Ras has moved from a McCain 3 point lead for the period 9/10-14 to a tie in the 9/15-17 period.
The Battleground Poll has moved from a 4 point McCain lead in the 9/9-11 period, to a tie in the 9/18 poll (which includes the 9/9 and 9/11 dates, so Obama would be up 4 in the 9/17-18 period.)
The Hotline/Diageo poll has actually shown, imo, the strangest results. While it has Obama up 4 currently - this is no change in the race, in essence for 10 days. In any event, it shows Obama up 4 currently.
Finally, the DKos/R2000 poll now has Obama up 7, 49-42. The trend in this poll is clear as it started in the 9/9-11 with Obama up 47-45. The first two day actually pushed the race back to a tie, 47-47, for the 9/11-13 period. But the last 6 days of pollins, particularly the last 3 days have been all Obama. In the last single days of polling, the DKos/R2000 poll has had Obama up 5, 8 and 8.
Clearly, the extreme defensiveness of the Palinpaloozers notwithstanding, the driving force in the strong move towards Obama has been the economic news this week along with Obama's strong campaigning and perhaps the defining moment of this campaign - McCain's statement on Monday that the fundamentals of the economy are strong. McCain's statement will likely be remembered the same way we remember John Kerry's "I was for it before I was against it" moment in the 2004 election. It has defined this election I think.
But the Palinpalooza rationalizers will insist their work was critical. DemfromCt provides one iteration of the rationalization:
On Palin:
Pew found no lopsided shift of women to the Republican candidate, like Gallup, despite some premature reports that Palin’s place on the GOP ticket had caused a rush of female support to McCain.
There were no such premature reports here. What we saw were the polls that suggested that Palin was divisive and partisan, and a mixed picture with voters.
This is, in a word, silly. No one rational thought any VP choice was going to cause a permanent "rush of female support" to the Republican ticket. This is swatting at strawmen. The argument has been, at least from me, that focusing on Palin instead of the issues was not an effective strategy for Obama and/or his supporters. Indeed, the Obama campaign found its legs precisely when Palinpalooza faded from the Media coverage. To state that any political candidate is "divisive and partisan" is to state that water is wet. Palin had one important lasting effect in this race - she energized the Republican base. Does anyone REALLY believe McCain would be better off in this race without her? Does anyone really believe that Palinpalooza helped Obama? It did not. And the return of issues, especially the economy and the John McCain/George W. Bush connection, as the dominant narratives of the campaign is what has driven Obama to the lead.
Daily Kos has been obsessed with Palin's fav/unfav numbers as if these provide a strong correlation to the topline numbers. But Daily Kos' own polling data demonstrates this is nonsense. What has driven Obama's surge in its poll is the number of people who rate the economy the top issue in the campaign. Driving up Palin unfavorables among certain Democratic voters changes the topline numbers - the ones that matter on Election Day - not one iota.
The economy and George W. Bush did drive the topline numbers.
In the end, this is all water under the bridge - we are where we are and Palinpalooza is basically over now. And I feel confident the Obama campaign is thrilled about that and where they are in the campaign now. It is McCain who now scrambles for a game changer. His last chance will likely come at the September 26 debate.
By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only
