Flowers from the TL Kid. (Larger version here.)
Your turn, all topics welcome.
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But wow. They expect a Bradley effect of 7 points?
Who would delight in such a thing?
Setting up for what? For an explanation of a McCain win, to deflect from attention to voter suppression. That's the grassy knoll I'm standing on to explain this fascination with and misinformation about the Bradley Effect. Parent
There is much more on the pollster site about it, but after considerable discussion and analysis and more by the experts on polling, here is one alternative upon which many appear to agree: That it is more the effect of age than race, i.e., the youth of most callers (I get called in my swing state a lot and can attest to that) vs. the age of older voters.
Respondents may be making judgements about the exit poll interviewers based on their [voice or] appearance (age, gender and race) that influence whether they agree to participate or avoid the interviewer altogether. Similarly, while interviewers are supposed to be . . . sticking rigidly to instructions . . . anecdotal evidence suggests that those with less experience often deviate from the procedure and "take who they can get." So less experienced, overburdened interviewers are probably making judgments about which respondents (based on their age, gender and race) might be most likely to cooperate. . . .
I was just worried if the fabled Bradley Effect would show up in the GE. Republicans are certainly hoping for it. Parent
I know that in itself isn't the Bradley effect. I don't know whether these particular people would tell a pollster they were voting for Obama despite intending otherwise.
I'm not sure if there's any way a Bradley effect could be minimized. Are people saying they'd vote for Obama (though they won't) after a barrage of questions about party affiliation and other downticket candidates (or in anticipation of a barrage of questions)? What makes people practice en masse a certain type of lying (lying based on race)?
I think the effect could potentially crop up in some states more than others. Parent
Of course, in the case of Obama -- would they vote Dem, anyway? Especially in red states such as North Carolina?
And then, the question is -- will they be polled? They have to be polled, and lie, to begin to create the Bradley Effect. Parent
as we all know unions are pretty much by-the-line voters... Parent
If the unions are divided on this, it's trouble for the Dems in some of the swing states. So I'd be interested in sources on this and on where it's happening. Parent
Missouri's Governor has issued a statement. I know that it's common for candidates to have teams of supporters who try to keep false stories from being spread, but isn't it unusual to use law enforcement officials?
The San Francisco Chronicle, on September 17, said,
"In Elko, Obama tried to anticipate his critics and called on the crowd of about 1,500 to sharpen their elbows, too.
'I need you to go out and talk to your friends and talk to your neighbors. I want you to talk to them whether they are independent or whether they are Republican. I want you to argue with them and get in their face," he said. "And if they tell you that, 'Well, we're not sure where he stands on guns.' I want you to say, 'He believes in the Second Amendment.' If they tell you, 'Well, he's going to raise your taxes,' you say, 'No, he's not, he's going lower them.' You are my ambassadors. You guys are the ones who can make the case.'
"And if they tell you that, 'Well, we're not sure where he stands on guns.' I want you to say, 'He believes in the Second Amendment.' If they tell you, 'Well, he's going to raise your taxes,' you say, 'No, he's not, he's going lower them.' You are my ambassadors. You guys are the ones who can make the case.'
And a piece by the newspaper in my town (San Francisco), which asks:
"Even if the officeholders joining the "truth squad" are nominally stepping out of their official roles in order to put on their (political) party hats and play politics, it's inappropriate. They wield too much power to use it to wag their fingers at people who say un-nice things about political hopefuls. Prosecutors and sheriffs are, after all, normally thought of as people with the clout to put their targets behind bars."
We state employees did win an interpretation that allows us to be political volunteers on our own time, as private citizens. But we better be sure to be doing so as private citizens. So if we volunteer on a workday, we have to take a vacation day.
And I support this, absolutely. I'm paid by taxpayers on both sides. In my work, I deal with -- and have a position of power over -- taxpayers from both sides.
Plus, in my private citizen life, I don't want to walk into a tax-paid workplace and have to see buttons and signs and such for the other side. Parent
"[McCain] may be the first presidential candidate in our history to risk wrecking the country even before being voted into the Oval Office."
Happy Birthday Jeralyn! I'll be sure to donate to TL again before the end of the day.
I really did like "John McCain and Bush broke it, I'll fix it" or "They broke it, I'll fix it". Parent
Suppose there were solid evidence that, as recently as six years ago, Michelle Obama was a member of an openly secessionist fringe party?
As for Sarah Palin herself, your link includes this allegation:
at least two AIP officials recall her attending the 1994 convention, though she says she did not attend.
It's a part of the platform of the AK republican party to allow equal time for "creation science" and to insist that evolution be characterized as "just a theory". So they seem to have quite a hold up there.
