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CNN/Time Poll: Obama Ahead in WI, Florida Tied

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 03:52:25 PM EST
Tags: Barack Obama, John McCain, 2008 (all tags)
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A new CNN/Time Magazine poll came out today.

  • In Indiana and North Carolina, McCain/Palin leads Obama/Biden, 51% to 45%, and 48% to 47%, respectively.
  • Obama leads McCain in the states of Ohio and Wisconsin, 49% to 47% and 50% to 47%, respectively.
  • The new poll finds the candidates in a dead heat in Florida, each with 48%.

Bottom line: Factoring in the margins of error, Florida, North Carolina and Ohio remain in a virtual tie between John McCain and Barack Obama. As to the electoral map, CNN says: [More...]

Taking into account these new polls, CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win 233 electoral votes and John McCain 189. There are 116 electoral votes up for grabs; 270 electoral votes are needed to win the White House.
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    CNN/Time Poll: Obama Ahead in WI, Florida Tied | 85 comments (85 topical)

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    So nervous about this... (5.00 / 1) (#6)
    by Thanin on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:01:09 PM EST
    I dont know how well I can take another Democratic loss for president.

    I know. I keep trying to remain pessimistic (5.00 / 0) (#14)
    by coigue on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:02:10 PM EST
    so I don't get my hopes up.

    Coming here sometimes helps with that ;-)

    Parent

    Ha! (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by Thanin on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:05:16 PM EST
    Nice.

    Parent
    This is the same 3-point margin (5.00 / 0) (#9)
    by Cream City on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:01:29 PM EST
    in Wisconsin for Obama since the last poll, as I recall.  A correction to the linked story: It was the closest state in 2004, and it was not by a point.  Kerry won by less than half a point.  That was 11,400 votes, per a source I saw here just today.

    Obama has hardly been here.  I would not count, as the linked story does, on the border areas with Illinois.  And I also would not count on Milwaukee giving such a big margin, with the (Repub) state AG here suing to toss out a lot of voter registrations.  The (Dem) Milwaukee DA joined him today in that campaign.

    ACORN and other groups here have been caught in fraud already, and they may be responsibile for a crackdown at the polls that will cost Dems the campaign.  And they haven't been working at student registration in Milwaukee.  It already is going to be bad at the polls such as mine in a student area, based on what I saw in the primary here last week and on what students say.  They did not turn out at the polls to register, despite a major campaign to get them to do so.

    They can do same-day registration in November, but it could make a mess with long lines that would send some voters home too soon.  And several students with whom I talked, trying to get them to get registered last week, does not bode well.  Almost all asked what day elections are held.  I said Tuesdays.  They said they're already too busy on Tuesdays.  Sigh.

    There would have been a Rethuglican (none / 0) (#17)
    by scribe on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:03:26 PM EST
    crackdown on Democrats having the temerity to vote regardless of whether ACORN or any other group existed.  One of the central tenets of Rethuglican politics is, in fact, to prevent Democrats from voting.  By any means.

    Parent
    Yes, but you're not seeing the suit (5.00 / 0) (#29)
    by Cream City on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:10:40 PM EST
    that the AG filed here -- scroll back for TChris' post on it.  It could have massive impact, far beyond the usual stuff that Repubs pull here.

    On a law blog, and one that wants Wisconsin to stay blue, that post was worth more attention than it got.  And sitting here where I do, reading the major papers here and viewing the media here, the AG could get away with it because of all the coverage of ACORN and others' fraud (and then there is the residual from the idiot son of the AA Congresswoman here, a son who was caught vandalizing a GOP office here last time, etc.)

    Parent

    Well, let's see if we can get TL to bump (none / 0) (#33)
    by scribe on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:13:48 PM EST
    that post so we can tear into it a little more.

    I for one am trying to keep out of the lenders' clutches and cannot get to read everything I'd like....

    Parent

    Looking at TChris' post on the WI AG's suit (none / 0) (#41)
    by scribe on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:23:04 PM EST
    and the linked article, I note that:

    Early voter registration efforts are not usually a priority in Wisconsin campaigns because the state allows voters to register on Election Day, unlike most others. But the Obama campaign is bucking that tradition, sending workers in search of young people, minorities and others who like Obama but may not have voted previously.

