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Electability MO Style

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:33:19 PM EST
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Because I love to tweak, SUSA GE Missouri polls:

Obama 45
McCain 48

Clinton 48
McCain 46

Just sayin'

By Big Tent Democrat

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    Electability MO Style | 125 comments (125 topical)

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    obama just keeps racking up those losing (5.00 / 2) (#1)
    by PssttCmere08 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:35:19 PM EST
    numbers...think the DNC might take notice sometime soon?

    Not bloody likely (5.00 / 2) (#6)
    by stillife on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:39:03 PM EST
    They're far more invested in kicking the Clintons out of the party.

    Parent
    And Clinton does better in KC and StL than Obama! (5.00 / 1) (#3)
    by Raven15 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:36:36 PM EST


    That Is A Real Shock (none / 0) (#79)
    by MO Blue on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:19:26 PM EST
    Somehow I can't quite believe that based on the demographics.

    Both are doing better at holding on to Dem voters compared to April SUSA poll. Clinton still gets 10% more Dems than Obama but he has gone from losing 27% of Dems to 20%. Both candidates have lost ground among Indies -7% and McCain wins by 60+%. Clinton's biggest strengths against McCain are women and seniors. Obama's biggest weakness is seniors.

    Parent

    that's encouraging (5.00 / 0) (#4)
    by Salo on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:37:12 PM EST
    I assume Obama--at this moment is fairly close in Missouir.

    I had thought he'd slipped badly there.

    Of course, Obama'll prolly lose there.

    aaarrrrgghhhh (5.00 / 1) (#7)
    by Salo on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:40:21 PM EST
    why we having to ight for Missouri this year?

    Parent
    Indeed (5.00 / 1) (#11)
    by andgarden on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:41:36 PM EST
    So much for the inevitable Democratic landslide.

    Parent
    Sad (none / 0) (#88)
    by standingup on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:34:04 PM EST
    isn't, especially considering the support Obama has had from McCaskill, the Carnahans, Jay Nixon (Attorney General) and Susan Montee (State Auditor).  

    Parent
    Obama Improved Since April SUSA Poll (none / 0) (#83)
    by MO Blue on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:24:17 PM EST
    May   McCain 48%  Obama 45%

    April McCain 50%  Obama 42%

    Parent

    And telling people (5.00 / 0) (#5)
    by pie on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:37:36 PM EST
    to go to his website stopping being effective months ago.

    Is he really (5.00 / 2) (#50)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:58:12 PM EST
    nothing more than Kerry's puppet? Does Kerry have his hand up his back or something? Ugh, this is the exact same thing Kerry said over and over in 2004. The Democratic party is insane if they nominate this guy. Repeat the same mistakes over and over again is what I'm seeing here.

    Parent
    I'm fairly sure the hand is not up his back... :) (5.00 / 2) (#58)
    by PssttCmere08 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:00:45 PM EST


    Parent
    Rasmussen has a Flordia poll out tonight (5.00 / 1) (#8)
    by tigercourse on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:40:28 PM EST
    that shows Obama losing it by 10 and Clinton winning by 6.

    That's consistent with what we've seen before (5.00 / 2) (#10)
    by andgarden on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:41:04 PM EST
    Hillary could easily break 300 EV.

    Parent
    BTD, you should stop posting these polls (5.00 / 8) (#13)
    by Kathy on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:42:34 PM EST
    because they hurt Obama's chances to win the nomination.  You are tearing apart the party.  And your ankles are thick.  And--Look!  A shiny penny!

    oh look an elephant riding a unicycle! (5.00 / 1) (#17)
    by Salo on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:44:50 PM EST
    tooting his horn!

    Parent
    Shiny penny! (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by Valhalla on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:45:23 PM EST
    LOL, you are wicked.

    Parent
    Polls (5.00 / 5) (#26)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:48:28 PM EST
    Polls have an Obama problem.

    Parent
    This is (5.00 / 5) (#55)
    by chrisvee on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:00:01 PM EST
    SUSA's last chance to prove they don't have an Obama problem.

