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Unemployment Claims Rise

Digby:

[. . .] Bob Shrum says the country is optimistic and inspired and that talk of economic malaise and angry resentment and such are "the politics of 2010." Chris Matthews says that Obama is very much like Vince Lombardi.

At this point, I think Obama ought to be worried that Morning in America has arrived two years too early and that it will be dark again by the time he faces re-election.

Today's unemployment claims report:

In the week ending Jan. 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 454,000, an increase of 51,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 403,000. The 4-week moving average was 428,750, an increase of 15,750 from the previous week's revised average of 413,000.

Speaking for me only

< Should The Retirement Age Be Raised To 67? (Psst. It already Has Been Raised To 67) | The Current Income Inequality And Job Creation Crisis >
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  • Display: Sort:
    If Obama can make Twilight of the Gods (5.00 / 1) (#2)
    by TJBuff on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 11:17:50 AM EST
    look like Morning in America, he probably deserves to be re-elected.

    Well (5.00 / 2) (#5)
    by Ga6thDem on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 11:44:47 AM EST
    i fully expect numbers like these to continue until 2012 since there has been no policy put forth to change the equation.

    My best buddy... (5.00 / 1) (#7)
    by kdog on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 12:46:58 PM EST
    will be on the rolls next week...lucky bastard.  He got 6 months severance & 6 months health insurance, so its not a bad layoff...his outfit done right by the downsized.

    And I will get to feel better about the taxes I pay, pretending my buddy is getting all my action via unemployment check. Win/Win:)

    I am on unemployment (5.00 / 2) (#40)
    by NMvoiceofreason on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 02:45:26 PM EST
    ...and it is no picnic.

    UI phone systems can't handle all the calls. New republican governor promised to fix it, only to shut off access to the website for online weekly certifications - on the busiest days of the week.

    Can't pay for my mortgage (except from savings).

    Can't find work, even though I look every day.

    One week, there was only one job in the paper.

    Savings are being drained at a fearsome rate.

    No jobs in the SOTU, no hope for the future.

    Don't envy your friend. His UI nightmare is only beginning.

    Parent

    !.5 years after getting employment, (none / 0) (#46)
    by jeffinalabama on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 03:02:01 PM EST
    I'm ALMOST out of the hole that 5 months of unemployment caused.  UI doesn't keep up with, well, anyone making more than minimum wage.

    Parent
    On top of a 20k severance... (none / 0) (#57)
    by kdog on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 03:26:21 PM EST
    thats some good gravy though.

    Then again, my big knot is another man's chump change:)

    Parent

    20k would (none / 0) (#64)
    by NMvoiceofreason on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 03:47:27 PM EST
    ... pay my mortgage for 2 years.

    Parent
    Thats what I'm saying... (none / 0) (#82)
    by kdog on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 06:17:18 PM EST
    my boy is golden...his company had to do it because the employees knew their facility was done 6 months ago, and the co. couldn't have people fleeing.  It's a pretty nice score I think...and nice to see the little guy still get one.

    But like I said about nice score/chump change, people p*ss 20 grand so its all relative.

    Really hope something turns up for you NM.  I didn't mean to be isensitive to all the people looking and not finding at all...I'm just happy for my boy, and gives me hope that good sh*t happens to good people too. Keep your chin up.  

    Parent

    Damn... (none / 0) (#50)
    by kdog on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 03:09:51 PM EST
    better luck to you NM.  They do give you a healthy dose of hassle and humiliation at the unemployment office, or so I've heard/read.

    Lucky for my boy, and me for that matter, the NY job market is holding out better than most...he told some of his co-workers already found new jobs, he does specialized tech work in broadcasting, so he has a somewhat in demand skill set.  

    My boy says he is gonna give the poker grind a real go...rent a cheap room in AC for a couple weeks and see if he can roll that severance and UI checks into a living at the tables and live the dream...he is a much more disciplined player than I so I think he's got a good a shot as anybody.  He'll have a posse rootin' for him, thats for damn sure.

    And if he falls flat, he wouldn't be the first to get back on their feet on the casa de kdog couch for a few weeks...we proles get by with help from our friends...they'd all do the same for me.

    Keep your chin up my friend...I just wouldn't expect help from up high if I was you...the stock market is doing great and thats all anybody up high cares about.  We proles are on our own...no bailouts here.

    Parent

    My gawd. Makes my blood run cold. (none / 0) (#80)
    by oculus on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 05:38:44 PM EST
    Still my reality, oculus, for my former soldiers. (none / 0) (#85)
    by jeffinalabama on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 06:27:27 PM EST
    they need it, I got it, or I can get it. Call it a feudal relationship. They still follow my orders, 20 years later.

    Parent
    We may have crossed comments here. (none / 0) (#86)
    by oculus on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 06:29:43 PM EST
    I was thinking it isn't all that wise to gamble w/that $20,000.  But then I'm a lousy gambler.

    Parent
    My man has got skills.... (none / 0) (#88)
    by kdog on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 06:37:19 PM EST
    in the red lifetime...I'm not puttin' it past him to turn into a hundo in a year.  Just got to stay away from craps.

    Parent
    Does he know how (none / 0) (#89)
    by jeffinalabama on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 06:40:31 PM EST
    boring and unchallenging it is to play every day for a long time? I'd rather have a job, and play on occasion.

    Parent
    Yes he does... (5.00 / 1) (#91)
    by kdog on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 06:53:07 PM EST
    he knows boring and unchallenging...he watched crappy overnight cable television for a living.

    Playing the leather-arse to make money is boring as hell, with a dash of brutal bad beats for good measure...I hear ya.  Playing like a maniac is fun, swings galore, but fun...I've learned I'm with you I think, and I'm not nearly as good as my boy...he is nice to have around to swap a piece of the action with at tourneys, I can tell ya that...gotten my share of buy-ins back that way.

    Parent

    We did, Oculus. (none / 0) (#90)
    by jeffinalabama on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 06:41:11 PM EST
    I lasted almost 2 years after the 'peace divident' (none / 0) (#83)
    by jeffinalabama on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 06:23:57 PM EST
    gave me a 25 k bonus in 1991. Tell him to binge on not work time-- the tables are work, 8-10 hours daily. Best from 10pm-6am, and always play friday saturday and Sunday starting about noon.

    Friday the folks just got there and are drinking, saturday they're drunk, and sunday they're desparate.

    Parent

    The 25 k was to get out... (none / 0) (#84)
    by jeffinalabama on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 06:24:39 PM EST
    call it severance if you want ;-)

    Parent
    I scored 5 grand once... (none / 0) (#92)
    by kdog on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 06:58:33 PM EST
    severance working purchasing for a wire and cable outfit...sorted my move to FLA and partied it up pretty good.

    20 in hand I'd be dangerous Chuckie:)

    Parent

    Me and the VFW poker rooms... (none / 0) (#93)
    by jeffinalabama on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 08:29:35 PM EST
    2 yrs, no job, finally went bust. Lots of folks offered to stake, but it was time for a change, said my liver. ultimately grad school and where I am now...stuff happens.

