Gallup Tracker: Obama By 6

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 03:38:34 PM EST
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The daily movements in a tracking poll are pretty meaningless but since a whole new group of McCain fans have shown up, I write this post for them. Gallup sez Obama by 6:

These results are based on July 18-20 polling, including two days since Obama began his much publicized overseas trip to visit the Middle East, Afghanistan, and Europe. It is unclear at this point whether the trip will boost Obama's poll standing, but his performance in Sunday interviewing was one of his stronger in Gallup Poll Daily tracking, and his current six percentage point lead is among the largest he has held over McCain to date. Tuesday's Gallup Poll Daily tracking report will be the first in which all interviews were conducted since Obama began his trip abroad.

By Big Tent Democrat

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Gallup Tracker: Obama By 6 | 139 comments (139 topical)

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Too Early (5.00 / 1) (#1)
by tek on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 03:43:02 PM EST

to pay attention to polls. They aren't even nominated yet.

I thought we didnt like (5.00 / 2) (#2)
by Capt Howdy on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 03:44:16 PM EST

Gallup

I do not like any trackers really (5.00 / 1) (#4)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 03:49:04 PM EST

Or any polls for that matter.

But I have gotten sick and tired of having the Ras poll thrown at me by McCain supporters at this blog.

Parent

one thing I have noticed (5.00 / 1) (#12)
by Capt Howdy on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:02:12 PM EST

is that the "hate e-mail" thing, having died down for a while is now picking up very briskly again.
I am getting 10 or more a day of the really looney ones and a half dozen more or so with quotes like the ones about how we all need to learn French and Spanish (in other words - semi legitimate but silly).

Parent

Who sends you hate e-mails? (none / 0) (#13)
by Militarytracy on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:04:08 PM EST

Obama supporters?

Parent

I have a couple of elected (none / 0) (#15)
by Capt Howdy on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:07:24 PM EST

democrats in my family from Arkansas. local stuff but I am on some arkansas dem mailing lists.
they hate him, needless to say. these are mostly old school democrats for whom Bill and Hillary are sacred cows.

Parent

A lot of Democrats in Alabama hate him (none / 0) (#26)
by Militarytracy on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:15:22 PM EST

too. I know what my beefs with Obama are, but that doesn't seem to be the case with all of those who question Obama in Alabama who would rather vote for Clinton.

Parent

My nephew (none / 0) (#46)
by Ga6thDem on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:39:34 PM EST

in the military says that everyone in the military hates him too except for AA's in the service. Do you see this too? Or is it just his bias?

Parent

I hear the same thing (none / 0) (#49)
by Capt Howdy on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:42:31 PM EST

a lot. many of the people I get this mail I was talking about from have children or relatives in the active military.

Parent

Please refrain from.... (5.00 / 3) (#97)
by DYBO on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 06:32:18 PM EST

.....anecdotal irrelevance for Obama-bashing.

I know a lot of people in the military, and they are looking forward to a radical change of leadership - away from any of the idiots that thought Iraq was a good idea.

Parent

: So YOUR (none / 0) (#132)
by tree on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 09:53:27 AM EST

"anecdotal irrelevance" is acceptable, but others' aren't. Nice double standard there.

Parent

It's not (none / 0) (#56)
by Ga6thDem on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:47:40 PM EST

racial. It's Ayers. At least that's what he says.

Parent

Get serious (5.00 / 1) (#96)
by DYBO on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 06:29:05 PM EST

It's Ayers. At least that's what he says.

If you asked a hundred random people in the military what they thought about William Ayers, how many do you think would have the slightest knowledge of who he is?

Parent

: Really (5.00 / 1) (#120)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 05:22:54 AM EST

you don't realize how much this stuff is getting around do you? Military personnel can get email can't they?

Parent

I was speaking of the civilians (none / 0) (#133)
by Militarytracy on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 09:54:34 AM EST

here, not military. I don't live on Post and have become active in the community since we will probably retire here. I always talk politics too and have befriended some local Democrats and plan to help out as the elections get closer.

Parent

I think his touring of the war zone can (none / 0) (#129)
by Militarytracy on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 09:02:18 AM EST

help this, but he has to keep the press coverage light. The soldiers are sick of being used as a political backdrop. Bush sqeezed them dry. Obama so far has not seemed to care about the troops as people and most soldiers seem far from happy with him. If Obama is going to lead with mostly talk they will never like him, if he acts though decisively instead of just talking they'll get over it. At this time though, what I have heard is that he is not well thought of.

