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New Puerto Rico Poll: Clinton By 13, 19 Among LVs

A new Univision/El Vocero poll of Puerto Rico has Clinton ahead by 13 over Obama, 51-38 (59-40 among LVs). However, the reporting of the results makes it somewhat difficult to interpret what it all means. For example, the poll says it found that 50% will not vote. Now, that sounds bad for Puerto Rico (where turnout is usually over 80% of the electorate), but imagine 50% turnout in the states in a primary. That is remarkable. I would add that that would project that a million voters will vote on Sunday.

If Clinton wins by 13, and a million voters come out, then Clinton would gain 130,000 in the popular vote contest. Not a bad day at all for her.

The was a Greenberg poll done in the way Puerto Rico polls generally are done - in face to face at home interviews. the likely voter numbers are actually 59-40 for Clinton. This is a meaningful poll.

By Big Tent Democrat

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    Sounds like HRC (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by madamab on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:07:11 PM EST
    may well be on track to do exactly what she needs to do to "prove" her argument to the SD's.

    Will they put their fingers in their ears and yell "La la la, I can't HEAR YOU?"

    Or do they really want to lose in November?

    Well, the argument will be that (5.00 / 4) (#3)
    by MarkL on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:08:19 PM EST
    Puerto Rico doesn't count because they don't vote in November---I guarantee it.
    I wonder how many Boricuas live in the 58 states?

    Parent
    On that point. . . (5.00 / 2) (#7)
    by andgarden on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:10:30 PM EST
    When asked how important is the role of Puerto Rico to define the Democrat nomination, 46 percent said it is very important, 26 percent is something important, 13 percent believed was an unimportant, 14 per percent that nothing is important and 1 percent did not know or did not reply.


    Parent
    IOW, 74% believe it is important. (5.00 / 0) (#11)
    by madamab on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:13:29 PM EST
    La la la la la...we don't need those voters anyway...

    /SD's

    Parent

    Poop! 72%. (none / 0) (#18)
    by madamab on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:19:38 PM EST
    Have to laugh... (5.00 / 4) (#29)
    by huzzlewhat on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:30:03 PM EST
    I assume this is a translation glitch, but I've gotta giggle at the 14% who think "nothing is important." Very Zen. :-)

    Parent
    Also truer than most poll questions :-) (none / 0) (#134)
    by RalphB on Wed May 28, 2008 at 04:00:10 PM EST
    It's the important ... (none / 0) (#149)
    by Robot Porter on Wed May 28, 2008 at 04:54:29 PM EST
    Puerto Rican Nihilist contingent.

    ;)

    Parent

    Doesn't Matter and we need to stop citing (5.00 / 4) (#14)
    by PssttCmere08 on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:16:27 PM EST
    "they are going to say PR doesn't count" because it does Blanche, it does.

    They can say it til they are blue in the face, but it will count no matter how much obamaholics wish it wouldn't.

    FYI...there are many boricuas residing in the 50 states.  I cannot speak for the recent eight additional states!  :)

    Parent

    In New York (none / 0) (#17)
    by madamab on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:19:08 PM EST
    this population is very high.

    A "safe" blue state?

    Maybe not.

    Parent

    LOL! (none / 0) (#8)
    by madamab on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:11:30 PM EST
    And if you see (none / 0) (#23)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:24:08 PM EST
    such idiotic statements, remind the people that the true TRAVESTY is that PR doesn't have a voice in November, then ask them how they'd feel if they had no say in electing their own head of state?  

    Parent
    My guess (5.00 / 1) (#4)
    by cmugirl on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:09:20 PM EST
    They already have their fingers in their ears.  

    All we have to wait for is the temper tantrum and stomping of feet.

    Parent

    They (5.00 / 2) (#6)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:09:54 PM EST
    want to lose. If someone like Rockefeller can support a candidate that lost is state by 41 pts in a primary and will lose to McCain in the fall in his state you have to definitely say they aren't interested in winning are they? It seems to me that they are determined to lose no how they are presented with the facts.

    Parent
    If that's right (5.00 / 2) (#47)
    by Daryl24 on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:57:24 PM EST
    then the question is why?

    Parent
    Because (none / 0) (#71)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:23:24 PM EST
    they are afraid to do the right thing. They'd rather lose with Obama than win with Hillary is my guess.

    Parent
    yup, where are these senators' loyalty. (5.00 / 1) (#49)
    by hellothere on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:58:44 PM EST
    i guarantee the american people don't have it.

    Parent
    I don't think they want to lose (5.00 / 3) (#58)
    by RonK Seattle on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:15:26 PM EST
    I don't think they've read the warning signs of defeat yet, either. Many of them are still caught up in Obama's early wave of big rallies and "goosebumps" speeches, his early appeal to independent voters and disgruntled Republicans, and still have visions of a landslide victory or a generational realignment.

    They're living in the recent past's imaginary near future.

    I also think many of them don't care that much about losing the White House, IF an Obama candidacy brings them dollars, eager young volunteers, and record high African-American turnout in their home states. Those things can win down-ballot races, and that's where most superdelegates' bread is buttered.

    Parent

    So it's not (5.00 / 1) (#62)
    by madamab on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:16:29 PM EST
    wanting to lose - it's not caring enough to win.

    I'll buy that.

    Parent

    or, like my granny used to say (5.00 / 4) (#63)
    by Kathy on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:18:18 PM EST
    "I'm not pretending to listen.  I'm pretending to care."

    Parent
    That is why I do not think we should support (5.00 / 3) (#66)
    by honora on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:19:57 PM EST
    down-ticket Dems that are foolish enough  to support Obama.  The writing is on the wall and it is written in letters big enough that even the SDs should be able to read it w/o their glasses.  

    Parent
    They have to know (5.00 / 2) (#122)
    by KD on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:44:51 PM EST
    These people are professional politicians. Their jobs depend on knowing how people are going to vote. I can't believe that they don't know. They also know that caucuses are easily manipulated by small groups of insiders (I personally think that's why they want to start the process with the Iowa caucus.) and that red state votes may not mean much in the general election.

    I think they wanted to pull power away from the Clintons, but if Obama loses, there will be a big backlash, and the Clintons will end up with even more power and popularity.

    Parent

    And (5.00 / 1) (#139)
    by kenoshaMarge on Wed May 28, 2008 at 04:23:27 PM EST
    I believe that they honestly believe that when push comes to shove all the good little Dems will come home to the party come November. And nothing we say, any of us say, will change that perception.

    Parent
    Well (none / 0) (#76)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:27:32 PM EST
    it's a lose lose for the ones here in GA. Right now Barrow still has a primary opponent in the Dem primary and if he survives that, endorsing Obama is likely to cost him in the general election. He's really put a lot of them in a pickle. Besides, lots of districts are majority AA and getting more AA's to turn out will do nothing for those representatives like Scott and Lewis.

