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WaPo Poll:: Independents Split Between Obama and McCain

In its first poll taken since Hillary Clinton dropped out of the presidential race, the Washington Post finds Independent voters are split between Obama .

n the first Washington Post-ABC News poll since the Democratic nomination contest ended, Obama and McCain are even among political independents, a shift toward the presumptive Republican nominee over the past month. On the issues, independents see McCain as more credible on fighting terrorism and are split evenly on who is the stronger leader and better on the Iraq war. But on other key attributes and issues -- including the economy -- Obama has advantages among independents.

The presumptive Democratic nominee emerged from his primary-season battle against Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton with improved personal ratings overall, but with no appreciable gain in the head-to-head competition with McCain. Majorities view both men favorably, but about twice as many said they have a "strongly favorable" impression of Obama as said so of McCain.

What does th poll mean? The Washington Post says:

bama still has some work to do to unite the Democratic Party. Almost nine in 10 Republicans now support McCain, while not quite eight in 10 Democrats said they support Obama. Nearly a quarter of those who said they favored Clinton over Obama for the nomination currently prefer McCain for the general election, virtually unchanged from polls taken before Clinton suspended her campaign.

[More...]

Obama still has some work to do to unite the Democratic Party. Almost nine in 10 Republicans now support McCain, while not quite eight in 10 Democrats said they support Obama. Nearly a quarter of those who said they favored Clinton over Obama for the nomination currently prefer McCain for the general election, virtually unchanged from polls taken before Clinton suspended her campaign.

Consider their feelings on the Obama portion of the match-up:

As Obama considers possible vice presidential running mates, Clinton remains atop the list: Unprompted, 46 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents pick her as their top choice, and no other Democrat breaks out of single digits. But it is unclear from the poll whether Clinton would help or hurt Obama's chances. About two in 10 said her placement on the ticket would make them more apt to support the Democrats, but about the same proportion said it would push them toward the GOP. Most said it would not make much of a difference either way.

McCain also has problems:

Dissatisfaction with the direction of the country hit an all-time high this month, with 84 percent saying the nation is now seriously on the wrong track. And asked which party they favor for the House this fall, 52 percent said Democratic and 37 percent said Republican.

Obama does have one advantage:

Overall, 13 percent of conservatives are very enthusiastic about McCain, compared with nearly half of liberals who feel as strongly about Obama.

But he also has a problem:

Experience appears to be Obama's clearest weakness. Despite winning a grueling primary-election contest, he has gained no ground on the question of whether he has the experience needed to serve effectively as president. Just 50 percent of Americans said Obama has the necessary experience, almost the same as in early March.

McCain also has an advantage:

McCain's clearest advantage on the issues is on dealing with terrorism (he has a 14-point edge).

On the other hand, Independents favor Obama on domestic issues.

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  • Display: Sort:
    Hmm... (5.00 / 2) (#2)
    by Esme on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 04:31:29 AM EST
    Unprompted, 46 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents pick her as their top choice, and no other Democrat breaks out of single digits.

    The problem is, as much as I want Hillary for VP, people vote for the top of the ticket, not the VP. I'm not convinced that putting Hillary on the ticket would deliver the Presidency for Obama.

    Moreover, I think the whole Solis Doyle thing shows that he doesn't want to give it to her. Either that, or the fact that he chose Doyle for VP Chief of Staff before announcing Hillary as VP is a sign that if she is on the ticket, it won't mean she'll have much influence at all.

    exactly (5.00 / 9) (#12)
    by kempis on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 06:03:02 AM EST
    Moreover, I think the whole Solis Doyle thing shows that he doesn't want to give it to her. Either that, or the fact that he chose Doyle for VP Chief of Staff before announcing Hillary as VP is a sign that if she is on the ticket, it won't mean she'll have much influence at all.

    It's a gratuitous slap at Hillary no matter how you parse it--unless she and Solis Doyle really have made up now and are bestest friends again. If that hasn't happened, then this is very meanspirited and Bush-like, the marking of territory.

    I know that there are good electability arguments for wanting Hillary on the ticket, but I remain unsold. Part of is my own protectiveness. I'm tired of seeing her in the stocks so Obamites can throw rotten fruit at her and blame her for anything that goes wrong. Hillary as VP isn't going to end CDS among Obama-supporters. Hence, Hillary as VP is not going to produce a united ticket but a dysfunctional one. Or that's my fear, anyway.

    Parent

    It's my fear too. (5.00 / 9) (#14)
    by Esme on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 06:16:04 AM EST
    I'm tired of seeing her in the stocks so Obamites can throw rotten fruit at her and blame her for anything that goes wrong. Hillary as VP isn't going to end CDS among Obama-supporters.

    Hillary should just stay far away. I'm sick of her being demonized, villified and abused.

    And the Doyle this is mean-spirited, no matter how you look at it. How he gets away with these things, I'll never know.

    Parent

    imagine if the roles were reversed (5.00 / 7) (#21)
    by kempis on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 07:01:10 AM EST
    Let's say Obama had fired Axlerod or Plouffe (sp). Hillary wins. There is much talk about a unity ticket. Hillary hires the guy Obama fired to the be the VP's chief-of-staff....

    Last night, the talking heads on CNN seemed to concede gently that the Obama campaign (usually so good, according to Gergen) made a "mistake" with this move.

    It's a "mistake," of course, because it does appear to be incredibly mean-spirited. But they aren't about to say that, not of Obama. It doesn't fit the narrative.

    If the role was reversed and Hillary's campaign had made such a move, there would be much outrage over her mean-spiritedness--just one more example of how she's got to out-alpha her opponents, even those on the same team.

    Meanwhile, out-alpha-ing is exactly what Obama is doing in many ways, some, like this, totally unnecessary except for the sheer fun of rubbing a vanquished opponent's face in it.

    I really don't like this guy. I may vote for him, but I don't like pettiness, and this reeks of pettiness.

    Parent

    Maybe he really is just mean spirited (5.00 / 5) (#24)
    by BarnBabe on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 07:45:05 AM EST
    If you look at his tactics with two women now, you see a 'take no prisoners' attitude. His new Democratic power reminds me of George saying he had political capital now and was going to spend it. George went broke the next day.

    Parent
    the Doyle announcement and the reaction to it (5.00 / 2) (#26)
    by TimNCGuy on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 07:53:43 AM EST
    actually FORCED the Obama camp to issue a statement yesterday denying that they were trying to "send any message" with Doyle.

    I think Gergen got it right, it was just STUPID

    Parent

    I'm sorry, but (5.00 / 6) (#94)
    by gyrfalcon on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:06:20 AM EST
    I cannot believe the Obama camp didn't anticipate the way the Doyle appointment would be interpreted.  It simply defies credibility for them to claim this was an innocent mistake.

    If they did not intend to send the message everyone received, they would have knocked themselves out to prepare the ground, at the very least by making sure the Clinton camp was advised in advance and told the reasons for it (whatever on God's green earth those could be).

    Better yet, they would not have made the hire at all, or at the very least would have given her a different role, something like "adviser to the campaign manager" or something.

    That they did nothing of the kind is clear and unequivocal evidence they fully intended to deliver what they knew would be interpreted as a humiliating slap.

    Parent

    trivial revenge buy a trivial... (none / 0) (#177)
    by Salo on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:12:59 AM EST
    ....heh.

    Parent
    It's a no brainer... (5.00 / 1) (#38)
    by NO2WONDERBOY on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:17:28 AM EST
    "And the Doyle this is mean-spirited, no matter how you look at it. How he gets away with these things, I'll never know."

    He has been rewarded for doing so every time. How he gets away with these things? The color of MONEY, that's how?


    Parent

    i too am sick and tired of seeing (5.00 / 3) (#77)
    by hellothere on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:51:29 AM EST
    hillary bashed all the time. it is stupid, arrogant, mean, and is the sign of a truly sick mind.

    Parent
    thats ironic (1.00 / 7) (#31)
    by tben on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:07:37 AM EST
    Of course it is not Doyle's fault that Clinton lost. It was Clinton's decision about message and which states to contest that caused her to lose.

    Interesting that so many here want the real political incompetent, Hillary herself, to be put on the ticket. Now that would be "shades of Brownie". Heckuva job with those insignificant caucus states, Hill!

    Parent

    I guess this means there's (5.00 / 9) (#39)
    by tree on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:17:40 AM EST
    a least one Obama supporter who won't blame Clinton when Obama loses in November, right? It all the responsibility rests with the candidate, then no one but Obama can take the credit or blame for what happens in the general. You will remember this, right?

    Parent
    You guessed wrong tree (5.00 / 6) (#46)
    by Dr Molly on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:28:38 AM EST
    The CDS will never stop.

    Parent
    I can tell you right now (5.00 / 2) (#55)
    by flyerhawk on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:36:29 AM EST
    that I won't blame Clinton in the unlikely event that Obama loses in November.  

    Obama is responsible for his campaign and the successes and failures of it.

    If only some of the Hillary supporters here held her to the same standard.  Instead it's a non-stop stream of excuses and blaming others for the failures of the Clinton campaign.

    Parent

    Well, i'm with you flyerhawk (5.00 / 7) (#61)
    by Dr Molly on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:42:09 AM EST
    Clinton (barely) lost on the merits and Obama (barely) won on the merits. Same thing will apply to the general with Obama. But would you agree that the histrionic label 'political incompetent', when applied to either candidate, is silly given the historic closeness of the primary and the successes and failures of both candidates?

    Parent
    Sure (none / 0) (#74)
    by flyerhawk on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:50:18 AM EST
    Seems a bit silly.  

    You can perhaps say that Hillary was arrogant or naive, depending on your perspective, and planned poorly or a insurgent to over take her.

    But she raised the 2nd largest amount of money EVER and received 18 million votes.  Not exactly incompetent, IMO.

    Parent

    Yes, I would say she was blindsided (5.00 / 3) (#81)
    by Dr Molly on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:55:52 AM EST
    By the Obama phenom. I'm not sure anyone could have anticipated his overwhelming appeal and media worship. So, perhaps just 'unprepared'. I never understood the 'she thought she was inevitable' charge. I think she just entered the race with a certain landscape in front of her, and then that landscape changed drastically. Sh!t happens.

    Parent
    Well (none / 0) (#93)
    by flyerhawk on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:05:21 AM EST
    I would say that she certainly expected to win the nomination and she expected to win by Super Tuesday.  

    I don't understand why you guys wish to disparage Obama's achievements by using terms like worship, particularly when it comes to the media.  

    Parent

    No disparagement intended (none / 0) (#100)
    by Dr Molly on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:10:31 AM EST
    I do think it is fair to say that he had a much better media environment working for him than Clinton did.

    That doesn't mean he didn't achieve greatly.

    Parent

    Fair enough (none / 0) (#118)
    by flyerhawk on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:22:09 AM EST
    I would agree that the media was easier on him.  That probably is due as much to him being a fresh face going against a Clinton, than anything else.

    Parent
    Right! In addition to asking (none / 0) (#141)
    by jpete on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:41:01 AM EST
    whether the media attacks on Clinton hurt her, we should be asking whether the media worship helped Obama.  Well, duh!

    Parent
    She wasn't Machiavelian enough. (none / 0) (#201)
    by Salo on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:28:03 AM EST
    She could have instructed her captains to boost Edwards vote in Iowa so that it gazumped Obama's 36%.  She had the means to do that.   Then she'd have sailed to victory in NH and SC.