Parent

I agree but I will say one thing (none / 0) (#47)
by Capt Howdy on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:41:19 PM EST

I dont think it is racial. or at least MOSTLY racial. I think its much more complicated but it will probably be dismissed as racism.

Parent

I personally know military people... (5.00 / 0) (#86)
by Thanin on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 05:36:27 PM EST

who say they wont vote for him because hes black. Sorry but there are racists everywhere, and a lot of them vote.

Parent

: No soldier that I have ever heard (none / 0) (#130)
by Militarytracy on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 09:08:26 AM EST

has said anything like that. It doesn't make any sense to not vote for Obama because he is black when most soldiers hero worship Colin Powell along with their own personal lists of black leaders they have in their military pasts that they loved and respected. The first time my husband went to Iraq the Master Sgt was black. He was killed during his second tour and I saw soldiers openly weeping, the man was positively loved. The military is the least racist environment I have ever been in if you don't count some of the racism the Bush administration spawned by making all Arabs our automatic enemies.

Parent

Actually (5.00 / 1) (#45)
by Ga6thDem on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:38:00 PM EST

I think there all garbage until after Labor day imo.

This poll shows me that it's anyone's game right now.

Parent

: Absolutely (5.00 / 1) (#75)
by cmugirl on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 05:08:56 PM EST

No one outside of the blog world and die hards are paying attention right now. You could take these same polls with the same respondents and day to day you would get different results.

Parent

I would not be surprised (5.00 / 1) (#109)
by cawaltz on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 09:04:58 PM EST

if the people you call McCain supporters aren't McCain supporters at all. Instead I'd argue they are individuals who have been less than impressed with the performance of the DNC and the presumptive nominee and are itching to say "I told you so."

Personally, I'm not a McCain OR Obama fan. I dislike them both for a myriad of reasons and I think they are both disasters waiting to happen.

Parent

Not every (5.00 / 2) (#116)
by Jeralyn on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 11:46:58 PM EST

commenter here who doesn't support Obama is a McCain supporter. I've received e-mails from several objecting to the characterization. Let's not paint with too broad a brush.

Parent

Who is a McCain supporter here? (none / 0) (#5)
by Militarytracy on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 03:50:12 PM EST

Parent

You are (1.00 / 2) (#16)
by MKS on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:08:07 PM EST

Parent

Really? (5.00 / 5) (#23)
by Militarytracy on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:11:55 PM EST

I never knew. Must I drink kool-aid now in order to blog here too? You must be an Obama supporter.

Parent

Good grief (5.00 / 1) (#31)
by Dr Molly on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:20:23 PM EST

The testosterone around this place has become toxic.

Parent

Good grief (5.00 / 1) (#38)
by MKS on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:30:21 PM EST

This is not a gender issue.

Parent

Take it easy (none / 0) (#39)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:32:00 PM EST

Don't fight with potential allies.

Parent

I'll take it easy (5.00 / 3) (#43)
by Dr Molly on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:36:40 PM EST

when MKS and others stop ganging up on people like militarytracy and pulling accusations about McCain support and namecalling out of their @sses.

Ban me if you like, but this kind of stuff is making this place feel more and more like DK lately.

And, yes, MKS, I DO think testosterone is involved with the problem.

Parent

We Should Prick Our Allies Wisely (5.00 / 0) (#51)
by flashman on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:43:57 PM EST

Ooops, I mean "Pick" Heh!

Parent

My comment was to MKS (none / 0) (#48)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:41:42 PM EST

No good deed goes unpunished . . .

Parent

: Oh.... well..... how embarrassing.... (none / 0) (#52)
by Dr Molly on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:43:59 PM EST

When I clicked on 'parent' before it looked like your comment was to me. So sorry.
Just pretend I didn't say all that:) Or send it to MKS instead.

Parent

Ally, Not Potential Ally (none / 0) (#76)
by squeaky on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 05:09:24 PM EST

Dr Molly, is voting for Obama, even if she does not the guy his platform is waaaaay better than McSame.

But you are right. No need to alienate reasonable people.

Parent

If the testosterone were higher (none / 0) (#117)
by Grace on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 12:47:29 AM EST

perhaps Obama might have won us over -- but a lot of us sense NO TESTOSTERONE coming from Obama -- and that's a problem since he is running as a man.

Hillary appeared to have more testosterone than Obama has. She also appeared to have more calcium since her backbone appeared to be stronger.

