44 PM EST

Obama will LOSE ground in Indiana and North Carolina.
Watch the polls after Wednesday.

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Couple Of Encouraging Statistics In That Poll (none / 0) (#102)
by MO Blue on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 12:48:51 PM EST

A larger percent of Clinton's voters have already voted by mail and also a larger percent say that their vote is firm and they will not be changing their mind. Obama support definitely looking softer and more vulnerable to media etc.

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SUSA (5.00 / 2) (#11)
by DaveOinSF on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 10:49:34 AM EST

SUSA may be the world's greates pollster, but this poll shows a couple things that I've seen repeatedly from SUSA. They cancel each other out with respect to the final vote, but they give you pause about the crosstabs.

SUSA probably underestimates Obama' portion of the Black vote - they're calling this 80-20. They never seem to pick up the 92-8 ratio that eventually materializes.

Also, again, SUSA appears to undersample women, including only 52% in this poll.

: Maybe that's why (5.00 / 1) (#15)
by madamab on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 10:50:50 AM EST

they had her at 8% in PA instead of 10%. Not enough women in the survey.

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: that 78% (none / 0) (#26)
by Turkana on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:01:17 AM EST

really jumps out. i don't know enough abouyt indiana to say whether they undersampled women, but that 78% seems ridiculously low.

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: I agree (none / 0) (#91)
by AnninCA on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 12:25:19 PM EST

with you about the caution.

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Be still my heart! (5.00 / 3) (#13)
by vicsan on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 10:50:26 AM EST

Go, Hillary!

IMO, Rev. Wright is only going to make her numbers go UP in Indiana AND in NC. His timing couldn't have been better for Hillary's campaign. :)

And here's ANOTHER poll with HRC up 9! (5.00 / 4) (#14)
by Universal on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 10:50:39 AM EST

New AP poll!:

Clinton up 9 on McCain in new AP poll!!:

http://www.villarrealsports.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?p=571#571

Obama is only up 2, and that is BEFORE the Wright World Tour!!

Damnit, we are going to win this thing!!!

WOOO-HOOO!!!

Wow (5.00 / 2) (#22)
by AnninCA on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 10:57:22 AM EST

Hang onto your hats!

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but but but but but (5.00 / 4) (#28)
by Militarytracy on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:09:48 AM EST

Barack is bored with this stuff, how can you continue to not understand that? Sheesh! The race is over Kay? She didn't win Kay? Sheesh!

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Bored but not boring president (none / 0) (#38)
by zebedee on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:20:55 AM EST

If he does make it to White House, could we expect that he might get bored with the mundane job of sorting out the economy and spend all his efforts on the excitement of the world stage where the foreign media would drool over him?

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He's been bored before (5.00 / 2) (#48)
by Militarytracy on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:31:48 AM EST

Sen. Obama Was Bored At His First U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Meeting. "Listening to a bloviating colleague at his first meeting of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Obama slipped a three-word note to a member of his staff: 'Shoot. Me. Now.'" (Ben Wallace-Wells, "Destiny's Child," Rolling Stone, 2/7/07)

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: More and more (5.00 / 2) (#56)
by stillife on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:36:56 AM EST

he's reminding me of Bush. Remember when he passed that note to Condi Rice at a UN summit, asking for a bathroom break?

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I believe, (5.00 / 1) (#17)
by DaytonDem on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 10:53:14 AM EST

at least in the primaries, that his ceiling in these breadbasket states is 45%. He may be able to change that in the GE, but I don't see a path.

Don't worry (5.00 / 2) (#25)
by Militarytracy on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:00:41 AM EST

after Rev Wright gets a bit more digested she'll win by more. Clinton is the candidate of my choice but that guy Wright, Oh My God. I'm always asking to much wanting my candidate to be the one selected because she has the best developed, most reality based helping the little people policies, and because she can do it all from day one.

I (5.00 / 6) (#33)
by sas on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:16:01 AM EST

pray everyday that Hillary will be our next President. My family needs the healthcare and Social Security. I do not trust Obama with either.

are you sure that Obama will win (5.00 / 2) (#35)
by TeresaInPa on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:16:49 AM EST

the African American vote at 90-10? Is there a possibility that even African Americans will start to question his long association with Wright and his inability to divorce himself from this guy? It is my opinion that most Black people would NOT attend Obama's church and some, particularly women will start to break away as the community is not, despite the way the voting has been going, a monolithic voting block.

AP- Ipsos new National no.'s Clinton 50 McCain 41 (5.00 / 2) (#52)
by Salt on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:34:57 AM EST

From AP-Ipsos poll:
Clinton 50, McCain 41
Obama 46, McCain 44

Cheers me a bit hope it stays there over the next two weeks ....

: Starting to Pull Away (5.00 / 2) (#59)
by Petey on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:38:59 AM EST

That AP-Ipsos poll is the important news of the day.
Stuff like that's what is what's going to move the superdelegates.

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Tie-Breaker! (5.00 / 1) (#53)
by Petey on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:35:51 AM EST

If Clinton wins IN by 9, she's going to win the White House.

Why DID Obama call IN a "tiebreaker"? (5.00 / 1) (#79)
by jawbone on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:56:51 AM EST

I can imagine him saying he thinks it's a must win, but calling it a tiebreaker gives leave to delegates to change their votes from him to Hillary.

Maybe he is tired of it all. Presidenting might not be all that much fun...

