The Southeastern Conference, season in and season out, is the best conference in college football. This year the SEC seems to be a bit down. The Big 12 appeared to be having an up year, before the bowl results came in. It now appears the Big 12 was not as good as advertised. That said, I think Oklahoma is as good as advertised - on offense. The Oklahoma defense has to be considered a big question mark.
On paper, it seems to me the oddsmakers have the betting line about right - Florida a 4 to 5 point favorite. But bowl games have a way of surprising you. The keys to the game tonight are, in my view:
(1) No turnovers for Oklahoma, turnovers by Florida. Oklahoma can not turn the ball over. If Bradford throws a bushel of interceptions or if the OU backs leave the ball on the ground, it seems to me that not only has Florida proven to be opportunistic when opponents turn the ball over, Florida has been very efficient in the red zone (inside the opponent's 25 yard line) - they score TDs, not kick FGs. this is anther way of saying the Oklahoma has to be efficient with its possessions. To win this game, in my view, Oklahoma has to score over 40 points. I do not believe its defense can hold Florida to less than 35. On the other hand, I can see Florida's defense holding Oklahoma to 4 touchdowns.
(2) No special teams TDs. Oklahoma can not allow Florida to score on its special teams. The Oklahoma defense will have enough trouble stopping Florida from the line of scrimmage. It can not allow special teams or defensive TDs from Florida. Seems obvious I know, but it is my view that Oklahoma will have a lot of trouble even slowing down Florida from from the line of scrimmage. Here's why:
(3) Florida's running game. Florida averaged 6.0 yards per carry (playing in the SEC) compared to Oklahoma's 4.8 per carry (while playing in the defenseless Big 12.) Florida has the much better running game in my view - especially if . . .
(4) Percy Harvin is really healthy. The most explosive player in the game, if he is healthy, will be Percy Harvin. Harvin averaged 8.8 yards per carry (as well as 17 yards per reception) and scored 16 touchdowns. While missing 3 games. The flip side of a healthy Harvin is the fact that Oklahoma will be missing its fine running back DeMarco Murray. I believe Oklahoma will have trouble running the ball against Florida. Which puts it all on the shoulders of . . .
(5) Sam Bradford, the Oklahoma QB and the Heisman trophy winner. Bradford is finishing one of the most remarkable seasons ever turned in by a college QB. He threw for 48 TDs, completed 68% of his passes and averaged over 10 yards per pass attempt (compared to Tebow's 28 TDs, 65% completion rate and 9.3 yards per pass attempt.) Bradford is the real deal and he has tremendous receivers - especially TE Jermaine Gresham, who causes big matchup problems for any defense.
However, Florida has the best pass defense Bradford will face all year. The coverage will be better than anything Bradford has seen. The biggest question for the Florida defense will be how well its front can put pressure on Bradford, who basically has not been touched the entire season in the pocket. This is not a vintage Florida front line. It will be interesting to see if Oklahoma exploits potential Florida blitz packages.
For Oklahoma to win, in my view, Sam Bradford will have to play possibly the best game of his career. The Oklahoma running game will be suspect. The Oklahoma defense is suspect. And the Oklahoma special teams are just bad.
If this is Sam Bradford's night, Oklahoma will have a good chance to win. Otherwise, I think Florida wins.
I think the Gators win it tonight. I certainly hope they do. Go Gators!!
Speaking for me only