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Dow Jones Drops 500 Points Today

How much is 500 points?

The 504-point fall is the Dow's sixth-largest point drop ever and was the biggest loss for the Dow since the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

What's next?

Even as investors digested the historic news surrounding Lehman and Merrill Lynch, some were raising concerns about how it could spill over into other parts of the economy. There will be renewed pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates tomorrow at its scheduled meeting, economists said.

More...

Lehman's bankruptcy could put other major financial institutions at risk, said Bethune. "Suffice to say that further bankruptcies of major financial institutions would be a process that the economy cannot support at this particularly fragile juncture of the business cycle," he said.

Risk-adverse investors are likely to move away from U.S. assets, dragging down the value of the dollar compared with a range of foreign currencies, said Joseph Brusuelas, chief U.S. economist at California-based Merk Investments. Already, Treasury bond prices have surged today. "There is a concern about the basic stability of the market going forward," he said.

Question: Are investments in mutual funds and accounts at other stock brokerage houses at risk? How does one know if it's time to panic and sell?

Update: Hewlett-Packard today announced it will cut 24,600 jobs.

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  • Display: Sort:
    Chase, Bank of America, and (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by bjorn on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 06:37:00 PM EST
    Wells Fargo banks are three of the best banks right now with the most reserves...this according to my banker.  He said someone, perhaps even Chase or BofA is probably going to buy Washington Mutual as they are definitely in trouble.

    Mutual funds and stocks?  Hope you all have some good advice.

    I'm telling you (none / 0) (#4)
    by s5 on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 06:42:19 PM EST
    Soon it's going to be THE bank of America. As in, the one and only bank left in America.

    Parent
    What am I missing? (none / 0) (#8)
    by nycstray on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 06:46:24 PM EST
    How can one or 2 majors keep buying without putting themselves at risk?

    Parent
    2 Things (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by Socraticsilence on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 06:54:31 PM EST
    Some Banks and Invesmtnet houses took their hits in the Mortage crisis last fall, selling out and taking losses but also cutting their risk (and thus haivng more capital right now). Secondly, I'm pretty sure its brinksmanship, if a bank consolidates enough the Federal Government will have to back it and prevent it from taking hits.


    Parent
    heh. (none / 0) (#12)
    by s5 on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 07:01:46 PM EST
    So that's the other scenario. BofA and Chase buy everything, then get regulated to the point where banking is effectively nationalized.

    Parent
    Good question! (none / 0) (#17)
    by jerry on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 07:36:45 PM EST
    I suspect it has to do with the way the purchase is financed, and I have no idea how this was financed.

    As an example, when you or I buy a stereo, we pay cash out of our wallets, and we don't declare our new worth to be greater than it was before we bought the stereo.  When one company buys another, often times company A can say, I was worth Xa, I am buying company B which is worth Xb, so now I am worth Xa + Xb, and then issue Xb worth of brand new shares for its new wealth, in effect paying nothing itself and getting investors to pay for the "change in signage."

    Now, a lot of these purchases involve an awful lot of risky investments and liability that would affect your and my bottom line, but don't necessarily effect the big kids.  In the case of Bear Stearns, the Feds guaranteed the buyouts in effect making you and me pay for the risky investments.  Presumably that didn't happen with Merrill Lynch.

    Anyway, it's a good question, and I really have no idea how BofA bought Merrill Lynch and how much longer it can continue.

    Parent

    Is a heavily regulated... (none / 0) (#21)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 08:08:04 PM EST
    ...nationalized banking system in our future? Wouldn't surprise me.  

    Parent
    I don't think so, but at least a REGULATED (5.00 / 2) (#23)
    by steviez314 on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 08:12:15 PM EST
    one would be a major improvement.

    Parent
    SOCIALISM!!! (none / 0) (#26)
    by blogtopus on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 10:57:03 PM EST
    How dare you bring that up in the light of such a tragedy; do you KNOW how many hard-working investment bankers lost their yachts today? /snark

    I get the feeling that liberalism needs to do some shock-doctrine changes of its own...

    Parent

    JP Morgan (Chase parent) (none / 0) (#5)
    by Pegasus on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 06:42:39 PM EST
    has been looking at WaMu.  Rebuffed over the weekend, but we'll see how long WaMu can hold out.  My prediction is not long.  At any rate, Chase is a good place to be right now.

    BOA's cap reserves are pretty darn low after the Merrill buy.

    Parent

    Everything's at risk. (5.00 / 0) (#3)
    by Pegasus on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 06:39:05 PM EST
    Conservative mutual funds should be fine, but beyond that I recommend cash.  Or a pile of gold bullion and a shotgun.

