Time/CNN Swing States Poll: Women Prefer Obama

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Wed Sep 24, 2008 at 11:36:49 PM EST
Tags: Sarah Palin, Barack Obama, John McCain (all tags)

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Another sign John McCain's Hail Mary pass to use Sarah Palin to save his failing campaign isn't working: Time Magazine/CNN's swing state polls released today. The states polled: Colorado, Michigan and Pennsylvania, Montana and West Virginia

[T]he new poll suggests that the appeal of McCain's running mate Sarah Palin may not be as much of a game changer as some believed a month ago. Obama has a double-digit lead among women in Colorado, Michigan and Pennsylvania, while he ties with McCain in Montana, and is ahead only 3 points in West Virginia.

More good news on the independent/moderate voters: [More...]

Obama has them by anywhere from six to 13 points in Colorado, Pennsylvania and Montana. In all five states, Obama holds a significant advantage over McCain with likely self-identified moderate voters.

A Fox News poll out today shows Obama with a 45 to 39 point lead over McCain.

The new poll finds Obama now has the edge among men (+5 percentage points) — a group that had previously either been evenly divided or slightly in McCain’s column. Obama maintains his advantage among women voters (+8), while white women are a bit more likely to support McCain (+2).

...By a 5-point margin more voters think the Democratic ticket has “better judgment combined” — a reversal from two weeks ago when the Republican ticket had a 4-point edge.

That straight talk express?

Voters are now almost evenly divided when asked who they would go to for advice if they had to make the “toughest decision of their life” — 40 percent say Obama and 39 percent McCain. Earlier this month McCain had a 16-point advantage on this measure (50 percent to Obama’s 34 percent). McCain had a 6-point edge in the August 19-20 poll (43 percent McCain and 37 percent Obama).

Palin problems?

38 percent of voters say they would be “not at all” comfortable with Palin stepping in to serve as president — more than twice as many as say the same about Biden (17 percent).

Palin’s favorable rating has dropped a bit and now stands at 47 percent, down from 54 percent two weeks ago.

I'd call a 7 point drop in 2 weeks more than "a drop" but, hey, it's Fox.

Markos at Daily Kos reports on similar Palin droppings from Gallup.

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Time/CNN Swing States Poll: Women Prefer Obama | 11 comments (11 topical)

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you can watch it (none / 0) (#2)
by Jeralyn on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 12:18:35 AM EST

here.

Talk about (none / 0) (#6)
by cal1942 on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 12:53:49 AM EST

not ready for prime time.

Are we all prepared to wait until he!! freezes over to get Sarah Palin's list of McCain regulatory initiatives.


wow...this was a really bad interview for her.. (none / 0) (#7)
by LatinoDC on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 01:14:42 AM EST

When she was new on the scene (none / 0) (#9)
by andrys on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 03:15:19 AM EST

I posted something unkind initially, but my initial impression still hasn't left me, though I got a BIT used to it. But her use of her voice still leaves me with a sense of unease (to put it nicely).

I defend Palin against what I consider sometimes quite irrational and often inaccurate accusations made against her (because I wish we didn't act like Republicans who've accused for decades w/o regard to truth) -- but in today's interview with Couric, Palin's voice shows vast insecurity, on every question asked in what we were shown (heavily edited, I'm sure), possibly because she has to mainly say the things she was told or trained to say and they don't come naturally to her. But I sense she is just out of her depth when asked certain questions at this point and of course she has to know that most are waiting for her to implode.

Still, she would probably have been kicked off the ticket by the Repub mgmt by today if she had said what Biden said to Couric the other day.

Biden explained (in the video interview) how things like today's economic crisis were handled well in previous times and added

-- that during the market crash (which was in 1929),
FDR went on TV and just told everyone what was going on,

and Biden thought that this is what's needed today.

Only -- Hoover was the president at the time and there were NO family-TVs in 1929.

If Palin had said this -- in no way would we not have had this take over all the headlines in NYTimes, WashPost, TIME, cable news with Olbermann's face nigh bursting with apoplexy, Maddow laughing for a couple of minutes when not sadly frowning.
And we'd have been given an exclamation-point filled blog entry :-) about it, with much discussion about her too-embarrassing ignorance of history and her strange certitude while explaining things that never were and couldn't be (if she'd said what Biden said, with a straight face).

And that's a point of concern for me.


: That's true (none / 0) (#11)
by Steve M on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 07:23:27 AM EST

It makes a difference whether something fits into a pre-existing narrative.
But I mean, you could make the exact same argument in defense of George Bush, so I don't think you can take this very far.

: If Palin Had Her Fundamentals Down (none / 0) (#12)
by daring grace on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 09:37:25 AM EST

as far as VP service is concerned--a grounding in the national issues like the economy and foreign policy, for example--as Biden does I would give her a pass on this gaffe too.
But with McCain goofing up repeatedly on things like Shi'a and Sunni and Palin giving unconvincing performances in the few national interviews she's allowed so far, it's hard to feel any confidence in their ticket's depth and breadth when it comes to policy.
So, yeah, if this was her gaffe instead of Biden's. i would tend to be tougher...although maybe not really. Because this is a minor glitch compared to some of the more relevant ones she has made or the worrisome fact that she is so underexposed to the electorate except for rallies and photo ops.

The swing... (none / 0) (#3)
by CoralGables on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 12:20:11 AM EST

in the polls from the end of the GOP convention to today has been remarkable. Requests for Palin press conferences have been met with a thanks but no thanks. McCain has tried more tricks than Felix the Cat. And together McCain and Palin have watched their poll numbers melt away like arctic ice.

On a familiar note, it was nice that McCain could bring up 9/11 today in describing his epiphany on the economic crisis. I just couldn't tell if he was channeling George Bush or Rudy Giuliani.

You're burbling over a swing (none / 0) (#4)
by BrianJ on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 12:28:19 AM EST

Of about four percentage points, from McCain +1 or +2 to Obama +2 or +3. The same Quinnipiac poll cited here shows Obama in grave danger of losing Michigan and Minnesota. Losing one (especially Michigan) would make his election difficult, losing both would make it almost impossible.

Obama's post-primary lead was quite a bit larger than this in June, and by the conventions it was entirely gone. For his sake, I hope your overconfidence is not typical of his campaign.


Rather than cherry pick (none / 0) (#8)
by CoralGables on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 01:34:32 AM EST

I'll stick with facts with you. There were nine national polls released today and averaging them out Obama is at +4. Using your numbers that's a five to six point swing.

As for Minnesota and Michigan...Only one poll in Minnesota this week and it has Obama at +2, and he hasn't trailed in a Minnesota poll since March. In three polls this week in Michigan Obama averages out at +5.

For someone that said Obama was in a box with no way out after Palin was picked, it looks like you may have been badly mistaken.


: Your grasp of facts is slippery (none / 0) (#10)
by BrianJ on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 04:49:00 AM EST

The average of those nine polls was +2.78, not +4, if we're talking about the polls posted here this morning. Subtle difference, but that is what I said. (As for Michigan, his average lead is +3.75 in polls taken since September 16- he gained much less there than nationally. Ditto MN and PA. His gains in the last week appear to have been concentrated in places where they do him little good, as was the case with McCain's Palin bounce.)
The debates will happen, and McCain/ Palin are benefiting from rock-bottom expectations they can hardly help but exceed.
Unless the Dow loses 1000 points in a day between now and November 4, Obama's still in the box.

Rules (none / 0) (#5)
by cal1942 on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 12:41:30 AM EST

Palin droppings from Gallup

Jerilyn, are you breaking your own rule?