The Gender Gap In Florida

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 12:12:06 PM EST
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The State of Florida has 27 electoral votes, more than Indiana (12) and Virginia (13) combined. According to both SUSA, and now PPP, Obama is losing in Florida because is losing women to John McCain:

The numbers show an unusual gender gap, with McCain leading by 11 points among women while trailing by 5 points with men. Last month's results similarly showed Obama doing eight points better with men than women, a trend PPP has not seen in any of its other state by state polling.

Hillary Clinton as VP can help Obama win Florida. She will strengthen him with women and seniors. Yet another reason why she should be the VP pick. Let me add from PPP's release (PDF):

Obama earns just 76% of the Democratic vote, with the folks in his party supporting McCain disproportionately older white females. “The Democrats crossing over to support John McCain are your prototypical Hillary Clinton supporters,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Barack Obama still has some work to do getting those folks on his side if he wants to have any chance of winning Florida.”

(Emphasis supplied.)

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

< New CBS Poll: Voters Do Care About the Veep Pick | Bayh Watch: No Announcement Today or This Week >

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The Gender Gap In Florida | 72 comments (72 topical)

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No she won't! (5.00 / 0) (#2)
by SoCalLiberal on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 12:16:43 PM EST

Don't you know that Hillary is the most evil person ever and will add nothing to the ticket?

(snark)

RE (none / 0) (#4)
by az on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 12:17:48 PM EST

what is worrisome is obama is spending a ton there and his numbers are going south


Yep. As an older, low-information, (5.00 / 0) (#19)
by derridog on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 12:59:36 PM EST

dry you know what, former Hillary supporting woman, I fear to tell the One that the time for chances are over. It's official. If he wants, I'll make him a real nice seal.


if he wants a seal (none / 0) (#32)
by Capt Howdy on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:29:16 PM EST

this one doesnt look busy


: Yes. Thanks Capt Howdy. That's a real good-lookin (none / 0) (#62)
by derridog on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 03:26:06 PM EST

seal.

He's spending a ton in Florida? (5.00 / 2) (#27)
by SoCalLiberal on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:17:23 PM EST

That's bad news because he appears to be declining in Florida.

It seems to me that Obama is banking on taking a bunch of heavily Republican states including many that haven't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964. The idea that he's banking on winning Georgia is foolhardy.


Nunn could help with that (none / 0) (#30)
by Capt Howdy on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:25:17 PM EST

shudder
I hope and pray they dont have us talking about Bayh Bayh so we wont be talking about Nunn until its to late.


: Nunn (none / 0) (#48)
by Ga6thDem on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 02:23:00 PM EST

won't help. Or not enough to matter. Last poll I saw had McCain with a 10 pt. lead in GA. Obama is banking on large AA turnout but it won't be enough to win the state.

: The play on words is too tempting again. (none / 0) (#51)
by Angel on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 02:30:36 PM EST

Nunn
Byah

Re : (none / 0) (#34)
by az on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:33:24 PM EST

He has spent $5 m in FL as of Monday on ads , Mccain has spent 0 .

Recent polls show the numbers moving in favor of Mccain , i wonder why .

Not a good return on investment in my opinion.

When you are alone on the air in a state trying to introduce yourself and the numbers are moving in the opposite direction , maybe first impression ain't working


See my (none / 0) (#49)
by Ga6thDem on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 02:23:54 PM EST

other comment to explain some of the reason why it might be happening.


What number is your other comment? (none / 0) (#63)
by derridog on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 03:29:33 PM EST

: Oops. I see it right below me. Sorry. (none / 0) (#65)
by derridog on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 03:30:11 PM EST

As someone (5.00 / 1) (#47)
by Ga6thDem on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 02:21:12 PM EST

who lives in a state where he is advertising heavily I can tell you a few reasons why that might be:

His ads aren't that good. One he is copying Bill Clinton's ad verbatim but doesn't have the experience behind the claims and I think the claims may even be false.
Overkill. The more he runs the ads the less you want to vote for him. One day I was over at a friends house and they were running during Ellen EVERY commercial break. Honestly, if someone had come to me with a voting machine at that point and told me that voting for McCain would stop the ads, I would have X'ed the R box right then and there. They are just that annoying. The more he puts himself in front of you, the more you just want him to GO AWAY!
The media whoring for him has really turned lots of people off.

