Advantage - Hillary:

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton holds a 50 - 41 percent lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama among likely Pennsylvania Democratic primary voters and runs better against Arizona Sen. John McCain, the likely Republican nominee in Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 53 - 41 percent lead in a March 18 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. In general election match ups of the three largest and most important swing states in the Electoral College, the survey finds.

    * Florida: Clinton 44 percent - McCain 42 percent; McCain beats Obama 46 - 37 percent;
    * Ohio: Clinton beats McCain 48 - 39 percent; Obama gets 43 percent to McCain's 42 percent;
    * Pennsylvania: Clinton tops McCain 48 - 40 percent; Obama leads McCain 43 - 39 percent.

The primary vote between Obama and Clinton splits sharply along racial lines, with her advantage coming from stronger support in every contest from white voters. For example, Clinton leads 59 - 34 percent among white Pennsylvania likely primary voters, while Obama leads 73 - 11 percent among black Democrats.

"When it comes to November, Sen. Hillary Clinton's strength is a big edge over Sen. Barack Obama among white voters, who have not given a majority of their votes to a Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson in 1964," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute."

More than a third of voters in the three states think Obama's race is an advantage, more than twice the number who think it is a disadvantage. By contrast, roughly a quarter of voters say Clinton's gender is an advantage, and about the same number think it is a disadvantage.

"Former Democratic vice presidential nominee Geraldine Ferraro's assertion that Obama's race has helped his candidacy finds some support among the electorate," said Brown.

"At least for now, Sen. Clinton's argument that she is the better general election candidate in these key battleground states appears to have some validity," said Brown. "In this survey, her strength among white voters is why she runs better against Sen. McCain than does Sen. Obama.

"Roughly one in five Democrats in the three states say they will vote for McCain against Obama, but less than 10 percent say they would vote for McCain over Clinton. Among white Democrats, 23 percent defect to McCain in a matchup with Obama, but only 11 percent defect when Clinton is the Democratic candidate." Pennsylvania

Among Pennsylvania Democrats, Clinton leads 54 - 37 percent with women, and ties Obama 46 - 46 percent with men. Obama leads 51 - 42 percent among voters under 45 years old, while Clinton leads 54 - 37 percent among voters over 45.

By a 48 - 42 percent margin, Pennsylvania registered voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton. Obama gets a 49 - 31 percent favorability and McCain gets 47 - 31 percent.

"Sen. Clinton's imaginary snipers, Rev. Wright, Geraldine Ferraro, these events have taken only a small toll on Sen. Clinton's lead in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Her strength is her clear advantage among white voters - blue collar whites, less educated whites, economically hurting whites, that group known famously as Reagan Democrats in the Keystone State. Obama is marshalling all his forces, but despite his eloquent dialogue on the race issue, Pennsylvania Democrats are unmoved. So Far."

The economy is the most important issue in their vote, 46 percent of voters say, followed by 23 percent who list the war in Iraq and 14 percent who cite health care.

Looking at the most important quality in a candidate, 30 percent want a strong leader and 26 percent want someone who is trustworthy.

Being black is an advantage for Obama, 32 percent say, while 15 percent say it's a disadvantage and 47 percent say it makes no difference.

Being a woman is an advantage for Clinton, 26 percent say, with 25 percent saying it's a disadvantage and 45 percent saying it makes no difference.
Florida

In a general election match-up, McCain trails Clinton 44 - 42, too close to call, but handily defeats Obama 46 - 37 percent.

"The difference between Clinton and Obama in Florida is the white vote," said Brown. "She gets 38 percent to 50 percent for McCain, but Obama loses to the Arizona senator 54 - 27 among white voters. If Obama does get the nomination, how he fares with whites will be crucial to his chances."

The economy is the most important issue to Florida voters, 44 percent of voters say, followed by 19 percent who list the war in Iraq and 14 percent who cite health care.

Twenty-nine percent say a strong leader is the most important characteristic they seek in a president, while 27 percent say trustworthiness.

Being black is an advantage for Obama, 35 percent say, while 15 percent say it's a disadvantage and 44 percent say it makes no difference.