    Parent
    Make sure that he (none / 0) (#72)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 04:41:09 PM EST
    files for unemployment right away anyway.  If I'm not mistaken, the 6 months severance won't affect his unemployment eligibility....just mentioning this because sometimes people think they need to wait until the severance is exhausted....of course things might have changed about that in recent years, but it never hurts to apply and find out.

    Parent
    There is nothing wrong with the economy (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by NMvoiceofreason on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 12:57:24 PM EST
    [SarcasticFont (TM)}
     http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/record-corporate-profits-are-coming-out-of-workers-hides/19730686 Record Corporate Profits Are Coming Out of Workers' Hides

    If people choose not to participate in the corporate economy by not investing, then they don't really deserve the benefits that corporations provide to the worthy labor markets overseas.

    [/SarcasticFont (tm)]

    1-800-NEPTUNE (5.00 / 1) (#52)
    by Addison on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 03:13:07 PM EST
    It seems sometimes that, for as much as I like Obama and his team on many issues, on the economy (read: jobs) they're acting like a gaggle of surfers waiting for the right economic wave to come in -- so that they can ride on top of it to glory -- totally oblivious to the fact that they've got an in with Neptune and can, to some extent, control the sea. There they are out at sea bobbing up and down, talking about how awesome they're going to look riding the big wave when it comes in. Call Neptune!

    Reality will set in (3.00 / 2) (#3)
    by Slado on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 11:39:18 AM EST
    depending on which path he takes....

    1. He raises taxes and slashes spending.

    2. He raises spending, leaves taxes as is (the deal)

    In either scenario we probably won't see much economic boost.  In scenario (1) we stay open for business.  In scenario (2) we have another crash that will make this one look like a picnic.

    Neither party is serious about our debt crises.  The left wants to pretend it's not that bad and some more spending will fix it.  The right wants to pretend we can simply cut spending but not any of the real spending (military, Medicare, etc..) that is causing the crisis.

    The only question is will economic reality set in before the elections of 2012 or will Obama get to deal with it during a lame duck term.

    Will Obama get to punt decades worth of poor fiscal policy onto a successor or a republican or will he be shown the door because it sets in on his watch?

    We shall see.  But this small up tick is meaningless.  On either path there is so much more political sparing to be done and the economy is simply not going to recover with a massive debt burden dragging it down.

    If we've learned nothing from the past few years we've learned that eventually the rent is due.


    It's a fairly significant uptick actually (none / 0) (#4)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 11:41:02 AM EST
    especially at this point (5.00 / 1) (#74)
    by NYShooter on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 04:53:50 PM EST
    in the cycle.

    Should be accelerating in the other direction, picking up speed and momentum.

    Parent

    It's all relative (none / 0) (#12)
    by Slado on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 01:10:47 PM EST
    it's down if you compare it to his post election polls and this big/small uptick will come right back down if the economy only grows at a snails pace in 2011.

    If he is celebrating 8.5% unemployment at the end of the year he's in trouble.

    Parent

    I was referring to (none / 0) (#20)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 01:32:52 PM EST
    the rise in unemployment claims.

    Parent
    10/4 (none / 0) (#76)
    by Slado on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 05:08:23 PM EST
    I thought you meant the poll numbers.

    I'm well aware of unemployment and glad I have a job.

    Parent

    So true. (none / 0) (#6)
    by Buckeye on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 12:04:54 PM EST
    Neither party is serious about our debt crises.  The left wants to pretend it's not that bad and some more spending will fix it.  The right wants to pretend we can simply cut spending but not any of the real spending (military, Medicare, etc..) that is causing the crisis.

    FTR, Republicans also do not want taxes to be a part of the solution (or they recommend an even more regressive structure - see Ryan's Roadmap).

    Parent

    Tax policy or spending not the problem (5.00 / 2) (#10)
    by NMvoiceofreason on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 01:06:00 PM EST
    The problem is much worse, and much deeper. We have no industrial policy. Our national policy is oriented towards financial capitalism - i.e. investment via banks, Wall Street, etc. Note that there are no jobs there - they don't make anything (like lawyers) - they only live off the efforts of others. So if that company makes more money by hiring "Peggy" for call center support in eastern europe, or "wendy" for textile manufacturing in Bangladesh, then its win/win. Should they be free to gut our country, simply because it is more profitable to do so? (recent history says yes).

    In my grandfathers day, having a job was considered a basic dignity. The WPA built campgrounds and dams and extended railway lines. Were the campgrounds essential to the economy? No, but the dignity was, and that is something the American people are no longer due from their politicians.

    Parent

    I agree with Ryan in principal (none / 0) (#11)
    by Slado on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 01:07:38 PM EST
    but not in terms of political reality.

    If republicans really want to fix this and not win an ideological war then they must concede something on the tax front.

    Best case for my side is it's sold as a restructuring in the overall rates and abandoning of loopholes etc... but bottom line is we need to take in more revenue and spend less at the government level if we want to get out of this hole.

    For progressives they need to abandon the "Investment" idea.  

    As Dave Ramsey always says..."Would you borrow money from the bank to invest it?"   That is what Obama is really calling investment.   To really invest you have to have the money in the first place.

    All options should be on the table.  Social Security, Medicare, discretionary and first up the military.  Anyone who says one program is more deserving then another for partisan reasons should be removed from the conversation.   No one program really stands on it's own.  They should all be on the table.

    Parent

    You cannot balance the budget (5.00 / 2) (#14)
    by NMvoiceofreason on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 01:20:32 PM EST
    ...if you don't have any income.

    The US government is in a very deep hole. We can argue about who put us there. We can even agree that the first thing when in a hole is to stop digging. The question is how. The hole is filling with water, and we will drown in debt if we don't do something. But slowing the water filling up the hole doesn't get us out of the hole.

    The hole will never be fixed while ignoring 90% of the population. The regressive taxation of Ryan's plans will only lead to an implosion of our cities and massive loss of life.

    We thought we would have a hundred years before robots replaced us in the workforce. That would have given us time to plan, to adjust. But outsourcing sped up the timetable and now by the economic clock, its 2111. What robots don't build, people in Asia do.

    The reality is that people matter. People who fight for the people's most basic rights (like Jeralyn and BTD) have my utmost respect. They are worth the "tax on society" that they cost. But many of their brothers and sisters have sold us down the river, and the tax they have raised we cannot pay, as we homeless unemployed drift down the river, holding our guns and bibles as if they would give us the courage we need.

    Parent

    Well (none / 0) (#13)
    by Ga6thDem on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 01:19:43 PM EST
    that's largely the problem with the GOP. They don't want to offer up anything in the way of cuts for their campaign donors. Maybe if they were willing to take huge military cuts then people might be willing to deal on some other issues but they never want to do any cuts on the elephant in the room. Not even that, they want to INCREASE our foreign involvement and military spending.