    Parent
    I'll remember this when the (5.00 / 2) (#71)
    by tree on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:48:17 AM EST
    527s start gearing up and Obama loses his media darling status and Wright and Ayers and Obama's Chicago connections are played to the hilt. If you are not blaming the Obama campaign for all those things and are instead blaming the media or McCain, I will remind you of this post.  

    Parent
    You certainly can (none / 0) (#90)
    by flyerhawk on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:01:55 AM EST
    Obama is aware these things and if he can't temper them and deflate their impact, it's his campaign's fault.

    You KNOW it's going to happen.  The Obama campaign knows it's going to happen.  

    However I question their real impact.  The Swiftboats were effective because they completely undercut one of Kerry's big campaign claims, his heroic military career.  Not only that but they were unassailable because the events happened 35 years ago.  

    The Wright thing may be a problem for him, it may not be.  He already went through this particular buzzsaw. Ayers is utterly irrelevant. The people that care about that are the people already against Obama.

    We all know the rules of the game.  The rules are..... there are no rules.  They attack, we parry.  We attack, they parry.  It's how it works.

    Blaming the media is no different than blaming the refs in sports.

    Parent

    But in Obama's case (5.00 / 1) (#110)
    by tree on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:16:41 AM EST
    the Wright issue undercuts one of his major campaign  claims, which is his judgment. Wright actually pretty much decimates the "judgment" claim.

     I don't think the issue has played out fully yet either. In 1988 Gore brought up the issue of weekend furlough of prisoners sgainst Gov. Dukakis. It didn't have much effect during the primary but in the general  the GOP morphed it into Willy Horton ads. Something similar could happen this year. Clinton pretty much stayed away from the Wright issue, because she had to. McCain and the 527s won't.  

    Parent

    Why would you blame her (5.00 / 1) (#142)
    by samtaylor2 on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:41:13 AM EST
    Unless she doesn't help out?  But I just don't see this happening.  These 2 people's fates are too intertwined to do anything to hurt the other (at least in public).  I guess their egos could overcome common sense (I mean anyone who believes they have what it takes to be president has a large ego- its actually a good thing).

    They need the other both too get elected (NY has a very large AA population) and Obama needs Hillaries large women's network behind him.  

    I just think reading stuff into her not being on the trail right now, this stupid hiring thing, are just nonsense.  She isn't on the trail right now for 2 reasons: 1)well deserved rest, and 2) he needs to establish himself outside of the Clinton Obama thing.  When this is done, she will then help him.

    Parent

    thats a deal, tree (1.00 / 7) (#40)
    by tben on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:22:55 AM EST
    So long as Hillary follows through on her promise to do her part to bring the party back together, and to drown out with praise some of her nasty rhetoric against Obama in the primaries, then sure, I will put almost all the responsibility for the outcome on Obama's shoulders.

    Parent
    Ha! (5.00 / 16) (#45)
    by tree on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:28:30 AM EST
    You can't do it can you? Even in a short post you have to blame Hillary and get in your shot at her. Not surprising. Why is it that some of those who cry for party unity the loudest can't seem to show any of it themselves? Try being unifying if you want party unity. Don''t expect others to be what you can't or don't want to be.

    Parent
    You Are Leaving A Lot A Wiggle Room (5.00 / 5) (#47)
    by MO Blue on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:28:48 AM EST
    with all of those qualifiers. Especially with this

    I will put almost all the responsibility for the outcome on Obama's shoulders.


    Parent
    that wiggle room (none / 0) (#85)
    by tben on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:59:35 AM EST
    is simply saving some credit to give to Hillary, of course...
    :)

    Parent
    Since We Were Strictly Discussing Obama (5.00 / 2) (#127)
    by MO Blue on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:30:16 AM EST
    LOSING in November, the credit you are saving to give to Hillary is all negative credit, of course.

    Parent
    LOL. So so long as she wins the election (5.00 / 7) (#62)
    by rooge04 on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:43:19 AM EST
    for him she won't be blamed. LOL

    I hope she stays as far away from Obama as humanly possible.

    Parent

    the deal is obama wins or loses on (5.00 / 3) (#89)
    by hellothere on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:01:32 AM EST
    his own talents. it won't be calculated with if the hillary supporters do this and that. in effect you are trying to pin it on hillary again.

    Parent
    There was no rhetoric (5.00 / 1) (#180)
    by JavaCityPal on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:16:11 AM EST
    Everything she said was true. He can't create experience he doesn't have.

    Parent
    Here's One (none / 0) (#130)
    by daring grace on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:31:24 AM EST
    Obama supporter who will not blame Clinton if Obama loses in November.

    If he loses in November, it's because of him, and him alone. there may be unfair coverage in the media, the Repubs, and sleazy independent elements may spew all kinds of vile effluvia at him. Heck, there may be another massive terror attack or some other external variable that galvanizes support for McCain. In any case, it's Obama's job as a candidate to handle it and win.

    Candidates who aspire to the presidency have to take responsibility for how their campaigns are run and how successful they are just as they will ultimately have do the same with their administrations.

    As to Clinton, I strongly suspect that if she'd made different strategy decisions early on regarding Iowa, Super Tuesday and the caucus states, she might very well be the nominee now.

    Parent

    political incompetent? (5.00 / 13) (#44)
    by Dr Molly on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:27:22 AM EST
    She won all the big states, the swing states, and 18 million votes. She failed in the caucus states. She lost the nomination by a hair. I don't get how that earns her the slur 'political incompetent'.

    Parent
    He spent 3X the money (5.00 / 4) (#181)
    by JavaCityPal on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:17:40 AM EST
    in some states and lost by double digits. All while being declared the presumptive nominee. Hmmm, who's politically incompetent.

    He took this on a wing and a prayer.

    Parent

    well geez Doc (1.00 / 6) (#51)
    by tben on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:33:03 AM EST
    I'll tell you what. If you would accept the political brilliance of the guy that did even better than what you just listed - the guy who actually won, then I would be glad to tone down the characterization of Hillary.

    Obama gets slurred around here all the time, but geez, the minute someone is even slightly tough on Hillary its some great crime?

    Y'all should be the ones most furious at Hillary's incompetence. Assuming she would win by SuperTuesday, and thus not investing ANYTHING in organizing the caucus states - sorry, that is incompetence at a Bush-in-Iraq level. No planning whatsoever for Day2.

    On top of the earlier decision to cast this election as one where Washington DC experience would be the main selling point. Real good antenna there!

    Look, y'all seem to love her, and want her president. She probably could have been had it not been for these mistakes. But all everyone 'round here seems to want to do is deflect their disappointment into anger against Obama.

    Parent

    you didn't answer the question (5.00 / 10) (#56)
    by Dr Molly on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:37:23 AM EST
    How does someone who pretty much tied for the nomination earn the slur 'political incompetent'? Stop deflecting. By your logic, you could slur Obama with the same term since he screwed up in his own way - by losing the big states and swing states. Neither of them did a perfect job, both made mistakes, and he edged her out. Good on him. You simply use any potential opportunity to insult her, which is your right to do so but your slur is transparently inaccurate.

    Parent
    sorry, I thought I made that clear (none / 0) (#68)
    by tben on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:46:41 AM EST
    Hillary should have won the nomination easily, given her advantages in terms of money (at the beginning), connections, buzz - every possible measure. That is why everyone considered her inevitable, and why she decided to further nurture that notion so that fundraisers and operatives would all flock to her.

    But she blew it. Thats why the incompetence charge has some validity. Yes, she basically tied Obama in popular vote, and came within a few hundred pledged delegates, but she had been dealt a hand that should have won -easily.

    Your logic would only work if they had started out on an equal footing. That was obviously not the case.

    Parent

    Ah, the old 'inevitability' meme (5.00 / 7) (#79)
    by Dr Molly on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:52:44 AM EST
    makes her a political incompetent. Got it.

    I never thought she was inevitable - far from it. I thought from the very beginning that she would have a very difficult time considering the decades of Hillary hate, ignorance about her, and media jihad that she had to deal with.

    She made strategic mistakes, to be sure, as did Obama. I cannot imagine calling either one a political incompetent after the way things turned out.

    Parent

    You're not alone (5.00 / 4) (#134)
    by huzzlewhat on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:36:01 AM EST
    Bill Clinton agreed with you about the inevitability thing, or lack thereof. I remember very clearly him saying that the primary was going to be the toughest race for Hillary, and that if she got past it, the GE would be much, much easier for her to win.

    Pretty perceptive about political horseraces, our Bill.

    Parent

    When your opponent smears you as race baiting (5.00 / 6) (#116)
    by Edgar08 on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:19:43 AM EST
    And the media pushes that smear too, then you don't really have much chance at all.

    Parent
    Stop blaming this on race baiting (1.00 / 1) (#154)
    by samtaylor2 on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:48:15 AM EST
    It is just sorta insulting.  In insinuates that many black people including myself are stupid and we taken.  We heard the same things you did, but came to a different opinion.  That is not race baiting.  I define race baiting as you anti latono sentiment to fuel an election, this is not race baiting.  

    Parent
    the part you are not understanding (5.00 / 7) (#67)
    by TimNCGuy on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:46:39 AM EST
    is that Hillary supporters don't NEED Obama.  It's the other way around.  So, you should be acting nice to us whether we act nice to you or not...  See how that works?  We have nothing left to lose.  You on the other hand....

    Parent
    I am understand that very well Tim (none / 0) (#72)
    by tben on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:49:39 AM EST
    I can see perfectly well that that is the reigning attitude around here. We can trash, insult, ridicule, mock Obama and his supporters all teh live long day, and their job is to come kiss our behinds.

    Sorry, I aint that kinda person. If you beleive in liberal and progressive principles, I have confidence that all of you will be able to assess and vote your self interest come november. Thats the way it is supposed to be anyway.

    Parent

    If Hilary lost (5.00 / 3) (#88)
    by mmc9431 on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:01:18 AM EST
    by incompetence, doesn't that reflect that Obama won by default rather than merit. I too want a progressive agenda and I think more Obama converts could be made by emphasizing his progressive vision.

    He also could make great inroads with the base if he used his voice now to stop the Dem's from giving into Bush on the telecom immunity. That would score him more points with the base than anything else he could do at this time. I'd really like to see all the progressive blogs assert their influence to push this.

    Parent

    well then I would anticipate (5.00 / 4) (#121)
    by TimNCGuy on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:25:48 AM EST
    that you would do the same and if Clinton is the VP choice, you will be voting for Obama/Clinton, right?

    Because I really don't understand the Obama supporters who say they don't want Clinton on the ticket and wouldn't vote for that ticket.

    It makes no sense.  Those same Obama supporters continue to threaten Clinton supporters with the Supreme Court nominees of McCain and the inevitable destruction of the world as we know it if we don't vote for Obama.  But, they don't take their own advice if Clinton is the VP pick.

    The only way I will vote for Obama is if Clinton is on the ticket.  But, don't worry about it.  I live in NC and there is no way Obama will win here anyway.  Even with his 48 state strategy.

    Without Clinton on the ticket, I will not reward the DNC and party bosses like Pelosi for their behavior.

    Parent

    Well, then Obama ain't it. (5.00 / 9) (#139)
    by Mike H on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:40:05 AM EST
    See, if you put it that way, Obama isn't a progressive, so there's no reason to vote for him.  His campaign has NEVER been very progressive, and has been getting less so. His verbiage is vague about progressive causes, and he's been BACKING AWAY from progressive stances as the campaign has gone on.