    Parent
    Wha? (none / 0) (#135)
    by Jim J on Wed May 28, 2008 at 04:04:36 PM EST
    Barrow's district is 40 percent African-American. Assuming Obama's on the ballot in November -- which I realize almost no one at Talk Left has fully digested as the likely possibility -- how do you figure his Obama endorsement is problematic (assuming he survives the primary challenge)? This seems like incredibly selective reasoning.

    Parent
    Oh (5.00 / 1) (#158)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed May 28, 2008 at 05:36:27 PM EST
    I've digested the fact that the Dem establishment wants Obama. The problem is that you haven't digested the fact that he's likely to lose in Nov. Remember Carter having a 20 pt lead over Ford in 1976 and what happened in the end? Obama doesn't even have a lead to start with.

    I've heard all this "it's a dem year" before but in the end people are going to vote for the candidate not the party and if you have a bad candidate then it greatly reduces your odds.

    Parent

    You're right about Barrow (none / 0) (#138)
    by andgarden on Wed May 28, 2008 at 04:21:09 PM EST
    His district is like a slightly more black Mississippi.

    Parent
    Did you (none / 0) (#154)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed May 28, 2008 at 05:32:13 PM EST
    read what I said? And since when is 40% enough to win? That's my point.

    Parent
    Are you (5.00 / 1) (#156)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed May 28, 2008 at 05:34:17 PM EST
    aware of the fact that the Virgin Islands was a caucus not a primary?

    Parent
    Thanks (5.00 / 1) (#5)
    by andgarden on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:09:29 PM EST
    My quick google translate provides this:

    On the question of how they feel regarding the candidates, 52 percent of respondents understood that their feelings are very favorable toward Clinton and 42 percent believed the same thing regarding Obama.



    That is a fair translation (none / 0) (#10)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:12:56 PM EST
    The google engineers aren't bad (5.00 / 1) (#12)
    by andgarden on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:15:16 PM EST
    Some of the translation was much less intelligible, though.

    Parent
    Volunteers are working on getting out the (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by nulee on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:11:31 PM EST
    'tombacocos' (BTD please correct me if that is not right! new word for me).  San Juan seems to have a lot but we are starting to fan out over the island as we get close to Sunday.  

    hmmm does the (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by TruthMatters on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:15:30 PM EST
    that memo talk about the pop vote? because if she only nets around 130,000 from PR and she is only up 55,000 when you count FL and MI but give Obama 0

    that means she would be up roughly 180,000 with Obama still having SD,MT and the 230,000 unaccounted for votes from MI.

    hard to make a Pop vote argument then say those 230,000 votes, lets forget about those. hmmmm now its all about the turn out for PR.

    It's easy to make a pop. vote argument (5.00 / 2) (#16)
    by MarkL on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:17:40 PM EST
    that excludes Obama's nonexistent MI total.
    He is the one who prevented MI residents from voting for him. It would be an unprecedented outrage to count votes which were not cast for him.

    Parent
    thats an argument against (5.00 / 2) (#19)
    by TruthMatters on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:20:52 PM EST
    Obama, not the 230,000 voters, remember we don't like punishing the voters for the actions beyond their control?

    if you were one of them wouldn't you want to be counted?

    Parent

    Come on now. (5.00 / 4) (#22)
    by madamab on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:22:57 PM EST
    Obama is the one punishing the voters.

    And in a democracy, we don't give votes to someone who wasn't even on the ballot.

    Parent

    Hot Springs Harriet's comments (5.00 / 2) (#60)
    by Jeralyn on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:16:19 PM EST
    have been deleted. She has been banned as four different users. This account is also now erased.

    Parent
    The troll thing (5.00 / 1) (#127)
    by txpolitico67 on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:47:51 PM EST
    is going to get worse before it gets better.  I am getting more troll traffic on my own blog because of my pro-Clinton views.

    They wanna give me the time and the clicks, fine by me.

    Parent

    The thing is (5.00 / 2) (#38)
    by rnibs on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:46:04 PM EST
    that Hillary's message resonates with people and will be the winning message in Nov.  Obama's hasn't been resonating with the majority since March, and he can't just use her's in Nov.  It won't sound authentic, so her card, which I believe is the winning card, can't be carries believably by anyone but her.

    Basically, it's the economy, stupid, all over again.

    If she's not in the GE, then neither Obama nor McCain will be able to speak convincingly about the economy, because it's not their thing.  Then it just comes down to who they like better, and that will be McCain.

    These are the things that the SD's need to consider, and they are free to consider what ever they want, so, since she's close enough to win the nom., it doesn't matter what the numbers are.  They can still (wisely, imo) chose her, as have the voters, ever since March.

    Parent

    It'll (5.00 / 1) (#44)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:54:08 PM EST
    be more than who you like. It'll also be about who'll keep you safe. Obama absolutely fails on that account.

    Parent
    Al Gore wasn't on the ballot either (5.00 / 1) (#52)
    by ineedalife on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:05:42 PM EST
    But I'm sure alot of those people would have voted for him.

    Face it, Obama wasn't on the ballot of his own choosing. The uncommitted vote should be reported as uncommitted. You can argue later that a certain portion would have voted for Obama, but at least deal with reality first, then the hypothetical. Any total of popular vote should have X for Hillary, Y for Obama, and Z for other. Hillary and Obama both may be represented in the other.

    Parent

    If a politician though takes their name off the (5.00 / 1) (#87)
    by frankly0 on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:36:51 PM EST
    ballot, at least in most circumstances, that really is a special case.

    If in an ordinary election, a politician takes their name off the ballot, or if, say, he doesn't happen to get enough signatures to put his name on the ballot, we don't count votes for him unless, say, people write in his name. Point is, even if the people might have wanted to have voted for him, they didn't do so in fact, and what they would have done had his name been on the ballot really don't count for anything in those circumstances.

    My understanding is that Obama had no obligation at all to remove his name from the ballot, and chose to do so for his own reasons.

    It's certainly not obvious to me that counting any portion of the uncommitted vote as being "intended" for him under the circumstances in MI is really the fair thing to do. I'd really have to have a better understanding of what the real circumstances and obligations were of his pulling his name off the ballot.

    Parent

    No, Obama engineered that (5.00 / 3) (#142)
    by masslib on Wed May 28, 2008 at 04:31:30 PM EST
    farce to embarrass Hillary because he knew he was going to lose.  Let's try for a little intellectual honesty.