    Now, I understand the gist of the complaint - use a technicality to get Democrats disheartened from showing up, then lose the provisional ballots of those who do, etc., but in a state with same-day registration, there is no way a law which requires cross-checking databases is going to work.

    What (other than generic Rethuglican thuggery and more specifically Biskupic looking to redeem his "Rethuglican in good standing by prosecuting the innocent who are Democrats" (calling Georgia Thompson)) am I not addressing?

    Parent

    Search JSOnline.com and Madison,com (none / 0) (#48)
    by Cream City on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:31:57 PM EST
    -- the Milwaukee newspaper's site and the combined site for the Madison papers -- to see some of the ramifications.  According to one column on this yesterday, if my middle initial that is on my driver's license is not on my poll registration, I could be stopped.  If I really care, I probably will get to vote, after I go home and get my spouse or some other voter to be a witness for me.  That will only turn a 20-minute task into a two-hour task.  And I live close to the polls, I have some work schedule autonomy (although less on Tuesdays), and I don't have young children at home on a school night.  

    And I don't know if my poll registration has my middle initial.

    Oh, and I am registered.  If I'm a student at my polling place trying to register on the same day, and if my records that I bring don't match -- i.e., my utility bill doesn't have the middle initial and my driver's license does -- who knows how long it could take, and maybe I have a night class waiting (as many of the 28,000 students atttend at night as do during the day).

    This is what the initial reports are telling us of some of the ramifications of the suit.  I don't know; maybe they're being over-reactive.  But I also don't know what it means that Milwaukee's Dem DA joined the state's Repub AG on this effort today (not the suit but the anti-voter fraud effort).  And at this late date, in a traditionally close state.

    Parent

    Well, if you write it up well, I'm sure TL (none / 0) (#54)
    by scribe on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:49:31 PM EST
    will let you put it up as a diary.  Or as a series of diaries.

    I'm not trying to palm it off, but you seem to have a good handle on the issues and can teach us how to deal with it.  And you might want to cross-post over at Orange Satan's place....  Get the screaming going and all.

    Parent

    Ya gotta be kidding (none / 0) (#67)
    by Cream City on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 05:49:47 PM EST
    No way I go near that place.  And TChris' post is just fine, if TL wants to put it back up.  My writing time goes to my students -- I just come here for air between their papers, in hope of finding a glimpse of the correct use of the apostrophe.

    Parent
    We can always use more diarists here (none / 0) (#87)
    by scribe on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 02:13:49 PM EST
    and, on multiple occasions, I've been quite correct in the apostrophe's use.  

    After all, the crux of the biscuit is the apostrophe.

    And you don't have to go to Orange Satan's if you don't want.


    Parent

    So... (5.00 / 0) (#10)
    by Brillo on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:01:33 PM EST
    We're basically right back to where we were before the conventions and VP picks.

    So much for the Palin bounce. (none / 0) (#12)
    by scribe on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:01:58 PM EST
    Hmm?

    Parent
    Palin hurts GOP ticket in Florida (5.00 / 1) (#21)
    by Cream City on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:06:45 PM EST
    per Hillary Rosen just now on CNN, because Jews are not fond of evangelical fundies.  She thinks it's more winnable now for Obama than she thought before.  Others not so much for Florida.  It's a big and diverse state, probably too hard to call for a long time ahead.

    Parent
    What dominates in the (none / 0) (#24)
    by LarryInNYC on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:08:20 PM EST
    Florida electorate?  Jews or fundamentalist Christians?

    Parent
    The latter, of course (none / 0) (#28)
    by andgarden on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:10:36 PM EST
    But fundies were never going to vote for Obama. Older Jews, in my experience, were a bit fainthearted, even though most always vote D. For them, Palin was a veritable grogger.

    Parent
    Well. . . (none / 0) (#35)
    by LarryInNYC on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:14:02 PM EST
    if Palin juices the evangelicals for McCain and the Jews for Obama, who wins net?

    Parent
    In all honesty, probably McCain (none / 0) (#40)
    by andgarden on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:20:54 PM EST
    There's much more opportunity for Obama with the non-zero percentage of blacks who voted for Bush in 2004, or who didn't vote at all.

