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Mubarak Ready to Go, Will Address Nation Today

By Jeralyn, Section Foreign Affairs
Posted on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 12:41:31 PM EST
Tags: Egypt, Hosni Mubarak (all tags)
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The BBC says Hosni Mubarak has scheduled a news conference. It is expected he will give up his power now -- or at least, as one official tells BBC, he won't be President on Friday.

More here.

Al Jazeera has this profile of Omar Suleiman.

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    Mubarak Ready to Go, Will Address Nation Today | 201 comments (201 topical)
    great news (5.00 / 4) (#1)
    by Capt Howdy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 12:46:03 PM EST
    knew it was coming.

    Jeralyn
    I sent an email to you that is very important to me.
    I would love to know if what I asked in it was possible.  little freaked. help

    Jeralyn (5.00 / 3) (#25)
    by Capt Howdy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 01:41:59 PM EST
    its very important that I communicate with you.

    could someone rate the above comment a 5 possibly to get this moved to the top?
    I would appreciate it.

    Parent

    Done capt (none / 0) (#26)
    by jeffinalabama on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 01:44:30 PM EST


    Parent
    thanks jeff (none / 0) (#27)
    by Capt Howdy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 01:44:43 PM EST


    Parent
    if you dont see an email from me (none / 0) (#28)
    by Capt Howdy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 01:45:58 PM EST
    to the TL aol address this morning please let me know so I can try again or something.

    Parent
    thanks a millions J (none / 0) (#36)
    by Capt Howdy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 02:09:05 PM EST
    you can delete this whole thread if you like.

    Parent
    could someone rate the above comment a 5 (none / 0) (#37)
    by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 02:10:43 PM EST

    Well Capt, this clearly shows you are not into sock puppetry.

    Parent
    by the way Capt (none / 0) (#41)
    by DFLer on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 02:18:05 PM EST
    I set my messages to "ignore ratings" so that they display in a time linear fashion.

    If J does the same, ratings don't matter.

    However, as yours is the first comment...it will be at the top anyway for those ignorers.

    Parent

    she got me (none / 0) (#45)
    by Capt Howdy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 02:26:23 PM EST
    thanks everyone.  I am such an idiot.


    Parent
    Come on! (none / 0) (#190)
    by DFLer on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 11:07:57 AM EST
    Be not ashamed of mistakes and thus make them crimes.

    Confucius

    Parent

    funny (none / 0) (#192)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 11:11:06 AM EST


    Parent
    You will not be able to stay home, brother, (5.00 / 1) (#4)
    by jeffinalabama on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 12:58:18 PM EST
    because The Revolution Will Not Be Televised.

    except when (none / 0) (#5)
    by Capt Howdy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 12:59:40 PM EST
    it is

    Parent
    live and uncut. (none / 0) (#6)
    by jeffinalabama on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 01:00:51 PM EST


    Parent
    I want to see the people yelling at (none / 0) (#8)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 01:02:39 PM EST
    each other in the backrooms though :)

    Parent
    Oh, boy, (5.00 / 2) (#7)
    by jeffinalabama on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 01:02:32 PM EST
    my feelings of hope and worry remind me of the days leading up to Tianenmin Square.

    Let's see an orderly change of power.

    As long as (none / 0) (#9)
    by jbindc on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 01:05:35 PM EST
    The military doesn't step in and take over for good.

    Parent
    Two ways to look at it, jb, (none / 0) (#11)
    by jeffinalabama on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 01:08:55 PM EST
    the military has been in power since 1954 is one of them, the second, which I prefer, the change over time has created a moment wherein the people of Egypt finally get a chance at self determination, instead of elites determining for them.

    Yes, there are other possibilities, other issues, but I think that so many of the Egyptians have served their time in the Army that the Army is going to facilitate this transition.

    I hope, anyway.

    Parent

    My spouse phoned (none / 0) (#10)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 01:06:17 PM EST
    said that Egyptian military has decided to function and do its thing (whatever that may be) outside of and unanswering to existing government authority.

    Parent
    Great article (5.00 / 1) (#12)
    by jbindc on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 01:09:02 PM EST
    On that very thought - from a couple of days ago.

    The military's rank and file, who are deployed on the streets, became part of a different regime strategy. There is no doubt that solidarities developed between protesters and soldiers as fellow citizens, but the army's aloof neutrality underscores that its role on the sidelines was intentional. This was prominently on display when the "pro-Mubarak" demonstrators attacked antigovernment protesters in Tahrir on February 2. That the siege of a major city square took place over the course of 16 hours, leaving 13 dead and more than 1,200 wounded, according to the Egyptian Ministry of Health, suggests that the military's orders were conceived to cast its officers as potential saviors from the brutal violence.

    This containment strategy has worked. By politically encircling the protesters, the regime prevented the conflict from extending beyond its grasp. With the protesters caught between regime-engineered violence and regime-manufactured safety, the cabinet generals remained firmly in control of the situation.

    The generals that now man the cabinet also sought to wage a war on the non-protesting population, and they did so without firing a single shot. As the state framed the demonstrators as troublemakers, non-protesting Egyptians experienced the uprising's effects. Banks have been closed since January 27, ATMs have been emptied of their cash, and the prices of food and staples have slowly risen at a time when school is cancelled, offices are closed, and curfews are in effect. Similarly, the Internet and cellular networks were shut off and have been patchy at best since their return.



    Parent
    Interesting article. (5.00 / 1) (#14)
    by jeffinalabama on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 01:15:12 PM EST
    I don't necessarily draw the same conclusions the author does, though. I don't claim to be an Egypt expert, but in terms of social movement in that country, the inability of the regime to completely shut down communication among Egyptians means the crowds will have to have a seat at the table.

