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"It's Going To Blow Up"

Boy, the AIG Financial Products division really is filled with cluelessness and chutzpah. An "AIG senior financial products Manager:

"It's going to blow up," said a senior Financial Products manager, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak for the company. "I have a horrible, horrible, horrible feeling that this is going to end badly."

It's going to blow up? You mean it hasn't already? This is going to end badly? You mean it hasn't already? At this point, AIG needs a compelling argument why it should not just be shut down. This type of talking ain't it.

Speaking for me only

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    Listening to NPR yesterday (none / 0) (#1)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 06:31:21 AM EST
    while at my chores.  NPR always sounds so level headed but people are getting really really upset about this.  It does seem that retention of persons who were the designers and sellers of these fricken fracken newage complex derivatives is something to sweat about a bit because if they walk who else can figure out what it was they did and how long will that take?  Building castles in the air has taken a giant toll that most never anticipated.  I anticipated it some but in truth I never suspected how substanceless things were really getting.  This portion of our meltdown seems to coincide to a great degree with what happened to us in the 30's as well, when speculation became its own commodity and then everything blew up.  My spouse sat on the sofa shaking his head last night about the bonuses and mumbling to himself that someone is going to get lynched.

    Did you hear Sen. McConnell (none / 0) (#18)
    by oculus on Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 12:46:11 PM EST
    pontificating about the failure to impose conditions?

    Parent
    I didn't (none / 0) (#20)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 06:35:32 PM EST
    but you have never failed to come across with the goods so I will seek it out.  My staunch Republican neighbor came by today to tell me that Shelby is going to be at a neighborhood diner on Saturday and that she will put the note on my mailbox as to the actual time.  The food is pretty good there so I'm thinking that we will go.  I want to hear what the man has to say and I want to hear what my neighbors have to say as well.  Right before I left for Atlanta too this weekend something came in the mail.  Josh came home over a week ago talking about a state official who came to his school that he loved and sometimes parents just don't hear stuff...sheesh.  Anyhow something arrived from Troy King, Alabama's Attorney General.  Inside was a beautiful photo of him and Josh and another little girl in Joshua's class with a handwritten note.  I told Josh he was getting in bed with the enemy, and I was only kidding but he got real flustered at me.  He told me that Troy King is a really terrific person who cares about kids and that he felt very safe with him and around him and Josh is a good judge of such things so Troy King is probably a pretty damned good dude outside of being a Republican :)  Shelby though..........what we can do to save Shelby from Shelby?

    Parent
    Troy Kins is one smart politician. (none / 0) (#21)
    by oculus on Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 07:23:15 PM EST
    Rope in the kids before their parents even know what's going on.  Will you campaign for pre-waivers before schools let kids listen to opposite party pols?

    Parent
    oculus, what opposite party pols (5.00 / 1) (#22)
    by Militarytracy on Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 09:34:30 AM EST
    down here in Coffee CO can you be talking about :)?  I don't think that it is an accident that during this trying time in Republican reality that suddenly Troy King and Shelby are popping up to commune with the serfs in my neck of the woods.  Mother Rucker is large and keeps Enterprise, Daleville, Ozark completely safe and dry in this horrible storm so far while propping up Dothan, Geneva, New Brockton etc.  Elements of the military strongly support Conservatives as well as many elements of the native community around here and with so much military money pouring in none of these people have had to deal with hardships that would empower them to start asking themselves hard questions about the policies of those they have supported.  If you want to feel good about being a Republican representative of some kind and a guaranteed decent photo op of some kind you are high tailing it here right now.

    Parent
    Have you considered becoming (none / 0) (#23)
    by oculus on Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 10:53:36 AM EST
    a newspaper columnist a la Molly Ivins?  I think you have a future, except for the fact newspapers are folding fast!

    Parent
    You know it's bad when.... (none / 0) (#2)
    by jbindc on Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 07:12:25 AM EST
    MSNBC is reporting that this turmoil is depleting Obama's political capital.

    WASHINGTON - President Obama's apparent inability to block executive bonuses at insurance giant AIG has dealt a sharp blow to his young administration and is threatening to derail both public and congressional support for his ambitious political agenda.

    Politicians in both parties flocked to express outrage over $165 million in bonuses paid out to executives at the company, demanding answers from the president and swamping yesterday's rollout of his efforts to spark lending to small businesses.

    The populist anger at the executives who ran their firms into the ground is increasingly blowing back on Obama, whom aides yesterday described as having little recourse in the face of legal contracts that guaranteed those bonuses.

    SNIP

    But the bonus issue, in particular, is hounding Obama as he pursues his larger goals, in part because of the president's own repeated declarations of outrage -- offered again yesterday -- aimed especially at the firms that are feeding at the public trough.

    In February, Obama announced tough new restrictions on executive compensation that promised an end to massive salaries for executives of failing companies. Similar rules were eventually written into legislation and hailed as evidence that executive compensation would be checked.

    But reports about the latest AIG bonuses quickly undermined whatever political capital Obama has earned with his past efforts.



    Dumb report (none / 0) (#3)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 07:31:32 AM EST
    Depending on what Obama wants to do, this could considerably strengthen his political capital.

    Parent
    I don't think (none / 0) (#7)
    by jbindc on Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 08:04:34 AM EST
    it will actually hurt or help him. Even if his "toughness" works and AIG doesn't pay the bonuses, Jane and John Doe on Main Street aren't going to care and hold him in higher esteem.  They will have already moved on, because then it will be a one day story (except for the bloviators / cheerleaders on MSNBC's nightly lineup, but since no one watches them, they will be preaching to the converted already).