    Parent
    and the Hispanic vote? (none / 0) (#72)
    by Amiss on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 06:30:07 PM EST
    You know, I see most of the campaigning here in Florida taking place in Central and South Florida, while I believe the only county to actually go for Obama in the primaries was Leon/FSU. There are many many Indies up here in the big bend and panhandle.

    Parent
    North or South Florida? (none / 0) (#30)
    by Molly Bloom on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:10:41 PM EST
    As a general proposition South Florida is the 6th borough of NY.

    North Florida is Alabama.

    Parent

    Depends on where you are. (none / 0) (#31)
    by ruffian on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:12:45 PM EST
    Central FL, where I am, I would say the fundamentalist Christians are more dominant than Jewish voters.

    Parent
    Heh (none / 0) (#36)
    by Steve M on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:14:24 PM EST
    Pundits on TV always act like Florida is wall-to-wall Jews.  If only!  In 2004, 5% of Florida voters were Jewish.  Of those, 80% (or 4% of the total electorate) voted for Kerry.  Obama isn't guaranteed all those people, of course, but he was going to get most of them regardless.

    There's no question that many Jewish voters will not find Palin appealing.  But even in the best-case scenario, her effect on Jews is worth something like a fraction of 1% of the vote.

    If we had a close election like 2000, of course every single vote would matter.  But the Jewish thing the pundits keep trumpeting is not enough to make a race competitive if it wasn't already.  It's being seriously overplayed; at the end of the day it's just one more small pro-Obama factor in the mix.

    Parent

    And... (none / 0) (#18)
    by Brillo on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:04:25 PM EST
    The impending 'backlash' due to any criticism of her.

    Parent
    The backlash is working (none / 0) (#27)
    by Jeralyn on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:10:29 PM EST
    big time. Her bounce is over with all but Republicans.

    Parent
    I Meant... (none / 0) (#37)
    by Brillo on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:14:47 PM EST
    The 'backlash' amongst women and Hillary voters and whoever else that we've been getting warned about from some quarters everytime Palin is criticized.  

    Parent
    Her luster (none / 0) (#32)
    by WS on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:13:47 PM EST
    is wearing off.  I think there was a Honeymoon period where people were happy that a new woman came on the scene than all the baggage showed up.    

    Parent
    So (5.00 / 0) (#46)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:29:56 PM EST
    is Obama's luster. He's no longer the media darling only yesterday's news. Perhaps they will start discussing the really important stuff now?

    Parent
    Palin.... (none / 0) (#61)
    by Brillo on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 05:08:34 PM EST
    Has gone from being the most highly rated of the 4 candidates, to the least popular, and by quite a few points.  And that's in just the last week or two.  Obama continues to have the highest favorability ratings of the four.  They've barely budged since the dips during the Wright garbage.  

    Parent
    I think the bold-faced and outrageous (none / 0) (#71)
    by jar137 on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 06:28:42 PM EST
    lies are what turned many off, I think.  Every day it's another false statement.  And she does not appear serious.  She's a little too smiley and eager to be able to put people at ease.  

    Parent
    Those (5.00 / 0) (#44)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:26:25 PM EST
    NC numbers are so off relative to all the other polls that it makes me question the rest of the numbers.

    It's probably worth noting (5.00 / 0) (#49)
    by Cream City on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:36:28 PM EST
    from the link that
    The sampling error is 3.5 percentage points in Florida, Indiana, and North Carolina and 3 percentage points in Ohio and Wisconsin.
    Well, those three states can decide the election. (none / 0) (#1)
    by scribe on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 03:55:33 PM EST
    And, FWIW, Team Obama says it's pushing 39 million chips into the pile marked "Florida".

    A lot of money there.

    plus the big Clinton chip. (none / 0) (#4)
    by coigue on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 03:59:43 PM EST


    Parent
    OH and FL somewhat contradict (none / 0) (#2)
    by andgarden on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 03:57:51 PM EST
    other recent polling in the two states. In any case, I think FL may actually be more winnable for Obama.

    Closeness abounds. . .

    Wall street problems do not help retirement funds (5.00 / 1) (#7)
    by coigue on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:01:14 PM EST
    Obama may get some of the over 50s due to greater confidence in Democratic principles on the economy.