    Parent
    Except (none / 0) (#15)
    by Radix on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 01:24:25 PM EST
    SS and medicare have their own individual taxes, which they are living within. Take a look at the total dept, every penny of that was spent on the discretionary side of spending of the budget. So why not fix that which is spending more than it takes in? Do that, then we can talk about the other side of the ledger.  

    Parent
    SS and Medicare are going to be the largest (none / 0) (#17)
    by Buckeye on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 01:29:23 PM EST
    contributors to debt over the next 25 years (especially Medicare).  Excluding these 2, as well as defense (which I presume you would not exclude but a lot of people do), then by 2020 86% of federal spending will be untouchable.

    Parent
    Make that largest contibutors to the (none / 0) (#18)
    by Buckeye on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 01:30:47 PM EST
    increase in the debt.

    Parent
    Social Security will not (none / 0) (#19)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 01:32:11 PM EST
    contribute to the debt at all in the next 25 years.

    Parent
    Why? (none / 0) (#22)
    by Buckeye on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 01:39:02 PM EST
    Because its revenues (5.00 / 2) (#29)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 02:09:47 PM EST
    and assets will exceed its expenditures, even under pessimistic projections, through at least 2039.

    At the end of 2009, about 53 million people were receiving benefits: 36 million retired workers and dependents of retired workers, 6 million survivors of deceased workers, and 10 million disabled workers and dependents
    of disabled workers. During the year, an estimated 156 million people had earnings covered by Social Security and paid payroll taxes. Total expenditures in 2009 were $686 billion. Total income was $807 billion ($689 billion in tax revenue and $118 billion in interest earnings), and assets held in special issue U.S. Treasury securities grew to $2.5 trillion.

    I think the size of the Trust Fund is something folks really do not grasp. The United States' total debt currently is around 13 billion dollar. Over 1/6th of the debt is to Social Security.

    Even in a terrible economic year like 2009, the Social Security Trust Fund earned 121 Billion dollars.

    If in, say 2025, we see that Social Security will be in shortfall after 2039, we can of course deal with it then, with 14 years to spare.

    Social Security has nothing to do with our current problems in any way.

    It is outrageous that people act like it does have something to do with it.

    Parent

    Other than we will raise payroll taxes (none / 0) (#23)
    by Buckeye on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 01:40:03 PM EST
    to fund the program when it goes negative.

    Parent
    It does not even start going into negative (5.00 / 1) (#30)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 02:11:28 PM EST
    on a current account basis, ignoring the fact that the Trust Fund ENVISIONED going account negative, until 2019 under the most pessimistic assumptions.

    The Trust Fund would not be exhausted until 2039, under the most negative assumptions.

    Parent

    False premise. (none / 0) (#21)
    by Radix on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 01:36:02 PM EST
    The debt was solely created by over spending, under taxing, on the discretionary side, that is a fact proved by the numbers. Fix the portion of government spending that actually is broken, then we can move on to that which will not be broken for a couple of decades.

    Parent
    That is fine as a matter of principle (none / 0) (#24)
    by Buckeye on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 01:44:56 PM EST
    (and it is one I share with you), but when the $2.6 trillion in Tbills are redeemed over the next 25 years, where will that $100B per year come from?

    Parent
    From the side it's suppose to come from. (none / 0) (#25)
    by Radix on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 01:48:37 PM EST
    That's why we need to fix that side, it's broken.

    Parent
    Fine. And FTR I do not want to cut (none / 0) (#26)
    by Buckeye on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 01:52:33 PM EST
    SS payments.  But just as a financial analysis discussion, this does not matter.  If we do not cut SS spending or raise payroll taxes, the first $100B per year of spending cuts we do on the discretionary side will not reduce the deficit at all.  It will just offset the cash flow from the general fund to the SS fund as the trust redeems its Tbills.

    Parent
    Excuse me (5.00 / 1) (#34)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 02:19:24 PM EST
    is the possibility of raising taxes so difficult for you to accept?

    Parent
    Not at all. Not sure why you would (none / 0) (#36)
    by Buckeye on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 02:24:50 PM EST
    think that based on what I have been writing in my posts.  My opinion is eliminate the cap creating in essense a flat tax.  That will help a lot.  My argument is that creating a separate trust fund under the same umbrella with the transmission mechanism for cash flowing back and forth between the trust and general fund being Tbills somehow makes it a separate issue is wrong.  From right now, as the Trust fund depletes its surplus treasuries, the general fund will have to pay these off.  That will add 1 for 1 dollar for dollar to the deficit.  It cannot be ignored and presumed that it will not be a factor to our debt/deficit problems over the next 25 years.  It must be resolved.  it should be resolved by eliminating the cap.

    Parent
    Noo (none / 0) (#45)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 03:02:01 PM EST
    "From right now, as the Trust fund depletes its surplus treasuries, the general fund will have to pay these off."

    Right now, Social security runs a surplus EVERY year, inc luding 121 billion dollars last year.

    Pull my other leg.

    Parent

    Explain this (none / 0) (#62)
    by Buckeye on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 03:39:49 PM EST
    SS trust fund to run deficit this year.  This is due to The Deal and a crappy economy, but it is still cash negative right now.

    Further:

    Congress has promised to replenish any lost revenue from the tax cut, but that's hardly good news, either, adding to the federal budget deficit.

    Should we honor our commitments to the SS trust fund?  Absolutely.  Will it add $2.6T to our debt as they redeem the tresuries.  Absolutely.  We should not allow this increase to occur by eliminating the cap and letting the wealthy start contributing more.

    Parent

    The social security trust fund (5.00 / 1) (#73)
    by KeysDan on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 04:48:04 PM EST
    will not run a deficit this year.  It may wind up  that $45 billion more will be paid in benefits than it collects in payroll taxes as suggested by some congressional budget people.  However, after replacement of the revenue from the two percent payroll tax reduction by Congress, interest income from the Trust Fund's Treasury Securities will provide for benefits.

    By law, social security cannot add to the deficit and social security cannot borrow.  The current decrease in tax revenue is due to the loss of jobs, high unemployment rates and the need for early retirements (even with reduced benefits). Of course, it was always understood that  the payroll tax reduction part of the DEAL would contribute to the deficit for the first time.  And, among concerns was that this contribution to the deficit would be used against social security, or least, to instill fear for its instant insolvency.  And, it looks like that is what is happening.

    Parent

    Stop cutting taxes (none / 0) (#63)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 03:44:16 PM EST
    and you will do alot more about the deficit than cutting social security.

    First of all, social security is STIMULUS because most all of it gets spent. Most tax cuts get saved.

    Second, even in the article you cite, Social Secuirty has all the money it needs until 2037!!!! Excuse me if I think ewe have bigger fish to fry.

    Parent

    My cousin (none / 0) (#65)
    by NMvoiceofreason on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 03:57:38 PM EST
    One of Bushs republican Pioneers, dinners at WH, BBQ in Crawford, daughter worked for RSCC, ran Meg Whitmans campaign... VERY happy about the Bush tax cuts being continued.