    Parent
    Doesn't it seem (none / 0) (#145)
    by frankly0 on Wed May 28, 2008 at 04:36:21 PM EST
    just a bit odd, if Obama took his name off the ballot in order to comply with what he believed was the only correct understanding of his pledge, that he would, apparently, wait until the last possible day to do so? What did he understand on that day that he didn't understand on any of the previous days and weeks and months?

    On the other hand, if he wanted to wait due to reasons of political opportunism, it would make perfect sense for him to wait until the last possible day because he would leave his options open if something came up to keep his name on the ballot until that point.

    Parent

    And Clinton, Dodd, Kucinich And Gravel (none / 0) (#150)
    by MO Blue on Wed May 28, 2008 at 05:00:26 PM EST
    left their names on the ballot. Nothing in the pledge required any candidate to remove their name from the ballot in MI. Obama chose to pander to IA and NH and took his name off the ballot. If Obama supporters did not have  the opportunity to vote directly for him, it was because Obama chose not to give them that choice. He decided that IA and NH voters were more important than MI voters.

    Parent
    The democracy thing (5.00 / 8) (#20)
    by madamab on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:20:58 PM EST
    seems to be getting in the way of Obama's coronation.

    I find it most disturbing.

    ;-)

    Parent

    except that we don't live in a democracy (5.00 / 3) (#48)
    by independent thinker on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:58:03 PM EST
    In fact, we live in a libral democratic republic. We don't actually vote directly for our executive and the same is true of the Democratic Party's nomination process. In the GE we vote and electors are selected to represent us in the electoral college for each state. In the Democratic Party's nomination process we vote and delegates are selected to represent us based on the outcome in each state.

    If you favor a direct democratic-type nomination process then organize to change the process in the party, but don't go around trying to change the prcess in the middle.

    This process isn't just a set of guidelines. It is, in fact a legal process established by the DNC.

    Here's a section of a memo from the Democratic Party's lawyers regarding the Rules and Bylaws Committee:

    "A Democratic Party rules committee has the authority to seat some delegates from Michigan and Florida but not fully restore the two states as Hillary Rodham Clinton wants, according to party lawyers.

    Democratic National Committee rules require that the two states lose at least half of their convention delegates for holding elections too early, the party's legal experts wrote in a 38-page memo.

    The memo was sent late Tuesday to the 30 members of the party's Rules and Bylaws Committee, which plans to meet Saturday at a Washington hotel. The committee is considering ways to include the two important general election battlegrounds at the nominating convention in August, and the staff analysis says seating half the delegates is "as far as it legally can" go. [...]"

    Note...this is all about delegates and delegate counts. There is a reason for that. The current system does not count popular votes per se.

    The Clinton Campaign itself did not begin hammering on the popular vote until it became obvious that they would not have the nomination after Super Tuesday. Then, and only then, did they start talking about it. In fact, when everyone felt that Clinton was surely going to be the nominee, no one, including Clinton, showed any concern of FL or MI.

    Don't get me wrong, this situation is seriously FUBAR, and I hope that in future primaries the DNC makes some changes to its process. For starters, it would be nice if all states ran similar elections (eg: primaries)....or at the very least, if caucus states had to take a head count of participants who attended.

    There are some things to consider about direct democracy. Not the least of which is the disproportionate power that big urban areas would have over rural areas. Say what you want about delegate/electoral systems, but they do provide a little extra leverage to rural voters. This may not be a bad thing. After all, we all buy food grown in those rural areas. We probably don't want their voice lost in the mass of urban voters.

    OK. I'll end this now. Please be nice. I am not trying to convert anyone from their chosen candidate. I simply want to talk about how to improve the process in the future.

    Pease.

    Parent

    I'm always nice! :-) (5.00 / 1) (#59)
    by madamab on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:15:31 PM EST
    The Party Rules are not laws, however.

    And you're right, the nominating process is seriously FUBAR.

    Parent

    madamab....pls forgive me...That 2 rating was (none / 0) (#101)
    by PssttCmere08 on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:00:14 PM EST
    supposed to be for someone else....

    Parent
    LOL...no worries... (none / 0) (#108)
    by madamab on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:13:55 PM EST
    you can always switch those ratings if you'd like.

    I've made many such mistakes myself.

    Parent

    Really? I didn't know that....thanks for the tip! (5.00 / 1) (#113)
    by PssttCmere08 on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:21:01 PM EST
    Sen. Clinton's comments . . . (5.00 / 1) (#96)
    by wurman on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:56:33 PM EST
    . . . in Dec, 2007, & her Press Release from Jan, 25, 2008, both expressly state that FL & MI need to be counted . . .

    . . . & in the Release she references that it is not correct to ignore the voters in FL (i.e., the popular vote).

    The Clinton campaign wants the FL & MI delegations to be represented as a matter of common sense.

    And, using not-so-common sense, EVERY reader here knows that the so-called "popular vote" does not decide the nomination.  It is a common sense argument being used by Sen. Clinton to sway the judgements of the superdelegates.

    At no time, no where, has Sen. Clinton or a surrogate attempted to change the rooolz & make "popular vote" the method of choosing a candidate.

    And the process will not change in the future.  The DNC has no sway over the various state legislatures which establish how people in the various states will vote.  At caucuses in my state the primary selection method was soundly rejected, whomped.

    Parent

    Well (5.00 / 3) (#98)
    by Evie on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:57:11 PM EST
    the lack of direct democracy does not mean that the voters can simply be ignored, dismissed, or disenfranchised.

    This is not about any particular political party. Disenfranchisement should not be acceptable to anyone who values democratic principles. The right to vote is not a pawn to play games with. Neither is it a toy that can be taken away as punishment.

    Over 2 million voters went to the polls in FL and MI to vote, and their votes were never counted. The voters did nothing wrong. Their voting rights must be honored.

    Parent

    I just said the same thing below! (5.00 / 1) (#103)
    by MMW on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:03:38 PM EST
    I couldn't agree more.

    Parent
    really? what about when a... (none / 0) (#115)
    by independent thinker on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:29:50 PM EST
    presumptive nominee emerges early? All those poor disenfranchised voters who don't get their say in election years when a nominee is found early. How many nominating years have there been when states didn't even hold primaries or caucuses because somewhere along the way someone decided their votes no longer counted. No one shed any tears then. Many of the arguements Clinton uses today would apply to those years too.

    Parent
    Irrelevant (5.00 / 3) (#136)
    by Evie on Wed May 28, 2008 at 04:09:04 PM EST
    Does the past make it ok to disenfranchise voters now?

    If the CHANGE that Obama represents is the disenfranchisement of over 2 million American voters, then that is change that this country can ill afford.

    Obama is not going to be able to leave his name off MI and FL ballots in the general election and then argue for a 50/50 split.