The above are just a few. I'm sure there are more reasons.


Remember that NYT article (5.00 / 0) (#3)
by oculus on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 12:17:28 PM EST

that included interviews of numerous elderly Jewish women in FL.? (Dismissed as "anecdotal," BTW.) They expressed reservations about Obama's solidity re Israel and some believed he was Muslim.

Obama needs to get Hillary (5.00 / 2) (#5)
by Radiowalla on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 12:20:49 PM EST

on the ticket with him STAT. If not, I'm predicting that this hemorrhage will only continue.

Those women (5.00 / 6) (#6)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 12:23:07 PM EST

are just a small bunch of paranoid harpy holdouts.

They'll come around. They always do. After all, where else will they go?

I'm /snarking

However, I am all but certain Obama and Co believe this with their hearts.

If they choose Hillary, I'll trade dinner with my dog. And I won't even clean his dish out before I eat it.

Teresa...I hope it is Beneful...that looks (none / 0) (#14)
by PssttCmere08 on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 12:44:16 PM EST

pretty good :) But I think your pup's dinner is safe.


Beneful (5.00 / 1) (#24)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:12:19 PM EST

is a really good marketing campaign, packaging floor sweepings.

But, regardless, unfortunately for my puppy, he probably doesn't get my dinner and I don't 'get' his.

BTW, we feed Pinnacle duck and potato, or "duckie food" as my labbies know it.


My dog eats turkey, vegetables, (5.00 / 1) (#31)
by samanthasmom on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:25:55 PM EST

and sweet potatoes, and the only way I could get her to try it was to eat it myself first. She's lost 35 lbs and looks great! Maybe I should have kept eating it with her.


my dog eats (5.00 / 1) (#33)
by Capt Howdy on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:31:59 PM EST

cicadas. cant get enough of the stupid things. at first I tried to stop him then I thought what the hell. they are supposed to be high in protein.


One of my labbies (none / 0) (#38)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:40:13 PM EST

eats rotten bark, the other eats cat sausages (uh, if you know what I mean). The cat sausage eater also has a penchant for horse road apples and dead and rotting crabs at the ocean.

Needless to say, mom frequently attends and polices their backyard outings.

Uh, but we're getting way off topic.

Just to be clear, my dogs' 'extra-curricular eating' is not part of the Hillary-pick doggie dinner swapping deal ;-).


Sausages? (5.00 / 1) (#42)
by Bluesage on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:54:37 PM EST

Those aren't sausages - they are tootsie-rolls.
My dog loves em too!


: Conjures up (5.00 / 1) (#68)
by TeresaInSnow2 on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 03:37:26 PM EST

images of Bill Murray, Caddyshack and Baby Ruth Bars in swimming pools.
;-)

One thing I do know after reading these (5.00 / 1) (#55)
by PssttCmere08 on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 03:07:59 PM EST

posts is that all your dogs are eating better than I am, with a few exceptions noted :)


dog diets (none / 0) (#57)
by Molly Pitcher on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 03:14:43 PM EST

My 28-lb Vall is a real foodie. To keep him under 30 lbs., I add raw carrot, apple, and sweet potato to his meals, and toss canned green beans and pumpkin in with supper; he eats enough salmon kibble for a 15 lb dog according to the bag. I'd probably be willing to eat his daily diet if I could switch the salmon for another flavor.


One of the most comprehensive and (5.00 / 5) (#7)
by CaptainAmerica08 on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 12:24:23 PM EST

honest analysis of Obama's weaknesses in the electorate is ..."Dick" Morris. I know what you're thinking. But I'm telling you, if you can look past his statements/opinions on the Clintons, he has very keen political skills when it comes to the candidates currently running. He's already on record as saying O's biggest and only problem to date is white women over 40. Historically, suburban women between 30 and 50 actually make up the majority of the mythical "swing vote".

: Well, they're older and wiser at it (none / 0) (#64)
by Cream City on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 03:30:03 PM EST

since they got the vote before we did here. At least England, Canada, et al., had close to full suffrage -- and so did dozens of countries -- before we finally got full, federal suffrage in 1920. That we were so slow with it tells us something.
All hail our first, Western states. No surprise that Jeralyn is nearby the territory where women voted in 1869. (Disclosure: I'm descended from wild, wild, Western women -- or "strong-minded," as they were called.)
Btw, thanks for your factoid. It's fascinating.

