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Negative Branding: Obama's Lost Opportunity

Having been joined now by a chorus of Obama blogs in concern with Obama's post partisan unity schtick campaign, I am somewhat amused that no one noticed the problem before. TPM has been on it all day but this e-mail Marshall posts got my attention:

Obama needs to own the branding of John McCain, the man. . . . To that end, I think the essence of Obama's campaign needs to be "John McCain will do anything to get elected."

Obama has experience in that message no doubt ("Hillary will say or do anything to get elected") but it won't work on McCain because the Media will not play along. The problem is Obama has never gone after Republicans and specifically tied them to Bush (he of the 25% approval rating.) People are making this more complicated than it is. All you have to send as a message is not MCCain - flip flopper or anything like that, you say McCain - Bush's third term. Period, That is the negative branding that should be driven home every single day. That should be Obama's message every single day. But Dems don't do negative branding, they just get branded. I wrote about this when I was ripping into Lakoff back in 2006:

I tell you what is missing -- negative branding of Conservatives and Republicans. For example, I would say:

The Rubberstamp Republicans serve the interests of corporations and the rich. They rubberstamp Bush's disastrous Iraq policies and pass special interest legislation like cutting the Paris Hilton tax, tax loopholes for Big Oil and block competition for Big Pharma. Unlike conservative Republicans, who have raised Congressional salaries while blocking a hike in the minimum wage, Democrats have fought for raising the minimum wage and fought for affordable health are in the face of stiff Republican opposition in service to big insurance companies.

And so on. Tailor the message to the audience. Talk about the environment, or the war, or unions, or stem cell or whatever issue works best. The point is contrast. Define yourself positively by contrasting with and defining Republicans negatively. Lakoff recognizes that the Republicans did it, but for some reason Democrats must eschew it. I really do not understand why.

Obama has wasted two months on this. As Steve Soto wrote today:

I have been saying for weeks that this campaign is not hitting back, is not running a Tier Two and Truth Squad effort, and is letting McCain define himself as anything but a Republican all while smearing and defining Obama as a treasonous black man. Obama supporters around here are rightfully defending and sticking by their man, using any number of reasons, which is to their credit. Yet they fail to confront the reality that this campaign has lost already even before the convention. Again, it isn't that hard to do: you unleash the Tier Two and Truth Squad effort in June and July to define McCain, defang his arguments before he makes them, so that when he spews his drivel his lines fall flat and are viewed as the flailings of a GOP senator who wants you to look away from his own failings. All while you talk about change and why you are a better choice because you are running against Washington, instead of morphing right before our eyes into a Beltway centrist Trojan Horse for Tom Daschle and Democratic lobbyists who want their piece of the pie.

Steve is very wrong that Obama has lost the election. Obama is likely to win. What he has done is lost the chance to put the election away already. The political conditions are such that Obama could run the worst campaign in history and still win. The GOP brand is that bad. But he is right that Obama squandered these two months.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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  • Display: Sort:
    What's so frustrating is that, even if (5.00 / 3) (#1)
    by andgarden on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:23:26 PM EST
    Obama didn't think that he needed Hillary as VP, he could--should--have been going after McCain much hard in paid media. In race after race, the person on TV (and negative) first wins. The truth is that Obama is running the same $h*tty campaign today that he has been since March, when Hillary finally figured out how to go after him, after which Obama only won with massive demographic advantages.

    (Incidentally, heads should roll for spending millions in Georgia. Yes, Indiana and Florida could be justified, but not Georgia. If Obama gets within 5 points of McCain in Georgia I'll eat my hate).

    Eat my *hat* (No, I don't have a hat. Sue me.) (5.00 / 1) (#2)
    by andgarden on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:23:47 PM EST
    Obama did not win in March (5.00 / 3) (#13)
    by BrianJ on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:35:52 PM EST
    With "massive demographic advantages."  He lost repeatedly even with those-  Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Kentucky (by 30 points!), West Virginia (by 40 points!!), South Dakota after being officially proclaimed the nominee.

    He won with superdelegates.  And like every Democratic nominee since I was born, save Clinton, he then believed that he had nothing left to achieve.

    Parent

    You misread me (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by andgarden on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:40:05 PM EST
    he won primaries only in places where he had a massive Demographic advantage.

    Parent
    nonsense... (5.00 / 4) (#136)
    by p lukasiak on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 03:33:08 AM EST
    Clinton had no "demographic" advantages, she had "political" ones.  The key states where she won looked like America as a whole, while most of Obama's key victories came from states that didn't look like America.   In other words, Obama was a niche candidate who couldn't break out of his niche.  His appeal was limited to certain demographics, while Clinton's appeal was far more general.

    Parent
    Texas is the exception that proves the rule (none / 0) (#124)
    by andgarden on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 01:01:15 AM EST
    When there was a fair(ish) fight, Obama just couldn't close the deal. So too Indiana and South Dakota.

    Parent
    Yep. The problem is not just (5.00 / 13) (#59)
    by Cream City on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:30:47 PM EST
    that "Obama has never gone after Republicans and specifically tied them to Bush," unquote BTD.

    Obama never has had to go after Republicans, period.  

    Chicago is a one-party town, so he never has gone after anything but Democrats (and even that, not so much other than on technicalities to get them off the ballot, so he could win by default).

    He and his camp know how to wreak internal destruction on Democrats.  They only know how to go along to get along with Republicans, because that's how it's played at the state level in Illinois with downstaters when occasionally needed, too.

    But no branding of Republicans is needed in Chicago.  They're about as numerous there as Packers fans.  

    This is another part of the "experience" needed to run for president: How to go after Republicans, not Democrats.

    Parent

    Exactly (none / 0) (#152)
    by Fen on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 07:18:01 AM EST
    don't understand is that Obama CAN'T go after Republicans.

    Its a cath-22. Obama branded himself as a "different" kind of politician - above all the partisan spite. He wouldn't be the nom in the first place without that branding.  

    Parent

    "the same $h*tty campaign" (2.50 / 2) (#58)
    by Alien Abductee on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:30:39 PM EST
    So you see no value at all in the work the campaign is doing to rebuild the infrastructure of the party as a more coherent vehicle - more centrist than some of us would like, but at least a less strategically conflicted, more broad-based, more forward-looking organization - whether Obama wins himself or not?

    Parent
    hum (5.00 / 11) (#61)
    by dissenter on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:33:58 PM EST
    Would this be the new party that doesn't need working class Americans, Latinos, women, seniors, etc. You reap what you sow.

    Ya, it was one "sh$tty campaign" and has done nothing to improve infrastructure.

    Parent

    " more broad-based" (5.00 / 8) (#82)
    by Amiss on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 11:05:18 PM EST
    Are you really expecting anyone to take you serious on that?

    Parent
    well you can wallow in "we are change (5.00 / 4) (#96)
    by hellothere on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 11:44:09 PM EST
    whether we win or not" but you'll be in that tub all by yourself after november. the dems will move on looking for a new winner and well, like you'll be all alone.

    Parent
    Geez (5.00 / 2) (#135)
    by Gabriele Droz on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 03:31:39 AM EST
    Accommodating and respecting Bi-Partisanship has brought us...WHAT???

    Parent
    There Is Little Value In Rebuilding (5.00 / 8) (#140)
    by MO Blue on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 04:18:14 AM EST
    the PARTY when it is being rebuilt into an Unity08 vehicle that abandons much of what half of the existing party believes is the core of the party.

    Turning off long time Democratic voters and turning them into Independent voters is not good strategy IMO.

    Parent

    Well, if this keeps up (5.00 / 1) (#144)
    by magisterludi on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 05:04:12 AM EST
    the dems will have plenty of free time to reshuffle the party infrastructure... when they're the minority party again.

    Anyone see or read the transcripts of the Moyers-Bacevich interview? Every American should see or read it.

    Parent

    He's not (5.00 / 4) (#148)
    by Nadai on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 06:26:12 AM EST
    "rebuilding the Party infrastructure", he's consolidating his power base and ousting rivals.  And no, I don't see any value in that.

    Parent
    Saying that I see "no value at all" (none / 0) (#71)
    by andgarden on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:42:59 PM EST
    in the organizing is, at best, a straw man. I think it is good for perhaps two points in any race, and is insufficient to guarantee the kind of win that is possible--especially if it only takes two points out of McCain's margin in, say, Georgia or North Carolina.

