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By TChris, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:26:48 PM EST
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Sorry, BTD. Dan Schnur assures us that Big Ten states will control the outcome of the election.

[A]s the election draws closer, expect the travel itineraries of Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama to mirror closely that of the Northwestern Wildcats. ...

[more ...]

The relationships Mr. Obama built for the Iowa caucuses (Hawkeyes) will probably pay off for him in that state in November, and his campaign may be able to swing Indiana (Hoosiers and Boilermakers) for the Democrats for the first time in recent memory. But Mr. McCain’s campaign sees opportunities in the historically blue states of Wisconsin (Badgers) and Minnesota (Golden Gophers) and is banking heavily on the unpopularity of local Democratic officeholders in Michigan (Wolverines and Spartans). Joseph Biden’s Scranton roots may offer his running mate some protection in Pennsylvania (Nittany Lions), but as was the case four years ago, it is becoming more likely that this election will be decided in Ohio. So as much as “Change You Can Rely On” or “Country First,” an equally helpful slogan for both campaigns could be “Go Buckeyes.”

Schnur arges that the race may depend on Obama's ability to connect with us hick Midwesterners.

But the more the race converges in Big Ten country, the more important it will be for him to find a way to connect with the Wal-Mart shoppers, the Nascar fans and those for whom “tailgate” is a verb to be employed before their favorite football team takes the field on Saturday afternoons.

How well does John McCain connect? Even Nascar-watchin', Wal-Mart shoppin', tailgatin', beer-Swillin' Big Ten fans know when we're being fed a meal of pig with lipstick sauce. Big Ten fans aren't happy with the last eight years. Four more of the same is not an attractive option. Barack Obama doesn't need to connect in Big Ten Country. He just needs to remind voters that the few changes John McCain wants to make are for the worse.

Big Ten fans want the economy to improve so they can afford football tickets. As a population, they'll give a majority of their votes to Obama.

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    See! (5.00 / 1) (#2)
    by Steve M on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:32:39 PM EST
    I am always telling BTD that the Big Ten is the superior conference.

    How many SEC states will go blue?  Hmmm?  Although "go blue" is a dirty phrase in my book.

    Just Florida (5.00 / 1) (#4)
    by Molly Bloom on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:44:51 PM EST
    You heard it hear first.

    Bill is coming down to campaign for Obama.

    Parent

    I don't know (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by Makarov on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:34:27 PM EST
    how realistic it is, but a recent poll showed them tied in the Sunshine state. Hillary has been to FL twice for Obama already. If the Big Dog comes down, maybe that will cinch the deal.

    Parent
    Why is it (5.00 / 1) (#5)
    by standingup on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:44:58 PM EST
    the Big 12 gets no respect?  Year after year, all we ever hear about is the Big Ten and the SEC ;-)

    I happen to think two of our states will get a lot of attention this year.  Missouri and Colorado could still be important.    

    It pains me a great deal to say this... (5.00 / 1) (#6)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:49:30 PM EST
    ...but there is also a Big 12 "school" in Iowa.  

    Parent
    But that's not change (5.00 / 4) (#9)
    by Steve M on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:59:59 PM EST
    It's more of the Ames.

    Parent
    GOL (Groan Out Loud) (none / 0) (#12)
    by ruffian on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:07:59 PM EST


    Parent
    Now that was funny! n/t (none / 0) (#24)
    by standingup on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:09:04 PM EST


    Parent
    Oops! (none / 0) (#25)
    by standingup on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:13:36 PM EST
    My mistake but no harm intended.  

    I did go to the game last year when they played in Columbia.  The Cyclones played well and we played terrible.  It was too close for comfort.

    Parent

    The real battleground is ACC schools. (5.00 / 1) (#10)
    by Southsider on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:01:50 PM EST
    Well, actually not.  GA (GTech) SC (Clemson) and NC (Duke/UNC/NC State/Wake Forest) are solid red, MD (UMCP) and MA (BC) are solid blue, so I guess that just leaves VA (UVA and VTech) and FL (Miami, Florida State).

    (Go Terps!)

    SEC still Rocks (5.00 / 1) (#23)
    by tnjen on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:01:50 PM EST
    ...even if the VOLS forgot to actually, you know, study or perhaps even learn their new offense before playing their opening game. Sheesh! :(

    The Vols? (none / 0) (#33)
    by jeffinalabama on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 08:08:25 AM EST
    They still in the SEC?

    just kidding, Auburn plays UT this year...

    there's a slim chance Alabama might flip, according to what I'm hearing. Unlikely, but still a chance, nonetheless.