    $64,000 question is, who will represent the crowds? a lackey, or someone else?

    Parent

    I think (none / 0) (#15)
    by jbindc on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 01:17:01 PM EST
    That's what the world is holding its collective breath to find out.

    Parent
    No confidence in the government (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by jeffinalabama on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 01:09:37 PM EST
    by the only functioning social institution.

    Parent
    By God Mubarak is a crusting old (none / 0) (#17)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 01:19:27 PM EST
    blankety blank.  I am left with the feeling that digging in like a tick took him far in getting where he is.  Sad how that technique can lead to global recongnition too.  Go Egypt Go!  Shed your parasites!

    Parent
    I went over to Juan Cole's site, (5.00 / 2) (#22)
    by Anne on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 01:37:18 PM EST
    Informed Comment, to see what he might be posting in light of developments, and while he has nothing about the imminent - we think - events, I did find this:

    It is no secret that President Barack Obama has been in some regards a profound disappointment to the American Left, and his erratic and often disgraceful performance on the Egypt crisis exemplifies his faults in this regard. (Tom Engelhardt puts it best regarding the administration: "It has shown itself to be weak, visibly fearful, at a loss for what to do, and always several steps behind developing events.") Obama just seems to lack empathy with the little people and is unwilling to buck the rich and powerful, even though they all opposed his run for the presidency. As Iran's speaker of the house put it, the Obama administration, faced with a choice of supporting the youth revolution or the camels unleashed on it, has chosen the camels. It makes a person think there should be rule that no one can run for the presidency who didn't have a proper father figure in his or her life (Bill Clinton, W., Obama), since apparently once they get into office they start thinking the billionaires are their long-lost parent, whom they have to bend over backward to please.

    which speaks to how I've been feeling about whatever role we are playing in the Egyptian revolution.  And I say "whatever" role, because while at times I hear people saying the right words, I get stuck on Omar Suleiman, and then think maybe these are "just" words - lip service to democratic reform.

    I guess we will have to see how it plays out; I am pulling for the people of Egypt to be able to get out from under the thumb of dictatorship, and hoping that our leaders are smart enough to understand that swapping out one authoritarian for another is not going to make us any friends in that part of the world.

    But I keep getting the feeling that our government leaders caring about the people of Egypt is about on the same level as them caring about the people of America - if you aren't rich and powerful and can't do anything for them, you aren't worth spit.

    We don't want to repeat the Neocon mistake (5.00 / 2) (#43)
    by MKS on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 02:21:48 PM EST
    On Egypt, so far, so good:

    Keeping violence down.  Yes, some violence but not out of control.

    Mubarak gone.  Yes, looks like it.

    Isalamic revolutionaries in control.  Not yet.  So, again, not a bad result--so far.

    A functioning Democracy?  Who knows.  But the key is to leave it to the Egyptians....Standing up for democracy is a good thing--dictating to other countries on how they achieve that, is not.

    Some may want a more heavy-handed approach from Obama--taking sides publicly.....But that would only mess things up.  The U.S. would be perceived as dictating the result....

    And just how helpful would all that be?  We do not want to go the neocon route and advocate that the fires of freedowm sweep the world as Bush advocated in his second Inaugural Address.....

    Parent

    I think the people of Egypt have had (5.00 / 1) (#47)
    by Anne on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 02:46:04 PM EST
    quite enough of dictators, whether in literal control of their country, or in the public - or private - attempts to control the outcome.  And I have no reason to think the Egyptian people aren't smart enough to know that regardless of what is being said in public, it will be what is done in private that matters - and that the US is undoubtedly playing a behind-the-scenes role.  If I were an Egyptian, I might be wondering...if the US's public voice is in support of Suleiman, what could they be cooking up in private?

    I was not an am not suggesting that Obama should have taken on the Egyptian crisis as if it was our responsibility to "fix" things, but what I am reading and hearing is that the US was way behind the curve on this whole thing, being taken quite by surprise when it started coming apart.  

    And then what did we do?  Sent super-lobbyist for the Egyptian government - the Mubarak government -Frank Wisner - to Egypt to make some kind of magic - and what he said and did we had to quickly disavow.  A brilliant move, eh?

    Hillary can't decide what to say or do, so what she says keeps changing - not a lot of help there, which is disappointing.

    Joe Biden?  The Master of the Middle East?  Oh, brother.

    I feel like the lot of them are little more than silver balls rolling around a pinball machine that's on "tilt;" or, as my son-in-law likes to say: it's a freakin' goat rodeo.


    Parent

    Well, the call from Egypt (5.00 / 2) (#115)
    by Towanda on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 05:26:08 PM EST
    came at 2 a.m. D.C. time.  So cut Obama some slack; he knew from the campaign that the call to worry about would come at 3 a.m.

    Parent
    Obama sat on a shameful fence (none / 0) (#29)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 01:46:00 PM EST
    When it was time to champion democracy.  For someone supposedly as intelligent as he is, he is certainly very scared to make any sudden moves that he might have to use an intellect in the future to defend.

    Parent
    I picture them with hands outstretched, (5.00 / 2) (#35)
    by Anne on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 02:07:37 PM EST
    palms-up, looking from one hand to the other and saying, "Okay, democracy?...control;  democracy?...control," and hoping they can have both by trying - once again - to split the difference.

    Call me crazy - it wouldn't be the first time - but if Suleiman is what you get when you split the difference, ultimately, there is no difference.  I don't think Obama and his brain trust give a flying fig about the people of Egypt; they care about power and control, and they want someone they think they can control.