    No, I believe that today Presidential elections are still won or lost on TV and messaging, and Obama is just doing a terrible job of flighting that battle. In that arena, he is running a campaign every bit as bad as John Kerry's.

    Parent

    I'm not happy with the (none / 0) (#75)
    by Alien Abductee on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:50:02 PM EST
    lack of negative branding being done either - I want a Dem presidency, and that's what's needed to get one.

    But there's a more long-term strategy at work that imo will have benefits down the road no matter what, and that difference in strategic vision is what the fight was really for control of in the primaries.

    Parent

    That long term strategy will be meaningless if (5.00 / 3) (#76)
    by tigercourse on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:53:20 PM EST
    we continue to nominate candidates like Obama. Infrastruture is great. But the leader must be strong.

    Parent
    Personally, (2.00 / 0) (#81)
    by Alien Abductee on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:59:51 PM EST
    I think he's a stronger candidate than either Kerry or Gore was. He just needs to let McCain have it.

    Parent
    Good luck with that....obama looks more (5.00 / 7) (#92)
    by PssttCmere08 on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 11:37:52 PM EST
    like the 3rd term of bush, much more than McCain.
    McCain has been smacking obama down, and obama is floundering around like a dinghy in choppy seas.
    We know what McCain is and stands for, obama...not so much.

    Parent
    Sam Nunn!! (none / 0) (#3)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:26:34 PM EST
    I thought you were announcing (5.00 / 1) (#14)
    by MichaelGale on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:36:02 PM EST
    that Sam Nunn was the vp. Jeesh

    Parent
    some comic relief (none / 0) (#39)
    by NJDem on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:05:00 PM EST
    I hope :)

    Finally! the announcement we've been waiting for

    Parent

    hee hee n/t (none / 0) (#6)
    by DandyTIger on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:28:53 PM EST
    heh (none / 0) (#7)
    by andgarden on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:31:12 PM EST
    Dick Russell himself couldn't come back from the dead and win Georgia for Obama.

    Parent
    I saw a bumper sticker today (5.00 / 2) (#9)
    by Radiowalla on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:31:49 PM EST
    that said just that:  "McCain=Bush's third term."

    How simple.  How direct.  How terrifying.

    How not working. Hell, even Feingold said that (5.00 / 2) (#70)
    by masslib on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:40:50 PM EST
    ain't gonna work.

    Parent
    Except those who follow politics, (5.00 / 1) (#83)
    by zfran on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 11:10:22 PM EST
    perhaps not enough, know the truth. Not only might McCain=Bush3, looking at Obama himself might lead one to the same conclusion about him and how he will (rule)serve! There seems not to be much daylight between them. Perhaps that is what Obama is counting on so they'll vote for the "new guy" and take a chance. Otherwise, McCain has had a chance to define himself and from what some have seen, he is a better choice with a dem congress. I know BTD will think my comment(s) is predictable, however, yesterday he was saying Obama blew it (in essence)and today he found a way for Obama to still win.

    Parent
    Not much need for finesse this time (5.00 / 4) (#105)
    by joanneleon on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 12:01:41 AM EST
    Many elections in the last decade or so didn't have the kind of contrast we have this year.  Those campaigns required more finesse to allow people to see the differences in the stances.  This one doesn't, or shouldn't.

    This year, geez, there is just not that much need to overthink things.  We don't need to finesse this one.  Bumper stickers like that, and a message like that, is what would work.  The "change" message is the thing that we saw plastered all over the place.  What happened to it now?  Instead of distancing himself from McCain, there have been too many times when the Dems have moved closer to his positions.  This isn't going to fly with the populace.  We're already steaming that the Dem majority in 2006 didn't do what they said they'd do.  Now we have a pres candidate who is looking like he isn't going to come through with all that change we've heard about for the last year.

    God, I hope they are keeping their eyes on the ball.  Details and stagecraft at the convention, and making it a historical event is not nearly as important as running against your opponent.  I mean, the convention is a show for your friends.  

    At this point, it looks like the Obama campaign will spend more energy trying to humiliate the Clintons than McCain.  It's like a tragic flaw.

    Where's Axelrod and his brilliant campaign work?  Did Daschle take over or something?  It's hard to understand what's happening.

    Parent

    Except that slogan doesn't wash. (5.00 / 3) (#108)
    by MarkL on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 12:08:12 AM EST
    I don't find McCain similar to Bush in style or personality, at all. Isn't this at least as important as policy?
    Also, I don't think you can infer that a McCain Presidency will entail a continuation of Bush policies across the board. He voted as a loyal Republican in the last 8 years--- just like Chuck Hagel, who is a hero to many lefty-centrist bloggers--but if you don't think Hagel would be the same as Bush, then how can you say the same of McCain?

    The reason I'm writing this is that i dont' believe the McCain=Bush mantra is the magic bullet some of you hope;  and anyway, hasn't Obama said that quite a bit, already?

    Parent

    my sentiments exactly.... (5.00 / 3) (#139)
    by p lukasiak on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 04:08:19 AM EST
    ...while McCain's 'maverick' image has been tarnished by the last eight years, he's still got that image, and could polish it up with ease to the point where the Bush Third Term mantra would be seen as absurd.

    Parent
    Nonsense (none / 0) (#160)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 07:29:29 AM EST
    IF you LET him do it unopposed, sure. IF you use that big war chest Obama has to rip the shred out of him., you can't.

    I find your belief that McCain is some American Deity just absurd in the extreme.

    Parent

    Obama tried to oppose (5.00 / 2) (#162)
    by Fen on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 08:45:54 AM EST
    IF you LET him do it unopposed, sure.

    And came off saying the only time he reached across the aisle in a bi-partisan manner was with... McCain.

    The problem is that McCain has a history of bucking the GOP, Obama does not.

    Parent

    How about on issues? (none / 0) (#159)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 07:28:24 AM EST
    On Iraq: similar to Bush. On taxes, similar (none / 0) (#171)
    by MarkL on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 01:01:12 PM EST
    to Bush. On global warming, very different.
    On open government, different.

    Parent
    Most Americans (5.00 / 1) (#115)
    by SueBonnetSue on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 12:37:51 AM EST
    See McCain as nothing like Bush.  McCain doesn't talk about his faith, McCain is a war hero.  He's very direct, speaks well, and is easily understood, even if we don't agree with him.  Bush is none of those things.

    I think it's a loser campaign to try to tie McCain to Bush.  People can see for themselves that McCain isn't Bush.  

    Why doesn't Obama campaign FOR himself, and for democrats, on our issues?  

    Let America hear what Obama supports.  He needs to sell himself and our party!  

    Parent

    Well, negative campaigning is fine. (none / 0) (#117)
    by MarkL on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 12:42:25 AM EST
    I agree about the "McSame" lameness, though.
    It really pains me that the only other attacks are that he cheated on his first wife, and that he was, somehow, not a "model" POW. Urck.
    How about a discussion of his legislative record? Or what about the Keating 5?
    Or---and here is the kind of ad  a REPUBLICAN would run against McCain: how about showing footage of him traveling in Baghdad, touting the safety of the marketplace, and then show the place the next day, after bombings killed dozens of people.
    Put some real blood on McCain's hands.

    Parent
    Democrats talking about cheating (none / 0) (#178)
    by SueBonnetSue on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 10:01:30 PM EST
    On a spouse?  Oh my.  That won't work.  They'll throw Bill Clinton and John Edwards in our faces.  We'll see endless pictures of John Edwards'  "love child".

    If democrats REALLY want to lose, then, yeah, attack McCain's FIVE years as a POW.  Say he wasn't a good prisoner, or whatever.  That's a GUARANTEED way to lose the election.  It will anger millions of voters.  

    What the heck is wrong with our party?!!!  

    Parent

    Remember the "kiss" parade float? (none / 0) (#12)
    by andgarden on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:34:05 PM EST
    Obama needs a "hug" float for McCain.

    Parent
    Obama takes a chance if he goes (5.00 / 1) (#18)
    by MichaelGale on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:40:36 PM EST
    negative against McCain with Bush. Plus he is too scared to do that.

    When he goes negative he does it in that passive aggressive way that will turn people off.  Axelrod could do it though as he did in the primaries.

    I  think Obama is also wanting Republican votes. Republicans may be over Bush and made a 360 on him but berating him in an election may not be wise.

    repubs are quite different from dems. (5.00 / 1) (#101)
    by hellothere on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 11:53:57 PM EST
    they don't diss their icons. they play hardball but overall there is more organization and discipline. i don't care for their brand of doing things but against this dog and pony show it can be leathal.