    Parent
    "It's going to blow up? " (none / 0) (#4)
    by NYShooter on Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 07:47:02 AM EST
    "You mean it hasn't already? This is going to end badly? You mean it hasn't already?"
    ****************

    Answer: No, and No.

    A little over a year ago, I was hanging out with a bunch of theoretical nuclear physicists at Stanford. To supplement their dreary incomes doing pure research in their various towers of academia, they put their super computers to work during their off hours doing price, volume, and volatility calculations for hedge funds. The buzz among these quants last year was that we were in la-la land.

    Now those guys know a little something about nuclear fission, and their computers reach speeds approaching 500 teraflops (don't try; that's fast), so when they squeal in morbid wonder, " weeeee, we lost it," what they mean is that the world of derivatives has matastized to a place approaching infinity, and that it's grown beyond our ability to even guess how big it is.

    As bad as things are, IMO, the destruction has barely begun.

    Paul Krugman may not be a physicist, but he was right in his stomach churning prediction that the Obama camp was trying to put out a forest fire with a garden hose, and that consequently we will have many years of gloom ahead of us..

    It's already blown up but we haven't (none / 0) (#19)
    by Slado on Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 02:58:39 PM EST
    felt the shockwaves yet.  We've seen the plume in the distance, the bright light but the shock waves are still on their way.

    Here's what I know.  Meeting with my financial planner the other day he showed me a great chart similar to the one in this article.  Basically it showed the total debt in this country (gov't, private, household, buisnes etc...) was 370% of GDP.   370%!!!!  Consumer debt (that is the money you and me owe) was 102% and falling in the last few months to 97%.

    Compared to the Great Depression these bubbles are more then double the debt rate that cuased the crashes in the markets etc... in that era.  The government then attempted to "stimulate" the eoncomy and then we entered into a war.  In the end however the economy de-leveraged itself back to more traditional levels vs. GDP until as the article explained we decided to change the rules so we could fuel our economy with debt.

    The economy is attempting to deleverage itself again.  We have a long way to go down from 370%.  We can't go sideways looking at past levels so we can either add more debt as our politicians are attempting to do or ride it down which is what the economy is naturally attempting to do.

    This reality will eventually sink in but one thing is certian and BTD and others seem to miss this point.   We are broke.  We (and by we I mean everyone collectively) cannot add more debt to get out of this.  We need to increase production, productiviy and stop borrowing money we don't have to maintain a level of living and commerce that was never economically viable in the first place.

    Parent

    "It's going to blow up? " (none / 0) (#5)
    by NYShooter on Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 07:47:02 AM EST
    "You mean it hasn't already? This is going to end badly? You mean it hasn't already?"
    ****************

    Answer: No, and No.

    A little over a year ago, I was hanging out with a bunch of theoretical nuclear physicists at Stanford. To supplement their dreary incomes doing pure research in their various towers of academia, they put their super computers to work during their off hours doing price, volume, and volatility calculations for hedge funds. The buzz among these quants last year was that we were in la-la land.

    Now those guys know a little something about nuclear fission, and their computers reach speeds approaching 500 teraflops (don't try; that's fast), so when they squeal in morbid wonder, " weeeee, we lost it," what they mean is that the world of derivatives has matastized to a place approaching infinity, and that it's grown beyond our ability to even guess how big it is.

    As bad as things are, IMO, the destruction has barely begun.

    Paul Krugman may not be a physicist, but he was right in his stomach churning prediction that the Obama camp was trying to put out a forest fire with a garden hose, and that consequently we will have many years of gloom ahead of us..

    Sorry n/t (none / 0) (#6)
    by NYShooter on Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 07:47:35 AM EST
    It blew up already... (none / 0) (#8)
    by kdog on Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 08:43:10 AM EST
    talk about living in never never land....and I thought I had a Peter Pan complex.

    It already ended badly...we're just funding a very expensive stall tactic.

    You have no idea (none / 0) (#11)
    by gyrfalcon on Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 10:04:11 AM EST
    how much, much, much worse this could get.

    Parent
    Either do you... (none / 0) (#12)
    by kdog on Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 10:13:43 AM EST
    What is worse...AIG failing or AIG and the US Govt. failing?

    Parent
    I liked this solution (none / 0) (#9)
    by Demi Moaned on Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 08:52:18 AM EST
    from DHinMI over at Daily Kos:
    Congressman Peters' bill would create a 60 percent surtax on bonuses over $10,000 to any company in which the U.S. government has a 79 percent or greater equity stake in the company. Currently, AIG is the only company that meets this threshold. The 60 percent surtax would be added to the normal income tax rate, meaning that bonuses received this year by AIG executives paying the top 35 percent tax rate would be taxed at 95 percent. The remaining 5 percent would likely be paid in state and local taxes, so taxpayers would fully recover any AIG bonuses paid in 2009.

    The Congressman Peters referenced is a freshman Democrat from Michigan (9th CD).

    The idea emerged simultaneously (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by andgarden on Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 10:16:31 AM EST
    from Sandy Levinson and Carol Maloney.

    Parent
    Good! Maybe it will gain some traction (5.00 / 1) (#14)
    by Demi Moaned on Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 10:23:04 AM EST
    It seems to me a very elegant solution to the whole business.

    Parent
    Again I say (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by Steve M on Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 10:29:38 AM EST
    Carolyn! ;)

    Parent
    Does she insist on that? (none / 0) (#16)
    by andgarden on Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 10:33:11 AM EST
    Serious question. I don't want to insult her all over TL!

    Parent
    I dunno (5.00 / 1) (#17)
    by Steve M on Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 10:52:41 AM EST
    in all those years as her constituent, I don't think I ever heard her called Carol!  But I am not the chivalrous defender of her honor, I'm just sayin.

    Parent