    Anyone who thinks that Obama will be a strong advocate for progressive causes has not been paying attention.

    His election will quite likely simply cement the Democratic party's move away from the left and solidly in the center.  Leaving progressives with nothing to show for their continued support.

    Parent

    The Democratic Party (5.00 / 2) (#185)
    by JavaCityPal on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:19:24 AM EST
    has shown they lost all principles. What's there to vote for?

    Parent
    Do you need some pandering? (none / 0) (#171)
    by CoralGables on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:08:37 AM EST
    So what you are saying is...you would like some political pandering from Obama? Or would you consider this outreach?

    Clinton supporters don't walk in lockstep. Clinton supporters will evaluate the two candidates remaining and make a decision just like those that voted for Edwards, Kucinich, Dodd, Romney, Huckabee et al.

    I took about 48 hours to decide between the two
    remaining candidates. Some will take longer and some took less. Pandering I didn't need. Just sit back and study their stances on the issues and come to an informed decision.


    Parent

    for the record (5.00 / 15) (#49)
    by kempis on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:30:26 AM EST
    Interesting that so many here want the real political incompetent, Hillary herself, to be put on the ticket.

    I'm not one of them, so your insult missed its mark as far as I'm concerned. I don't think that a lot of Obama-supporters will shut up about how evil Hillary is, not even if she's on the ticket, so I'd prefer she remain off of it and support Obama from the sidelines. :)

    And it's not because Hillary is a political incompetent. Far from it.

    Ever ask yourself why your guy trailed by half a million votes after March 1? Even after Alter and Leahy and others were publicly calling for Hillary to quit because of "the math"? Even after Obama outspent her at least 2-1 in the remaining primaries? For some weird reason, the candidate with less money and less media support beat the guy who had been the annointee since late February.

    Just something to think about next time you feel like mocking Hillary's "competence."

    And caucuses? Yep. Her campaign blew it regarding caucuses. But I'm curious to see how well Obama does in November when he has to win electoral votes in general elections--no caucuses.

    Parent

    This blows me away (5.00 / 21) (#58)
    by Emma on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:39:01 AM EST
    For some weird reason, the candidate with less money and less media support beat the guy who had been the annointee since late February.

    THIS right here is what blows me away.  All Dems have been doing for, oh, 40 years or so is b*tch and moan about how the media f*cks us and how hostile it is to Dems.  Look at what happened to Gore.  Look at what happened to Kerry.  Go back to Dukakis and Carter and Ferraro, even.  So what did Clinton do?  She went totally and completely around the media and won the voters.

    Up against the worst media storm of sexism and CDS and bias and flat out hatred anybody has ever seen, Clinton took on the media and WON.  She won OH, TX, IN, SD, WV, and KY after weeks and weeks and weeks of media trumpeting about what a heartless b*tch she is, what a racist she is, how she can never, ever possibly catch Obama in the pledged delegates, it's over, it's over, it's over.  

    Clinton did what Dems have been wanting a candidate to do for decades:  she went around the media and WON despite them by reaching voters directly.  In any other candidate this would THE SINGLE most important reason to nominate her.  It would be a freaking miracle.  Dems would be falling all over themselves to get on that bandwagon.  For Hillary?  Meh.  Not so much.

    Parent

    Why this deflection? (none / 0) (#57)
    by tben on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:37:55 AM EST
    "Her campaign" blew it in the caucus states?

    That was Hillary's decision. Try to win in this state or that - that is a very top-level decision, made by the candidate and her closest advisor. Both named Clinton in this case.

    If she is the leader of your political movement, then these decisions failed you. Don't blame me for pointing out the obvous, or Obama because he was a beneficiary of them.

    Parent

    Who was the last guy (5.00 / 5) (#101)
    by gyrfalcon on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:12:13 AM EST
    to run a brilliant campaign and barely edge out the competition, some even say lost the popular vote, depending on how you count it?

    That's worked out well, hasn't it.

    Can we please lose the idea that having a great campaign has anything to do with worthiness as a presidential prospect?

    Parent

    It does to some extent (5.00 / 0) (#167)
    by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:04:35 AM EST

    If you can't manage a campaign well, it reflects poorly on your ability to manage the federal government.  For senators running, how they manage the campaign is about the only managerial experience upon which to judge them.

    Parent
    I believe the person you are referring to (none / 0) (#111)
    by flyerhawk on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:16:46 AM EST
    also had fewer delegates going into the Convention.

    Parent
    On the Other Hand (none / 0) (#143)
    by daring grace on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:41:30 AM EST
    Does running a less-than-great campaign signify 'worthiness' as a presidential prospect?

    I've got problems with using the word 'worthiness' here, because there are many people I think might be 'worthy' presidents based on their values and ideas, but their lack of executive ability or clumsiness at negotiating the Washington snake pit or just their personalities would doom them as effective ones.

    By the way, I think Hillary Clinton probably has the executive qualities to make a "worthy" president. Unfortunately, some of her campaign's wrong turns prevented us from finding out this time around.

    Parent

    If I'm deflecting by acknowledging a campaign (5.00 / 1) (#156)
    by kempis on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:52:47 AM EST
    strategy error, then what are you doing by ignoring every single point any Hillary-supporter makes about her outperforming Obama from March 1 on?

    Well, ok. I guess that's not technically a "deflection," more a denial to acknowledge.

     

    Parent

    Clinton's message & strategy are/were (5.00 / 14) (#50)
    by wurman on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:32:38 AM EST
    totally unknown to you or any other person not in the room when those decisions were made.

    Solis-Doyle screwed up--widely acknowledged & clearly stated.

    Some folks in comments here, & a few Clinton campaign insiders, in gossipy off-the-cuff remarks, have wondered & hinted that Solis-Doyle may have been a "mole," the Manchurian campaign mangager. [I doubt that, but it shows how badly things were mis-managed & how ticked off some Clinton campaign staff became.]

    I was a Clinton delegate [dropped out because I don't want to be in Denver with people who support Sen. Obama], privy to some very low level information.  You seem to think, & often present here, concepts that were not even known by people "in the know."  Your statement about the "insignificant caucus states" is typical of your know-nothing comments. There may well have been a plan or strategy to compete in some of them, however Solis-Doyle spent all the money before the Clinton campaign got to that part of the overall strategy.  Again, this is widely known, covered in the press, oft-stated by the Clinton functionaries.

    Your conclusive statement about the Clinton decision-making processes are hilarious.  You weren't there, you don't know, & those issues have not been publicized.  A wondrous fantasy of yours, indeed.

    Parent

    The Buck Stops Where? (5.00 / 1) (#148)
    by daring grace on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:44:20 AM EST
    Why shouldn't we hold candidates responsible for the behavior of their campaigns just as we hold presidents responsible for that of their administrations?

    Parent
    Absolutely ... (5.00 / 11) (#172)
    by Inky on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:08:57 AM EST
    That's why I'll never be able to vote for Obama in the GE. I hold him directly responsible for sending out Keith Olbermann's "RFK assassination" Special Comment to every member the press. I hold him personally responsible for circulating the memo on race-baiting accusations to use against the Clintons on AA radio stations. And I hold him personally responsible not only for his own sexist/misogynistic statements against Clinton, but also for those of his surrogates.

    I agree with you completely.

    Parent

    Nice to Have Agreement Across the Battle Lines (2.00 / 1) (#188)
    by daring grace on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:20:28 AM EST
    And, you know, I understand why you're holding him responsible for the things you blame his campaign and supporters for, because I feel the same way about Clinton's campaign excesses. I lost a lot of repsect for her and Bill during the primaries.

    But the difference we do have is that if she was the nominee today, I'd be voting for her in November.

    Parent

    False equivalence. (5.00 / 2) (#199)
    by MarkL on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:25:38 AM EST
    And unfalsifiable assertion about your support for Hillary. What's the point?

    Parent
    sorry wurman, (1.00 / 3) (#60)
    by tben on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:41:27 AM EST
    But no fantasy involved. You can see what kind of organization that she had in those states. Its not a mystery.

    Maybe you want to run with the argument that Hillary made all the right moves to organize those states but Patty stole all teh money - thats an alternative hypothesis, I'll grant you that...

    But it is interesting the volume of firm, and utterly nasty declarative statements made around here about all manner of details of how Obama is running his campaign. Do you mock people making such statements too?

    Parent

    Yes. (5.00 / 9) (#87)
    by wurman on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:01:05 AM EST
    Some "insider" campaign stuff becomes public, sometimes, usually in less-than-reliable ways.

    So people speculate.  Speculations about the Clinton strategy have no basis in "stuff" that's out there.  The insider info. hasn't really leaked out & the "disorganization" you cite is not a function of strategy; it's the result of flawed tactics & lousy implementation, poor quality state committee management & coordination, & lack of money to staff caucus state functionaries.

    I've never commented on your fantasies previously because it wasn't perfectly clear to me that you were just making the crap up with no basis in facts--this time it's very obvious that you have utterly no knowledge of the actual situation.

    Some reasonable speculations about Sen. Obama's strategy are availabe because Axelrod talks about them in the media.

    I've never commented on the Obama campaign because it's of no importance to me, whatsoever.

    Parent

    Please just go read the interview (5.00 / 3) (#131)
    by gish720 on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:32:14 AM EST
    Mark Penn did for GQ, it explains so much. There definitely was mismanagement of funds and Penn discusses that as well as the fact that the press jumped all over Clinton after she made the driver's license remark in the October debate coupled with the fact that when Obama made the almost identical statement a couple of weeks later in the CNN debate the press said NOTHING. That interview in GQ is very interesting.

    Parent
    That's a pet peeve of mine (none / 0) (#173)
    by SoCalLiberal on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:09:34 AM EST
    This pretend story that there was this big February 5th plan.  Most of the states that voted or caucuses on February 5th had no staff in them.  The ones that did, Hillary mostly won but those staffs were put into the states last minute and completely underfunded. As a result, she didn't get the big delegate leads needed out of the big states she won and lost several she should have carried.  

    How Patti Solis Doyle and Mark Penn wasted that much money is beyond me.  Most questioned the Iowa Strategy at the time it was carried out.  After Iowa, most of the campaign's money had been spent.  Luckily, she won New Hampshire.  If she had lost, it would have probably meant the end to her campaign.

    Parent

    so closing down the office and (5.00 / 1) (#82)
    by hellothere on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:56:46 AM EST
    watching videos all day while bankrupting the clinton campaign is not this lady's fault? let me go get my bridges in brooklyn for you. heck of a deal!

    Parent
    Please check your facts... (5.00 / 6) (#140)
    by zfran on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:41:00 AM EST
    He is so "competent" by your definition that he had to get some of "her" delegates to increase his chances and buy out support from the sd's...He couldn't win the big states..he has done nothing to unify the 18million who voted for "her"..I could go on, but please try and refrain from the name-calling.


    Parent
    This is ridiculous (1.00 / 1) (#69)
    by flyerhawk on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:48:02 AM EST
    Obama does not operate by the whim of Hillary.  

    Hillary knew about this for weeks.  She publicly supported the decision.

    This isn't a slap in the face of Hillary Clinton and it isn't mean-spirited.  He isn't dating Hillary.  He, and Hillary, are professional politicians.  

    The only people this is a slap in the face to are over-sensitive Clinton supporters

    Parent

    I often wonder (5.00 / 1) (#76)
    by Lil on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:50:35 AM EST
    what your comments would be like if the shoe was on the other foot.