    Parent
    Reagan's 11th commandment (5.00 / 2) (#123)
    by SueBonnetSue on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 12:58:44 AM EST
    Republicans don't dump on other republicans.  

    Calling McCain a racist would never work.  America's known McCain for decades and they know he's no racist.  If Obama tried that stunt it would backfire, again.  

    Why can't we hear what Obama's ideas are?  Why can't he campaign FOR his principles and ideas?

    Parent

    Talkleft is the best! (5.00 / 7) (#19)
    by Grace on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:42:05 PM EST
    Having been joined now be a chorus of Obama blogs in concern with Obama's post partisan unity schtick campaign, I am somewhat amused that no one noticed the problem before.

    This blog was waaaaay ahead of the curve!  ;-)

    Well (5.00 / 19) (#23)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:46:22 PM EST
    you have to realize that while the GOP brand may be in the trash, Obama is not running as a Democrat. You can't win that argument when you're campaign is based on lowering Democrats to same level as Republicans. It's pretty disingenuos to run against Washington when you are a product of Washington like Obama. It's a good strategy for a Governor but it really doesn't fly with Obama.

    Obama has run a horrible campaign and is an awful candidate. There's no debating it. One point that Steve missed is that Obama has done virtually nothing this summer. It's not just about defining McCain negatively, it's about trying to get Democrats to vote for him. Heck, he can't even try to get the base on board because he's too busy with the creepy rallies overseas and throwing sand in the eyes of people who supported Hillary.

    The Bush third term isn't really all that effective a strategy because it makes the race personal which is a huge mistake. You have to make it about issues which, again, Obama has failed to do. It's not about Bush or McCain, it's about the conservative ideology and what a disaster that has been for the country. But I guess when you're on tape talking about how great a President Reagan was, it makes it kind of a hard sell.

    You don't do issues in Chicago (5.00 / 6) (#64)
    by Cream City on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:35:54 PM EST
    unless the issue is government spending and   corruption.  You just say you won't be so corrupt that you'll get caught.  That's called cutting back on government spending by saving the taxpayers some money on yet more prosecutions.

    Otherwise, Chicago politics is about personality.  And patronage.  Patronage makes Chicago pols real personable to the people.  As long as the pols don't get caught.

    And even if they do get caught, they're appreciated for their entertainment value.  It's the Chicago Way.

    Parent

    I must agree, a terrible campaign (5.00 / 1) (#116)
    by SueBonnetSue on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 12:41:05 AM EST
    Obama isn't going to win the votes of Germans, so why bother to campaign there?  And what was with the vacation to Hawaii?  

    Is Obama really as clueless as it seems?


    Parent

    Track record of "maverick" (5.00 / 1) (#155)
    by Fen on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 07:21:37 AM EST
    The Bush third term isn't really all that effective a strategy

    Also because Indepedents have been watching McCain for some time and remember all the times McCain ticked off the GOP by reaching across the aisle, opposing Bush, etc.

    Parent

    Bush's third term is the best message (5.00 / 1) (#24)
    by ruffian on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:46:23 PM EST
    but it can't go hand in hand with 'he'll do anything to win' . Most people (ok,me) that pay attention believe McCain embraced Bush for just that reason - he thought it would help him win. I'm not convinced he would stick with Bush policies if he did win. I'm more sold on the 'did anything to win' branding.

    Obama can't negative brand at this (5.00 / 14) (#25)
    by tree on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:46:35 PM EST
    point because he's failed to positively brand the Democrats. Apparently the post partisan shtick was more important to him than giving voters a reason to vote Democratic. It will be seen as his biggest mistake. This is not the year to talk about making nice with a party that's trashed the country for the last 8 years. It might have worked in 2000, but in 2004 and 2008 its a bonehead move.

    Obama needs to understand that (5.00 / 12) (#34)
    by Anne on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:59:02 PM EST
    what we often see of him responding to McCain sounds like garden-variety whining, worse even than Bob Dole's "quit lying about my record."

    He tried to warn the voters that McCain was going to try to scare people off, and what did that get him?  Days and days of coverage of his "because I don't look like all the other presidents;" that was a disaster.

    He's playing in a different league, one where he can't be petulant or irritated or whiney when his opponent won't respond according to Obama's plan.  JOhn McCain isn't going to just evaporate or slink off or retreat in fear, and he really seems to have no other plan for dealing with it.

    Obama was back to doing it again today. (5.00 / 9) (#43)
    by Grace on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:10:13 PM EST
    "John McCain is questioning my patriotism, blah, blah, blah..."  It comes across as defensive because it is defensive, and it sounds whiney because it is whiney.  If Obama is so patriotic, why doesn't he show it more?  I don't want to be told.  I want to be shown.  


    Parent
    Help. (5.00 / 3) (#48)
    by shoephone on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:17:30 PM EST
    He's really starting to remind me of John Kerry 2004.

    Parent
    OH NOOOOOO.............. (5.00 / 1) (#118)
    by SueBonnetSue on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 12:43:52 AM EST
    Say it ain't so!  

    Why do so many losing campaigns remind of us Obama?  

    Parent

    He's "reporting for duty" to G_d in (5.00 / 1) (#120)
    by MarkL on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 12:45:47 AM EST
    Denver. Much better than what Kerry did!

    Parent
    I watched some of the speech and (5.00 / 4) (#85)
    by zfran on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 11:12:48 PM EST
    once again, when delivering with a prompter, never once looked at his audience. Contrarily, I saw McCain speaking with a prompter and he looked at his audience. He's getting better. Obama looked mad, McCain looked grown.

    Parent
    Rule One (none / 0) (#170)
    by nemo52 on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 12:12:11 PM EST
    of politics:  don't go around repeating the opposition's arguements against you!

    Parent
    McCain has expertly (5.00 / 18) (#53)
    by ccpup on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:20:13 PM EST
    hit on Obama's Achille's Heel:  his pride.

    Question anything about Obama and you're sure to get a whiny, offended, petulant response in return.  Not the humor of a Hillary Clinton and a nice and neat pivot to her Issue of the Day.  With Obama it really seems to be about him, him, him and he's angered and hurt when he's "disrespected".

    Like McCain could care less.  All he needs to do is prick the balloon a little here, a little there and keep Obama on the defensive "defending" himself (which most people will view as whining and quickly grow tired of) and Voila! McCain is raising his right hand and being sworn in in January 2009.

    There's a reason politicians with experience have skin as thick as a rhinoceros and Obama, with his inexperience in national politics, ain't there yet.

    Parent

    I don't think all of Obama's recent (5.00 / 12) (#90)
    by Grace on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 11:32:20 PM EST
    difficulties are due to McCain being better at branding.  

    I think part of the problem is Obama himself.  

    Obama really stands for nothing.  He's got a slim little resume that won't hold up under pressure.  He can't tout his policies because he isn't really committed to any of them -- and even if he said he were, the Republicans can point to his recent flip-flops on FISA and campaign finance and question if his word really means anything?  

    Obama likes to be the blank screen that people project their values on, and while that might have worked in smaller elections, it won't work running for President.  Too many people are seeing through that.  They want to vote for someone who stands for something, even if it's not the things they stand for.  (The only analogy I can think of off the top of my head:  If someone asks you which you like better, Coke or Pepsi, you can pick one because you know what they both taste like.  If someone asks you which you like better, Coke or the beverage that hasn't been invented yet but tastes like the best thing in the world -- well, you'll probably pick Coke because you know what Coke tastes like.)  

    Parent

    well it is a little late in the day (5.00 / 3) (#94)
    by hellothere on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 11:41:44 PM EST
    to repackage obama. and i don't think he and the campaign would allow it. they are so invested in being right and the rest of us being wrong, wrong i tell you.

    Parent
    What happened to Obama's platform? (5.00 / 6) (#40)
    by Grace on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:05:23 PM EST
    Instead of offering specifics, he's pushing a bunch of mush mouth.  He copied Hillary in the primaries, but once she left, he was forced to do his own work and it appears he doesn't know what to do.  He's trying to crib off McCain but McCain keeps coming up with bold initiatives (drilling anybody?) and Obama is caught off-guard.  

    Health care, health care, health care (5.00 / 7) (#74)
    by Cream City on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:47:00 PM EST
    and did I mention health care?

