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Obama Unlikely To Pick VP Before Hawaii Vacation

Via Pontificator (who argues for Hillary as VP), the Financial Times reports:

Obama officials say privately it is unlikely a running mate will be selected before the candidate returns from a week’s holiday in Hawaii, which starts this Friday. That leaves about 10 days until the start of the Democratic party convention in Denver.

More . . .

On Hillary:

In spite of ever more feverish speculation about who Mr Obama is likely to choose – Hillary Clinton having made a comeback in the past few days – the decision is unlikely to be leaked. . . . It is even unclear whether Mr Obama has yet whittled his choice down to a shortlist. . . . All are evaluated principally on their ability to help Mr Obama win in November, as opposed to the contributions they might make to an administration.

. . .Asked whether Mrs Clinton is a possibility, Mr Obama says she would be on anybody’s shortlist. But Obama staffers struggle to contain their incredulity when asked if the prospect is likely. In practice, almost nobody will know whom Mr Obama is going to select until he announces it. And that could be someone “from left field”, as one Obama staffer puts it.

The chances of picking Hillary seem nil to me, but maybe Obama will surprise us all. It will be a sign of maturity, judgment and confidence that should reassure every skeptic. As I say though, I do not expect it.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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  • Display: Sort:
    Any chance (5.00 / 1) (#2)
    by Lil on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 09:20:22 AM EST
    that he is seeing how folks respond to Hillary's solo act on his behalf? Is that a dumb thought?

    I hope it is not a dumb thought (5.00 / 1) (#12)
    by ruffian on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 09:35:31 AM EST
    because I had it too.  If this is true

    All are evaluated principally on their ability to help Mr Obama win in November, as opposed to the contributions they might make to an administration.

    then this could very well be some sort of test for her. Not that she should have to audition for the part - she should be the Meryl Streep of VP hopefuls.  I can't think of anyone better to help him win, or to make contributions to an administration for that matter.

    She is so obviously the right choice. Can't believe we even have to have this discussion.

    Parent

    I've been thinking the same thing (5.00 / 1) (#24)
    by DemForever on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 09:52:23 AM EST
    Don't do it Hillary! (none / 0) (#37)
    by Shainzona on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 10:04:09 AM EST
    Do it Hil! (none / 0) (#41)
    by coigue on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 10:09:13 AM EST
    We need you!

    And we will need you in 2016

    Parent

    Again (4.33 / 3) (#42)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 10:17:16 AM EST
    A 68 year old woman named Hillary Clinton is not going to win a president in 2016.  That is just a laughable joke.  Stop it.

    Parent
    Hillary is amazing enough to do it. (none / 0) (#43)
    by Thanin on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 10:23:04 AM EST
    Ah, a loyal BO supporter talking point. (none / 0) (#45)
    by Shainzona on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 10:34:21 AM EST
    And you'll be the first in line to tell everyone what an old crone she is.

    Parent
    Exactly. (none / 0) (#49)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 10:58:12 AM EST
    That line of reasoning vastly (none / 0) (#51)
    by coigue on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 11:23:39 AM EST
    underestimates the impact of her run for the president this year.

    Your cynicism is ugly.

    Parent

    On the one hand, I think the vacation (5.00 / 2) (#26)
    by Anne on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 09:54:38 AM EST
    is a really bad idea - it fits hand-in-glove with Congress going into recess for 5 weeks leaving so many things undone, and I expect the GOP to at least try to make the same kind of hay with the vacation as they did with the recess.  

    You could almost understand a vacation if Obama were up 15 points on McCain, but in a neck-and-neck race it just makes no sense.  Well, unless it's audition time for the VP contenders.  It makes me wonder if Obama was the kind of student who always waited until the last minute to do the project, study for the exam, read the book, ya know?  Easy, breezy Barack.

    And so much for the urgency of general election campaigning, huh?  But it is haaaard work - makes me wonder if Hawaii will be the new Crawford in an Obama administration.


    Sen. Clinton is the only only already (5.00 / 2) (#44)
    by oculus on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 10:33:07 AM EST
    prepared for the VP debate.

    I hate that he's going on vacation (none / 0) (#1)
    by andgarden on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 09:13:32 AM EST
    but there's no reason to rush the announcement--especially if it's some public figure that everyone is already familiar with.

    (Personally, I hope he springs Russ Feingold on us, but I think his public finance reversal makes that unlikely).

    A comment from a prior post is very important... (4.00 / 4) (#4)
    by Shainzona on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 09:24:33 AM EST
    During the primary HRC was urged to quit so BO could get to campaigning against McCain.  Time was of the essence.

    Not so much anymore, though.  He has vacationed twice since the primary - and taken his tour on the road but is not truly campaigning against McCain.  And now McCain is calling on Congress to stay at work and get something done on energy.

    This will come back to bite him in the you-know-what.  And it should.  

    Wonder if BO will do a photo op with his Grandmother in Hawaii...or if he will even visit her?

    Parent

    Yes (5.00 / 1) (#50)
    by Claw on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 11:16:11 AM EST
    BO's relationship with his grandmother is a topic so essential, so in need of snarky O/T speculation, that I applaud you for having the courage to talk about it.  Limbaugh would be so proud.