    Parent
    I doubt I would act any differently (none / 0) (#106)
    by flyerhawk on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:15:18 AM EST
    I am not emotionally tied to Obama.  I support him and I think he will do good things for this country.  But had he lost I would have quickly moved on, most notably because a McCain Presidency scares the jeebus out of me.

    Parent
    Link (none / 0) (#122)
    by Edgar08 on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:25:48 AM EST
    link

    I'll continue to post this for those who might let themselves forget what the Obama movement is all about.

    Any credibility one has to advise what one should do now must surely be leveraged on their ability to show how they advised the other side when it took more courage to do so.


    Parent

    I have no idea (none / 0) (#136)
    by flyerhawk on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:38:37 AM EST
    why you think that this means anything to me.

    I can count on one hand the number of times I've posted on Kos.  

    I will freely admit that I was against a Hillary nomination last year.  But by the time the primaries  actually started I realized how short sighted I was being.  

    Personal likes are outweighed by the specter of allowing McCain to start another war in Iran.

    Parent

    it has really nothing to do (none / 0) (#151)
    by Edgar08 on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:46:47 AM EST
    with you specifically.  Its more of a reminder to the other Clinton folks out here.

    Parent
    Well, with this poll showing (none / 0) (#150)
    by Pegasus on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:46:42 AM EST
    that a quarter of Clinton's primary voters are saying won't vote for Obama in the general, I could pretty easily posit the reverse -- Clinton's support was all about being anti-Obama.  It would be a ridiculous position, but so is yours.

    Some people were supporting each candidate out of aversion to the other, but most people liked both candidates and just preferred one.  Sheesh.

    Parent

    thats crap (5.00 / 6) (#155)
    by Edgar08 on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:51:15 AM EST
    anyone who's been around this thing for longer than two years knows full well the antipathy towards Clinton existed before obama became viable.

    In contrast I know of no Clinton supporters who disliked obama before he embraced that antipathy.

    Theres no equivalence here.

    Parent

    THAT'S crap. (none / 0) (#169)
    by Pegasus on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:08:24 AM EST
    I spent enough time at dKos before it became Obama Central to tell you that there was plenty of hostility to Obama from the left.  He was called a Lieberdem, untested, etc.  Not as nasty as the anti-Clinton stuff, but it existed.

    And what I'm objecting to above is that you're saying that the entire Obama candidacy is based around aversion to Clinton.  That's simply untrue.  Some of it is -- I'll never deny that Obama wouldn't be here if a big slice of Dems didn't dislike the Clinton brand (but who's fault is that, exactly?).  But many, many Democrats, myself included, liked and like both candidates, and simply liked Obama a little bit more.

    Parent

    Well youre not really (5.00 / 3) (#200)
    by Edgar08 on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:26:58 AM EST
    Refuting my point except to say it doesnt apply to you specifically.

    But i remain sceptical and the possibility that those (not you) who have been cultivating Clinton hatred for years will now show up and say "I liked both candidates just one more than the other"

    I stand by my observation.  Hating Clinton has been around a long time.  Nobody I know started hating obama until he started embracing that constituency.  You'll note that people such as myself defended obama from the attacks you describe above long ago.

    But of those people who attacked obama as you just described, you should ask yourself, at what point did those attacks stop?  Do they really like obama as much as you do?

    Parent

    And BTW... (none / 0) (#175)
    by Pegasus on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:11:00 AM EST
    I simply love your implication that I've only been "around this thing" for two years.  Yeah, no way I followed politics before this cycle.  I'm a babe in the freaking woods here.  LOL.

    Parent
    Amen (none / 0) (#157)
    by daring grace on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:52:55 AM EST
    I've felt anger and outrage at many things leveled at Obama. But I've also felt similar feelings at things leveled at Clinton. I don't like the sewer tactics that occur in politics.

    In the end, I don't feel that personal a bond with Obama that many Clinton supporters seem to feel about her. In the end, while I believe that Obama's ideas are better for the country, if Senator Clinton had won, I'd be supporting her. And if she hired the equivalent of a Solis Doyle from the Obama camp, I would not really care, beyond hoping the hire was not as incompetent as she has been portrayed.


    Parent

    You are not entitled to your own reality (5.00 / 1) (#108)
    by gyrfalcon on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:16:08 AM EST
    Clearly, obviously, this took the Clinton camp by surprise.  The issue is not that Doyle joined up wiht the Obama campaign (although if you ask me, rushing over there before the primaries were even over was pretty tacky), the issue is the specific role the Obama people have designated for her.

    Parent
    Hillary has known about this for weeks? (5.00 / 1) (#160)
    by kempis on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:55:29 AM EST
    Really? I didn't know that. Link?

    Parent
    flyerhawk is distorting news reports (5.00 / 3) (#202)
    by Valhalla on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:28:38 AM EST
    A couple of weeks before the primaries ended, there were news reports circulating that PSD was talking to the Obama campaign about joining them.

    I thought it was a bit tacky before the end of the primaries, but then, there's a reason why I'm not in politics.

    Most articles also mentioned that it's quite common for staffs to go over to the opponent after the primaries -- most of these folks are campaign professionals, and they go where the jobs are.

    What there is no evidence of is that the Obama campaign would make PSD the COS to an as-yet nonexistent VP candidate.  It's that fact that has many commentators across the board talking about what a slap in the face it is.

    Not to mention, even had Clinton known about PSD's new title for months, that doesn't make it any less a slap in the face.  It would just mean that Clinton knew about the slap before we all did.

    Parent

    Here's possible charitable interpretation: (none / 0) (#204)
    by oculus on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:31:54 AM EST
    Obama intends to select Clinton as his VP.  He knows Solis Doyle was Hillary Clinton's COS as First Lady.  Just trying to make sure Clinton has a COS she respects and is comfortable with.

    Parent
    Hillary's high profile supporters (none / 0) (#99)
    by MO Blue on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:10:28 AM EST
    and many in the press thought and said that it was a slap in the face. Perception is everything and a large number of people outside the blogs read and heard this take on the appointment.

    Obama, of course, does not have to do anything other than what he wants to do. It is his ball game but choices have consequences. This decision IMO was not good for party unity which he needs in November.

    Also could you please provide with a link to information supporting your statement that Hillary knew that Doyle would become Chief of Staff to Obama's yet unnamed VP choice. Not that she would join Obama's campaign but that she would be given that position. It is the actual position that she was given that is perceived as the problem and not that she joined the campaign.

    Parent

    Let me ask you a question (none / 0) (#115)
    by flyerhawk on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:19:07 AM EST
    If Hillary wasn't in the running for VP, would this still be a slap in the face?

    Parent
    The fact is that Clinton as VP is what (5.00 / 1) (#205)
    by MO Blue on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:37:04 AM EST
    many Democrats, especially her supporters, seem to want. I'm not in favor of Hillary becoming Obama's VP but I think mine might be a minority opinion. Can't IMO chance the facts on the ground to support this decision. If Obama choses someone other than Clinton (he will IMO), the HOW he does is very important for party unity.

    I don't even think that it really matters what Obama's intentions were in making this move. As I said perception is everything in politics.  Obama could have added Doyle to his staff with any other title and it would have been no big deal. Barely a footnote in the news and among Hillary's supporters. From my POV, avoiding situations such as this is very important if unity is to be achieved.

    BTW, you still didn't provide the information to back up your claim that Hillary knew that Doyle would be appointed as COS to the VP.

    Parent

    I don't think Solis Doyle pick necessarily was (5.00 / 1) (#43)
    by popsnorkle on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:27:01 AM EST
    a slap in the face to Hillary.  After all, wasn't she Hillary's chief of staff before she was campaign manager?  She must have worked out well as chief of staff, or else she wouldn't have been given the campaign job.  So maybe even though she was fired from one job, Hillary might still respect her and think she'd be good for the old one.

    Parent
    hmm, even dick morris thinks it (none / 0) (#78)
    by hellothere on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:52:09 AM EST
    was a slap at hillay and a very bad idea.

    Parent
    However, in order (5.00 / 4) (#109)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:16:11 AM EST
    for Obama supporters to see this as the mean-spirited, petty, unprofessional slap in the face that it was, they'd have to the hero a few inches off of the pedestal.  

    Won't happen.

    Parent

    Normally, I'd agree (none / 0) (#119)
    by goldberry on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:22:29 AM EST
    but the commentary from the Hillary camp suggests that Solis Doyle and Clinton did not part amicably.  

    Parent
    Yep, it would just aggravate a bad situation (none / 0) (#114)
    by goldberry on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:18:46 AM EST
    Those of us "shrieking band of paranoid holdout" Clintonistas would not be able to look at that pair for four years in the WH.  It would be a daily slap in the face.  She is the more presidential of the two.  Anything less would be a reminder of woman's traditional place in the world.  

    Parent
    And it's comments like this (5.00 / 1) (#117)
    by flyerhawk on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:20:46 AM EST
    Anything less would be a reminder of woman's traditional place in the world.  

    are nothing more than gender baiting.

    Parent

    Nope, not gender baiting (5.00 / 1) (#120)
    by goldberry on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:25:20 AM EST
    just cold hard reality.  That's what would be going through my mind and the minds of countless other women.  It's a matter of dignity and progress.  When a more qualified woman plays second fiddle to a young inexperienced male it reinforces tradtitional gender stereotypes.  That's not progress and not something I ever want to see.  
    If she were forced into it and accepted, she would be a martyr and it would be unacceptable to many of us.  

    Parent
    This is not a meritocracy (none / 0) (#128)
    by flyerhawk on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:30:21 AM EST
    Even assuming that Hillary IS the more qualified candidate, an arguable claim to say the least, it has little bearing on the fact that winning elections isn't simply about having the better resumes.  If it were then Bill Richardson would have easily won and Wes Clark would have won in 2004.

    It is surreal to me that you would consider being Vice-President of the United States a martyrdom.  And the notion that she would be "forced" into taking the VP slot is pretty amusing as well.  I guess you are just determined to be upset and offended.  Your choice, I guess.

    Parent

    Well, you just summed it up (5.00 / 1) (#145)
    by goldberry on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:42:27 AM EST
    This is not a meritocracy.  
    Not exactly something to be proud of.  

    Parent
    It never has been (none / 0) (#153)
    by flyerhawk on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:47:27 AM EST
    Hillary certainly is not the most qualified candidate, not by any measure available.  Yet you prefer her.  

    Parent
    'Forced Into It' (none / 0) (#168)
    by daring grace on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:05:51 AM EST
    Putting aside the martyrdom image (which, as a woman, and a feminist make me cringe, frankly), how the heck would Hillary Clinton be forced to become VP?

    I'm an Obama supporter but I respect Senator Clinton as a talented and consummate politician who is savvy and strong enough to make up her own mind and not be "forced' into anything she doesn't want to do. I'd prefer she not be on the ticket, frankly, but if she is asked, I know she would make it work to her advantage in many, many ways. I give her credit to never assume any role that casts her as a martyr.

    Parent

    Obama's (5.00 / 12) (#4)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 05:07:16 AM EST
    lack of experience may be his undoing. There is absolutely nothing that can to be done to rectify that.

    Agreed (5.00 / 5) (#5)
    by pluege on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 05:17:17 AM EST
    VP was Obama's smart move, not preznit.  

    Parent
    yep (5.00 / 10) (#11)
    by kempis on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 05:56:54 AM EST
    Too late to do anything about that now. The Obama campaign's tactic against Hillary was to say that experience matters less than judgment and point to his "prophetic" speech on the dangers of the Iraq War.

