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Feds May Bail Out AIG

Reports tonight are emerging that the Feds may bail out AIG by providing up to $85 billion in a bridge loan.

Doesn't that mean we, the taxpayers, ultimately are going to foot the bill? Adding that to what we will have to pay for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, that's a huge sum of money.

The reason apparently is that AIG is just too big to fail.

Thoughts?

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    It's ironic (5.00 / 1) (#12)
    by Manuel on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:00:42 PM EST
    that a Republican Administration is overseeing some of the largest goverment interventions in the markets since Chrysler.  The ground in the debate for limited government has certainly shifted since 1980.

    The irony (none / 0) (#21)
    by christinep on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:08:39 PM EST
    I've been muttering about "Nixon goes to China."

    Parent
    Header: McCain "We Are All Keynsians" (none / 0) (#37)
    by Salo on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:30:07 PM EST
    lol

    Parent
    Me Confused (none / 0) (#53)
    by MTSINAIMAMA on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:44:32 PM EST
    Last night I heard Paulson say that he had not seriously considered bailing AIG.

    Now tonight he changes his tune?

    So he was against the bailout before he was for it?

    Is the Carly HP School of Economics?

    Parent

    Bankruptcy (none / 0) (#61)
    by robrecht on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:53:49 PM EST
    gets peoples' attention.  A year ago AIG was trading around $70.  It closed today at $3.75

    Parent
    Lambert at Corrente had a FANTASTIC idea: If we're (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by jawbone on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:04:06 PM EST
    going to have our federal government take over big, big companies, why not have it take over the health insurance companies??

    Day-ummmm! At first he said, why not take over some companies which would make us money--but, hey, if we have universal healthcare, it will make the entire economy work better--and that would allow a better economy for everyone. IMHO.

    Let's start asking our Congress Critters to definitely take this new approach and apply where it will really, really do some good!

    Whoohooooo!

    Ho ho (5.00 / 0) (#24)
    by christinep on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:10:26 PM EST
    And, Bravo!

    Parent
    So right (5.00 / 0) (#29)
    by TheRizzo on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:16:45 PM EST
    Great wedge to help argue for getting full truly universal health care.  

    Parent
    yes. (none / 0) (#44)
    by Salo on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:33:51 PM EST
    Indeed.   However medical insurance firms will never go tits up.

    Parent
    That's the pre-emptive part of it! Or, rather (none / 0) (#63)
    by jawbone on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:54:42 PM EST
    preventive. It's just applying the Bush approach for foreign powers to the domestic economy.

    If you think some day they could fail, then you just go take 'em when they're still viable and turn them into what you need in the society.

    Simple, see? Easy peasy.

    (I wish.)

    Parent

    This is not capitalism! (5.00 / 1) (#18)
    by Kensdad on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:05:34 PM EST
    How is this type of nationalization any more palatable than what russia or venezuela do?  Why is it that they u.s. just "has no choice" but to nationalize fannie, freddie, AIG, etc.?  this is not the way that capitalism is supposed to work.  using taxpayer money to bailout company after company is infuriating.  to top it off, this is money that our gov't doesn't have and will have to borrow!  by guaranteeing fannie and freddie debt (which is all but official) they have increased the national debt by 50 percent.  how much longer before the u.s. dollar resumes its decline (and this time with feeling!)???  this will end badly.  our government has failed us.  they have headed down a course that will destroy our currency and ultimately destroy the power and influence of the united states.  where is the outrage?  how much farther can these autocrats in the Treasury and Federal Reserve go before people say, "enough!"

    I want Blue Cross and Healthnet nationalized (5.00 / 0) (#52)
    by Salo on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:43:10 PM EST
    The entire edifice of health for profit is sickening.

    Maybe this sets a small example of what's really going on in the US.

    Parent

    The way I see it is that... (none / 0) (#81)
    by patriotgames on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 10:31:26 PM EST
    by bailing out these companies there are more Homeowners and people with retirement packages IN the economy, as opposed to all those former homeowners and retirees being a drain ON the economy.

    Capitalism or no, it makes good economic sense. (at least to someone without an Economics degree)

    Parent

    It works like this (5.00 / 1) (#25)
    by Steve M on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:12:38 PM EST
    The company we know as AIG is actually not an insurance company, but a holding company that owns a whole lot of different subsidiaries.  Many of those subsidiaries are insurance companies of various stripes.

    The insurance subsidiaries, as far as anyone can tell, are solvent and able to function.  The problem lies with a different subsidiary, AIG's financial products arm, which owns a lot of these crappy securities that are now valueless as a result of recent events.  In short, that subsidiary is in much the same boat as Lehman Brothers.

