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Ras FL Poll: McCain By 8

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:25:28 AM EST
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In direct contradiction to recent Q and ARG polling, Ras sez McCain by 8 in Florida, and the off shore drilling issue does not hurt McCain:

The Florida survey also found that McCain currently leads Obama in the state by a 47% to 39% margin. Six percent (6%) said they would vote for some other candidate while 8% are undecided. However, after voters were told that McCain favored offshore drilling and Obama opposed it, McCain’s lead increased to eleven points, 49% to 38%. While a three-point net gain is not stunning, it is significant that the issue didn’t push voters towards Obama. All of McCain’s gains on the offshore drilling issue came from male voters.

Who is right? To be honest, this seems more in line with my feel for the state of the race in Florida.

By Big Tent Democrat

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    Ras FL Poll: McCain By 8 | 177 comments (177 topical)

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    I think Rasmuseen is right in both cases (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by andgarden on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:27:19 AM EST
    Ras took a snapshot yesterday and the day before, Q poll and ARG picked up the unity bounce.

    I think what's right is that Obama has some headroom in Florida, and he might think about spending some of his uncapped funds there pretty soon.

    Agreed. (5.00 / 2) (#3)
    by Pegasus on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:33:52 AM EST
    I'm taking yesterday's polls as... let's say aspirational.

    [ Parent ]
    Heh. (none / 0) (#99)
    by Robot Porter on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 11:33:58 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    What ad does he run? (5.00 / 6) (#4)
    by dianem on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:34:30 AM EST
    The one that brags about how he fought for the right of Floridians votes to not be counted? Or the one where he says that old, white Democrat's don't matter because he's building a new Democratic majority based on youth, minorities, and Republicans?

    [ Parent ]
    I rated this up because - (5.00 / 3) (#28)
    by Carolyn in Baltimore on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:43:32 AM EST
    Florida voters have a justified bad opinion of Obama. This is what he will need to counter to get the FL dem base behind him.
    Snark was justified.

    [ Parent ]
    You know what, I'm getting tired of this (4.63 / 11) (#6)
    by andgarden on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:35:27 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    I know. (5.00 / 2) (#8)
    by Molly Bloom on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:36:10 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    you should chin up (5.00 / 3) (#13)
    by Capt Howdy on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:38:01 AM EST
    because it isnt going away.

    [ Parent ]
    I'm sure the McCain campaign (4.20 / 5) (#16)
    by andgarden on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:39:24 AM EST
    will pay top dollar for it too.

    [ Parent ]
    adopting the strategy (5.00 / 4) (#29)
    by Capt Howdy on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:43:40 AM EST
    of calling anyone who questions the O a McCain republican is not going to advance your cause.
    just sayin.

    [ Parent ]
    It's a pretty obvious one though (5.00 / 1) (#72)
    by Salo on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 11:11:08 AM EST
    at teh very least Gore can't go down there and conplain about the rigged System in Florida that lead to Bush winning.  That's out the window for Dems this year.

    [ Parent ]
    Truly a pathetic (5.00 / 1) (#74)
    by talex on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 11:11:34 AM EST
    and lazy response.

    [ Parent ]
    You'll (5.00 / 6) (#15)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:38:57 AM EST
    get really tired of it, because the 527s are going to happily and readily use it.

    [ Parent ]
    You are absolutely correct....yesterday (5.00 / 2) (#46)
    by PssttCmere08 on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:48:35 AM EST
    I posted this and was downrated, but it is true like it or not:

    Repubs will go for obama's throat and (2.00 / 1) (#173)
    by PssttCmere08 on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 12:08:06 PM
    heart and will have little compunction about tearing them out.  obama has been on a cakewalk; and now he will be shown no mercy, not matter how rose-colored the glasses are that obama followers are wearing.


    [ Parent ]

    People Shouldn't Troll Rate Disagreement (5.00 / 1) (#88)
    by daring grace on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 11:20:23 AM EST
    Don't you agree?

    Down rate? I have no opinion since I only use 5s myself.


    [ Parent ]

    There is no troll rating here (5.00 / 0) (#93)
    by dianem on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 11:25:12 AM EST
    Trolls are dealt with by the moderator's. I don't rate much, except in closed threads where I can't comment, or when I don't have anything relevant to say but want to express agreement or disagrement with a comment. But please don't take a "1" too seriously. It simply means that somebody disagrees. There are no repercussions. A "1", or even a series of "1"'s, will not get somebody kicked off the site or have their comment hidden. It's just a way of expressing an opinion.

    [ Parent ]
    From Them (5.00 / 0) (#82)
    by daring grace on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 11:18:06 AM EST
    it's expected. Predictable, even.

    [ Parent ]
    1000 papercuts till DemCon, Big Ammo comes later (5.00 / 2) (#97)
    by Ellie on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 11:29:28 AM EST
    No worries, gang-trollrating hoping to bury uncomfortable truths about Obama's own words and actions will counteract the Rethug onslaught.

    Also the hundreds of Hope Ya Got Change oPods deployed to press their 2min "personal stories" on schlubs trapped in No (Wo)Man's Land between vehicle and mall.

    [ Parent ]

    OK (5.00 / 2) (#20)
    by samanthasmom on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:40:45 AM EST
    What message do think Obama should use to garner votes in Florida? Many of the people in Florida are McCain's demographics so "I'm not McCain" isn't likely to play really well.  What positive message do you think will?  This isn't snark.  I really want to know what you think might work.