    The counter move to that, which a fellow Democrat could not do, is to question the judgment of someone who sat in Wright's church for 20 years and claims to have had no idea about the theology.

    In fact, almost all of Obama's Chicago associations make him look either like a radical kook or your average, slimy policitian--or both--to most of the rest of the country. Those associations combined with his lack of experience in national politics are going to drive more and more Independents toward McCain. McCain may be uninspiring, but he'll be perceived as "safe" in comparison.

     

    Parent

    exactly! (5.00 / 5) (#35)
    by ccpup on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:16:37 AM EST
    that's what the majority of my friends who are Hillary supporters are saying is the reason they're voting for McCain.  He's "safe".  No need to be concerned that the man in the "driver's seat" is still working with a Learner's Permit and has yet to get the license.  They're not interested in the repercussions of someone learning on-the-job.

    I may not agree with them, but I'm beginning to suspect much of the Country -- as we head into October and then November -- will, like them, go for the "safe" choice and not the New Guy with a lot of surprising baggage who may or may not be able to deliver this Change he keeps blathering on about.

    And that's not even taking into account any October Surprise the republicans have lined up!

    Parent

    Is that what the halo is for? (none / 0) (#183)
    by SoCalLiberal on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:17:59 AM EST
    Is it to make him look like some kind of biblical prophet?  I tell you the pins with just his face on it were kinda creepy.  

    Parent
    Experience (5.00 / 3) (#52)
    by Valhalla on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:33:59 AM EST
    But he has campaign experience!

    Despite winning a grueling primary-election contest, he has gained no ground on the question of whether he has the experience needed to serve effectively as president.

    I thought this was a really bizarre sentence.  Six months of campaigning was supposed to change people's opinion of his experience?  It's experience governing people care about, not giving speeches and waving to crowds.

    Parent

    I think it (5.00 / 4) (#63)
    by Emma on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:43:35 AM EST
    may have been more "Given every opportunity in the protracted primary race to assuage doubts centered on his lack of experience, Obama didn't or couldn't do it."

    If he didn't, there's still hope for him in November.  If he couldn't, that hope diminishes greatly.

    Parent

    Ah (5.00 / 1) (#75)
    by Valhalla on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:50:23 AM EST
    that makes it a less bizarre sentence.

    But is not very encouraging for the Obama side.  If he didn't/couldn't make a case for experience with more positive exposure than any primary candidate ever, it's hard to see how that will change.

    Parent

    I agree (5.00 / 3) (#86)
    by Emma on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:59:36 AM EST
    But I don't have a lot of faith in my political prognostication skills.  I was glad when Bush was the Republican nominee in 2000.  I figured Gore would beat him, no prob!  It still makes me sick to my stomach.  

    So, I try to hang on to that humbling experience when making political predictions.  Which is to say, I try not to make them.  'Cuz I s*ck at it.

    Parent

    Bush (5.00 / 1) (#125)
    by Valhalla on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:29:18 AM EST
    I never took him seriously in 2000.  When he started to edge McCain out for the nomination I thought 'thank goodness!  We'll finally win.  We have a bona fide war hero and they have a man who practically dodged the draft.'  Among other things.

    So who knows how it will go.  If this wasn't such a positive year for the Dems, I just don't see Obama being ahead in the polls at all.

    Parent

    Its really hard to make a case for (5.00 / 3) (#91)
    by tree on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:04:03 AM EST
    something he doesn't have. I think his campaign knows that, which is why they keep deflecting the issue with his supposed "judgment" rather than trying to emphasize experience. A few of their attempts at pushing Obama's experience, like his childhood in Indonesia, were laughable and ineffective.

      However, conditions now might be so favorable for a Democrat that it doesn't matter that he has no experience. In the lesser of two evils contest, voters might just go with "the devil they don't know  " this year.
       

    Parent

    Race a factor for 23% of those polled... (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by Maria Garcia on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 06:17:22 AM EST
    ...and yet just now on ABC, George Stephanapolis and  Diane Sawyer agree that race is not a factor in this race at this point. Aren't these about the same numbers for some of the exit polls in the primary in which it was declared that white voters were racist? For example, wasn't this so in West Virginia based on a response of 22% on a similar question?

    Admittedly I haven't looked at the WAPO/ABC poll internals too closely yet to see what the individual breakdowns are by race, but still...I'm just saying that perhaps the whole "race" thing was overblown by the media in order to hang the racist tag on the Clintons?
     

    Can we have that side by side (5.00 / 6) (#18)
    by Fabian on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 06:47:13 AM EST
    with Other Factors?

    Is experience a factor?
    Is race a factor?
    Is gender a factor?
    Is judgment a factor?
    Is military service a factor?
    Is religion a factor?
    Is marital status a factor?
    Is party affiliation a factor?

    I hate having "race" singled out as if it is the dominant factor that supercedes all over considerations.

    I suppose I should just get used to it because The Media and The Blogs will be beating that drum until November.  I used to believe in the myth of the Low Information Voter.  Now I believe in the Low Information Media.

    Parent

    the numbers in PA were even smaller (3.00 / 2) (#28)
    by TimNCGuy on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 07:56:52 AM EST
    and they were called a bunch of racists too.  In PA only 15% of whites said race was a factor and about 1/5 of those voted for Obama.

    On the other hand 30% of blacks said race was a factor in PA.

    Go figure.....

    Parent

    race may not have been a factor for (none / 0) (#98)
    by hellothere on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:09:04 AM EST
    many, but with the campaigning in the primaries, it may have moved forward in folk's mind.

    Parent
    sure thing oceandweller, (5.00 / 9) (#16)
    by cpinva on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 06:42:28 AM EST
    that would explain why the first several presidents were all men who had years of experience, because it clearly didn't matter to anyone.

    at 46, g. washington had been a succesfull surveyor, officer in the british army w/some modest achievements fighting in the french & indian war, ran a reasonably profitable plantation, been elected to the continental congress and, had been supreme commander of the continental army fighting the british for two years.

    all this with litte benefit of much formal education, but much reading and studying on his own, with the able guidance of his older half-brother and his wife.

    sen. clinton and sen. mccain, at 46, also had reasonably substantial resumes'. by comparison, sen. obama's is pretty slim. in fact, by comparison to almost every president, his is nearly nonexistent.

    while the constitution doesn't specifically require experience for the job, the citizens seem to feel it does provide some added benefit to the country, that the person holding it have some.

    additionally (5.00 / 7) (#25)
    by TimNCGuy on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 07:47:55 AM EST
    Obama's IL state senate accomplishments which were always touted to try to give him more "elected" experience than Clinton were all basically manufactured in his last year there by his "Svengali" to make it look like he had a record of accomplishment

    Parent
    Obama's lead at this point should be much (5.00 / 2) (#22)
    by carmel on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 07:25:09 AM EST
    bigger over McCain, especially with all those Independents that he's bringing over. Obama's tactics have been very mean spirited, and he strikes me as running the "Intolerant Party 08" not the Unity Party. The Obama campaign is making it very clear that they are "purging the party" of any non true believers. I have to say I don't believe in the Chicago way, so I must be "out". Maybe Obama can hire Heidi Klum to direct people "out" and under the bus.

    Chicago Politics (5.00 / 2) (#29)
    by mmc9431 on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:01:05 AM EST
    I don't see Obama as a mentor of the Daley book of Chicago politics. The Daley's have always made sure that the core Dem's in the party were taken care of. I can't imagine Mayor Daley thrashing half his base!

    Parent
    Exactly (5.00 / 4) (#59)
    by ruffian on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:41:13 AM EST
    these are not my father's Chicago politics. Obama is giving Chicago politics a bad name. ;-)

    Parent
    this is perfectly normal (5.00 / 1) (#37)
    by tben on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:17:27 AM EST
    All winning campaigns take over the running of the party. What do you think the Clintons did in '92? THats how politics works.

    Parent
    "Purging" (5.00 / 5) (#41)
    by tree on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:23:25 AM EST
    is not the same as "taking over the running of the party." Unless you're talking about the old Soviet Union.

    Parent
    sorry, but it is... (none / 0) (#42)
    by tben on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:25:28 AM EST
    Taking over running the party means putting your people in and the old people are out. Always been that way...

    Parent
    But it doesn't mean (none / 0) (#54)
    by tree on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:35:24 AM EST
    eliminating those people from the party ranks or its base, and that's what the Obama campaign is toying with these days...claiming not to need those who make up the democratic base if they aren't already loyal Obama followers.

    purge   verb, purged, purg·ing, noun
    -verb (used with object)
    1.    to rid of whatever is impure or undesirable; cleanse; purify.
    2.    to rid, clear, or free (usually fol. by of or from): to purge a political party of disloyal members.

    Parent

    not before presumptive becomes actual (none / 0) (#195)
    by JavaCityPal on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:24:11 AM EST
    But you must remember... (none / 0) (#34)
    by jtaylorr on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:15:59 AM EST
    this is a race for electoral votes, not the popular vote.
    Obama could win by only a few points in the the popular vote and still win with 300+ EV's.

    Parent
    It also (5.00 / 1) (#53)
    by mmc9431 on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:34:43 AM EST
    has the real possibility of being the other way around too. It could be 2000 all over again. The loss of key states like OH, MI, FL could destroy any gains elsewhere.

    Parent
    I still don't know (5.00 / 3) (#64)
    by ccpup on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:45:59 AM EST
    where people get Obama realistically getting to 300 EV.

    I think -- since Clinton did it without any hand-outs from the DNC or propping up by a VP pick -- that they try anyway possible to get Obama to that number.

    But he still loses FL, OH, PA and who knows what else by the time November gets here.  He has big problems which aren't being addressed by his campaign yet.  They're still having fun taking pot-shots at Clinton when they should be focusing on getting back her 18 million voters who have bolted -- or are on-the-fence -- from any responsibility to vote for him.

    I just don't see that, though.  I still see CDS.

    Parent

    These sites give reason to think he can get 300+ (5.00 / 2) (#84)
    by jtaylorr on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:59:01 AM EST
    FiveThirtyEight
    Electoral-Vote

    -Obama has a very good chance of winning PA, in fact, 538 gives him a 76% of winning it. He's led in every poll since April.
    -Ohio is more of a toss-up, though 538 gives him a 62% of winning and the last poll had him up by nine.
    -But I agree about FL, too much damage was done during the primaries. 538 gives him a 40% chance there.

    Parent

    without FL or OH (none / 0) (#112)
    by ccpup on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:17:08 AM EST
    you don't have the Presidency.

    Just ask Kerry.

    Parent

    Did you even look at the links I posted? (5.00 / 1) (#129)
    by jtaylorr on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:31:23 AM EST
    Barack Obama is not John Kerry.
    Obama has consistently lead polls Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico through this process, states Kerry didn't win. In fact, no poll has ever shown Obama behind in Iowa or Colorado.
    If Obama were to win all the Kerry states plus those three, he is past 270.
    This doesn't even take into account the fact that Obama is leading in Ohio, Missouri and Virginia, and that North Carolina and Nevada are currently tossups.

    Parent
    The nomination race isn't the general (5.00 / 5) (#174)
    by Ellie on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:09:57 AM EST
    It's foolhardy to transpose opularity among Democrats and the Obama campaign's targeting for early wins (within the party and playing to media egotism / CDS) into general election success.  

    And polls aren't votes.