    It's an economic issue and a compassion issue, and the combination is the winning brand with the base and a lot of Independents and others, too.  

    And the Dems own the issue.  So if Obama is a Dem on the issue, it could be the winning issue.

    Just ask Clinton.  Actually, he could say right now that he's going to ask her to be the point person on it in the Senate and put all the power of the White House behind her -- and the people know that combination could do it, at last.

    But then, what would there be to whine about?


    Parent

    He'll never push for universal/mandated health (5.00 / 1) (#146)
    by suzieg on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 06:09:55 AM EST
    care in his first term - said so himself in an interview in our newspaper. Will consider it in his 2nd term and only if it worked for kids. So don't hold your breath!

    It pains me to know that the democratic party's nominee will not even consider it - that it's a case closed for him because it would take too much political potential away from his second term run. Why else would he shut his ears to all the horrific stories he must hear on the campaign trail? It infuriates me when he goes around stating that he's going to fight for universal health care, when in fact he's only considering universal access!

    Parent

    I know he won't. So I know (none / 0) (#166)
    by Cream City on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 09:44:16 AM EST
    he probably won't win.  And what you note here about what you hear from him is what I have heard, too, from the start.  He is not a fighting Dem.  

    And a fighting Dem would win right now -- and win so much more for us all.  So I hold responsible all those who supported, from the start, a non-fighting Dem.

    Parent

    Obama's platform was not his (5.00 / 7) (#78)
    by Prabhata on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:55:00 PM EST
    It was Hillary's and he just copied it.  Obama does not feel strongly about any of those issues, like health care, FISA, etc.  When he talks about the issues he gets lost because they are not his.

    Parent
    I don't see him as lazy. (5.00 / 11) (#42)
    by tree on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:09:43 PM EST
    I think he's bought his own hype. After all he's been promoting himself as some kind of grand "uniter" for decades, despite the fact that he hasn't really been able to "unite" anyone. He's in a bubble of his own making and doesn't know how to get out, because he can't see his own bubble.

    Bubble? Like Bush? (5.00 / 3) (#56)
    by Prabhata on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:28:11 PM EST
    I've said it before, Obama is Bush revisited.  I guess the DNC decided Bush was a winner and the party needed someone like Bush.

    Parent
    i don't think obama has a clue what to do (5.00 / 3) (#100)
    by hellothere on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 11:48:48 PM EST
    now. he has surrounded himself with yes people who see him as something he isn't. they have agendas ranging from power to money. reality has knocked on the door a few times but no on answers. history and literature are full of similar stories sad to say.

    Parent
    there is no spoon (none / 0) (#45)
    by DandyTIger on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:13:13 PM EST
    OK, funny matrix reference. He has to see that there is no bubble. Good point, and I think you're right.

    Parent
    Ha. Yes that's it. (5.00 / 1) (#63)
    by tree on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:35:38 PM EST
    and at the DNC there won't be any forks, either.

    If you look at a spoon head on, you see your distorted reflection. But there is no spoon, just a false view of oneself.

    Parent

    The country knows John McCain (5.00 / 4) (#44)
    by OxyCon on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:10:22 PM EST
    ...and for the most part, they like him, so I don't see how he can be "branded".
    Now, newcomers with thin resumes? Low hanging fruit.

    Has anyone seen the film from the documentary (5.00 / 3) (#151)
    by suzieg on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 06:40:21 AM EST
    "Carrier" on PBS which shows McCain going to the rescue of his ground crewmen when a bomb exploded on the deck of the carrier he was about to take off from?

    The whole deck was on fire, with bombs exploding, when a generator overheated them and set them off on and next to his plane. We clearly see him slide down the refueling nosel on the nose of his plane, running away from it, turning around and run back to save his groundcrew. It was impressive

    After watching that and I'm sure it will be played at the republican convention, I just don't know how Obama can run a successful campaign and win the election against a hero/pow during a time of war on two fronts, the possibility of a resurrecting cold war and looming economical crisis with his thin resume and short time in the senate.

    I've been a democrat for over 40 yrs and I've never felt so insecure, helpless and hopeless because I don't have confidence in our nominee to fight for our long standing progressive values.

    I watched him, sell his soul, on that "faith forum" on Saturday.  His whole campaign, since he clinched the nomination, has become so disheartening and discouraging.....

    Parent

    Obama needs to wake up (5.00 / 6) (#47)
    by mmc9431 on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:15:23 PM EST
    I'm not as convinced the the election is a done deal yet. Obama has done nothing in the last few months to instill confidence in me. Somewhere along the primary route he started to believe his press people. (The WH was his).

    Regardless of the reality, a lot of people believe the maverick label that McCain has. Obama has done nothing to change that view. Tying him to Bush will take more effort than Obama has been willing to exercise to date.

    I also think that flipping on principles such as FISA, off shore drilling, public funding and whatever will only accent the doubts that people have about his leadership and convictions.

    Really, this post doesn't fully capture just (5.00 / 15) (#86)
    by frankly0 on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 11:19:36 PM EST
    how inept the Obama campaign has been, given the extraordinary craving the country has developed for change.

    The thing that I can't get out of my head is that, to date, McCain and the Republicans have basically pulled to a draw in the Presidential race without them using anything remotely resembling their A game.

    When's the last time you've heard anything about Wright, or Ayers (not to mention the players to be named later)?

    Essentially, not a peep from the Republicans about these damaging issues, and Obama is already in the fight of his life?

    All it takes to cut Obama down to size is to compare him to Paris Hilton?

    I never thought Obama would wear well over the entirety of the general election cycle, or that he would survive fully intact after the Republicans let the dogs out. But I'm astonished it's taken only a few dings to deform him and his image.

    obama had a series of decisions to (5.00 / 1) (#102)
    by hellothere on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 11:55:53 PM EST
    make and for the most part they have been bad ones. sure there all these supporters and advisors out the ying yang. but the ball and responsibility stops with obama. it does if he is president also.

    Parent
    It's really sad, isn't it? (5.00 / 5) (#104)
    by Grace on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 12:01:16 AM EST
    All it takes to cut Obama down to size is to compare him to Paris Hilton?

    When you think about it, most of the other things, he's done to himself.  (The trip to Europe, the vacation, the "I don't look like the guys on dollar bills," etc.)

    Parent

    That's a risk I'm not willing to take (5.00 / 16) (#88)
    by joanneleon on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 11:29:07 PM EST
    I think the Obama campaign believes this too:

    The political conditions are such that Obama could run the worst campaign in history and still win.

    It should be true for this election.  But I am not confident that it is true.  And we haven't even seen what kind of tricks the Republicans are going to pull yet.  They are morphing McCain into a guy who is going to win the war in Iraq and get us out, who's going to catch bin Laden, and who is going to be the greenest Republican you've ever seen, and all kinds of other things.  If things keep going this way, he's going to differentiate himself from Bush so much that he'll look like an Independent.  You won't even remember he's a Republican.  That's what all the Repubs have been doing when election time comes around -- they are removing the failed Republican brand from every piece of campaign propaganda they have.

    It's unbelievable.

    Marshall thinks it's a good idea to attack McCain by saying he'll do anything to win? What's so surprising about that?  That's a primary campaign attack, not a general election attack.  In a primary, you don't do anything to win because it might damage your opponent, your ally.  In the general, heck, who doesn't expect a candidate to do anything to win?  

    Maybe they are trying to lose.  Or maybe, they considered the primary to be the real race, and they think they can now coast to a win in November with a "we can't lose" attitude.  That's a risk I'm not willing to take.  Or maybe they're scared to death of the Republican attacks and spend most of their time on defense.  Obama has a lot of weaknesses to attack, so it wouldn't surprise me, given what we've seen lately, if he never really gets his offense out on the field.

    I feel like we've been sold a bill of goods, and in the meantime, done a lot of damage to the Clintons, who are the only reason we have a leg to stand on with economic issues and the only two term Dem president in the last forty years.  Brilliant.  Worse yet, I saw this whole thing coming, and so did a lot of other people.  And there's not a damn thing we could have done about it.  The fix was in.

    So many things right (5.00 / 5) (#130)
    by Makarov on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 01:49:24 AM EST
    about what you and others are saying.

    I'll add something about what I've seen from the McCain campaign so far in the Philadelphia media market. I've seen two commercials, one that ran in June, and another one that's running now.