    Kidding, mostly.

    Yeah (5.00 / 1) (#11)
    by Socraticsilence on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 06:55:53 PM EST
    You know its going to be really screwed up if we get to election day and Ron Freaking Paul looks to be the person who had the most sense on the economy.

    Parent
    But i'm having an article published (5.00 / 2) (#18)
    by Salo on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 07:50:21 PM EST
    in an art magazine!  Just had it confirmed by the editor. It's about an architectural exhibition in St Louis.

    So my stock just went up.

    Don't like thinking about it (5.00 / 1) (#25)
    by Militarytracy on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 09:06:20 PM EST
    but as the other world markets open and respond we are likely to drop some more tomorrow.  Our money isn't in the market though now.  It was obvious to me last year that soon cash would be king and so it is.  Soon it will be time for those who were out of the market to start getting back in.

    Re your question (none / 0) (#2)
    by scribe on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 06:38:26 PM EST
    if you gotta ask....

    But seriously:

    No, I'm not pitching panic and would caution against rash moves.  A friend of a friend managed, during the 1987 crash, to panic, sell and buy in such a way that he turned a million dollars (his own money) into a half-million in the space of a week.  He was trying to sell along with the rest of the herd, and then wound up buying back in at a peak.  He was weak-minded and a real herd-follower and it cost him.  Not that he learned much from it.

    The real problem is, the "smart" money has been cleaning up their balance sheets and getting out for over a year, and the collapse we're seeing is the leavings falling in on itself as the problems that caused the "smart" money to leave finally manifest themselves.

    Stay the Course (none / 0) (#6)
    by Paladin on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 06:43:24 PM EST
    LA Times had a good article in the Business Section today. The message is not to panic:

    "The basic rule for investors is to never panic," said A.C. Moore, chief investment strategist for Dunvegan Associates Inc. in Santa Barbara.

    "And never means never."

    "That advice can be hard to stomach when 401(k) plans or personal investment portfolios are taking on water. It may be especially tough today."

    "But for investors whose portfolios are properly diversified among stocks, bonds and cash, selling now would lock in losses and reduce the chances that they can profit when the market eventually rebounds."

    Read the whole thing:

    Link (none / 0) (#7)
    by Paladin on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 06:44:53 PM EST
    Hey Paladin (none / 0) (#16)
    by DFLer on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 07:32:35 PM EST
    I noticed you had trouble with links before. Have you tried it like this?

    Easiest way is to have the url already copied/pasted into your paste jar. (control C for pcs)

    Then, in the comment area, type a word, link "link" or "article"

    Then click and drag over that word so it's highlighted.

    THEN hit the link  icon above and when the box comes up paste the url into it.

    It will look strange in the comment box, but if you hit preview, that's how it will really look, with the link in blue. You can also hit the link in preview to see if it works.

    Hope this helps.


    Parent

    Jeralyn, if I've seen these instructions once, ... (none / 0) (#28)
    by cymro on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 12:11:42 AM EST
    ... I've seen them 20 times. Or more. I've even posted them myself a few times. And I'm sure you've seen them at least ten times more often.

    So ... maybe you could add a prominently placed instructions, or a link to instructions on How to link, on the comment page? Then you won't have to see valuable comment space taken up by comments like this one about how to write comments.

    Parent

    Thanks (none / 0) (#31)
    by Paladin on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 02:17:46 PM EST
    Sorry for the late "thank you," but I had to take off as soon as I posted this last night.  You're right, I've had trouble with linking, so thanks so much for the instructions.  I've printed them out for future reference.

    Parent
    The rule of 100 always is appropriate (none / 0) (#10)
    by steviez314 on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 06:55:28 PM EST
    Take 100 minus your age.  You should have no more than that percentage of your investable assets in stocks.  The rest should be in cash or liquid securities.

    As to risk due to fraud or bankruptcy at your broker, SIPC covers you for $500,000 of securities that might have gone missing.

    However, you are always at risk of adverse price movements.

    Really?? (none / 0) (#14)
    by befuddledvoter on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 07:09:49 PM EST
    Mother is 90.  Should I tell her this?  LOL

    Parent
    On the bright side... (none / 0) (#13)
    by steviez314 on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 07:07:57 PM EST
    while this was the 6th largest point decline in the Dow's history, it WAS ONLY the 104th largest in percentage terms.

    Lehman's stock went to ZERO (none / 0) (#15)
    by Saul on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 07:14:00 PM EST
    Can you believe that.  There was no bail out.  Nothing to bail out.