    Barack Obama is not John Kerry.
    Obama has consistently lead polls Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico through this process, states Kerry didn't win. In fact, no poll has ever shown Obama behind in Iowa or Colorado.
    If Obama were to win all the Kerry states plus those three, he is past 270.

    Kerry, and the Dems, insufficiently responded to swiftboating until it was too late.

    Kerry, and the Dems, insufficiently dealt with closing out and contesting the vote counting on election day. Their attempt to do so later fell to Bush excessively exaggerated a 1% 'mandate' as huge support for his regressive policies and incompetent governance, which the media trumpeted.

    One thing Kerry did not do was write off huge swaths of voters, activists, fund-raisers and donors as unnecessary because he had "new" ones to replace them.

    The hard right that Obama is courting now on the back of the Unity Pony will not wave him into power.

    Obama won't replace the actual voters -- millions -- with new untried ones among the various if if if if and if groups he's treating as givens.

    For example, signing enough new African American voters in GA to win that state is a fantasy and a shaky one at that. It's a strategic error to bank on that and use it as a basis to predict a landslide win.

    Please. Obama had to be transported across the nomination line in a wheelbarrow and even now, the "brilliant" campaigning hasn't been sealed.

    This is without being under continual Republican assault.

    Parent

    It was said yesterday that Obama (none / 0) (#149)
    by zfran on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:44:42 AM EST
    has a "plan" to win in EV w/o Ohio and Florida. Guess he has it all figured out!!!

    Parent
    Of course. (none / 0) (#73)
    by jtaylorr on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:50:02 AM EST
    It's too far out to say anything is definite. Though I should point out, realistically, Obama only needs to win two of the key states (PA, OH,  MI, FL), and a win in VA would mean he could lose three of the key states and still win.

    Parent
    A win in Virginai would (none / 0) (#198)
    by Salo on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:25:34 AM EST
    be a leading indicator of a huge Demographic victory in other states.  Other states would be within Obama's demo margin if he wins Virginia.  which he will not.

    Parent
    I think what it all means is that (5.00 / 18) (#30)
    by Anne on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:02:04 AM EST
    there are a lot of questions on all sides.  We're looking at an election between one man who has limited experience, a growing emphasis on bringing evangelicals into the mix which is likely to shift him decidedly to the right, questionable judgment in his associations, a history of getting his opponents removed from the ballot, an alarming disregard for voters in two states, doesn't seem too fond of actual work, talks one position and acts another, wants all kinds of credibility on a pre-war speech, but has delivered a mixed message in both his voting record on the war and his campaign's discussions about it, almost voted for John Roberts and defended the yes votes of his colleagues, voted for the Cheney energy bill - and another man who can't seem to remember what he said and when he said it, is all over the place on Iraq, seems to have little grasp of economic issues, is decidedly anti-choice, has an undeserved reputation as a maverick, is a sure bet to extend the long national nightmare of George Bush.

    Can't vote for McCain.  Won't do it - he's not a substitute for Clinton in any way, shape or form.

    Still waiting to figure out who Barack Obama is, what he really believes in, whether he can represent the interests of long-time Democrats, if he is capable of bringing the party together, what he thinks the party should look like, whether he will do the right thing and allow - allow - Clinton's name to be on the first ballot at the convention.  

    I may not be officially an independent, but there are a lot of people like me out there, who are not at all sure we can vote for Obama, not the way things look right now.  We see that he keeps getting these opportunities to be the unifying force he claims to be, and over and over, he chooses to stay on the path of divisiveness.  At some point, one has to ask why that's the choice he keeps making, and what that means for him as a possible president.  I have to say, it seems way too much like Bush for me.

    There are millions of us watching and waiting, observing and taking it all in, adding it up to see what we get.  

    Obama should be worried about us.


    That backstory about O needing reminding (none / 0) (#166)
    by brodie on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:04:32 AM EST
    about being stuck with JR's votes should he vote to confirm was, uh, sobering to say the least.  At first I thought he was just politically a little less smart than advertised, but then it occurred that he might have seen in the mild mannered and congenial Roberts an opportunity to show how moderate and bipartisan he could be (sigh).  

    But in the end he did the right thing and we have to credit him for that.

    Unlike certain lib Dems such as softie Pat Leahy and mercurial maverick Russ Feingold who voted to confirm Roberts.

    Oh, and I don't see O as anti-choice at all.  He'll be picking Scotus justices who will uphold Roe.  Failure to do so, to carefully vet potentials on this matter, would be politically fatal and lead to a one-term lame duck presidency.  Not gonna happen.

    Parent

    I'm starting to get that sick feeling (5.00 / 2) (#48)
    by Lil on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:29:39 AM EST
    that Obama will lose in Nov. I didn't think it was possible for Dems to lose against McCain, but I don't feel real confident.

    Lord be praised! We are making progress (5.00 / 5) (#102)
    by goldberry on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:12:47 AM EST
    Some of us have seen this coming for a long time.  When push comes to shove, Republicans will fall in line,  That is their personality type.  The Rovians will start to gin up the fear factor and hype national security issues.  If the economy is tanking, they just need to bring in a strong VP who has successful executive experience.  Christie Todd Whitman is a natural choice as a former 2 term governor of NJ. It's not like Obama has any economic bona fides of his own to fall back on. Bring back Paul O'Neill and a couple other economic gurus and voile!
    He's in like Flynn.  
    No, Obama doesn't have a chance, Never did.  We tried to tell them but they wouldn't listen.  They were so intent in purging the ranks of the FDR types.  Congratulations, they have written their own defeat.  

    Parent
    Whitman (none / 0) (#162)
    by huzzlewhat on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:59:36 AM EST
    If the economy is tanking, they just need to bring in a strong VP who has successful executive experience.  Christie Todd Whitman is a natural choice as a former 2 term governor of NJ.

    Whitman would make things very, very interesting. On top of her strong economic credentials, she's a moderate Republican who has spoken out about the wrong path her party took -- published a book criticizing the party's direction. She's got baggage with the false 9/11 environmental reports, but she's also got ammunition to counter that by being one of the few administration members who resigned on grounds of principle. If McCain is looking for a moderate figure, who appeals to women, and who would signal distance from Bush, Whitman is incredibly appealing.

    Parent

    can she do the attack dog routine? (none / 0) (#192)
    by Salo on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:23:07 AM EST
    I'm OK with it (5.00 / 3) (#92)
    by Sunshine on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:04:35 AM EST
    For the first time I am glad to live in Texas, a state where my vote won't count..  Everybody knows who is going to win here in the vote for president, for congress, the Dems still have a chance... I will vote down ticket straight Democrat and leave the top spot blank...  By 2012 whoever wins will be known as the wrong choice, so I will be able to say "Don't blame me, I didn't vote for him...

    Christie Whitman will seal the deal for McCain (5.00 / 1) (#96)
    by goldberry on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:06:46 AM EST
    She's the moderate pro-choice former governor of NJ, a state that did pretty well under her governorship.  She was the EPA administrator but well known to be opposed to some of Bush's policies especially wrt global warming.  

    Plus, her daughter is running for congress and Whitman could have coattails.  

    Hmmm, maybe Obama needs us after all, eh?

    Do you know (none / 0) (#107)
    by Dr Molly on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:15:33 AM EST
    if McCain is considering Whitman?

    Parent
    Have no clue but... (none / 0) (#126)
    by goldberry on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:29:48 AM EST
    ...he's have to be stupid not to consider it.  It would be a winning ticket, hands down.  They would be well matched and balanced.  Even I might vote for it.  
    Right now, I am leaving my options open.  I would prefer that the Democrats start to seriously court me for my vote.  They'd have to do a lot of ass kissing and reverse many of the decisions they have made about the convention but I will offer them a second chance.  Obama has got to swallow his pride and grovel.  
    If it's not sincere enough, then I will consider my options.  But a McCain/Whitman ticket would be a sure winner.  

    Parent
    CTW??? C'mon folks, no Repub (5.00 / 1) (#152)
    by brodie on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:46:54 AM EST
    ticket is going to have someone on it who's pro-choice, as Whitman is, last I checked.  She would seriously undermine whatever gains McCain has made with the conservative base.

    Not to mention how the RW evangelicals would flee en masse with a McC/CTW ticket.

    No way.  He can't go to the left with his VP, not with the distrust he engenders with the Repub Right.

    Parent

    There are several women that (none / 0) (#187)
    by samanthasmom on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:20:23 AM EST
    McCain could consider, and some of them would garner an enthusiastic vote from me. CTW is probably the most moderate of his choices, and selecting her might get him enough "PUMA-love" to offset any right wing conservatives that defect or stay home. I could also happily vote for a McCain/Snowe ticket.  She's more conservative than CTW, but is first and foremost pragmatic. Sarah Palin would be an acceptable choice.  Kay Hutchinson is too conservative for my taste, but if we're going to have a John McCain presidency no matter what, then any woman as VP breaks that glass ceiling.

    Parent
    have you seen Youtubes of Palin? (none / 0) (#190)
    by Salo on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:22:04 AM EST
    The trouble with having a lass as a VP is that the VP must be effective at attack dog politics. Clinton was never allowed to do that by the media and was forced to shut up about what she was really thinking.

    Parent
    Media freely allow GOP Attack Lassies to bark (none / 0) (#209)
    by Ellie on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:50:20 AM EST
    Double standard, unlevel playing field, but Clinton had those strikes against her even before stepping up to the plate.

    Obama capitalized them and fomented the CDS to game the intramural race.

    The anti-Dem bias will be an additional incline for him to climb. He won't be able to cry racism NOR be able to take advantage of sexism should McCain run with a woman VP.

    The social conservatism Obama has embraced to pander to the right will also work against him with both the GOP (who'll paint it as empty posturing) and the Dems (who'll take it as authentic abandonment of core big-D and democratic principles).

    He has a HUGE amount of work to do, and wasting time and cred on last minute slaps of Sen Clinton look worse on him and deprive him of the benefit of the doubt for the judgment / talent he's assuming will fluff his lack of record, experience and merit.

    Stomping around alienating more voters with this "my way or the highway" is creating a rep the media can cite in short-form as hubris from an untried phenom who looks worse under closer examination. This is by his own words and actions and without even being smeared.

    He's toast in the general.

    Parent

    i believe the poll asked (5.00 / 2) (#138)
    by TimNCGuy on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:39:36 AM EST
    was it a FACTOR, not was it the ONLY factor or even the MOST IMPORTANT factor.

    Is it too hard to imagine that of that 15%, which I got from CNN poll results, and again many of those 15% actually voted for Obama, that many of them also being more conservative dems just preferred Clinton over Obama and were voting FOR Clinton and not AGAINST Obama.

    How many of that 15% were white women and have the same "historic" campaign reasoning to vote for Clinton as the blacks had for voting for Obama?  And, by your defintion, they are then not racists.

    On topic per the WaPo poll. . . . (5.00 / 3) (#146)
    by wurman on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:43:38 AM EST
    The polling indicates that Sen. Obama & Sen. McCain essentially split the independent vote.

    Some commenters in this thread point out that is how Kerry / Bu$h xliii played out--a split of the independents.

    It seems that prominent operatives in the Obama campaign have stated that it is their goal, intent, & objective to attract a high percentage of independents (as well as GOoPerz & fundagelicals) in order to broaden the voter base & form a more bi-partisan majority.

    If that is the plan, as frequently described, then the Obama campaign is not showing much success at this point.  To the extent that polling shows the independent voters evenly split, to that same extent Sen. Obama is not appealing to the largest possible group of "new" voters that he surely will need.