    The first was all issues - renewable energy, affordable health care - Democratic issues. The second is, I think, called "the original maverick" - voice over talks about how McCain stood up to big tobacco and he'll stand up to the oil companies, and reform wall street. If you didn't know McCain was a Republican you'd think he was a Democrat watching either ad. He hasn't run attack ads here.

    I've said for a while that the Republican plan would be to make people think McCain and Obama were the same on the issues - except Obama will raise your taxes and surrender to the terrorists. In regards to Iraq, which about 10% of the country gives a crap about at all given the state of the economy, I expect troop withdraws will be announced in October, by Bush, Gates, and Patreus. McCain will take credit vis a vis his support of the surge, and we'll be reminded how Obama said it wouldn't work.

    I'm confident about only thing. Given the economy, which won't be getting better in the next 3 months, I think Hillary Clinton as VP could turn this around and win it.

    Parent

    A big factor, I think (none / 0) (#169)
    by sj on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 11:08:51 AM EST
    "Or maybe, they considered the primary to be the real race, and they think they can now coast to a win in November with a "we can't lose" attitude."

    That's all he's ever had to do before.  Win the primary and he wins the seat.  He thought that's all he had to do this time, too.  He thought that the populace was so disgusted with Bush (and therefore Republicans) that ANY Dem would win without any effort.  So he's put no effort into it.

    I think he forgot about that 9% approval rating for Congress and how it could possibly affect him.  So now he's reacting as the spoiled only child who isn't getting his way.

    Parent

    Isn't the core problem that Obama (5.00 / 1) (#103)
    by MarkL on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 12:00:29 AM EST
    doesn't recognize there is a problem?
    I know others of you have said this as well, but for me, the rock solid proof of this oblivity is the dissing of Rangel and Clark, especially Rangel.
    How does that help him win the election in November?

    The only thing that surprises me about the campaign now is the near panic of many Obama supporters, when we have not even had the convention.


    It doesn't surprise me.... (5.00 / 5) (#112)
    by miriam on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 12:18:24 AM EST
    His supporters are, and always have been, emotionally invested in Obama himself and that is very very different than being invested in what is best for the country.  Otherwise they could never have been so hysterically willing to vilify Bill Clinton.  That vilification I resent more than anything else about Obama and his sycophants. More rational people will not suspend their disbelief to embrace a fantasy "savior" and are looking clearly at what Obama is--or, more accurately, what he is not.  His supporters remind me of nothing so much as the saying: There are none so blind as those who will not see.

    Parent
    McCain (5.00 / 2) (#131)
    by Miri on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 01:51:28 AM EST
    Obama cannot "define" McCain.

    McCain has been a national figure for decades. People have a clear idea who he is. It would be very difficult to change that.

    It is much easier to define political figures who are not well known.

    Kerry was well-known too... (none / 0) (#133)
    by EL seattle on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 03:05:44 AM EST
    ... but the Swift-Boaters defined him (with a lot of help from the media and the flotsam and jetsam of the campaign).  So it can be done.  Whether it can be done without getting dirty and ugly, or whether the Obama team can apply an "effective" definition of their choice to McCain, is another question.  But it can be done.

    I'm concerned that someone on the Obama team panics and starts plastering a heavy-handed "Old Man" them everywhere.  And I mean everywhere.  True, it's one of McCain's weaknesses.  But it might not be that much of a weakness and might offer the McCain campaign with another opportunity to show off their jujitsu skills.  

    Parent

    Kerry wasn't defined.... (5.00 / 4) (#141)
    by p lukasiak on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 04:36:47 AM EST
    ...Kerry had a good 'back-story', but the country really didn't know who John Kerry was, other than a Democrat.

    And while I think that Kerry could have won, the fact is that Bush was still a not-unpopular "war" President, and that means an uphill battle for any challenger.  Kerry could have run the same kind of campaign this year, and won handily.

    Obama is simply the wrong candidate for this year -- someone like him would have been great in 2000, when Americans were confident about their future and the prospect of further progress.  But right now, people need someone who has a clear and unambiguous vision of where they wnat to take the country -- Obama may be pointing out that shining city on the hill, but people are looking at the road and seeing nothing but disrepair --- and Obama not only doesn't have a plan to fix the road, he doesn't show any indication that he knows how to fill a pot hole.  

    Parent

    You confuse the Media (none / 0) (#156)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 07:21:52 AM EST
    with the American People. John McCain is easy to define.

    Parent
    I disagree with the 'negative branding' (5.00 / 2) (#143)
    by p lukasiak on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 04:50:15 AM EST
    thesis.  McCain had his own brand, and the whole Bush Third Term thing would not have stuck.

    What Obama needed to do was engage in the Politics of Contrast --- the GOP brand itself was already in disrepute, and by promoting the Democratic brand as a positive, he could have succeeded.  Instead (and with a LOT of help from idiotic congresscritters) he's been muddying the distinction between the two parties rather than creating a stark contrast.

    I think the main reason that I supported Edwards is that he was presented himself as the candidate most likely to exploit the Politics of Contrast.  While Clinton was all about running a postitive "issue oriented" campaign, and Obama was about the kumbayah moment, Edwards rhetoric was about "taking on" the other side.  (And I think that Clinton hit her stride when her rhetoric became more agressive in terms of "standing up for the people.")

    Obama gave himself away (5.00 / 4) (#145)
    by bluejane on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 06:09:36 AM EST
    when responding to a questioner after his FISA/telco immunity cave when he said, "FISA might be a deal-breaker for you and that's okay. You won't always agree with me and that's fine." Gee, that sounds reasonable -- but when you stop and think about it, that's an outrageous thing to say. He was inoculating himself for future mind-changes so he'd be able to say, "I've always said we would not always agree and that's fine."

    Who is that "fine" to? It's fine to him but it's not fine to me. It throws my opinion out the window without an explanation (or he misrepresents  the content of FISA bill in his explanation). We just disagree. Period. Deal-breaker? Drop dead.  Next question?

    It's obvious that taking no firm stands on policies gives him the greatest latitude in courting the general public because there are no boundaries of principle to limit him. This is what he means by "unity." No deal-breakers for him, only deal-breakers for those us who are stubborn about things like the Constitution (Not to get psychological but I think this stems partly from  lack of confidence that he'll be elected, so he's giving himself every possible leeway. "The soft bigotry of low expectations" about himself).

    Whatever it is, this is the behavior of a tyrant. Not a listener, not a uniter, but a tyrant.  He might not be a malevolent tyrant but this is the gestalt we're looking at, the model we're allowing his campaign to create whose conditioning to subjective trust can be adopted by a less benevolent future tyrant.

    As to BHO's "lost opportunity," he lost/betrayed the heart of his party with his FISA flip, as one of several examples, he figured he could impress the intel boys by going along with Bush on FISA while guessing his Dem base had "nowhere else to go." Wrong.  

    I find it nearly impossible to campaign for Obama to get out the vote because I can't talk to voters or host house parties in my midsized California town (as I've done every election season for the last 25 years) explaining Obama's stands on issues because I don't know how he stands on issues and I'm  hesitant to perpetrate a fraud upon my neighbors by pretending I do. Major disconnect right there. Paralyzing. Many of my fellow townspeople feel the same way, caught in this dilemma of trying to campaign for a candidate we don't understand. There are no deal-breakers. There is no deal. There is only subjective devotional trust based on BO's "unlikely" biography, etc. Slap on the back, "Hail fellow, well met! He's a great guy. A least he's better than Bush." How pathetic. His FISA move was no better than Bush. His campaign's insistence on subjective trust is no better than Bush. Trust is for dictatorships.

    Negative branding? How about positive standing -- and staying there so we can get a campaign moving?

    No use of BHO please (none / 0) (#153)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 07:20:03 AM EST
    No doubt about it (1.25 / 20) (#21)
    by Ennis on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:42:26 PM EST
    Obama could have spent a lot of time and money on framing McCain if Hillary would have thrown in the towel when it was apparent she couldn't win.

    Um (5.00 / 7) (#28)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:49:26 PM EST
    No doubt he had June and July for that and did not.

    Hillary did him a favor by keeping McCain out of the spotlight until then. Otherwise, Obama would have started floundering even earlier.

    Hillary is the only reason Obama has a chance (as long as we are going to write stupid things, I might as well throw that one in.)

    Parent

    I said many times that (5.00 / 11) (#67)
    by Valhalla on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:37:18 PM EST
    the Obama campaign would look back on the primaries with nostalgia once McCain got going.