Parent

: Well Thats Explains (none / 0) (#135)
by squeaky on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 01:16:50 PM EST

A lot about you. You must love warmongers. Are you also for pumping up with steriods? Cowboy Bush must make you wet your pants.. Not to mention Darth Cheney. Must have made you crazy in love when he flipped the bird at Leahy.
Perhaps you can get a national referendum going to mandate testosterone shots for POTUS and down the line.
Hillary might look good in a beard shouting f*ck all muslims, bring em on. Given that maybe we could institute sports events for senators Gladiator style (after the manly shots).

Parent

Ya know... (5.00 / 1) (#72)
by pie on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 05:05:54 PM EST

Obama is the one who has to win us over. If I were you, I'd be very careful about adding any fuel to an already hot situation.

Parent

I dunno (none / 0) (#6)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 03:51:36 PM EST

Who?

Parent

Thou shalt not inquire for whom (5.00 / 1) (#7)
by oculus on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 03:53:19 PM EST

others will vote.

But, one commenter did self-identify yesterday.

Parent

well (5.00 / 3) (#8)
by Capt Howdy on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 03:54:54 PM EST

not a McCain supporter. having said that, not an Obama supporter either.
I have said, proudly, that if he picks Nunn I will vote for McCain. I cant think of another DINO offhand who would cause result that but he might find one.

Parent

picking Nunn (none / 0) (#10)
by Capt Howdy on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 03:58:49 PM EST

which btw I find increasingly likely. at this point I would almost bet it will be him or Hillary.
(almost but not quite)

Parent

Hopefully Biden (none / 0) (#22)
by MKS on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:11:47 PM EST

Biden would have more bite rhetorically....

But it could be Sebelius or Bayh....

Parent

Biden would have more bite (none / 0) (#34)
by Capt Howdy on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:26:08 PM EST

he would.
which is why I think Nunn. as someone said before job one for the VP is to be background for Obama. Biden had a famous mouth problem. not really a low profile guy. maybe Bayh.

Parent

Why Not Feingold? (none / 0) (#41)
by flashman on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:34:57 PM EST

I know, I know... too liberal. But IMO, that's just what the doctor should perscribe.

Parent

: Yes, in the best (none / 0) (#123)
by weltec2 on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 07:07:19 AM EST

of all possible worlds without Hillary...
Feingold or Kucinich. But this will never happen EITHER.

Parent

Only Biden (none / 0) (#60)
by pie on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:49:59 PM EST

would give the ticket any gravitas. I doubt he'll get picked. He's got his own issues.

The other two would sink the ship, afaic.

Parent

Obama likes Biden (none / 0) (#80)
by MKS on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 05:17:53 PM EST

Biden can toss out a gaffe--but when he talked about Obama being articulate and clean, Obama came to his defense during a debate and said he knew what was in Biden's "heart." Biden looked visibly moved and relieved.

But the Prince of Darkness says the GOP will announce their VP this week to stop Obama's good press. If true, Obama would have the advantage in making the GOP pick first out of panic.

Parent

I read they are likely to do it (none / 0) (#84)
by Capt Howdy on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 05:31:57 PM EST

the day after the stadium speech.

Parent

Supposedly a change of plans (5.00 / 1) (#85)
by MKS on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 05:35:07 PM EST

--too many things going Obama's way on his trip.

Parent

interesting (none / 0) (#88)
by Capt Howdy on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 05:43:57 PM EST

Parent

: Probably b.s. (none / 0) (#89)
by MKS on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 05:44:34 PM EST

Parent

Only Biden? (none / 0) (#113)
by A DC Wonk on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 10:40:27 PM EST

What about Dodd?

Parent

I'm a Hillary supporter (5.00 / 2) (#9)
by Militarytracy on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 03:57:23 PM EST

I'm for HOPE.

Parent

I'm a Hillary supporter. (5.00 / 1) (#69)
by pie on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 05:00:48 PM EST

When Obama becomes one, I'm in.

Parent

Hillary Supporter Here Too....I'm with (none / 0) (#79)
by PssttCmere08 on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 05:16:09 PM EST

you Pie. Would love to see the DNC become Hillary
supporters.

Parent

Hillary supporter too (5.00 / 0) (#114)
by MichaelGale on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 10:55:49 PM EST

Let's crash the convention!

Parent

Wouldn't that be lovely...let's go! (none / 0) (#115)
by PssttCmere08 on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 11:43:48 PM EST

Parent

Another Hillary supporter in Tokyo... (none / 0) (#124)
by weltec2 on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 07:11:05 AM EST

When do we mobilize. Let me know. I'll have to buy my ticket a little in advance.