    [ Parent ]
    Issues (5.00 / 2) (#27)
    by andgarden on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:42:38 AM EST
    Remember Hillary's concession speech? Start there.

    [ Parent ]
    More detail please (5.00 / 2) (#39)
    by dianem on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:45:49 AM EST
    Which issues? How does he spin them? Which parts of Clinton's speech should he use?

    [ Parent ]
    I suggest an ad with the following clip: (5.00 / 3) (#45)
    by andgarden on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:48:25 AM EST
    today, I am standing with Senator Obama to say: Yes we can.

    Together we will work. We'll have to work hard to get universal health care. But on the day we live in an America where no child, no man, and no woman is without health insurance, we will live in a stronger America. That's why we need to help elect Barack Obama our President.

    We'll have to work hard to get back to fiscal responsibility and a strong middle class. But on the day we live in an America whose middle class is thriving and growing again, where all Americans, no matter where they live or where their ancestors came from, can earn a decent living, we will live in a stronger America and that is why we must elect Barack Obama our President.

    We'll have to work hard to foster the innovation that makes us energy independent and lift the threat of global warming from our children's future. But on the day we live in an America fueled by renewable energy, we will live in a stronger America. That's why we have to help elect Barack Obama our President.

    We'll have to work hard to bring our troops home from Iraq, and get them the support they've earned by their service. But on the day we live in an America that's as loyal to our troops as they have been to us, we will live in a stronger America and that is why we must help elect Barack Obama our President.



    [ Parent ]
    An actual clip? (5.00 / 4) (#51)
    by dianem on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:51:53 AM EST
    Oh ... no.  Really. Not good. People who chose Clinton, who believed in her candidacy, are not going to like having him use her words, however magnanimous, to try to convince them to vote for him. It's a great clip, and it was a great speech, but he has to win them over with his own words, his own ideas, or he's just going to feed the resentment a lot of people have left over from the primaries.

    [ Parent ]
    Frankly, I disagree (5.00 / 3) (#53)
    by andgarden on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:53:24 AM EST
    We saw how powerful the unity bounce apparently was. Let's cement it.

    We have seen that people who were going to be bitter rejected the speech in the first place. To hell with them.

    [ Parent ]

    There's a world of difference (5.00 / 0) (#73)
    by mmc9431 on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 11:11:24 AM EST
    between sour grapes and criticism of a candidate or the position that the Party has taken. In this election cycle the Democrat's have a golden opportunity to really institute major changes. The country is begging for it. Moving to the right in order to win isn't going to work. If we do that we're no different than the Republican's So I will continue to push back when I hear Obama (or whatever the candidate's name may have been)trying to appease everyone. It's time for Democrat's to show some backbone.

    [ Parent ]
    Won't work (5.00 / 0) (#94)
    by americanincanada on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 11:25:27 AM EST
    Obama has to do this on his own. The best thing he could do, and it's still playing with fire if she isn't on the ticket, is have Hillary campaign with him there.

    As a Florida voter I am telling you, using a clip of Hillary's suspension speach is NOT, NOT, NOT going to help him.

    [ Parent ]

    As I Florida (half) voter, (5.00 / 0) (#103)
    by Nike on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 11:50:00 AM EST
    I want Obama to come and try to explain to us why he values our votes and the kinds of things he would hope to do that might convince us to give a full vote to him. (I have already heard Hillary's speech.) It's his case to make everywhere. Here in Florida, though, there are clearly both special burdens and big electoral votes at stake. There are assuredly some traditional base democrats who might want to hear why we should not follow Donna's Brazile's advice to the base, just stay home. This is a state that has been hit hard by the mortgage fallout, and so the economy might be a good place to start.

    [ Parent ]
    Umm...he's already shown you he doesn't (none / 0) (#169)
    by derridog on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 03:24:30 PM EST
    value your votes.  Maybe you could give him half a vote.

    [ Parent ]
    Wasn't a unity bounce (none / 0) (#178)
    by Valhalla on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 07:19:57 PM EST
    it was a nomination bounce.  Just about the same bounce Kerry got after the convention.

    Plus, even if it was a 'unity' bounce, unity is not a one way street.  Otherwise it's a 'submission' bounce.  And I'm having none of that, thank you.

    [ Parent ]

    FL is the perfect place for Hillary (5.00 / 1) (#96)
    by ruffian on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 11:28:19 AM EST
    herself to campaign for or with Obama. I expect to see some of that. Hope so anyway -I would go!

    [ Parent ]
    I agree on that (5.00 / 1) (#100)
    by dianem on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 11:36:59 AM EST
    But it's one thing for Clinton to campaign for/with Obama, and another entirely for him to use her words in a campaign commercial. I guess it's subjective, but I think it would turn people off. Obama has to start making his case himself, not depending on others to do so.

    [ Parent ]
    Not A Turn Off (5.00 / 1) (#102)
    by squeaky on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 11:45:36 AM EST
    But a hat tip to Hillary and further evidence that the two candidates that "split" the party actually share the same vision for the future of our country.

    [ Parent ]
    BIG turn off for this Florida voter (5.00 / 1) (#111)
    by americanincanada on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 12:03:15 PM EST
    it will not show me that the two candidates that "split" the party actually share the same vision for the future of our country.