    Parent

    Just barely (none / 0) (#34)
    by tnjen on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 01:53:32 PM EST
    ...lol. You know what's worse? Just about everybody in the SEC looks good this year...well except us.

    Where would bama go?

    Parent

    for Obama, sorry about mixing football (none / 0) (#35)
    by jeffinalabama on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 02:02:56 PM EST
    and politics...

    Parent
    Nah that's the point (none / 0) (#36)
    by tnjen on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 02:52:41 PM EST
    ...of the thread. I should've been quicker on the uptake when you used flipped. (duh) In my defense, I hadn't had my first full cup of coffee yet. :)

    So Bama may really go Obama? How? Even with extra voters the only way I can see it happening is if a bunch of GOPers switch. What are you hearing?

    Parent

    A nice fair tale (1.00 / 1) (#15)
    by koshembos on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:32:24 PM EST
    Obama is doing badly. He seems in serious danger to succeed in losing an election where the Democrats are in the best shape since FDR. To believe that he can win India is as realistic as Bush is. Obama won Iowa because he swapped the caucuses with goons the way Bush did in Florida.

    We better concentrate on winnable states.

    love the positivity!!! (5.00 / 1) (#18)
    by progrocks on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:38:22 PM EST
    keep em coming!!!!

    Parent
    I'm pretty sure Obama would win India (5.00 / 2) (#21)
    by akaEloise on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:54:48 PM EST
    but they don't get to vote.

    Parent
    I was also unaware (none / 0) (#31)
    by Claw on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 06:25:58 AM EST
    That Obama "swapped" the caucuses with goons.  That was a dirty trick.

    Parent
    Obama doesn't need India (none / 0) (#22)
    by Cream City on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:56:16 PM EST
    or the other six fictional states in his mind.  Fortunately.

    Parent
    pac 10 (none / 0) (#1)
    by Turkana on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:32:17 PM EST
    almost solid blue. sec? um...

    Hockey states for Obama! (none / 0) (#3)
    by steviez314 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:44:37 PM EST


    Penn State (none / 0) (#7)
    by ding7777 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:57:50 PM EST
    the 11th member of the Big Ten

    Joe Paterno (none / 0) (#19)
    by Makarov on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:39:53 PM EST
    wanted to form a Big East type conference for decades. Pitt, Syracuse, WVU, and Miami wouldn't get on board with it. When the Big 10 came calling, it was easy to say yes.

    Ironically, the Big East rejected PSU in '82, citing its wish to focus on Basketball.

    Parent

    Why does nobody take Ivy League conference (none / 0) (#8)
    by litigatormom on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:58:21 PM EST
    seriously? ;-p

    Well, I guess I'll answer my own question. Yale (CT), Harvard (Mass), Brown (RI), Columbia and Cornell (NY), and Princeton (NJ) are in important but reliably blue states which will be taken for granted.

    Dartmouth (NH) and of course Penn (PA) will get some attention, I suppose, but not as much as the Nittany Lions.  But don't forget that Penn's near the Main Line and the Philly suburbs, which need to be worked hard. Obama didn't do anywhere near as well there in the primary as he expected to. He needs to rack up big, big margins in Philly and its neighbors.

     

    The Philly burbs will NOT like Sarah Palin (none / 0) (#11)
    by andgarden on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:02:51 PM EST


    Parent
    as a Bucks County resident (none / 0) (#20)
    by Makarov on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:41:31 PM EST
    I will confirm this. That assumes they become educated about her beliefs - against abortion in all circumstances, supports creationism, et al.

    Parent
    I sure hope the elections... (none / 0) (#13)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:13:55 PM EST
    ...don't turn out like a typical Northwestern Wildcat season.  

    I might also add that as an Iowan born and bred, I have no interest in either NASCAR or Sprawl Mart.  I don't like lipstick on my pork products either.  Totally ruins the savory flavor.

    I do, however enjoy the pure, classic, physical brand of football the Big 10 provides.  And the tailgating that goes with it.  

    If it's Ohio again... (none / 0) (#14)
    by Dadler on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:18:13 PM EST
    ...look out.  

    Gearing up for more vote caging in Ohio.

    It will happen.

    well (none / 0) (#17)
    by connecticut yankee on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:37:22 PM EST
    There was just a story that the GOP in Macomb County, MI is prepping to use forclosure notices to challenge voters.

    They love to announce that stuff, dont they? Are they trying to scare people away from the polls?

    Parent

    Yes, (none / 0) (#29)
    by JThomas on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 01:51:14 AM EST
    Ohio St always is in the mix.

