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Gross Domestic "Win Shares" And Productivity Losses

Nate Silver writes:

Squeezing the super-rich is not a panacea. Although the inequity in the income distribution is pretty stark in America today, there just aren't that many people earning over $1 million, or over $5 million, and you probably can't squeeze them that much further before you start to run into some serious issues with productivity losses [. . .]

(Emphasis supplied.) For those of you who do not know, Silver is a wizard sabremetrician, who made his name as statistical analyst regarding baseball. The Godfather of sabremetricians was Bill James, who developed a concept called win shares - which attempts to describe each players contributions to the total wins of the team.

I was thinking about this when Silver expressed his view of expected productivity losses due to higher tax rates for millionaires. As a general proposition, it is unremarkable to say that higher taxes lead to lower productivity on an individualized basis (how the tax revenues are spent could of course offset that individualized loss - i..e - education, infrastructure, research etc.) But is it specifically true in an meaningful way with regard to increasing the marginal tax rate paid by millionaires? To wit, what is the "win share" produced by millionaires to the gross domestic product and how would that be reduced if their tax rates went up? Let's consider on the flip.

Yesterday, Paul O'Neill and Robert Rubin were on Fareed Zakaria's Sunday show and they said some interesting things. Some I agreed with. Some I did not. But what was running through my mind the whole time was what would Bob Rubin and Paul O'Neill had done differently in their lives if the marginal tax rate on income over 1 million dollars was higher than it actually was.

I venture to say there is nothing they would have done differently. But maybe they are highminded men who are not typical of this special class of productive people who make more than a million dollars a year.

But we don't need to think too hard on this really, do we? We know that the highest marginal tax rate during the Eisenhower Administration was over 90%. And what was the productivity drag on the American economy? Well, if you look at the GDP numbers, there was none.

Next, let's explore a different sabermetric concept - VORP, or Value Over Replacement Player. The concept is intended to identify the differential between a player and how a replacement would perform. So imagine for a moment that the Masters of the Universe like Rubin and O'Neill went to Galt Gulch and completely deprived the nation of their productivity as a result of an increase in the marginal tax rate for millionaires - how much would we lose if a Mere Mortal took their place? I do not know how this can be measured frankly. But I think it is almost certainly less than generally thought. Sabrmetricians proved that the value of one players in baseball was overrated. I think the same is true of Masters of the Universe./p>

But more importantly, that we do not know what MIGHT be lost is my actual point. Silver, a rigorous mathematician, speaks of "productivity losses" resulting from an increase in the marginal tax rate for millionaires and, at least to my knowledge, their is no data that actually supports this notion. Obviously there should be intuitive limits to this (though Ike may disagree), the closer you get to a 100% tax rate, the less productivity you will get. But at 40%? Hell, at 50% - is this true?

Color me skeptical.

Speaking for me only

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    Any loss of productivity from the millionaires (5.00 / 2) (#7)
    by steviez314 on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 02:28:08 PM EST
    might be made up by increased productivity from the tax accountants.

    Heh (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 02:30:28 PM EST
    I am soooo ready to call that Ayn Randian (5.00 / 1) (#10)
    by jeffinalabama on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 02:54:44 PM EST
    bluff. Just look around the world, that model doesn't hold up.

    Let them buy an island, just make sure it's not one of the beauties in the Caribbean. Has Krakatoa re-emerged yet? I'd be willing to let them homestead.

    Reduced taxes on million-dollar income simply doesn't make sense. But elites will be elites. Industry elites just don't seem to have any sense of noblesse oblige.

    Let them go... (none / 0) (#19)
    by kdog on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 03:55:57 PM EST
    may be we can reverse the outsourcing trend...bring back some of the good manufacturing jobs, start building sh*t again, and let them flip paper and run scams outta India...I'm sure what the masters of the universe will do for a million, a budding Indian motu will do for 500k:)

    Parent
    Excellent point ! (none / 0) (#24)
    by Militarytracy on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 06:43:48 PM EST
    There is no data to support the notion and a world full of places where the model can obviously be seen to not hold up......at all.

    Parent
    Yeah, that was my question when (none / 0) (#32)
    by ruffian on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 08:51:52 PM EST
    reading Atlas Shrugged many years ago. Even if these are the masters of the universe, aren't the 2nd tier good enough to do just fine for the world? Always reminds me of the prima donnas at work who think they can't be replaced.