    Instead it would illustrate to me that we have the wrong candidate nominated.

    He either needs her to campaign, with him not for him, or put her on the ticket.

    [ Parent ]

    Good For You (5.00 / 3) (#115)
    by squeaky on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 12:09:59 PM EST
    Knock yourself out and vote for McCain, it is a free country, for now.

    [ Parent ]
    How insulting is it (5.00 / 2) (#122)
    by americanincanada on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 12:16:47 PM EST
    for you to assume that everyone who is critical of Obama, or doesn't at this moment support him, is going to vote for McCain? If you don't listen to the voters you are doomed to lose them.

    At the moment I do not intend to vote for Obama but I have no intention of voting McCain either. I am hoping Obama does something to earn my vote. But I'm not holding my breath.

    What I am doing is pointing out things that, IMHO, won't work. And using Hillary's video taped words won't help.

    [ Parent ]

    Poor Baby (1.00 / 2) (#137)
    by squeaky on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 12:36:58 PM EST
    But then again it is not
    everyone who is critical of Obama
    that I am talking about here. It is everyone who is only critical of Obama here. And everyone who has acted exactly like everyone who was only critical of Hillary.

    Schoolyard fanclubs wars seem soooooo passé to me. But keep up the hate, I am sure it is exciting for you.

    [ Parent ]

    I don't think things like this will help obama (none / 0) (#131)
    by PssttCmere08 on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 12:32:46 PM EST
    either....just saying

    link

    [ Parent ]

    McCain or Obama is a false choice (4.00 / 3) (#142)
    by Ellie on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 12:48:18 PM EST
    This is just Club Obama fearmongering, besides which a McCain presidency isn't doom.

    I want to make sure we don't have another three decades of untrammeled right wing iron fisted rule aided and abetted by a cardboard "opposition" that exists for the cameras only.

    We need a stronger Congress with real Liberals, not the "people powered" DINOs that the fauxgressive netroots installed on the pay now, f*ck off later plan that hurtled women (AKA "special interests") back to medieval times on rights, health and as political players.

    No more trusting them ahead of time. Show leadership and earn people's support. Don't show it and you can be an answer on Trivial Pursuit, the Ohs.

    (Not my party, not my problem now, not my fault anymore or in the future.)

    [ Parent ]

    We all want our revoloution (5.00 / 1) (#145)
    by jondee on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 12:57:59 PM EST
    now. And the only way you get my Hill is by prying it from my cold, dead, fingers.

    If it's not your problem, your party, your ideal. your world etc etc why do you even bother?

    [ Parent ]

    My franchise is mine to use as I see fit (none / 0) (#153)
    by Ellie on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 01:14:53 PM EST
    You're asking the wrong person why I 'bother'. I don't have to support a political party or the Coke or Pepsi options for president to exercise my franchise.

    I'm taking my vote seriously and not as a free coupon to get on a cheesy bandwagon for the flavor of the month.

    You should be asking Obama supporters why they feverishly support a poor leader and his Me-Only-Ever actions that play behind his We-We-We empty cribbed speeches.

    The outrage about the outrage is tired.

    [ Parent ]

    Speaking of tired (none / 0) (#163)
    by jondee on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 02:16:47 PM EST
    so are those bitter, baiting, post-run off "Club Obama" cracks from those who simple cant bear the thwarted ascension of Our Lady.

    One might be inclined to assume that, unlike a MCCain presidency, the primary results really did "spell doom".

    The outrage about the outrage about the outrage is equally tired. But hey, it's your franchise.

    [ Parent ]

    It deffinitely bad for the court. (none / 0) (#146)
    by Salo on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 12:58:00 PM EST
    It's probably a wash on Iraq. Obama would be good for civil rights advancement.

    Hard to say what long term net effect having a GOPer in would do for healthcare (structurally) too. If Obama botches it or makes no effort on UHC it would have been better to wait four more years on it.  

    The history of UHC in the UK indicates that Labour sacrificed a second term in order to push through the reform for teh NHS.

    I see none of that willingness to sacrifice career over principle in the current nominee or his backers.

    [ Parent ]

    Wow (none / 0) (#147)
    by squeaky on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 01:02:38 PM EST
    McCain or Obama is a false choice
      For 99.9% of the voters in America that is the choice. To think that McCain or Obama is simply something coming out of a rarefied internet fan club seems really out there, imo.

    [ Parent ]
    I think day after day obama does or says (none / 0) (#116)
    by PssttCmere08 on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 12:10:11 PM EST
    something to show he doesn't feel he needs Hillary in his corner.  So, maybe it is time for him to step up to show these people why they should vote for him.  Seriously, how much do you think Hillary owes this guy?  In my book...nothing.

    [ Parent ]
    Will he appear (5.00 / 0) (#117)
    by LoisInCo on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 12:10:46 PM EST
    at the end and say " Me too!" ?

    [ Parent ]
    yeah, that'll work . . . (none / 0) (#152)
    by nycstray on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 01:14:22 PM EST
    Using a qualified, experienced woman's words to prop up an unqualified, inexperienced man.

    Disgusting.

    It's past time that Obama stands on his own two feet and words.

