Miami Herald Poll: McCain Slightly Ahead

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Sat Sep 20, 2008 at 10:46:15 PM EST
Tags: Barack Obama, John McCain, 2008 (all tags)

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Update: The Washington Post reports Obama will fight big in Florida, spending at least $39 million in the state. He says if the Dems win Florida, it will be almost impossible for McCain to win the election.

In a Florida poll taken after last Monday's economic tumble, the Miami Herald reports John McCain has a statistically insignificant 2 point lead over Barack Obama.

If you scroll through the graphic of results, you will see that McCain leads on commander-in-chief issues but Obama leads on economic issues. That's good news for Obama because 43% believe the next president's most important issue will be fixing the economy while only 14% think Iraq is the most important and only 12% think managing terrorism is most important.

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Miami Herald Poll: McCain Slightly Ahead | 14 comments (14 topical)

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McCain is in trouble (5.00 / 1) (#1)
by bluegal on Sat Sep 20, 2008 at 10:59:51 PM EST

All of the recent polls have shown a tie in Florida. McCain was supposed to have Florida locked up by now. If he has to spend money there and in NC he's screwed.

Every time FL seems tied, (none / 0) (#3)
by andgarden on Sat Sep 20, 2008 at 11:18:09 PM EST

the Republican ends up winning 52/48. I point you to FL GOV '06.

If I were Obama, I would not be putting all of my eggs in the Florida basket.


and he is not (none / 0) (#4)
by coigue on Sat Sep 20, 2008 at 11:24:01 PM EST

putting all his eggs there.

But he isn't ignoring it either.


Problem with FL is that it's really (5.00 / 1) (#6)
by andgarden on Sat Sep 20, 2008 at 11:27:31 PM EST

hard to poll. The AA response rate is not that good, and hispanic results are all over the map.


I see. (none / 0) (#8)
by coigue on Sat Sep 20, 2008 at 11:30:04 PM EST

That would explain a few things.

Luckily, Obama has a strategy wherein he could lose FLA and Ohio and still win.

Also luckily, he isn't relying on that strategy. But there are so manyswing states this time it seems like a huge game of candidate whack a mole.

I am just glad they are well-funded.


He doesn't have the advantages (none / 0) (#9)
by andgarden on Sat Sep 20, 2008 at 11:35:56 PM EST

he could have or should have had, but he's still a favorite to win.


: from your lips..... (none / 0) (#12)
by coigue on Sun Sep 21, 2008 at 12:12:08 AM EST

I am still trying not to get my hopes up.

Flat (5.00 / 1) (#2)
by koshembos on Sat Sep 20, 2008 at 11:05:46 PM EST

Obama's talk about the economic troubles is disturbingly flat. One would expect him to run with this golden opportunity and open a large margin between himself and McCain. When you read Bernie Frank's and Hillary comments on the problems you really get frustrated with Obama.

: nope. (none / 0) (#5)
by coigue on Sat Sep 20, 2008 at 11:24:52 PM EST

They get technical. A presidential candidate cannot do that.
You should know that.

Does some of the poll track dissatisfaction (5.00 / 1) (#13)
by blogtopus on Sun Sep 21, 2008 at 01:14:01 AM EST

with his (and the DNC's) performance in the Dem Primary?

Yeah, I know. Shoulda Woulda Coulda, but it might be informative to the DNC for future reference on how NOT to treat an important swing state.

thanks, those ratings are now gone (none / 0) (#10)
by Jeralyn on Sat Sep 20, 2008 at 11:55:05 PM EST

He was correct as to one comment being a personal attack, but the others were clearly not "1"s. I've erased his ratings.

: thanks Jeralyn (none / 0) (#11)
by coigue on Sun Sep 21, 2008 at 12:11:02 AM EST

Obama Can Win Florida (none / 0) (#14)
by john horse on Sun Sep 21, 2008 at 07:32:12 AM EST

I think Florida is a state that should favor McCain but that Obama can win because, as BTD has pointed out, Obama leads on economic issues. Obama is running ads about McCain's advocacy of social security privatization which is an issue that McCain is vulnerable on, especially with Florida's seniors. Bill and/or Hillary Clinton campaigning here just might tip Florida over to Obama.

I don't envy Obama's campaign managers. They have limited resources. There is little time left before the election. There are so many tossup states.

: If Obama wins Florida (none / 0) (#15)
by Coral on Sun Sep 21, 2008 at 09:26:11 AM EST

He will win the electoral college in a landslide. It's highly unlikely.
I know Floridians and even the liberals have a strong libertarian bent. The Hispanic population is heavily Cuban, and they tend to vote GOP (although younger Cubans, not so much). Blacks still have voting-rights problems, and their vote is subject to suppression and undercounting.
However, the events of this last week are so earth-shaking, that many might seriously consider voting against McCain, who doesn't inspire confidence at this crucial moment.