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PA, FL and OH

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:31:10 AM EST
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A new Q Poll confirms that Hillary Clinton is the stronger Democratic candidate in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania:

Florida

Clinton 49, McCain 41
McCain 44, Obama 43

Ohio

Clinton 48, McCain 38
McCain 43, Obama 42

Pennsylvania

Clinton 51, McCain 37
Obama 47, McCain 38

Key finding:

Among white working-class voters, Clinton ties McCain 45 - 45 percent in Florida, leads 46 - 40 percent in Ohio and 48 - 40 percent in Pennsylvania. These same voters back McCain over Obama 51 - 34 percent in Florida, 49 - 34 percent in Ohio and 45 - 38 percent in Pennsylvania.

Of course this is not to say Obama can not win these states (though I think he can not win Florida). Just that Clinton has a better chance of winning them.

By Big Tent Democrat

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    PA, FL and OH | 101 comments (101 topical)

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    So that proves it (5.00 / 2) (#3)
    by Stellaaa on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:33:57 AM EST
    Obviously we have to go with him cause it would be a sure loss and it would make the DNC leadership so proud.  

    Don't be so sure (5.00 / 2) (#4)
    by Marvin42 on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:37:20 AM EST
    The poll makes it seem like he could win, so the leadership may mess up twice and we may win! Woohooo! Go weaker candidate! :)

    Parent
    oh man (5.00 / 2) (#7)
    by ccpup on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:38:25 AM EST
    those white working class voter numbers are gonna hurt.

    I'm curious how many SDs who were inching toward announcing for Barack this weekend now find themselves, in light of these numbers, ignoring their phone when "AXELROD" comes up on the Caller ID.

    BTD, time to recalibrate your argument (5.00 / 8) (#9)
    by Jim J on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:40:48 AM EST
    as to who is most electable?

    Hard to be president when you lose Ohio and Florida. Doable, but darn difficult.

    His argument seems to be that Obama would (5.00 / 2) (#16)
    by Joelarama on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:45:55 AM EST
    get fairer treatment by the media in the general.  But what if Mr. Wright refuses to leave the stage.  Reading Digby's post on the matter makes me wonder if Obama can shake him off.

    Parent
    Even with that in mind (5.00 / 2) (#19)
    by Marvin42 on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:48:23 AM EST
    If Sen Clinton is doing this well getting treated unfairly doesn't that kind of kill the underpinning that better media treatment=win?

    Parent
    Very good point (5.00 / 1) (#36)
    by BigB on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:00:24 AM EST
    Exactly, if she got fairer treatment she will be doing a lot better.

    Parent
    Yes, yes, yes... (5.00 / 1) (#49)
    by AnninCA on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:12:59 AM EST
    this is good news, frankly, for the media.  They aren't all that powerful after all.

    Neither is money.  

    I like it.

    Parent

    yes, and I have stated this other times. (none / 0) (#35)
    by alexei on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:00:00 AM EST


    Parent
    Maybe if he busts out his shoulder brushing (5.00 / 2) (#34)
    by Joan in VA on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:59:46 AM EST
    move, it will do the trick!

    Parent
    Yahoo News Headline (none / 0) (#57)
    by BarnBabe on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:15:50 AM EST
    Obama says the public is tired of hearing about his former pastor.
    So if Obama says so, let's move on. Maybe his Crazy Old Uncle has finally been neutralized.

    In the meantime, I think he will lose the GE because the media might like him, but the older white workers and seniors do not like him. Thus, one vote for Tweety and 5 votes lost from my Aunt, Sister-in-law, brother, neighbor, and me. All site the same reason. Not qualidied and not enough experience.  

    Parent

    He was probably bored n/t (none / 0) (#61)
    by DJ on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:17:47 AM EST


    Parent
    Yes, BTD (none / 0) (#84)
    by Chimster on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:36:04 AM EST
    Are you going to let us know when you've go from leaning Obama to leaning Hillary. If your point in supporting Obama was that he was more electable, does this change the game a little?