    [ Parent ]

    Which issues? (5.00 / 3) (#42)
    by samanthasmom on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:47:19 AM EST
    Social security? National defense? The economy? What should Obama say directly to the people of Florida?  He's not Hillary. Her relationship to the voters in Florida is different than his.  What should he say?

    [ Parent ]
    He can't be too much like Hillary (5.00 / 0) (#90)
    by americanincanada on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 11:22:08 AM EST
    or peopel are just going to get even more angry that she isn't on the ballot. Us Floridians are an ornery lot. We don't like to be lied to and we don't like having our votes discounted time and time again.

    This time it came from fellow dems and made it worse. this poll is very much in line with what I have been hearing from family and friends. Floridians are also starting to rethink the whole oil drilling thing and some, though not me, are willing to at least look at what that might entail.

    I'm not sure what will work for him but "I'm not McCain" and "Look Hillary supports me!" surely won't.

    [ Parent ]

    In FL, I think Obama (5.00 / 1) (#37)
    by indy in sc on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:45:13 AM EST
    should play up McCain's wanting to privatize social security and how his saber-rattling about Iran is only going to further destablize the middle east thus making Israel less secure. Florida has also been hit particularly hard by the mortgage crisis.  He should focus on that.

    [ Parent ]
    Ummm.. Obama's economic advisor also wants to (none / 0) (#170)
    by derridog on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 03:29:18 PM EST
    privatize social security.

    [ Parent ]
    He has (none / 0) (#172)
    by indy in sc on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 04:10:38 PM EST
    a group of economic advisors.  While one of them has expressed favorable feelings towards private SS accounts, Obama himself has voted consistently against it.

    [ Parent ]
    Are Floridians some kind of mutants (5.00 / 1) (#86)
    by Y Knot on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 11:19:41 AM EST
    or aliens or living in a different universe where the issues of the war, economy, civil rights, environment, energy etc. are not operable?  (OK, the bugs are mutants.  I'm talking about the people.)

    Pretty sure he'll go with his "this country has been royally messed up, and I'm gonna fix it," meme.

    [ Parent ]

    Floridians aren't mutants, (5.00 / 0) (#105)
    by samanthasmom on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 11:52:52 AM EST
    but people living in different states may have different priorities.  Although offshore drilling may be an issue for people living in Iowa, it's not likely to be as important to them as it might be to someone living in a coastal state with oil reserves offshore. Although we can probably agree on a list of priorities for the country, how we order them might vary from one state to another.

    [ Parent ]
    duh -- how about Social Security for starters? (none / 0) (#36)
    by A DC Wonk on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:44:43 AM EST
    McCain wants to privatize Soc Sec.  Obama doesn't.  There are also dozens of other issues where McCain is on the wrong side.  (oil drilling, Iraq, climate change, etc.)  You think all of those would be irrelevant to Floridians?

    [ Parent ]
    Well actually (5.00 / 2) (#75)
    by smott on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 11:11:59 AM EST
    Jeff Liebman, top fin'l advisor for Obama does seem to favor privatization. AT least he did in the paper he co-authored with Marty Feldstein.

    But, we can "hope" he has "changed" !


    [ Parent ]

    Nothing much really (none / 0) (#38)
    by Salo on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:45:35 AM EST
    The best he could do there is force Mccain to spend ad money in a home state.

    [ Parent ]
    So am I, actually (5.00 / 4) (#30)
    by dianem on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:43:57 AM EST
    But it's the way things are. You can't make reality go away by ignoring it or wishing it away. Obama screwed up royally during the primary and it will cost him during the general election. If you're tired of the arguments, then find a way to counter them. I would be very happy to see have my belief that Obama can't win the general election in Florida be effectively countered.

    [ Parent ]
    buck up (5.00 / 4) (#32)
    by Edgar08 on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:44:22 AM EST
    there's a war for the soul of the dem party on!

    The primary may be over, but not the war.

    [ Parent ]

    a-freakin-men edgar (5.00 / 3) (#41)
    by Capt Howdy on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:47:06 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    A war that entails (none / 0) (#149)
    by MKS on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 01:04:59 PM EST
    Obama's defeat in the General Election?  That's the goal?

    [ Parent ]
    Better find a bed (5.00 / 3) (#69)
    by talex on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 11:09:45 AM EST
    if you are tired! lol

    Sorry but things like Obama did to the voters of Florida just don't evaporate. He would have done the same anywhere - even your state.

    That you would like to dismiss his blatant and overt attack on not counting the votes of Americans, if not democracy itself, for his own self-serving purposes is appalling.

    He may as well setup road blocks or purged people from the voter rolls because in the end the result is the same.

    [ Parent ]

    Some Hillary supporters (none / 0) (#148)
    by MKS on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 01:03:37 PM EST
    may not support Obama....

    It can become a waste to time to try to convince people who refuse to be convinced.

    [ Parent ]

    A waste of time to work for votes? (none / 0) (#167)
    by lmv on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 03:03:10 PM EST
    If Obama can't/won't/can't be bothered to reach out to voters who don't like him, why is he running?

    Honestly, the whole Post-Partisan ship has sailed.  He's NOT going to rack up Repug votes.  

    And, he hasn't sealed the deal with Hillary supporters.  Instead, he's spent most of the last few weeks finding ways to diss her supporters.  (Solis Dolyle?  Elizabeth Edwards as his healthcare guru?)

