In any case, CO and VA are obviously the states to watch this cycle.

Barack Obama's campaign will call next week for the creation of a new commission to revise the rules for selecting a presidential nominee in 2012 with a goal of reducing the power of superdelegates, whose role became a major point of contention during the long battle between Obama and Hillary Clinton.

The commission also will be urged to redraw the calendar for 2012 to avoid starting the primaries and caucuses so early, and also to look specifically at assuring more uniform rules and standards for those caucuses.

Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said the campaign will ask the national convention delegates in Denver to approve a resolution approving the establishment of a 35-member Democratic Change Commission. The charter would authorize the Democratic National Committee chairman appoint the commission soon after the election and ask them to report back by January 2010.

The proposed changes grow out of discussions between Obama's campaign team, officials at the Democratic National Committee and representatives of Hillary Clinton's former presidential campaign, Plouffe said.

The most important change involves superdelegates -- the elected officials and party leaders who have automatic seats at national conventions and are free to vote for any candidate of their choice.

The name of the commission is lame but I a glad to see Hillary's influence oppping up, even if it is a day late and a dollar short.

Not only that but whether or not AA voters are, once again, prevented from voting at all through all the R tried-and-true methods and some new wrinkles we're likely to see this year.

Obama thinks he can win Ohio?

I don't know much about their polling, so can't vouch either way.  But they do have month to month tracking on some questions, and some interesting stuff in the breakdowns.  On healthcare, the economy, and reducing gas/energy prices, and 'fights for people like me' Obama for the most part is ahead but trending down, while McCain is trending up.  On 'shares my values' McCain is actually slightly ahead, but same trend, McCain up and Obama down.

Remember, Obama's big claim to fame in the primaries was that he would win Independents and "Obamacans." How is that working out? I know a couple of polls I've seen show that McCain now has the advantage with Independents and he actually is doing slightly better in wooing Democrats that Obama is in wooing Republicans. Is that a trend in most polls now?

if he wins Iowa and New Mexico and holds the Kerry states, then he only needs only one of VA or CO (NM gets him to a 269-269 tie)

he meant

if he wins Iowa and New Mexico and holds the Kerry states, then he only needs only one of VA or CO (NV [NEVADA] gets him to a 269-269 tie).

that being said, I think there is a very good chance that Obama could lose new hampshire -- which would mean that only Colorado (of the three states) puts him over the top.  

Dems control 27 states: Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin

Ties are in 2 states: Arizona, Kansas