    Parent
    With Obama's O-mentum. . . (none / 0) (#3)
    by LarryInNYC on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 03:58:34 PM EST
    if those results are accurate, I expect them to get a good deal better over the next week or so.  Still plenty of time for another see-saw, but he's looking pretty good right now.  At least, in this poll.

    We're on the same roller coaster (none / 0) (#5)
    by andgarden on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:00:59 PM EST
    we were in 2000 and 2004. I just hope the Dem Advantage gets us the few extra points we need this time.

    Parent
    Wow (none / 0) (#8)
    by WS on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:01:18 PM EST
    those polls are making me happy.  

    People are inclined to trust Democrats on the economy and taking on Big Business.  No matter how much McCain runs ads on "reforming Wall Street," he won't get anywhere until he offers something substantive and not warmed over Bush policies of "letting business police itself."

    Obama has to keep hammering on the economy and attack John McCain on his de-regulation mentality and bread and butter issues like health care, his tax rebate plan for the middle and working classes, and education.    

    Why? As Roger Simon put it so succinctly (2.00 / 1) (#38)
    by PssttCmere08 on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:15:01 PM EST
    today...in this climate, the dem nominee should be far and away ahead of McCain at this point...it is basically a tie.

    Parent
    Check this out (none / 0) (#11)
    by scribe on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:01:36 PM EST
    The former publisher of National Review has endorsed Obama.

    It even looks sincere.

    Well written and argued as well. n/t (none / 0) (#22)
    by LarryInNYC on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:07:07 PM EST


    Parent
    Pragmatism and Prudence (none / 0) (#45)
    by daring grace on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:27:19 PM EST
    If only for that passage this would be a good sell for true undecideds who see Obama as potentially anything but.

    Parent
    In my estimation (none / 0) (#15)
    by Steve M on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:02:19 PM EST
    the blogs are way too bearish on Ohio right now.  In my estimation, at worst it is a straight-down-the-middle bellwether state.  Too much Appalachiaphobia, I guess.

    Well, I'm even feeling a little queasy about PA (5.00 / 1) (#23)
    by andgarden on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:07:32 PM EST
    The legacy Democrats are not in love with Obama.

    Parent
    Me too (none / 0) (#34)
    by CST on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:13:51 PM EST
    Headed to Pittsburgh this weekend, getting my talking points ready.

    It's hard to tell the state of the race from talking to people in Boston, hope to get a better idea.

    I think the economy is the one thing that could put PA comfortably over the top for Obama.

    Parent

    Well, (none / 0) (#39)
    by andgarden on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:17:25 PM EST
    take a look here if you're interested in a rundown of the political topography of the state.

    Parent
    Interesting (none / 0) (#42)
    by CST on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:23:16 PM EST
    And about what I would expect from my time there.

    I am a little surprised that Allegheny county has remained constant considering everything around it has been going red.  Although that could be due to the student/tech factor that doesn't exist in the surrounding counties.

    Honestly, I expect Obama to do worse than Kerry in PA.  If for no other reason than that frankly, Ed Rendell was right...  at least from my experience there.

    Parent

    Yup, and there' isn't much room for error (none / 0) (#43)
    by andgarden on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:24:09 PM EST


    Parent
    heh (none / 0) (#16)
    by Jlvngstn on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:02:25 PM EST
    Hmmm.  It would appear that the polls are doing exactly what I thought they would.  And it appears that the economy and palins fade are the reasons.  All this talk about not questioning Palin's readiness and staying after McCain is as I said bunk.  McCain was sinking before Sarah and she was the only reason for the bounce. Imagine if every left blog and the media did not question her readiness?  

    theory is mulch (none / 0) (#24)
    by Jlvngstn on Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 04:41:01 PM EST

    Stay calm and clean.  The Palin bump, not the response by Os camp is the only reason for the bump/  By the end of next week, O will have a slight lead, by the end of next week he will be ahead by at least 4-5 and in 3 weeks he will not look back.  
    People are not excited about mccain and palins star is already fading.  

    Strategists do not freak out and axelrod and crew are doing ground work that made bush win in 04.  your argument is silly being that all O has to do is continue to grow and look more presidential.  3rd term blah blah blah.  Repost this in 4 weeks for me please

    Except for the fact (none / 0) (#56)
    by frankly0 on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:54:53 PM EST
    that your prognostication most certainly did not take into account the effect of the current crisis on Wall Street, because no one anticipated that it would hit at this very moment.

