2. He will give strong consideration to whether he might benefit more from choosing someone who is
more conservative than he is with strong national security credentials, to help insulate him from some of McCain's attacks. Who might fit this bill? From his vantage point, Sam Nunn, Chuck Hagel, Wes Clark or Joe Biden, but not Hillary.
3. He has concerns about being overshadowed by Hillary and Bill and maintaining control over his own Administration, if elected.
Now, if he doesn't choose Hillary, how will he sell it to her supporters?
Will her supporters agree it is not out of disrespect for her or her supporters and accept that he is just making a cold political calculation that choosing someone else is the best way to win and govern afterwards?
Now, assuming he doesn't choose Hillary, and I am pretty confident he won't, how will his campaign try to sell it? They will ask her supporters to ask themselves:
- Will the goals that Hillary so eloquently and vigorously supports be better advanced with Barack Obama or John McCain in the White House?
- Who will better achieve national health care?
- Who will better protect women's rights?
- Who will be a champion for labor and who for capital?
- Who will protect the environment and who will despoil it?
- Who will be beholden to the radical right?
What's missing from these questions?
- Does he have the necessary experience to lead?
- Is there substance behind his message of hope and change? Will people get so tired of those words they start to roll their eyes when they hear it?
- Will concerns about his past associations and questions about his judgment grow as the race progresses?
- Can he win the swing states like Ohio, PA and Florida?
- Can he win older voters, women voters, rural voters and Hispanic/Latino voters? Can he beat McCain without them?
Now, for some of my views:
- The worst thing he could do is put another woman on the ticket. That will appear to her supporters as the most traiterous act yet.
- Second worst: Pick a conservative. What's the difference between that and McCain?
- Third worst thing: Don't try and sell that his not choosing Hillary is not a diss. It is and Hillary supporters are not stupid.
What's his way out of this mess?
He needs to work like crazy to have Hillary say she doesn't want to be on the ticket so she can make the case on the other issues to her supporters.
If her supporters believe she wants to be on the ticket and he declines to offer her the spot, his reasons won't matter. A diss is a diss and this would be too big a diss for them to get past.
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