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When Is The Bottom?

I'm getting confused - I thought the apologist story for the inadequate economic policies of the Obama Administration was that the Obama Administration saved the economy from hitting bottom. Now Jon Chait tells us that actually Obama had the bad luck of having the bottom hit after he became President:

[A] useful lesson for liberal[s] who compare President Obama with President Roosevelt [--] The latter's political success owed an enormous debt to the fact that he took power after the economy had hit bottom and begun to rebound. Indeed, Obama's situation is more like an election that took place in 1929, leaving him to take the oath of office in early 1930, just as the bottom was falling out.

So 2010 is 1932? Remember that Hoover was in the Presidency for only a matter of months when the Stock Market crashed, starting the Great Depression. In a way, Obama was lucky that the Financial Meltdown did not take place 6 months later - he could really be on his way to being considered a Hoover. Of course, these silly Obama apologias are not to the point - which is that the Obama Administration has done an inadequate job, to say the least, on the economy. Argue if you like that the GOP obstruction is why, but you have to accept the bare facts that the stimulus of February 2009 was inadequate to the task. FDR, perhaps because he could, provided bold leadership on the economy. Obama has not, maybe for good political reasons. But he hasn't.

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    Aha, Chait thinks Obama is Hoover II -- one of the (5.00 / 2) (#4)
    by jawbone on Wed Sep 01, 2010 at 04:40:04 PM EST
    fears of those of us who opposed his nomination.

    ...Obama's situation is more like an election that took place in 1929, leaving him to take the oath of office in early 1930, just as the bottom was falling out.


    The economy did hit bottom just after (none / 0) (#1)
    by tigercourse on Wed Sep 01, 2010 at 01:34:39 PM EST
    Obama was inaugurated. Obama (and honestly Bush) did help keep the economy from hitting an even deeper bottom. Without the much maligned financial system bailouts it would have likely gotten very, very ugly out there.

    If the crash had come 6 months later, he might not have even beaten McCain.

    ".....an even deeper bottom." (5.00 / 6) (#5)
    by NYShooter on Wed Sep 01, 2010 at 04:44:35 PM EST
    We don't know that. When the Titanic hit the iceberg it was women & children first into the lifeboats, not the captain & his senior officers. Yet when our economy hit the "iceberg" it was Goldman, Morgan, and Stanley first, women & children were left to drown.

    There were options available that would have made a recovery fair, logical, and effective. The Government could have taken temporary receivership of the "seven sisters," tens of thousands of regional banks could have mobilized to fill the liquidity needs, and, most importantly, the American public would have joined together to help in the recovery knowing that "we were all in this thing together."

    Instead, we showed everyone who runs the country, who owns the Government, and who does not represent the people.


    Parent

    Yeah (5.00 / 1) (#6)
    by hookfan on Wed Sep 01, 2010 at 05:00:35 PM EST
    The belief about "it could have been worse" is based on a faulty false choice comparison-- what was done vs doing nothing. But the "what if" seems never to be considered-- that of breaking up the TBTF and supporting banks that played by the rules to lend to main street, and setting in place a housing/ mortgage approach designed to help home owners rather than the TBTF players, and a stimulus focused directly on job creation rather than tax cuts.

    Parent
    ....Wow (5.00 / 1) (#7)
    by BTAL on Wed Sep 01, 2010 at 05:12:39 PM EST
    The Government could have taken temporary receivership of the "seven sisters,"

    That would have probably crashed every market in the world.  

    Parent

    I'll see your "Wow," and (5.00 / 1) (#8)
    by NYShooter on Wed Sep 01, 2010 at 05:36:06 PM EST
    Raise you 2 "Bow-Wows."

    ***************

    "That would have probably crashed every market in the world."
    *
    **************

    Instead, The Dow plummeted only 4000 points.

    Try facts; they usually help.

    Parent

    4,000 for the DOW is better than people (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by BTAL on Wed Sep 01, 2010 at 05:47:38 PM EST
    jumping out of windows and massive runs on the banks.