    So I figured the solution is simple: let the financial products subsidiary declare bankruptcy, if it must, and all the insurance companies go on functioning normally since they're separate corporations.  Only it's not that simple.  Because the subsidiaries are all linked to each other through a common parent, and they all report using consolidated financial statements, the creditworthiness of the insurers is directly tied to the well-being of the overall corporate family.  In other words, the insurance subsidiaries don't take a direct hit to their balance sheet if the financial products subsidiary fails, but their creditworthiness takes a serious hit.  And depending on how extended those subsidiaries are credit-wise, some of them may be driven under simply because they can't obtain credit any more.

    So by saving the financial products arm of AIG, the government also saves a large number of profitable insurance companies that would create a nightmare if they all went into receivership.  I still can't tell you if it's a good deal overall, although it's unambiguously good for your humble commentor since AIG is a major client.

    As far as whether the taxpayer foots the bill, not necessarily, because the government is getting something in return for its money: an 80% ownership share in the company.  That includes majority ownership of a number of profitable insurance companies that may get spun off or "re-privatized" in order to realize an immediate return on part of the investment.  And if the financial products arm of the company can be restructured or the damaged part can be amputated, that ownership share may become quite valuable.  In the short term it's not a debt the taxpayers will have to assume just yet.

    Hopefully this is a short,short-term situation ... (none / 0) (#39)
    by santarita on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:30:08 PM EST
    like maybe by this weekend the Fed will find the  knight in shining armor that will come to the rescue.

    Otherwise, I wonder if I can call Ben Bernanke and ask him for a rate reduction on my homeowner's insurance.  And while I'm at it, maybe he can reduce the rate on my mortgage.  One-stop shopping here we come.

    Parent

    Thanks for the explanation (none / 0) (#68)
    by befuddledvoter on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 09:03:17 PM EST
    So, in theory and if it works, this is not "assistance."  Is it more like a loan that can be repaid by AIG and then the government leaves it alone?  Or, is it really like true ownership so that the government owns an 80% interest for as long as it chooses??

    Parent
    Good question (none / 0) (#69)
    by Steve M on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 09:04:56 PM EST
    It's being called a bridge loan, but I think we probably have to wait for all the details to be made public tomorrow.

    I don't imagine that the government is very interested in running AIG for any substantial period of time, though.

    Parent

    I would hope not (none / 0) (#72)
    by befuddledvoter on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 09:07:31 PM EST
    LOL  

    Parent
    my understanding is that it is a loan (none / 0) (#77)
    by jeffhas on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 09:51:37 PM EST
    that is secured with an 80% stake in AIG.  

    The loan needs to be repaid (or restructured) in 24 months...  at an 11%+ interest rate.

    My thoughts are:

    1)The rate is HUGE, this should discourage other companies from thinking they might want to do this too.

    2)If repaid and/or restructured at the end of 24 months, the return to taxpayers seems pretty good.

    1. 24 months is a long time for the credit crisis to pass so AIG can get more favorable lending.

    2. ALL OF THIS IS A LOT OF HOPING...

    ... but in the end, it doesn't seem like such a horrible outcome.  The alternatives were way beyond horrible at this point.

    My question is... would a Democratic administration have handled this differently?... an Obama Administration?

    Parent

    Heh (none / 0) (#79)
    by Steve M on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 10:16:33 PM EST
    I think Bush is basically on vacation letting Hank Paulson run the country.

    I don't think Paulson is doing anything much different from what most of the Wall Street types advising Obama would do.

    The difference between Obama and McCain would primarily have to do with the way they regulate the markets at the front end.  Once a crisis occurs, there's only so many ways to handle it.  It's like, there are different approaches to foreign policy, but pretty much if Pearl Harbor gets bombed we're going to war with Japan no matter what.

    Parent

    Why the Federal Reserve instead of Treasury? (none / 0) (#75)
    by ding7777 on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 09:13:32 PM EST
    Isn't the Fed made up of private banks? So why aren't these private banks providing the $80B loan instead of Treasury?

    And if the Government's $80B is interest-free, it is costing the Government money.  

    Parent

    Is (none / 0) (#1)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 07:34:10 PM EST
    this ever going to end? It seems for the last 7 years or so we're always bailing someone out-airlines etc.

    The bailing-out is to bail us out of a collapse (none / 0) (#80)
    by andrys on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 10:17:20 PM EST
    There's one thing that's very important during times like this.  They cannot SAY how bad it is because then all too likely a panic would result, as loss of confidence is THE factor which can cause a very quick spiral down to where everything is devalued and we are then totally sunk.

      It's considered irresponsible to tell the truth in times like this.  