    My observation would be that the independent voters will wobble back & forth over the course of the campaign & settle at the end as about a 50/50 split.  History!  And that will leave the Obama campaign 3 to 5 percent short of the boost they need in several key states--according to their stated "plan."

    We have to consider the increase in voters who (none / 0) (#164)
    by kempis on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:02:12 AM EST
    identify themselves as Democrats. I forget the exact figures, but there are more Dems and fewer Repubs now than in 2004.

    This means that the same percentages of support from D, I, and R actually translate into more votes for the Democratic candidate....I think.

    Parent

    Party affiliation research, Dem-Ind-Rep (5.00 / 1) (#207)
    by wurman on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:42:38 AM EST
    I've read several comments about some trend(s) or another or others.

    The Gallup Poll (link) doesn't support that:

                    Republicans Independents Democrats

    2008 May 8-11      27           35           37
    2007 May 10-1      27           38           34
    2006 May 12-13    30           36           34
    2005 May 2-5       35           30           34
    2004 May 2-4       32           31           36
    [These data are extrapolated by me; the link has vastly more info.]

    Generally, the very small shift has been from GOoPerz to Indies.  The Democratic Party registration has not made any significant gains that can even be remotely suggestive as helpful to Sen. Obama.

    If the Obama campaign is going to increase the size of "their" electorate, it must come from those self-proclaimed independents.  And it's not happening just now.

    I would also point out that new voter registration, when done legally & properly, does not guarantee the motivating organization that the newly franchised citizen will vote for the political candidate running the voter campaign.  In fact, my experience is that the newly minted voter will go out & vote just about as per the Gallup figures.  That is not a "winning" strategy, even if it is a noble exercise.

    Parent

    Sigh (5.00 / 6) (#147)
    by tree on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:44:07 AM EST
    So, when they say they won't vote for the black candidate what reason, other than racism, can it be?

    Number one, this isn't what people were saying in the poll. Some number of people said that race was a factor in their decision. The overwhelming majority of those who said that said it was one of many factors, not the only or the overriding factor. No one was asked in the exit polls whether they would have ever voted for any black candidate, regardless of who it was.  If someone had answered "no" to that question then its a reasonable assumption that racism is the reason. But you can't make that assumption just because someone didn't vote for Barack Obama. There are multiple reasons not to vote for him that have nothing to do with race.  

    For an example, if I was being completely honest taking an exit poll, I might have said that race was one of several factors that I considered in my vote.(But, honestly, I would never answer that question in the affirmative, because I know that many people like you will misinterpret what  my affirmative  answer means.) I would like to vote for a black candidate, because I would like to encourage more black candidates to run and to serve. But that isn't the only factor I consider. I have to agree with the candidate's agenda and feel that the candidate's character will assure me that they will serve my interests, and their constituents interests, well. For those reasons I would not support Obama in the primaries. On the face of it my vote would be falsely interpretted as a "racist" vote when it is not.

    If you want to be free of stereotyping, then don't make general assumptions that can't be backed up by fact. Stereotyping whites isn't any more acceptable than stereotyping blacks. A vote against Obama, even by someone who considered race      as one factor in their vote, is not necessarily a racist vote, despite your desire to pigeon-hole it as such.

    correct (5.00 / 3) (#159)
    by TimNCGuy on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:55:13 AM EST
    I forgot to add this explanation to mine above.  It is the same as those who continually said they are not sexist, they would be willing to vote for a woman, just not THIS woman.  But, Obama supporters can't get their brain around the same statement applied to Obama because they can't think of ANY reason other than race to not support him.

    I would vote for Colin Powell easily.  But, not Obama.

    Parent

    So much for the Independents (5.00 / 3) (#165)
    by madamab on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:04:05 AM EST
    that are all flocking to Obama. As usual, the hype doesn't match the reality.

    Expect that number to go way down after the August swiftboating happens. McCain the Maverick will be a lot more appealing to Independents after that.

    Because some (5.00 / 4) (#186)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:19:40 AM EST
    believe that what the Democratic Party has done in putting their thumb on the scale for Obama (RBC, etc) should not be rewarded with a presidential win.

    It's as simple as that.

    It has nothing to do with the next 4 years.  It has to do with changing the course of the party LONG term.

    People love to bring up strawmen on this subject, but when they do, they sound very Republican.

    again you aren't listening, (5.00 / 5) (#193)
    by tree on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:23:36 AM EST
    you are just assuming.

    In spite of your defense, these people are racist because they are unwilling to vote for a non-white person, regardless of what other reasons they may have had.

    Nobody asked these people if they were willng unwilling to vote for a non-white person. That wasn't the question. You can't make a statement like that and be truthful. You seem very limited in your view point. Things can only be black or white to you. There can only be one reason for saying that race was one factor in your vote and voting against Obama  in your mind, but yet you fail to realize or accept that not everyone thinks the same way you do.  

    Why would you need to vote for a black candidate in order to encourage other black candidates to run?

    I wouldn't  NEED to do so,  but I might want to do so. As with women, the more black candidates that run sucessfully for office, the more that would encourage other blacks to run. If blacks or women think that they can't win an election then they are much less likely to run. I'm surprised that you can't even understand that viewpoint. Think outside the box.

    "Virtually Unchanged" (5.00 / 4) (#194)
    by blogtopus on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:23:41 AM EST
    "Nearly a quarter of those who said they favored Clinton over Obama for the nomination currently prefer McCain for the general election, virtually unchanged from polls taken before Clinton suspended her campaign."

    Could it be because Obama's attitude towards Clinton and her supporters also remains unchanged since she suspended her campaign?

    Remember kiddos: We're not an automatic Dem voting machine, you need to convince us* to vote for Obama (as opposed to trying to MAKE us vote for him). Screeching about McCain only convinces us not to vote GOP; halfway won't always close the deal.

    Truly it seems that the soft sell is a lost art in the Obama generation.

    *I've decided to vote for Obama, but I'm definitely not going to be supporting him, and he's going to have a hard ass time in office from people like me.

    Some good news (5.00 / 0) (#203)
    by riddlerandy on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:29:30 AM EST
    for Dems

    "A new Public Policy Polling survey finds Sen. Barack Obama begins the general election in Ohio with a double digit lead over John McCain, 50% to 39%."

    They weren't asked if (5.00 / 3) (#206)
    by tree on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:37:52 AM EST
    racism played a part,and you know it. If that was the question, you would have never excused the 30% of blacks that said race was a factor and voted for Obama. Race is not the same word as "racism".

     

    Just to let you know, even though I am African American I plan on voting, again, for Ralph Nader.  For several reasons I consider Nader to be a much better candidate than any that we currently have, Obama included.  I do appreciate the historical context of his run but simply will not vote for him because of several of his views that I will not go into here.

    So, in other words, by your own admission, race is a factor in your voting but you still are voting for some one other than Obama. Think about it.

    Wrong assumptions (5.00 / 3) (#208)
    by Valhalla on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:46:30 AM EST
    Had Clinton not been in the race, and had Obama been up an equally inexperienced white male candidate in the final 2, I would have voted for him because of race.  I would have loved to be able to vote for the first AA for president.

    One of the things that makes me maddest about the DNC pushing Obama this year is that the Dems could have had it all.  Clinton would have kicked McCain's butt in the GE.  Eight years of Clinton.  Eight years for Obama to gain some experience, to be put on the national stage, maybe even get some foreign policy experience in the Senate.  Then run in 2016 and the Dems could have had 8 more years.

    They could have had 16 effing years in the WH, without dividing the party, without going with a 48-state strategy, without having the travesty of the RBC hearing for all the world to see, and without throwing the base out the door.

    Would I have answered that race was a factor in my vote, had that been the situation?  D*mn right I would.

    Blaming Clinton (5.00 / 1) (#210)
    by Prabhata on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:59:01 AM EST
    For months those who supported Obama bashed Clinton for not quitting and being the whole reason Clinton supporters did not like Obama. There is not much he can do to turn people like me around.  McCain may have many policies I disagree with, but he is mature and I know what I get if he becomes president.  Another 4 years of an immature president with no experience is not acceptable under any circumstances. I'm one of those dyed-in-the-wool Democrats who will not vote for Obama.  Oh, wait, I'm not a Democrat any more. I re-registered as an independent after I voted June 3.

    McCain Is A Good Man... (5.00 / 1) (#211)
    by JoeCHI on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 11:14:33 AM EST
    ...and this Democrat is looking forward to voting for him!

    One thing's for certain. (4.00 / 4) (#17)
    by Perry Logan on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 06:42:53 AM EST
    One thing's for certain: we're gonna have a lousy President for the next four years.

    http://perrylogan.org/images/SameLame.jpg

    "At this point four years ago..." (none / 0) (#1)
    by germanliberal on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 04:09:20 AM EST
    It's slightly worrying that Obama doesn't do better in the polls than Kerry did at this juncture. The leads are certainly no reason for complacency...

    Kerry polls... (none / 0) (#3)
    by Alec82 on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 04:43:20 AM EST
    ...were all over the place in 04.  

     I doubt this election was ever going to be anything other than close, once they chose McCain.

    Parent

    The headline Obama lead makes no sense (none / 0) (#6)
    by BigB on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 05:18:29 AM EST
    If independents are split between Obama and McCain, and 90% of Republicans support McCain and a bit less than 80% of Democrats support Obama then how is that Obama is leading McCain?

    Can anyone explin this to me?

    I don't know, (none / 0) (#9)
    by massdem on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 05:24:03 AM EST
    maybe more registered democrats?

    Parent
    Re: I can explain it (none / 0) (#7)
    by giovanni da procida on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 05:20:53 AM EST
    For one thing, there are more registered democrats than republicans.

    EXPERIENCE CAN BE SOMETHING....TOO MUCH (none / 0) (#13)
    by Oceandweller on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 06:08:11 AM EST
    i AM AWARE LOADS OF PEOPLE  ARE IN THE EXPERIENCE MCCAIN THING...BUT...
    but while I dont deny it I would appreciate that our look out of it would not limit itself to american history. Admittedly McCain has a long.too long political past and Barack is but 46ys of age, but no where in the constitution it is said that one cannot run because of his age dont forget the constitution was written by people who lived in a ear where a woman was old at 30! ANY MAN LIVING TO BE 60 WAS AN ELDER . Think about it. And if we feel that much strongly about Obama and his youth ?! and say at the same time it is mnot personal against Obama WE SHOULD PUSH FOR A  constitution admenment , isnt it! That is as good when people grumble about McCain age, if you feel he is too old then prevent any 70ys man to run next time. By the way, Napoleon at 30ys had already shown the great general and politician he was by giving a constitution and governement lines which are still used by his country 300ys later, Petain who was a great WW1 marshall proved in his winteryears to be the appaling Vichy leader, etc etc.
    In this election we forget to look afar afield and dont see that othet countries have had teh very same problem and age was not an issue, I should say to carry on with the french analogy that Napoleon successor Louis 18TH who rose to power at a very late age, restored successfully his country , carried on quite a few thing sof his napoleonic enemy and proved to be an asset to his country despite being ill healthed to boot. Guys amnd gals, age and experience has noithing to do with leadership , people in very stressful times can be awesome or monstruous. age and experience have nothing to do with it , either you have that magic or you dont have it, either you like  john or barack and say you have that gut feel he is the best for your country and you votre for him or you dont
    and at the end, either that leader has it or not and the very least you can do for your country if your gut feel proved wrong is to say I was wrong. Carter was new and appaling, Reagan was good and old, but the contrary is also true. Dont debase yourself by not following your heart. THATCHER WAS A leader because she believed in , not because she was always right and to this day her legacy is still under scrutiny.
    experience can be something too much... for all we know barack may be as hapless as maccain, mc cain may lead us in the worst quagmire ever between iraq iran and all the middle east on fire, barack may cut a few too many chinese trade treaties , McCain may run amock with choice LEGISLATION
    at the end, it is not always the best they can do, but the certainty of them not doing damage that will select our choice  but please no age no experience issue , history for one thing has told us repeatedly those 2 issues are irrelevant, because at the end, either you do or you dont and age ande experience has nothing to do with it

    Oh, boy. (5.00 / 6) (#20)
    by Cassius Chaerea on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 07:01:05 AM EST
    Learn to spell. Or use a spell checker.