    And it's not just Obama, and not just the 2008 campaign.  The Democrats have had decades to work up a winning strategy against the Republicans.

    Is McCain doing anything new?  Anything that caused even a mild observer of politics to say 'Wow!  I sure didn't see that coming!'

    For how many months has John McCain been the presumtive nominee?  Clinton and Obama were not the only Democrats on earth for the past 8 months.  If instead of taking sides on Clinton vs Obama the Dem leadership had been working to get the themes going that would hurt McCain, they'd have at least have a bit of a foundation to build on.  

    But they chose running on a personality instead of a strategy.  So now it's decades of narrative-building vs 2 months.

    Oh but wait, I forgot, IACF.  Still.

    Sigh.

    Parent

    If the GE were between (5.00 / 4) (#84)
    by Grace on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 11:12:43 PM EST
    Clinton and McCain, we would be looking at a much more energized campaign.  I don't believe either of them would be going on vacation or off to do a press tour of Europe.  

    I'm sad that we ended up with what we ended up with.  This is boredom city.  How many weeks did the Obama campaign think we'd want to sit around and speculate on VPs?  

    Parent

    it isn't like we didn't warn them over and (5.00 / 1) (#98)
    by hellothere on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 11:46:42 PM EST
    over and over.

    Parent
    Obama had to spend (1.14 / 7) (#106)
    by Ennis on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 12:06:07 AM EST
    good money that would otherwise have been used to frame McCain, while Clinton spent $30-million she didn't have.  

    Bottom line, the Democrats wasted two months and $75-million or so fighting each other after the race had already been decided.

    Parent

    They should only let one state vote (5.00 / 2) (#132)
    by Edgar08 on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 02:17:07 AM EST
    or no.  Let markos moulitsas decide all by himself.  Think of all the money they'd save!!!

    Parent
    The decison (1.00 / 1) (#137)
    by Ennis on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 03:34:40 AM EST
    was over by March 1.  All the time and money spent after that was a waste.

    Parent
    don't you mean (none / 0) (#163)
    by Edgar08 on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 09:12:46 AM EST
    everyone who voted after march 1 wasted their time and energy and should have stayed home?

    Parent
    I mean (none / 0) (#164)
    by Ennis on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 09:35:10 AM EST
    Hillary wasted their time, and all that Democratic money that could have been used against McCain.

    Parent
    Well (5.00 / 2) (#158)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 07:27:18 AM EST
    IF you insist on belieing that, good luck to you.

    In June Obama was up by 15 in the LATimes poll, now he is up 2. Hint, Hillary has not been in the race during that time.

    Parent

    Thank you (none / 0) (#177)
    by Ennis on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 04:46:22 PM EST
    for granting me that opinion.  Seriously.  

    Parent
    Yeah, Obama could have been floundering (5.00 / 12) (#29)
    by tigercourse on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:49:53 PM EST
    around ineptly for a whole extra month or two.

    Parent
    Um (5.00 / 8) (#32)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:52:43 PM EST
    Is Obama ever to blame for anything?

    Parent
    He's had 2 and a half (5.00 / 8) (#33)
    by tree on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:54:17 PM EST
    months and he hasn't done a thing. It ain't gonna happen because he's too committed to the unity shtick with Republicans. He only knows how to bash Dems.

    Parent
    how droll (5.00 / 13) (#36)
    by dws3665 on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:01:48 PM EST
    He's had over 2 months now with lots of money and the nomination sewed up.

    But yes, it's Hillary's fault!

    Thank you for another edition of the ABC of politics: Always Blame Clinton.

    Parent

    "Apparent she couldn't win?" (5.00 / 2) (#97)
    by oldpro on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 11:44:34 PM EST
    Apparent to whom?

    It still isn't "apparent that she couldn't win."  She could win, still, because no votes have been taken yet and won't be for another week...all we have is a poll of the superdelegates.  

    I do not think it will happen but it could.

    It ain't over 'til it's over...or until the fat lady sings.

    And that is what is making the O-people so nervous as the convention nears...his support is eroding everywhere, including with Democrats who want to win.

    Parent

    He Could Have Had A Longer Vacation n/t (none / 0) (#142)
    by MO Blue on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 04:39:07 AM EST
    He hasn't bothered (none / 0) (#150)
    by Nadai on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 06:37:12 AM EST
    to do it in the last two months since she conceded - too busy going on vacation, I suppose.  But hey, everyone's entitled to his little fantasy world.

    Parent
    He's been trying that branding off and on (none / 0) (#4)
    by DandyTIger on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:28:07 PM EST
    even before he was the presumptive. I always hear him saying something like the Bush-McCain tax policy or B-M (snark) economy or B-M war, etc. But somehow it hasn't been sticking. Perhaps he hasn't focused enough and has let himself get off message. I think that's probably it. But it may also be that it's a hard brand to make since the perception is that McCain is independent, maverick, or whatever. So Obama may need to do it from some other angle or meme. Not sure.

    I've come to the conclusion (5.00 / 10) (#11)
    by dissenter on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:32:40 PM EST
    That branding isn't going to make a whiff of difference in this election. At the end of the day I think the American people are just going to want an adult in charge.

    I think McCain is going to come off looking more adult.

    Parent

    Russia/ Georgia may be decisive (5.00 / 3) (#15)
    by BrianJ on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:39:34 PM EST
    Not in and of itself, but in what it showed us about the two candidates.

    I believe that McCain's foreign policy vis-a-vis Russia is deeply wrong and threatens to start a new Cold War, or even a hot one.  However, Obama first couldn't be bothered to comment for several days, then gave us contentless pap, and is now backing McCain's position because he couldn't be bothered to establish or even consider an alternative.

    This is how Republicans win.  Forget Lakoff's pseudoscience-  his latest book is about as solid as phrenology.  Republicans win with anchoring.  They always have something to say about any issue, even if it makes no sense.  The Democrats just never seem to be able to cut through their endless analysis to produce a timely statement.  And thus, the Republican position is assumed to be reasonable, even the only reasonable position.

    Parent

    I agree with that too (5.00 / 5) (#27)
    by dissenter on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:47:51 PM EST
    Plus I will add this - Afghanistan is deteriorating faster than most people outside of the country realize. They won't be able to put the mess back together again and the more Obama talks about it the dumber he will look. Kabul is crawling with Taliban. A lot of us think the city will fall by spring.

    Americans don't like to lose wars whether they supported them or not. We may be able to pull Iraq out and that is going to make McCain look smart to the average voter. There is no way in hell we can save Afghanistan.

    Parent

    That's what I've seen too: (5.00 / 2) (#17)
    by Grace on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:40:14 PM EST
    He's tried to brand McCain as "George Bush's third term" and "McSame" and "more of George Bush's failed politics" -- but it just doesn't stick to McCain.  

    McCain still gets that "Maverick" label even if it isn't totally true, and McCain gets credit for actually working bipartisan deals.  To me, it's almost like Obama wants to be "more McCain than McCain is" but that isn't working either.  

    Obama doesn't stand out as a fighter, which is something both Hillary and McCain have excelled at.  Obama hasn't been able to work his life story into "fighter" either.

    Axelrod did a great job in the beginning.  I don't think he's going to be able to win the GE.

    Parent

    Tried? (5.00 / 5) (#31)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:52:02 PM EST
    Not hardly. HAMMERING is trying.

    What McCain is doing to him. EVERY DAY.

    Parent

    One reason some of (5.00 / 9) (#51)
    by Grace on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:18:59 PM EST
    McCain's advertising has been effective is because it's funny!  The ad with Moses was hysterical and laugh out loud funny!  

    I haven't seen Obama (or his campaign) showing much of a sense of humor.  

    One of his worst surrogates is Susan Rice (I think that's her name).  She does foreign policy.  She always looks angry and like she wants to say "I haven't got time for this" whenever I've seen her on TV.  Humorless.

     

    Parent

    Remember back in the spring, (5.00 / 4) (#50)
    by Joan in VA on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:18:10 PM EST
    when Obama started his stump speeches with "I don't know who will be on the ballot in November(slyly referring to himself or Hillary, to the crowd's amusement). One thing I do know is that George W. Bush won't be on the ballot."

    That is most definitely not branding McCain as Bush's third term.

    Parent

    Susan Rice is a foreign policy advisor (2.00 / 1) (#167)
    by sher on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 09:49:59 AM EST
    Why should she be funny?  I do agree that McCain has a sense of humor that seems to infect his campaign but it is discouraging that professional black women always have to be funny or be deemed "angry".