    My local party (which is flat broke and in dire needs of volunteers) made it clear to Hillary supporters BACK IN MARCH that they weren't wanted.  I left.  I can take my vote with me, too.  


    [ Parent ]

    beating McCain there (none / 0) (#21)
    by Salo on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:41:01 AM EST
    would be a long shot.

    He's welcom to waste cahs in Florida though.   it may force McCain to counter advertize and waste resources there too.   So, we'll see.

    [ Parent ]

    Already on the ground (none / 0) (#61)
    by waldenpond on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 11:02:24 AM EST
    Some of the items of focus in an article (using consumer marketing data) were silly but it did note he has paid staff and volunteers in FL already.  Don't remember where, but it noted he had 5 paid staff on the ground just before the primary process was done.  Will need to see if he ramps it up.

    [ Parent ]
    get ready for an avalanche of (5.00 / 1) (#2)
    by Molly Bloom on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:33:35 AM EST
     I told you so and he can never get elected.

    Nah.... Why bother? (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by dianem on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:36:13 AM EST
    Polls this early in the season don't matter, whether they look goof for Obama or not. Polling outfits should really just give their people the summer off like schools give teachers time off. I'm sure that they will put in plenty of overtime come this fall.

    [ Parent ]
    Such a thing (5.00 / 0) (#12)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:37:48 AM EST
    would be similar to the gloating we saw yesterday about how he's gonna win the Hillary states BIG!

    [ Parent ]
    When it was mentioned yesterday that (5.00 / 2) (#52)
    by PssttCmere08 on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:52:58 AM EST
    perhaps the Q and ARG polls were too good to be true, many obama followers were very quick to say "look obama is ahead and gloated their little hearts out".  I did mention that perhaps we should wait a few weeks to see what shakes out, but they were too busy doing the happy dance.  I still say, wait a few weeks to see how it plays out.

    [ Parent ]
    Here's One Obama Supporter (4.00 / 0) (#95)
    by daring grace on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 11:27:12 AM EST
    Who is paying no attention to polls until after the conventions. Fun to watch them now, but zero meaning to them UNLESS they show week to week consistency which many of these (particularly battleground) numbers don't.

    As for gloating my heart out...who would I be directing that gloat at? McCain supporters? What's wrong with that?

    [ Parent ]

    First off, I said many, not all.... (none / 0) (#109)
    by PssttCmere08 on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 12:02:25 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Fair Enough (none / 0) (#162)
    by daring grace on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 02:06:32 PM EST
    I respond to these kinds of posts sometimes though because I see a lot of gloating, and related emotional responses fired by both sides, and that's simply not where I'm at with this election. (Or, frankly, usually in any election.)

    It's almost as if there is a separate constituency at play here, people joined not by what candidate they want, but by the nature of their relationship with that candidate: There are the vocally, vituperative supporters (of Obama and Clinton, both) and the supporters who don't see opponents as some evil enemy to be put down and gotcha-ed all the time (Again, Clinton and Obama supporters both.)

    I don't hang out at a lot of Obama-leaning sites for the same reason I sometimes find this one hard to take: Not because of which candidate I support, but because the level of rude passion is so unappealing and uninstructive.

    [ Parent ]

    Just like Clinton supporters in summer (none / 0) (#57)
    by Salo on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:55:21 AM EST
    touting useless national polls.

    [ Parent ]
    Now, now Salo...play nice...yeah most of (none / 0) (#112)
    by PssttCmere08 on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 12:03:28 PM EST
    them were useless...had obama ahead and Hillary smoked him.  We are talking today and the next few weeks.

    [ Parent ]
    Not quite (3.66 / 3) (#43)
    by Molly Bloom on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:47:47 AM EST
    Those making a big to do out of an early poll mainly just want a Democrat in the White House. Can't say I blame them, tho I take early polling with a grain of salt.

    Some of the negativity I have seen suggests some of those gloating today would rather lose and then say "see I told you so", regardless of the consequences of a McCain presidency and they will justify their attitude by  trying  to paint Obama as GOP Manchurian candidate.

    [ Parent ]

    Trouble is... (5.00 / 2) (#54)
    by Salo on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:53:24 AM EST
    ...the difference between McCain and Obama on Iraq is:

    80,000 troops or 60,000 troops respectively.

    Someone who sincerely believes in the value of occupying Iraq and someone who opposed it at the start but shows every intention of maintaining a an opposed occupation with tens of thousands of troops (even though he's not really into it).

    [ Parent ]

    Obama also sees nothing wrong with Blackwater. (none / 0) (#171)
    by derridog on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 04:01:16 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Don't be insulting (5.00 / 5) (#65)
    by dianem on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 11:06:45 AM EST
    My argument has always been that any polls taken this early mean virtually nothing, whether they are good or bad. It's just too soon. I also believe that Obama will not win in the fall. That is not the same as my not wanting to see a Democratic President in the White House this fall. I'd love to see that, just like I'd love to find out that global warming isn't really serious, that there are wonderful solutions in the works for the oil crisis, and that the Iraq War could really turn Iraq into a Democracy. Saying that people who feel negatively about Obama are against him is like saying that people who feel the Iraq War is a bad thing are against Iraqi Democracy. I'd love to be proven wrong about Iraq. I'd love to see Iraqi's living together in a free society, with all of the rights and freedoms that human beings should have.