    What Bloomberg said earlier today was that (none / 0) (#19)
    by Christy1947 on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 07:51:26 PM EST
    about 300 points of today's drop was from one source, AIG, which was down below 3.50 at one point, 65% loss in one day. It's (arrrgh, teeth grinding) not a marketwide drop, apparently, which may be at least some small comfort.

    Sorry, the Dow multiplier is about 9 (none / 0) (#20)
    by steviez314 on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 07:57:04 PM EST
    so when AIG goes down 7 points, that makes the Dow go down 63, or about 12% of today's drop.

    Parent
    Yeah (none / 0) (#22)
    by G Davis on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 08:11:51 PM EST
    It's bad now but if AIG persists on a bail out it could well tip the apple cart.

    I don't know how much of all this is interchangeable paper or real loss though, so if you're in a protected 401 or mutual fund I'd stay put.

    I've always been a big fan of real estate though as folks (including myself) will always need some place to live no matter how bad everything else gets.  So I'm probably not the person to ask about market moves.

    Parent

    my 2 cents (none / 0) (#24)
    by Kensdad on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 08:44:22 PM EST
    mutual funds are held in segregated accounts, so even if the mutual fund company goes bust, your investment will still be there.  as someone stated above, brokerage accounts are covered by SIPC up to 500k...

    now here's my advice:  don't listen to anything that you hear on t.v. especially if the advice is coming from wall street (analyst, strategist, portfolio mgr, etc...)  they only have their own interest at heart.  the idea that you should never panic and always stay invested for the long-term is a wall street canard designed to keep the little guy from getting out when things are bad.  ever wonder why the little guy always gets hit the worst and left holding the bag?  there are times when you should not be invested in stocks.  this is one of them.  the economy is bad and getting worse.  the reverberations from all the financial chaos has not even worked its way through.  the fallout hasn't even hit yet...  how many of these "experts" telling you to "never panic" warned you about the current mess?  none, probably since they were all too busy telling you that the "bottom was in" and that it was time to buy!

    neither candidate knows what to do about the current crisis.  obama blames bush (when he should be blaming greenspan) and mccain says it'll never happen again, but doesn't say what he'll do about the current mess.  both candidates made weak, pathetic comments about the fannie and freddie bailouts when it is a complete outrage that any taxpayer money went into those pigs.  there were plenty of options besides bailing them out (nationalizing them)...  but, of course, politicians never want to offer the bitter medicine.  they want to slink off with a few words about protecting homeowners (total b.s.)

    sorry for the rant!  (not really...)

    Please note (none / 0) (#27)
    by chupetin on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 11:47:17 PM EST
    that Macain's economic advisor is Phil Gramm, who has more to do with this mess than anybody. It would be funny it it wasn't so pathetic.

    WSWS: failure of American capitalism (none / 0) (#29)
    by Andreas on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 12:17:13 AM EST
    The WSWS writes:

    The end of Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch, two of the largest Wall Street investment banks, one week after the government takeover of the mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, marks a new stage in the convulsive crisis of American capitalism. ...

    A sea change is unfolding in the US and world economy that portends a catastrophe of dimensions not seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

    The fall of icons of American capitalism such as 158-year-old Lehman Brothers and 94-year-old Merrill Lynch can only lead to the further discrediting of the "free market" ideology of the US ruling elite, as well as its political and economic system. The spectacle of giants of capitalism drowning in debt piled up over decades of reckless speculation must inevitably discredit the social class--the American capitalist class--which is responsible for the debacle.

    The Wall Street crisis and the failure of American capitalism
    By Barry Grey, 16 September 2008

    and the answer is! (none / 0) (#30)
    by cpinva on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 06:49:02 AM EST
    Question: Are investments in mutual funds and accounts at other stock brokerage houses at risk? How does one know if it's time to panic and sell?

    it depends. the recent and current wave of failures is primarily associated with huge losses in the sub-prime mortgage market, and the ripple effect it's had.

    when you get that annual report, i strongly urge you to skip all the 4-color frou-frou, and go right to the "notes to the financials" section. that's where all the required disclosures are. it is by far the single most important, and interesting, section of the entire report.

    in it, there should be various disclosures relating to loans, notes and accounts receivable. as well, investments should be analyzed to see how they're valued; if it isn't by the "mark-to-market" method, the actual vs balance sheet value may be widely disparate amounts.

    check and see what your fund is investing in. if it isn't involved in the financial markets, you're probably pretty safe, unless it's heavily vested in the buggy whip industry. in that case, i recommend you sell!

    as a rule, diversity = safety. the more diverse a funds investments, the less likely it is to nose dive, if one of them goes belly up.

    i could go on, but i think you get my drift.