      I was in a hair cutting place for the first time in half a year and while waiting I used my Amazon Kindle to get the latest NY Times Update to read.  This was about 5:30pm PDT
    and therefore 8:30 Eastern.

      Already, the NYT's latest breathless stories were piled, one above the other, and it was like watching a movie.  It talked of a meeting being called at 5pm FOR 6:30 pm Eastern -- and the meeting was over and the results were on my Kindle (ebook/emag/enewspaper reader) already.  I was fascinated and of course horrified.

      This morning I had to wait 3 hrs for car repairs and at that time I read about all the maneuvering while Treasury said no bailout because they wanted INDUSTRY to take over this time to prevent more companies doing this.  At the same time, the fear was palpable that if no one did anything, at a time when MERRILL LYNCH was in such a bad place it had to sell itself to B of A (and there are vivid stories of ML-staff selling company tshirts-cups with much anger expressed, on eBay), and Lehman had filed for bankruptcy, a domino reaction was a real worry.  If people couldn't borrow to buy, everyone loses in this economy.

      So, read the http://nytimes.com stories to get a feel of the hour by hour actions and some quotes w/o permission to use names.  It's something that just hasn't been so bad in all of Greenspan's life (and he was also responsible for some of this to hear some tell it).

      THEN here is an UPBEAT story from Motley Fool -- and those guys tend to know what they're talking about.  Here is Motley Fool's "Open Letter" today.  It's needed.

     

    Parent

    Arghhh (none / 0) (#2)
    by TheRizzo on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 07:37:33 PM EST
    I wish the government would stay out of this.  If this is too big to fail, then let the private funding come up with the bailout for the company they deem to big to fail.  

    To often the government takes a stand by saying bailouts are done, then three days later they change their stance again and do it anyway.  And I think the private sector knows it.  Right away they started floating out there that the private funding was not going to happen.  All a ploy I feel to try and get the Government to panic and reverse course.

    Its got to stop.  These companies played fast and loose and deserve their own fates.  

    The problem is.... (5.00 / 1) (#5)
    by NYShooter on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 07:43:57 PM EST
     AIG is an insurance co, the biggest there is. And they don't insure houses and cars; they insure the pay-back-ability of all the other banks and lenders who made all those loans that are collapsing worldwide today.

    They are the linchpin, and if they go down, nobody, but nobody, knows where it would lead.

    'They had no choise.

    Parent

    I gather a large part.... (5.00 / 0) (#11)
    by Jerrymcl89 on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 07:58:29 PM EST
    ... of what they insure is guaranteed payout funds of other financial institutions (401K funds and such). Which is probably how they got into trouble, since I don't think an insurance company would have been heavily into the mortgage market, but they are probably insuring companies that are. I don't like the bailout, but I can accept that there might not be a good alternative.

    Parent
    you got that right (none / 0) (#84)
    by NYShooter on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 10:50:51 PM EST
    AIG was heavily involved in the credit default swap business; They could handle the huge potential payout exposure because of its triple A rating. The potential downgrading of its rating would require A.I.G. to post many billions of dollars of additional collateral for its mortgage derivative contracts.
    Because it is a uniquely huge company, with its tentacles in thousands of other financial companies, the unwinding and fallout potential, confirmed by every knowledgeable financial guy on Wall Street, is too horrible to venture a guess.

    Parent
    and (none / 0) (#85)
    by NYShooter on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 10:51:53 PM EST
    financial gal too, of course.

    Parent
    Do we know where... (none / 0) (#27)
    by kdog on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:15:44 PM EST
    bailout after bailout leads?

    I don't pretend to understand the nuts and bolts of all this high finance stuff, but it smells like we are just postponing a national day of reckoning and complete utter bankruptcy onto a future generation, preferably after we all die  fat.  

    If that is the case, that ain't righteous.

    Parent

    There's no such thing as private (5.00 / 1) (#41)
    by Salo on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:31:13 PM EST
    investment.  Or insurance for that matter. Teh Free Market is a bit of a con job.

    Parent
    I've tried on several (none / 0) (#45)
    by TimNCGuy on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:36:01 PM EST
    occaisons on various blogs to get an explanation of what it means to intentionally misspell "the" as "Teh". Can you explain it?

    Parent
    T3h Fr33 M4rI<3t! (5.00 / 1) (#55)
    by Salo on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:44:53 PM EST
    r0xxorZ!

    Parent
    733T $p33k! (none / 0) (#48)
    by Salo on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:40:56 PM EST
    teh.  It's about typing too fast as well.

    Parent
    'Teh' is a superlative 'the' (none / 0) (#58)
    by steviez314 on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:46:24 PM EST
    So, if I said that "I am teh good", that would mean "I am the best".  And "McCain is teh suck" would translate to "McCain is the suckiest".