    Parent

    excellent points. (none / 0) (#141)
    by independent thinker on Wed May 28, 2008 at 04:27:40 PM EST
    I agree with this. If BO had the number of dels needed without FL and MI we probably wouldn't be having this discussion. However, even though he doesn't have that magic number, he does have the majority of the pledged dels. Even factoring in 50% of FL and MI being seated he still has the majority of the pledged dels. In a contest about delegates, and short of an outright victory, this is the closest thing to it.

    And considering that the only likely way Clinton edges Obama in the popular vote total is by seating FL and MI in the most favorable way possible to her AND by NOT counting 4 caucus states at all, I don't see a clear arguement for the supers to overturn the pledged delegate leader.

    But back to my question in my earlier post: do you believe Clinton would be pushing FL and MI if her postion was reversed with BO's? Be honest. If the answer is no, then tell me again what the justification for her continuing is?

    Parent

    yes, obviously true (3.00 / 2) (#54)
    by Tano on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:10:39 PM EST
    But it wont be hard for Clinton to make the argument none the less. All she need do is continue to claim, as she does, that all the Obama supporters in Michigan DO NOT COUNT.

    And of course, this would have no negative consequence in Nov. were she the nominee...

    Parent

    You mean the way that (5.00 / 3) (#61)
    by Kathy on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:16:22 PM EST
    Obama claims that all her supporters in FL and MI don't count?

    Parent
    almost, not exactly though (3.00 / 2) (#67)
    by Tano on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:20:13 PM EST
    she was the one who said those contests "would not count".

    Parent
    Before he even took his US senate seat (5.00 / 6) (#70)
    by Kathy on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:22:45 PM EST
    Obama said that he was not experienced enough to run for the presidency.  He said he would have to start campaigning, like, right now, in order to do it, but that he was completely unqualified.

    If we're going to go back in time and listen to the candidates' words, those are the ones I would like to start with, because I actually agree with them.

    Parent

    This Is One Thing Obama Said That I Agree With (5.00 / 2) (#105)
    by MO Blue on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:12:15 PM EST
    He is not experienced enough to be president.  

    Parent
    Ugh. (5.00 / 2) (#120)
    by ccpup on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:40:22 PM EST
    Another Republican ad -  "Even Obama himself says he's not experienced enough for the White House.  McCain has that experience ... " -- generously provided by Obama's own recent words.

    The Dem Party and I are damn near over at this point.  Got his bag packed and by the door and am just waiting for him to drive up and waltz into the house as if everything is hunkey-dorey so I can hand him his suitcase and say "sayonara".

    Parent

    Obama is of similar age and has... (3.00 / 2) (#118)
    by independent thinker on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:36:09 PM EST
    similar number of years in elected office as Bill Clinton did when he ran for POTUS. You don't seem to have a problem with his lack of experience at the time. Abraham Lincold had one tern in the House when he became President. No one thinks he lacked the skills to be POTUS. Years spend in Washington D.C. do not necessarily equate to great leadership in a POTUS. Don't get me wrong, I think Hillary has many fine skills to bring to the the office, but don't be so quick to downplay Barack's skills.

    Parent
    Heh (5.00 / 6) (#123)
    by Steve M on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:45:17 PM EST
    It's an impressive bit of spin when Obama's years as a part-time state legislator are equated with Bill Clinton's years as the chief executive of an entire state, with both conflated under the header "similar number of years in elected office."  But I hope you understand what a lame argument it is in reality.

    Parent
    I do not see it that way. (5.00 / 1) (#148)
    by independent thinker on Wed May 28, 2008 at 04:53:23 PM EST
    My entire post was not just about BO and BC's respective years in office. That was just part of it. My larger point, one demonstrated by including Abraham Lincoln, is that years in public office (including governorships) does not necessarily equate with being a good POTUS. There have been many compatent POTUSes who did not have long years of elected office experience who turned out to be great at the job and also bad POTUSes who did have many years of elected office experience.

    And btw...I think Bill was an OK POTUS. However, I definitely do not conflate his experience with Hillary's. She was not POTUS or Governor. She is, however a 1.5-term Senator who happens to be married to a former governor/POTUS. Sorry, she doesn't get to claim executive experience because she is married to one.

    Parent

    The Obama as Lincoln argument (5.00 / 2) (#153)
    by MarkL on Wed May 28, 2008 at 05:22:18 PM EST
    is pretty old now.


    Parent
    Old and very stupid IMHO :-) (5.00 / 1) (#159)
    by RalphB on Wed May 28, 2008 at 05:40:55 PM EST
    I don't think we are permitted to (none / 0) (#163)
    by oculus on Wed May 28, 2008 at 09:00:47 PM EST
    link Obama to Lincoln anymore.  (Whisper:  Lincoln was assassinated.)

    Parent
    Seriously? (5.00 / 6) (#126)
    by cmugirl on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:47:36 PM EST
    That's your argument??  Um, Bill Clinton didn't lack experience when he took office.  He was Attorney General of Arkansas, and then he was Governor for almost 13 years (with a short break when he got voted out, but came back to win again and serve another 10 years).

    Being Governor, even of a small state, brings with it executive experience. While none of the candidates running now have executive experience, Obama's total legislative experience adds up to 8 years as a part-time legislator in Illinois (28 months), and 3 years in the US Senate, 2 of which where he's been running for President.

    This is the silliest comparison I've heard to date.

    Parent

    Please, such a lame argument. (5.00 / 2) (#144)
    by masslib on Wed May 28, 2008 at 04:36:14 PM EST
    Bill Clinton was a 5 term Governor, the most senior Governor in the country at the time, and the head of the Governor's association, giving him experience in national policy.  But really this is just a nonsense argument.  Lincoln was inexperienced, Obama is inexperienced(I, for one, can not even find proof a prior fulltime job) therefore Obama=Lincoln, and experience is no longer even relevant in reviewing candidates for POTUS?  Silly.

    Parent
    I never said experience was ... (none / 0) (#152)
    by independent thinker on Wed May 28, 2008 at 05:18:28 PM EST
    irrelavent. I simply pointed out that experience does not necessarily lead to a good POTUS. harry Truman, widely regarded as one of the worst POTUSes ever, had a lengthy public office career beginning with a County Court administrative post in 1925, US Senate from 1934-1944 and ending with him being VP for Roosevelt in 1944. That was a total of nearly 20 years of elected office PRIOR to becomng POTUS...and yet he was a miserable POTUS.

    I am not saying Hillary Clinton would be a Harry Truman--far from...she really is a good policy wonk. I am merely pointing out that years in office does not automatically make a good POTUS. Obama has some interesting life experience and I like that he lectured on Constitutional law. That is a HUGE plus to me considering the beating the Contitution has taken from the current administration.

    And again, I am not here to change anyone's mind about their prefered Democratic candidate. We will know who the nominee is soon enough. And either way, we need to rally around that candidate, IMO. McCain would be a disaster for us.