Being a woman is an advantage for Clinton, 24 percent say, with 25 percent saying it's a disadvantage and 47 percent saying it makes no difference. Ohio

Clinton's 48 - 39 percent lead over McCain puts her clearly out in front after several months of see-saw, too-close-to-call results.

Men split with 43 percent for McCain and 42 percent for Clinton, but women go with her 53 - 35 percent.

In an Obama-McCain matchup in Ohio, women back Obama 44 - 40 percent as men split, with 44 percent for McCain and 42 percent for Obama.

Despite Clinton's edge in the match-ups, she is not as well thought of overall as her two competitors. Ohio voters split 47 - 45 percent in their opinion of Clinton. By a 45 - 37 percent margin, voters have a favorable opinion of Obama. McCain gets a 42 - 33 percent favorability.

"The favorability data indicate that her lead may be in part due to higher name recognition. This is not a good omen as the other candidates become better known," said Brown.

The economy is the most important issue in their vote, 44 percent of voters say, followed by 22 percent who list the war in Iraq and 17 percent who cite health care.

"The economic concerns of voters make Ohio a tougher challenge for McCain than has traditionally been the case for Republicans, who have never won the White House without carrying Ohio," Brown said. "But Obama's weakness among white men is an indication that he has not yet closed the sale among the lunch bucket brigade."

Ohio voters split in the most important quality they want in a candidate, with 28 percent looking for someone trustworthy and 27 percent looking for a strong leader.

Being black is an advantage for Obama, 36 percent say, while 14 percent say it's a disadvantage and 45 percent say it makes no difference.

I agree that he is polling well in those states and I don't dismiss that, but Obama is a political neophyte that has only ##ONE## general election victory to point to: Beating clown opponent Alan Keyes in Illinois.

In the primaries, outside of Wisconsin, Obama has never shown an ability to reach beyond his base and appeal to the broad electorate. Therefore, I don't really know that there is any actual evidence at the ballot box to believe that Obama can win in those red states.

Clinton on the other hand, has a track record she can point to: Not only being apart of Team Clinton in '92 and '96 and racking up the broadest electoral support since Johnson in '68, but she has demonstrated in two statewide Senate elections and in the primaries that she can appeal to a broad electorate.

Also, I don't think Obama has a great shot at VA, but if it exists, it's only marginally stronger than Hillary's.

And he'll be looking uphill at McCain in all the traditional swing states.  And I think Post-Wright MO is impossible, and post-vote-gate FL is impossible and MI is darn tough.

Clinton can probably swing AR.  So that nearly equals the EV's of Obama's CO pickup.  But true she won't expand the map in any other way.  And she may require the expenditure of resources in OR and WA, so that's not good for her.

But she will be roughly on par with or even looking downhill at McCain in all the traditional swing states.  That is good.

To me the Clinton map is a more winnable map.  Particularly post-Wright.  I think Obama has peaked, and his shot at reconstructing our party alignment is not going to materialize.

Colorado I could see Obama winning.

That's it. That's all the Obama could bring to the table that would distinguish him electorally from Hillary.

However, it seems to be that for all 3 candidates the picture just can't be reliable this early in the game.

So much could happen, positive or negative (mostly negative) between now and the general election.

We of course have to make our decisions with the information we have now, but I'm not even convinced that these numbers would stay the same after a nominee is selected. I would expect either Clinton or Obama to get a significant bounce after becomming the nominee.

Also, hopefully McCain will get more scrutiny after Clinton and Obama finish tearing each other down and rally behind each other.

I agree that the picture as it stands is clear, but I'm dubious about how stable a picture it will be going forward.

Demography has indeed been destiny so far for the Democrats though so that may continue.

There are two distinct and valid electability arguments now.

I could probably manage 35 or 40 all by myself!

It seems to me the only thing to be taken from these polls - especially the consistency in some of these big swing states - is that Hillary starts off stronger there than Obama.  Doesn't mean he can't win them or she can't lose them, it's a long way to November.  But it does seem that each of their primary strategies - her focus on big states, his on smaller ones - has some effect on their relative support in the GE, when her states are more critical to Dem hopes.  And the vote count thing does seem to be killing him in Florida.  All hail the forty-eight state strategy, baby.

Not in the polls which have Obama doing slightly better than Clinton against McCain.