Parent

: lol....get ready....pack your PUMA bags (none / 0) (#137)
by PssttCmere08 on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 01:55:07 PM EST

Parent

Whoever (5.00 / 1) (#14)
by TheJoker on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:04:17 PM EST

calls themselves a "progressive" and can't name 10 good things about the Dem nominee while crediting/defending McBush on any number of things. For true progressives in this election, there are multiple options besides Obama, and McCain sure as s**t ain't one of em.

Parent

Oh I disagree with that (5.00 / 3) (#35)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:28:07 PM EST

You do not have to name 10 good things about Obama to realize McCain stinks.

Parent

Criminy. (5.00 / 3) (#63)
by pie on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:51:46 PM EST

I can't name ten good things about Obama.

Maybe one:

he talks good. :)

However, I rarely like what he says, so does that still count?

Parent

: No. (none / 0) (#83)
by Thanin on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 05:30:44 PM EST

Parent
: Agreed... (none / 0) (#125)
by weltec2 on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 07:15:31 AM EST

No content but a good speaking voice. James Earl Jones has an even better speaking voice. Neither are presidential material but they have great speaking voices.

Parent

Hahahahahahaha (none / 0) (#37)
by TheJoker on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:30:04 PM EST

Point taken! :D

Parent

What precisely is a TRUE PROGRESSIVE? (5.00 / 2) (#106)
by MO Blue on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 08:01:25 PM EST

So far I've seen so called TRUE PROGRESSIVES more than willing to sacrifice any and all American and progressive values in support of Obama.

Based on the actions of many of the self-identified TRUE PROGRESSIVES this election cycle, I consider it a badge of honor when someone accuses me of not being a "true progressive." I just happen to think that there are some things that never should be used as a political bargaining chip to win elections and will not willing relinquish Constitutional rights (an American value) on the alter of political gain for any candidate.

Do I consider McCain an acceptable option for president? No. Do I consider Obama an acceptable option for president? No. I do, however, agree that there are other options.

Parent

you are right about multiple choices (4.00 / 1) (#19)
by Capt Howdy on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:10:21 PM EST

however. picking Nunn would, as far as I am concerned, be a very personal slap at everything I want the party to be and would require a very personal response. so this is one progessive who will be pulling the lever for McCain if Obama picks Sam Nunn for VP.

Parent

: That's a position based more out (5.00 / 0) (#27)
by TheJoker on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:17:04 PM EST

of principle rather than blind hate since Nunn is a right-wing hack. I can respect that. I don't like it, but i can respect that.

Parent
: Capt Howdy, I enjoy many of your posts (none / 0) (#126)
by weltec2 on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 07:29:52 AM EST

and I understand your feelings about Sam but nothing on God's green earth would make me vote for McCain. I'd just as soon not vote which I may well not do. ...but another four years of Bush's tax cuts to the wealthy? Do you think the poor can take that? and what about SCOTUS? Would you want to see justices appointed by McCain? Good heavens man, do we need another Scalia on the bench? Think of what you're saying. I could go on but you already know all this. No... no, if I do not vote out of moral conviction, Obama will be elected anyway. But I will NOT aid a McCain presidency.

Parent

Evidently anyone who cites (5.00 / 2) (#50)
by Valhalla on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:43:30 PM EST

Rasmussen's numbers, as they are less favorable to Obama.

Parent

I'll Bravely Stand Up (3.50 / 2) (#54)
by Petey on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:45:57 PM EST

"Who? "

I'm a lefty who thinks it's an open (and interesting) question whether or not the left would be better off with a McCain victory.

For: McCain would get nothing legislatively done with a Democratic Congress.

For: A McCain victory would help Dems in 2010 while an Obama victory would hurt Dems in 2010.

For: Obama would accomplish nothing of value legislatively.

For: I think Obama is going to be a political disaster as President and will enable future Republican gains.

Against: The Supreme Court.

Against: Electing a black guy and helping to normalize race in America would be a good thing.

Discuss.

Parent

Well (5.00 / 2) (#62)
by Ga6thDem on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:50:27 PM EST

I look at this election like 1976 and Obama as another Carter. And inept inexperienced candidate who probably won't accomplish much.

And as far as "racial healing" well, the way Obama conducted himself during the primary shot that one out of the window. He's already been preemptively race baiting. I think he's much more damaging to AA's than helpful.

Parent

as far as "race relations" (5.00 / 3) (#66)
by Capt Howdy on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:54:44 PM EST

he has already set them back a decade by trashing the Clintons. the blue collar heros who where actually reaching out based on race.

Parent

Symbolic Importance and Policy Capitulation (5.00 / 1) (#81)
by Petey on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 05:27:04 PM EST

"I look at this election like 1976 and Obama as another Carter."

This part of your comment I agree with completely.