    Problem is if you give him the 5% tax rate difference (about 35,000$ for him) its not going anywhere except into a bank account. He won't spend it, and won't even invest it anywhere.

    If you give me 35,000$, I promise I will spend it. Promise.


    Parent

    Agree on both of your points. (none / 0) (#68)
    by Buckeye on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 04:13:15 PM EST
    Completely irrelevant however to what we are debating.

    Parent
    I've referred to this article twice in two open (none / 0) (#66)
    by jeffinalabama on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 04:10:36 PM EST
    threads. It's poorly written, it's at best factually incorrect, and it's at worst purposely disingenuous.

    It's just another part of THE BIG LIE concerning Social Security and the trust fund.

    Simple, elegant solutions. A. Lift the cap. B. Renege on The Deal.

    Reneging on the deal doesn't cause even a ripple to the "full faith and credit" issue of treasuries.

    A LEADER would say, "at the time, two months ago, this was affordable (or something). We've reached a different point, and we can't continue with this specific tax legislation. Change it, Congress.

    Or, for the constitutional scholars, what about an executive order contrary to 'the deal?' what would the constitutional ramifications be?

    Parent

    Agree (none / 0) (#69)
    by Buckeye on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 04:13:55 PM EST
    Jeff, it's as if there's an article or (none / 0) (#95)
    by Anne on Fri Jan 28, 2011 at 08:33:06 AM EST
    group that says the world is flat, and no matter how much evidence there is to the contrary, some people are still going to believe it; I honestly cannot believe the convoluted reasoning that is being engaged in just to support a thesis that isn't based in reality.

    I think the one that just slays me is "the government borrowed money from the Trust Fund, and THEY SPENT IT!  Whatever will the government do when the Trust Fund wants/needs to redeem some of the Treasury obligations it's holding???"

    Reading through the thread, look at how many attempts have been made to explain how all of this works, and look at the ongoing effort to keep making it something it isn't in order to fit a faulty construct.

    For the most part, it seems like an exercise in futility, but I think what is keeping people from abandoning the effort altogether is the possibility of a breakthrough that will keep the utter nonsense from being disseminated to others.


    Parent

    Not at all. Not sure why you would (none / 0) (#37)
    by Buckeye on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 02:24:58 PM EST
    think that based on what I have been writing in my posts.  My opinion is eliminate the cap creating in essense a flat tax.  That will help a lot.  My argument is that creating a separate trust fund under the same umbrella with the transmission mechanism for cash flowing back and forth between the trust and general fund being Tbills somehow makes it a separate issue is wrong.  From right now, as the Trust fund depletes its surplus treasuries, the general fund will have to pay these off.  That will add 1 for 1 dollar for dollar to the deficit.  It cannot be ignored and presumed that it will not be a factor to our debt/deficit problems over the next 25 years.  It must be resolved.  it should be resolved by eliminating the cap.

    Parent
    Your focus on cutting SS (none / 0) (#44)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 03:00:32 PM EST
    seems a strong piece of evidence to me.

    Parent
    I am not focused on cutting it (none / 0) (#59)
    by Buckeye on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 03:28:45 PM EST
    as I have said over and over again.  I am debating whether or not SS is part of the overall budget.  It is.  People get confused over accounting.  SS trust fund to our government is not the same thing as China or a private pension fund.

    Parent
    In our exchange of comments (none / 0) (#75)
    by KeysDan on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 05:07:47 PM EST
    on social security, I have tried to understand your position. However, I am still having difficulty.  It may be that we are comprehending its foundations differently, you with how social security is accounted for in the federal budget, and me, in how it is financed.

    Since 1935, social security payroll taxes have been credited to a separate account.  However, the Act directed the Sec of Treasury to invest tax amounts collected but not currently needed in interest-bearing obligations of the US. In 1939, a formal trust fund was established; taxes not used were lent to the Federal government for whatever purpose, but the Trust Fund held assets in the form of Treasury securities. The Trust Fund has been "off budget" and "on budget" across time. In 1983, the overtaxing for purposes of building surpluses for the future emphasized stopping use in the unified budget. As of 1990 (OBRA), Trust Funds  were "off budget" and could no longer  be used at all in a unified budget, including calculation of the deficit.

    Parent

    Let me try to restate my position (none / 0) (#96)
    by Buckeye on Fri Jan 28, 2011 at 09:15:45 AM EST
    and offer a metaphor.  To begin, I actually do not care about the accounting or legal language surrounding the SS trust fund.  In an economic sense, it is meaningless.  I am speaking to the economic reality of how SS will impact our debt over the next 25 years as SS draws downs its surplus treasuries.  BTD argued SS will not add anything to the debt over the next 25 years.  That is wrong (unless we raise SS taxes or cut SS spending).

    Consider this example.  Imagine you want to go to college and you need to save in a college fund to pay for it.  You currently work a 9 to 5 job but decide to moonlight as a bartender and use that money for college.  All the income you make in your 9 to 5 job goes to your checking account that you use as your general fund to pay for all your expenses.  You then create a separate college fund at a different bank.  All the money you make as a bartender goes into that account.  After say ten years when you are ready to start college, you have $100K in your college fund.  Let's assume for convenience 4 years of college will cost the same - $100K.  I think you and I would agree as long as the $100K cash is in the college fund, you have college covered.  That fund has real economic value.

    But let's make another assumption.  Let's instead assume you kept transferring funds out of your college account to your checking account at the other bank and used that money to pay for general expenses.  It was all spent.  Along the way, you wrote IOUs and put them into your college fund promising to pay that money back from your checking account.  You don't worry that the college fund can be replenished because you have plenty of borrowing capacity (credit cards with a high credit limit and a low balance as well as a house you own with plenty of equity that can be monetized).  When it comes time to go to college, and the $100K of expenses are due, what happens?  Your college fund has no money - only $100K worth of IOUs.  What BTD was essentially arguing is that since the college fund is a separate account with its own funding source, has run surpluses, and has IOUs against an account that has the capacity to honor the commitments, it will not add to your debt.  But I think we would both agree you actually have a $100K problem.  Those IOUs have no real economic value.  To honor those IOUs and pay for college, you have to come up with $100K that you currently do not have and already spent.  That means either work more hours to increase income (raise taxes), lower your expenditures and use the savings to pay for college (cut spending), or you borrow $100K against your credit cards and/or house increasing your debt (borrowing from China).

    That is where we are right now with SS.  The government controls both funds and all they are doing is moving money back and forth between its accounts.  SS has run $2.6T of surpluses over the last 25 years.  They bought Tbills with the surplus dollars which basically transferred it to the general fund which was spent on the operations of the government.  In exchange, the general fund gave the SS trust fund IOUs promising to pay it back.  Essentially, the government wrote IOUs to itself.  The surplus funds were spent.  Over the next 25 years, SS goes negative starting to pay out more benefits than it collects.  It will start redeeming its IOUs (Tbills).  Like our college fund, the government will have to honor those commitments by either raising taxes, cutting spending, or adding $2.6T of debt on top of whatever debt we have right now.  