    Besides, Suleiman knows where all the bodies are buried, and we all know how valuable that is to one's political fortunes, don't we?


    Parent

    Nicholas Kristof (NYT) (none / 0) (#48)
    by KeysDan on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 02:51:25 PM EST
    in his op-ed today, also expresses concerns along the general lines of Juan Cole.   In my view,  President Obama, Vice President Biden and Secretary Clinton have not covered themselves with glory.

    Of course Egypt presents a challenge for US foreign policy makers but they seemed to feel it would all blow over at first (Mubarak is not a dictator, Egypt is stable), they then seemed to catch-up to events (the transition must start, now.(and now was defined by Gibbs as 'yesterday'), sent Envoy Wisner, apparently to coax Mubarak out the door and let Omar Suleiman take over.

    However, wobbliness  again set in with Wisner's 'private comments'  that Mubarak needed to stay until September to manage the transition--a statement that the WH tried to distance itself from, but  at the same time seemed to be picking up on the idea in response to the freaked out leaders of the MIddle East.

    If the analysis was that the protests would fizzle out and require only a policy of waiting it out and, perhaps, throwing a bone or two of reform, they were making a mistake that Wael Ghonim could have steered them away from.

    Now, the transition will begin without Mubarak as president.  And, hopefully without Mubarak still exerting power. Should Mubarak plan to stay at Sharm el-Sheifk, he should be urged to take up residency at one of his many homes out of the country--for starters.  Suleiman, it seems, is likely to be the interim leader and, hopefully, a very short term one. However, to be even moderately successful during the transition will mean that he needs to study up on the definition of democracy  and, maybe, read up on Reagan's ability to project optimism. Perhaps, he. too, can "alter the trajectory of his country".

    Parent

    I'll bet you as this unfolds though (none / 0) (#31)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 01:49:09 PM EST
    If he doesn't have some crisis of his own that distracts, he comes out fighting for Suleiman just like he has fought for all POS status quo that is currently destroying the daily well being of American lives.

    Parent
    Hasn't the Obama admins. consistently (none / 0) (#32)
    by oculus on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 01:50:40 PM EST
    backed Suleiman since the protests began?

    Parent
    Quietly so it seemed to me (none / 0) (#50)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 02:57:22 PM EST


    Parent
    Obama sat on a shameful fence (none / 0) (#38)
    by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 02:13:45 PM EST

    He was well practiced in Iran.  Shameful is as shameful does.

    Parent
    Fence sitting--or publicly being neutral (5.00 / 1) (#44)
    by MKS on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 02:23:47 PM EST
    We are not the world's policeman....And especially in the Arab and Muslim world, throwing our weight around, telling other countries what to do, is not such a good idea.....

    Parent
    We are not the world's policeman... (5.00 / 1) (#124)
    by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 07:53:01 PM EST

    That by no means the prez needs to be silent when dictators steal elections or abuse human rights.

    Parent
    Hardly silent (none / 0) (#200)
    by MKS on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 11:37:17 AM EST


    Parent
    How can we give Egypt everything it needs (none / 0) (#54)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 02:59:27 PM EST
    to suppress its own people with, and not champion democracy and throw the weight of democracy around there?  Who have we become when we outfit dictators in order to better suppress their people?

    Parent
    Camp David accords. (none / 0) (#56)
    by jeffinalabama on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 03:02:05 PM EST
    the treaty locked us into some funding of Egypt and Israel that's not governed by whether we want to or not...

    I'll dig up what I can, but it will be old info.

    Parent

    I understand where our (none / 0) (#59)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 03:07:36 PM EST
    support originates from, but really Jeff.....if we are going to allow them to use our tanks and helicopters and fighter jets to suppress people seeking democracy we are totally phucked anymore.  Any president with a set of anything would be stepping out boldly on this.  Giving Egypt certain things allowed them to be on a more equal footing with Israel...and great, but there are other points to visit or we are only stocking more Egyptian prisons with people who will be tortured into planning the next terrorist attack upon the United States. It isn't rocket science even when only coming from the perspective of global security.

    Parent
    Oh, then my response was (5.00 / 1) (#69)
    by jeffinalabama on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 03:36:06 PM EST
    talking past you. Sorry. I misunderstood what you were saying in the post I replied to. I'm too much in 'intro class' mode. for example, talking about taboos today, 23 out of 25 students did NOT know what necrophilia means. Time to go home and read and remember not everything is intro level, lol!

    I've got a bug in my arse about our 'in perpetuity' support toward certain regimes, also. But I'm not gonna throw kerosine on the fire in this thread.

    Parent

    I hear (5.00 / 1) (#51)
    by star on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 02:58:00 PM EST
    a lot of ME and I from him. he is not going anywhere soon :(

    How many revolutions (5.00 / 1) (#140)
    by Towanda on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 10:43:20 PM EST
    have been won in a few weeks?  And against a leader who has amassed power for a few decades?  

    Seriously, I don't know; the revolutions that I have studied, the ones that won, took years and years -- but my range of knowledge in-depth of more than a handful of revolutions is not extensive.  So others here may have examples that are applicable.

    I think, though, from reading and from watching AJ that many of the protesters in Egypt are not naive and are in this for the long haul.  So I hope that they can succeed, because realists among revolutionaries are the ones who do.  

    But Mubararak's latest move on a Thursday worries me.  He knows (as do we now who follow AJ) that Friday is the traditional day of protest in Egypt, specifically in Cairo and at Tahir Square, the first day of the weekend that can bring out massive crowds.  Why this timing of his speech that would be guaranteed to do so tomorrow?  What will those massive crowds meet -- again?