Obama brings the exact same mix of symbolic importance and policy capitulation that Carter brought.

He freezes left opposition to his policy capitulation with his symbolism. It has many similarities to what JFK did in '60 as well.

I'm not a fan of that brand of politics.

Parent

: That (5.00 / 1) (#93)
by Ga6thDem on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 06:16:01 PM EST

brand of politics has mostly brought the party nothing but losses. I see nothing happening that will change that dynamic.

Parent

I Can't Go That Far (none / 0) (#67)
by Petey on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:56:15 PM EST

"I think he's much more damaging to AA's than helpful."

Disagree there.

I think the best case for an Obama vote (other than the Court) is affirmative action. I think electing Obama actually will help AA's.

The problem is that I think electing Obama will hurt the rest of the Democratic coalition.

It's an interesting dilemma.

Parent

I think helpfull or damaging (5.00 / 3) (#71)
by Capt Howdy on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 05:02:44 PM EST

sort of remains to be seen. of course it would be wonderful for every AA boy and girl to see a president who looks like them. having said that, seeing a nominee who looks like them doesnt suck either.
one thing I do think is that if Obama blows it, it will be a long while before there is another AA nominee. the same would have been true for Hillary.
maybe even more so.
but I think the fallout from this campaign could be very damaging to race relations before its over.

Parent

I agree with your post and especially the last (5.00 / 0) (#78)
by Angel on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 05:15:49 PM EST

sentence. Way back in March during my primary caucus I sat next to an AA guy. Before we even started the meeting he was talking about how people would riot if the "election was stole" from Obama. This was in March! If that's how he felt then try to imagine how he might feel today and again in November if McCain wins. Kind of scary to think about.

Parent

Are you really implying (none / 0) (#136)
by IndiDemGirl on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 01:19:19 PM EST

that blacks will riot if Obama does not win? This is just so offensive I can't believe it was not erased.

Parent

: Reporting the facts about a conversation that (none / 0) (#141)
by Angel on Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 09:25:51 AM EST

took place. His words, not mine.

Parent

Well (3.00 / 2) (#92)
by Ga6thDem on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 06:13:13 PM EST

considering the fact that the GOP has literally spent years telling blue collar workers that affirmative action is a way for unqualified AA's to get employment I think that Obama could probably strengthen their case for getting rid of affirmative action.

Parent

To Argue the Case For Obama... (none / 0) (#95)
by Petey on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 06:20:31 PM EST

"considering the fact that the GOP has literally spent years telling blue collar workers that affirmative action is a way for unqualified AA's to get employment I think that Obama could probably strengthen their case for getting rid of affirmative action."

Heh.

We're nearing the end of affirmative action in any case. Why not take it to its logical extreme before it goes away?

Parent

: It That The Latest GOP (none / 0) (#138)
by squeaky on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 05:32:06 PM EST

Limbaugh talking point, actually it seems more COulterish.
Anyway it is a vile comment. You should be automatically banned for overt racism, imo.

Parent

I would add (5.00 / 1) (#64)
by Capt Howdy on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:53:27 PM EST

that divided government, as a concept, is not a bad one.
particularly if we, as predicted, have a veto proof majority in the senate.

Parent

: Divided government (5.00 / 1) (#94)
by RalphB on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 06:18:21 PM EST

is probably going to be my own preference this cycle. 'Veto proof majority'? Who's predicting that Democrats wind up with 67 seats in the Senate?
Even if they did, the House wouldn't be veto proof.

Parent

And PPP shows him even further ahead in OH (5.00 / 3) (#3)
by andgarden on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 03:44:59 PM EST

That's as good a proxy for the GE as I can think of.

Dukakis was farther ahead (2.50 / 2) (#17)
by BernieO on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:08:09 PM EST

at this stage as was Kerry. It is astounding that the Democrat's candidate is not up in the mid teens if not 20+ points ahead given how unpopular Bush and the Republicans are. This is a sign of just how weak Obama really is.

Parent

Most 2004 polling had Bush ahead in OH (5.00 / 1) (#20)
by andgarden on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:10:27 PM EST

McCain has not been ahead in a poll there in some time.

Parent

I agree (5.00 / 1) (#70)
by Melchizedek on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 05:02:32 PM EST

Hillary would be up 35 at this point. Plus, she had a lot lower name recognition than Obama did.

Parent

: You are (none / 0) (#101)
by Valhalla on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 07:02:20 PM EST

mocking my girl, but that was funny.