    Parent
    LOL! (none / 0) (#117)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:08:24 PM EST


    Parent
    The shiny penny thing... (5.00 / 1) (#27)
    by kredwyn on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:48:33 PM EST
    That's pretty funny.

    Parent
    He is giving the GOP ammunition. (5.00 / 1) (#54)
    by oculus on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:58:49 PM EST


    Parent
    Kathy....yer funny! (none / 0) (#60)
    by PssttCmere08 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:01:51 PM EST


    Parent
    Add this to recent polling in NC, WIS, OHIO,FLA, (5.00 / 2) (#14)
    by kenosharick on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:42:51 PM EST
    ARK,WV,VA,ect. and any superdelegate who votes for him is an idiot who deserves to lose any poliical position they might hold in the Democratic Party. More proof they are throwing this election on purpose.

    I said this on the other thread (5.00 / 0) (#20)
    by Kathy on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:45:54 PM EST
    can you imagine the impact if Clinton went to the Roolz Committee and stated her own case?  Talk about Mrs Smith Goes to Washington (Sen. Clinton Goes to FL?)

    She can use these polls because Obama has been citing polls all along as part of his electability argument.  He opened up that can of worms because he was so certain the tide would not change.

    Rise, Hillary, Rise!

    Parent

    I sd. this on the other thread too: BTD (none / 0) (#39)
    by oculus on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:53:28 PM EST
    as second chair in case she strays from the theme.

    BTW:  Kathy, are you pestering people in Puerto Rico now with your phone calls?  

    Parent

    I pestered yesterday, but not today (5.00 / 1) (#98)
    by Kathy on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:49:52 PM EST
    Chores called.  And I am so bummed that I'll be out of the country soon, so will miss rules committee and PR, MT and SD, dagnabbit.  But, what a wonderful feeling it would be to touch back on American soil and know that our girl has wrapped up the nomination and is taking the fight for core dem values to the street!

    I would say that my 2 hrs of PR calls yesterday were the best yet.  I am going to try to do as much as I can over the next 10 days, even if it's just half an hour here and there.  I think they'll have us concentrate more on MT and SD, but I like to shake it up a bit and do as much as I can.  She is out there battling every single day, and I'll be right beside her every step of the way!

    Parent

    But he's ahead in the pledged delegates. (5.00 / 2) (#25)
    by leis on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:48:04 PM EST
    Does it reaaallllyyyy matter if he can't beat McCain?

    HE WON MORE STATES!!! (5.00 / 4) (#28)
    by Kathy on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:48:48 PM EST


    Parent
    Who cares about MO? (5.00 / 3) (#37)
    by madamab on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:52:52 PM EST
    We have Utah, Kansas, Idaho and Wyoming in our corner!!!!11111

    /sips more Kool-Aid

    Parent

    No (5.00 / 3) (#32)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:49:51 PM EST
    To the DNC and to NBC and to all other things that end with C, the only win that matters is this primary win.

    Parent
    Ya know (5.00 / 1) (#35)
    by txpolitico67 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:51:59 PM EST
    Clinton 42 took MO twice, but I think it's going to be a little harder for either candidate to get MO.  Call it what you will, but I just don't see MO going blue this time.  I feel that MO is lost to the R column, not in the style of say, IN, but moreso like NH or OH.

    On my own blog I said that MO will evolve into the new OH.  As the population centers grow and the southern rural areas of MO move outward, the demographics will mirror that of OH and also PA.

    I think that MO voters will be prized electorates in the coming years.  The primary was basically smack down the middle for both candidates.  There'a something happening in Missouri.

    Should be a lock for Obama, as it (5.00 / 1) (#43)
    by oculus on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:55:05 PM EST
    touches IL.  

    Parent
    Like Kentucky? (5.00 / 2) (#76)
    by txpolitico67 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:13:50 PM EST
    or Indiana?  or the other 7 states (besides the known 50) he's campaigned in?

    Parent
    Does Obama know that? (5.00 / 1) (#77)
    by stillife on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:14:09 PM EST


    Parent
    IL seems to go for Obama in a really big way (none / 0) (#81)
    by bridget on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:22:30 PM EST
    Why is that? Is there a simple explanation for that?