    Parent

    And FTR, (none / 0) (#98)
    by Buckeye on Fri Jan 28, 2011 at 09:40:52 AM EST
    I understand the purposes of the trust fund as well as buying Tbills was to (among other things) ensure the public that the social contract the government made with the public (pay into SS your working life and it will be there for you when you reach a certain age) will be honored.  And I think it should be.  I do not want to cut SS.  But we need to acknowledge it is going to add $2.6T to our debt over the next 25 years since the surplus tax dollars have been spent.

    Parent
    True. (none / 0) (#28)
    by Radix on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 02:00:34 PM EST
    Since we over spend, on the discretionary side by what, a ~1.3T, we're going to have to cut much more than that, anyway. So again, discretionary spending needs to be fixed, it is, after all, that which is causing the problem, not SS nor medicare, at least not right now. Further, we have no idea what our outlook will look like, I suspect much better, if we fix the actual problem.

    Parent
    Tax policy needs to be fixed (5.00 / 1) (#32)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 02:16:50 PM EST
    first.

    Parent
    Its the "at least not right now" (2.00 / 1) (#33)
    by Buckeye on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 02:18:28 PM EST
    that is the issue.  I am talking about over the next 25 years which is what everyone (from Greenspan to Krugman) is worried about.  Medicare will explode and SS will start adding $100B per year to the deficit as it start cashing in its surplus treasuries.

    Saying it needs to be fixed is not saying what we are going to cut.  There is a big nut in defense which right now looks difficult to cut.  Where else?

    We spend $1.4T in discretionary spending in 2010.  $663 billion is defense.  $700B on everything else with the top 3 being health and human services, department of transportation, and veterans affairs (consisting of $200B).  

    Consider this.  The right's current plan to return federal non-defense discretionary spending back to 2006 levels would cut $2.5T over ten years.  That is only $100 billion per year.  And doing that would entail cutting 15% of federal headcount and freezing wages for 5 years.  That is pretty steep in my opinion.

    Parent

    What a dishonest construction (5.00 / 2) (#35)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 02:22:15 PM EST
    " SS will start adding $100B per year to the deficit as it start cashing in its surplus treasuries."

    The US issues debt instruments every year.

    Does paying them "raise the deficit?"

    The money in the Social Security Trust Fund was lent to the US government, just like the Chinese lent money to the US government.

    How about we default on the debt to the Chinese?

    Was it alwsys intended to NEVER pay back the money that was lent by Social Security? Was the who9le thing just a scam?  

    If so, then Social Security should be immediately terminated.

    Parent

    LOL. China is a separate entity. (none / 0) (#38)
    by Buckeye on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 02:32:46 PM EST
    If I run a business and have $1B surplus cash and use it to buy treasuries backed by the full faith and credit of the US government (the safest bet in the world), I can legitimately talk to investors about having $1B of cash assets on my balance sheet.  A separate entity owes me that money.  If a divisional President at my company borrowed $1B from another division, I cannot go to investors and tell them I have $1B in cash assets (the debit is offset by a credit).

    Everything is under the umbrella of the US government.  Whatever surpluses the fund generated was transferred to the general fund and was spent.  Going forward, as the trust fund redeems its Tbills, the general fund is going to have to pay them.  That will have a 1 for 1 dollar for dollar impact on the deficit of about $100B per year.

    Parent

    The General Fund is paying out (5.00 / 1) (#39)
    by Anne on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 02:43:11 PM EST
    on Treasury obligations every day, for heaven's sake - what do you think is paying out the funds when you go to redeem savings bonds, or cash in a T-bill?  You lent money to the government, it gave you a Treasury bill or note to hold, and when you want your money, you go to the bank or send in your Treasury Direct paperwork, and you get your money.  Do you wring your hands over what the government might have done with the money you lent it?  Are you in a panic because they - gulp! - actually spent the money they borrowed?

    This is just silliness that perpetuates the myth over how the government operates and the fear that it's "really" insolvent.

    And it ticks me off that it's being used to justify "fixing" something that just isn't broken.

    Parent

    There is a difference that I do not think (none / 0) (#42)
    by Buckeye on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 02:51:54 PM EST
    a lot of people grasp involving essentially intercompany transfers.  Because the government takes some taxes and some spending, separates it into a "trust fund," and has the cash flowing back and forth between a general fund and the trust fund that they are somehow separate and distinct.  They are not.  People are just getting bent around the axil on accounting.  If China buys treasuries, we have a liability on our balance sheet, China has an asset.  That is already part of our debt.  If China redeems their asset for cash, we see our cash balance drop offset by a drop in long term liabilities.  Our debt (long term liability) declines as our cash (asset). If we do not have the cash (which we dont) then we borrow from somewhere else.  Nothing changes.  We replace on liability with the other.

    The SS trust fund is different.  Whatever assets we have in that account is offset by credits in the general fund.  These two funds send money back and forth the way the treasury department at a large company sends money back and forth among divisions.

    Look, I do not want to cut SS and I think it has been as strong a program as you think it is.  We made a commitment to people who pay into it, we have growing inequality in this country, and it is true that if the fund goes empty in the late 2030s it will not have controbuted to the debt at all in the first 100 years of the program.  None of this means that from where we are right now, as the SS fund starts redeeming treasuries to pay people as the funds are now insufficient, it will not add incremental debt.  It will.

    Parent

    This is just wrong (none / 0) (#49)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 03:07:30 PM EST
    It is not "an intercompany transfer" as a legal matter.

    Where you come up with this nonsense I do not know:

    "The SS trust fund is different.  Whatever assets we have in that account is offset by credits in the general fund.  These two funds send money back and forth the way the treasury department at a large company sends money back and forth among divisions."

    That's just false. The Social Security Trust Fund is like a pension fund at a company.

    That money does not get transferred to any division of the company.

    You are saying things not even Pete PEterson says.

    Parent

    I do not care who Pete Peterson is. (none / 0) (#55)
    by Buckeye on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 03:21:23 PM EST
    You keep bringing up as a "legal matter" which I am sure is true but has nothing to do with real money.  A pension fund at a company that uses cash to buy treasuries has an asset.  The government has a liability (the treasury it loaned).  The pension fund has a real asset that can be drawn down against in the future to fund benefits that does not come from another bucket within the company.

    It makes no sense to view Social Security as a program entirely separate from the government's general budget in this manner. Payroll taxes are supposedly earmarked for Social Security, but this revenue stream has been used to fund the operations of the government, while handing out IOUs -- "special issue" Treasury bonds -- to the Social Security Trust Fund. As the Clinton administration budget of 2000 explained, the securities in the Trust Fund "do not consist of real economic assets that can be drawn down in the future to fund benefits."  Sure, they will redeem them, but the money must be borrowed.  The reduction of the asset on one side of the ledger (Trust Fund) is equally offset by a reduction of a liability on the other side of the ledger (general fund).  They net.  Only the cash spent is left which is on the deficit.

