If you are even reading this, you know the main players - Tebow and Spikes for Florida. Ingram and Mount Cody for the Tide. The players in this game are great. Clearly the two best teams personnel wise in the country (Texas is a distant 3rd imo.) But here's a closer look.
Florida's Offense. I am going to commit heresy. I am going to tell you that the biggest problem the Florida offense has had this year has been the quarterback. No one say it - at least not very loud - Tebow has played poorly this year. He has been a significantly worse player this year than last.
There is no doubt that the loss of Percy Harvin, the best player in college football the 3 previous years (WHEN he was on the field) would hurt any offense. But Tebow's poor play also was a huge drag. He has thrown the ball poorly. He has run with less authority. He has made very poor decisions. He is not a worthy Heisman candidate. It is a bad joke that he is in the conversation. (For the record, Toby Gerhart should the easy winner imo. McCoy will win though.)
All that said, Tebow has been a clutch player, even this year. The biggest drive of the year was at the end of the Arkansas game, when Florida's dream of an undefeated season seemed almost over. Tebow played his best football on that drive. And he has played well at the end of the season.
Florida's running game is pretty solid, with good backs and a strong offensive line led by the experienced Pouncy twins. UF's receivers are Ok, but Aaron Hernandez, the tight end, is something special, and he could be the difference in the game today.
Alabama Defense. The biggest problem for Florida's offense is the defense they will be facing - the ferocious unit for Alabama, led by Cody and the best linebacker in college football, Rolando McClain. It will be a heck of a challenge for Tebow and the Florida offense.
Alabama Offense. This is, imo, the weakest unit of the main four (Florida has a slight edge in the special teams, though the Alabama FG kicker is outstanding.) While Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson are the best tandem of running backs in the country, the offensive line is average, Julio Jones and the WR are not as good as Florida's outstanding secondary and Peek is just an adequate TE. If Florida's defense plays to its level. Alabama will have a very hard time moving the ball.
The Florida defense has been outstanding all year long. The secondary is the best in the country imo. The two corners, Joe Haden and Janoris Jenkins (from Pahokee, Florida) are the best man to man cover corners in college football.
What their man coverage abilities provide is freedom for Charlie Strong, the Florida Defensive Coordinator, to use any number of schemes to stack the box to stop the Ingram and Richardson running game. This is the key to the game.
If Alabama can not run the ball, I do not see how the Tide can win the game. Bama QB McIlroy is simply not good enough to beat the great Florida secondary, even with Carlos Dunlap, Florida's star defensive end - suspended for the game. If Florida had Dunlap, it would really be impossible, and McIlroy would be on the ground most of the game. Without him, I still do not see McIlroy being successful.
Buuuuut, if Bama runs the ball with consistent effectiveness, they have a great chance of winning this game.
It's a close call. Two great coaches. Two great defenses. Some great offensive players. Two very very tough teams with no quit in them. Florida is a 6 point favorite in the game - on the strength of the betting public's love for Tebow and Florida's great record against the spread last year. It's a FG game at best. As a betting proposition, I would take Alabama (+6).
I have, of course, lived and died, with the Gators for a long time. It's insane I know. But that's the way it is. They've been my team since I was 7. Can't stop now.
In other games today, I like Texas (-14) over Nebraska, GA Tech (-1) over Clemson, Pitt (+2.5> over Cincinnati, Rutgers (-2) over West Virginia, Fresno (+3) over Illinois, Zona (+7) over USC, Cal (-7) over UW, Wisconsin (-12) over Hawaii, East Carolina (+3) over Houston, and Connecticut (-7.5) over South Florida.
Let's Go Gators!
This is an Open Thread.