    Parent
    When looking at Brands (5.00 / 11) (#41)
    by nycstray on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:08:19 PM EST
    McCain has his brand and it's known. He's not Bush, but could be made into Bush by another Brand that has strong substance. Obama has no substance. He's all about logos, hope and change. There is no there there that he can point to. He can say he's going to be different, but he can't prove it. After Bush, hello! Now Hillary on the other hand can differentiate herself from McCain and back it up, thus being able to easily paint McCain as the worse parts of the Republican Brand. Oh, and she wouldn't be chasing after the far right either.

    Parent
    I don't quite understand why all the Obama (none / 0) (#5)
    by tigercourse on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:28:33 PM EST
    surrogates from the primary who spent their time calling Clinton a cold, calculating racist don't make the effort to attack McCain. They helped get Obama to this point, they should help get him to the end.

    They thought they were going to coast (5.00 / 1) (#8)
    by andgarden on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:31:43 PM EST
    to November.

    Parent
    They Still Do. n/t (5.00 / 2) (#60)
    by creeper on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:31:05 PM EST
    I think many are still stuck in the primaries (5.00 / 1) (#10)
    by DandyTIger on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:32:23 PM EST
    which is really stupid. I think they're a bit insecure about the nomination or just, well, as I said, really stupid. Yea, the second the nomination was secure all of the pro Obama people should have been focused on the GE. Even now I hear some whiners saying things like the Clintons are steeling the limelight. I never thought I'd say this about Obama supporters about winning the primary, but get over it already!

    Parent
    Insecurity is general (5.00 / 2) (#26)
    by Edgar08 on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:47:41 PM EST
    I'm sure, if and once they beat mccain, the isecurity will still be palpable the need will always remain amongs Obama supporters to made a case for Clinton being a bad president.

    I'm still quite confident in my sports analogy.

    Steve Young never felt the need to make a case against Joe Montana.  Probably because he had the self-confidence and work ethic to become a hall of famer in his own right.


    Parent

    I've always liked your analogy (none / 0) (#46)
    by nycstray on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:13:49 PM EST
    I was a die hard 'niner fan through both of them. I met and did a shoot with Young and Holmgren (sp?) during the strike. Both were very into the game and planning etc. A lot of dedication there.

    Parent
    Well I think I'm being a unity advocate (5.00 / 3) (#54)
    by Edgar08 on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:22:45 PM EST
    with that analogy too.

    If I really wanted to stick it to the Obama folks, I wouldn't be comparing him to Steve Young, I'd be comparing him to Ryan Leaf.

    Who is probably holed up in a bar somewhere trying to convince people that Young and Montana were just lucky to have good receivers and coaches around them and were totally overrated, ....  man.

    No one wants to be Ryan Leaf.


    Parent

    lol!~ :) (none / 0) (#57)
    by nycstray on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:30:18 PM EST
    Just imagine (none / 0) (#95)
    by BrianJ on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 11:43:55 PM EST
    The Indianapolis Colts had the first pick in the 1998 draft.  Their choices were two equally hyped quarterbacks, Leaf and Peyton Manning.  They took Manning, the Chargers took Leaf with the #2 pick, and the rest is history.  (At least the Chargers got LaDainian Tomlinson a few years later after Leaf completely imploded... of course, they could have screwed up again and taken Michael Vick...)

    Parent
    Could It Be (none / 0) (#77)
    by creeper on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:53:40 PM EST
    that they know the nomination is NOT secure?  Maybe that's why they're still in primary mode.

    Parent
    racist was their only effective attack (5.00 / 6) (#22)
    by souvarine on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:45:51 PM EST
    And it doesn't work in a general election against John McCain.

    Obama spent most of 2007 trying out various lines of attack against Bill and Hillary Clinton but none of them had any impact on her negatives among Democrats. It wasn't until after NH, when he started rolling out the race charges, that he made any headway.

    He is running through the same lines against McCain, to similar effect.

    Parent

    The race card worked with the AAs (5.00 / 14) (#62)
    by Prabhata on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:34:46 PM EST
    but angered Hillary supporters.  We were told we were being racists because we did not supported him.  Why do you think I won't vote for BO?  The use of the race card demonstrated to me that he lied about being a uniter, not a divider.  That was his main theme, and if he could throw that away, I knew the man was worthless.  There were other stuff he did too, but the race card is the reason many Hillary supporters left him and won't come back.

    Parent
    "You" were told (1.00 / 2) (#110)
    by Ennis on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 12:12:39 AM EST
    you were being racist because the vast majority of African Americans perceived several specific actions of the Clinton campaign and surrogates to be racist.

    Generally, I trust their perception on those things.

    Parent

    I find this a strange comment, besides (none / 0) (#111)
    by MarkL on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 12:14:06 AM EST
    being unhelpful.
    Were you unable to decide these questions for yourself?

    Parent
    Of course (1.33 / 3) (#138)
    by Ennis on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 03:38:07 AM EST
    .....but the opinion of the vast majority of African Americans was a pretty good confirmation of my opinion.  

    But then, there are people that believe African Americans are not capable of figuring these kinds of things out for themselves.  Usually Republicans.

    Parent

    the vast majority (5.00 / 2) (#147)
    by huzzlewhat on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 06:20:06 AM EST
    "But then, there are people that believe African Americans are not capable of figuring these kinds of things out for themselves.  Usually Republicans."

    The vast majority of African Americans are much like the vast majority of any other kind of Americans -- most of the country's population don't hang out on political blogs or do extensive background reading to find exact quotes and the contexts of those quotes. Most of the country's population figure these things out for themselves based on what they see on the news, filtered through the media, or hear second hand. Those who feel that the Clinton campaign was selectively quoted and misrepresented by the news media are blaming the media for carrying that off-base narrative to the general public, and blaming the Obama campaign for encouraging that narrative to go viral.

    Parent

    Right (none / 0) (#165)
    by Ennis on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 09:38:11 AM EST
    Hillary starts out with the support of most African Americans, and then suddenly loses it because they were all duped into thinking there was racism used on the Clinton side.  Uh, huh.

    Parent
    Duped? (none / 0) (#168)
    by huzzlewhat on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 10:48:43 AM EST
    I think that the vast majority of all Americans still think that Bill Clinton's "fairy tale" statement was about the Obama campaign as a whole, rather than about Obama's opposition to the war. I think that a majority of Americans still believe that Hillary Clinton's RFK statement was an outrageous prediction about the prospect of Obama being assassinated rather than an observation about about primaries lasting until June. And I believe that most Americans form their opinions of the candidates based on those beliefs.

    Parent
    And I think you are a banned user, (none / 0) (#172)
    by MarkL on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 01:20:32 PM EST
    come back to spread trouble with lies.


    Parent
    What? (none / 0) (#173)
    by huzzlewhat on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 04:20:58 PM EST
    Are you responding to me?

    Parent
    What? (none / 0) (#175)
    by Ennis on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 04:37:08 PM EST
    Differing opinions are "lies and "trouble."  

    Curious......

    Parent

    The vast majority (none / 0) (#174)
    by Ennis on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 04:36:02 PM EST
    of citizens did not think the "Fairy Tale" statement was racist.  It was simply a tasteless attack on Obama's abilities and the vision forth in his "change" strategy.

    What people perceived as racist was statements directly related to race - like "Jesse Jackson,"  "wouldn't be where he's at if he were not black," and "hard-working white people."

    Also, the whole issue of his "un-electability" was groundless by any measure than race.  Many people rightly took that as code.

    I could be persuaded it was not racism if it were not for the fact that the vast majority of blacks perceived it as such.  Their racism detectors are more keenly tuned than my own.

    Parent

    "Do anything" was also successful (none / 0) (#52)
    by nycstray on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:19:19 PM EST
    You still see that being brought up. Especially with her participating in the convention by the 'bots.

    Parent
    I think BTD's point is that (none / 0) (#20)
    by Edgar08 on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:42:13 PM EST
    The media will turn against Obama if he tries those tactics against McCain.

    But that doesn't mean he shouldn't be using the tactics described above.

    Parent

    McCain made a playbook (5.00 / 4) (#49)
    by nycstray on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:17:57 PM EST
    He paid attention to what they did to Hillary. I wouldn't be surprised if Obama tried stuff and McCain countered most attacks just fine.