    Parent

    Noooo (none / 0) (#61)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 03:34:35 PM EST
    "A pension fund at a company that uses cash to buy treasuries has an asset."

    No a transferable asset as you want to treat it.

    The company can not do anything with that pension fund.

    Ever heard of ERISA?


    Parent

    When a schoolboy buys (none / 0) (#87)
    by KeysDan on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 06:32:43 PM EST
    a US savings bond with grandma's birthday gift, he gets an "IOU" in accord with terms and conditions, including interest.  The schoolboy has, now, contributed to the US debt.  When the US savings bond is redeemed the government can do so with its general funds or, maybe, borrow funds as it sees fit.  If it choses to borrow funds to do so, it is not a problem inherent to the schoolboy or his purchase.

    Special issue securities do not take quotation marks, they are not so-called special issue, they are interest-bearing US. bonds available only to trust funds. These assets of no value have been collecting and using the interest earned. In 2009, the effective interest rate for the old age trust fund was 4.8 percent.  

    The statement attributed to the Clinton administration budget would need to be explained in the meaning of real economic assets.  Perhaps, in the same sense that the assets have the full faith and credit of the government, just as the little paper I have in my pocket that is a $5 bill.

    Parent

    Think of it this way Anne. (none / 0) (#48)
    by Buckeye on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 03:05:46 PM EST
    We could make our entire deficit and therefore debt disappear if we restate all expense items to a trust fund, take the current tax receipts and on paper only send the statutory rates to the trust funds with the credits/exemptions/deductions/shelters etc. to the general fund.  Although the general fund would show a MASSIVE deficit position because all it is getting are tax credits, we could state that we do not have a debt/deficit problem with any of our programs becauses they are either cash neutral or any surpluses are used to buy treasuries.  We could say we need to fix the problem of the general fund because that is a deficit and nothing else is.  

    But in this example, the only way to fix the general fund would be to eliminate the credits/exemptions/deductions/shelters etc. But how is that different than raising taxes on everything?  It isn't.

    Parent

    What TF? (none / 0) (#51)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 03:11:21 PM EST
    LEt me start by asking you what you mean by "statutory rates" in this sentence --"We could make our entire deficit and therefore debt disappear if we restate all expense items to a trust fund, take the current tax receipts and on paper only send the statutory rates to the trust funds with the credits/exemptions/deductions/shelters etc. to the general fund."

    What does that even mean?

    Parent

    I was trying to create an example of (none / 0) (#56)
    by Buckeye on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 03:22:32 PM EST
    separating tax revenue, allocating some to the trust fund with credits allocated to the general fund to show how accounting can be used to make everything look like SS.  Statutory rates vs. effective rates may not have been the best metaphor.

    Parent
    Sounds good to me (5.00 / 1) (#60)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 03:33:18 PM EST
    I like that approach.

    The Defense spending tax. Etc.

    It would add a lot of clarity.

    But the point is Social Security DOES have its dedicated tax revenue stream.

    The general budget does not. There is a reason for that. Pretending that it does nto have a dedicated revenue stream is to ignore the law, the purpose of
    Social Secuirty and frankly, political reality.

    Here's the truth, no one will dare straight out cut Social Security benefits. Because the American Eople HATE that idea.

    It will take chicanery and dishonesty to do it.

    Finally, let me tell you what I would do if I were King of the US - I would means test Social Security, for persons 30 and younger (so starting in 2058).

    I would TAX all Social Security and Medicare benefits for persons with incomes in excess of 100,000 per year.

    And of course, I would raise taxes on persons earning 200,000 or more, including new higher braCKETS 1 million, 5 million 10 million and 20 million.

    I would raise the estate tax.

    After that, I would see where I was and consider cutting military and other non-social saftey net items.

    If after all that, I still have a budget problem, THEN I would consider fiddling with current Social Security benefits.

    Parent

    Well. (none / 0) (#71)
    by Buckeye on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 04:35:06 PM EST
    "It would add a lot of clarity."  It sure hasn't with SS.

    Parent
    All Social Security benefits are (none / 0) (#78)
    by oculus on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 05:30:02 PM EST
    taxed.  

    Parent
    You are really foolish (5.00 / 1) (#47)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 03:04:50 PM EST
    As a legal matter, social security trust fund is a separate entity.

    Failure to pay the T-bills purchased by the Trust Fund would constitute a default by the United States, just as surely as it would constitute a default if China was not paid.

    Even the most ridiculous Petersonites are not saying the nonsense you are writing.

    The argument is about "what happens after the
    Trust Fund is depleted?"

    You're not even in the ballpark.

    Parent

    You are not understanding this issue. (none / 0) (#53)
    by Buckeye on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 03:13:32 PM EST
    The fact that it would constitute a legal default and is considered a legal separate entity is completely irrelevant to what I am talking about.  Our European operations is a separate legal entity and has cash on its balance sheet that we owe it.  There are laws about it.  We cannot tell investors that our corporation has that cash because one legal entity owes it to the other.  You are getting bent around the axil over accounting.  None of it matters at all.

    Krugman wrote this about the GOP response to the health care bill:

    This is just like the attempt to wave away Medicare savings, and it's equally nonsensical. Social Security and Medicare do have dedicated funding sources, but they are also part of the overall federal budget. Put it this way: if you took the current GOP line, it wouldn't matter how much Medicare costs -- it's all off-budget, so who cares?

    He also said this:

    4. Social Security taxes -- I think they mean Medicare, but anyway, additional tax revenue does reduce the deficit, regardless of what trust fund it's allocated to.

    If additional tax revenues reduce the deficit, so would spending cuts.  Does Krugman not understand this either?

    Parent

    Two points (5.00 / 1) (#58)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 03:26:34 PM EST
    1. This statement is pretty telling - "The fact that it would constitute a legal default and is considered a legal separate entity is completely irrelevant to what I am talking about." Actually, that is my point. Social Security is a standalone entity that does not contribute to the deficit, UNLESS you pretend it is not, which you are choosing to do. When you do that, EVERYTHING contributes to the deficit, even if its revenues exceed its expenses. As long as it has an expense, it contributes to the deficit by that logic.

    2. The Krugman example is actually worse, and in my view, contrary to your own.

    First, Krugman's polemic is pretty disingenuous, but it is in response to some outright dishonesty.

    The BETTER argument for Krugman would have been that while Medicare is not currently in deficit, on the path it is on now, it would be without either (A) an increase in revenue or (B) a decrease in expenditure.

    Thus, when Krugman writes "Social Security and Medicare do have dedicated funding sources, but they are also part of the overall federal budget. Put it this way: if you took the current GOP line, it wouldn't matter how much Medicare costs -- it's all off-budget, so who cares? "

    It matters precisely because we want to keep Medicare going. If Medicare continues on the path it is going, in the VERY NEAR future it will not have the money to maintain its expenditure level.