    Not every candidate has so much support in the home state

    And then the regions next to IL are going for him as well -

    He must be very popular in Chicago and IL overall?
    Why?

    Did they ever read that Chicago Tribune article. Did that make any difference? Probably not.

    just wondering

    Parent

    Illinois is a Democratic machine state. (5.00 / 1) (#96)
    by chancellor on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:43:29 PM EST
    I live in Illinois, and I can tell you that the machine has arm-twisted every single Dem to support Obama and to GOTV for him. The newspapers also were very pro-Obama initially (less so now). A lot of pressure has been applied.

    Parent
    Has Obama been on Chicago TV a lot when he was (none / 0) (#107)
    by bridget on Wed May 21, 2008 at 10:07:54 PM EST
    State Rep? Was he very wellknown when the primary started?

    Hillary Clinton is also from Chicago. Did that make any difference at all? Did she get negative PR?

    What about the working class voters. Did they go for Obama as well? I can't remember how that worked out in IL?

    How about the Obama "movement." Did that actually start in Chicago?

    And how about Oprah. Did she and Obama together get a lot of TV coverage?

    I hope it's okay to ask all these questions. I live on the West coast :-)

    Parent

    He was a total unknown (5.00 / 1) (#115)
    by chancellor on Wed May 21, 2008 at 10:58:41 PM EST
    before elected to the US Senate, other than in his own little Hyde Park backyard. He lucked into the Senate when the ex-wife of Blair Hull, the leading Dem. primary candidate, suggested that Hull had beaten her. Then the divorce files of his Repub. opponent, Jack Ryan, were mysteriously allowed to be opened, and it was learned that Ryan liked to drag his wife, Jeri Ryan, to sex clubs against her will. A cardboard cutout could have won that race.

    Obama movement? All advertising hype. He was not a major state player at all, in spite of what Obama blogs might try to insinuate. Oprah? My guess is that they might have been acquainted through church years ago, but any recent Oprah enthusiasm was probably elicited by Obama's big money donors here in Chicago. I understand her ratings dropped off since she first endorsed him, so that would probably explain why we haven't seen Oprah on the campaign trail since.

    Hillary grew up in Park Ridge, a lower-middle class to middle-class suburb, but she really isn't seen as a local girl by the pols. Therefore, Chicago press hasn't been pro-Hillary. Press hasn't really been anti-Hillary, just more pro-Obama.

    Parent

    that was great info, chancellor (5.00 / 1) (#119)
    by bridget on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:45:50 PM EST
    I appreciate it a lot. It's always great to find out about what's really going on in other states from TL bloggers here.

    Obama really did have an easy Senate victory. I remember reading about the problems his opponent had.

    Compared to Obama Harold Ford really did have to fight for his Senate seat. Wonder what he is thinking about all that.  

    I still don't know why Oprah believes Obama is the best candidate for Prez. I saw the clip from that huge Obama campaign rally and her introduction: "Is he the One?" "Yes, he is the One," ... that really made me feel so uncomfortable when I heard it because it had this religious fervor to it. I have never visited her blog but I also read that lots of her fans didn't like her endorsement and complained.

    Parent

    I thought I heard Oprah say they (none / 0) (#124)
    by zfran on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:52:23 AM EST
    met while both on a plane to New Orleans after Katrina.

    Parent
    I want to see what he did to protest Iraq war (none / 0) (#120)
    by Ellie on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:01:06 AM EST
    Is there not one shred of recorded footage of this brave and prescient anti-war self-congratulator organizing, speechifying or even marching?

    Regional or local level will do. C'mon, it's something the majority of people were talking about and/or protesting at the time: surely Obama was there SOMEWHERE.

    No one's explained what exactly he did to earn such massive anti-war cred among his fauxgressive boosters to shriek at HRC the way they do.

    Please, don't tell me his righteous anti-war cred is as flimsy as his record on everything else.

    Parent

    Had Clinton Not Been Branded A Racist, (5.00 / 0) (#100)
    by MO Blue on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:51:29 PM EST
    she had a real chance of squeaking out a win in MO. Under normal circumstances she would have received approximately the same percentage of AA votes as Obama is now. If she was receiving 85% -88% of the AA vote instead of 74%, she would have a larger lead over McCain.