    EL Baradei writes NYT opinion piece: (5.00 / 1) (#141)
    by shoephone on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 11:19:49 PM EST
    The United States and its allies have spent the better part of the last decade, at a cost of hundreds of billions of dollars and countless lives, fighting wars to establish democracy in Iraq and Afghanistan. Now that the youth of Cairo, armed with nothing but Facebook and the power of their convictions, have drawn millions into the street to demand a true Egyptian democracy, it would be absurd to continue to tacitly endorse the rule of a regime that has lost its own people's trust.

    Read the whole thing.

    God that's a great writing (none / 0) (#146)
    by Militarytracy on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 06:26:00 AM EST


    Parent
    Rumors (5.00 / 1) (#150)
    by star on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 08:31:38 AM EST
    That Mubarak and family left Egypt from an airforce base on friday. This reported in times of India. Am not sure how trustworthy it is..but Times is a leading Newpaper in India.


    Most reports (none / 0) (#163)
    by CoralGables on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 10:09:50 AM EST
    are that he is in Sharm el-Sheikh, which is pretty much like catching a helicopter to Camp David I think.

    Parent
    yay! (5.00 / 1) (#162)
    by star on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 10:05:09 AM EST
    MUBARAK IS GONE !!!! army in control

    and the crowd goes wild (none / 0) (#164)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 10:11:41 AM EST


    Parent
    Congratulations Egypt (none / 0) (#195)
    by Militarytracy on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 11:16:41 AM EST
    Many of us around the world admire and applaud you.

    Parent
    Emotional! (5.00 / 1) (#168)
    by star on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 10:25:32 AM EST
    It is awesome to see the emotions out there.. Gosh so many of them have not seen an Egypt with out Mubarak! Wish he had exited yesterday.. at least for the sake of my kids, who I had excused from homework yesterday to watch AL Jazeera live stream hoping to show them history being made. Today they are both at school :(

    it is amazing truly (none / 0) (#170)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 10:27:30 AM EST
    cant help getting a little choked up.  it could have come down so differently.

    Parent
    The joy of the people in the square, (5.00 / 1) (#176)
    by Anne on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 10:37:40 AM EST
    and the raw emotion in the voices of the people talking on al Jazeera is amazing, overwhelming, and truly a thing of inspiration and beauty.

    I hope they understand how proud people all over the world are of them, for their courage, for their commitment, for never giving up on freedom.

    We have grown complacent here, and I hope these events give us all the courage of our own convictions, remind us all of what's at stake, and inspire us to participating as fully as we can, as vocally as we can, in our own democracy.

    Parent

    It's great to see him (none / 0) (#174)
    by brodie on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 10:36:39 AM EST
    gone, looks like a permanent vacation in San Clemente.

    I just wish he'd left Egypt with a more benign Gerald Ford figure running things.  Suleiman in charge is more akin to having a scary Dick Helms or Allen Dulles take over, backed by the military.  

    It will be interesting to see how this plays out, and whether the protesters will come back and demand further change given the matter of upcoming elections.

    Parent

    I think we can be fairly (none / 0) (#178)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 10:39:19 AM EST
    sure after the last few days that they will not be denied.  Suliman is a transitional figure.  he knows it.

    Parent
    one name I have been hearing a lot (none / 0) (#183)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 10:43:02 AM EST
    and expect to hear more of is Amr Moussa.

    Parent
    That it's the beginning of the end (none / 0) (#185)
    by Towanda on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 10:48:09 AM EST
    is exactly what interviewees there at the square are saying -- that is, they know that this is only a first step, incredibly significant as it is.  And statements for weeks make clear that Suleiman is unacceptable and is regime continuation, not regime change.

    So I would expect that the Egyptian protesters will not stop now.  However, helpful to them in ongoing efforts would be for people around the world, and their media, to not see this step simplistically as the end but, again, as the beginning of the end.

    Now we will see if American media and politicians capture the complexity or resort to the usual simplistic reporting.


    Parent

    You know the answer to that question (none / 0) (#186)
    by ks on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 10:51:35 AM EST
    The "media event" part of this is almost over.  They will continue the simplistic narratives and move on.

    Parent
    I hope the US media have the (none / 0) (#188)
    by Anne on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 10:55:22 AM EST
    sense to let the events  - the visuals, the joy and pride of the Egyptian people - speak for themselves, at least for the moment; there are just times when our voices don't need to be narrating something so historic.

    But I'm putting my money on "simplistic."

    Parent

    Btw, that parallel in history (none / 0) (#189)
    by Towanda on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 11:06:40 AM EST
    resonates for me throughout this as well.

    So I look forward to a fascinating report, some day, of just who was Egypt's Barry Goldwater who got to Mubarak last night to accomplish this 180.

    Parent

    no doubt (none / 0) (#191)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 11:10:14 AM EST
    it was leaders of the army who said, lets talk.

    everyone has pretty much know thats now it would.
    no one else could have.  particularly since Hosni is apparently the original bubble boy and no doubt never expected this outcome.

    Parent

    That occurred to me, too, of course (none / 0) (#194)
    by Towanda on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 11:13:20 AM EST
    but I always enjoy the unanticipated twists and turns of history, and Egypt has given us a few before.

    Parent
    Hope (5.00 / 1) (#171)
    by star on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 10:29:25 AM EST
    This gives hope to so many others in the region under so much oppression. Of course the real work starts now ..Egyptian people have started something so important, hope they will have the strength to continue the secular traditions and establish a thriving and modern Egypt. I am sure all the other dictators in the region, Syria, yemen, saudi all of them are trembling in fear.

    of course it will. (none / 0) (#172)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 10:32:44 AM EST
    how could it not.  egypt is the heart of the arab world.  it is the largest arab country.

    the Sauds and the Mullas are changing their panties right now.

    a prediction, this WILL spread.  Iran is already cracking down for a planned protest on monday.  next week we may have a whole new thing.