    Obama is the first Big Ten nominee since Mondale.
    Unfortunately for Walter he ran into the Reagan juggarnaut.

    Obama has the Hawkeyes,Gophers,Badgers,and Fighting Illini,imo.
    The Wolves,Spartans and Nittany Lions should go his way.
    The Buckeyes,Boilers and Hoosiers need to jump on board.

    And finally, the Big Ten will return to the glory years...and the country.

    Parent

    Remember when we heard (none / 0) (#26)
    by coolit on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:32:44 PM EST
    about redrawing the map?

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10

    That looks like a pretty familiar map.

    And about more than just words?

    Now it seems like Obama might not rescind the Bush tax cuts.  He voted for the FISA bill.  What kind of change agent are we getting?  Where is his history that we can point to.

    Words don't mean anything.  Experience means something.  Why am I considering voting republican?  What is going on?  Why did we do this?  

    the question stands (none / 0) (#27)
    by Jlvngstn on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:52:10 PM EST
    if sarah palin is ready than why this?

    updated 1 hour, 14 minutes ago
    GREAT FALLS, Mont. - Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin will spend much of the next few weeks campaigning with Sen. John McCain, a move that not only capitalizes on the Republican enthusiasm for the vice presidential nominee but also limits her exposure to the news media

    My question is (none / 0) (#28)
    by lilburro on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 11:01:10 PM EST
    WHO is Ohio?  I know Pennsylvania pretty well, I have no doubt the state will go to Obama in this election.  Which is a nice change of pace.

    But Ohio I don't really understand.  It is portrayed as some sort of poorer version of Pittsburgh, extrapolated into a state.  What are the issues that concern the undecided voter there?  I don't think sex education is one of them (and I also hope, perhaps erroneously, that the character assassination attemps of this election will be transparent to more voters after 2000 and 2004).  What kind of voter there steps into the ballot box, not believing in Palin's views on abortion, but casting their vote for McCain anyway (I do think Palin is FAR out there on her abortion stance).  

    What sort of campaign wins these people?  I think the media saturates us enough for us to want to hear the candidates in their own voices (not ads, not mailers).  I think Obama needs to find his own Hillary-esque cadence.  I can just hear her saying, "Sarah PAY-Lin believes THIS.  Sarah PAY-Lin says this."  Obama is simply an overly discursive politician.  Right now, you can't spend hours hitting single after single; you have to hit home runs.  The equal pay for equal work laws are a great example of the McCain campaign's warped sense of justice.  And those laws certainly mean something to people who think hard about their workplace environment and their wages.  

    Whatever.  I hope Obama's meeting with Bill Clinton proves inspiring tomorrow.  Bill can help Obama where he needs it now, obviously.  Even if the Left blogs want to reinvent the wheel...

    Ohio is simple enough. (none / 0) (#30)
    by Fabian on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 03:24:08 AM EST
    You've got the hard scrabble Appalachia.
    You've got the post industrial Rust Belt cities.
    (Gosh there's a lot of history there from the first generation European immigrants to the African Americans who migrated to factory jobs and a promise of a better future from the South.  Oodles of history.)
    You've got the rural folks, most who like hunting and some trapping and like their churches too.  BUT those churches are more likely to be European Protestant and Catholic and such instead American Baptist in the north.

    In the South, you have SinCity, or Cincinnati.  Typical GOPsville, social conservatives and basically Southern in terms of attitudes.  May eventually be dragged kicking and screaming into the Year of the Fruitbat.  

    Columbus is the state capital and home of OSU.  The most white collar of all the cities and probably the most liberal white collars.  However, where there there are yuppies, there will be people insisting on the best schools and the lowest taxes.  So a breakdown of this area would show a red and blue mosaic, not purple.

    The thing to remember about rural folks is that they don't see a lot of governmental services.  They see their land as a source of income and food so losing their property is more than just finding a new place to live.  Don't threaten what little they have(guns, religion, land).  Do emphasize how important they are.  

    There is nothing homogeneous about Ohio and if you know its history, especially its immigration history, it's actually predictable.  You don't campaign In Ohio.  You campaign in one particular region of Ohio at a time.  Meigs County is not Cleveland is not Cincinnati is not Dayton.  

    Parent

    WAC conference here (none / 0) (#32)
    by BrianJ on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 07:34:22 AM EST
    With states ranging from "in the bag for Obama" (Hawaii, Fresno State, San Jose State) to "he might lose by 40 if the weather's nice" (Idaho, Boise State, Utah State).  In between, he'll lose Louisiana Tech but not as badly, and we don't know about Nevada (Reno) or New Mexico State.

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