Make a new account
And the Republicans and their friends on Wall Street continued on their merry way, looting and raping the economy for their own private profit.
And now, they want us to bail them out so they can continue to do the same thing.
I fall in the latter and am magnanimous in my outrage. Parent
Probably why we don't seem to solve many problems, we postpone them. Parent
I don't think anybody knows what is gonna happen whether we bail-out or we don't, especially the so-called "experts". Where the hell have these "experts" been for the last 8-10 years? Parent
Too bad there's no way to single every one of them out of the common herd.
There was a story in the Columbus Dispatch Sunday about a realtor who had a 5 bedroom home in Clintonville (obviously upper Clintonville) and a Mercedes in the garage. Now she's renter in lower class digs. "No one saw it coming!" she claims. Either she is embarrassingly ignorant of the housing market she made money on, or she is lying. (Terrible at managing her money/career as well.) Parent
As I see it, the problem is this; the mighty post WWII American 'consumer" economy is no more. But finding its end impossible to contemplate or admit we have created a facade, a financial "house of cards" as the President calls it, to mask its loss and take its place.
That economy was created by and based in the consumer spending of a broad and broadening middle class. Spending supported by a growing job market and productivity-based rising wages.
But, over the last 30-40 years, as a result of automation, globalization, union suppression and the political support, by both parties, of the interests of finance over manufacturing, Wall Street over Main Street, heirs and investors over wage earners, and, the elevation of the consumer interests of a more affluent but more limited meritocratic class over even the most basic survival interests of everyone else, we have transitioned to a different economy -- a borrower economy in which consumer spending is propped up to a greater and greater extent by easier and easier credit and more and more unsustainable levels of personal debt. We have become dependent on financial measures and manipulations -- the acceptance of huge amounts of debt and, most important in this crisis, reliance on ever more questionable credit instruments and practices, to maintain consumer spending while obscuring the real, fundamental problems; productivity growth that no longer leads to rising wages, rising job insecurity, record levels of income disparity (that have replaced a broad, mass market with ever richer but more limited elite markets), and, most important, average per capita wages and even "average" household incomes that can not support even basic middle class survival expectations (homeownership, health care, education, retirement), much less healthy consumer spending. Nor, of course, do they support savings.
It is an economy in which the middle class has dwindled, working class wages have been declining for decades, and even the wages of the educated middle class have stagnated (and, most recently, started to decline). And, of course, as such, it is an economy in which the poor find entry into the middle class (thus expanding the consumer base required for a consumer economy) through good jobs and higher wages increasingly impossible.
But, despite all these long-standing problems, we have managed to stagger along, from crisis to crisis, bubble to bubble, and actually create unprecedented fortunes for those at the top, by finessing our level of financial play and letting the whole world in on the shell game.
For instance, in addition to the transition to two earner households, late 70s and early 80s inflation and wage stagnation was met with easier credit for greater and greater numbers of people. The "smart" strategy consumers were encouraged to pursue was to "buy now" on credit and pay later "with cheaper dollars." Credit cards went from a convenience for the affluent to an ubiquitous necessity for everyone else. (Increasingly, in many places, you couldn't even open a bank account without one.)
By the end of the 80s, despite the fact that most middle class households now had two earners, the average middle class family was routinely using significant amounts of debt to maintain both consumer spending and the basic expectations of middle class life (home ownership, healthcare and education, secure retirement). But, they were paying an increasingly unbearable cost for doing so -- because although inflation (in consumer goods, but not in basics like health care and housing) was now under control, interest rates were still sky high. Businesses loaded with too much high interest debt went under, jobs were lost, bankruptcies spiked, consumer spending contracted. George H. Bush lost his bid for re-election.
In the 90s, falling interest rates allowed for an orgy of home re-financing. Middle class families used that money to pay down their debt, Wall Street boomed, the budget deficit was brought under control, the housing market picked up, and increases in home values and 401 K's made so many people members of the "investor" class that concern about wages and wage earnings became passe. When, in fact, at the end of the decade wages even, for the first time in 30 years, began to rise for those at the bottom began, many saw it as a troublesome development (that could lead to inflation in the cost of doing business) that needed to be supressed.
2000 -- the high tech bubble began to inevitably deflate, the Bush administration made tax breaks for the investor class its only priority. Gains for working people from the 90s were lost and reversed. Jobs contracted. But, although the average guy's 401K may have been hammered, there were HUGE amounts of money in the hands of the real investor class. Where to put it? In investment in America's infrastructure? In development of new technologies, industries and jobs? Naw. Not enough profit in that. What's needed is another bubble. More questionable, easy money, high profit financial instruments. More suckers trying to grasp at the American dream in the only ways open to them.