    Parent
    Oh (none / 0) (#65)
    by TimNCGuy on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:57:01 PM EST
    just the opposite of what i thought. The usage i see the most is "Teh gay" as in "you might catch teh gay" and could never figure out what it was supposed to mean other than to be making fun of anti-gay bigots since it is always being used in tat manner by posters who are gay or supportive

    Parent
    I recall (none / 0) (#64)
    by Cream City on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:56:34 PM EST
    it strrting or at least spreading on Teh Orange Place, as a form of mockery of the over-eager and overly excited commenters who could hardly hold themselves back from spewing their superlatives, so they tended to not proofread their missives.

    Parent
    Yeah... (none / 0) (#33)
    by Thanin on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:21:54 PM EST
    I dont really get this stuff either, so Id also like to know what exactly all these bail outs will do to us.

    Parent
    They were my (none / 0) (#70)
    by befuddledvoter on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 09:06:23 PM EST
    malpractice insurance carrier for years until a few years ago.  Then they suddenly doubled my premium.  No reason whatsoever.  Practice had not changed and I never had a bar complaint.  I then went with NLADA for half the price.

    Parent
    Not an easy choice (none / 0) (#3)
    by robrecht on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 07:39:58 PM EST
    After the beating AIG took today, they got scared and said, we just can't let a financial blue chip fail.  They were looking at a 1k drop on the DOW tomorrow morning and just got scared.  There's no simple answer.  Yes, it sucks.  But only an idealogue could say with absolute certitude that we draw a line in the sand and throw ourselves headlong into another Great Depression.  May happen anyway, but no one wants to precipitate it.

    This was necessary. (none / 0) (#4)
    by ChiTownDenny on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 07:40:46 PM EST
    AIG is too big to fail.  It will probably end up being a smaller co. than it is today.  Stay tuned, more to come.

    I heard the Govt (none / 0) (#6)
    by Jeralyn on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 07:48:21 PM EST
    will take 80% of the company in exchange for the loans. Is that desirable?

    Not bad (none / 0) (#9)
    by TheRizzo on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 07:54:01 PM EST
    If the government, can restructure, downsize and sell it off to a private firm as soon as humanly possible.   Same as I hope they do with Fannie and Freddie.

    I just hate these bailouts as all it does is promote other companies to take massive high reward risks and if things go wrong put up their hands and say help us.  All the while the bloated management that took these risks are cashing in all the way.

    Parent

    Good point.... (none / 0) (#30)
    by kdog on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:17:20 PM EST
    it's a license to steal for any company deemed "too big to fail".

    Parent
    i wouldn't mind these (none / 0) (#47)
    by TimNCGuy on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:38:27 PM EST
    bailouts so much if part of the deal required a "vow of poverty" for every member of the upper management team responsible for ruining the company in the first place.

    Parent
    Actually (none / 0) (#50)
    by Steve M on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:42:02 PM EST
    Hank Greenberg, the guy who most people blame for getting AIG into this mess by getting involved in the credit swap market, is probably one of the biggest losers in this whole thing because he got a huge stake in the company when he left, a stake that rates to lose a ton of value as a result of the government buyout.  So there's a little bit of karma in the mix.

    Parent
    yeah (none / 0) (#54)
    by TimNCGuy on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:44:45 PM EST
    but i bet he doesn't end up poor, right? does he get to keep hus past salaries? I want him and the others to end up as poor and their workers will.

    Parent
    Well (none / 0) (#59)
    by Steve M on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:46:25 PM EST
    There's never quite enough karma to go around.  But most of the workers are probably going to get to keep their jobs thanks to the bailout.

    Parent
    because (none / 0) (#62)
    by TimNCGuy on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:54:08 PM EST
    we are bailing them out. Now let's talk about the management at Lehman Bros. and their employees and investors.

    Parent
    I wonder if it is like Lehman? (none / 0) (#74)
    by befuddledvoter on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 09:12:59 PM EST
    Workers did not get cash bonuses promised.  They got shares of stock for years and years.  Now those shares are worth nada!! Same thing happened to workers for Polaroid.  Over the years low level workers recieved shares in lieu of cash bonuses.  They lost everything when Polaroid failed.  Really a shame.

    Parent
    In principle (none / 0) (#10)
    by robrecht on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 07:54:10 PM EST
    I would say no.  But if we're facing something like the Great Depression someone with Obama's ideas could use it and Fannie and Freddie to help create the structure to help people buy homes rather than speculate in the housing market.  See his economic speech today.  Who knows, maybe we'll need another FDR.  I hope not, but if we do, Obama's more likely to come through than Sarah McCain.