My concern is that as a potential President she could push this stuff a lot further once she has a friendlier court.
Enjoy your day too.
Thanks to all for your good wishes, they really make the day more special, and while I know I'm not old, I really dislike the number. I can't even bring myself to type it!
And thanks to those of you who contributed, I will send you each a thank you email this week.
Funny, we're all going out for Vietnamese food on my birthday later this week too. It must the new thing... Parent
Happy Birthday!! Parent
I tried to be productive today and do yard work. I hate yard work. As a singly women, sometimes it overwhelms me. As a person in my sixties it is getting harder and harder to climb ladders and trim trees and bushes. I really want to see my house but thanks to Bush and Wall street this is not the time.
So while I was cutting bushes, something nasty bit me. And now I have two huge, painful welts on my arm. I took benadryl and while the reaction is minor, it still reminds me of why I despise the greedy wingnuts.
And we give -- I just gave my students extra time on an assignment due tomorrow, and already I'm getting ecstatic emails of gratitude . . . before they go back to party down some more.
Then I'll treat them in class this week with my PowerPoint of the celebration in the streets of my town that your town called "Bushville." Here it is, 51 years later, and you still haven't learned.:-) Parent
Right now, we're on every computer in the house, signing on for the lottery here for series tickets. I would love to win one for the fan in the family who turns 97 this week -- and has been a fan of Milwaukee baseball all of her life.
We had to watch her hypertension this weekend! Parent
Nonetheless, in the pennant race the gloves are off.
It would be great if my Mom and my uncle, both in their 80s and rabid Cubs fans, could see their Cubbies go all the way this season.
I've been wearing my Cubs baseball cap everywhere since opening day this year. I've been amazed at the number of people here in Portland who are pulling for the Cubs this year. Kinda nice. Parent
And he was chaperoning Midwestern-nice Catholic college students -- all women, all out there in the streets for the fun, too. He decided not to check to see how many made it to Mass the next morning.:-) Parent
"It's high, it's deep, he's there, and for the second straight year the Marlins have ended the Mets' season in humiliating fashion as the Marlins win, 4-2, and the Mets season is over."
As a Steelers' fan-blogger once wrote about Browns fans: "Their pain nourishes me".
CC, you may take some pleasure in this - when the Brewers went ahead 3-1, it was the bottom of the 8th at Shea. You could hear, on the TV broadcast, as the Brewers' score was posted on the Shea scoreboard - a deep groan. That came shortly after the Mets bullpen gave up the lead on back-to-back homers, a result (sudden bullpen collapse) I'd predicted as the proximate cause of the Mets' demise.
But - hey - it's Shea and New York. Where else would someone steal from the stadium the World Champions pennant - before it could be raised - and hide it in their basement for 14 years, then get busted for trying to sell it on EBay as the Mets returned to the World Series in 2000? It happened with the Mets' 1986 pennant. Parent
Right now, they're heading out for Wild Card t-shirts and caps to wear to the massive fan rally planned tomorrow here. The city will shut down.
And I'm looking up the playoff schedule to see if I need to reschedule some due dates for papers from my students. I could stick to the schedule, sure, or I can get realistic -- so I can get to read papers that won't be thrown together at two in the morning. I've already learned, long ago, to schedule around hunting season here.:-) Parent
I can't even blame the bullpen, as atrocious as they were most of the year...the gutless wonders can only manage two runs in a do or die last game ever at Shea? Are you f*ckin' kidding me?The Marlins didn't trot out CC or Beckett or Nolan Freakin' Ryan...we're talking about Scott Olsen here. Pathetic.
Oh well, as they've been saying in Chi-Town for 100 years, we'll get 'em next year:)
The post-game good bye to Shea was pretty cool, seeing my childhood heroes take the field again. Wally, Nails, Mex, The Kid, Orosco, Darling, Bobby O, Straw, Krusty Slob, and Doc...thanks for the memeories guys, you will live forever in our hearts. Parent
On the bright side for both of us--Spring training is only seven or so months away. Parent
Even though they let us down yesterday, I'll be rooting for the Cubbies from here on out, and the Rays in the AL. Slay the goat! Parent
He's going to wind up like Mitch "Wild Thing" Williams in Philly, circa November 1993: sneaking out of town after dark ahead of the mobs with pitchforks and torches. Parent
He got a great birthday present today, too.:-) Parent
They think that rabid hate and constantly tearing down McCain will pull people to the Obama/Dem camp when convincing people requires sometimes more subtlety especially from a former President. Parent
Although I think Obama is likely to win because of the lousy economy. There is a looming danger if the press coverage continues to exclude him from the discussion.
Allright, Eagles pick off Bears in the endzone! Just as I was about to ask you to share some of that birthday luck. :)