Do we really have any more bubbles in us? And if we don't, how do we start addressing a problem too many powerful people no longer even see as a problem (in fact, see as a benefit for themselves) -- the destruction of real wage and job growth. Parent
One is that manufacturing in this country didn't just decline on a whim, it declined because it simply couldn't compete with dirt cheap Chinese and other foreign manfacturing, even by U.S.-owned companies. How many of us bought, for instance, an expensive (and honestly not terribly well-made) American-made TV set back in the day there still was such a thing and passed over the cheaper, better mostly Asian-made sets? Same thing with cars, major and minor appliances, power tools, heck, you name it.
Secondly, there's a genuine boom going on in China primarily, but other places, too, and vast pools of money looking for a home. My understanding is that horrors like mortgage-backed securities and credit default swaps and were invented largely in order to have something to sell to that vast amount of foreign capital sloshing around. Parent
gave all sorts of tax breaks to people who didn't produce in this country, but sold almost exclusively to the US.
Martin Sullivan, a contributing editor to Tax Notes, a non-profit publication that tracks tax issues reports: At issue is the U.S. tax code's treatment of profits earned by foreign subsidiaries of American corporations. Profits earned in the United States are subject to the 35% corporate tax. But multinational corporations can defer paying U.S. taxes on their overseas profits until they return them to the USA -- transfers that often don't happen for years. General Electric, for example, has $62 billion in "undistributed earnings" parked offshore, according to recent Securities and Exchange Commission filings. Drug giant Pfizer boasts $60 billion. ExxonMobil has $56 billion. "If you had two companies in Pittsburgh that both were going to expand capacity and create 100 jobs, our tax code puts the company who chooses to put the plant in Pittsburgh at a competitive disadvantage over the company that chooses to move to a tax haven," says former White House economist Gene Sperling, a Clinton adviser. The Democrats, saying the United States has overlooked the costs to working Americans in its rush to embrace globalization, have vowed to eliminate any tax incentive for further offshoring.
You are correct about the "vast pools of money looking for a home." And that "mortgage-backed securities and credit default swaps and were invented largely in order to have something to sell to that vast amount of foreign capital sloshing around."
That's the problem and the irony; lots of money has been made by a limited number, although global in scope, interests off the destruction of our once more broadly properous, consumer economy. The people who have the resources to make the investments needed to revive broad prosperity on a newer, more modern footing, are the same people who benefitted most from its destruction, and will experience the least personal pain at its demise. Parent
Good discussion here, Esmense. Thanks for the post. Far more useful than just running around yelling about "fat cats" ripping us all off. The issue is how they got so fat, and whether there's anything at all that could conceivably be done to make a real and large-scale difference.
I don't really see a way to get our consumer-based manufacturing economy back, at least not until the Chinese, et al, get so completely caught up to us in terms of lifestyle and economic expectations that U.S. manufacturing can begin to compete again, but that ain't gonna happen in my lifetime. And in any case, there will be other developing countries right behind them to pick up the slack. Parent
As long as people understand that a extremist doctrine of free market fetishism and radical deregulation got us into the mess we're in today, that's what really matters. Everything else will come out in the wash. Parent
I would caution you against a Broderesque obsession with declaring "both sides are to blame" that gets in the way of identifying actual root causes. In the context of saying that both political parties have contributed to the problem, sure, that's valid. In the context of claiming that both regulation and deregulation have contributed to the problem, if you're going to drill down to that level in the pursuit of evenhandedness above all, then I think you're going to have a hard time drawing actual conclusions. Parent
The Republicans were in favor of the relevant piece of deregulation because they are generally in favor of deregulation, by ideology.
The Democrats were in favor the relevant piece of deregulation because they are generally in favor of extending credit to middle class/working class/lower middle class constituents (a sizable number of them minorities), again by ideology. Democrats have been pushing in this direction for many, many years.
Both parties would also assert, I'm sure, that their ideologies, "properly understood", should not have entailed the particular deregulation, and lack of oversight, that led to this crisis. I'm sure Republicans will say that deregulation, properly understood, should not have allowed the financial industry such leeway that they could have extended so many bad loans; this, they will say, is one of the things that should have been regulated. I'm sure Democrats likewise will say that extending credit to their constituents should never have been done in such a way that truly bad credit risks were allowed on a systematic basis.
How you can claim that one party is responsible for the relevant "ideology" and not the other you never explain -- you simply assert, as if it's obvious. What's certainly true is that it is in no way an accident for either party that they have had a hand in enabling this fiasco: it derives from policies they have been pursuing for decades.