    Parent
    Oh, and somewhat off topic (none / 0) (#3)
    by andgarden on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 09:21:33 AM EST
    but Obama appears to finally be making an effective shot on TV.

    This ad doesn't even appear on the Obama youtube page, so maybe it's supposed to be under the radar (I do think it's real).

    Parent

    MSM headline (5.00 / 3) (#6)
    by tek on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 09:28:31 AM EST
    Yahoo! News, Obama can't gain any steam in the public polls.  

    Well, this is what comes of the DNC corrupting the primary process instead of letting the voters decide.  Obama should have waited until he was seasoned and the Party should have advised to do that.

    Parent

    Of course, if he picks Bayh... (none / 0) (#5)
    by Shainzona on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 09:26:56 AM EST
    the point about tax "breaks" will become moot.

    And now BO wants to drill offshore - so his argument about gas prices and inflating tires could be viewed as pretty similar to McCain's.

    Parent

    does the fact that he is constantly mentioned (none / 0) (#8)
    by Capt Howdy on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 09:32:57 AM EST
    make him more or less likely.
    I think possibly less.

    Parent
    If Bayh is smart, he'll say NO to BO (1.00 / 0) (#11)
    by Shainzona on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 09:35:23 AM EST
    like all of the rest of the contenders have.

    Parent
    but he seems to be feeding the story (none / 0) (#13)
    by Capt Howdy on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 09:37:05 AM EST
    saw him of teevee this morning.  makes me even more suspicious.

    Parent
    Very good ad (none / 0) (#23)
    by DemForever on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 09:51:48 AM EST
    on the mark

    Parent
    Yeah, I think it is an odd signal to send (none / 0) (#19)
    by ruffian on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 09:45:19 AM EST
    Shades of Dubya - here I am, vacationing in August, no matter what is going on.

    Hope he gets good video of grandma though.

    Parent

    I hope she tells him she's too busy... (none / 0) (#34)
    by Shainzona on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 10:03:40 AM EST
    for any photo ops.

    Parent
    Ugh. (none / 0) (#40)
    by coigue on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 10:08:30 AM EST
    Just...Ugh.

    Parent
    do we think this makes Hillary (none / 0) (#7)
    by Capt Howdy on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 09:32:09 AM EST
    any more likely as a VP pick?
    I say depends on what happens to his number over the next weeks.
    how loooow can they go?
    the lower the more likely is VP Hillary says I.


    To me it does (none / 0) (#14)
    by ruffian on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 09:39:54 AM EST
    I think he does not want to pick her, for many reasons, and has been waiting to take off in the polls to the point where he can make a clear case for picking someone else.  Every poll that comes in says otherwise though.  I think he may end up backed into a corner.

    It is still a long shot probably, but still some glimmer of hope - more than I thought a week ago.

    Parent

    I posted an article (5.00 / 2) (#21)
    by pie on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 09:48:22 AM EST
    in anothere thread that was written by Fineman about the thension between the two camps.  At the end he talks about Hillary's big donors and says they continue to be "mystified and annoyed" by the Obama campaign's attitude toward her supporters.  He talked to one:

    "It's not that we're being dismissed," she said. "The Obama people are perfectly happy to have our support. But their attitude seems to be, `we can win without you.' And I guess that's why none of us is going from rah-rah Hillary to rah-rah Obama."

    One disgruntled seaside bundler does not a crisis make.

    Still, there ought to be some way to make her happy, and it's probably in the best interest of the Obama campaign to find it.

    I say "probably," because his camp's theory is that too much butt-kissing of older generation power brokers will ruin his message, which is that he represents something wholly new and refreshingly uncompromised.

    But between them, Bill and Hill have gathered a lot of voters in their time, and that should still count for something.

    The problem is that it's just not one disgruntled seaside bundler, now, is it.

    Parent

    Obama has spent the last month (5.00 / 1) (#30)
    by TimNCGuy on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 10:02:18 AM EST
    wiping the shine off that refreshingly uncompromised image all by himself and it doesn't seem to be bothering him or his supporters.

    Parent
    Sure doesn't. (5.00 / 1) (#36)
    by pie on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 10:03:41 AM EST
    Instead, they continue to take out their anger and loathing on the Clintons.

    Parent
    That one disgruntled seaside bundler (5.00 / 2) (#32)
    by ruffian on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 10:03:01 AM EST
    Speaks for a good chunk of her 18 million voters, not to mention Bill's.

    I think Obama has to pick her, or be prepared to win without her supporters.  That seems to be the calculation.

    If it had been the other way around, Hillary would have probably had to make the same decision, and I think she would have picked Obama in a heartbeat.

    Parent

    Obana needs HRC's (5.00 / 1) (#46)
    by BackFromOhio on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 10:39:14 AM EST
    big donors and her vote-getting abiity. He's not wanted to admit it.  I think, perhaps, Obama's dive in the polls over the last week is requiring his campaign to rethink the VP slot.  The decline includes states that were supposed to be part of the new map, including Missouri, where he was 1 point behind McCain last time I looked, and Montana, where he was behind by 4%.