    Before that event, McCain's numbers were holding up quite well, as compared to most convention bounces, where the enthusiasm flagged pretty rapidly.

    Won't it be just a little bit absurd to think that all the attacks on Palin were bringing down McCain's numbers, when those numbers didn't really seem to change much (certainly not as much as previous convention bounces) until the crisis on Wall Street hit?

    And the real problem for all your prognostications is that they don't take into account the effects of other such unknowns as perceived debate performances, gaffes or exposes, and, of course, the attacks of the Republican 527s (as well as Obama's responses to them).

    If Obama's attacks based on the economy now start having an effect, why attribute that to any new approach or formulation he has come up with, as opposed to the fact that it's now riding the back of major economic news?

    The truth is that what you regard as "verification" of your prognostication is really a testament to the inability to predict future events reliably because there are real unknowns out there, as was the meltdown on Wall Street.

    Parent

    it was said, 6 months ago (none / 0) (#59)
    by Jlvngstn on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 05:03:24 PM EST
    and 2 months ago and 2 weeks ago.  I postulated that when the stimulus ran out the economy would tank and the incumbent party always takes a beating.  

    I brought it up again because the stimulus ran out and people still ran up more credit debt which of course does not help the banks.

    527's will have no effect on this race for Obama, the economic conditions and fall of Palin will be the most contributing factors.

    Perhaps you should read a bit of history on past elections and the effects of a horrible economy.  One need not look farther than WJC to get the answer.

    I don't think it absurd that Palin has a 10% drop in favorability.  Perhaps you think the "attacks" have had a depreciable effect and I would love to see the analysis and predictions on that.

    McCain is not a solid debater and for that matter neither is Obama.  I would expect a draw would be great for Obama but my guess is that he has been practicing a hellofalot, if that is the case he will win the debates.

    Again, lots of bloviation here and zero analysis or predictions.  What good is analysis if you hide behind "unknowns".  

    Do you really think the tanking of the economy was an "unknown?"

    Parent

    Sorry but that doesn't make any sense (none / 0) (#62)
    by ks on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 05:15:13 PM EST
    "and 2 months ago and 2 weeks ago.  I postulated that when the stimulus ran out the economy would tank and the incumbent party always takes a beating.  

    I brought it up again because the stimulus ran out and people still ran up more credit debt which of course does not help the banks."

    What's going on with Wall St and some banks has nothing to do with the effect of stimulus checks running out.

    Parent

    Look, (none / 0) (#65)
    by frankly0 on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 05:26:30 PM EST
    no one that I know of predicted that we would have this financial crisis at exactly this time, less than two months before the election. It might as easily have have taken place two months after, or six months after, or six months before.

    Could you please point me to your prediction that this event would take place just before election? If you can't, then how can you pretend to know what you're talking about?

    As far as Palin's numbers going down, that is hardly the point. The real point is that McCain's numbers didn't really go down as with a normal convention bounce until the current financial crisis.

    And, excuse me, what intelligent people do when they realize that there are important unknowns is to refuse to make hard predictions, and perhaps not make any predictions at all. Bloviators make predictions as if they knew what they are talking about when they don't.

    And as far as "change" candidates like Obama winning when the economy is generally in a bad way, that's certainly true, in general. But what has been remarkable about Obama is how unsuccessful he has been at gaining the upper hand even though he's been trying to push that message now for months -- it was at the heart of his acceptance speech, and how long did the good effect last?

    You pretend to know what will happen in the debates before they take place. Yet anyone who has followed those debates understands that there are unpredictable moments that greatly affect the election: Ford's stumbling on whether Poland was allied with Russia; Dukakis botching the "rape" question; Reagan's handling of the question about his age. And who can doubt that Obama's bumbling performance in his last debate with Hillary hurt him badly at the polls? Look at how his numbers went down after this event if you don't believe it.

    And your assertion that the Republican 527s won't have an effect is completely groundless. No one knows what they have in store. If they have anything as potent as the Swift Boater's did, it could be an important turning point.

    In general, you keep pretending that you know something you don't. In any given instance you might be right -- because, again, they are unknowns.

    But even your failure to predict an event that certainly seems to be having an effect -- the meltdown on Wall Street -- shows how little you really know about what is going to happen in this race.