A moment of honesty on these points might be appreciated. Parent
sure, you'll get this Adjustable rate, but you can just refinance in 6 months because the house will SURELY be worth more then than it is now, you'll have no problem refinancing at a better, flat rate, no problem at all....the numbers work I'm telling you...
of course, most of those people couldn't refinance at a flat rate and then the TOTALLY OBSCENE, immoral Adjustable rates kicked in and the people could no longer afford their houses...
I know that this goes against economics at its root, but I never understood why people think that those who make less money should be charged more money to borrow, thus making it harder for them to pay back the loan...yes, I understand risk and economics, but I understand BEING HUMAN and having COMMON SENSE even more... Parent
My initial point in making the root post was sincerely not to initiate a root-cause analysis but to share observations on how many on both sides are expressing their frustration. Parent
I have the feeling if we had more machinists, and less lawyers (sorry guys:), stock brockers, paper-pushers, and desk jockeys...we wouldn't be in this mess. Ya know...more people who actually produce something tangible, and less middle men. We are a nation of middle men, and middle men always run the risk of getting arsed out. Parent
I know what helped us out of it was a government investment in machinists...for the war effort. But it need not be a war, this time we could invest in machinists and engineers to invent an engine that could solve the energy crisis.
If we must involve the government at all....I still think we let these "to big to fail" outfits fail...there are plenty of billionaires to loan money to those with sound business models for a fee. Parent
Relying on someone to 'invent an engine' to solve the energy crisis seems more than a bit far fetched.
And, while my heart is with you on letting those "too big to fail" fail, my head says those billionaires won't be lending the neighbor's kid money to go to college at a rate he can afford.
I, too, wish the world were a lot simpler than it evidently is. Wishing, like hoping, isn't going to solve any problems no matter what Jiminy Cricket says. Parent
"Something is rotten in Denmark"...either we can attempt to fix it, or we can hope a future generation has the courage and imagination to do it.
I know I'm a knucklehead and don't know jack...maybe I'll starve if Fannie and Freddie and Goldie and AIG don't get paid...but sh*t man I feel like this is an opportunity to wake the f*ck up as a nation.
Like Ralph Kramden used to say..."Thats all I can stands I can't stands no more!"...:) Parent
See James Galbraith's column in Wapo today...sorry, can't link...but it's entitled "A Bailout We Don't Need."
I'm with Galbraith. Parent
People who are mad at both parties.
Mad at Republicans because they favor the idiocy of the "invisible hand" all the while fighting for corporate welfare.
Mad at Democrats for moving to the center, triangulating, and buying into the the Republican's bull$hit.
See? I'm mad at both. But one side has been primarily responsible for championing the religion of the free market to the exclusion of all other ideas about how things can be run. Parent
A) Republicans did it through deregulation and lax oversight at the SEC.
B) Democrats did it by supporting Fannie and Freddie in the face of evidence of cooked books.
It's still early days so it's difficult to trace the full chain of responsibility but the fact that the WSJ and republican posters are trying to distance John McCain and the GOP from deregulation is amusing.
Everyone agrees that more regulation is coming and Bush himself said we can't allow companies to get into a position where they are too large to fail. Parent
Extremes in either case are not productive IMO. There is "bad" regulation as well as "bad" de-regulation and the complete story would include examples of both as contributors. My point of view is that the short-term benefits of housing growth rewarded both parties to the point that where whistles were blown they weren't blown loud enough and weren't responded to.
You are correct in that the de-regulation bogeyman (all de-regulation is evil) is playing well to the crowd and that is obviously something R's haven't figured out how to address. Parent
but we know that we have never had any of that on a large scale and never will, so the only substitute is choking regulation that suffocates change...
if the elite won't have morals, then give them suffocating regulation...seems fair to me...
greed is good, but only greed that looks for honest betterment....not slimy greed that just looks to cook books and mess with numbers like companies now do on WS... Parent
But, the underlying cause of the whole debacle remains the philosophy that holds as its tenets:
Besides, what ever happened to the Pottery Barn Rule: "You break it, you own it"? Parent
Rinse and repeat for any circumstance. Parent
I say it goes back decades to the Reagan era. To this day, there are people who refuse to acknowledge the evil perpetrated on the world with th help of the Reagan administration. To this day, he is a hero.....he lied, he spun and he is a hero. Go figure. Parent
Unforgiveable in my book. Parent
If the Olympics ever establish events in either one I think we can field the gold-medal team from the blogs alone. Parent
Meanwhile, no one in the (beneficiary) MSM has the cajones to broach the the subject of the extent to which those holding the purse strings have effectivly hi-jacked the democratic process -- which, last time I looked, was supposed to weigh equally in the balance the interests of ALL of the citizenry.