    Parent

    oh (none / 0) (#173)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 10:33:20 AM EST
    and Glen Becks head just exploded.

    Parent
    I also noticed a few (none / 0) (#179)
    by brodie on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 10:39:32 AM EST
    days ago that Tweety, somewhat nervous and skeptical about the anti-Mubarak movement in the early going, was shifting political gears and saying some nice things about the Egyptian democracy movement.

    Parent
    its been happening all over (none / 0) (#180)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 10:40:58 AM EST
    the lame misguided us media for the last few days.

    Parent
    the credit goes to the people (5.00 / 3) (#177)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 10:37:55 AM EST
    even after yesterdays clear provocation to violence they stayed true and firm.

    I tip my hat to them.  I am in awe.  this was started by a bunch of kids using social networking sites.

    The People (none / 0) (#182)
    by brodie on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 10:43:00 AM EST
    in an unusual 15-round nonviolent knockout of the dreaded defending champion Mubarak.  Round after round of dancing and taunting, until the champ finally collapsed from exhaustion.

    Parent
    that is the single most important point (none / 0) (#184)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 10:44:08 AM EST
    I think.  in the land that invented the suicide bomber people have been shown there is a different way.

    Parent
    Well done (5.00 / 2) (#181)
    by ks on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 10:42:41 AM EST
    Great first step.

    Yep.... (none / 0) (#187)
    by kdog on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 10:53:58 AM EST
    Total awesomeness...Hosni down, Sully and assorted torturous thieving cronies to follow by Sept...I don't think there is anything stopping the freedom on the march in Egypt now.  The people have won the first battle, and it was a biggie.

    People power still works, so heartening to see...if the people have the stones to put their neck on the line.  

    The people of Egypt have set a high standard...who will follow?

    Parent

    Well (none / 0) (#198)
    by ks on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 11:35:37 AM EST
    I tend to be a cynical sort so I'm iffy at best on the ultimate outcome here and actually I think Egypt picked up the baton from Tunisa, no? So, who is nexr?  While there may be protests here and there I don't think the two other big dominos, SA and Iran, are panicking because they, unlike Egypt, won't hesitate to use violence and aren't dependent on US aid/support.  

    Parent
    ha ha ha (none / 0) (#2)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 12:52:16 PM EST
    The information minister says that Mubarak is not leaving, it is not true that he is stepping down.  But this is not a coup :)  I repeat, this is not a coup :)

    I'm hoping Mubarak will be considerate (none / 0) (#3)
    by lilburro on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 12:55:45 PM EST
    enough to step down at around 5:30 EST when I leave work so I can pay better attention.  For now listening to AJ at my desk.

    Does this mean... (none / 0) (#16)
    by kdog on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 01:18:37 PM EST
    Omar "Same Old Sh*t" Sulieman assumes the presidency?  I do not think that will satisy the Egyptian people.

    Yes, I believe so. (none / 0) (#18)
    by jbindc on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 01:22:05 PM EST
    Which is why no one in power has been rushing with giddiness and joy for Mubarak to step down.

    Better to dance with the devil you know, and all that.

    Parent

    thus far (none / 0) (#19)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 01:26:16 PM EST
    they have said that the Mossad puppet Suleiman will have a role.  I hope this isn't all puppet theater.

    Parent
    You're a betting man kdog (none / 0) (#20)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 01:30:37 PM EST
    What odds you giving Suleiman?  This girl from the land of Patriot Act and FISA gives him 75% chance of being the new leader of Egypt.

    Parent
    He is the first Egyptian VP evah. (none / 0) (#23)
    by oculus on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 01:38:28 PM EST
    Of course he'll take over.

    Parent
    Thats a good line... (none / 0) (#30)
    by kdog on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 01:47:36 PM EST
    and also a 75% chance the square will still be standing room only as Omar is being sworn in.

    Like we discussed awhile back...I'd be too scared to go home under President Sully if I was a protestor...lest the secret police come knocking in 2 weeks.

    Parent

    Kukla, Fran, and Ollie? (none / 0) (#21)
    by jbindc on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 01:30:52 PM EST


    Parent
    wow, now, that is an oldie (none / 0) (#34)
    by byteb on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 02:04:41 PM EST
    but still a goodie.

    Parent
    Talk about (none / 0) (#39)
    by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 02:15:54 PM EST
    showing your age!

    Parent
    Surprise! (none / 0) (#42)
    by jbindc on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 02:18:54 PM EST
    I'm only 42!

    But I know "older" pop culture better than I do "newer" pop culture.

    Parent

    Wet behind the ears (5.00 / 1) (#46)
    by jeffinalabama on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 02:36:14 PM EST
    babe in arms!

    Parent
    Al Jazeera: 62 yrs. of post-British rule, (none / 0) (#24)
    by oculus on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 01:41:00 PM EST
    all Egypt's leaders came from the military.  

    Uh huh. (none / 0) (#40)
    by oculus on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 02:16:44 PM EST


    Parent
    He doesn't sound like he's leaving to me (none / 0) (#49)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 02:54:31 PM EST
    He is talking about how he is going to punish people for harming others :)  And he still isn't running for reelection.

    Yep (5.00 / 1) (#97)
    by sj on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 04:24:12 PM EST
    I really think he WAS expecting to ride it out.  And that "punish people for harming others" sounds like a crack-down is being organized.