    Parent

    lol (none / 0) (#68)
    by Jlvngstn on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 05:53:19 PM EST
    Really, failure?  What is going on in the race?  You have no clue.  You cannot even predict a simple meltdown in the economy despite the overwheleming credit crisis in the country and its impact on elections historic and current.

    I love your bloviation though.  Still no meat.

    Parent

    you are right frank i did not predict it lol (none / 0) (#70)
    by Jlvngstn on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 06:02:22 PM EST
      jobs (5.00 / 3) (#23)
    by Jlvngstn on Fri Aug 01, 2008 at 11:01:25 AM EST

    will continue to worsen through the end of this year and we will be over 6% easily.  We still have the credit crisis which is separate from the housing crisis that has not flushed out yet.  Our deficit is too high to apply Keynesian principles for a recovery and with higher unemployment and less spending, there will be gov't layoffs as well.  We are in a sour pickle that is moving toward a prolonged recession. Without the 90 billion band aid from the gov't we could call this a recession officially.  they could do 3 more rebates and it won't solve the problems of the economy.  Job creation is the only way to address the ongoing credit/housing crisis and we are cutting jobs at too high a pace.  Job creation programs allow people to work o.t. and simply work which help them pay down their debt which eases the credit crisis.  Without job creation, credit crisis will become much worse and recession will be a long one.  The sickness of the economy is being overshadowed by the steadiness of the market which is stabilized by companies announcing restructures (layoffs) to cut costs and maintain shareholder value.  Look for the market to stumble heavily in Sept and Oct right before the election (more in Oct) and fear the October Monday doomsday scenario.  Had we not gone to war the government ala keynesian philosophy could be investing reserves into infrastructure thus creating millions of jobs and killing the credit crisis in its tracks.  As it stands, we blew that cash and have very limited options to help the american people.  The war was bad on a lot of fronts but the damage it has done to the US financially is bloody awful.  Obama has been overseas building credibility for the debates to come and has some great quotes from foreign dignitaries that he will use in the debates.  He has lost ground because of his being overseas but will regain that and more because he is now safe from foreign policy criticism.  He needs to present a solid economic recovery/job creation program within the next 6 weeks (after all the rebate checks are spent and people are still in debt looking for the right answer which is job creation).  Hillary could help him immensely with that.


    Parent

    Lack of job creation is why Lehman failed lol (none / 0) (#75)
    by ks on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 06:47:43 PM EST
    "Look for the market to stumble heavily in Sept and Oct right before the election (more in Oct) and fear the October Monday doomsday scenario."

    The funny thing about your prediction is that your "analysis" did not include the main reason for the current market stumble but it is amsuing that you're taking credit for a correct prediction when the analysis that led you to your prediction misses the mark about what actually happened.

    Parent

    lack of job creation (none / 0) (#76)
    by Jlvngstn on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 06:58:33 PM EST
    is what is hampering the credit crisis, people will work 2 jobs and OT to pay down their credit lines, we are like that as a nation.  We follow our repub leaders that way.  I talk about the housing crisis in another post and the two go together.  

    Again, where are your predictions?  Where is your analysis?  

    A whole lot of empty rhetoric on blogs and you are a fine contributor.

    Parent

    No (none / 0) (#78)
    by Steve M on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 07:06:41 PM EST
    The credit crisis is the result of a breakdown in interbank lending due to the fact that too many banks have toxic securities in their portfolios and other banks lose trust in their solvency as a result.  It has literally nothing to do with consumer credit issues.

    Parent
    70% (none / 0) (#79)
    by Jlvngstn on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 07:11:00 PM EST
    of our economy is service based, and Lehman is not the only bank with trouble, I believe you might have heard of Fannie/Freddie?  

    Consumerism drives our economy and when our gluttonous appetite slowed down the market burps or hiccups.  

    What is the personal credit situation in the US?  Do you even know?

    Parent

    correction (none / 0) (#81)
    by Jlvngstn on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 07:30:57 PM EST
    lehman is not the only financial institution in trouble..