    Parent
    This election is turning out to be (5.00 / 2) (#10)
    by eric on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:41:11 AM EST
    about the economy.  This is why Clinton wins in these states.  If you are concerned about your finances or your job, you don't need to be inspired, you need help.

    Is Clinton pandering with this gas tax proposal?  Sure.  But Obama isn't even bothering to pander.

    IMO its a rejection of a seemingly myopic view (none / 0) (#30)
    by Salt on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:58:20 AM EST
    of a Dem Platform marred in 60s Social Justice that is out of touch and disconnected from what most American's believe they need.  I would also suggest there has been a bad miscalculation on the DNC and Democratic Leadership's part on how far an anti Bush electorate could take them, anything goes has gone to far, again.  Also any thought that Dems and or the country is ok with a Speaker Pelosi House as the most powerful leader and body in the Country is wrong.

    Parent
    I agree (5.00 / 1) (#66)
    by Step Beyond on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:20:17 AM EST
    The DNC seems to think that they are running against Bush and that will give them victory along with a feel good vibe. And although tying McCain to Bush would be helpful, it simply as easy as they think. And people would appreciate an intelligent, competent leader especially dealing with the economy.

    So they would be wise to really focus on the economy. Tie McCain to all Bush's economic plans, but also to really put forth a detailed plan on the economy. A series of YouTube videos explaining those plans (complete with Ross Perot charts and graphs) combined with commercials touching on one point (explaining the concept as quickly and yet intelligently as time permits) and pointing to the even more detailed and comprehensive videos available online.

    Parent

    Absolutely (none / 0) (#51)
    by Step Beyond on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:13:12 AM EST
    It will be economy, economy, economy in the general. People don't have to like you, to believe that you're the best for the economy and thus gain their vote.

    From The Buzz regarding that poll:

    "Florida voters give Clinton a 49 - 40 percent favorability rating, with 47 - 36 percent for Obama and 51 - 32 percent for McCain. The economy is the most important issue in their vote, 50 percent of Florida voters say, with 22 percent who list the war in Iraq and 10 percent who list health care. If Clinton is elected, 44 percent say the economy will get better. If Obama is elected, 38 percent say the economy will get better. Only 24 percent say the economy will improve under McCain.

    More like McCain, but more think Clinton will do the best job on the economy. Obama beats McCain on the economy as well. A smart campaign would play to that and ride it to victory.

    Parent

    if we lose (5.00 / 1) (#33)
    by Capt Howdy on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:59:28 AM EST
    Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, we lose.

    Well. .. (none / 0) (#42)
    by LarryInNYC on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:05:43 AM EST
    this polling shows Pennsylvania in no danger, and Ohio and Florida pretty favorable.

    Parent
    Pennsylvania and "no danger" (none / 0) (#52)
    by andgarden on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:13:25 AM EST
    do not belong in the same sentence. Not until we get MUCH CLOSE to November.

    Same goes for OH and FL.

    Parent

    Now I know what he means (5.00 / 1) (#91)
    by zyx on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:58:45 AM EST
    when he says he's campaigning on "Hope".

    Someone commented on (5.00 / 1) (#95)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Thu May 01, 2008 at 12:21:20 PM EST
    Craig Crawford that "Obama is a superhero that can't quite get out of the phonebooth!"

    I laughed and laughed.  What a picture.

    Maybe by 2012, he'll be able to dawn his Superman tights.

    i would say this about Hillary too (none / 0) (#101)
    by cmugirl on Thu May 01, 2008 at 02:59:46 PM EST
    that is just an ugly picture that is now burnt into my brain!  Oh the pain!  :)

    Parent
    I don't think anyone thinks of Hillary (none / 0) (#102)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Thu May 01, 2008 at 03:11:17 PM EST
    as bigger than life, like they do with Obama.