    Even in the near future, Medicare, STANDING ALONE, needs to do better financially, either by increasing revenue or decreasing expenditure.  

    Therein lies the difference with Social Security, which in fact is on much sounder financial footing than Medicare.

    The problem is not that Medicare is contributing to the deficit, it is that Medicare is not sustainable given its current financial trajectory in the NEAR TERM.

    Social Security, on the other hand, is in much much better shape. So much so, that it is the height of idiocy to even be focusing on Social Security right now.

    Deal with the General Fund deficit if that currently concerns you. First stop, tax policy.

    Dealing with the Medicare financing issue is absolutely a must and the sooner the better. Why? Because the program is not sustainable given its current trajectory.

    Social Security should be left alone for the time being as it simply is not a problem, relative to everything else that is effed up in our government.  

    Parent

    Agree SS is not NEARLY the problem (none / 0) (#67)
    by Buckeye on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 04:11:24 PM EST
    Medicare is.  You sound like a corporate lawyer and not a CFO.  I know the US Government is not like a company, but there is a similarity in the accounting in that none of what you are saying matters when it comes to the debt.  The SS trust fund ran surpluses and used that money to buy Tbills that the government spent.  From this point going forward, the general fund is going to have to find the money to pay the Tbills as they are redeemed.  That will add to the debt.  

    The difference is that the SS securities do not have real economic value.  It is not the same as with private companies or foreign countries.  
    It would be like a foolish parent who builds a college fund of IOUs written to himself.  Not even the government can spend the money, write an IOU to itself, and then on some future day expect to use those IOUs to fund benefit checks.

    To turn trust fund bonds into real money, the government must do what it would have to do if the trust fund did not exist: borrow, cut spending somewhere else, or raise taxes. The trust fund bonds may be assets from the point of view of Social Security, but they're a liability for the government as a whole, and for us as taxpayers.  Social Security is not a pension program as we commonly understand it. It is a pay-as-you-go program.  Current recipients must be paid with current tax revenue. Future recipients must be paid with future tax revenue.  

     Social Security trustees noted in 2009, "Neither the redemption of trust fund bonds, nor interest on those bonds, provides any new net income to the Treasury ..."

    In its 2000 budget, the Clinton administration was even more explicit: A large trust fund balance "does not have any impact on the Government's ability to pay benefits."

    I don't know what could be more clear.  The federal government has borrowed this money from Social Security and used it for other purposes. When Social Security cashes in its bonds, the federal government will need to come up with the money to pay Social Security back. Where is this money going to come from? The federal government has two options: Take it from people by taxing them, or borrow it.

    Parent

    Below is the whole quote of what Bill (none / 0) (#70)
    by Buckeye on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 04:30:23 PM EST
    Clinton's OMB noted in the year 2000:

    These [Trust Fund] balances are available to finance future benefit payments and other trust fund expenditures-but only in a bookkeeping sense. These funds are not set up to be pension funds, like the funds of private pension plans. They do not consist of real economic assets that can be drawn down in the future to fund benefits. Instead, they are claims on the Treasury, that, when redeemed, will have to be financed by raising taxes, borrowing from the public, or reducing benefits or other expenditures. The existence of large trust fund balances does not make it easier for the government to pay benefits. (emphasis added)

    Bookeeping aside, we cannot redeem these bills over the next 25 years without it adding to the debt.  The Social Security "trust fund" is essentially a bookkeeping system through which the government lends money to itself.  This is not the case with China or a private pension fund.  In the private sector for example, trust funds are invested in real assets ranging from stocks and bonds to mortgages and other financial instruments including Tbills. Assets are used only for specifically designated purposes, and the fund managers are held accountable if the money is mismanaged. Funds are managed in order to maximize earnings within a predetermined risk level. Investments are chosen that will provide cash at set intervals, allowing the private trust fund to pay its obligations.

    Again, OMB:

    The Federal budget meaning of the term "trust" differs significantly from the private sector usage.... [T]he Federal Government owns the assets and earnings of most Federal trust funds, and it can unilaterally raise or lower future trust fund collections and payments or change the purpose for which the collections are used.

    Furthermore, according to a Congressional Research Service report,

    [W]hen the government issues a bond to one of its own accounts, it hasn't purchased anything or established a claim against another entity or person. It is simply creating a form of IOU from one of its accounts to another.

    What we are talking about essentially is intercompany accounting.  SS will add to either the debt, higher taxes, or spending cuts over the next 25 years.  I vote for your plan "if you were king" you stated above.

    Parent

    I would rather start (none / 0) (#31)
    by jeffinalabama on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 02:12:34 PM EST
    with issues/programs that ARE in crisis, unlike Social Security. There can be massive cuts to defense, even more than the cuts mentioned by the administration.

    Some of the cuts would lead to higher unemployment-- the F-35, for example, or any currently scheduled submarine being constructed.

    Germany doesn't need occupying any more, and hasn't for about 20 years now. Same with AF bases in Great Britain. Aviano, Italy? not so sure. But I'm certain a SOFA and bases in Romania could be built or upgraded cheaper than maintaining Italy. There are other reasons for that base, though. Japan/Okinawa? Still important...

    There are some closings that might help... some programs to cancel. Additionally, any new Aircraft Carrier needs to be stopped forthwith.

    War footing and powerful congresspeople and senators keep the defense budget up.

    How about raising the Gasoline tax? Would it hurt? yes. Disproportionately the poor. But could it curb more driving? yep...

    Get rid of corn for ethanol. Get rid of mohair and alpacca subsidies. Restructure the ag budget massively.

    Just some ideas... just planting seeds, as Bill Hicks used to say.

    Parent

    In another decade, there will BE NO America (none / 0) (#27)
    by NMvoiceofreason on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 01:53:52 PM EST
    let's put up the pessimistic view of how this all goes. Faced with the Tea Party imperative, The House refuses to raise the debt ceiling. Government shuts down, funding for basic programs is shut off, and states are left on the edge, wanting to jump. Instead, their precarious financial situations will host Tea Party rallies, of near open armed revolt. Police officers will try to control it, and then the first blood will be drawn. Angry mobs of reactionaries will fight protesters and police alike, until Obama/Biden have to declare martial law. The crash in the bond fund ratings will be nothing compared to the flight of the rich, who will head for less violent shores to wait it out. Left without their corporate masters guidance, both political parties will be adrift in the second American Civil War. see http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.

    Add in the drug war spilling over out of Mexico (30,000 dead SO FAR) and you can see why our choices at this critical moment can spell our doom if they are not chosen VERY wisely.

    Parent

    The "Principal" of what Ryan wants is (none / 0) (#16)
    by Buckeye on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 01:26:58 PM EST
    flawed.  Even if we accept the scoring he provides for his proposal (which has been shredded), even if we accept that it can get any support (from the hundreds of republicans in Congress, only 13 got behind it), it would still balance the budget through more regressive policies making things worse for people in this country.