    As I commented over the weekend, the fact that MI and OH are in play bodes very poorly for Obama without HRC on the ticket.  He needs to shore up the old map, as the new one is not, IMO, going to go blue to the extent that would be needed if the Dems lose OH and/or MI in November.  

    Parent

    The other question is whether she wants it now (none / 0) (#27)
    by DemForever on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 09:54:46 AM EST
    If he keeps struggling, she may see an opening for 2012

    Parent
    she could run as VP (none / 0) (#28)
    by Capt Howdy on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 09:58:08 AM EST
    and still have that opening.  might even be better positioned.

    Parent
    Running for president (none / 0) (#33)
    by samanthasmom on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 10:03:40 AM EST
    after being the VP choice on a losing ticket? Ask John Edwards how that turned out.  8^)

    Parent
    you have a point (5.00 / 1) (#38)
    by Capt Howdy on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 10:04:24 AM EST
    but Hillary is no John Edwards

    Parent
    of course (none / 0) (#35)
    by Capt Howdy on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 10:03:41 AM EST
    I think it would take something pretty terrible for her to mount a challenge against a dem incumbent.


    Parent
    As I've said before, (none / 0) (#29)
    by samanthasmom on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 10:01:52 AM EST
    I think she's already turned it down, but if I'm wrong and he asks her now, I think she'd be foolish to accept. Her best chance at being president herself, and I hope she hasn't given up on that idea, is for him to run without her.

    Parent
    I doubt she has been asked (5.00 / 1) (#39)
    by Capt Howdy on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 10:04:58 AM EST
    but the signals have been pretty clear.

    Parent
    HRC might do what's best (none / 0) (#47)
    by BackFromOhio on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 10:40:59 AM EST
    for the country rather than for herself politically.  Something we all admire about her.

    Parent
    So that means if announces before (none / 0) (#9)
    by Valhalla on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 09:34:43 AM EST
    the convention, it will be during the Olympics, right?  (i'm not clear on the schedules, quite).

    I can't believe he'd have his Vp pick competing with the Olympics, unless he was hoping no one would notice.

    if it is Hillary (5.00 / 1) (#22)
    by TimNCGuy on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 09:49:32 AM EST
    they could do it during the Olympics.  She certainly doesn't need a lot of time to be "introduced" to the public.

    Parent
    I keep hearing this narrative (none / 0) (#15)
    by Lil on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 09:40:01 AM EST
    about not wanting to compete with the Olympics. Are the Olympics really that popular? Secondly, is it possible that there could be 2 big stories going on at once?

    Parent
    are they that popular - yes (5.00 / 1) (#18)
    by Capt Howdy on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 09:44:03 AM EST
    can there be more than one story?
    surely you know by now that if the O can not be THE story he will take his round ball and go home.

    Parent
    They expect a worldwide audience of 4 billion. (none / 0) (#20)
    by tigercourse on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 09:47:30 AM EST
    Last year, 203 million Americans watched.

    Parent
    I mean 4 years ago. (none / 0) (#25)
    by tigercourse on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 09:53:39 AM EST
    The one way to inject energy (none / 0) (#10)
    by Radiowalla on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 09:35:19 AM EST
    into the race is to select Hillary.  No other candidate brings her level of support and her level of enthusiasm.  And I fully agree with BTD that choosing Clinton would be a sign of maturity, judgment and confidence.  A stong nominee is made stronger by picking a strong running mate.

    Yep. (none / 0) (#17)
    by pie on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 09:42:25 AM EST
    There's no excitement otherwise.  My husband continues to argue that the VP spot is a deadend for her, because Obama won't let her do anything of substance.  

    I really hate that thought.  It shows me that Obama doesn't care about the best interests of the country.  No one with a brain believes this is a new generation of politics in ye olde halls of power.

    Please.

    Parent

    Obama doesn't need to pick Clinton (none / 0) (#16)
    by waldenpond on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 09:42:17 AM EST
    She's already willing to campaign for him, so he is free to pick someone else to campaign for him.  It will add more high profile people on the trail to draw crowds and get out his message.

    If Obama announces on Sunday the 17th, he can keep Clinton off that Sunday.  That leaves only Sunday the 24th.  I think media will cooperate with Obama and cover the pre-convention that Sunday, so Obama will succeed in limiting how much is VP pick is about Clinton.

    Put me in the pool for the 17th.  Anyone else have an idea on strategy?

    Comment to Post BTD Cites (none / 0) (#48)
    by BackFromOhio on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 10:44:31 AM EST
    by wavepeac makes a great argument for why Bill Clinton should not be seen as a liability for Obama or the DEMS if Hillary were to be picked as VP, how he would be an asset and the value of his presidency.  

    Another thought on the Obama (none / 0) (#52)
    by oculus on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:05:44 PM EST
    family's vacation plans:  perhaps a poor message to send--we can afford it, sorry you can't.  Many people in the U.S. are downsizing or cancelling vacation plans for this summer due to their personal finances.  High cost of airplane tickets due to fuel costs.  High cost of driving due to gas prices.