    Parent
    got cut off (none / 0) (#80)
    by Jlvngstn on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 07:22:39 PM EST
    so as long as you are on the credit crisis and ignoring the housing/mortgage crisis in an attempt to mislead the thread, try wrapping the two together and tell me why had a stimulus.

    of course the stimulus was to keep the economy afloat while the banks and financial services companies went through their write downs and figured how much bad paper they had.  Unfortunately they had a whole lot of bad paper.

    Bad paper is a result of what?

    Parent

    Shhhh.... (none / 0) (#84)
    by ks on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 09:34:22 PM EST
    Please don't confuse our "friend" with the real facts.  It's much more amusing to read his "prison babble".

    Parent
    Patting yourself on the back too much (none / 0) (#60)
    by ks on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 05:07:35 PM EST
    McCain's convention bounce isn't fading fade because the lefty blogs questioned Palin's readiness.  That's nonsense.  His conevntion bounce was expected to fade as did Obama's.  

    Also, before the GOP convention is was questionable whether McCain would have a bounce at all. The reality is that the "Lefty blogs" and some media folks crazed overreaction to Palin helped create Palinpalozza and because of it McCain's bounce probably lasted longer than it should have. It was a terrible strategy especially given that the renewed focus on McCain, helped along by Wall St events, is starting to gain traction which shows that McCain should have been the focus all along rather than the Palin stuff which is and was mostly foolishness.

    Even with all that, the race is up in the air when it should be a cakewalk.  That's some great strategizing....

    Parent

    The reality (none / 0) (#66)
    by frankly0 on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 05:33:33 PM EST
    is that even if Palin's numbers went down, it didn't imply that McCain's numbers would go down.

    Among other things, if the Obama camp is seen as attacking her unfairly (and certainly that was the point of McCain's "lipstick" ad), voters could very well turn against Obama as a result as well.

    It's always the way of negative attacks that they damage both the attacker and the attackee. McCain's numbers themselves seemed little affected.

    Parent

    you are serious? (none / 0) (#69)
    by Jlvngstn on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 05:56:38 PM EST
    The stimulus artificially propped up the economy and most institutions were waiting to see how much credit got paid down and with the stimulus going to groceries and fuel and not towards debt.  Retail sales did not drip dramatcially and will do so in the next three months.  Job losses will continue to spike and will cause further melt down in the credit market.  So yes, the stimulus prolonged the pain on Wall Street and did have an impact.

    Parent
    Remarkable... (none / 0) (#73)
    by ks on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 06:30:35 PM EST
    Yes, the only thing that "prolonged" Lehman, Merrill, Bear, and soon to be AIG, eventual fates was the stimulus package.  You are doing an amazingly creative job of conflating "headline news" with a situation that you clearly don't know much about.

    Parent
    there is no conflation here (none / 0) (#77)
    by Jlvngstn on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 07:00:30 PM EST
    banks like the rest of us were holding out hope that job creation and or the stimulus money would fuel the economy and help with the credit situation.  The fuel pricing killed any semblance of hope.  Lehman was dead months ago though, no question about that.

    You do a great job of telling people that they do not know what they are talking about and an even better job of proving you don't.

    Parent

    Wow (none / 0) (#20)
    by CST on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:05:45 PM EST
    Do these polls take into account the last few days?  If not, and I imagine they don't take today into account at the least, then I think this is pretty good for Obama.  Certainly better than last week.  If this poll is from before Monday then this is very good news for Obama.

    They look to be 14-16 (none / 0) (#25)
    by andgarden on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:08:26 PM EST
    so they're current.

    Parent
    Conducted Sunday - Tuesday (none / 0) (#26)
    by ruffian on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:10:03 PM EST
    Better than last week, no doubt. Can't count on fresh horrible economic news every week, at least I hope not, for the sake of my retirement fund.

    I think it is all about the debates at this point.

    Parent

    no but the culture wars (none / 0) (#47)
    by Jlvngstn on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:30:14 PM EST
    have all but disappeared from the narrative and the economy is going to grind along for the next 3 months making it the top story most nights.  McCain has gained zero traction on his "reform/change" platform and the economy will dictate who our next president is.  Palin was the only reason for the bounce and it is apropos that her star is fading just as the economy completely changes the narrative.  I wonder who did not see this coming?  hmmmmm

    Parent
    Don't bet (5.00 / 0) (#50)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:42:39 PM EST
    on it.