    I have never seen a progressive supporting the "Manchurian candidate" idea being promoted by e-mail attacks on the right. I think you are confusing right wing Obama opponents with progressives who are angry/dismayed that the Democratic Party has chosen a lesser candidate.

    I wouldn't rather lose and say "I told you so". I would rather have a decent candidate who would be a sure thing and not ever have the opportunity to say "I told you so". I actually hate saying "I told you so"... it means that something bad happened that was predictable and could easily have been avoided.  

    [ Parent ]

    My second comment was not addressed to your (none / 0) (#76)
    by Molly Bloom on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 11:12:57 AM EST
    original point.

    [ Parent ]
    It was addressed to people like me. (5.00 / 3) (#83)
    by dianem on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 11:18:22 AM EST
    It was addressed to people who are critical of Obama. I fail to see why I should not respond simply because you didn't address me specifically.

    [ Parent ]
    If you wish to consider (3.00 / 4) (#91)
    by Molly Bloom on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 11:22:32 AM EST
    yourself in the group of "some people"

    Some of the negativity I have seen suggests some of those gloating today would rather lose and then say "see I told you so", regardless of the consequences

    knock yourself out.

    I did not, by any stretch of the imagination say every person critical of Obama would rather lose...

    [ Parent ]

    Confession: I want Obama to win (none / 0) (#130)
    by oculus on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 12:30:20 PM EST
    but not by too much.

    [ Parent ]
    I want Obama (5.00 / 1) (#139)
    by Valhalla on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 12:41:08 PM EST
    to start working on winning the votes of those he's thrown under the bus.  And the ones he's 'trending toward' throwing under the bus, even those who can't see it coming.

    [ Parent ]
    LOL (none / 0) (#133)
    by Molly Bloom on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 12:35:03 PM EST
    I appreciate you oculus. More than you know

    [ Parent ]
    Mutual, as I don't need to (none / 0) (#135)
    by oculus on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 12:36:28 PM EST
    chime in w/SGBTRvW anymore!

    [ Parent ]
    Yes (2.33 / 6) (#59)
    by squeaky on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:59:23 AM EST
    With democrats like these who needs republicans. Criticizing is one thing but the relentlessly bashing from many of the recent flock of commenters here may as well be coming from powerlie or  lgf.

    [ Parent ]
    The main trouble has actually been (5.00 / 4) (#62)
    by Salo on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 11:03:58 AM EST
    elected Democrats not following through on policy.  They did not move on UHC, they did not oppose the invasion, they did not strike down the Patriot act....and on and on.  

    All the big claims of change have been dialed back and recalibrated to suit the career plans of these leaders.

    So what is their game?  Don't bash ordinary observers and voters for thinking critically of the trends in the party.

    [ Parent ]

    You Have No Credibility (2.60 / 5) (#87)
    by squeaky on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 11:20:16 AM EST
    Because feigning taking the higher road by being critical of how the Dems have caved is a poor argument for selectively (and relentlessly) bashing the Democratic nominee. Were you and others here neutral in your criticism of the other Democratic candidates across the board, you might have legs to stand on, but that has not been the case.

    Obama is running against a Republican, that is the cogent comparison. Getting the Democrats to represent our interests is another argument. Your best chance of getting what your purported interests accomplished is to follow Hillary's lead and get behind Obama and work to get as many Dems elected so that our party has some teeth for a change.

    [ Parent ]

    He is a sitting senator. (5.00 / 3) (#106)
    by Salo on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 11:57:52 AM EST
    You'll see that Tony Blair took on John Major long before the election campaign that elevated him to the Prime Ministership.

    I do not see Obama tangling with Bush at all. I see lot's of semantic games that he's playing with McCain but we still have the second term of Bush to worry about before we have to worry about a third term.

    My credibility on this doesn't amount to much either way. I'm an observer not a participant.

    [ Parent ]

    Uncommitted on Obama, I want a muscular Congress (5.00 / 2) (#113)
    by Ellie on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 12:06:27 PM EST
    I want a Congress that does its job regardless of who's in the White House, and isn't reduced further to becoming an arm of the Obama Personality Cult.

    He's been a poor senator, a poor campaigner and his Unity Pony schtick is just a garish fundraising gimmick that hasn't even shown it will pay off for the party or for downticket Dems.

    What Club Obama burns to run in place is the political version of the Pentagon's self-sucking ice cream cone. We don't need another version of Bush in the White House, even "ours".

    I genuinely believe that writing Uncommitted on my ballot for Pres (rather than Clinton or other considerations) and helping elect strong spines to Congress is the only intelligent way out of this mess.

    I don't want Clinton or her supporters scapegoated for Obama's messes in his current campaigning or (if he gets to the WH) in governance.

    Donna Brazile can Mama-toss on election day on why an Uncommitted vote actually belongs to Obama.

    [ Parent ]

    For some of us (5.00 / 4) (#114)
    by samanthasmom on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 12:08:48 PM EST
    getting the Democrats to represent our issues is the biggest significant factor in this election.  Giving the Democrats "more teeth" so that they can continue to not represent us is the the crux of the problem. What good would more Democrats be if they are as lily-livered as the ones we already have? (See post on FISA.) Our criticism of Obama centers on not having high expectations that he will deliver on any of the issues that are important to us. Holding his feet to the fire before November is the only leverage we have when the trust isn't there. You mistake criticism for bashing. That's an objectivity problem.  He's not my first choice for President, and if he wants my vote, I get to question him.