    Peace.

    Parent

    Well, I'm discomforted by Obama's (none / 0) (#157)
    by masslib on Wed May 28, 2008 at 05:36:04 PM EST
    total lack of relevant experience for running the federal government.  

    Parent
    Golly gee, (4.00 / 4) (#125)
    by madamab on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:47:03 PM EST
    Unless Obama was suddenly elected governor of the 57th State, that's one of the silliest talking points I've ever heard.

    Parent
    Those Obama comments would make the (none / 0) (#164)
    by bridget on Wed May 28, 2008 at 10:11:33 PM EST
    perfect TV ad

    Hillary should have used it

    bet the Republicans will in Nov. should he be the nom which I hope he wont be.

    Parent

    Since when (5.00 / 1) (#100)
    by Evie on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:58:13 PM EST
    do voting rights depend on what a candidate says or does not say?

    Parent
    Let's see: if she claimed FL should count (5.00 / 1) (#117)
    by wurman on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:33:29 PM EST
    . . . 4 days before they held their primary, does that mean she only started worrying about FL & MI after she knew she had won? Michigan Live link:
    The presidential candidate said Friday -- just four days before Florida's primary -- that she wants the convention delegates from Florida and Michigan reinstated. The national party eliminated all the delegates from those states -- more than 350 in all -- because they broke party rules against holding their primaries before Feb. 5. All the major Democratic candidates also made pledges not to campaign in those states before their primaries.

    And if she's ahead when arguing that MI & FL should count, does that still really, actually mean that she only changed her position when she was behind? Or is down now up?  Same Link:

    Clinton leads Obama in the overall delegate count, 237 to 140, including separately chosen party and elected officials known as superdelegates. A total of 2,025 delegates are needed to secure the Democratic nomination

    There has been no point at which Sen. Clinton did not insist that the votes in FL & MI & the delegates should NOT count.

    Parent

    Yes, this is true, but... (5.00 / 1) (#133)
    by independent thinker on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:56:19 PM EST
    by that time is was becoming obvious that the fight would go beyond Super Tuesday. The virtual encumbent message has not worked and the campaign was retooling for the long slog to where we are now. I'm not saying it was a bad ploy, but Hillary Clinton agreed to the same rules that Biden, Dodd, Kusinich, Richardson and Obama. And those rules stated clearly that only four states could hold there elections in January. Hillary Clinton and all the rest agree to rules that required sanctions for any states that violated the rules.

    Don't get me wrong, I am not a complete rules, rules, rules guy. I can see the problems with FL and MI. Clearly some compromise needs to be reached. From where I sit, the most likely outcome is the FL and MI delegates are cut 50% and FL is seated in the same ratio as the results showed and the MI delegates end up being split in some fashion (perhaps 55% Clinton 40% Obama with the remainder going uncommitted...or more likely 55% Clinton 45% Obama). Is this perfect? Of course not. Is it a reasonable compromise? In my opinion, yes--yes it is.

    PS:  I also believe that Clinton really does favor in a direct popular vote system. She has made comments which imply that view of things that pre-date this nomination season. And that is a debate we should be having for how we as a society want to conduct our democracy. But in the here and now, in the system agreed upon by everyone prior to getting started, Clinton's arguement rings as a little too self-serving. What do you think she would be saying if this situation were reversed? Do you really think she would be pushing for FL and MI in the same way she is now? Be honest.

    And finally...back to PR. I think it is unjust that citizens of the us don't get to vote for POTUS in the GE. Why only states? If a territory or protectory is considered part of the USA, then IMO those people should get to vote.

    Peace.

    Parent

    No. (none / 0) (#162)
    by wurman on Wed May 28, 2008 at 06:52:05 PM EST
    It is not self-serving.

    Her position predates all of the nominating processes, before she knew any "results."

    Further, the FL primary was moved up by the GOoPerz in the legislature to "game" the Democratic Party & create this exact situation.  Sen. Clinton was aware of this at the outset & has argued that the DNC applied the wrong rules.  Her comments at that time in early 2007, however, have not been covered in the media, so I can't reference them to you.

    Big Tent has an entire Post about this, but not from the Clinton point of view--more generally.

    My view is that Sen. Clinton has consistently held a position based on the principles (and a sharp weathereye to the general election) rather than some advantage to her campaign.  She was too far out in front on this one & the Obama campaign has made the contrary into an endless talking point--because they are on the detrimental end of the "fair" or "equitable" or "justifiable" decision.  Sen. Obama's position is in fact totally self-serving & looks unfair on the face of it--although they could just be idiots over there.

    Parent

    There's too many ways (5.00 / 1) (#45)
    by cannondaddy on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:55:12 PM EST
    of counting popular vote.  

    Each SD gets to pick the one that makes most (none / 0) (#73)
    by honora on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:24:05 PM EST
    sense to him/her.  Now, wasn't that easy.

    Parent
    New Michigan poll (5.00 / 1) (#91)
    by ajain on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:45:03 PM EST
    McCain 41 Obama 37.
    They aren't polling Clinton, but its clear Obama has a serious problem in that region and if he loses MI, FL and OH then he has a big, big problem.

    Link

    No VP Candidate Puts Him Ahead Of McCain (5.00 / 1) (#111)
    by MO Blue on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:18:25 PM EST
    either. Edwards brings him within 3%, Clinton and Gore within 5%.

    Parent
    but but but, (none / 0) (#131)
    by txpolitico67 on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:52:54 PM EST
    Idaho, Utah and Wyoming will pull through for Obama.  Did you not witness the sound thrashing he gave Hillary there?

    Governor Sebelius (sorry I don't care to ck the spelling of her name) will deliver KS for Barack as well.

    MI...notta problem.  Let McCain have it! /s

    Parent

    Idaho won't come through for Obama. (5.00 / 1) (#146)
    by masslib on Wed May 28, 2008 at 04:37:09 PM EST
    Ron Paul outperformed him there last night.

    Parent
    Clinton talk on PR (5.00 / 1) (#92)
    by davnee on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:46:02 PM EST
    The Clinton campaign has talked very confidently on the expected result in PR, and for that matter the resolution of FL/MI.  I go back and forth between the explanation for this confidence being (1) the bravado needed to keep the campaign afloat to June 3rd, where if the hope pans out then great and if not then just concede, or (2) that the Clinton campaign knows more than we realize about the ground conditions in PR and/or the backstage wheeling and dealing on FL/MI, and that knowledge has them dropping hints about going to Denver.  I guess we'll see after this weekend.  But I'm impatient of course.  Not to mention still hopeful for the long shot.