    She is holding her own in SE -4 and Northern -8. she would have won big in St. Louis and Kansas City and lost SW by -18.

    Parent

    Color Me Not Informed, but where is your blog (none / 0) (#64)
    by PssttCmere08 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:04:51 PM EST
    TXPolitico67?

    Parent
    click on my info (5.00 / 1) (#72)
    by txpolitico67 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:09:52 PM EST
    i haven't blogged in a while. but be forewarned.  I do A LOOOOOOOOOOOOT of cussin and I hold NOTHING back on Barack Obama there.

    My blog is my evil alter ego.  Saves me A LOT on therapy.

    Parent

    oh dear, now I can't read it...bwaahahahahahah (none / 0) (#80)
    by PssttCmere08 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:21:14 PM EST
    as if.  That is right up my alley!!

    Parent
    Sorry. Not in my info Psst (none / 0) (#73)
    by txpolitico67 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:11:56 PM EST
    I hope I'm not breaking the rules by doing this:

    http://chicanopolitico.blogspot.com/

    Parent

    Thanks (none / 0) (#75)
    by stillife on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:13:22 PM EST
    I just added it to my links.

    Parent
    Thanks so much! I always enjoy your comments (none / 0) (#82)
    by PssttCmere08 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:22:54 PM EST
    OMG...they make sense and everything.  I have it bookmarked now.  Hope you don't get in trouble.

    Parent
    right back atcha (none / 0) (#106)
    by txpolitico67 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 10:06:53 PM EST
    on my old blog i used to have a pretty big following. alas, i bought a house and not much time for that like i used to.

    too busy here commenting ;)

    thanks for your compliments.  i totally appreciate it!

    Parent

    My pleasure....Isn't It Funny How Time Passes (none / 0) (#110)
    by PssttCmere08 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 10:31:33 PM EST
    so quickly on here?  Seems you just barely log in and before you know it...bedtime.  Anyway, glad I got a chance to meetcha...Thankfully, someone on Huffpo mentioned TL and I have been here ever since with much lower BP readings!

    Parent
    It Sez 60% of Blacks Would Go For Hillary? (5.00 / 2) (#41)
    by PssttCmere08 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:54:07 PM EST
    Thought a certain someone thought the AA's were all wrapped up in a nice little cocoon and were his voters only.  I knew people didn't give AA's enough credit.

    I'm Confused (none / 0) (#85)
    by MO Blue on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:29:51 PM EST
    I just looked at MO poll and it has Clinton at 74% off AA vote with 11% undecided.

    Parent
    You read correctly (none / 0) (#97)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:45:30 PM EST


    Parent
    Any way you cut it...AA's WILL vote for (none / 0) (#111)
    by PssttCmere08 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 10:33:21 PM EST
    Hillary is the nominee; and they will get a much better candidate than obama.

    Parent
    AAs Will Vote For Hillary But Maybe Not As (none / 0) (#118)
    by MO Blue on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:14:37 PM EST
    many as we need to win. In 04, McCaskill got 91% of AA vote and 42% of white vote to win 51% to 49%. In MO 23% variance means you have to pick up more of the white vote to win.

    OTOH Obama doesn't currently meet the threshold of white votes he needs to win even with a large percent of AAs.

    Parent

    I Don't Think Hillary Would Need As Many (none / 0) (#121)
    by PssttCmere08 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:38:35 AM EST
    AA's to win as obama would need in regards to white voters.  Did that make sense or am I just punchy now...  Bottomline, he has more work to do than she would.

    Parent
    Made Sense And Somewhat Agree (5.00 / 0) (#123)
    by MO Blue on Thu May 22, 2008 at 06:14:06 AM EST
    Clinton might have a slim chance but because of the dynamics of the primary, IMO the Dems probably screwed the pouch in MO.

    Parent
    African Americans (none / 0) (#122)
    by DaveOinSF on Thu May 22, 2008 at 02:11:00 AM EST
    They are coming home to Hillary.  They were never really anti-Hillary, just egged on by the race baiting from the creative class.