    Parent
    Fewer absentee landlords (none / 0) (#66)
    by Cream City on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 09:01:16 PM EST
    would be fine with me in my 'hood, where they take tremendous advantage of students, and do so to the poor elsewhere in my city -- and they take tremendous advantage of we-the-neighbors who have to deal with the detritus of poorly maintained properties.

    We're still dealing with the detritus of the property flippers, who made my life hellish for years here (one such property was next door).  So there for ya is a good side to the end of the over-inflation of the housing market.  

    Maybe there will be a good side to the current mess.  I would like to see a silver lining in our clouded future about now.

    Parent

    Getting the 80% will at least give the Gov't (none / 0) (#19)
    by steviez314 on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:05:45 PM EST
    some upside if this all works out, like the Chrysler warrants the Govt got years ago for their loan guarantees.

    But I think you're going to have to look really hard to find this in the fed's statutory authority.

    Parent

    No. (none / 0) (#28)
    by ChiTownDenny on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:16:12 PM EST
    But the alternative was less desirable.  A hefty price AIG has paid to stay alive.  That sends a message to the market too.

    Parent
    Sounds like a Bridge Loan with an (none / 0) (#78)
    by santarita on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 09:54:43 PM EST
    Equity Kicker.  Used in high risk transactions.  The last thing the lender wants is to exercise the warrants to actually become the majority stock holder.  It does put the Fed in a commanding position although one that it doesn't want to be in.

    Parent
    Yes that is desireable and (none / 0) (#93)
    by inclusiveheart on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 07:10:04 AM EST
    the loan is set at something just over 11% which incentivizes them to not only pay it back, but pay it back quickly - this is the kind of deal we should have made with Bear Sterns rather than handing them cash to make them somewhat whole and allowing Morgan Stanley to buy them at a capitalized cut rate.  In theory each American should own 2.5 shares of Bear Sterns, but the Fed just gave that money away free of charge.  It was a poor decision and only encouraged others to continue their risky practices because they figured the Fed would just give them a hand out when they got into trouble.

    This deal is fine for the short term.  The next thing we need to do is re-regulate the financial industry and start enforcing anti-trust laws again.  Those two efforts would help prevent these massive meltdowns.  Of course, it is a riot to see Mitt Romney on tv this morning saying that this kind of government intervention is a good thing as he has been about as anti-government intervention as they come.  That is what we have to hammer home in this election about the total failure of Republican governance which basically allows people to run around unchecked by government and when they get themselves into trouble they are all for giving them money free-of-charge to save them - you can't expect the Fed - taxayers - to bail you out when things go south if you won't play by some basic ground rules at the start - and we have to make sure that there are no more free lunches served by the Fed.  This deal is a step in the right direction.  Of course, the Fed probably only thought to do this deal this way because they knew they'd start to run out of money if they didn't start finding ways to get it back and replenish the ever more empty coffers.

    Parent

    Hopefully, this is a stopgap measure... (none / 0) (#7)
    by santarita on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 07:52:24 PM EST
    From the various reports, AIG is not insolvent but has a liquidity problem, which could be cured in the near term.  

    I hope no one talks about the government interfering too much in the affairs of business.  It looks like the government is business now.

    Or...business is now government? n/t (none / 0) (#22)
    by jawbone on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:09:13 PM EST
    Teh same gu tywho runs the Treasury (none / 0) (#43)
    by Salo on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:33:00 PM EST
    probably ran a company once.   so wtbfd about a bail out?

    As long as teh structure and hierachy of society is preserved?

    Parent

    Treasury is scared (none / 0) (#8)
    by koshembos on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 07:53:31 PM EST


    Very scared. And, per Rubini, they need to be and (none / 0) (#20)
    by jawbone on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:08:16 PM EST
    what they're doing is only kicking the can of worms down the road.

    Is BushCo still hoping to make past the election?

    Some commenter wrote today that whoever makes it into the presidency will preside over the worst possible econ situation imaginable--and will sour the public on that pres's party for decades.

    Parent

    This has been a factor (none / 0) (#76)
    by andrys on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 09:31:35 PM EST
    for some/many, when deciding to vote the entire Dem lower ticket but unsure of voting re the presidential slot, because whoever wins that top slot will almost surely fail in a big way because the problems are just overwhelming and the promises made cannot begin to be met in 4 years under the circumstances.

      Therefore, the next president will, in 4 years, see a big backlash vote for that President's party.  So the story goes.

     

    Parent

    Yep, whoever wins in Nov (none / 0) (#86)
    by sarcastic unnamed one on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 10:58:33 PM EST
    will have to deal with this and Iraq/Afghanistan.

    You couldn't convince me to run for potus in '08 for all the tea in china (as me dear old mum used to say).

