Obama's self-coronation would seem like an excellent time.

That's as good as the terrain maps showing Clinton winnning the Appalachian mountains.

The idea that his skin color prohibits him from doing that is pure BS.  Which is why I keep saying we need to get away from categorizing these people as nothing more or less than "white voters".  It not only insults them and the kinds of things they think about when they make such a decision, but it also, more importantly, denies Obama access to the solution!

I can snarkily refer to them as "smart voters interested in solutions" but apparently I should stop doing that because that implies that Obama supporters aren't smart.

But I will still put it like this.

The idea that his inexperience and inspiration/transformation based rhetoric (as opposed to solutions based rhetoric) simply doesn't impress everyone might be something worth looking at.

And it won't solve it in November either.  Does he actually know how to appeal to those other groups?  I keep waiting for him to say something appealing, but instead he alienates them further. He has to win them over if he really wants to win.

The longer Obama ignores us, the easier it will be for McCain to reel in those votes, esp considering his stance on immigration.  

So those rural white voters aren't going to be his only problem come GE if he's the nom.

I really think that the "white working class" analysis is missing a key component -- that we are talking about Democratic voters here.  Decades of the GOP's Southern Strategy has pretty much gleaned out of the Democratic party the white working class voters who WON'T vote for an African American.  

In other words, the vast majority of the people who we are talking about are people that would certainly consider voting for Obama if given a good reason to -- its not as if they feel some affinity with Hillary Clinton, who is after all a woman from upper-middle class suburban background, who graduated from Wellesley and Yale law,  Obama isn't giving them a reason, and Clinton has spent the better part of her life learning how to connect with their concerns.

 The people, the culture, the language and even the genetic memory is Appalachian. In a hot Scrabble game we could always come up with odd words from Ancient Early Languages of the now British Isles.  They regularly popped out from some deep tribal memory so we had to use large old Oxfords as the official game dictionary!

Clinton 280 - McCain 241

Also, if you look at the polls in Oregon, there is a HUGE gender gap there with Clinton ahead with women by 7 points and Obama ahead with men by 30 points. Oregon is more about Clinton not connecting with men there then it is about Obama connecting with whites. If she had the time and money to campaign there like she campaigned in PA or in Ohio I think she would cut that gap considerably,  but she's running out of time and money so its not likely that she will be able to close that gap much.

The simple truth is that, for whatever reason, Obama is unable to connect (in large enough numbers) outside the AA and latte crowd.  If he were able to do it, Hillary wouldn't have won the states she's won by the margins she's won, and the groups she's won.  He would be the runaway nominee, ala McCain.

Hoping that he will improve his game for the GE is, I'm afraid, not enough. "if wishes were..."

I think you are wrong about the changes you have so long encouraged in Obama's campaign. He won't do the work.

  He would have done very well to listen to you.  I think about what we know about his life and the little bits we have learned so far about his choices. The more I have read the less I believe them man thinks he has to adapt to voters needs out in the majority.

He still seems like the person looking for short cuts.  In high school calling the coach a racist after bening benched for bad play; and the professor who said he wouldn't put in the work was a racist, too. And the people who objected to his taking credit for the work community members did in his pre-law school days, to winning the Law Review post without ever contributing a word of writing for it.

 And no matter how we think it happened, there is moving from 27% of the Black vote to 92%, mostly in a week without contributing more to the community.

 And nobody wants to talk about it till after Hillary is gone, but the details of the Rezko mess run very dirty and very deep.  When we read the Chicago reporting we learn that Obama has strong connections to the Gov. Rod Blagojevich in their relationships to a large number of the characters who are involved in the indictments and trials just starting to heat up in Chicago.
Campaign  records show a regular pattern of donations to Blagojevich for 25,000 and to Obama for 5,000 from various parties involved in government contracts and each coincides with some movement on contracts or regulatory board actions (or decisions not to act). These parties are tied to the prosecutions just getting going good in Chicago with Fitzgerald and others.

To suit your various confirming data needs, there's tons of stuff waiting to be delved. Google: Chicago Board Games and Blagojevitch, Levine testimony and Rezko Trial, and Obama's law firm boss, Allison Davis re: arranging contributions for contracts.  And Cellini and Rosenburg and the failed low income housing projects and Obama's roll in protecting the owner - his chief fundraiser and property co-owner- against the low income residents.