    Parent
    That makes it six (5.00 / 1) (#52)
    by DaveOinSF on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:58:23 PM EST
    I think that makes it Six states now where Hillary beats McCain and Obama loses to McCain.

    Arkansas (6 EVs)
    Florida (27 EV)
    Missouri (11)
    North Carolina (15)
    Ohio (20)
    West Virginia (5)

    That's 84 Electoral Votes Obama throws away!

    To be fair, Obama does win 2 states that Hillary loses

    Colorado (9)
    Iowa (7)

    So with those 16 EVs, Obama's only actually throwing away 68 electoral votes.

    Despite all the talk from Obamans about (none / 0) (#65)
    by madamab on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:04:51 PM EST
    teh Math!!!, they seem to be very poor at it.

    Parent
    It's only May (5.00 / 4) (#56)
    by DaveOinSF on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:00:17 PM EST
    There's plenty of time for Obama to piss away Pennsylvania and New Jersey too.

    LOL! (5.00 / 2) (#59)
    by madamab on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:01:17 PM EST
    Don't forget McCain's competitiveness with Obama in NY and CA.

    I doubt Obama wins more than 10 states.

    Parent

    this is one of the only blogs (5.00 / 1) (#67)
    by dem08 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:06:24 PM EST
    I read. I see the analysis and the polls and the comments and I think Obama is a non-starter.

    Altercation is fairly much not a partisan blog & I check HuffPo/Slate/Salon.

    I don't understand why anyone, especially BTD, thinks Obama will

    a. get the nomination

    and

    b. win.

    I think Hillary gets the nomination with MI and FLA and Obama and his supporters eventually vote for Hillary.

    I think at least 20% of Hillary's support is for Her Alone. The percentage of pure Clinton voters in the Democratic Party may be 35%, but it is real, and the only way this fight can end without the Clinton Wing walking away is a Hillary nomination.

    She will offer Obama the VP, he will turn it down, and Bill will remind black voters that he is the original and most will come back.

    Chris Bower's latest "Bowers Movement" (5.00 / 1) (#99)
    by OxyCon on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:49:57 PM EST
    "One of the best developments for Democratic Party this nomination campaign has been the dramatic decline of "electability" as a factor in the party's nomination process.

    [...]

    Electability died in this primary season. Good. As long we win in November, it should be a long time before the party is dominated by that unproductive concept once again."

    http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=5921

    h/t Taylor Marsh

    Thanks for the laugh! (none / 0) (#104)
    by standingup on Wed May 21, 2008 at 10:00:57 PM EST
    Bowers has moved from the creative class to the delusional class with that one.  

    Parent
    It's only May, (none / 0) (#2)
    by pie on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:35:52 PM EST
    but I can't see what Obama will do to bring MO around.  Hope and change aren't cutting it.

    People want specifics.

    pie - my dad and I (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by madamab on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:42:52 PM EST
    had a very disturbing conversation last night.

    He said that Obama should be the nominee because he is inspirational and that people don't want an administrator type.

    I can't believe he really thinks Obama's vaporous maunderings are inspirational. Personally, I believe we are tired of bumper stickers after almost eight years of Bush catapulting the propaganda.

    Parent

    Heh (5.00 / 1) (#21)
    by stillife on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:46:35 PM EST
    Your dad should get together with my mom, who says that Obama is a "phenom"!  

    Parent
    Ain't that the truth. (5.00 / 3) (#30)
    by pie on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:49:45 PM EST
    Inspirational?  Well, he doesn't inspire me or my huband, who can't believe that someone is actually considering voting for someone who's had two years of experience in the federal government, especially after Bush.  You remember - Bush was elected president after being the crowned head in Texas, who didn't actually govern the state.

    I'm not living another nightmare.

    Parent

    You folks are supposed to be (5.00 / 1) (#62)
    by oculus on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:02:51 PM EST
    influencing your elders to support Obama.  What happened?

    Parent
    LOL... (none / 0) (#69)
    by madamab on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:07:49 PM EST
    my brother appears to have done that for me!