Hillary could have easily (5.00 / 4) (#8)
by Grace on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 12:32:04 PM EST

won Florida. As a VP pick, she might help Obama win Florida.

Obama without Hillary is not going to win Florida. He just won't.

: and if he doesnt win FL (5.00 / 0) (#37)
by Capt Howdy on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:39:38 PM EST

can he win? I guess there is some secret plan to win Idaho, Montana, Georgia and Utah.

Florida was weird back in February... (5.00 / 5) (#9)
by p lukasiak on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 12:36:44 PM EST

when I did my analysis of sexism in the electorate based on SUSA's 50 state poll.

In the vast majority of states, women were far more likely than men to stick with both Clinton and Obama when each was matched against McCain. (On average 1.6% of women supported Clinton against McCain, but McCain against Obama, but 11.3% of men supported McCain against Clinton, but Obama against McCain).

Florida was a complete anomoly -- there, among men, Clinton had a 5 point edge over McCain, and Obama had 9 point edge. But among women, Clinton beat McCain by 13 point, but Obama lost to McCain by 12 points -- a massive shift in female voter preference that was not seen anywhere else.

Interestingly (5.00 / 0) (#13)
by RalphB on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 12:43:00 PM EST

if prior elections can be used as a guide, I would expect some of the male vote to move to the GOP column before election day. A coming home effect that always seems to happen fot the GOP.


think that could have anything (5.00 / 1) (#20)
by Capt Howdy on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 12:59:49 PM EST

to do with the shabby treatment by Obama and the DNC?


: Nawwww. (5.00 / 2) (#23)
by Valhalla on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:12:03 PM EST

Now stfu and send Obama money!

The people in Florida elect a (5.00 / 4) (#36)
by Grace on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:38:34 PM EST

lot of Republicans to various offices. The only Democrats I've ever seen win there on a consistent basis are the "folksy" kind of Democrats. They have to be down to earth, plain-speaking politicians to have any chance at all in the state.

Lawton Chiles (their last Democratic governor who served complete terms) walked the entire state to get elected the first time. I already mentioned on another thread that Bill Nelson (Democratic senator) had his whole family standing at a major intersection waving signs thanking people for their votes the first time he won an elected office. Obama lacks that common touch.

: Boy. Does he ever! (none / 0) (#66)
by derridog on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 03:33:15 PM EST

Then your analysis was quite solid (none / 0) (#10)
by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 12:37:45 PM EST

: Isn't it always? (5.00 / 2) (#12)
by p lukasiak on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 12:42:54 PM EST

On second thought, don't answer that! ;)

These voters have moved on (5.00 / 1) (#17)
by lmv on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 12:54:28 PM EST

I don't think picking Hillary will help in FL. While she would have won the state herself, her strongest supporters have moved on and Obama's problems are self-made.

FL/MI debacle
Jewish voters unease (see the Jewish-American press) about campaign donations from Palestinians and some of Obama's associations
women with long memories

You'd be asking these voters to support Hillary and ignore the top of the ticket. I'm not sure how well that would work.

Forget it (5.00 / 2) (#28)
by Miri on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:19:58 PM EST

"Hillary Clinton as VP can help Obama win Florida."

Hillary cannot help Obama win Florida or any other state.

Yes, Hillary could win Florida. She could also win Arkansas. But she can't make her supporters vote for Obama.

There are lots of people like me who will not vote for Obama because they don't want him as president. It doesn't matter who is on the ticket.

VP pick is just window dressing.

or (5.00 / 2) (#29)
by Capt Howdy on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:23:31 PM EST

this pig is going to need more than lipstick.


: more lipstick? (5.00 / 2) (#35)
by ccpup on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:37:38 PM EST

try some curls, a Versace dress, a pair of heels and ... oh, forget it.
That pig ain't gonna fly.
Yeah, even I'm thinking "what?"
:-)

And Obama's camp knows this. (none / 0) (#41)
by TheJoker on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:52:06 PM EST

That is why I believe Sebelius is in the top 2 or 3 prospects. It's clear that O has been thinking these two from very early on.