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: Arrogance. Hubris. (5.00 / 2) (#86)
by Petey on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 12:06:47 PM EST

"Why DID Obama call IN a "tiebreaker"?
Because The Official Obama Spreadsheet said that Obama was going to win IN.
I don't think Team Obama has made a single correct decision since mid-February.
Plouffe's belief that The Spreadsheet and The Math meant they could stop running an active campaign as of mid-February will go down in history as one of the stupidest bits of campaign strategery of all time.
They had this thing in hand. And now they've lost control.

Parent
: also, PA & NC (none / 0) (#124)
by angie on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 07:35:36 PM EST

He said it before PA -- Hillary was expected to win PA, and Obama is expected to win NC, so IN would be "the tie breaker." I hope he lives to regret that statement.

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18-34 sample (5.00 / 1) (#62)
by grrchapelhill on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:42:15 AM EST

can anyone explain why the sample of 18-34 y/o is 23% (this is the only age group he wins, btw-by30) I haven't seen any exit poll where they come near that # in any state. It is also 3 pts more than the 4/13 poll that had her up 16. I'm not suggesting this is wrong, I'm just not a statistician....what's up?

BTD, just curious, do you still think (none / 0) (#16)
by FlaDemFem on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 10:52:55 AM EST

that Obama is the more electable in the GE of the two Dem candidates? If you have changed your position, I missed the post. Just curious, since you have a fairly good handle on the numbers and how they crunch.

: BTD admits his argument is looking weaker, ... (none / 0) (#117)
by cymro on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 03:19:04 PM EST

see his post on the AP Poll, today:

I must admit that recent events are making my Obama electability argument, particularly the Media darling Teflon argument, look weaker.

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AA vote percentage (none / 0) (#27)
by zebedee on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:07:42 AM EST

This would seem to underestimate the BO vote amongst African Americans if you believe the exit polls which typicall show something like 92% lately However, I'm not sure why everyone thakes these as gospel as the sample is not that different to a typical poll like SUSA. And I would suspect a reluctance of AAs to admit in person to voting for HRC may make the exit polls unreliable (many AAs voting for HRC might decline to answer).

OTOH I would be surprised that HRC is really 9% ahead at this stage

: Pa A-A exits said 90-10 (none / 0) (#44)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:28:23 AM EST

And if he got higher than that then that means he got even worse than 63-37 amongst whites.

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: That would explain... (none / 0) (#87)
by ineedalife on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 12:07:40 PM EST

why the exit polls consistently over-estimate Obama's share of the vote. Perhaps you've hit on it. AAs not willing to admit they voted for Hillary.

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Another way to look at this (none / 0) (#36)
by magster on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:18:24 AM EST

is she got no bounce from PA.

Ha. HRC definitely got a PA bounce (5.00 / 1) (#51)
by Cream City on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:33:49 AM EST

if you look at the national polls. The effect in Indiana may be slower or may not happen, for reasons having to do with the state -- a very interesting one in terms of quite split media markets. Indiana also is famous for being quite split about whether to follow the rest of the country, of course, in such new-fangled ideas as daylight savings time.:-)

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This has been interesting primary (5.00 / 1) (#61)
by Edgar08 on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:39:48 AM EST

Momemtum is literally non-existent.

No huge bounce from winning Iowa or 12 states in a row.

No huge bounce from winning Ohio or PA by 10+ points.

Strange race, eh?

All the advantages of having a Primary schedule stretched over 3 months simply aren't in effect. It's almost as if states are being defiant and individualistic instead of following the state before them.

It's refreshing I think. Don't you?

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: Agree (none / 0) (#109)
by madeinUSA on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 01:48:24 PM EST

Definitely refreshing! many here may not like that but it is!

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Are you sure? (none / 0) (#39)
by Militarytracy on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:20:59 AM EST

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Actually probably right in IN (none / 0) (#70)
by Marvin42 on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:49:39 AM EST

Which goes to the whole point that the demographics are frozen. But I am not sure sure there is no bounce in NC, let's see.

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Are we (none / 0) (#103)
by AnninCA on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 12:49:21 PM EST

beyond the "bounce" stuff?

I suspect so.

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Tie-breakers are the opposite of boring! (none / 0) (#55)
by Ellie on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 11:36:22 AM EST

Never been one for numbers crunching, poll-watching (or developing voter profiles and movement) but the twisters of hot air going up around them have been pretty wild to witness.

big orange was saying that his pollster (none / 0) (#118)
by thereyougo on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 03:21:17 PM EST

has obama doing better than the SUSA poll, that SUSa is the polling of a small amount of people who voted alredy

A good place to post this? (none / 0) (#123)
by Molly Pitcher on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:25:49 PM EST

"Democratic white women in particular, from the early Baby Boomers to those born before women could vote, are also more likely to be feminists. Many of their lives are in part defined by the women's movement." (Politico, 4/27)

That hits what I have been thinking, but let's put it this way: "more like to have been feminists
AND activists." We got a durn good start with Eleanor, you know. I grew up with "My Day" and the jokes about all the places Eleanor visited. And there was her backing of the Marian Anderson concert, bucking the DAR. She'd have marched for MLK and taken a teenager by the hand right up the steps of Little Rock.

The article concluded by saying we older women want to see a woman president before we die. Right on! (If it is true (as I suspect!) that the repugnants are the ones with wealth, I guess they have the wives who stayed home, baked cookies, and didn't make waves for ERA. Not many trophy wives among my friends!)

SUSA IN Poll: Clinton By 9 | 124 comments (124 topical)

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