    If only my mom were alive...she would be 100% in the tank for HRC.

    Parent

    Mike Barnacle said that if Hillary (none / 0) (#125)
    by zfran on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:57:54 AM EST
    would be on ticket as vp that "would make Obama seem ordinary" I personally don't see the "saint-hood" of him...perhaps I'm too level-headed and down to earth.

    Parent
    Obama is improving in MO (none / 0) (#9)
    by andgarden on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:40:32 PM EST
    I had thought that state would be off the map for him, frankly.

    I'm still thinking that his best result is to force an EC tie, unless he can keep NH or flip OH (unlikely).

    It's May. (5.00 / 1) (#12)
    by pie on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:42:02 PM EST
    More fun to come.

    Parent
    My feeling now (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by andgarden on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:43:53 PM EST
    is that Obama bottomed out last month.

    Parent
    You think (5.00 / 1) (#33)
    by pie on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:51:02 PM EST
    he's going to rise like a phoenix?

    Parent
    Icarus. (5.00 / 1) (#47)
    by oculus on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:57:13 PM EST


    Parent
    Heh (none / 0) (#38)
    by andgarden on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:53:10 PM EST
    I hope so, frankly.

    Losing in the fall is not an option.

    Parent

    Ah, but it is, (5.00 / 1) (#45)
    by pie on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:55:55 PM EST
    sadly...

    Parent
    Clearly, it is. (5.00 / 1) (#49)
    by madamab on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:58:04 PM EST
    And as I've said many times before, the Hillary supporters on this blog are not the problem.

    It's the Clinton Dems who will decide this race.

    They're not impressed with Mr. Hope.

    Parent

    I Think That Obama Is Rising Some And Leveling (none / 0) (#89)
    by MO Blue on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:36:24 PM EST
    off now but is very vulnerable to more info on Wright, Ayers, clinggate etc. in the future.

    Parent
    OH (5.00 / 2) (#66)
    by txpolitico67 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:05:51 PM EST
    will not go for Obama.

    I got into this discussion with many Obama folk.  JFK didn't carry OH.  Neither did FDR.

    Guess who did though...twice.

    William Jefferson Clinton.  

    It angers them when I say, "you really think Obama will pull OH when FDR or JFK couldn't?"

    ooooo you should see the steam, LOL

    Parent

    I agree (none / 0) (#18)
    by ajain on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:45:07 PM EST
    Even though he eeked out a win in Missouri during the primary, given the recent events you would think he would do worse than that.


    Parent
    He WAS doing worse than that (none / 0) (#23)
    by andgarden on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:47:02 PM EST
    The bad news for McCain is that he's below 50%.

    Parent
    This is your new theme: Obama and (none / 0) (#22)
    by oculus on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:46:43 PM EST
    McCain go to the House of Representatives.  What a film script.  

    Parent
    With any luck (none / 0) (#24)
    by andgarden on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:47:38 PM EST
    we'd control enough delegations that it would be a formality.

    Parent
    Will Childers vote for Obama? (5.00 / 0) (#36)
    by oculus on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:52:04 PM EST


    Parent
    He can do whatever he wants (none / 0) (#42)
    by pie on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:54:46 PM EST
    in the voting booth.

    Will he support him publicly?

    Parent

    Probably yes (none / 0) (#44)
    by andgarden on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:55:43 PM EST
    First, if there's an EC tie, we elect the President by DELEGATION in the House. That means that each state gets one vote. So yes, the Democrat could--should--get Mississippi's vote.

    Why will he? First, votes like this are strictly party line. It's like voting for Speaker. Second, if he doesn't, Pelosi and Hoyer will strip him of his committee assignments. His constituents will forgive him two years later.

    Parent

    Oh, that voting. (none / 0) (#48)
    by pie on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:57:40 PM EST
    An EC tie?

    Ugh.

    Parent

    Childers is gonna be at the bottom of (none / 0) (#51)
    by oculus on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:58:22 PM EST
    the totem on committee assign. anyhow.  