    I commented on this earlier. (5.00 / 2) (#124)
    by ccpup on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:45:29 PM EST
    The Clintons are not politically stupid people.  If she's still in, there must be very clear signs that the Nomination is within her grasp despite the Media and Obama's premature Victory Laps.

    I can't imagine the SDs are unaware of the disaster looming in November if Obama is the Nominee ... unless they want Howard Dean and Donna Brazile out of the DNC and this is the best way to do it (a huge loss in November with a joke of a candidate in Obama, that is).

    I get the sense the GE isn't the DNC's focus.  Something else is.  But that something else is driving people away from them and out of the party as well as severely damaging their fundraising.

    And to think Dean was ALMOST our Nominee for President not so long ago.

    Ugh.

    Parent

    Obama (none / 0) (#132)
    by txpolitico67 on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:53:53 PM EST
    may very well be Geo. McGovern 2.0 for the Dems if he goes to the nom.

    Parent
    well said. n/t (none / 0) (#119)
    by Lil on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:39:31 PM EST
    IMO, She can use all the votes she got (5.00 / 1) (#97)
    by MMW on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:56:49 PM EST
    in her argument. Whether the delegates are counted or not, you cannot disappear two million votes and call this a democracy. Nothing will change the fact that these people voted and they have nothing to do with the controversy. They did not move the Primaries, they did not agree to not have their votes count, they did not separate from the US. Those votes MUST be counted as cast.

    If his name was not on the ballot, he cannot receive votes, that is unethical.

    Focus on marginal states (5.00 / 1) (#99)
    by zebedee on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:58:04 PM EST
    In a real election even one vote could determine the winner but here the popular vote overall is a tie as far as moral arguments go, such as "teh will of the voters". A win by 100k or so out of 37m votes is less that 0.3%.

    The real argument is electability, by looking at the popular vote in the swing states. Using the winner-takes-all EV system, she lead 185-117 EVs, using all states that had a margin within 10.85% (this was the biggest swing from 2000 to 2004). With these states, she has received 235K more votes than him. If you give him ALL the uncommitted votes, he leads by just under 3K. Although it's tight either way, the EV distribution makes her a clear choice on electability arguments.

     And this does include IL (swing 10.4% from 00-04), where he got a near 700K advantage but excludes her home state of NY. Unless you think IL could go repub, you could end up with an HRC pop vote advanta of around 1m in marginal states.  

    That turnout number (5.00 / 1) (#106)
    by facta non verba on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:13:01 PM EST
    seems low. Boricuas vote in large numbers. 2.1 million last cycle out of 2.5 million registered voters.

    Tombacoccos (5.00 / 1) (#109)
    by Wry on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:14:26 PM EST
    if I'm not mistaken Tombacocos (I'm not sure I spelled it right) are political parades with music either live or from a sound truck. They are an important part of campaigning in Nuyorican neighborhoods as well.

    OT - regarding Michigan - Kos at DAILY KOS wrote a piece on January 2 of 2008 as to why Obama was wrong to take his name off the ballot. We should distribute it all over - make it viral -This was just before he mysteriously converted over night to an Obama cultist.

    I like the way you think...and Kos sooooo (5.00 / 1) (#112)
    by PssttCmere08 on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:20:10 PM EST
    needs to be taken down a peg or two.  He has just become vile.

    Parent
    I wonder (none / 0) (#2)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:07:52 PM EST
    who the undecideds will go to? If they split them that would be a 12 pt. win for Hillary and yes, netting her over 100,000 votes. Hopefully she will get more than that.

    what's the threshold (none / 0) (#34)
    by Kathy on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:35:45 PM EST
    for her to take 4 of the 6 categories for winning the popular vote?

    Parent
    Depends (4.00 / 1) (#42)
    by waldenpond on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:47:13 PM EST
    Do you count the NV and WA actual primaries or go with RCPs estimates.  Using RCP she needs to net 274k with the last 3 contests.  

    I expect to lose possible 80k in MT and SD (if anyone has an idea on those I would appreciate it, I am going with Obama's estimates of a 15 pt win in SD and an 11 pt win in MT) depending on turnout.  So she needs 274 + 80 or 354k.  It looks like a struggle unless PR has high turnout and MT/SD low turnout.  Still has a very strong argument for momentum at the end of the primary (not to mention the last months)
    RCP

    Parent

    clear as mud (4.00 / 1) (#46)
    by Kathy on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:55:13 PM EST
    not what you said, though, but the "depends" part.

    What a mess.

    Parent

    Ignoring MI? (none / 0) (#78)
    by zebedee on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:28:35 PM EST
    Your 274K number in RCP includes FL but not MI. If you include MI Hillary leads by 54K or trals by 183k if you give Obama all the uncommitteds

    Parent
    RCP metrics (5.00 / 1) (#102)
    by waldenpond on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:00:22 PM EST
    the question was what would Clinton have to do to achieve 4 of the 6 metrics.  The multiple counts refers to RCP.  That is the count I was referring to.  I attached the RCP link.  

    I use caucus estimates except NB and WA where I use actuals and undecideds go to Obama.  By my numbers, Clinton needs to clear 190k.  But my numbers mean bupkus.  :)

    Parent

    The only thing we can be certain of (5.00 / 2) (#104)
    by Kathy on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:07:57 PM EST
    is that Clinton will use the popular vote most advantageous to her, while Obama will use the one most advantageous to him...even as he argues that the popular vote does not matter.

    Yep, a mess.

    Parent

    I think she needs to net 500,000 (none / 0) (#36)
    by nulee on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:38:59 PM EST
    in the next few weeks??  We hope to do this in PR!

    Parent
    Has anyone updated the horserace (none / 0) (#15)
    by Teresa on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:16:40 PM EST
    spreadsheet since Kentucky and Oregon?

    Running it quickly (5.00 / 2) (#21)
    by andgarden on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:22:34 PM EST
    it looks like Obama will have a 50-100,000 pop. vote edge at the end of the day, assuming this poll is right.

    Parent
    Only if you give him the uncomitteds (5.00 / 1) (#24)
    by masslib on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:24:30 PM EST
    in MI.  I don't.

    Parent
    See, this is why I won't (5.00 / 6) (#26)
    by madamab on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:27:14 PM EST
    vote Obama.

    How can we reward a guy who removes his name from the ballot, then expects to be given votes anyway? It's ludicrous and un-democratic behavior.

    If HRC tried to argue that she deserved votes from a state where she'd removed her name from the ballot, she'd be laughed out of existence.

    Parent

    Exactly (5.00 / 2) (#50)
    by rnibs on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:59:15 PM EST
    they would laugh her out of existence, but somehow, the media acts as though he's owed it.  

    Parent
    If you give Obama exit poll #'s instead of (5.00 / 0) (#27)
    by Teresa on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:27:49 PM EST
    all uncommitted, she's within 10,000 with a PR win of 130,000 if I did my math right.