    There will be something else to come along. After the market settles down for a while the media will get bored with the story and more on to something else.

    Parent

    The media may move on (5.00 / 1) (#52)
    by CST on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:47:55 PM EST
    But if this is as bad as everyone keeps telling us it is, I don't know that people will move on.  Too early to tell right now what the real ramifications are.

    I don't know that the market will "settle down" in any encouraging way before November.  Unless you mean crash so far it can't go farther.  I don't think today is the bottom though.

    Parent

    i don't think so (none / 0) (#55)
    by Jlvngstn on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:53:19 PM EST
    I think the end of the month it moves to earnings and retail sales, and then 24/7 jobs.  Layoffs will start to occur with greater frequency and the market will flail along as a result.  I do agree that the market will stabilize some but the jobs picture which is the net of the entire crisis will continue to get worse and will have a much greater impact on the race than the economy so to speak.

    Parent
    I'll (none / 0) (#51)
    by sas on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:46:31 PM EST
    wait for Survey USA.

    What this all comes down to is (none / 0) (#53)
    by kenosharick on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:49:01 PM EST
    another nearly tied race- just as in 2000 and 2004. I am still nervous about repubs/527s dropping some incredibly nasty advertising. We have not seen that yet.

    don't misunderestimate (none / 0) (#57)
    by Jlvngstn on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:55:14 PM EST
    the snooziness of Kerry.  Demos have registered more than 2 million voters this election and Axelrod is playing the ground game this time around.  McCain does not inspire people to get to the polls, he has a bit of Kerry in him that way.  That is why he loved Palin, great bounce but completely unsustainable.  

    Parent
    We (none / 0) (#85)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 10:01:00 PM EST
    heard all about the ground game in 2004. It doesn't work. You are simply going to have to rely on voters getting themselves to the polls and voting for your candidate.

    Parent
    CNN breaking news (none / 0) (#58)
    by kenosharick on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 04:58:28 PM EST
    that Palin's personal e-mail account was hacked and they are up on some website (they did not say where). This is going to look like more unfair attacks on her and will probably give her another bump in the polls.

    This smells of the Rove (none / 0) (#74)
    by jar137 on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 06:36:06 PM EST
    trick of breaking into his own office and then charging that the Democrats did it.  Sadly, it worked.

    Parent
    Its who can get the people out (none / 0) (#64)
    by coast on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 05:19:34 PM EST
    Obama's campaign machine proved pretty good at this during the primaries.  Close polls will not favor Republicans in November.

    I confess to not understanding the polls (none / 0) (#82)
    by glanton on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 07:45:16 PM EST
    Rasmussen was on Fox news two nights ago saying that McCain had opened up a double-digit lead in NC.  In fact, all the news we've been hearing out of the beautiful Tarh Heel state, has been bad news.

    Now this.  If this poll is right Obama needs to start pouring enormous moneys into Mecklenburg County; he may get lucky and see  "Philadelphia effect" spiral out of Charlotte.

    Wow.  If Obama can pull out NC it seems to me that would be part of a veritable Tsunami.  In any case, hard to imagine him winning NC and then losing the election, aint it?  

    All that said, like everyone else, I'm forcing myself to stay cautiously pessimistic.  The GOP is literally capable of anything between now and election day, including an outright play to steal the election.

    ya (none / 0) (#83)
    by connecticut yankee on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 08:12:42 PM EST
    Good news never hurts. Lets hope for more tommorrow.

    Trying to stop the vote (none / 0) (#86)
    by MERJAZ on Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 12:10:18 AM EST
    I've been reading about how it will be difficult to get the vote out in Milwaukee for various reasons.  Don't you have absentee voting in Wisconsin?  In California, and most states, you can vote by mail prior to the election.  In California all you have to do is sign up for it, and your ballot is sent to you through the mail.  You can either mail it in early (which I do so I no longer have to sweat over the polls) or dropped off at any polling place or Registrar's office up to and including election day.  This may be an alternative to voter apathy, since it really simplifies and makes the voting process more accessible to all people.  So please check local voting laws to find out what is required for an "absentee ballot"  This is especially great for people with busy schedules.  Every knows where there is a mailbox.  But the best part, it will leave a paper trail.

    CNN/Time Poll: Obama Ahead in WI, Florida Tied | 85 comments (85 topical)

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