    Parent

    whoops -- 'backlash against' - not 'for' (none / 0) (#90)
    by andrys on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 01:44:11 AM EST
    Panicked and frozen in place until now (none / 0) (#67)
    by Cream City on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 09:02:30 PM EST
    per many commentators who seem savvy that I'm hearing on the teevee.  This bailout last week would have cost a fourth of what it costs now.

    Parent
    As long as the 80B is paid back, (none / 0) (#13)
    by sarcastic unnamed one on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:01:05 PM EST
    there is no bill to foot.

    Further proof that the Bush administration (none / 0) (#14)
    by shoephone on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:01:39 PM EST
    has no economic policy standards at all. It's a hit and miss, cheery-pick bailout regime. Yes, AIG is huge and it still stinks that the taxpayers will be on the hook for this. Where does it end? How does this bailout not equal bigger government? Can't wait to hear the Bushian spin. And I can't wait to hear McCain and Palin doing a 180 on their messaging with this news. Yesterday it was all "no taxpayer bailouts!" for Lehman. Tomorrow on the GOP stump tour should be interesting, to say the least.

    I feel sucker punched by this.

    I hear what your saying (none / 0) (#40)
    by JBJB on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:30:38 PM EST
    This is technically not a taxpayer bailout as the loan is actually backed by AIG assets (as I understand it so far). AIG is much different than Lehman as it actually has very valuable assets that can be sold to pay back the loan, but they have a huge cash flow problem. The problem with Lehman was the there was no collateral to back up any loan or investment, all they could offer was a bunch of stinky mortgage paper.  

    Parent
    I do understand it's a loan (none / 0) (#87)
    by shoephone on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 11:27:03 PM EST
    and perhaps AIG will be able to repay in full + the whopping 11%, but when, exactly, does the loan come due? And, in the meantime, where does the government get the money for the loan? It's still ultimately taxpayer money, and that is the part that is pi$$ing me off.

    But now I'm trying to read through this thread and assimilate all the good info here while simultaneously watching "Fringe" and well... my brain is not sufficiently compartmentalized to be able to do both successfully!

    Parent

    NY Times (none / 0) (#15)
    by mmc9431 on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:02:54 PM EST
    I got a second e-mail from NY Times. It sounds like it's a definite not a maybe.

    In an extraordinary turn, the Federal Reserve agreed Tuesday
    to take a nearly 80 percent stake in the troubled giant
    insurance company, the American International Group, in
    exchange for an $85 billion loan.


    it's a bridge loan (none / 0) (#17)
    by kulta on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:04:49 PM EST
    which means it is expected to be paid back.  The Fed will sell its ownership back to either AIG or other investors to pay off the loan.  The alternative was a run/panic on its insurance component which is solvent, and which is the backbone of catastrophic insurance, life insurance (annunities) and property /casualty insurance.
    Yes, in the short term, "we" are bearing the moral hazzard in economic terms. Perhaps unfairly but the alternative was just too much of a financial tsunami

    If they had structured the deal (none / 0) (#94)
    by inclusiveheart on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 07:24:19 AM EST
    with Bear Sterns the same way with a high APR loan and some ownership, I would bet that we would not have seen these collapses on this scale now - Wall Street perked up after Bear Sterns because they all just assumed that the Fed would throw cash at any problem no questions asked and asking nothing in return - this move probably won't pump the market back up a couple thousand points the way the Fed likes to see their actions affect the market, but it will I think stabilize the market which is what I believe government's ultimate role should be.  Greenspan loved to drop the interest rate - it seemed to me that he liked to artificially pump the market with government action - that isn't what that good old free market should rely on to keep itself going - they should expect government to provide a framework that creates integrity and stability - and the folks on Wall Street should be left to make the market go up without intervention from the government.

    Parent
    huge government (none / 0) (#23)
    by souvarine on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:09:27 PM EST
    An 80% stake. The era of big government is over, welcome to the era of huge government. Does this mean we have de-facto single payer? How much of the health insurance market does AIG insure or reinsure?


    Not a lot of health insurance, if any at all (none / 0) (#51)
    by scribe on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:42:20 PM EST
    most of their insurance business is in really pederstrian, boring stuff like car insurance, property and casualty, some E&O and D&O (I think), and stuff like that.  AIG's problem (which is one of the pushes for the bailout) is that they have a lot of retail business directly with consumers, unlike Lehman or any of the I-banks.  

    You might have your brokerage account with one of the I-banks, but in that context the I-bank's involvement with your account is more of a bookkeeping exercise - telling you how many shares of X you have, what their worth, and executing the trades you might make (which are, in reality, also bookkeeping exercises).