    Parent
    Nate had a wider point of view than expressed here

    First let me say that the rich are different.  They aren't like us.  To try to assume we would know what they would do is usually foolish unless you have studied rich people.

    I can make a few easy observations:

    Rule one.  The Rich like being rich, and more importantly like to feel rich.  They feel they deserve it.

    Rule two.  They hate taxes.  They resent taxes.  They go to great lengths to resist and avoid taxes.  They don't want to believe and don't believe that taxes and death are inevitable. They hire smart people and unscrupulous people to help them resist taxes.  They even do very foolish things sometimes in their endeavors.

    Rule three.  There are many ways they can avoid taxes and the Congress of the US is very helpful with the tax laws for they seem to consider themselves more closely aligned with the rich than with the ordinary people.  ((Here I am not talking about their speeches which have not much bearing on their personal behavior.))

    I will just bring up one example of this which I always thought was kind of funny.
    We now have a minimum tax.  It was mainly enacted because there were some very rich people who didn't pay any taxes at all.  Most regular people felt very satisfied when the rich were required to pay some minimum taxes.

    In actuality the rich people made less money  overall putting their money into vehicles (bonds and such) so they had little or no tax obligation.  

    When they had to start paying taxes again they took their money out of these type vehicles which mainly existed because they were desirable to society as a whole and the rich started making more money overall and starting working on protecting that money in other ways that weren't so obvious and apparently legal.

    Another problem that Nate might be alluding to is that the rich people are less willing to "give to various good causes" and to invest in good causes or to invest at all when they feel (rightly or not) that they are under an onerous tax burden.

    Instead of investing in American industry, they might decide that land or property investment both domestic and foreign is a better long term deal with taxes deferred until a better day.  Likewise investment in foreign industry and endeavors has advantages.  

    Either way the net value to America from subtracting these losses of investment and charities from any tax gain usually shows up as a negative.

    US Capitalism is an Abomination (5.00 / 1) (#20)
    by pluege2 on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 04:49:01 PM EST
    FACT: 10% of Americans own 75% of the nation's wealth.

    Even the Yankees only win 25% of the World Series and many hate them for it.

    Dems used to have (5.00 / 0) (#23)
    by jondee on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 05:21:59 PM EST
    powerful, ignore-at-your-own-risk pressure from the bottom, before they began colluding with the 'Thugs and Wall St to defang organized labor, which was near 50% of the labor force during FDR's tenure..

    And btw, this revisionist, damage control on the part of yuppie Clintonistas, the purpose of which seems to be to make Clinton somehow a "people's pol" in the FDR mold, is utter b.s.

    Parent

    So what's the solution? (none / 0) (#29)
    by Slado on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 07:26:32 PM EST
    If government owns most of the wealth then that 25% number drops to about 1%.

    Capitalism is a lousy system but it's the best one we've got.

    Parent

    To answer your, well, not quite question (none / 0) (#1)
    by scribe on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 01:58:11 PM EST
     
    But what was running through my mind the whole time was what would Bob Rubin and Paul O'Neill had done differently in their lives if the marginal tax rate on income over 1 million dollars was higher than it actually was.

    The answer would be
    "a hell of a lot less damage".

    And as to this not-quite-question:

    So imagine for a moment that the Masters of the Universe like Rubin and O'Neill went to Galt Gulch and completely deprived the nation of their productivity as a result of an increase in the marginal tax rate for millionaires - how much would we lose if a Mere Mortal took their place?

    The answer would be:
    "A net gain, if only from the manufacture and sale of party favors for their bon voyage shindig."

    And I'm quite serious on both these points.

    It's funny (5.00 / 1) (#3)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 02:09:46 PM EST
    because one of the criticisms James faced for his "Win Shares" system was it did not take into account "Loss Shares" - or how a player hurt a team's chances to win.

    I think you are getting at that point in my analogy.

    Parent

    Some players (none / 0) (#21)
    by scribe on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 04:52:25 PM EST
    are saddled, rightly or wrongly, with the label of "losers" or "can't win the big game" or "always comes up just short", e.g. Jason Giambi, Mike Mussina, Alfonso Soriano, Mike Pagliorulo, anyone while on the Mets.  They come to a winning team and you know that team will only make the list of "teams that lost the deciding game" regardless of how great their individual numbers are.  It's like they are the mutual cousin of theJoe Btfsplks and Pigpens of the world, always under a dark cloud and followd everywhere by a cloud of dust.