Parent

Not really (none / 0) (#28)
by MKS on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:17:21 PM EST

I have repeatedly posted here the weekly tracking from Rasmussen in 2004. Kerry never had a lead of more than 2-3 points, and Bush usually led. Rasmussen was/is a Republican pollster, but I think he was bailed out in 2004 by a large Rebublican turnout.

The race in 2004 was remarkably stable....

The era of the big bounce is over. Too much information, the internet, 24 hour cable news....

And the Newsweek polls--you mean the ones that can't decide how many Republicans there are?

Parent

Yeah (none / 0) (#42)
by Ga6thDem on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:36:07 PM EST

but PPP polls are pretty much garbage. He might be ahead but I'd think there's better polls but I wouldn't tout their polls.

Parent

I have a confession to make (5.00 / 3) (#21)
by CST on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:11:07 PM EST

I am a McCain supporter :)

I will support him all the way to the exit.

Not sure McCain fans are here (5.00 / 0) (#25)
by Rashomon66 on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:13:35 PM EST

What's worse: What you don't know about Obama or what you do know about McCain?

: McCain is worse. Wow, (none / 0) (#33)
by TheJoker on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:23:47 PM EST

you didn't have to make the question so easy!!! LOL We should focus instead on BO's flaws and how to make him more closely in line with us once he's POTUS.

Parent

Like BTD said some time back: (5.00 / 0) (#29)
by Jim J on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:18:47 PM EST

It's about a five-point Obama lead nationally from here on out.

But notice that Obama has been picking up steam in Electoral College battlegrounds, which is all that really matters.

As we see from the latest back-and-forth, McCain's obvious strategy is to try and draw Obama into angry exchanges, which work to McCain's advantage. As long as Obama continues to resist taking the bait, he will defeat McCain easily.

We like Gallup today (5.00 / 1) (#57)
by Valhalla on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:48:00 PM EST

because it shows a 6 point lead. Since the middle of June, Gallup has been mostly swinging 0-4 pts.

I'm sure there is a 5-pt poll somewhere every day to choose from. Not the same as a 5-pt lead nationally.

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: Rasmussen is 1 one point the last two days (none / 0) (#121)
by andrys on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 06:20:03 AM EST

That's for 'general election' preference.
The electoral college polling will count most, but watchers should bear in mind that during the primaries, Obama could be up by 8 and lose by 30. The numbers for him in those polls tended to be on the optimistic side after March 2 or so.
To win, he'll need a very large lead, but he is very lucky that the hapless McCain is the Republican nominee. McCain sounds worse by the day - makes no sense and knows very little but likes to say, "I know how to win wars."
Scary. So, Obama has a shot :-)

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Perhaps Obama should stay out of the (none / 0) (#32)
by oculus on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:20:40 PM EST

U.S. until the election. Great press, great photos. Makes McCain look like a cipher.

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: You mean like (none / 0) (#40)
by MKS on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:32:50 PM EST

this?

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Obama should be doing better than this (5.00 / 2) (#30)
by stefystef on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:19:38 PM EST

with the economy in this condition and McCain messing up all over the place.

I know Obama followers are happy with this, but I think Obama should be doing better considering all the hype and promotion behind him.

I agree but I (5.00 / 1) (#36)
by TheJoker on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:28:13 PM EST

really think the polls are tight because America is paying more attention than normal this year. Remember, Hillary set a record for most votes at roughly 18 mil in a FREAKING PRIMARY. The spotlight is way hotter this time than in the past.

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but (none / 0) (#44)
by Capt Howdy on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:37:38 PM EST

she is right about McCain being the worst candidate since Kerry.

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Honestly (5.00 / 3) (#53)
by Ga6thDem on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:45:38 PM EST

McCain is terrible and Obama is just as bad as Kerry imo. It's like he's channeling Kerry with his "I'm so disapointed responses." Ugh.

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Maybe you are right. (5.00 / 1) (#55)
by TheJoker on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:46:36 PM EST

My gal Hill would have been up at least 10 points at this juncture. O should be up more. Could be that millions of people are waiting on his VP pick next month and are reserving judgement.

Parent

she actually is up 10 (5.00 / 1) (#59)
by Capt Howdy on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:49:35 PM EST

based on polling I saw last week that had McCain and Obama tied.

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Last week Rasmussen polled Clinton vs McCain (5.00 / 1) (#122)
by andrys on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 06:22:13 AM EST

Why, I don't know. He's not been keen on including her in polls since before the primaries finished.

But he did, and found that while McCain and Obama were very close, Clinton was ahead of McCain by about 9.

And that's when she's not running. Not speaking. Just a senator that many have come to know, for all the faults.