Yet, after all this, many here still say people like Ralph Nader "go too far" and are craaaazy for even publicly talking about this state of affairs. Parent
Except, of course, making sure that senior execs don't get compensated for leading us to the brink of disaster. Parent
The lending in lower income areas under his administration, which he does not know the details, did not ask for FNMA and freddie to abandon the underwriting standards. The Investment bankers after the bust of the dot.com started doing MBS/s without the standards. With an underlying lie that home values would always go up.
Bill knows everyone has their hands on this thing. Parent
Take up your trivially false arguments with President Clinton. Parent
Is this really the thread you meant? Parent
You would see me post a bunch of talking points concluding that the Dems only created this mess. Easy enough to cut and paste. However, I don't believe this.
I am a moderate R and self-proclaimed in the past on this site, yet I've been capable of having productive conversation with others on this board previously. No fear, Sir or Madam, you're not outing me, I already have in the past.
Now... do not question my sincerity anymore and take up your argument with President Clinton, who sees root cause as being pervasive among parties. Parent
If you read this site then you know that your above claim that widening loan access to poor communities is behind this crisis is a lie. If you read this site then you know conservatism is primarily at fault. Admit that, and you can have productive conversations about whether "primarily" means "90% of all blame" or whether it means "50% conservatism, 10% liberalism, 50% human nature". Parent
What I'm bristling at is your claim to know my motivations and your repetitive questioning of my own convictions.
Look at past posts of mine. They are mixed with questions and honest attempts at dialogue, many of which have been productive. I've not positioned my self as a concern troll and have repeatedly gone on record as one who disagrees with many points of view here but admires the quality of thought on this blog as well as the generally uplifting level of discourse, even when views expressed are not my own.
Can we come to a point where you can at least accept my views has being sincerely held, even if you vehemently disagree? Parent
Heck, you can skip 0) for that matter. Without 1) and 2) though you're either a troll, dumb, or have a poor grasp of English. Parent
Because as long as wages are stagnant any bubble will eventually burst.
It always comes down to jobs. And no matter how many statistics or alphabet soup that people from the financial sector throw at you, even they cannot deny this simple fact. Parent
W. needs slogans because he otherwise might forget what he's talking about. Parent
it's a crisis...we should be able to make rash decisions...
I guess we had the chance to sort-of re-elect Clinton and passed it up...we might regret that as some already are... Parent
The infot is on http://coinage.me. Where the flaws are articulated in detail unlike anything you see on the news and a detail solution is provided to fix the foundation. Which everyone else seems to lack.
Many people only see the appearances they do not see the fundamental flaw in the system itself.
From where I sit, the only solution that will work is one whereby middle class capital grows, and their debt decreases. And that cannot be only through home values, because after a while you'll just be back where you started.
And the bailout won't get at this. I'm worried that at the end of the day, even with many well-meaning provisions included, it's just another case of throwing good money after bad. Parent
WaMu opening tomorrow under different name--per tease on ABC Ch 7 NYC area.
Well, Bernhard said WaMu was going under on Friday...writer for Moon of AL. Parent
This is NOT a problem of the past seven years, but has been in motion for the better part of 40 years (since FNMA and FHLMC were 'privatized'). Both parties have had presidents and been in charge of congress since that time. Both parties, if they had really wanted to, would have fixed the problems.
The only person I know of who was sounding the clarion call up to two years ago was not a legislator. A professional analyst, sure, but only a blogger, not some influential lobbyist. Parent
Fannie Mae and Feddie Mac are pieces of the larger picture, however. Parent
The right wing has proven how very capable they are of owning certain issues. Going back to Ronald Reagan, a guy who was NOT a war hero, but who played one in the movies, the right has owned and framed patriotism and heroes. How else can someone explain how a purple heart winner, Kerry, was mocked and derided with the press silent on it, while an AWOL frat boy, W, was painted as a hero. If I did not witness that, I would not have believe it. During the 90s, Bill Clinton was derided as a "draft dodger" and traitor (for protesting the Vietnam war in London). When people say Bill should go after McCain, they are being ridiculous. Bill, the draft dodger vs John, the POW will then become the story.
Clinton is smart. Don't go after McCain...go after the issues. Parent
Why are we here in this fix? I see it as a two part answer.