    Parent
    Or the universe imploding (5.00 / 3) (#10)
    by Yman on Wed Sep 01, 2010 at 06:02:07 PM EST
    What???

    We're just makin' stuff up, right?

    Parent

    Seriously, the state of mind that the general (5.00 / 1) (#12)
    by BTAL on Wed Sep 01, 2010 at 06:11:03 PM EST
    public was in during the initial stages of the crisis (Sep/Oct '08), the nationalizing - which is what it would be viewed as - those major banks would have set of a panic stampede.

    Or are you saying that people would have shrugged thinking nothing of it?  That not only the US markets but the other world markets would have just kept chugging on?

    Come on.

    Parent

    I don't know what the reaction would have been (5.00 / 1) (#14)
    by Yman on Wed Sep 01, 2010 at 07:18:54 PM EST
    Neither do you.  The difference being, ...

    ... I'm not pretending otherwise.

    BTW - Google "false dichotomy".  That should help you with the "people shrugging/thinking nothing of it" vs. "crashing every market in the world/people throwing themselves out of windows".

    Parent

    I don't know (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by NYShooter on Wed Sep 01, 2010 at 06:21:14 PM EST
    the thought of Jamie Dimon doing a swan dive from the 47th floor doesn't sound like such a bad thing :)

    Parent
    With reasonable certainty, I do know that. (none / 0) (#15)
    by tigercourse on Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 12:50:54 AM EST
    For some weeks there I was preparing for a full on new Depression. I could feel the gears grinding to a hault, the stock markets were plummeting, people were losing it and the financial system was going crazy. An article in today's Financial Times lays out the estimates - unemployment of 16.5 and a GDP drop of 12 percent rather then 4. That would have been horrible. Can you guess what this country would be like with an unempolyment rate 7 points higher?

    The empty populism of the right and left on this issue had blinded alot of people to the real danger we were in.

    Parent

    False dichotomy (none / 0) (#18)
    by hookfan on Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 12:22:58 PM EST
    Compares doing what was done vs doing nothing. . .

    Parent
    800 billion or 1.5 trillion (none / 0) (#2)
    by jb64 on Wed Sep 01, 2010 at 02:17:13 PM EST
    either way, its a loser politically. If he spent 2 trillion and unemployment was 8.9% Democrats would still get killed this year, regardless of whether or not it was the right idea.

    Or (none / 0) (#3)
    by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Wed Sep 01, 2010 at 03:52:51 PM EST

    ...you have to accept the bare facts that the stimulus of February 2009 was inadequate to the task.

    Or that it was counterproductive.

    no, not counterproductive (5.00 / 4) (#11)
    by desmoinesdem on Wed Sep 01, 2010 at 06:02:57 PM EST
    It helped a bit and probably kept us from going off the cliff, but it wasn't big enough and (worse) wasn't well-targeted, so we are looking at a lost decade.

    The GOP alternative, do nothing to stimulate the economy, would have been a disaster. But no one in their right mind could claim Obama's done all he could.

    Parent

    The GOP alternative, do nothing (none / 0) (#16)
    by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 08:33:07 AM EST

    That's a straw man.  Tax rate cuts were proposed, and resulted in strong growth for both Reagan and JFK.

    Parent
    Of COOURSE they proposed tax cuts (5.00 / 2) (#17)
    by Yman on Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 10:04:27 AM EST
    That's the GOP answer for everything.  If the economy's good and there's a surplus, the government is collecting "too much" money, so we need to cut taxes.  If the economy's in the tank, we need to cut taxes to stimulate the economy.  Don't like social programs?  Cut taxes and starve them of funding.  Got a toothache?  Cut taxes.  Erectile dysfunction? ...

    A veritable panacea, ...

    ... or snake oil.

    Parent

    Cut tax rates, not tax revenue (none / 0) (#19)
    by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 12:55:21 PM EST

    Is that too hard to understand?

    Parent

    Not at all. In fact, ... (none / 0) (#20)
    by Yman on Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 03:41:36 PM EST
    ... it's incredibly simple.

    Just not in the way you intend.

    Parent