    Parent
    I'm amazed that (none / 0) (#1)
    by Faust on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:32:34 AM EST
    Obama looks so close in FL

    But, the DNC (5.00 / 1) (#8)
    by 0 politico on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:38:41 AM EST
    doesn't seem to care about FL anyway (snark).

    Parent
    Best showing yet (none / 0) (#2)
    by cannondaddy on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:33:56 AM EST
    in polls.

    Parent
    Who can win the entire country? (none / 0) (#6)
    by MSS on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:37:51 AM EST
    There are 50 states. If Obama can hold the other 46, then he will win the presidency.

    Polls are volatile, and -- particularly during this election cycle -- very unreliable.

    Sure (5.00 / 4) (#11)
    by cmugirl on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:41:22 AM EST
    Because he's gonna bring Utah and Alaska, and Mississipi, and Alabama into the "D:" column....

    Parent
    So what tune do you like to whistle (5.00 / 4) (#12)
    by Jim J on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:41:46 AM EST
    when going past a graveyard?

    Parent
    Hold the other 46? (5.00 / 4) (#13)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:42:08 AM EST
    WTF?

    Parent
    LOL, it's the pinnacle of delusion (none / 0) (#90)
    by diplomatic on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:50:24 AM EST
    That is what we're missing by not being more active on other blogs.

    Parent
    lol. (none / 0) (#100)
    by Salo on Thu May 01, 2008 at 02:28:47 PM EST


    Parent
    is this (5.00 / 3) (#14)
    by eric on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:42:33 AM EST
    snark?

    Parent
    Definitely Not Snark (5.00 / 3) (#31)
    by MO Blue on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:58:32 AM EST
    Based on previous comments, this another well educated, high information Obama supporter.

    Parent
    *blink* (5.00 / 1) (#55)
    by AnninCA on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:14:47 AM EST
    Nobody says AK without kidding, do they?

    There are 400 Dems in Alaska!

    Parent

    Well (5.00 / 1) (#82)
    by cmugirl on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:32:56 AM EST
    If you count the seals, polar bears, and reindeer....

    Parent
    Well There Have Been Claims By Obama (none / 0) (#70)
    by MO Blue on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:21:44 AM EST
    supporters that he will win the GE by 65% to 35% and his coattails will result in a 60+ Senate majority. When you are reality based all things are possible.

    Parent
    I just spilled my drink. n/t (5.00 / 1) (#46)
    by DJ on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:08:10 AM EST


    Parent
    With Obama's strength in other weak ... (none / 0) (#15)
    by magster on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:45:00 AM EST
    Clinton states like WI, CO and IA, Obama is definitely electable.

    After yesterday's Fox poll showing Obama/Clinton beating McCain/Romney 47 to 41, maybe a unity ticket would be the way to go after all, and would give Obama another couple of points in these states while keeping Obama's strength in the states I listed above.

    Are there polls (5.00 / 1) (#18)
    by eric on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:47:45 AM EST
    that show Obama winning in WI, IA, and CO?  I realize he did well in the caucuses, but how about against McCain?

    I am here in MN and Obama did very well in the caucuses but I would be very suprised if he has a lead over McCain if they took a poll here.

    Parent

    Pollster.com (none / 0) (#32)
    by magster on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:59:27 AM EST
    has the averaged polls in head to head matchups in various states against McCain.  Just rechecking now, Obama leads and Clinton is behind in WI, IA, MN, MI, and CO.  I only rechecked just now those 5 states.

    Parent
    That site is missing some polls in WI (5.00 / 1) (#56)
    by Cream City on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:15:50 AM EST
    I know.  It's probably still barely Obama, but only barely -- and who knows after the "bitter" and "cling" in this God and guns state, plus . . . the Rev. Wright will have huge impact here.  And let the Ayers and Dohrn stuff fester, as Dohrn is from Wisconsin with a name that still strikes fear in hearts here where campus bombers killed a young father -- I wouldn't count on it for Obama by fall.  The Republican crossover that massively went his way for fun in the primary won't go for either Dem then.