    Parent
    Here is some unsolicited advice to (none / 0) (#29)
    by oculus on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:49:00 PM EST
    Obama from a Clinton-supporting union exec.:

    ADVICE

    everyone keeps saying he needs (5.00 / 4) (#34)
    by Kathy on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:51:36 PM EST
    to reach out to these voters, but no one says how.  I mean, seriously, we're politically savvy folk here.  What could Obama possibly do at this point in order to change the minds of so many folk who have taken against him?

    He seems to think he can make speeches from his pulpit and heal the nation if not the world.  There has been nothing in his past performance during this campaign that indicates he is nimble enough to pull this off.

    Parent

    He can't (5.00 / 3) (#57)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:00:25 PM EST
    change it. There's nothing he can do. It's cultural and they see him as an elitist.

    Parent
    Number One: (5.00 / 2) (#61)
    by madamab on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:02:15 PM EST
    Seat Florida and MI.

    Two months ago.

    Wait...

    nah, there's nothing.

    Parent

    If Obama wants (none / 0) (#68)
    by txpolitico67 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:06:57 PM EST
    my advice on how to reach out to voters, he can pay me.

    I will gladly share that with him.

    Parent

    BTD (5.00 / 1) (#71)
    by pie on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:09:30 PM EST
    has given Obama plenty of free advice.

    Maybe if he charged him, the guy would think it worthwhile and take it.

    Obama, the best things in life are free.  :)

    Parent

    Again, I have to wonder (5.00 / 3) (#40)
    by stillife on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:53:34 PM EST
    who are the low-information voters?

    "He's going to have to talk about the economy in more specific terms. I know that it's a big theme for him, `Change, and Change we can believe in.' That's fine as a theme. But he has to be much more specific and direct about what do you mean by change. What is truly your economic plan? Spend a little time taking about that. What is truly your health plan?"

    Clinton supporters may not have college degrees (according to the popular meme) but they are pragmatic and looking for real solutions.  

    Parent

    Street Smarts babeeee...keeping your eyes (5.00 / 2) (#63)
    by PssttCmere08 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:03:51 PM EST
    and ears open, having an open mind about learning new things...that is why we excel!

    Parent
    Pesky Details (5.00 / 1) (#70)
    by txpolitico67 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:08:24 PM EST
    I am ALL about the details and the info.  Maybe that's why I am a Clinton supporter.

    Substance over show.

    Parent

    Absolutely (5.00 / 2) (#74)
    by stillife on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:12:26 PM EST
    She's my Senator, but I wasn't automatically supporting her in this primary race.  She won me over with her wonkish attention to detail, her grace under fire and her unflappability.  And now I'm completely in the tank for her.  

    Parent
    Watched him talk policy? (5.00 / 1) (#108)
    by waldenpond on Wed May 21, 2008 at 10:08:06 PM EST
    He started out talking policy and couldn't draw a crowd which is why he started his sermon style.  When he does policy, he reads from cards and looks down the whole time.  It's not pretty.

    Parent
    Is SUSA the gold standard for (none / 0) (#31)
    by oculus on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:49:50 PM EST
    GE polls or just state-by-state pre-primary/caucus polls?

    Hm (none / 0) (#46)
    by Steve M on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:56:24 PM EST
    Isn't this much better than some previous Obama-McCain polls in Missouri?

    Yes (none / 0) (#53)
    by andgarden on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:58:36 PM EST
    It's a relief to me.

    Parent
    What if McCain chose (none / 0) (#78)
    by madamab on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:16:24 PM EST
    Colin Powell as his VP?

    How many states would Obama get then?

    (For the record - I think he'll choose Huckabee for the religious wacko factor. But it's an interesting thought, no?)

    And one more evil thought - Should Obama be the nominee, I fully expect him to choose a Republican as his running mate. Chuck Hagel probably.

    Chuck Hagel (none / 0) (#84)
    by bridget on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:29:17 PM EST
    have been thinking that for months now -

    BO does admire him.

    If Kerry was ready to consider McCain in 2004, why not. Hagel left the Senate. He is free to serve ;-)

    Parent

    No to Chuck Hagel (5.00 / 1) (#94)
    by caseyOR on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:39:41 PM EST
    He is a conservative Republican. Why would Dems even think of putting him on the ticket? I want to diminish the power and influence of Repubs., not enhance it in any way. I reject Unity.

