Monday Afternoon Open Thread
Did Bill Belicheck make the right call last night? For those who missed it, New England led the Colts 34-28 with 2:11 to go. On 4th and 2 at the NE 28, Belicheck decided to go for it instead of punting.
The argument for Belicheck takes the view that the Pats had about a 60% chance of making the first down (and sealing the game) and failing on the attempt provided the Colts a 53% chance of scoring a touchdown - giving the Pats a 79% chance of winning using Belicheck's alternative as opposed to punting, where the Colts would have had a 30% chance of scoring and winning (or a 70% chance of the Pats winning.) By this measure, Belicheck improved the Pats' chance of winning by 9%.
Here's my problem with these numbers - this was not an average "4th and 2" (For good and bad - Brady is obviously better than the average QB, the Colts would sell out to stop the conversion as opposed to a 4 and 2 at midfield in the 1st quarter, etc.) The numbers of much more interest, if they are available, are the specific results of the Pats and the Colts in the relevant scenarios - conversions on 4th down in similar situations, Colts' success in the last 2 minutes needing a TD, Pats defensive success in stopping 2 minutes drives, etc. "Historic numbers" involving all teams are not particularly relevant imo to the decision Belicheck had to make. Without knowing those numbers, it seems impossible to evaluate the Belicheck decision (of course, having failed on the 4th down and having the Colts score the winning TD, we can all say he should have punted, but that is not evaluating his decision.)
This is an Open Thread.
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