    OTOH, if AIG wrote your car insurance policy, then they have to not only administer it and adjust claims, but they have to pay on claims.  It's a wholly different sort of exposure.  Moreso, if the guy who drove the car that hit yours is insured by AIG, you're looking to them to pay for the damages - and you have no relationship to AIG other than through that other, careless driver.

    NY Governor Patterson, FWIW, understands this quite well and explained it very articulately this morning on one of the shows, as to why it's vital that AIG survive.  Amazing when a politician actually understands the systems he's charged with governing....

    Parent

    Fumbling (none / 0) (#26)
    by mmc9431 on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:15:40 PM EST
    It will be interesting to hear the Republican spin on this tomorrow. McCain and Bush both stood firmly against gov bailouts just yesterday.

    I agree they probably had no choice in this but they knew it was coming. I don't understand the point of yesterday's gtandstand. This decision wasn't a spur of the moment decision. They had to know of the bailout of AIG.

    well (none / 0) (#34)
    by JBJB on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:26:11 PM EST
    McCain or Obama don't really have any say, this was a Fed decision.  Actually, I think the spin will be that it's not a bailout, but a bridge loan backed by real AIG collateral, which is just true enough.  

    Parent
    It's only a bailout for AIG's counterparties, (5.00 / 1) (#38)
    by steviez314 on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:30:07 PM EST
    which is like, everyone.

    It's closer to a nationalization, without the soldiers and guns.

    At least in Venezuela, they nationalize companies when they're doing well.

    Parent

    If only they would nationalize (5.00 / 1) (#49)
    by Salo on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:41:51 PM EST
    the health insurance market.

    :-) bastards!

    Parent

    This is bad (none / 0) (#31)
    by JBJB on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:20:58 PM EST
    but could be much, much, worse. Unlike, Fanny, Freddy, Bear, or Lehman, AIG has very valuable underling assets that can be sold to pay back the loan, or used to generate revenue streams. As an 80% equity holder, the Fed can actually make money on this deal if the stock appreciates enough. Sucks to be a regular shareholder though (as most 401K holder likely are), as the dilution of the stock will certianly mean the price never rises to the original buy in price than most came in at.

    sorry for typo (none / 0) (#32)
    by JBJB on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:21:51 PM EST
    i meant "underlying" assets

    Parent
    Thoughts? (none / 0) (#35)
    by rdandrea on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:27:24 PM EST
    It pisses me off.

    Sorry I can't be more specific.  It's my gut talking.

    It's my money and it pisses me off.

    This will make the credit unwind more orderly (none / 0) (#36)
    by steviez314 on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:27:27 PM EST
    but it will continue.  There is still too much leverage in the system, and there are still losses to be taken.

    I cannot imagine that we will not have a moderate recession (ignore how the gov't defines it).  The only thing that will actually mitigate the recession is if OTHER countries start cutting their rates.  China just did, and the ECB needs to follow soon.

    It's official they just did it. (none / 0) (#42)
    by Saul on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:31:56 PM EST


    WaMu (none / 0) (#56)
    by JBJB on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:45:32 PM EST
    I think WaMu will find the same fate as Lehman if they don't find a buyer quickly. I am not so familiar with them but I think their core assets are also just primarily stinky mortgage paper. Unlike Merril which has a very valuable trading and broker/dealer business, and AIG with their huge assets and insurance business, WaMu and Lehman have nothing to offer that anyone would want.

    Bcz WaMu is NOT too big to fail. (none / 0) (#71)
    by jawbone on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 09:06:30 PM EST
    And poor Lehmann--if they'd gone bad first, they'd still be an entity. Instead, Bear Stearns got that goody.

    Reminds me of the start of downsizing. The first to go got the best payout offers, the best choice of other jobs in the corporation, and, if they left, the best farewell parties. Later, so many were downsized, no one got a farewell, not even a good luck card. Heh.

    How's Fidelity doing?

    Some guy on NPR yesterday was doing the happy talk of just hold on, you're better off than you would have been outside the market, so just let things settled down and grow again.

    However, if you were close to or in retirement? Touch luck, you're SOL.

    Parent

    Lehman vs Bear Stearns (none / 0) (#82)
    by reslez on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 10:38:53 PM EST
    I don't think it was the same situation.

    "Technically the Fed bailed out JP Morgan (JPM) not Bear Stearns (BSC). The Fed was very afraid of a derivatives cascade, and the Fed made JP Morgan whole on swaps it was holding on Bear Stearns. At $10 per share its pretty tough to argue Bear Stearns was bailed out." (link)

    Parent

    Thank you! Saw chart yesterday which showed (none / 0) (#83)
    by jawbone on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 10:49:37 PM EST
    that one of the initial arguments for rescuing Bear Stearns was that it was an attempt to staunch the bleeding on mortgage instruments (iirc), but the chart showed that Lehmann had more exposure than Bear. So that made me wonder just why.