    Parent
    Der Spegel (none / 0) (#52)
    by jbindc on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 02:58:11 PM EST
    Reported that the German government offered Murbarak a dignified exit by going to a "hospital stay" in Germany, which was turned down.

    Parent
    I think he was pretty clear that he's not (none / 0) (#70)
    by Anne on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 03:37:18 PM EST
    giving up his office until September, even if he intends to transfer "some" duties to Suleiman.

    It does not comfort me that I picture the likes of Obama, Biden, Clinton and the rest of them wringing their hands over this, instead of having some defined position and plan for how we are going to respond.

    What to do, what to do?  

    Yeesh.

    Parent

    Suleiman is no (5.00 / 1) (#95)
    by BackFromOhio on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 04:20:29 PM EST
    improvement; his remaining in the government will not stop the protests.

    Parent
    In all honesty, Anne (none / 0) (#122)
    by christinep on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 06:53:55 PM EST
    what should we do? In light of our position in the MidEast--especially after the warlike incursions of Bush--what would you do? In light of the 50+ years of American "diplomacy" with regard to Egypt (and with regard to our stated obligations toward Israel), what should this latest administration do? My point: It ain't so simple! Unless I'm missing something in the present as to the precise steps that a US government in 2011 can actually do today in Egypt...?  (My own perception is that the Egyptians are going to pleasantly surprise all of us with their self-determination...as it should be.)

    Parent
    Suspected (none / 0) (#53)
    by star on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 02:59:27 PM EST
    This is how it is going to be. He has solid backing from big player in Arab world, like Saudi, Syria, UAE and clandestine one from US and other western world.

    If he has clandestine backing (5.00 / 2) (#55)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 03:02:03 PM EST
    from Obama....shame on Obama!  SHAME ON HIM!  Not like that is something new.  I say it every day and it doesn't make a damn bit of difference.  The people in the square are flipping out now.

    Parent
    Yes (none / 0) (#126)
    by BackFromOhio on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 08:09:19 PM EST
    Al J et al reporting that the people are livid and tomorrow's demonstrations will be bigger than anything that's occurred up to now.  The current leaders think the protesters have been swayed by radicals whatever and don't understand what they are doing or who is leading -- convenient huh -- but it seems that the Egyptian people are not persuaded by M handing powers to S and promises of commissions to look into reforms.

    Parent
    Mubarak Ready to Go? NOT (none / 0) (#57)
    by Andreas on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 03:06:19 PM EST
    Who said that this tool of US imperialism is ready to go?

    He's daring (none / 0) (#58)
    by jbindc on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 03:07:14 PM EST
    one of the generals to walk in his room and put a bullet in him.

    If he lives to September, I would be surprised.

    that's the question (none / 0) (#61)
    by lilburro on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 03:16:35 PM EST
    why did the Egyptian military say what they did and do what they did today?  I mean even Panetta suggested Mubarak might very well step down today.  I think something went wrong.  Who knows.  If Mubarak is just doing this out of ego I think he will be gone in a few days.

    Parent
    My personal conspiracy theory (none / 0) (#62)
    by jbindc on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 03:19:32 PM EST
    Between the Germans offering him safe passage for a "hopsital stay" (even though he said he doesn't need a hospital), and now this belligerance - I wonder if he has some terminal disease and it's just a matter of how he dies.  Of course, if he's assassinated, he also becomes a martyr to all who support him (remember - we are only seeing the protestors against him on the news.  How many people support him outside of the protests, like in the countryside?)

    He knows he's going down.  Maybe he just wanted to choose the martyr route.

    Parent

    Far fetched (none / 0) (#64)
    by star on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 03:21:47 PM EST
    This theory seems a bit far fetched. But he did talk today as well as in an earlier speech about his final resting place being Egypt. So maybe he is going a la Hitler route.

    Parent
    What did the Egyptian military (none / 0) (#127)
    by BackFromOhio on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 08:10:55 PM EST
    do/say today?

    I think in the end, the result will hinge on whether the military sides with the people or the present government.  

    Parent

    I was reading the live blog at AJ (none / 0) (#138)
    by lilburro on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 10:03:47 PM EST
    it sounded like the military was promising the people would get what they wanted, and the army seemed sympathetic to the protesters.

    Parent
    Crazy (none / 0) (#60)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 03:16:34 PM EST
    Like many powerful dictators he's crazy as hell and it is all about him, end of discussion.  How ugly does this have to get?  I have a feeling our Obama administration is clueless about what is going on period too.  I don't think they knew $h*t about what was going to go down this go around just like they were clueless about the rage building in the middle east.

    Obama Administration (none / 0) (#63)
    by star on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 03:19:51 PM EST
    looks totally clueless. Now they want Mubarak, now they dont..now they want suleiman now they dont.. total amateur..If we are feeling this frustrated, I cannot imagine the anguish and anger of those in Egypt.  

    Parent
    According to CNN (none / 0) (#65)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 03:28:25 PM EST
    they say that people are marching now toward either state television or the palace.  My heart goes out to Egypt.  People have died so far, I think more people will die now.

    Parent
    Ha...Leon Panetta (none / 0) (#66)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 03:33:31 PM EST
    told everyone that Mubarak was stepping down and NOT WHAT HAPPENED.  This is an administration of incompetence on so many levels in so many areas.

    It does sound like that sly fox, that dictator (none / 0) (#123)
    by christinep on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 06:57:35 PM EST
    Mubarak surprised everyonw--Al Jazeera, those in the square, the several governments (including the US), and some of those "sources" closest to him.  Based upon the various evening news programs, there does seem to have been a change in Mubarak's approach--from leaving to not--over the course of the day.  I guess that is what dictators do.  (We'll find out more tomorrow.)