    Parent
    I do neither. (5.00 / 1) (#40)
    by masslib on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:46:20 PM EST
    I go by votes actually cast.  I also dislike any caucus estimates because they are not verifiable, but I will let that slide.

    Parent
    But that is how things will work.. (5.00 / 3) (#82)
    by ineedalife on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:32:39 PM EST
    in the magical new era of the Obamanation.

    I will be able to go into a bank and demand interest on the account I never opened. Because it is a certainty that if I had opened it, it would have earned interest, right?

    In fact, I am going to the bank right now to get that interest those bastahds owe me!!

    Parent

    be careful of bank guards! smile! (5.00 / 1) (#107)
    by hellothere on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:13:23 PM EST
    cool (none / 0) (#129)
    by ccpup on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:50:29 PM EST
    In ObamaLand -- just two short bus stops from Hell, I think -- that tennis tournament I played this weekend (and lost) is actually a win because had I been able to play that 4th Set I would have scored the points necessary to win the Match.

    Okay, looks like someone owes me a huge trophy and an apology!

    Parent

    Same here depending on which WA number (5.00 / 0) (#25)
    by Teresa on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:25:55 PM EST
    they use and if they give Obama all of the uncommitted in MI. She needs a bigger win in PR.

    Parent
    Yup (5.00 / 1) (#28)
    by andgarden on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:29:15 PM EST
    And yes, I do assign the uncommitted to Obama.

    Parent
    If they don't seat the FL 100% (5.00 / 0) (#83)
    by TalkRight on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:33:13 PM EST
    why should Obama get the benefit in MI. He should get 0. I know why people like you and BTD make the case for Obama getting uncommitted but if DNC is being unfair to Hillary in FL, why should we STILL want it to be fair to Obama in MI. This is wrong.

    If DNC seats FL 100%, ONLY then do I agree to give Obama share of uncommitted.


    Parent

    The DNC itself concedes (5.00 / 0) (#86)
    by TalkRight on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:35:55 PM EST
    The basic issue is that party rules leave little room for granting the uncommitted delegates to Obama, because there's no way to verify that the voters were specifically voting for him.

    But they still invent a way to do it.

    Parent

    I prefer the exit poll data (none / 0) (#32)
    by Faust on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:35:29 PM EST
    Why do you use the uncommiteds? Is it just because it's easier for shorthand purposes or is there some other argument for it?

    Parent
    Well, you could use the exit poll (none / 0) (#41)
    by andgarden on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:47:07 PM EST
    but then you should apportion the whole vote by the exit poll, and that would reduce Hillary's total.

    Parent
    Why? (5.00 / 0) (#55)
    by madamab on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:11:30 PM EST
    Hillary was on the ballot. There is no question about her vote total.

    Parent
    For consistency's sake (5.00 / 1) (#68)
    by andgarden on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:22:12 PM EST
    The exit poll indicates that there were people who voted for Hillary that preferred Obama.

    Parent
    Hmmmm... (5.00 / 1) (#75)
    by madamab on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:26:14 PM EST
    looks like my solution is most factual and consistent.

    No votes for the guy who wasn't on the ballot BY HIS OWN CHOICE, and who blocked the re-votes.

    Anyone that was on the ballot and who received votes should get those votes added to his/her total.

    Parent

    My goal is to be fair to the voters (5.00 / 0) (#79)
    by andgarden on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:28:47 PM EST
    and their intent. That is, anyway, the purpose of even considering the popular vote in the first place.

    Parent
    Obama did not care enough (5.00 / 1) (#85)
    by madamab on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:34:49 PM EST
    about his supporters to give them a chance to vote for him.

    A re-vote would have been a great way for him to show he was willing to honor the wishes of his supporters. He blocked it.

    At this point, there is no factual way to determine the intent of the "Uncommitted" voters of MI. If we give them all to Obama, it dishonors the voters who would have voted for the other candidates not on the ballot, now doesn't it?

    Obama doesn't deserve one vote from MI. If it goes red in November, it's entirely his fault for screwing over his own voters.

    Parent

    There is nothing unfactual (none / 0) (#88)
    by andgarden on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:37:10 PM EST
    about the exit poll. The fairest way to apportion the Michigan vote is to use it.

    And no, I am not willing to visit Obama's mistakes on his supporters. With that attitude, we might as well just not count Michigan and Florida at all. It is the inverse of "the contests were illegal!"

    Parent

    We won't agree on this issue... (5.00 / 0) (#90)
    by madamab on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:42:31 PM EST
    but that's okay. Sometimes you gotta agree to disagree.

    Parent
    He removed his name. (5.00 / 2) (#93)
    by MMW on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:50:31 PM EST
    How do you justify giving votes to someone not on the ballot in a democracy?

    This is ludicrous!

    Parent

    I'm probably not being articulate here, (none / 0) (#121)
    by madamab on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:40:42 PM EST
    but I strongly feel that Obama's supporters should not be shielded from the actions of their candidate. They should be fully aware of who they are supporting and why they were not able to vote for him in MI.

    It's about accountability too. HRC, had she removed her name from the ballot in MI, would certainly not be entitled to any votes from that state. I would be furious with her for trying to make that happen, and frankly, she'd probably lose my support for trying to pull such an undemocratic stunt.

    If Obama becomes President, and his policies are harmful to Americans in some way (say, his tax policies hurt the middle class), there will be no DNC to step in and say, "Well, he didn't REALLY mean it. Here, we'll give you a new home and money to buy food and gas."

    Sigh. I hope that makes sense.

    Parent

    Ahhh I see. (5.00 / 1) (#69)
    by Faust on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:22:18 PM EST
    Yes that's quite true. Mmmm. I'll have to think about it more then. Either way has downsides.

    Parent
    Hmmm .... (5.00 / 1) (#116)
    by Inky on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:31:01 PM EST
    It sounds like a Faustian dilemma!

    Parent
    all the Uncommitted Vote in MI? (5.00 / 3) (#30)
    by ccpup on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:32:42 PM EST
    I don't know if the Edwards' voters would appreciate that.

    Parent
    Perhaps (5.00 / 1) (#33)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:35:45 PM EST
    the rules committee will schedule a revote in Aug.

    Parent
    And frankly, (5.00 / 0) (#35)
    by madamab on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:36:11 PM EST
    we are not the ones making the PV argument to the SD's. HRC is. Obama's argument appears to be delegate-based if I understand it correctly, so PV numbers that favor him are moot, in an SD sense.