 This is just the tip of what the Republicans are  getting well versed on. If you don't want to read the Sun-Times and other Chicago papers and blogs, try checking in at Republican web journals and magazines.

 They are ready. They  are learning the  names and especially the nationalities of the contractors/contributors getting letters to regulators from State Senator Obama -the Syrian Rezko and the Iraqi Saddam associate and the Iranian ...you can just see how this is going to go in the General Election.

 We know nothing (not even about how Obama fits in with the original cantractors' plan to run Blagojevich for President till he got exposed and Obama stepped up) and we don't seem willing to learn.

 We excuse the repeated plagerism of speeches and policy plans, the denied substantive connections with people and events significant in his life.

 When William Ayers wrote the grant for the Annenberg Challenge, got it funded and picked Obama to Chair it and worked with him on it for eight years, Obama "just some guy I sat in a few board meetings with".

 Try this NYTimes article(link is too long) Janny Scott, July 30, 2997 "In Illinois, Obama Proved Pragmatic and Shrewd". It tells about some of his Chicago days and some of who is under the bus!

Senator Obama has seemed so unconcerned about currying favor with groups he needs to get voting for him.  He historically underperforms when it is time to do the work of contributing his share or defending his constituencies.

 He has a searchable record of finding the right contacts to get to the short cut, elevating himself and then putting them under the bus.  He has given a great deal of evidence in his wake, if we care to examine it, that his loyalties are not to constituencies, mentors, minor contributors, espoused values, former friends (Even Alice Palmer who picked him for the state ballot to fill her senate seat is campaigning hard for Hillary, from under the bus.)

He won't even give back anything for all of those African American votes. He won't appear associated with Black organizations, institutions, causes or lend his help.

Map of Appalachia

Wikipedia:

Appalachia is a term used to describe a region in the eastern United States that stretches from southern New York state to northern Alabama, Mississippi, and Georgia. Although part of the Appalachian Mountains extend through New England and into Canada, this area is not included in the accepted geographical definition of Appalachia.

Over twenty million people live in Appalachia, an area roughly the size of the United Kingdom, covering mostly mountainous, often isolated areas from the border of Mississippi and Alabama in the south to Pennsylvania and New York in the north. Appalachia also includes parts of the states of Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, Maryland, Kentucky, Ohio,and the entire state of West Virginia. The region contains few intermediate-sized cities, and only two large metropolitan areas are located entirely within the region--Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and Knoxville, Tennessee. (However, the expansive region served by the Appalachian Regional Commission incorporates some additional urban areas, including Birmingham, Alabama, the northern part of the Atlanta metropolitan area, western fringes of the Charlotte area, western fringes of the Piedmont Triad area, western fringes of the Washington metropolitan area and the eastern fringes of the Nashville metropolitan area.)

Generally speaking, the lower class, working class, low-educated, and Seniors prefer Clinton. If, Obama was not on the ticket, Blacks would be supporting her, because, Blacks (unfortunately) are mostly made up of this demographic.  Same goes with most Hispanics. This has less to do about race than about and more about what groups like Clinton.  

And, generally,  speaking as geographical area, Appalachia  is filled with Clinton's favorable demographics.  

The sky is falling!

lol.  OK, had to get that out of my system.  Seems there is a mandated post of the day from BTD:  "Obama has a problem".  And then folk pile on "hey, and that problem means he CANNOT win!"  Which, of course, is not what BTD said, but hey, whatever.

So, let's see, there are, what, 6 months or so until the election? I know that it's silly of me to have confidence that he will work this out and win in November, but, you know, I do have that confidence. I've seen him come from nowhere to beat the establishment candidate with amazing advantages. He isn't winning by as much as I'd liked to see, but still, a win's a win.

Frankly (cause I know you are going to go there) I don't know what he's going to do about this problem.  Nope.  Dunno.  But he's exceeded my expectations so far.  I'm going to hang tight, keep calling people, focus on his strengths, and believe that if more people pay attention, then enough of them will find that they are going to vote for him.

Close call.

April 03, 2008