    Considering that Clinton's (horrible then) campaign had one day in the state, bring her back and it could flip her way in Wisconsin.  There really hasn't been a good test yet here to figure it out.

    Parent

    add up (5.00 / 1) (#62)
    by sas on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:18:46 AM EST
    the electoral votes in those states

    do they add up to ohio and fla?

    no

    Parent

    WI, CO And IA Have A Combined Total Of 26 EVs (5.00 / 1) (#72)
    by MO Blue on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:24:22 AM EST
    FL, OH and PA have a combined total of 68 EVs.

    Parent
    Obama Ain't Winning Colorado (5.00 / 1) (#98)
    by dissenter on Thu May 01, 2008 at 01:04:36 PM EST
    That is delusional in my opinion and I live here. He will get smoked in the front range, the majority of the mountain communities and on the western slope. Obamabots also apparently don't realize how much military is here either. They seem to think you win the whole state by winning Aspen, Denver and Boulder. Not.

    Hell, I won't even vote for him and I'm a lifelong dem.

    Parent

    thanks (none / 0) (#43)
    by eric on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:05:55 AM EST


    Parent
    hey magster (and everybody), what's your take on (none / 0) (#94)
    by lookoverthere on Thu May 01, 2008 at 12:19:43 PM EST
    Ward Connerly's effort to put an anti-affirmative action initiative on the ballot in CO?

    Some articles for background at Ms. and ColorLine.

    Strong animosity is brewing over upcoming November elections in Colorado, because of a controversial anti-affirmative action initiative making its way on to the ballot. If adopted, the amendment would end all affirmative action programs, including equal opportunity measures in higher education and public employment. Similar anti-affirmative action initiatives have also been introduced in Nebraska, Missouri, Arizona, and Oklahoma.

    Founder of the American Civil Rights Coalition, Ward Connerly, is spearheading this national effort to end affirmative action. The California millionaire has had success in the past with similar measures in California, Washington, and Michigan.

    Basically, if Sen. Obama is the nominee, will Connerly's initiative drive more conservative voters to the polls and negatively affect him and downticket?

    Parent

    What about his weaknesses (none / 0) (#20)
    by cmugirl on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:49:05 AM EST
    in the other 46 states?

    Parent
    Those weaknesses (5.00 / 1) (#27)
    by magster on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:54:43 AM EST
    are dwarfed by the new Clinton scandal: cappucinogate!

    Parent
    What About The Fact That 3 States Are (5.00 / 2) (#39)
    by MO Blue on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:02:59 AM EST
    mentioned in BTD's post? 50 - 3 = ? Along with Obama Rulz, we now have Obama Math.

    Parent
    only (none / 0) (#59)
    by sas on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:16:10 AM EST
    if it is clinton/obama

    Parent
    I love these polls! (none / 0) (#17)
    by independent voter on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:47:26 AM EST
    I believe Obama will be the nominee, and the Dem party is just "going through the motions" with the final primaries. This should not shock anyone here that regularly declares the DNC does not care about FL and/or MI . If they do not care about FL and/or MI why in the world would they care about KY, OR, IN, etc?
    The beauty of these polls is that no one is running against John McCain yet. If Obama is this close (or even ahead of McCain) after the past couple weeks without running against him just imagine how Obama will pull away when he is the nominee.

    And when the GOP turns their real guns on him (5.00 / 2) (#21)
    by Marvin42 on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:50:06 AM EST
    He will do great, because as we have seen he is handling the non-aimed self inflicted damage so well that a coordinated attack will be a breeze! </snark>

    If he is the nominee I predict he loses to McCain by at least 5%.

    Parent

    Well (5.00 / 1) (#74)
    by AnninCA on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:27:57 AM EST
    You have a good point.

    It does appear that the DNC is pandering to the Clinton supporters.

    They pretend to let the voters vote.

