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The CBO Report On The Economic Stimulus Plan

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Obama Administration
Posted on Tue Jan 27, 2009 at 07:45:06 AM EST
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Here is the actual CBO report (PDF) (as opposed to the GOP press release on a partial report) on the economic stimulus legislation. The report concludes that the stimulus plan will have a positive impact on job creation and economic growth (kind of a "duh" conclusion). The report does not seem to tell us how much impact. This economic stimulus plan seems entirely too timid to me.

Speaking for me only

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    The CBO Report On The Economic Stimulus Plan | 16 comments (16 topical)

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    Yah well, (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by dk on Tue Jan 27, 2009 at 08:59:30 AM EST
    the relative silence of "progressives" on the economic stimulus plan is deafening, in my opinion.

    Thanks for at least bringing this up.

    Too timid, and getting worse. (5.00 / 3) (#2)
    by LarryInNYC on Tue Jan 27, 2009 at 09:19:22 AM EST
    It seems to me that each compromise that Obama makes with the Republicans further waters down the stimulus effect of the bill.  Martin (Marvin?) Feldstein, Reagan's economic czar, was on the radio last night, and even he is against the broad income tax cuts in the bill.

    Obama ought to express each compromise with the Republicans in terms of a calculated jobs-not-created figure.  "Republicans today removed a further 250,000 jobs from the stimulus package".

    And have you noticed that what is getting (5.00 / 3) (#5)
    by Anne on Tue Jan 27, 2009 at 10:50:38 AM EST
    the most air time these days are Republicans like Boehner and McConnell, who are delivering the same old GOP lines about needing to be "responsible" in the spending, and shilling for the kinds of tax cuts they love the most, and acting as if none of what we are currently experiencing, and needing to dig out of, has anything to do with them and the failed policies of the Bush years?

    No, they're just doing what they always do, the only thing they know how to do, and I feel like I am watching Obama and the Democrats shriveling up and beginning to position themselves to roll over.

    Why?  Because that's what we do?  Submit?

    And why is Obama spending so much time hanging out with Republicans - he's not going to convince them that their way is wrong - what's going to happen is that he is going to give them a gift basket full of the goodies they want - goodies that are not going to help the economy.  And the GOP isn't going to return the favor.

    If Obama wants to succeed, wants another term, he has to get this economic thing right.  And he is going to have to do something he has never done before: be willing to be bold and out front and a leader and steel himself against the possibility that a bunch of whiney Republicans might not like him a whole lot.  Because as sure as I'm sitting here, they won't have any trouble throwing their "good firend" Barack Obama, and all his Democratic friends to the wolves when the economy does not pull out of the nose dive.

    Honestly, I think that if there were only 1 Republican member of the House and only 1 Republican member of the Senate, we would still find a way to screw it up.

    You are exactly right! (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by BernieO on Tue Jan 27, 2009 at 11:36:07 AM EST
    I just wrote about this on another thread. The Democrats have the hearts of the people right now but they are still ceding their minds to the right wing. I am already hearing right wing proganda from people I know who are not political. Worse I am hearing it repeated by mainstream media. Just this morning on "Morning Joe" Mika kept repeating the right wing lie that the New Deal did not increase employment!! Conservatives make this claim based on stats that deliberately omit all jobs created directly by programs like the WPA and CCC (as if those people did not provide goods and services that helped grow the economy) and count only private sector jobs. Mike Barnicle defended FDR but not by refuting these bogus facts but by saying FDR made people feel confident. Like that would have happened if unemployment had stayed over 20%

    Clearly the right's message is getting out with little or no response from Dems or the mainstream media. I have had people tell me that the economy did not improve under FDR, which is not true. When I tell them it was getting much better until FDR was talking into reining in spending leading to a downturn in '37-'38 (but never as bad as earlier) they are surprised. When they say WWII is what got us out I point out that it did finish the job - but only because of GOVERNMENT SPENDING which means FDR needed to spend more, not less. I usually get an "I never thought of that" as an answer.