    [ Parent ]
    Identify one lie (5.00 / 3) (#80)
    by dianem on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 11:15:39 AM EST
    ...being promoted by the "bashers". Having people point out unpleasant truths may not be a very comfortable thing, but it's not fair, or reasonable, to compare people who simply don't agree with your candidate to right-wingers.

    I challenge Obama supporter's to stop using ad hominem attacks (comparing critics to extremist Republcans) instead of countering rational arguments. Some do, but there are a lot more personal attacks flying around than there are rational arguments.

    [ Parent ]

    you'd think they would want an argument (5.00 / 1) (#85)
    by Salo on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 11:19:01 AM EST
    harmony on these issues is a least as disturbing as dischord.

    [ Parent ]
    The Big Lie (1.00 / 6) (#101)
    by squeaky on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 11:40:53 AM EST
    Is that the "constructive criticism" has been extremely selective. Had you been even handed in your criticism during the nomination process you might have an argument for relentlessly bashing Obama now.

    At this point you are in bed with the GOP, or may as well be.

    [ Parent ]

    How authoritarian of you (5.00 / 5) (#108)
    by dianem on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 12:00:18 PM EST
    "If you're not with us, you're against us". I was not with you during the primary, when Obama ran the sleaziest campaign in recent Democratic history. I am not with you now, when you refuse to address my concerns, but instead choose to insult me. I am pleased and proud to not be with you. I'm also not with the GOP, although you obviously don't see the distinction between not aggreeing with you and agreeing with your opponent. I actually see positives and negatives for both Presidential candidates. I don't plan on voting for McCain or Obama - but I won't tolerate the b*ls*t argument that anybody who doesn't worship Obama is a GOP troll.

    [ Parent ]
    Quite The Contrary (1.80 / 5) (#121)
    by squeaky on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 12:16:06 PM EST
    I was not with you during the primary, when Obama ran the sleaziest campaign in recent Democratic history. I am not with you now, when you refuse to address my concerns, but instead choose to insult me. I am pleased and proud to not be with you.

    You voted as I did, but I certainly never lost my self in a cult fantasy that Hillary was anything more than another mainstream Democratic Politician, a really good one, but a Pol who had very little substantive difference than the others who ran against her.

    Your criticism of Obama is worthless, imo, as you have been blinded by intra-partisan love and hate. A fixation has ensued.

    [ Parent ]

    You assume too much (5.00 / 4) (#134)
    by dianem on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 12:35:10 PM EST
    I was never a Clinton fanatic. I was an Edwards supporter who was not a Clinton fan and would happily have supported Obama. I gradually shifted to Clinton as I began to feel that she was a better option than Obama, and I came to dislike Obama gradually as I watched him tolerate his campaigns use of race and shallow marketing instead of promoting him based on sound political ideas. I have never felt that Clinton was anything but a polician, but I have no problems with politicans running for political office - why should I? I do have a problem with Politicians basing their campaigns on vague promises that can mean all things to all people, and politicians who constantly change their positions, and policians who choose to run on "don't vote for the other guy" instead of "vote for me, because...".

    My reasons for not supporting Obama are simple, and have nothing to do with Clinton worshp. Obama is not experienced enough to be President. If he had run a fair campaign, he would have lost, but he would have set himself up for a win in 4 or 8 years. He was hungry, or afraid, and he chose to play dirty. I can't support a candidate who won by tarring people who have worked their entire lives for equality for all people as racists.

    [ Parent ]

    For Someone Who Is Not (1.00 / 2) (#144)
    by squeaky on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 12:55:00 PM EST
    A clinton fanatic you sure seem to have taken this race personally. Were you run out of a pro Obama site before you came here. You sound angry. Is it because some low life idiots showed you how much they hated Hillary and women in general? I know plenty of women who have fought against sexism and mysogeny for years but are Obama supporters. They do not blog though, although I can't imagine that they would focus on the idiots, considering that there are so many more interesting people to focus on.  
    I do have a problem with Politicians basing their campaigns on vague promises that can mean all things to all people....

    So you prefer Politicians who make promises that are specific but nonetheless never delivered?  

    Sorry, I do not believe any of them. A quick look at votes and major policy speeches tell me much more about what to expect than nodding my head to the tune of general or specific campaign promises.

    GIven that Obama, Edwards, and Hillary are all pretty much the same. McCain is miles away, in case you have not noticed.

    [ Parent ]

    Squeaky please: 'You sound angry.' (5.00 / 1) (#150)
    by Ellie on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 01:05:19 PM EST
    OMG, where did the site ever find you:

    Were you run out of a pro Obama site before you came here. You sound angry. Is it because some low life idiots showed you how much they hated Hillary and women in general? I know plenty of women who have fought against sexism and mysogeny for years but are Obama supporters. They do not blog though

    Are you that stock farce character that's dressed up like Freud but is actually one of the escaped lunatics from the asylum?

    Yeah, I've run into more than a few low life idiots lately.