    Actually, it would appear that the Potomac rout was the end for them.

    To heck with the rest of the voters.

    I believe the Democratic party is about to get a very big reality check that the rest of the country isn't so impressed by how Maryland votes.

    I truly do.

    I believe we are seeing the end of the Democratic coalition.

    Parent

    The corollary is, of course (none / 0) (#22)
    by cmugirl on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:51:16 AM EST
    that McCain (and the Republican machine) has not started running against Obama either.

    Parent
    And (5.00 / 1) (#26)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:54:32 AM EST
    they aren't running against Clinton either and Clinton is way ahead of Obama versus McCain.

    Parent
    Actually, they have (none / 0) (#48)
    by AF on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:12:30 AM EST
    They have not started running against Clinton though.

    Parent
    They've been running against Clinton. . . (none / 0) (#54)
    by LarryInNYC on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:14:21 AM EST
    for fifteen years.

    Parent
    They actually haven't thrown much at her (none / 0) (#65)
    by AF on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:19:45 AM EST
    In the past 8 years.


    Parent
    No no, they have not (none / 0) (#58)
    by Marvin42 on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:16:00 AM EST
    Have to delusions, this is not running. They have been clearing the small guns. Thermonuclear weapons will be used.

    Parent
    Agreed (none / 0) (#68)
    by AF on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:20:33 AM EST
    I'm not saying there isn't a lot more to come.  But they are getting started on Obama.  And with Clinton, they haven't yet.

    Parent
    And what on earth makes you think there (none / 0) (#23)
    by MarkL on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:52:01 AM EST
    is a political law of gravity which says McCain will sink once Obama is the nominee? Do you remember 1988?


    Parent
    People understand (none / 0) (#24)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:53:28 AM EST
    that he would be running against John McCain.  You can't compartmentalize things like that.

    Parent
    Um, yeah, but... (none / 0) (#60)
    by Eleanor A on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:16:27 AM EST
    The seven points Hillary is ahead is seven points she would not have to work to regain once campaigning did start.  Therefore her, er, hill, is less high.

    Parent
    My imagination must be broken (none / 0) (#41)
    by Joan in VA on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:05:12 AM EST
    or something....

    Parent
    But would that be enough (none / 0) (#37)
    by cmugirl on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:00:43 AM EST
    to counter the already existing Democratic base which will abandon him?

    i will (5.00 / 1) (#71)
    by sas on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:22:45 AM EST
    stay home, or write in Hillary

    i won't vote for mccain or obama - they are both bad choices for me

    Parent

    I have decided how I'm (none / 0) (#76)
    by AnninCA on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:28:56 AM EST
    voting in the Fall if Obama is the candidate.  It's been a months-long struggle.

    But I've nailed it.

    And I'm not sharing.

    Parent

    The existing Dem base will not abandon him. (none / 0) (#47)
    by independent voter on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:10:33 AM EST
    Granted, there will be some sour grapes, and we cannot count on those folks to support the nominee, but as a whole, he will be supported by the Dem base. It is foolish to think otherwise.

    Parent
    What is foolish (5.00 / 1) (#53)
    by americanincanada on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:14:13 AM EST
    is taking democratic voters for granted. That is how we lost Reagan democrats in the first place.

    Parent
    What part of "30% of Hillary voters (5.00 / 1) (#63)
    by Eleanor A on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:19:12 AM EST
    will stay home" or vote write-in or McCain do you folks not understand?

    That's a finding that's being consistently reported in polls, and anecdotally confirmed virtually everywhere.

    Especially if you're planning on trying to win without Florida/Ohio, even a 2% loss of the base means you lose the election.

    Which is why I'm worried about both of them, frankly.  Obama loses the nomination and A LOT of people who ought to know better will show their asses in public in major fashion (Donna Brazile, I'm pointing at you).

    Parent

    Over-winning (none / 0) (#92)
    by AnninCA on Thu May 01, 2008 at 12:05:39 PM EST
    is dangerous.