    Parent
    Now Suleiman is going to address (none / 0) (#67)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 03:34:47 PM EST
    the people.  We will know shortly exactly how the protesters feel about Suleiman running them.

    CNN says that the Generals are siding (none / 0) (#68)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 03:36:03 PM EST
    with Suleiman.

    Parent
    According to BBC (none / 0) (#71)
    by jbindc on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 03:38:32 PM EST
    Sulieman will only get some powers.  Murbarak is not transferring powers until after the September election.

    "I express a commitment to carry on and protect the constitution and the people and transfer power to whomever is elected next September in free and transparent elections," Mr Mubarak said.


    Parent
    Suleiman speaking now (none / 0) (#72)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 03:38:35 PM EST


    Yeah - "go back to work, don't (none / 0) (#74)
    by Anne on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 03:41:16 PM EST
    listen to the satellite television that is only trying to fuel chaos..."

    That's reassuring...

    Parent

    The people who have spoken to (none / 0) (#76)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 03:45:35 PM EST
    reporters were very clear about being there for themselves and their families, they weren't there because of satellite television coverage :)  The people seem to be figuring out how they are going to process this but I don't think it is going to lead where the status quo wants it to.

    Parent
    But I think Suleiman sealed his fate (none / 0) (#77)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 03:46:35 PM EST
    with address where the people are concerned.  He has now made it clear he is with the darkside.

    Parent
    Yup (none / 0) (#79)
    by lilburro on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 03:49:14 PM EST
    and looks like the Al Jazeera live video feed is down...hopefully that's not the work of the gov't.  As Zakaria said on CNN, maybe Mubarak is baiting the people into violence.  Who knows.

    Parent
    AL Jazeera (none / 0) (#83)
    by star on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 03:56:27 PM EST
    live feed is on. Am watching it right now.

    Parent
    Suleiman (none / 0) (#81)
    by star on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 03:55:05 PM EST
    looks and sounds more sinister than Hosni himself.. I did not like the tone of his speech. Gave a bad feeling that he, and the army are making some bad plans if crowd gets larger tomorrow.

    Parent
    You can probably read him better (none / 0) (#84)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 03:57:16 PM EST
    than I can. He struck me as very slick.

    Parent
    Professional torturer and thug (none / 0) (#90)
    by Andreas on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 04:07:49 PM EST
    The main "professions" of Omar Suleiman are torturer and thug. A vicious and unscrupulous character.

    Parent
    Do you think (none / 0) (#78)
    by jbindc on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 03:48:02 PM EST
    The people who gave up on the protests after a couple of days and got back to their lives will now rejoin and reinvigorate them?

    Parent
    If the protesters shift to (none / 0) (#80)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 03:50:11 PM EST
    state television and the palace as well as protesting in the square, yes...I think the protesting will be reinvigorated and even larger as they take the fight closer to those they fight.

    Parent
    We will not allow a chaotic agenda..... (none / 0) (#73)
    by vicndabx on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 03:39:10 PM EST
    "take the path together...."

    What's wrong w/that?  It's not like September isn't going to come and go w/out all kinds of pressure on Egyptian leaders to follow thru on promises made.

    Well that's it (none / 0) (#75)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 03:42:56 PM EST
    Suleiman told them all to go home and blamed the "satellite" stations for stirring this all up.  The people are going to be mad as hell now.

    Mad as hell maybe (3.00 / 3) (#87)
    by CoralGables on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 04:04:07 PM EST
    but if they have common sense they will go home.

    Parent
    I don't think that any of us (5.00 / 2) (#92)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 04:08:47 PM EST
    have a clue what the Egyptian people have been dealing with and trying to survive.  Sorry, but I have always agreed with Zapata and that it is better to die on your feet than live on your knees.

    Parent
    Protesting is good (none / 0) (#119)
    by CoralGables on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 05:33:25 PM EST
    but expecting the perfect outcome will usually lead to less than good. They've brought about change. Having a government step down immediately would likely lead to military rule. I don't ever want that.

    Parent
    I think the more the Egyptian duo (none / 0) (#129)
    by BackFromOhio on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 08:22:00 PM EST
    of M&S articulate such a paternalistic and condescending view of the people, and continue to treat them as though they will be mollified with promises of commissions to study reforms, the more strongly the Egyptians will press for real change.  Never underestimate the opposition.  

    Parent
    Yeah, because it's just common sense (5.00 / 2) (#104)
    by sj on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 04:38:54 PM EST
    to accept oppression.  Throwing off its yoke is dangerous work.  Something I'm pretty sure they're aware of.

    Frankly, I'm glad the US founding fathers didn't have "common sense".  And I'm glad the Labor leaders of the past didn't have "common sense".  And I'm glad MLK didn't have "common sense".  They all sacrificed to give me and you a pretty safe world to grow up in.

    It sure made their lives dangerous though.  And not everyone survived.

    Each person in that square has a personal decision to make.  Some will make it based on "common sense".  Some will make it on principle.  Not all will survive.

    But making that decision based on "common sense" is no slam, btw.  There are families -- children, parents, spouses, sibling -- to consider.  It will be a deeply personal decision whichever way they go.

    Parent

    "If they have common sense" (none / 0) (#98)
    by shoephone on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 04:24:49 PM EST
    That's perfectly in keeping with the patronizing and patriarchal cr*p from Mubarak. This is Day 17 of a revolution. People on the streets who are fighting for their liberty don't care about admonitions on common sense, especially when Mubarak is the one showing a total lack of it. He's about as far removed from reality as can be.

    Parent
    Maybe (none / 0) (#100)
    by jbindc on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 04:31:26 PM EST
    But he also has things like, tanks.