    Parent
    Dems like me wouldn't but Dems like Obama would (none / 0) (#101)
    by bridget on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:52:31 PM EST


    Parent
    You May Reject Unity But Obama Loves To Unite (none / 0) (#102)
    by MO Blue on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:55:09 PM EST
    with Republicans.

    Parent
    They'd have to get (none / 0) (#92)
    by OldCoastie on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:39:06 PM EST
    Hagel past the nominating convention in August... and that won't happen.

    I'm sure Obama would love to have him though.

    Parent

    What if McCain (none / 0) (#87)
    by magisterludi on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:34:02 PM EST
    asked Hillary?


    Parent
    landslide (none / 0) (#91)
    by bridget on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:38:02 PM EST


    Parent
    Romney (none / 0) (#95)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:40:09 PM EST
    that way he'll carry MA and there's no way Obama can win the election. They were talking about it tonight on Fox news.

    Parent
    That's All The Obama Needs (none / 0) (#103)
    by MO Blue on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:58:09 PM EST
    An extremely conservative Republican as a running mate. That choice could actually get me to vote for McCain.

    Parent
    that thought crossed my mind (none / 0) (#116)
    by cpinva on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:03:46 PM EST
    as well.

    What if McCain chose Colin Powell as his VP? How many states would Obama get then?

    however, given the gen's sell out to the forces of darkness, er, the bush administration, i believe he's a spent political asset.

    it's a pity too, i always had liked and respected him before that speech to the UN.

    Parent

    you (none / 0) (#86)
    by CanadianDem on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:33:15 PM EST
    need to throw'em some more red meat A...the comment totals are dropping here on average.

    Damn (none / 0) (#90)
    by facta non verba on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:37:05 PM EST
    The map just keeps on getting worse and worse for him. What's next? Illinois?

    agreed (none / 0) (#93)
    by CanadianDem on Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:39:16 PM EST
    McCains in trouble.

    Parent
    Heh (none / 0) (#105)
    by RalphB on Wed May 21, 2008 at 10:03:50 PM EST


    Parent
    Illinois 2005 polls (none / 0) (#109)
    by waldenpond on Wed May 21, 2008 at 10:28:31 PM EST
    "When Mr. Obama was running for the Senate, Mrs. Clinton waited out a lightning storm on a tarmac to fly to Chicago for a fundraiser on his behalf."
    But Mr. Obama offered a glimpse into his own competitiveness two years ago when a Chicago television reporter who had come to Washington to interview Mr. Obama informed him that he had snagged a hallway interview with Mrs. Clinton.
    "I outpoll her in Illinois," Mr. Obama said. After realizing his remark had been overheard, he said: "That was a joke!"
    www.nytimes.com/2007/08/03     pfffft.

    Parent
    how.... (none / 0) (#112)
    by mindfulmission on Wed May 21, 2008 at 10:36:55 PM EST
    .... does this show anything?  they are essentially each polling even with McCain, as both are more than within the margin of error.

    A 2% difference in a poll is meaningless.

    This is within the margin of error (none / 0) (#113)
    by Seth90212 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 10:41:47 PM EST
    Besides, polls are meaningless at this point. She's down by 20 nationally against Obama in some polls. So what?

    This electability argument for Hillary (none / 0) (#114)
    by riddlerandy on Wed May 21, 2008 at 10:56:22 PM EST
    ends up being quandary when it is played out.  With Obama in the cross-hairs of the RW death machine, his GE numbers are down.  With Hillary not the focus of the GOP, and folks asked in the abstract if they prefer over McCain, she does well.

    The problem comes when this is taken out of the abstract.  For Hillary to have a chance to capture the nomination, she is going to have to engage in a bare-knuckle fight from now until August.  If those tactics succeed and she is the nominee, she will have torn the party up so much as to guarantee that she cannot be elected.  

    So the idea that, in the real world, here electability is better than Obama's doesn't hold water.

    Electability MO Style | 125 comments (125 topical)

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