    Why not let the tax rates expire back to where they were the last time we had a balanced budget and full employment, eliminate the cap on payroll taxes (in essense creating a flat tax), and then assume receipts once we get back to full employment.  Whatever gap exists from there, make cuts.  I agree cuts are going to be needed, we cannot get 100% of the way there with tax increases.  But we cannot/will not get there 100% with spending cuts either.

    Parent

    Fair enough (5.00 / 1) (#79)
    by Slado on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 05:32:03 PM EST
    I would selfishly like to see lower taxes because I think the government is inefficient and actually drags down the economy with it's actions but realistically it is the only government we have and it needs reduced spending and more revenue.

    I'd like to see a streamlined tax system that rewarded producers instead of wealth and investing but that's yet another pipe dream.

    You argument with BTD over SS is classic.  Talk about two people talking past each other.

    I agree with you.  Put simply just because it's called a "Trust Fund" doesn't mean it's not part of the federal budget.

    Let me try this explanation.   SS taxes are collected from me.   To me the taxpayer they are part of my overall tax burden.  Just because it line items it on my check doesn't really mean anything to me.  As an upper income person I will never see the money I put in come back to me in the form of SS.  So in essence it's just another tax.

    That money and all the other "taxes" that are federal are used for all the services that the government spends money on.   If you separate out the SS system then you separate out not only the payout but the income associated with it.   Now a large portion of the governments budget is off the table.   With about 30-40% removed how are we to meet the fiscal obligations of the federal government?  We can't get more revenue because we've separated it out based on the assumption that it's it's own entity right?

    BTD you can't take SS off the table.  Your argument is no more sound then the excuses used by the right to remove military spending from the table.

    Take social security off the table and you take possible tax revenue off the table.

    There is a limit to how much the taxpayer can pay.  

    "Eventually the government runs out of other people's money" - Margaret Thatcher

    Parent

    Good link on (none / 0) (#81)
    by Slado on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 05:40:01 PM EST
    How SS fund is actual DEBT

    Parent
    Good luck trying to explain it. (none / 0) (#97)
    by Buckeye on Fri Jan 28, 2011 at 09:17:26 AM EST
    Taking SS "off the table" (none / 0) (#99)
    by Buckeye on Fri Jan 28, 2011 at 09:53:45 AM EST
    which by the way both sides are doing (current polling of the Tea Party shows they do not want to mess with SS either) has two consequences:

    1.  A big piece of the federal pie is left untouched.  That means taxes or spending cuts are going to have to be that much larger everywhere else.  SS is currently the number one spend.

    2. You are ignoring a program that will add $2.6T to our debt over the next 25 years.

    Remove the cap and create a SS flat tax.  I think the American people would get behind it, especially if the only other option that was presented to them was cutting benefits to current recipients.

    Parent
    Leave the SS tax tied to income. (none / 0) (#100)
    by jeffinalabama on Fri Jan 28, 2011 at 11:31:38 AM EST
    More you make, more you pay... unless you mean a flat rate, like we have now for all income groups. Am I understanding you?

    Parent
    I meant a flat rate. (none / 0) (#101)
    by Buckeye on Fri Jan 28, 2011 at 01:22:27 PM EST
    6.25% at all income levels.

    Parent
    thought so, wasn't sure. (none / 0) (#102)
    by jeffinalabama on Fri Jan 28, 2011 at 02:25:34 PM EST
    thanks for clarifying.

    Parent
    The "debt crisis" is not what is hurting (none / 0) (#41)
    by ruffian on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 02:46:43 PM EST
    the economy. The root of the economic downturn is the same thing it was 4 years ago - the housing crisis. Nothing has been done to remedy that. Foreclosures this year will equal or exceed that of last year and the year before. No one is going to help create demand in the economy when they are in or under threat of foreclosure.  State and local governments are going to lay more people off because of decreased tax revenues. And on and on. It is a death spiral that could have been arrested with serious action, but we messed around with HAMP and relying on the good will of the banks to work with homeowners instead.

    Like it or not, the economy will not recover until this is addressed. When Paul Ryan or any other pol choose to get serious about housing, I'll start listening.

    Parent

    My brother in law is lucky (5.00 / 1) (#43)
    by NMvoiceofreason on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 02:57:58 PM EST
    ...to have work. A general contractor, he is working as a sub for the only commercial project in town - a set of apartments at the University. He is working for a Florida company, that is here in New Mexico because that is where the work is, and more of the companies are the survivors from the Four Corners and Texas area. Tough to wait out the two to three month lag on getting paid, but better than having no work. Most of the Heavy Equipment companies in Albuquerque have gone bankrupt. Houses in Nevada and California are now worth 1/2 of what they were before... wipes out your equity and puts you underwater.

    Housing will not be fixed. Like some gnarled crypt-keeper, the banks will hold on to their worthless paper and worthless titles while Potters field grows and grows. Just like in "It's a Wonderful Life", the town only prospers when we all prosper, the whole town suffers when penny grasping pound foolish bankers down let people live. Would you rather have 50% of something or 100% of nothing? Republicans will not fix this, as they are under the cryptkeepers spell. So because we allowed idiots to be elected, we are all doomed....

    Parent

    Pols are so much more comfortable with their (none / 0) (#54)
    by ruffian on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 03:19:50 PM EST
    old perpetual arguments over taxing and spending levels. It's just a distraction from the real problem they don't want to face. No wonder Obama embraced the "deficit crisis" with both arms.

    Parent
    Housing and debt are the same thing (none / 0) (#77)
    by Slado on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 05:21:10 PM EST
    The housing crisis is a debt crisis.  Money was borrowed against property and a bubble burst.

    Whether it's business debt, personnel debt in mortgages, credit card debt or government debt it's all dragging down the economy.

    What would you call the housing crisis?  A lack of houses?  We have to many houses, to much borrowed capital against depreciating assets.  In essence a debt problem.

    Our economy at it's peak when you added up all the debt was almost 400% in the hole.  that is it owed 4 dollars in debt when you added it all up vs. one dollar of GDP.

    Put simply that's unsustainable.

    You are right about one thing.  It's not just government debt that's the problem.  It's all debt.

    Parent

    Ok, I'll accept that (none / 0) (#94)
    by ruffian on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 09:58:21 PM EST
    We have a debt problem in which only some of the borrowers got bailed out. Of all the debt you named, government debt is the least of the drags on the current economy.

    Parent
    Do you think Shrum even reads (none / 0) (#1)
    by observed on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 11:12:49 AM EST
    the unemployment figures?

    Does Mathews read the Bible (5.00 / 1) (#8)
    by Towanda on Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 12:55:49 PM EST
    -- that is, the Bible of Vince Lombardi?  Mathews ought to do so and then rethink making that parallel.  For just one example, to paraphrase the great Vince:

    The difference between a successful [president]  and others is not a lack of strength, not a lack of knowledge, but rather a lack of will.

    Or:

    Some of us will do our jobs well and some will not, but we will be judged by only one thing--the result.

    Or the classic:

    Show me a good loser, and I'll show you a loser.


    Parent