    Obama has over-won with delegates.

    He's beaten down the rest of the Democratic party with his Potomac rout.

    OK........

    But I think most people will just abandon the party as irrelevant in their own lives and skip voting entirely.

    It's too rigged.

    Parent

    And in part because of a party (none / 0) (#69)
    by Cream City on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:21:10 AM EST
    that was perceived as about social justice for some at the cost of others.  It was a wrong perception, it was unfair -- I'm a social-justice voter -- but we have to clarify the message better this time to e about economic benefits for all of a full democracy, now that it has become about social justice again.

    Parent
    Clinton's appeal (none / 0) (#78)
    by AnninCA on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:29:58 AM EST
    is much broader, obviously.

    His is focused and doomed.

    Parent

    Oh, my (5.00 / 1) (#64)
    by AnninCA on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:19:23 AM EST
    You are missing the real issue.

    Obama won't take the older Dem voters.  Period.  And they are far too savvy to be angry voters.  They'll just vote their pocketbook, and that will be McCain.  Obama has threatened to privatize SS.

    Believe me......he won't win that voter bloc.

    Obama won't take the Independent Woman vote.  Done deal.

    Obama won't take the Jewish Dem vote.  They don't buy his repudiation one minute.

    Obama won't take the Pocket-book Dems.

    They'll just tune into the football game and stay home.

    Obama won't take the Latino vote.  He'll get some....but not enough to take the Western Swing States.

    He's absolutely toast.

    Parent

    You forgot LGBT n/t (none / 0) (#75)
    by Eleanor A on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:28:50 AM EST


    Parent
    Mea Culpa (none / 0) (#86)
    by AnninCA on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:42:10 AM EST
    I'm so not cool.  I repeat.

    :)

    Parent

    You certainly speak for a lot of (none / 0) (#79)
    by independent voter on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:31:19 AM EST
    disparate constituencies. Must be tiring keeping up with the sentiment of so many groups of voters!
    Unless, that is you are an older, female, Jewish/Latino, Independent Dem football fan with a pocket-book.

    Parent
    And the Asians (none / 0) (#80)
    by felizarte on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:31:56 AM EST
    in California, florida, Michigan, New York, Massachussetts.

    Parent
    Latinos (5.00 / 1) (#88)
    by AnninCA on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:44:00 AM EST
    are more significant, to me, than AA voters in terms of minority issues.

    And that's not a racist view, it's a viewpoint about what's top of the agenda right now.

    It's immigration.

    That's the group being cut out by the Dems right now.

    They will not forget this.  It's a true betrayal.

    Parent

    I think we need to lose the... (none / 0) (#96)
    by smott on Thu May 01, 2008 at 12:25:01 PM EST
    BO will privatize SS. While he did once state that everything was on the table, ijn his stump speeches he now specifically states he will NOT do that. He will move around caps such that rich folks pay more.


    Parent
    Some folks (none / 0) (#50)
    by DJ on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:13:11 AM EST
    actually vote for who they think will be the best president.  I think Hillary will be the best president.  I do not think Obama is strong enough.  And the way the MSM, DNC and Obamacamp have conducted themselves it would be very difficult for me to vote for Obama.

    Parent
    I'm a PA voter (none / 0) (#67)
    by sas on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:20:31 AM EST
    I will register independent if it's Obama

    Parent
    Count me (none / 0) (#73)
    by cmugirl on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:26:20 AM EST
    I'll vote downticket, but Obama will not get my vote.

    Parent
    Same here. (none / 0) (#103)
    by NWHiker on Thu May 01, 2008 at 03:26:11 PM EST
    Will vote and send $$ downticket, will not vote, or work for Obama. Worked -or took over dh's "chores" so he could work- in past elections, not this time. No family/leisure/vacation time given up for Obama, I'm that pissed.