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: interesting (none / 0) (#127)
by ccpup on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 07:39:02 AM EST

If Rass is including a Hillary v. McCain match-up in even one recent poll, then you can be rest assured that there are more than a few Supers who are nervous about Barack and curious to see how Hillary does against McCain.
I suspect that they, like those early Primary voters, are experiencing acute Buyer's Remorse.

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Wait, did (none / 0) (#58)
by Valhalla on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:49:13 PM EST

Hillary say worst since Kerry?

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no no (none / 0) (#61)
by Capt Howdy on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:50:17 PM EST

I was refering to stefstefs comment about McCain being a terrible candidate.

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: Whew! (5.00 / 1) (#65)
by Valhalla on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:54:25 PM EST

I didn't know whether the laugh 'cuz that's kinda funny of her or be shocked she'd let that out in public.

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As you said, BTD (5.00 / 1) (#68)
by flyerhawk on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:58:03 PM EST

Polls are generally useless.

I believe that things will only get worse for McCain.

I firmly believe that the Republican leadership knew this was going to be an ugly year for the GOP. So rather than waste a viable candidate they threw out a candidate is a poor campaigner but untied to the Conservative message in any meaningful way.

IMO, he is going to be badly beaten in the debates. He is too emotional and simply will not be able to stand up to a one on one debate.

I also suspect that his acceptance speech will make him seem hollow compare to the likely rousing speech Obama gives.

I will say what I have been saying for sometime. Obama will win by 7-10 points and with 325 electors.

I beg to differ. (4.00 / 2) (#82)
by Salo on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 05:30:11 PM EST

He's actually quite handy in a debate. he handed Romney and Huckerbee their heads time and again.

Not that it will make a scrap of difference to the outcome.

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Nonsense (5.00 / 1) (#87)
by andgarden on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 05:38:20 PM EST

McCain was terrible in the Republican debates. Romney won all that I watched.

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Romney was always flustered... (5.00 / 1) (#90)
by Salo on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 05:51:51 PM EST

...and McCain continually got under the poor bugger's skin. Put it another way. Who won in that contest according to the GOP voters?

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: In Missouri, at least (none / 0) (#105)
by nr22 on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 07:58:45 PM EST

McCain didn't so much win as the two-headed social conservative movement defeated itself. I watched those results with great amusement - it couldn't have happened to a nicer bunch of wingnuts.

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I didn't see that (none / 0) (#91)
by flyerhawk on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 06:12:52 PM EST

I saw him needlessly bicker with Romney. Granted Romney was dumb enough to bicker back but he was hardly dominant.

McCain can occasionally throw out a quick joke but he gets easily flustered. In the GOP debates he wasn't challenged very often because they all generally agreed.

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I have a close friend who (5.00 / 7) (#74)
by kenosharick on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 05:06:45 PM EST

gets very excited and starts yelling, "WE WON! WE WON!" when the Packers score a fieldgoal in the 1st quarter. All this talk of polls makes me think of him.

Why isn't Obama up by more? (5.00 / 3) (#77)
by Green26 on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 05:11:08 PM EST

I agree it will be tough for McCain to win.

However, given the unpopularity of Bush, the poor economy, high gas prices, the Iraqi war, the popularity of Obama, McCain's inablity to get continuous traction, the declining number of declared Republicans (I think this is true), etc., why isn't Obama up by more?

The polls I've noticed have generally ranged from 8 to 3, with a number of the recent ones at the lower end. I would have thought he would have been up by more at this point.

Knee-jerk poll responses (none / 0) (#99)
by DYBO on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 06:38:39 PM EST

There are a significant number of people that are unenthused about McCain, but will respond tol a poll by party line or ideology. Their intensity is much lower than people that respond for Obama. The comparitive intensity is about 68 to 39 in favor of Obama. The lower the intensity, the lower the turnout on election day.

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Not necessarily (5.00 / 2) (#102)
by Valhalla on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 07:24:00 PM EST

lower favorability doesn't nec equal lower turnout, at least not in the sort of straight line you are suggesting.

Some demographic groups have relatively high turnout regardless of anything but the most extreme favorability ratings, because a certain percentage of them vote no matter what. Other groups have much more volatile participation numbers. More stable groups tend to be older people, people with families, etc. Which a lot of Republicans are.

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: Did I say anything about "favorability? (none / 0) (#119)
by DYBO on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 01:58:31 AM EST

No. Read again.

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I couldn't be less (5.00 / 1) (#103)
by pie on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 07:32:57 PM EST

enthused about Obama.

My husband is now in the same boat.

Those that are paying attention are not impressed.