    Others just have that luck and clutch-ness to be in the right place at the right time and win, win, win, e.g., Jeter, Mo Rivera, Paul O'Neill, Pettite, Yogi.

    It would be nice if someone were to quantify that, both losing and winning, though I suspect the losing quantification would likely draw a libel lawsuit sooner or later.

    Parent

    Pags! (none / 0) (#25)
    by Dadler on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 07:07:35 PM EST
    Haven't heard "Pagliorulo" uttered in far too long.

    Parent
    Mussina Succeeded in Some VERY big Spots (none / 0) (#34)
    by pluege2 on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 09:22:24 PM EST
    not often enough to have a big game rep, but a few times in his Yankee career he really came through. One particular playoff game against Boston, Clemens had loaded the bases with no outs. They brought in Mussina; got out of the inning with no runs and the Yankees won the game.

    Parent
    But as good as he was (none / 0) (#38)
    by scribe on Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 04:38:26 AM EST
    he never closed the deal.  He got to 2-2 with two outs in the bottom of the 9th (on 9/2/01 on ESPN's Sunday night national game) pitching a perfect game against Boston before coughing up a single to Carl Frickin Everett.
    He got to the WS twice, in 2001 and 2003, and never won one.

    AS to Pags, you could see - for whatever reason - the teams he was on improve in terms of success shortly after he left, and stop winning the minute he arrived.  Don't get me wrong - he had a great reputation as a positive, popular, good teammate. It's just that a dark cloud followed teams he was on.

    Parent

    Wrong on number of millionaires (none / 0) (#2)
    by BackFromOhio on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 02:08:32 PM EST
    According to report by Spectrem Group, reported all over - Huffpo, aol, etc., number of householdsin the U.S. with net worth of $1 million or more -- EXCLUDING value of primary residence, grew 16% in 2009, while the number of individuals with net worth of $5 million or more grew 17%!

    PS - number of individuals (none / 0) (#4)
    by BackFromOhio on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 02:09:59 PM EST
    with net worth of $1 million or more in 2009- 7.8 million, and number with net worth of $5 million or more 980,000.

    Parent
    Ah (none / 0) (#6)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 02:11:46 PM EST
    I think Silver was thinking in terms of income, not net worth - though it is true I used the term millionaires, which fits your reasoning.

    Parent
    Finally got raw numbers (none / 0) (#44)
    by BackFromOhio on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 08:32:58 PM EST
    From an item at abcnews: Capgemini issued report showing number of millionaires in ten major U.S. metro areas increased 17.5% in 2009 over 2008, with NYC having greatest number -- 667,000, for an increase of 18.7% over prior year.

    The swelling ranks of the millionaires' club comes even as a growing number of people, nearly 40 million at last count, are living in poverty.

    Link

    Parent

    just less than 3% of the U.S. population? (none / 0) (#12)
    by bocajeff on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 03:11:51 PM EST
    Just the numbers for (none / 0) (#45)
    by BackFromOhio on Mon Aug 16, 2010 at 08:51:51 PM EST
    ten metro areas; so I guess excludes all the uber-wealthy in areas of TX, Montana, etc.

    Parent
    You mean Silver is wrong (none / 0) (#5)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 02:10:59 PM EST
    I'll take your word for it. I did not make an assertion on his factual assumption on this point.

    I was taking issue with his assertions on productivity losses.

    Parent

    Seeing that some of the (none / 0) (#46)
    by BackFromOhio on Mon Aug 16, 2010 at 08:53:28 PM EST
    stated assumptions were so off base, I just fell in formation on your point -- an easy sell.

    Parent
    There is no data to support the notion (none / 0) (#8)
    by Militarytracy on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 02:28:13 PM EST
    Our infrastructure is also their infrastructure though, and they are not equally invested.  Is it any wonder they care little for what they are not equally "invested" in?

    The "millionaires" now live in a bizarro universe where they are feel like they share no reality with anyone else, and it shows.  They are destroying their own world but are blessedly being shielded from such horrible realities for the short term.

    Hmm, I think you are missing something (none / 0) (#11)
    by me only on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 03:04:40 PM EST
    The tax was revised in the early 60's and the highest marginal rate was lowered to 70%.  However, by 1968 it was noted that at least 155 individuals who earned about the top marginal tax bracket that paid nothing in income tax.  Because of this the Alternative Minimum Tax was created.  Trying to ferret out productivity from the Eisenhower years in regards to the tax matter is slightly silly because of this.  We don't know how much tax was really paid because of the highest marginal bracket.