    Now we have the lie about the CBO report which thankfully is getting some pushback. However, in my view this illustrates the problem. When Dems push back they do it on the details of specific cases instead of addressing the underlying message coming from the right - that the government can do nothing to help the economy except cutting spending and cutting taxes for the rich and businesses. Until Democrats address this belief (which has been internalized by many if not a majority of Americans after hearing it preached since Reagan with virtually no counterargument from Dems) our country will continue to go down the wrong path. Until people realize that Reaganomics is wrong on the theory and understand the legitimate role of government in our economy we will keep repeating the same pattern of bubbles and collapse, assuming we come out of this downturn.

    Parent

    Seems like this is an issue where (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by Anne on Tue Jan 27, 2009 at 01:22:13 PM EST
    the Obama mantra of "Yes, We Can" - or some variation of it - ought to be being shouted from the rooftops, or at least into microphones and in the media.

    Every time some Republican claims we can't spend money on this or we can't spend money on that: Yes, We Can - and give detailed reasons why it can and should happen, and how it will help.

    Every time John Boehner claims that it isn't responsible to allocate money for this or money for that: Yes, It Is - and give a mini-lecture on why we have to spend money now.

    Our most crying need, from what I have seen so far, is someone - maybe a couple of someones - who can be the genial wonks who make sense out of the Dems' ideas in a way that reveals the GOP to be the last place anyone would go for answers to economic problems, and would get the people solidly behind the Democratic plan.

    Sadly, the Democratic plan seems to be falling apart as Obama strives to garner bipartisan support (he still has not learned that to the GOP, the term "bipartisan" means "the GOP way").

    The economy may well be the biggest test Obama faces, and I am so far not encouraged that he is going to come anywhere close to acing it.

    Parent

    Of course it's too timid (5.00 / 2) (#6)
    by Dadler on Tue Jan 27, 2009 at 11:10:08 AM EST
    Look who the president is, a man so timid in his desire to take on Republicans he'd rather delude himself into thinking they will help him.  Someone tell me, please, one decent idea the right wing has had in the last century.

    Until Obama grows a set of REAL inaugural balls, not much is going to happen.

    Strong Stimulus Needed When 71,000 Jobs Are Cut (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by john horse on Tue Jan 27, 2009 at 08:55:42 PM EST
    in a single day.  If we don't stop this economic hemorrhaging we will soon have an economic depression on our hands.  BTD is right, Obama's stimulus plan is too timid.  We need a stronger economic stimulus and we need it now.

    CBO report (none / 0) (#3)
    by MD on Tue Jan 27, 2009 at 09:35:49 AM EST
    A bit too buried in the story associated with the report is that a large amount of it will not be spent until 2010.

    That makes this more like pork and less like stimulus.

    No it doesn't (5.00 / 2) (#8)
    by BernieO on Tue Jan 27, 2009 at 11:12:42 AM EST
    This downturn is expected to last a LONG time so it is important to have some of the stimulus kicking in next year and even later.

    Also pork is money that is spent on things that do little or nothing to benefit our society. Spending on things like needed infrastructure development and maintenance, important scientific research, promising alternative energy technologies, education, etc. are all things that make our economy stronger in the long run.  

    Government spending can be a very effective engine for economic growth if it is spent on the right kinds of things. For example, one of the most important developments in the increased productivity of the last 20 years was the development of the internet, which was created by the government with the leadership of people like Al Gore (a well-kept secret). After all the debt our government ran up on the New Deal, then on WWII, not to mention the Marshall Plan, our economy boomed in the fifties. Part of that boom was due to the GI's getting educations with the government funded GI bill and part was due to the government building the interstate highway system.

    Pork vs investment is just like the difference between a person with few resources taking out a loan for an expensive car vs. a loan to go to medical school. The first debt only worsens the person's situation, the second paves the way for a prosperous future because it is an investment in that future.

