She brings a mandate.

She brings unity.

She brings toughness, experience, and uber-wonkness.

Of course, this also begs the question why Obama is not leading McCain by colossal margins already, given that the GOP is supposed to be so hated. The answer, I fear, is that the GOP is still the morally ascendant party in America. It sets the terms of the discussion, be it on taxes, the role of government, free market-worship, or national security. The Democrats have not come up with a challenge to that ideology, they only promise to implement it more effectively, more competently. But running as GOP-Lite is a recipe for defeat, and a big reason why Obama could very well lose.

-- Large number of undecided WOMEN.

-- HUGE number of undecided Hillary supporters.

If a mandate is attainable, it's critical.  I wish Obama seemed more serious about getting things done.  I anticipate that in the fall McCain will lay the burgeoning do-nothing-Congress repuation onto Obama, and that the onus will be on Obama to explain A) why Congress sucks now B) why they won't suck in 2009.  That's a huge challenge.  Shoring up support is actually important goshdangit.

In the space between the end of the primary season and now, we've had a lot of time to take the measure of the man without reference to Clinton - all on his own, without the ability to monitor her positions and mirror them.  He has no loyalty to core Demcratic values, in my opinion, and even if what he is saying today is better than what McCain is saying, I see no reason to trust that he will even hold those positions if he sees some political benefit to chucking them.

Pile on the rejection of Bill Clinton, the deliberate accusations of racism, the ego-that-knows-no-bounds, and I'm sorry, but picking Hillary for VP will not do it.

You are making the same mistake Kerry made in 2004. Banking on disgust with W. and the GOP to carry the day. Has Obama broken 50% in a poll? I certainly don't think I've seen a good one for him since Feb.

It's too early for a poll to signify shoo-in.

Obama is either tied or 5-6 points ahead in the polls. It is August.

This is a shoe in?

"I love him this much," said Senator Clinton holding her arms apart.
"And I love her this much," said Senator Obama holding his thumb and index finger apart. "And Bill loves me too."

Lots of folks are pointing out Kerry's lead at this time in the 2004 election. Obama is not Kerry; he is magnetic and has lots of qualities that Kerry does not. This goes both ways: Obama is missing a lot of experience on his resume.

19 percent are under McCain's column and 24 are undecided.  These numbers mirror what voters told pollsters during the primaries.  In fact only 46 percent of those supporting BO and McCain say that their mind is made up.  The rest are saying that their support is soft and could change their mind.  I don't see what BO can do to change the dynamics.  It seems to me that Hillary's supporters know BO much better than other voters because they already rejected him and knew they would reject him at the end.  If my logic is right, McCain will get lots of those supporters and some may not vote at all. BO is not a shoo-in.

With this race essentially tied, the conventions have the potential to make a huge difference.  If the Democratic Convention turns into an egotistical Obama worship fest (and it very well may), it could hurt his candidacy.  On the other hand, if the GOP Convention turns into a Zell Miller, conservatism loving, ball of anger orgy, that will hurt McCain.  

I think last week was really damaging for him. Some poll showed that most people think he played the race card with his "dollar bill" comment. And many of his supporters went on TV and accused the Republicans of being racist (because of phallic symbols), and that will turn off a lot of people.  

And I think that the Republican attacks are going to become a lot more damaging after the convention.