    Parent
    Replying to my own post... (none / 0) (#104)
    by NWHiker on Thu May 01, 2008 at 03:26:44 PM EST
    I'm in Washington state. He doesn't need my vote.

    Parent
    I'm a democrat from California (none / 0) (#77)
    by felizarte on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:28:56 AM EST
    and I will vote McCain if Obama is the nominee and seeing as to how the party has been unfair to Clinton.

    Parent
    Excellent, sound decision n/t (none / 0) (#81)
    by independent voter on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:32:50 AM EST


    Parent
    Why? (none / 0) (#83)
    by cmugirl on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:35:54 AM EST
    Since Obama has not proven he would be any better than McCain on so many issues - the others, well, we have no idea.

    I don't think the SNL skit about Obama calling Hillary at 3 am was really that far off....

    Parent

    I Really Wish (none / 0) (#38)
    by The Maven on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:02:06 AM EST
    that we could also get some recent polling for the potential matchups in Michigan, since there's been only one poll that I'm aware of in the past five weeks, and that one (by EPIC-MRA) had the hard-to-understand finding that Obama would edge out McCain, while Clinton would lose to him by nine points.  I'd be very interested to see if anyone else came up with numbers like those.

    While no one should ever become too reliant on polls, they are one important gauge of comparative electability.

    Frankly, this tells us what we have to do (none / 0) (#40)
    by andgarden on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:04:52 AM EST


    Yep, this is the real "Math" (none / 0) (#87)
    by diplomatic on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:43:01 AM EST


    Parent
    There is no path (none / 0) (#45)
    by DaytonDem on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:07:13 AM EST
    to victory without Ohio, Pa., and Florida (and in my opinion Michigan without their votes counted) or at least two of the three in November. Once again, standard disclaimer that I may be wrong about my state, but Ohio is a non starter for Sen. Obama.

    She has a better chance of winning them (none / 0) (#85)
    by diplomatic on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:38:35 AM EST
    Despite not being the media darling!  Those polls looks downright frightening for our chances in November if Obama gets nominated by ostrich farmers like superdelegate Joe Andrew.

    Just another reason (none / 0) (#89)
    by stillife on Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:44:25 AM EST
    why she should drop out.

    She's making Obama look bad!

    Obama can't win any of those states. (none / 0) (#93)
    by stefystef on Thu May 01, 2008 at 12:13:08 PM EST
    Especially Florida.  

    Obama looks good only to liberal Dems right now.  I think he's lost at least half the independents and most Clinton supporters won't even vote in November.

    Obama is tearing up the Democratic Party.  But this shouldn't be a surprise.  Rev. Wright, his spiritual mentor, said it clearly-  Obama is a politician and does things for political reasons.

    Obama sucks (none / 0) (#99)
    by AnninCA on Thu May 01, 2008 at 01:53:11 PM EST
    to every real coalition right now.

    The only people who support him are those who frankly fall into into the idea that we don't deserve better.

    The victims.

    He is only attractive to victims.

    Parent

    New Rassmussen Poll has Obama losing PA (none / 0) (#97)
    by Exeter on Thu May 01, 2008 at 12:33:22 PM EST


    Even Gallup notes the big swing today... (none / 0) (#105)
    by white n az on Thu May 01, 2008 at 04:36:15 PM EST
    Gallup Daily for 5/1/08 shows Clinton 49% and Obama 45%

    which is a big swing for Gallup - Gallup on 4/27 had Obama 47% and Clinton 46% which is a 5% swing in just 4 days time.

    It's a 14% swing in 10 days time.

    Just sayin'

    I believe it is all working class voters (none / 0) (#106)
    by desert dawg on Sat May 03, 2008 at 02:03:48 PM EST
    not just whites.  If true, let's start framing it that way.  It's not whites that won't vote for him, it's workers.

    "I find it ironic that Hillary is being done in by the Vast Left-Wing Conspiracy"--Dennis Miller

    PA, FL and OH | 101 comments (101 topical)

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