    Learn to use the paragraph.

    Learn to express your theses with clarity. If people can't understand you, you aren't communicating with them.

    Don't shout.

    Just sayin'.

    Parent

    But think of the possibilities! (none / 0) (#133)
    by goldberry on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:35:27 AM EST
    Let's say an old geezer dies in office but has a woman VP.  She becomes the first female president of the US!  Whodathunkit?  The Republicans actually manage to break the glass ceiling!  In that case, the older the better for McCain.  
    Something to think about.   ;-)

    Parent
    If Palin can attack she's obviously a (none / 0) (#189)
    by Salo on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:20:32 AM EST
    strong VP pick.

    she exudes a sort of warmth that many Pols lack.

    Parent

    Concern (none / 0) (#19)
    by mmc9431 on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 06:50:25 AM EST
    In the open New Hampshire primary, the problem that confronted Obama was the Imdependants split even between him and McCain. (Same as this survey shows). And Obama lost. McCain's perceived maverick image serves him well with this group.

    I've been thinking that a lot of people that say they're independants are really Republican's in hiding! Just like when the right was able to tarnish the "liberal" label, a lot of liberals chose the independant tag.

    Not true (5.00 / 5) (#105)
    by goldberry on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:15:11 AM EST
    I am a new independent who is not a Republican in hiding but a Democrat in Disgust.  

    Parent
    With or without your permission, (none / 0) (#123)
    by samanthasmom on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:26:00 AM EST
    I'm stealing that.  "Democrat in Disgust"  I love it! 8^)  I might even make myself a bumper sticker.

    Parent
    Be my guest <eom> (none / 0) (#135)
    by goldberry on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:36:12 AM EST
    There are plenty of liberals right now who (5.00 / 1) (#113)
    by Joelarama on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:17:53 AM EST
    are proud of that label but have mixed feelings about the Democratic Party label.  

    Parent
    I'm confused (none / 0) (#27)
    by Steve M on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 07:56:11 AM EST
    I must have read a million times that Obama is already winning a similar share of Democrats to what Kerry and Gore got.  Surely 80% is not that number.

    Exit Polls From 2004 Election (5.00 / 1) (#33)
    by MO Blue on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:15:33 AM EST
                Kerry        Bush  

    D           89%          11%
    R              6%          93%
    I             49%          48%

    Parent

    Interesting that Independents (none / 0) (#65)
    by ruffian on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:46:03 AM EST
    were basically a tie in 2004 as well. Obama based his strategy on bringing more of them over than other Dems do. It will be interesting to see if all of his tacks to the right to get them pay off.

    Parent
    What will be interesting to me is how much (5.00 / 2) (#137)
    by MO Blue on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:38:47 AM EST
    further and in what areas he choses to track to the right from now until November. I will be taking note of those areas and what he has to say particurly about Iraq and Iran, SCOTUS appointments, choice, trade and religion. At this point in time, Obama needs to convince me to vote for him. I already know that I won't vote for McCain but don't exactly trust Obama on the issues I care about and definitely don't like the direction he seems to be taking the party.

    Parent
    If you look at the data (none / 0) (#184)
    by Salo on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:18:48 AM EST
    I'd say that 6% of GOp think of themselves as Indies and 11% of Dems think they are Indies.

    So it wasn't really split.

    Parent

    Independent doesn't mean centrist. (none / 0) (#182)
    by Salo on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:17:45 AM EST
    Gore got 86% (none / 0) (#32)
    by tben on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:14:33 AM EST
    Kerry 88%

    One normally sees Party numbers go up as the election nears. Obama seems on track for a normal showing.

    Bush got in the mid nineties of Republcians, so McCain has a few points to gain as well, as he probably will.

    Parent

    Why normal? (5.00 / 1) (#170)
    by waldenpond on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:08:26 AM EST
    In a year when the Repubs are so unpopular, the traditional trend is to switch parties, the Dems are supposedly supermotivated... why is Obama going to have a normal split of the Dems?  No need to answer, it is just what occurred to me.  It was supposed to be a landslide, it may still be, but it hasn't looked like it for awhile.

    Parent
    So you're saying Obama is normal? (5.00 / 1) (#196)
    by MarkL on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:24:27 AM EST
    And maybe he'll lose like Gore and Kerry?
    That's encouraging!
    McCain is a much more likeable candidate than W.----far more popular with Democrats and Independents. Don't we need someone who is better than Gore or Kerry?

    Parent
    CNN exits from 2004... (none / 0) (#36)
    by mike in dc on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:16:55 AM EST
    ...suggested Kerry got about 89% of Democrats.  So 80 percent is not too far off that, especially with 20 weeks to go before the election and 10 weeks to go before the convention.  

    Parent
    That's something between 3 and 5% (5.00 / 2) (#70)
    by andgarden on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:48:05 AM EST
    of the overall electorate that Obama is leaving on the table--just from the D column.

    Parent
    But only (none / 0) (#80)
    by Emma on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:55:14 AM EST
    if it doesn't go up, right?  I expect Obama will get more Dem voters the closer to the election we get.  I believe most people aren't as involved in this as I am, for example.  IMO, there isn't really widespread outrage at the DNC, or on behalf of Clinton, that would keep people from voting Obama in November.  (I mean, I won't but I don't think I'm typical or even part of a sizable minority.)

    For me, the issue is can the 527s a) pull Dems from Obama and/or b) keep Obama from pulling Independents.  Are there other issues I'm not seeing?

    Parent

    don't forget ohio. (none / 0) (#97)
    by hellothere on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:07:07 AM EST
    Based on the information given, Obama (5.00 / 1) (#124)
    by MO Blue on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:27:26 AM EST
    is only polling in the mid to upper 70s and not 80%. Based on the large size of the pool of people in that category, the difference of 3 % to 5% (as andgarden indicates) is a whole heck of lot of votes.

    while not quite eight in 10 Democrats said they support Obama. Nearly a quarter of those who said they favored Clinton over Obama for the nomination currently prefer McCain


    Parent
    Well (none / 0) (#66)
    by Steve M on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:46:06 AM EST
    Where was Kerry polling among Democrats 10 weeks before the convention?

    Parent
    I don't think... (5.00 / 1) (#132)
    by mike in dc on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:34:22 AM EST
    ....that's an accurate comparison, since the 2004 primary season effectively ended in mid-March, and the 2008 primary season didn't effectively end until, what, 10 days ago?  

    I think it took a lot of Dean supporters a month or two to come around to supporting Kerry.  
    I expect Obama's numbers among Democrats will improve a bit between now and the convention, will improve a bit more after the veep pick, and will improve a lot after the convention.  If he matches or comes close to McCain's support among Republicans, then he winds up several points ahead because of the disparity in party ID this time around.  Then all he has to do is run evenly among indies and unaffiliated, though I think he'll wind up beating McCain by at least a few points among this demo.  

    Parent

    National polls distort (none / 0) (#83)
    by HenryFTP on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 08:58:25 AM EST
    the real picture, which is the Electoral College. Bush won squeakers in 2000 and 2004 because his campaigns largely kept their focus on that and not on more ephemeral nationwide trends.

    So the polling data are only interesting insofar as they illuminate the battleground states. Are the Democratic "holdouts" mostly in red states (as was often the case in 2000 and 2004) or do they pop up in the Rust Belt? Do independents in the battleground states view the economy or "security" as their most pressing concern?

    While I think McCain's "credibility" on national security issues is vastly overrated, I do not doubt the perception of his credibility, particularly because it is lionized by the media (and yes, sadly, Hillary lent her prestige to that mistaken concept). If the voters already perceive that Obama is an authentic Democrat on economic issues, then his shrewdest Veep option is one that will shore up his credibility deficit on national security.

    I think Wes Clark would be his best choice -- just as long as they're smart enough to keep him off the stump, where he is pretty mediocre, and in more intimate settings, where he is calm, well spoken reassurance. Unlike a professional politician, he has years of training of playing a second banana.

    I have always thought (5.00 / 1) (#103)
    by Dr Molly on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:14:54 AM EST
    that he would pick a military-type VP. He needs republican and independent votes, and therefore he needs a manly military man to shore up his perceived weaknesses.

    Parent
    i don't want to see clark as veep. (none / 0) (#95)
    by hellothere on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:06:23 AM EST
    having said that clark has had a lot more experience since the 2004 campaign, although you are right about his best face forward is a more informal setting.

    Parent
    Pick someone for VP who has (none / 0) (#158)
    by brodie on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:54:42 AM EST
    to be kept off the stump?  Uh, no.

    Gen Clark has my support for Secy' State,  DCI, UN Amb, or Nat'l Security Advisor, and then Sec'y Def in the 2d term.

    But he's far too much of a political neophyte to put on a nat'l ticket.  And putting in some time as a pundit on Fox doesn't nearly constitute the sort of overall experience needed in the rough and tumble of a fall contest against the Repubs where, as we know, the slightest misstep by our side gets amplified a hundred times by the might media Wurlitzer.

    No VP pick is going to solve all O's problems.  The good news, imo, is that nat'l security is turning out to be far less of a major threshold issue this year than it looked to be a year ago.

    I still think going experienced older Governor is his better option.  You want to argue shoring up nat'l security creds, then the better arguments are in favor of Nunn, Hégel or Jimmy Webb as Veep.

    Parent

    But but but (5.00 / 2) (#176)
    by Dr Molly on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:12:35 AM EST
    Nunn, Hagel, and Webb are either actual republicans or republicans disguised as democrats. Certainly not progressives. I thought Obama was a true progressive? That's what Markos told me.

    Parent
    Clark is a pretty good speaker (at least (none / 0) (#161)
    by tigercourse on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:59:25 AM EST
    in interviews). Nunn and Hagel are terrible choices for VP.

    Parent
    being good on TV is a must. (none / 0) (#178)
    by Salo on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:14:37 AM EST
    McCain has an attractive plan for Indy's (none / 0) (#144)
    by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 09:42:22 AM EST
    This leaps off the page: (none / 0) (#197)
    by oculus on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 10:24:35 AM EST
    Majorities view both men favorably,
     {Emphasis added.}

    new poll out that says obama will (none / 0) (#212)
    by hellothere on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 01:24:20 PM EST
    have a hard time in the south. georgia, we hardly knew you and then it was time to go. oh well maryland loves me not? (snark and puns, smile)

    Undecided voters (none / 0) (#213)
    by caesar on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 04:23:14 PM EST
    OK, if you are still undecided about who it is you are going to vote for, then you are just dumb. The candidates have been going at it for nearly a year now, and don't claim that you could never watch them or listen to their views due to work, because that is a copout. Undecideds simply like to remain in the spotlight to get attention. Creepy. Make up your minds already.