    But being first sometimes does help, even in failure.

    Parent

    They'll be tomorrow's (none / 0) (#57)
    by mmc9431 on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:46:03 PM EST
    other shoe that drops.

    Between the economy and polls, I've been watching the Cartoon Network a lot the last couple of days.

    AIG Bailout (none / 0) (#60)
    by Doc Rock on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:48:29 PM EST
    How Much of American Property is Underwritten by AIG?

    We just paid our home insurance to AIG bill last week.  I'm ambivalent about a bailout, but sure want my house and contents to be insured!

    Maybe a silver lining??? (none / 0) (#73)
    by stefystef on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 09:08:15 PM EST
    Okay, hear me out.

    Perhaps all this financial crisis will speed up the end of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.  Why?

    Because, where is the money going to come from if they aren't going to raise taxes???  The treasury is already tapped out.  Trying to con the Chinese, Japanese and the Saudis into buying more US Treasury bonds ain't gonna do the trick.  This may also revise the need for regulation.  If you don't keep people's greed in check, it always goes wild.

    Something's gotta give and this failure of a war is too expensive at this point.

    So, perhaps, to save money and keep the taxes in the current place, the next president will have to pull out of the war.

    Any thoughts?  Would love to hear them.

    Further wars (none / 0) (#88)
    by Andreas on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 11:33:33 PM EST
    Perhaps all this financial crisis will speed up the end of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

    No. US imperialism will step up preparations for further wars.

    Parent

    For the public ownership of the banks! (none / 0) (#89)
    by Andreas on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 11:43:13 PM EST
    The WSWS writes:

    The bankruptcy of Wall Street firm Lehman Brothers and the forced take over of Merrill Lynch are the latest demonstrations of the collapse of American capitalism. All the lies and propaganda about the supposed infallibility of the "free market" are now utterly discredited. The people of the US and the world are confronting a financial catastrophe on a scale not seen since the Great Depression.

    What is revealed in this crisis is not merely the recklessness, incompetence and greed of America's financial elite, but the failure of capitalism--an economic and political system that subordinates the needs of society to profit and personal enrichment.

    Who is going to pay for this crisis? Here the US corporate and political establishment agrees: working people must accept a drastic reduction in their living standards to bail out the Wall Street investors and banking executives who are responsible for this debacle.

    No return to the 1930s! For the public ownership of the banks!
    Statement by SEP presidential candidate Jerome White
    17 September 2008

    Back on right footing (none / 0) (#91)
    by Oceandweller on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 06:12:25 AM EST
    Maybe I`m wrong, but since that crash tsarted, Obama is bak on track. He has stopped focusing on Palin and has delivered a very good economical program, honored Bill Clinton etc.
    Palin looks now to be what most people thought a diversion, a GOP "babe" diversion as this very feminist Limbaugh suggested.
    O. was insecure w/women as some Clinton ans were following MCcAIN seeminly out of spite and/or rage on some sexist/misinterpreted comments. The GOP strategists have handed those disgruntled voters a woman who apparently has an ideal resume... if it was not so light and farfetched. About nil foreign experience, -me too when I ski on the Alps can see on a distance France, Italy, Austria and Swizterland, does that make me a european affairs expert. No! wELL SOME cLINTON DIE-HARDS HAVE FALLEN FOR IT. When I say die-hards , I think people more motivated by the individual than by the program of the party. Any how, O. did not know how to get the full democratic party together.
    Well, the Economy, "IT IS ALL BAOUT ME, STUPID" has handed him the road map.
    Fiorina the Hewlett Packard wondergal - Dont ask what means wonder or this close MCain advisor moral will be seriously deflated, deems Palin unfit to be a CEO - mind you no one is fit to be CEO but her ?
    sadly but rightly for our pocket books , Economy is the elephant in the room and reminds everyone who has put us in this mess...
    Lets me see GWB, and his very own pal John McCain the deregulator in chief...

    Some female voters will be hoodwinked by Palin tricks  but I doubt very much will linger at her side.
    The Larry Johnsoniacs who -let it be said what until recent years a republican and should be considred as such will rant as much as they like. the sagging dollar will probably give a deaf lear to their would be listeners....

    Too big to fail? (none / 0) (#92)
    by Pol C on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 06:48:54 AM EST
    Something tells me we need to expand anti-trust and anti-monopoly legislation to cover companies like this. Any company that gets so large and so systemically crucial that it requires taxpayer support when its fortunes go sour is one that needed to be broken up long before then.