: Can Obama (5.00 / 1) (#43)
by Bluesage on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 02:01:28 PM EST

Really pick any other woman than Hillary without it being seen as another slap and losing even more women voters? What exactly would Sebelius bring to the ticket that Hillary would not? Now, I don't think his ego will ever let him offer VP to Hillary but I also think he really doesn't need to tick off more women.
He would be better off with Shumer who I had never thought off just because he is monumentally irritating and no one would want to listen to him on a regular basis.

I can't see Obama winning (5.00 / 0) (#39)
by Grace on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:43:58 PM EST

in any state where bowling, mud bogging, and hunting are popular sports.

definitley not bowling (5.00 / 0) (#44)
by Capt Howdy on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 02:05:15 PM EST

with his threat to rip out the bowling alley in the WH


: Yes, that was a great way (5.00 / 0) (#53)
by miriam on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 02:42:50 PM EST

to show middle America what he thinks of them. The kid is clueless.

Mud Bogging? (none / 0) (#40)
by CST on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:48:33 PM EST

Never heard of that one...

Does this mean he will win in places Basketball is popular? In which case, North Carolina here he comes...


sen. obama would do well (5.00 / 1) (#71)
by cpinva on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 05:29:13 PM EST

to stop any and all advertising, until just before the election. simply put, the more people "get to know him", the more empty and annoying they find him. that doesn't mean they'll necessarily vote for mccain, they just won't vote for obama.

realistically, sen. obama has boxed himself in; by claiming to be a new and completely different kind of politician, he's limited his choices as far as potential vp's are concerned. to pick someone perceived as "old school" would invite legitimate accusations of hypocrisy on his part, to pick someone "new school" would invite equally legitimate accusations of a total lack of experience on the ticket.

the sen. is, i'm afraid, hoist on his own petard.

again, why should sen. clinton save sen. obama from his self-inflicted wounds?

RE; (none / 0) (#1)
by az on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 12:14:58 PM EST

i am beginning to see your point.

That's very strange (none / 0) (#11)
by Dr Molly on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 12:42:36 PM EST

I was tempted to say 'PUMA Effect', but why would it be restricted to Florida?

FL's population is older. (none / 0) (#15)
by CaptainAmerica08 on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 12:44:54 PM EST

Also, I've heard that the (5.00 / 1) (#16)
by zfran on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 12:52:32 PM EST

Jewish vote is not solid yet as some are worried about Obama's Israel position, albeit, they really don't know if his support is solid. I was speaking with some religious friends the other day and they were speaking of this. Don't have stats, but I would think it would be the older jewish women who are more concerned then men, only because they would admit it more readily then men.


Jewish relatives, friends, and neighbors (5.00 / 2) (#26)
by Cream City on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:13:44 PM EST

especially -- I'm in a very orthodox Jewish emigre neighborhood -- also seem to have seen things in the huge Berlin rally that bring back a history that is hardly in the past for so many of them. I don't know why that would surface more with women, though. But it could be a contributing factor.


Now that you mention it (5.00 / 2) (#45)
by Coral on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 02:06:22 PM EST

I've been feeling for the past few days that the Berlin rally hurt him. Not because of McCain's celebrity ads, but because of the historical echoes.


Of course.... (5.00 / 4) (#52)
by miriam on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 02:39:50 PM EST

Historical echoes is a good way to describe it. When I watched Obama's speech I had an eerie sense of deja vue and it was not pleasant. He and his campaign keep making these mistakes because either they know nothing about history or they chose at their peril to ignore it. I have a persistent sense that Obama believes he is inventing the wheel for the very first time.


I didn't want to raise that. but (5.00 / 1) (#54)
by Cream City on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 02:54:47 PM EST

thought so as soon as I heard about it in advance. Not the city I would have picked -- Paris, London, i.e., Allies would have been better.

But I think that the polls show that the entire European part of the trip was problematic. Iraq, yes, we're at war there -- although then the refusal to see wounded troops without campaign staff proved problematic, too. Because the Pentagon had to point out that Senators on "fact-finding" missions don't bring presidential campaign staff to hospitals.

And that raised the realization that the European part of the trip was not -- or at least was not promoted and explained as -- "fact finding." It was campaigning. And campaigning belongs back here . . . where McCain went to a grocery store and talked with actual Americans about prices.