    Additionally, the $400,000 bracket (where the 90% bracket started) in the middle 50's corresponds to something like $3.6 million in today's dollars.  In this range there is very little "income" that does not come from capital gains, which is taxed entirely differently.

    Hmmm (none / 0) (#15)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 03:28:14 PM EST
    So we do not know the effect of the higher marginal tax rates on productivity? So this is in discord with my point how exactly?

    Parent
    Next time I will quote you (none / 0) (#17)
    by me only on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 03:46:46 PM EST
    But we don't need to think too hard on this really, do we? We know that the highest marginal tax rate during the Eisenhower Administration was over 90%. And what was the productivity drag on the American economy? Well, if you look at the GDP numbers, there was none.

    My reply was to note that looking at GDP in the 50's and assuming that there was no loss in productivity because of high marginal is to miss the fact that those rates did not capture much income due to loopholes in the system.

    We do know the total federal tax levied by the US in the post war years.  We also know these numbers for various members of the EU.  In terms of growth the US has outperformed those states.  So maybe lower taxes leads to higher growth.  On the other hand, the Europeans don't WARP much and maybe that explains the difference.

    Parent

    Hmm (none / 0) (#18)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 03:53:04 PM EST
    Unless the loopholes were 100% effective, to wit, no income was subject to the highest marginal rate, then the point stands.

    BTW, I think it probably has a marginal effect at 92%. But at 50%, I think probably not. At 40%, definitely not.

    Parent

    According to the Treasury Department (none / 0) (#13)
    by me only on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 03:24:04 PM EST
    In regards to W's cuts:

    The analysis also shows separately the effects of the President's tax relief in three parts
    reflecting: 1) the lower tax rates on dividends and capital gains; 2) the lower tax rates on
    ordinary income (i.e., the top four rate brackets); and 3) the 10-percent tax rate bracket, higher
    child tax credit, and marriage penalty relief. This decomposition reveals that the tax relief
    components are likely to have very different effects on future economic activity. For example,
    extending just the lower tax rates on dividends and capital gains increases output in the long run
    by 0.4 percent, but when the lower tax rates for the four top income tax brackets are extended as
    well, output increases by a total of 1.1 percent in the long run. Extending the remainder of the
    tax relief - the 10 percent rate, the expansion of the child tax credit, and the reduction in
    marriage penalties - stimulated economic activity during and immediately after the recession and
    served other purposes, such as making the tax code more progressive. However, these elements
    of the tax relief do not have positive growth effects in the longer term in ways that this type of
    model can measure.

    Apparently the treasury department disagrees with you to some degree about the value of the marginal rate.

    Heh (none / 0) (#14)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 03:26:27 PM EST
    How's that model looking now?

    Parent
    Our tax code has nothing to do with our current (none / 0) (#30)
    by Slado on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 07:30:31 PM EST
    economic conundrum.

    How can you claim this to be so?

    How the housing bubble was created is open for debate but the reality is that bubble is why our economy took a tremendous fall in 2007.  One can dither over whether it was too much government involvement or too little but the fact remains the tax rate had nothing to do with it.

    Government would be just a little less broke if it had collected more taxes during the housing boom.  

    Even if Bush had left tax rates where they were the economy was going to crash and burn at the hands of the fools who leant money to people who couldn't pay it back.

    Just throw on top the debate of government taxation to spending ratio.

    Parent

    Oy (none / 0) (#36)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 12:56:19 AM EST
    Answer me this (none / 0) (#39)
    by PatHat on Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 08:56:14 AM EST
    Who got rich during the Bush tax cut years? Not me. I think it was Wall Street and the defense contractors. It was not the people who bought overpriced houses.

    Who lost big when the economic crisis hit? Not me in particular, but regular American workers became unemployed big time. Which Wall Street firms or defense contractors started losing money to offset their "bubble" profits? Not many and the remaining ones made record profits afterwards.

    Look at the winners and losers. Sometimes the regular folk break even, sometimes they lose. Who always wins?

    Parent

    It's possible... (none / 0) (#22)
    by kdog on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 05:06:09 PM EST
    millionaire "productivity" would go up the higher their taxes, as they chase their old take home pay...you can always count on greed. And ingenuity...more dodging and lobbying.

    But what are they gonna do...the vig is what the man says it is...they ain't going on strike, nobody is.  Lazy and pacified.