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I didn't realize (5.00 / 5) (#104)
by andrewwm on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 07:49:30 PM EST

data was the plural of anecdote. Reminds me of the famous "I don't understand how he got elected, none of my friends voted for him."

Whether or not there is a sizable minority of Democrats that are unenthused about Obama is debatable. Whether or not Obama has a massive lead in enthusiasm vis-a-vis McCain from their respective core constituencies is undeniable.

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That's brilliant. . . (5.00 / 0) (#107)
by LarryInNYC on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 08:18:58 PM EST

I didn't realize data was the plural of anecdote.

Mind if I steal it?

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: Its been a common saying for a while (5.00 / 2) (#112)
by tree on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 09:43:54 PM EST

Interestingly, it actually originated from its opposite, "The plural of anecdote IS data." quoted by Professor Raymond Wolfinger in 1969 or 70. Here's the story behind the original quote:

I e-mailed Wolfinger last year and
got the following response from him:
"I said 'The plural of anecdote is data' some time in the 1969-70 academic
year while teaching a graduate seminar at Stanford. The occasion was a
student's dismissal of a simple factual statement--by another student or
me--as a mere anecdote. The quotation was my rejoinder.
Since then I have missed few opportunities to quote myself. The only
appearance in print that I can remember is Nelson Polsby's accurate
quotation and attribution in an article in PS: Political Science and
Politics in 1993; I believe it was in the first issue of the year."
I also e-mailed Polsby, who didn't know of any early printed occurrences.
What is interesting about this saying is that it seems to have morphed
into its opposite -- "Data is not the plural of anecdote" -- in some
people's minds. Mark Mandel used it in this opposite sense in a private
e-mail to me, for example.
Fred Shapiro
This asserted original is actually far more in line with the scientific method, wherein hypotheses are formed on the basis of observed data.

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Irrelevant (none / 0) (#118)
by DYBO on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 01:57:29 AM EST

Obama's intensity ratings are almost twice that of McCain - regardless of your opinion.

If that holds true, it indicates Obama will get that many more voters out - regardless of poll numbers.

Please don't use my comments as an opening to post irrelevant, gratuitous Obama-bashing

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I've never seen a poll (none / 0) (#131)
by tree on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 09:49:39 AM EST

with "intensity" ratings for anyone or about anything. Do tell us more, or provide a link.

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Common knowledge (none / 0) (#134)
by DYBO on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 12:55:34 PM EST

Go google.

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No such thing (none / 0) (#139)
by tree on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 05:40:10 PM EST

as intensity rating polls on teh Google. Nice try at a dodge though.

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: Wrong (none / 0) (#140)
by DYBO on Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 11:59:39 AM EST

Almost every such poll has an intensity factor that rates respondents as - for example - strong, weak, or moderate in their support of a candidate or issue.

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C'mon. 6 points mainly because McCain (5.00 / 2) (#108)
by Prabhata on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 08:37:06 PM EST

dropped to 41 points. Obama is stuck. Ras has the opposite, with very high negatives.

BTD, Can Obama (4.00 / 1) (#110)
by jxstorm on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 09:05:01 PM EST

win if he loses Michigan. I think its unlikely but Granholm is no longer invincible! The state is a economic disaster like Ohio! Also, NJ looks too close? What's going on?

: buyer's remorse (none / 0) (#128)
by ccpup on Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 07:42:04 AM EST

and a sense of Just Who IS This Guy the DNC Foisted on Us?

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Daily Galluping Goodness (none / 0) (#11)
by Katherine Graham Cracker on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:00:07 PM EST

It astonishes me that anyone is voting for a Republican who still supports any Shrubian policy.
I fully expect Bob Barr to come in second, unless the Green Party can get is act together. :)

PPP Ohio Poll (none / 0) (#18)
by jxstorm on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:10:07 PM EST

cannot be trusted! All other polls in Ohio are within the margin of error. I think his strategy is still to attempt to win without Ohio and Florida. But I think he could lose Michigan and Pennsylvania and even New Jersey.

: Well, as BTD used to say, all polls [stink] (none / 0) (#24)
by andgarden on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 04:11:59 PM EST

But really, your comment history here suggests nothing but Obama FUD. I think this post was directed at you.

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: You're absolutely right. (none / 0) (#111)
by prittfumes on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 09:23:45 PM EST

... I think he could lose Michigan and Pennsylvania and even New Jersey.
And that's just for starters.

Parent

Welcome to (none / 0) (#100)
by pie on Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 06:40:25 PM EST

America.

Have a nice stay.

Gallup Tracker: Obama By 6 | 139 comments (139 topical)

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