    [ Parent ]

    Ellie! LOL! (5.00 / 1) (#151)
    by Dr Molly on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 01:13:38 PM EST
    'you sound angry'. Would you prefer, 'you sound:

    -strident
    -shrill
    -humorless
    -emotional
    -like a hillary cultist'

    There's so few new creative dogwhistles, you know? Kind of disappointing.

    [ Parent ]

    Fauxgressive Misogyny is so much funnier (none / 0) (#155)
    by Ellie on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 01:23:20 PM EST
    ... than the thunderingly stupid dinosaur kind.

    I don't know where the big shift came:

    Either I'm getting older or the current version's a little more obvious, but some days the conversation's a lot like Cats vs Laser Pointer.

    [ Parent ]

    and here I thought they were 'creative class' (5.00 / 1) (#157)
    by Dr Molly on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 01:30:35 PM EST
    they need more creative code.

    [ Parent ]
    Oh the hateful haters (5.00 / 1) (#164)
    by jondee on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 02:30:26 PM EST
    who are just so full of hate and all things hateful (including hate, or did I say that already?)

    Yeah, it's just something about you that attracts them.

    [ Parent ]

    That was for Ellie (none / 0) (#165)
    by jondee on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 02:34:04 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Been Here For Years (none / 0) (#158)
    by squeaky on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 01:32:01 PM EST
    And hardly angry. I voted for Hillary and lost, no biggie, as I do not see much of a difference with Obama.

    But as for the many refugees who arrived at TL in the last months, they seem really pissed at the treatment they got from Obama cultists. So what did they do, come here and act the same way but for Hillary instead of Obama.

    [ Parent ]

    Good politicians deliver (none / 0) (#156)
    by dianem on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 01:24:13 PM EST
    The fact that we haven't seem a decent politican since Bill Clinton does not mean that politicins are incapable of delivering. They compromise, and fight, but they get the job done.

    And I am angry. I'm angry that the Democratic Party fell for a divisive, deceitful, vicious campaign in favor of an inexperienced but charismatic candidate instead of choosing any one of a number of people who would have been much better Presidents. I'm especially angry that people like you think that it's wrong for me to tell the truth as I see it - and instead of choosing to debate the merits of my argumen choose to attack me personally.

    I don't care if McCain is miles away or not. If my only choice is two toally unacceptable candidates, then I choose neither.

    [ Parent ]

    Nothing Wrong (none / 0) (#160)
    by squeaky on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 01:39:00 PM EST
    With telling the truth as you see it. I just disagree and am letting you know.
    I'm especially angry that people like you think that it's wrong for me to tell the truth as I see it - and instead of choosing to debate the merits of my argumen choose to attack me personally.

    There are no merits to bashing one candidate that is nearly identical to another based on style, imo. I have provided policy speeches, voting records and statements that place Hillary and Obama as mainstream democrats.

    Usually that information is troll rated. So much for content....

    [ Parent ]

    Get over the troll rating idea (none / 0) (#161)
    by dianem on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 01:47:12 PM EST
    You can't troll rate here. There is no system for hiding comments or labelling someone a troll by giving them number ratings. Let go of Daily Kos. This site is moderated.

    As for your evidence - I don't agree that voting for Obama because he's just the same as all of the other candidates (except for his inexperience) is a valid argument. If he were better, that would be a good reason. But he isn't. He has the same policies, in general, but he doesn't even know his own positions, he changes his mind with the tide, and he has misled voter's about his intentions (he says "change", but his policies say "no change"). He as also, tellingly, run a vicious, hateful campaign in the primary, tarring some people who didn't deserve it.

    [ Parent ]

    Rating Is An Issue Here (none / 0) (#166)
    by squeaky on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 02:59:32 PM EST
    Jeralyn has expressly stated that rating ones just because you disagree is not cool. Commenters have been banned for the practice here and all their ratings removed. Before the Hillary supporters flooded TL one ratings were very rare. Now they are a matter of course, mostly be Hillary supporters that hate anyone who says something positive about Obama.

    As for the rest of your comment, you are entitled to your opinion, but you state it as fact, which is hardly the case.

    [ Parent ]

    I apologize to Jeralyn if I misunderstood (none / 0) (#168)
    by dianem on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 03:16:32 PM EST
    Do you have a link to what she said so that I can be sure not to violate site policy in the future? I have been given a number of "1"'s for no obvious reason than that somebody disagreed with me.  I don't take it personally. They have a right to their opinion, just as I do. I have also given out 1's on occasion simply to reflect that I have read a comment and do not agree with it, but do not feel it would be beneficial to continue the discussion. Regardless, there is no "troll rating" here. That is a Daily Kos concept, and the site moderator's take care of trolls here in a different way.

    [ Parent ]
    I Am Not Familiar (none / 0) (#173)
    by squeaky on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 04:25:19 PM EST
    With the system at dkos. Rating ones here is considered troll rating although it is the rater that is usually the troll. I do not have a link for you but if you are unclear and think that handing out ones is fine just because you disagree with a commenter, check it out with TL by email.

    If I am mistaken, I apologize for my misunderstanding TL policy, in advance.

    [ Parent ]

    I didn't know this was (5.00 / 3) (#110)
    by rennies on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 12:02:44 PM EST
    a "get behind the party andvote Obama site. I for one will never vote for Obama. And I view this blog as a place where I can express my views about my opposition to Obama. But I will not vote for McCain. I will be voting for Cynthia McKinney of the Green Party if some miracle does not