    I sincerely doubt that HRC will be assigning those MI votes to Obama when she argues her case to the SD's. ;-)

    Parent

    This makes no sense whatsoever. (5.00 / 0) (#39)
    by Faust on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:46:05 PM EST
    One attacks with two prongs, you make your case, and you try to undercut your oppenents case thus:

    Obama pushes the delegate count as being most important and tries to weaken PV arguments...e.g. by winning it according to x,y,z, calculations.

    Likewise

    Clinton pushes the PV argument as being most important and tries to weaken the delegate count argument...e.g. caucus states create delegate problems that are not proportional to popular will and threaten legitimacy.

    Super D's will have to evaluate both sides of both arguments in making their decision (in addition to other factors of course).


    Parent

    I agree... (5.00 / 0) (#56)
    by madamab on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:13:07 PM EST
    I put that poorly. :-)

    I mean to say that HRC and Obama are both using their own counts, and that I think HRC will be putting more stress on the popular vote count argument than Obama will.

    Parent

    Well I certainly can't disagree with that (none / 0) (#65)
    by Faust on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:19:22 PM EST
    :)

    Parent
    Ah, Unity! :-) (none / 0) (#72)
    by madamab on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:23:30 PM EST
    PONY!!!!! (5.00 / 1) (#84)
    by Faust on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:33:54 PM EST
    Is she? Is she even going to be there? (5.00 / 1) (#80)
    by Cream City on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:31:26 PM EST
    The request for the hearing is from the state parties, as I read it.  Not from a candidate.

    Parent
    She is making her case (5.00 / 0) (#89)
    by madamab on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:41:10 PM EST
    through a memo and letter that was discussed on one of the previous threads. Mark Halperin's The Page referred to them.

    I don't know if she'll be there on 5/31 or not.

    Parent

    I hope she does show up at the 5/31 meeting (5.00 / 1) (#110)
    by PssttCmere08 on Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:16:27 PM EST
    I think it is important that she does.

    Parent
    My numbers (5.00 / 1) (#31)
    by lilburro on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:34:40 PM EST
    Obama (at 80% of uncommitteds):
    18,362,987
    Clinton:
    18,273,752

    This includes the IA, NV, ME, WA caucus estimates.

    all based on RCP.  MT, SD, and PR not included, obviously.

    Parent

    Has PR + FL ever been considered? (none / 0) (#37)
    by Exeter on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:43:21 PM EST
    It would swing Florida to the Dems in Presidential elections with extra 500K + Dem votes.  Also, why not have DC join Virginia or Maryland and south pacific territories join Hawaii?

    Well (5.00 / 1) (#74)
    by Steve M on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:25:35 PM EST
    The answer is economics.  Florida surely does not want to absorb PR's economy, any more than MD or VA wants to add however many DC residents to the welfare rolls.

    Parent
    I frankly salivate at the prospect (5.00 / 2) (#77)
    by andgarden on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:28:03 PM EST
    of adding DC to Virginia. It would be like gerrymandering the electoral college.

    Parent
    I agree (none / 0) (#161)
    by Exeter on Wed May 28, 2008 at 05:55:19 PM EST
    Have a 20 year phase-in period where Maryland or Florida can absorb the cost.  I just don't think we need anymore small states-- they are a bad idea and not what the framers intended.

    Parent
    220,000 (none / 0) (#43)
    by DaveOinSF on Wed May 28, 2008 at 01:47:55 PM EST
    I'm thinking she needs closer 220,000 vote margin for a pop vote lead taking into account IA,NV,ME+WA caucus estimates, giving MI uncommitted to Obama, and assuming Obama gets another 30,000 out of SD/MT.  

    She keeps SD/MT to a 10,000 margin and if you use the WA primary instead of caucus and it's about 150,000.


    Actually (5.00 / 1) (#51)
    by DaveOinSF on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:01:59 PM EST
    If we use the WA primary, why not use the Nebraska primary too?

    Obama won the caucues by 12,000 with about 35,000 participants, but the primary by 2,500 with about 100,000 participants.

    So:
    Currently (all states/terr. but WA,IA,NV,ME,NE,FL,MI,SD,MT,PR)
    Obama +444746

    Add WA and NE
    Obama +485779

    Add IA,NV,ME estimates
    Obama +536001

    Add FL, MI
    Clinton +87080

    MI uncommitted to Obama
    Obama +151088

    Guess Obama +30,000 in SD+MT
    Obama +181088

    So that's the margin Hillary needs in PR.

    Parent

    Ach (none / 0) (#64)
    by DaveOinSF on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:18:53 PM EST
    Previous post had error with the IA-NV-ME estimates.

    Currently (all states/terr. but WA,IA,NV,ME,NE,FL,MI,SD,MT,PR)
    Obama +444746

    Add WA and NE
    Obama +485779

    Add IA,NV,ME estimates
    Obama +507615

    Add FL, MI
    Clinton +115466

    MI uncommitted to Obama
    Obama +122702

    Guess Obama +30,000 in SD+MT
    Obama +152702

    Hillary needs that margin in PR

    Parent

    Puerto Rico (none / 0) (#81)
    by Cal on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:32:37 PM EST
    Woohoo, Hill!

    So the bar... (none / 0) (#95)
    by mike in dc on Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:56:14 PM EST
    ...to clear is 13 points?  Obama has to finish closer than that, and Clinton has to win by more than that, for either to outperform expectations?

    That would translate to a rougly 57-43 vote on Sunday, and I think the delegates there are actually apportioned in direct proportion to the popular vote.
    That'd result in a 31-24 split.  If Obama has a 17-14 delegate split on Tuesday, then he nets 41 delegates out of the last 3 contests, and Clinton gets 45.  Plug those numbers into DemConWatch's figures which include FL/MI "as is"(but they allocate 18 uncommitteds to Obama based on their research), and the new totals are:
    Obama 2121
    Clinton 2018

    with 18 Edwards delegates, 33 uncommitted delegates, and 227 superdelegates remaining.

    Obama would need another 88 delegates out of the "pool" of 278 in order to clinch.  Clinton would need another 191 delegates out of the "pool" in order to clinch.  The 227 superdelegates include 34 as-yet-unpicked add-on delegates, and Obama will get at least half of these since many of them are from states he won.

    So, add 17 to each candidate's total.  O 2138, C 2035.  He needs 71 out of 244, she needs 174.

    If he has lined up 3 dozen supers to endorse next week, then he'll only need another 35 out of 208, and she'll still need 174 out of 208.

    At some point next week, it's likely this thing will be finally decided.

    BTD -- likely voters actually split 59 to 40 ... (none / 0) (#155)
    by cymro on Wed May 28, 2008 at 05:32:28 PM EST
    ... according to the report of this poll by Pollster.com

    that is what I could not figure out (none / 0) (#160)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed May 28, 2008 at 05:44:49 PM EST
    that makes it a 200,000 vote spread.

    Thanks!!

    Parent