Courtesy of the Q Poll.
FLORIDA
Obama 41 McCain 45
Clinton 48 McCain 41
By Big Tent Democrat
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There is not enough time in the campaign to heal the damage he has done. Obama has spent a lifetime burning bridges, and this is one that he cannot go back and rebuild. You can fool some of the people some of the time...
Would YOU not feel better about him? Parent
If he were the type of person to do it, he would have done it by now.
IMHO of course. ;-) Parent
Otherwise, I will vote for Democrats and either write in Hillary's name in protest or vote for McCain out of burning rage against Obama and the DNC.
My neighbors are all Jewish, gay or Latino and none of us wants Obama -- we have all called Dan Gelber our State Senate president and local District 35 Senator to tell him that his support of Obama goes against his constituency here in Miami Beach.
Will he listen? I doubt it. Parent
I say this with the utmost respect: I don't know why you think that Obama has this magical power to just "heal" folks and bring the party back together. You say that he needs to start appealing to Clinton's base, but I don't see how he can do this, nor do I see Obama making any effort to do so. There has been nothing in his past that indicates he has the power to unite. He talks a good game, but he cannot deliver the goods.
I also think folks are so entrenched right now that there is no going back. Speaking for myself, the man could not pass wind without me thinking he'd done it incorrectly. Parent
But, again, what is Obama's grand plan for healing these wounds? Making a new speech? Sending John Edwards to rope them back in? What is he doing right now to heal these rifts? Parent
It worked like a charm.
Armando is right, Obama should fight for Florida. Parent
And Kerry gave him a big assist by being almost as weak as Obama is now. Parent
(you may assume this is snark) Parent
"Obama's campaign refused to talk about who was being considered, but possible options are Clinton; governors such as Arizona's Janet Napolitano, Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas and Tim Kaine of Virginia; foreign policy experts like former Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn, Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd or Delaware Sen. Joe Biden; or other senators such as Missouri's Claire McCaskill and Virginia's Jim Webb.
He could look outside the party to people such as war critic and Nebraska Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel or independent New York mayor Mike Bloomberg. Or he could look to one of his early prominent supporters such as former Sen. Tom Daschle of South Dakota or try to bring on a Clinton supporter like Indiana's Evan Bayh."
So many of these are just terrible choices. Not sure how they made the list. Parent
Worst, most tone-deaf thing ever. But that's what John Kerry almost did. Parent
Meanwhile, the country is sick to death of Republicans.
A Hagel pick will garner the lurv of the Broders of the world, but I don't think the voters will be too thrilled. Parent
Webb or McCaskill would be my bets for VP. The polling of VP matchups released a few days ago was interesting as it showed Obama was strongest when matched up with Edwards in the VP slot. Parent
I like Webb but he's a bit of a loose cannon. Won't happen. McCaskill would be a disaster of gigantic proportions. Parent
As for McCaskill, she just seems kind of lightweight to me. Parent
Let's all remember the nominees get to recommend a running mate to the conventioneers...recommend is not the same as 'pick' or 'choose.'
No Democratic convention is going to OK an R on the ticket...not even with magical O.
And no Republican convention is going to allow a Clinton anywhere near their nominee! A Clinton? Puhleeze! McCain would need a foodtaster after the election because I'd be sending the White House chef my best mushroom recipes! Parent
Maybe JK was fooling himself about that, but he did extend the offer to McCain. Parent
Maybe he was hoping for the Two, Two, War Heroes In One! ticket. Parent
Sheesh!!! Parent
Demonstrable.
Many times over.
A Democrat. Sometimes, even, a brave one. But a political moron if ever there was one.
And a loser. Big time.
Now he's sponsoring Obama as 'the answer.' That alone should tell you something. Parent
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/22/us/politics/22jewish.html?_r=1&th&emc=th&oref=slogin Parent
Also, PA needs him...
And I think he is a big part of the reason either dem would win PA. Him and Bob Casey have already started joint fundrasing for the GE. Parent
The SDs are going his way no matter what. Parent
btw - BTD have you seen Al Giordano's post at The Field where he claims some inside knowledge of a call between Hillary and Obama where she asked for the VP spot and he turned her down? If true it would explain the harder edge to her rhetoric in the last day or two.
link Parent
Al is a good friend but that is just silly. Parent
I doubt that call took place. Parent
that he will win with both FL and MI seated. The SDs are going his way no matter what.
I agree with you. The SD's are deathly afraid of the AA backlash if they choose Clinton over Obama. JMHO
You wrote that he would lose the "nom", which I, not unreasonably took to be short for nomination.
Even assuming that's what you meant, I don't see how it makes any more sense. By allowing the Florida delegation to be seated at the convention based on the disputed primary votes, that means he will lose Florida in the GE? Parent
Even though Obama wins Pennsylvania, Clinton is much better, and Obama loses Ohio while Clinton wins Ohio.
Plagued by a defection of Clinton supporters and white working class voters, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, the leading Democratic presidential contender, trails Arizona Sen. John McCain, the likely Republican candidate, in Florida and Ohio, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today. Sen. Obama is six points ahead in Pennsylvania. New York Sen. Clinton wins handily in all three states. No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College.
In 1960 Kennedy was able get southern states which Obama can't. Gerald McEtee has gone public now about Obama's electability problem. And this is only going to get worse as the time goes by. I'm sure that the 6 points in PA will disappear too. With Clinton supporters having massive defections there's just no way Obama can win a general election.