    Parent

    Is there anything in the plan... (none / 0) (#4)
    by EL seattle on Tue Jan 27, 2009 at 10:25:35 AM EST
    ... about continuing the consumer rebates for digital-to-analog television converters?  I thought I read that they were adding a significant amount of money to that program, but I don't see that cost mentioned in the .pdf.

    (Of course, it may have been phrased in a way I wasn't expecting.)

    I really enjoyed (none / 0) (#7)
    by lilburro on Tue Jan 27, 2009 at 11:11:27 AM EST
    dday's post on the bill today.  Here's the kicker:

    House Republican Leader John A. Boehner and his No. 2, Whip Eric Cantor, told their rank-and-file members Tuesday morning during a closed-door meeting to oppose the bill when it comes to the floor Wednesday, according to an aide familiar with the discussion. Boehner told members that he's voting against the stimulus, and Cantor told the assembled Republicans that there wasn't any reason for them to support the measure, according to another person in the room. Cantor and his whip team are going to urge GOP members to oppose it.


    Stimulus (none / 0) (#10)
    by koshembos on Tue Jan 27, 2009 at 12:05:07 PM EST
    The original stimulus is still way short of the needed. We are probably talking about $1.5 trillion as a minimal stimulus to lift the country out of the deep hole created by Bush and his Wall Street goons.

    LarryInNYC is right, the original stimulus was already watered down by Obama to get the Republicans goons happier. This process hasn't stopped yet. Though, Obama can easily ask for more money later and may be hiding it already from the goons.

    Another item that is of some worry is the presence of items, e.g. $2 million for DC mall renovation, that shouldn't be there. Their addition to job creation has to move from DC, with very low unemployment, to states such as Michigan where they are needed.

    This goes beyond (5.00 / 1) (#11)
    by cal1942 on Tue Jan 27, 2009 at 12:18:56 PM EST
    ideology.  This is a "Leninist" type strategy for attempting to cripple the administration and destroy its ability to govern in spite of the consequences to the nation. This is what the Republican party has degenerated into.

    Fortunately the GOP can't really obstruct in the House as long as the Democrats are united.

    In the Senate they can filibuster but more Republican seats are up in 2010 than Democratic seats.  A halfway intelligent Democratic leadership in the Senate and a determined White House should be able to dust off any Republican obstruction efforts.

    But, we'll see.

    Parent

    Or, the original stimulus is insufficient (none / 0) (#12)
    by dk on Tue Jan 27, 2009 at 01:12:44 PM EST
    because Obama and his advisors do not believe in having anything bigger.  No one seems to want to consider this possibility, but it seems as reasonable an explanation as anything else.

    Parent
    To all, esp Anne & Bernie (none / 0) (#14)
    by DFLer on Tue Jan 27, 2009 at 03:53:53 PM EST
    You might be interested in reading the current Daily Howler for an interesting view of both the off/on CBO report and to "dominance" of GOP on the airwaves....(in the case of Sunday talk shows...not.)

    There doesn't seem to be much stimulus (none / 0) (#16)
    by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Wed Jan 28, 2009 at 02:14:25 PM EST

    in this stimulus bill.

    A stimulus for the economy should include some reduction in the cost of economic activity.

    A reduction in the cost of labor normally happens in a recession as the unemployment bebefits run out.  A reduction in labor cost could be achieved immediately with a payroll tax holiday.  Reducing the cost of labor means greater utilization of labor.

    The feds could enact policies that reduce the cost of energy.  Opening up new areas for drilling will at the very least create good payong long lasting jobs now.  

    Delaying mandates for high cost alternatives like wind and solar electricity until the economy improves and can better bear the greatly added cost.  

    Ditto goes for corn ethanol and bio-diesel.  Adding cost to any product that moves by truck is a way to reduce rather than expand economic activity.

    The CBO Report On The Economic Stimulus Plan | 16 comments (16 topical)

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