    Parent
    well, (5.00 / 12) (#55)
    by ccpup on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:25:49 PM EST
    McCain already effectively knee-capped the Obama campaign on the "McCain is a racist" theme and McCain is calling NBC on their Obama Lovin' coverage with a very public letter demanding an explanation as to why Andrea Mitchell is reporting Obama Campaign chatter as "fact" eg. McCain "cheated" at the Faith Forum.

    Whenever Obama dips into his bag of tricks, McCain is there with a stick to knock it out of his hands.  Right away and very publicly.  

    I get the sense the Obama Campaign is in a bit of a disbelieving fog right now because everything that "worked" for him before is now falling flat and their plummeting poll numbers have a lot of worried SDs ringing up and demanding "what in the he** are you guys doing over there?!?!"

    Parent

    Exactly (5.00 / 6) (#69)
    by nycstray on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:40:26 PM EST
    Heck, I get the Obama campaign emails and they are the same as the primaries. McCain and the Republicans are not stupid. Nor do I think Americans are. McCain's smack downs will work.

    That's the prob with a thin resume. Nothing to fall back on after you've used your bag of tricks.

    Parent

    They also paid attention (5.00 / 4) (#89)
    by oldpro on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 11:31:27 PM EST
    to what Hillary did to him...and doubled down on the inexperience theme...and it's working, just as it did for Hillary.

    From the 3 am phonecall ad, it was all downhill for Obama after that.  Because Hillary couldn't ram it home against this Dem primary candidate, she couldn't go as far as McCain and Rs will.

    Remember, too...the last-minute undecided voters went against Obama.  They will again.

    Parent

    They don't have the media fighting with them as (none / 0) (#30)
    by mogal on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:51:06 PM EST
    they did with Hillary.

    Parent
    I'm surprised... (none / 0) (#65)
    by OrangeFur on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:36:39 PM EST
    ... at how effective McCain's "celebrity" attack has been. When I first saw an ad with crowds cheering "O-ba-ma!", I thought it was risky. But it seems to have worked.

    I still give Obama the advantage in this race, precisely because the GOP is fighting the worst uphill battle since 1976. But what should be a blowout is turning into a squeaker. Not only that, the GOP hasn't even tried using the more explosive Rezko/Wright/Ayres business. Maybe they'll overreach with it, but if they do it carefully, it could be quite damaging.

    I can't think of much that Obama has managed to do these last two months. The McCain = Bush approach has felt half-hearted and inconsistent to me. And going on vacation and staying there when the Russia-Georgia conflict erupted allowed McCain to own that issue.

    I guess 1976 turned out to be a close election too.

    Save the best for the end (5.00 / 1) (#80)
    by Prabhata on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 10:57:16 PM EST
    Don't give the opposition time to recover.

    Parent
    Unfortunately, it's worse than 1976 (5.00 / 0) (#93)
    by BrianJ on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 11:39:04 PM EST
    Jimmy Carter had truly unfathomable leads in July-  Gallup had him ahead 62 to 29, while Harris showed him up 66 to 27.  And Carter would have lost with 13,000 reversed ballots in Ohio and Mississippi.

    Barry's already in those straits, as the election now is in "Swing Vote" territory.  According to 538.com, giving each state to the candidate most likely to win it, Obama is ahead 273-265... and that lead depends on his 51% chance of winning Colorado, which 538 shows as a tie:  48.8-48.8.  With about 2,130,000 votes in Colorado, that means that Obama's lead cannot be larger than 1000 votes (ie, 0.05%).

    Barry's margin of error is completely gone.  And there's no sign of reversal.

    Parent

    and look at Carter's VP choice: (none / 0) (#113)
    by MarkL on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 12:21:57 AM EST
    rock solid, experienced.

    Parent
    Barack or Obama (none / 0) (#114)
    by waldenpond on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 12:32:50 AM EST
    Jeralyn has requested only the candidates names be used.  McSame is approved as it is a campaign strategy.  Thanks.

    Parent
    And even in '76 (none / 0) (#127)
    by Landulph on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 01:35:55 AM EST
    It's generally believed that Ford would have eked out a narrow Trumanesque win had he not semantically liberated Poland in their last debate. Basically, Carter nearly blew what should have been a post-Watergate 20+ point landslide. His asinine "lust in my heart" playboy interview didn't help matters. And it's a funny thing: polls show Carter did worse than McGovern in '72 among college students and upscale liberals, the quintessential "New Politics" constituencies (McGovern himself later admitted voting for Ford, as did my Dad, the one and only Repub he ever voted for--he sat out '80 and has never forgiven himself). In short, Carter lost a large chunk of the Democratic base. Memory serves that Carter ran as a non-partisan outsider who happened to be a Democrat by an accident of regionalism, and that he refused to campaign with local Democratic candidates for fear of staining his "reformer" tag. The present parallels are just too scary.

    Parent
    Paris Hilton ad struck a nerve (5.00 / 2) (#157)
    by Fen on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 07:24:12 AM EST
    I'm surprised at how effective McCain's "celebrity" attack has been.

    I'm not. Looking at Obama's record, or lack thereof, its no wonder he was attacked as "famous for being famous". Axel should have seen that coming.

    Parent

    See you made much the same observation (none / 0) (#91)
    by frankly0 on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 11:37:50 PM EST
    I made in my own comment, but beat me to the punch.

    (I know I should read all the other comments before I make my own, but it never seems quite to happen).

    Parent

    Two young writers enamored of (none / 0) (#107)
    by Xanthe on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 12:07:31 AM EST
    Obama - but okay - they're believers.

    This is my favorite:

    [B]arack Obama has been proving himself the most party-focused presidential candidate in recent history - POSSIBLY EVER.

    Huh?

    Who's the greybeard they speak of that Obama didn't "elevate" to reassure us of his commander-in-chief credentials?  Wes Clark?  (Nice!)  and who is the Clinton operative hired meant to heal divisions in the Primary?  Patti Solis?

    The last sentences:  In other words, strong parties aren't the problem - they're the solution.  And NOW THAT HE HAS ONE OF HIS OWN, O is determined to prove it.

    Why didn't we think of that - that strong parties aren't the problem.  OMG - thank God he's here.    

    Ezra will have a great track record (5.00 / 1) (#109)
    by MarkL on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 12:10:20 AM EST
    by the time he's 18 (or whatever): wrong on the two biggest issues of the last 5 years, and in national forums, no less.

    Parent
    Ezra's way over 18 now (none / 0) (#126)
    by Jeralyn on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 01:31:58 AM EST
    He was almost 21 in Boston in 2004. He's also a friend of mine. Disagree with him if you want to but don't insult him please.

    Parent
    Well, I'm stating one fact, and predicting (5.00 / 5) (#128)
    by MarkL on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 01:36:15 AM EST
    one other. He was completely wrong on Iraq, and he appears to be wrong about Obama as well.
    I'm sorry Jeralyn, but unless you put a list of your personal friends up, I can't know who I may or many not poke fun at.
    However, this fall promises to provide a target rich environment, so if you DO provide the list of friends who may not be insulted, I am sure that I can find other, equally deserving targets.


    Parent
    I always roll my eyes when people quote him (none / 0) (#129)
    by bridget on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 01:48:39 AM EST
    that is the net for you ;-)

    Parent
    Oh Man, (none / 0) (#134)
    by Gabriele Droz on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 03:26:36 AM EST
    you're really stretching it here with that post BTD.

    You're starting to be all over the place, in case you haven't noticed.  But I love ya anyway.

    Because you're honest and straight-forward, even when it's uncomfortable.

    Nevertheless, Obama is in a pickle, and I do not know how you could still position him as the winner, as we've not even begun to experience what the RNC will let loose on him ONCE he has become the definite Democratic nominee.

    It's going to be a few thrilling 6 weeks, before we all come to recognize the reality:  Obama will tank amidst the Republican onslought of things held back so far.

    Hmm (none / 0) (#154)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 07:21:07 AM EST
    I quote a post from 2006 that is utterly consistent with what I say today and I am all over the place?

    Excuse me, that makes no sense.

    Parent

    Bran McCain as the next Bush, but (none / 0) (#149)
    by oculus on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 06:27:41 AM EST
    then vote for the FISA revise.  Boomerang.

    McCain is doing better because (none / 0) (#176)
    by Ennis on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 04:39:30 PM EST
    he's consolidating his base.  Unfortunately, part of the Democratic base is still sulking because they didn't get their way.