Not that a weekend overseas would be enough to counter years by McCain. But a weekend trek to Iraq was all that Obama ought to have done -- not a victory lap already around Europe.


And let's not forget the phallic symbols :) (5.00 / 1) (#56)
by PssttCmere08 on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 03:10:16 PM EST

: Well, the Eiffel Tower is a turn-on (5.00 / 3) (#60)
by Cream City on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 03:25:00 PM EST

but the Tower of London, with the beheadings -- not so much.

I think the European trip would (none / 0) (#70)
by tree on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 04:36:54 PM EST

have been OK if it was just seen as Obama meeting with foreign heads of state. He blew it with the big speech in Berlin. It played into voter perceptions about his campaign being all about what a great speechmaker he is. People don't vote for a Presidential candidate because they think he'll make great speeches while President. They want to feel that he'll institute policies that will make their lives better. The Euro trip was more "just a speech" reinforcement.

And for the life of me, I never saw how stupidly and pointlessly pissing the German government off, by originally insisting on speaking at the Brandenburg Gate, showed anything other than an amazingly idiotic foreign policy.


I totally agree. I mean what was he thinking? (5.00 / 3) (#69)
by derridog on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 03:38:56 PM EST

A rally with thousands of screaming people in Germany in front of the Victory column, a monument to Prussian militarism?

Plus, his poster was unnerving to me. I'm an artist and teach art and art history and it looked like a 1930s Social Realist Nazi poster. Is there a way to post images on here? If so, if someone would tell me how, I'd show you.


you mean this one (none / 0) (#72)
by Capt Howdy on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 05:37:56 PM EST

: That's the one. I wish I could post some German (none / 0) (#73)
by derridog on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 06:34:56 PM EST

ones. If I drag them on here will that work or not or will it screw something up for Jeralyn?

Once again (none / 0) (#18)
by standingup on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 12:54:31 PM EST

the election is Obama's to win or lose. We know what the numbers are at this point and the Republicans haven't even hit full stride in their campaign against him. Why even add to the risk of losing by not choosing Clinton for VP? We know he has the support of his movement no matter what move he makes so why take a chance by allowing this to be too close come November?

Two types of women IMO (none / 0) (#21)
by andgarden on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:06:36 PM EST

downscale southern white women that Obama has trouble with everywhere, and older Jewish white women. The latter are an easier get, as they tend to be some of the strongest Democrats in America. This is why I think the dark horse of VP Chuck Schumer is so interesting--if implausible. He relishes the role of attack dog, and I am SURE he could figure out a way to win Florida.

Wow! Chuck Schumer, hadn't heard (none / 0) (#22)
by zfran on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:09:37 PM EST

him as even a dark horse! Isn't he too left to have the desired effect of Obama's campaign?


Nope, I invented him as a dark horse (none / 0) (#25)
by andgarden on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 01:12:50 PM EST

Personally, I would argue that there are only two people who know better how to win an election in America: Bill Clinton and Karl Rove.

The real miracle worker in 2006 wasn't Rahmbo, it was Chuck.

Too left? Not really. No more so that Hillary Clinton. If you want a VP who's--ahem--"ready on day one" to be chief attack dog, few (other than Hillary herself) can compare to Chuck Schumer.


: Heh (5.00 / 2) (#74)
by lilburro on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 07:07:20 PM EST

talk about snubbing Hillary!
"No - I want the other Senator from New York."

: You've got something there (none / 0) (#46)
by Coral on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 02:08:43 PM EST

: Not presidential material, IMO. As it was said (none / 0) (#50)
by Angel on Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 02:28:28 PM EST

below, too irritating.

Oh for heaven sakes... (none / 0) (#76)
by weltec2 on Thu Aug 07, 2008 at 03:24:20 AM EST

Chucky can make me jump up and sing Hallelujah! one instant... but then the very next instant he pi$$e$ on my parade! What's up with that? No, he's too inconsistent.


That's not just in Florida... (none / 0) (#75)
by weltec2 on Thu Aug 07, 2008 at 03:09:46 AM EST

It's also in Arizona where my dad is and in Southern California where there are a lot of old gray-haired Hillary supporters who feel the same way... or so my friends tell me.