    Call it human nature-metrics:)

    That's not how it works (none / 0) (#27)
    by Slado on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 07:11:46 PM EST
    If you have the chance to make a set amount of money with a certain amount of work and the government tells you that you will not keep your "fair" share if you work harder depending on who you are you won't.

    Some might, some won't.   Where that number lies is dependent on you.

    Parent

    The thing you must remember (none / 0) (#26)
    by Slado on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 07:09:18 PM EST
    is sometimes lower taxes produce more tax revenue.

    LINK

    Isn't that the point?  The singular focus on the rate of taxes and simply lowering and raising it misses the real point which is does the government take in more or an acceptable level of money versus the amount it plans to spend.

    Tax rates, tax revenue and spending must all be discussed with equal value.  

    One interesting point I made this year is that we don't have to raise rates at all.   You can raise the rates all you want but if the rich can continue to work the system then the government is going to hurt the driver of the economy, buisness, and not collect anymore money from the "rich".

    Cut out the amount of deductions rich people are allowed to use to not pay income taxes.   Why screw with the rate when so much revenue is missed out on in actual income through deductions.

    Also the idea that simply raising taxes will somehow generate more revenue is blown away by the above link.   That only works if the economy existed in a vacuum and didn't react positively or negatively to the change in the tax code.    As the link shows lowering the rate in certain circumstances cause the economy to take off and for the government to collect more revenue.

    In the days of Clinton it didn't matter what he did to rates the economy was booming so revenue went up.    I'm sure there are other examples.

    In our case the economy is not going to grow with more taxes and it might not even grow with less of them unless we get our spending under control.  

    Your link doesn't work (none / 0) (#31)
    by call me Ishmael on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 08:16:03 PM EST
    But I was able to find your report anyway.  It doesn't really prove anything.  For one thing we are not talking about 90% tax rates as we were under Kennedy and for another the Heritage foundation forgets to mention that after his initial tax cuts Reagan proceeded to raise taxes substantially.  A bit of an oversight no?  There is no accounting for inflation in the 1920s and no recognition that the percentage of taxes that the wealthy might pay is a result of the increasing inequality in the society.  I am also not sure that quoting Andrew Mellon is all that persuasive.

    For a somewhat more reasoned discussion of the effects of tax cuts on budgets etc you might see the California Budget Project's report on the subject.

    Parent

    It's not a panacea (none / 0) (#41)
    by Slado on Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 12:39:24 PM EST
    I've studied this enough to know that simply lowering taxes in a vacuum won't do any good.

    My only point is just raising them won't reduce the deficit either.

    The deficit is a result of more money going out then in.  Unless we look at our tax code, rates and spending in relation to how the economy is doing we will keep our deficit up no mater how high we make the rates.

    I think BTD's overall question is a good one.  What's the magic number?

    Parent

    Here's another good reason to keep taxes down (none / 0) (#28)
    by Slado on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 07:24:45 PM EST
    We have more kids!!

    I have three.  If taxes where lower I'd have a 4th!

    And why is that good? (5.00 / 3) (#33)
    by ruffian on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 09:07:02 PM EST
    I'm missing something.

    Parent
    you're not (none / 0) (#40)
    by CST on Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 12:08:33 PM EST
    it's not a good thing at all.  This earth has too many people as it is.

    Replacement rate is more than enough.  And if Slado wonders where we're gonna get our social security from.  The built in solution to any population problems that might arise is... immigration.

    Although I doubt that's the solution the right is looking for :)

    Parent

    It was a joke (none / 0) (#42)
    by Slado on Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 12:41:24 PM EST
    3 kids is more then enough.

    The point of the link was that we are headed to a society like Europe with a stagnant birth rate and a high tax burden.

    Unless we reduce our spending of course.

    Parent

    Europe (none / 0) (#43)
    by CST on Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 12:52:59 PM EST
    you know they can solve those birth rate problems right?

    All they gotta do is let in the furreners.

    Parent

    One Interesting Question (none / 0) (#35)
    by kaleidescope on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 11:36:57 PM EST
    But more importantly, that we do not know what MIGHT be lost is my actual point. Silver, a rigorous mathematician, speaks of "productivity losses" resulting from an increase in the marginal tax rate for millionaires and, at least to my knowledge, their is no data that actually supports this notion.

    And the question is:  With so much riding on these assertions and given the amount of academic resources available, WHY is there "no data that actually supports this notion [that supports productivity losses if there are higher marginal tax rates]"?