If you listened to the testimony of Paulson and Bernanke they listed the following:
Failure to regulate the credit default swaps and the derivative market in general. Failure to grasp the fact that some institutions were too important to fail (like AIG) and to have sufficient regulatory authority over them. Failure to have regulatory authority over significant players in the markets. Failure to exercise regulatory authority and oversight responsibilities at the administrative and legislative levels Improper lending standards and improper lending by lenders. Borrowers taking loans that they shouldn't have taken. Depreciation of housing prices. Parent
"It's Human Nature."? Parent
my vote should matter, and as long as there are lobbyists out there with billions of dollars then my vote doesn't matter...
rash I know, but I'm tired of lobbyists, and I'm tired of politicians becoming lobbyists because the pay is WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY better.... Parent
The housing bubble was a gold rush and we all took part. We all know people who "flipped" houses, got rich in 2 years by buying in a hip or start-up area.
We all also know people who are now sitting on two houses or can't afford the house they're in because they took out a mortgage to add on, buy a car or whatever.
We built this problem and our politicians and financial institutions where all to happy to help us. Crying foul now and saying the gov't is both responsible and has the ability to fix the situation is the difference between being a liberal and a conservative.
The liberal doesn't give enough blame to the people and the conservative gives to much.
I for one don't think a bailout is necessary. Instead we need to remove the government which "helped" create this problem by tyring to run loan institutions in a volitile market.
Bush, Democrats and Republicnas all pushed to get more people in their homes. Bush crowed about it in a SOTU address. Democrats complained that not enough people where getting in homes and republicans loosened some of the regulations on the free market that would have "helped" stop the maddness but not prevented it.
Republicans are taking the biggest hit on this because they where driving the car for 6 of the last 8 years with the president riding shotgun the whole time. I still don't know why a democratic congress is getting of scott free as they've driven the car into the quicksad the last two years but whatever.
The bottom line is the government can't be trusted to fix this. The consequence of this action are unkown and the risk not big enough IMHO to justify more meddling by the partisan hacks in Washington.
We the poeple created this mess and we the people deserve to suffer the consequences.
We are a democracy and "We the People" ran up bad creadit card debt and having the government create money to push the pig forward for our children to pay off isn't the answer.
We are going to have a recession. It's coming. The question really is do you want to delay it through this action and have you current and unborn children pay off the debt or do you want to have us around right now deal with the consequences.
We act like this action is going to fix this.
Right now we are in Marty McFly mode. We stopped our father from getting hit by the car and we got hit ourselves. Now we are racing against the clock to make sure our dad kisses mom at the prom so we can put the future back in order. Only problem is when we get back to 1985...well you know that there where 2 more movies right? And each one was worse then the first. Parent
I'm supporting nothing other than WillB's statement that not all of us participated in the credit crisis.
Sounds like you need a cup of tea ... or something. Parent
Lots of blame to go around, for sure. Parent
Willingly or knowingly or not, we've all been complicit in creating this.
I realized a long time ago -- during the last Bush administration when high levels of consumer debt (records which we have since zoomed past) and high interest rates were creating problems -- that it didn't matter how fiscally responsible I was, personally. Responsible or not, my economic fate is tied to the behavior of my fellow Americans -- as a business and property owner I realized I would, short term, profit off their indebtedness. But, as an individual -- no matter how personally responsible and debt free I was -- I would, long term, suffer the economic consequences when the whole house of cards fell down. (A fact that, frankly, pisses me off.)
Middle class people who complain about the people who took advantage of these questionable financing options should remember -- those people weren't simply grabbing a bit of the American dream for themselves, they were propping up housing values for everyone (and keeping more people employed too).
Even if these "unqualified" people hadn't been able to get those loans, the problem of too few genuinely qualified buyers would have inevitably both had serious economic consequences. No bail out is likely to change that fact. Parent
Mind you, I'm a suburban Midwesterner, and he's a NYC guy, so we probably come from different places in terms of appreciating the intangible value of homeownership. But when politicians of both parties take step after step, year after year, to make homeownership easier and easier, odds are they're doing it because that's what the voters want. Sometimes we pay the price for being a democracy instead of an "enlightened dictatorship." Parent
so they kept building and building with no end in sight, borrowing money to do so...and then when house prices started to fall and buyers started to dry up they all just filed bankruptcy and left the bill for building all these monstrosities to the American people...
everyone is to blame...everyone...some more than others (ahem to all you crappy mortgage brokers who are now bankrupt) but everyone is to blame... Parent
I fell for it, and I'll be paying for it, like every other taxpayer.
And I don't even get off the hook if Clinton had any part in it, because I voted for him twice too.
My vote this year was going to be a protest vote, but I don't have that luxury anymore. Now I've got to start over from scratch with the decision process, and try to figure out who (if anyone) has a reasonable plan for getting us out of this mess. Either that or just not vote at all, and hope the smarter people make the right choice - whatever it is. Parent
NYT