Wright and "bitter" completely changed the dynamic of this primary. Parent
I should have put a /snark tag on my rant, I guess. Parent
Oh, wait, because we are women. Nevermind. Parent
But he is, Blanche, he is. Parent
I keep saying this...Obama has never fought a truly contested race in his life. That's obvious to anyone who looks at his reactions when he's crossed. The latest example, of course, is his demand that the media lay off his wife.
There is no way...NO WAY he will survive what the GOP throws at him. He has no frame of reference for that. Parent
Republicans can register voters too
The Dems put their heads in the sand in 2004 about voting problems and they are now putting their heads in the sand regarding electability. Parent
I also disagree that the argument should be that Obama should honor the voters of MI and FL so as to benefit him in some way. Clearly, Obama feels doing so will not benefit him, so he is not doing it. I'm sure no one really believes he is blocking the votes out of a sheer devotion to some ROOL. So, that argument is moot.
The argument in my opinion IS very simple. Count. The. Freaking. Votes. It's what we do in America.
Period. Parent
Counting the votes is a major problem...on top of everything else...still. Parent
We're not so great on the whole execution thing since the Republicans got control of the voting apparatus. Parent
My husband says that the dynamic will shift when/if Hil gets out of the race, but I think it's more of a hope than anything else. Parent
How many VPs can he pick to help him improve in all of these states?
John McCain, Republican: 45% Barack Obama, Democrat: 35% Bob Barr, Libertarian: 8% Undecided: 12%
Story
Crosstabs (pdf)
Guess the coronation has already taken place and I missed it. Parent
Oh, and may I also humbly suggest you post strong, yet reasonably polite criticism, since if Hillary wins, we still need the Obamabots to beat McCain & Nader.
Here's my post:
Brought her to her knees?
I don't think so. She may lose, and as an Obama supporter I hope she does, but we don't need to use stupid, oppressive, sexist language to get there. No one brings Hillary Clinton to her knees. And "stubborn support from American women?" If and when Obama wins the nom, how the hell do you expect us to recapture her male and female supporters after insulting their intelligence and dedication? They're about 50% of the Democrats, and you're casually blowing them off with your demeaning characterizations.
And BTW, the 75,000 people? I live in Oregon. Guess what we do on those first hot days of spring... we go outside in droves. That's right, it's been rainy or cool all spring. Yeah, people came to see Obama, and they also came to hear a free concert by a popular local band on the first beautiful, hot weekend we had this year.
Tell the truth, HuffPo. We'll get to the presidency without distortions. More importantly, we need to get there without sexist, demeaning comments about Hillary and her supporters.
Basically, we can't trust the Republican-backed electronic voting apparatus, and we will continue to get sidetracked in future elections by Republican-led state legislatures who are hellbent on disrupting the Democratic primaries by changing the dates in spite of the DNC rules.
This is the DNC's chance to pull the rug out from under the Repub's manipulations, and to establish a new direction to defeat election fraud in America. We need to demand a re-vote in MI & FL, and pay for the cost of a mail-in election that utilizes equipment we already have based on Oregon's successful 100% mail-in process that undermines electronic fraud by establishing an audit trail even in states that used HAVA to undermine that concept. We've already got the infrastructure and policies in place, based on the Oregon model. We've got the voter rolls in both MI and FL, and it's cheaper to do the mail-in than try to repeat the vote. Plus, a re-vote now puts both states back in good standing with respect to the DNC timing of elections rules.
This solution is expensive, but it puts to rest the issues of disenfranchisement, establishes a new standard for reducing election fraud, and creates a route for Hillary to establish that she really is more electable.
What say you, fellow Democrats?
Obama has dragged his feet and now Florida's votes almost don't matter (because he has a substantial lead in pledged delegates and superdelegates)
If Obama gets to the convention with enough votes to the be the nominee regardless of whether FL/MI are seated, and then decides to let FL/MI be seated, that's no different than if he refuses to seat them.
If FL and/or MI only get seated because they won't affect the outcome, then it's like they never got to vote at all.
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Imagine if a retrograde American state announced that women would vote separately from men, and their votes would only be counted if it wouldn't change the outcome.
Suppose this goes on for 10 elections, and 5 times, the women's votes are counted, and 5 times, they are not.
Did women get to vote 100% of the time? (They always got to cast ballots)
Did women get to vote 50% of the time? (Their votes were "seated" with the total 50% of the time)
Or did women get to vote 0% of the time? (Their votes never had any chance of affecting the outcome)
I think the correct answer is 0%. It's not voting if there isn't some chance you can affect the outcome.
If FL/MI are not going to count, then they shouldn't be seated. That makes a mockery out of democracy. Seating people who don't count is no different from shutting down a recount in order to preserve "legitimacy." They need to be seated now or it's not going to matter whether they are in or out.
On the flip side, if FL/MI are not decided until the convention, then everyone will know whether seating them will swing the election to Clinton. The problem with that is that the vote whether to seat FL/MI becomes a proxy for the vote to make Clinton or Obama the nominee. The rules committee won't be able to decide the issue on a principled basis, because the result of their choice will be 100% certain. They won't be deciding the rules, they will be deciding the nominee. And the perception that the Dem nominee is chosen by the rules committee, as opposed to by the voters, will be devastating.
FL/MI has to be resolved now, while there is still ambiguity as to how much it will help Sen. Clinton's chances. Apologies for the length of this post, but I think it's an important point that gets lost in the debate.