    Parent
    Some of us in this situation (5.00 / 1) (#101)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 04:36:48 PM EST
    would go home and some of us would stay and fight.  It has always been thus.

    Parent
    I freely admit (none / 0) (#103)
    by jbindc on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 04:38:15 PM EST
    to being a coward. :)

    Parent
    I've always been a pain in (none / 0) (#107)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 04:41:57 PM EST
    authority's a$$ :)  I'm fine with authority as long as it is accountable, and so often it tries to take too many days off with bonus pay :)

    Parent
    I'm pretty sure the people in the streets (5.00 / 2) (#105)
    by shoephone on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 04:39:08 PM EST
    know that. Do you know the definition of the word revolution?

    And did you have the same opinion of the protestors at Tiananmen in 1989 -- that they should just use some common sense and go home because, ya know, the Chinese government had tanks?

    Parent

    I didn't have any opinion of Tianamen (none / 0) (#109)
    by jbindc on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 04:46:04 PM EST
    Because I was a dumb college kid who didn't really pay attention.

    Not sure why you're jumping on me for pointing out the obvious, like the fact that it would be perfectly natural for some people to be afraid and want to use "common sense" and go home when the person they are protesting against has large weapons and at least some members of the army that he could turn against them at a moment's notice.

    Parent

    I'm really trying to come up with a reason (3.50 / 2) (#111)
    by shoephone on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 04:50:22 PM EST
    to continue responding to your comments. But I can't find one.

    Parent
    Not sure why you did in the first place (none / 0) (#112)
    by jbindc on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 04:52:21 PM EST


    Parent
    Tanks (none / 0) (#106)
    by Andreas on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 04:40:12 PM EST
    The people in Egypt must appeal to the international working class to support it by taking up the struggle against imperialism.

    One of the main struggles will have to take place in the United States of America.

    Parent

    Tanks II (5.00 / 1) (#108)
    by shoephone on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 04:44:19 PM EST
    I wonder how many of those tanks have the inscription "Made in the USA" on them...

    Parent
    All of them (none / 0) (#144)
    by Militarytracy on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 05:41:57 AM EST


    Parent
    Saudi Arabia has told Egypt (none / 0) (#82)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 03:55:39 PM EST
    That if the U.S. cuts off aid they will step in and give them aid.  So Saudi Arabia wants no part of a democratic Egypt.  How shocking

    Saudi (none / 0) (#85)
    by star on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 03:59:40 PM EST
    Has also "Told" Obama not to put undue pressure on Mub to leave. actually not to 'Insult' Mubarak into leaving. My cousin in saudi is in agreement. even on the streets, people are not really sympathetic to the protesters.The mullah at her mosque actually prayed for safety of Mubarak last Friday.

    Parent
    Do you think it is because (none / 0) (#86)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 04:02:44 PM EST
    Saudi Arabia is afraid that the unrest will spread to them?

    Parent
    Do more Egyptians have better access (none / 0) (#88)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 04:05:15 PM EST
    to education than those in Saudi Arabia do.

    Parent
    Definitly (none / 0) (#94)
    by star on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 04:15:46 PM EST
    Egypt has good universities and is a center of learning in Arab world. Saudi there is no such thing as real higher education. The saudi rich and uber rich pack their kids to instiutions in UK or US after junior high or even earlier. Exp pats like Indians, Philippinos etc send back kids to their homeland for higher ed. Local saudis middle class (few) and below (most of the remaining population) marry girls for breeding and send boys into family business or madrasa for religious training. They live in a ignorant bubble believing what they are told and questioning religion or ruler is NOT an option at all.

    Parent
    It was my impression that (none / 0) (#99)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 04:25:49 PM EST
    Egyptians have better access to education but I didn't want to jump to conclusions so thank you for sharing your knowledge.

    Parent
    No problem (none / 0) (#102)
    by star on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 04:37:46 PM EST
    The real irony of this Revolution in the Arab world is the total dictators, and authoritarian regimes like Saudi and Syria is Quite, but one of the most modern,  moderate, secular country like Egypt is in total chaos. The people in that region is perplexed. They do not have enough information or world news to believe there could be a domino effect and things might improve for them as well.  

    Parent
    We should take the Saudis... (none / 0) (#121)
    by kdog on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 06:21:17 PM EST
    up on their offer.  Then reallocate our current aid to all the of the M.E. (Israel too) to food, water, cash that we sail over to the region on a some aircraft carriers converted to peace boats, hire unemployed Americans to traverse the land under white flag to spread the love, and our deepest regret for supporting a buncha torturous tyrants over the last 70 years and killing a sh*tload of people ourselves.

    How's that for an idea:)  

    Parent

    Kdog (none / 0) (#125)
    by the capstan on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 07:55:36 PM EST
    I'm send you an early valentine--a red, red rose.  But when you stick it down the muzzle of a rifle, be ready to run.  You are a worthy successor to the peaceniks!

    Parent
    Indeed (none / 0) (#128)
    by CoralGables on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 08:13:30 PM EST
    the flower in the rifle barrel is cute and makes a beautiful picture...unless whoever is in front of it is felled.

    Parent
    An Egyptian just said (none / 0) (#89)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 04:06:13 PM EST
    Give me liberty or give me death :)

    MT - I'm thinking (none / 0) (#130)
    by BackFromOhio on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 08:26:40 PM EST
    the outcome may come down to which side the military backs.  Up thread, someone indicated generals backing Mubarek & Suleiman.  But what about the rank & file?  I thought I read over the weekend that the sympathies of the military rank & file were with the protesters.

    Parent
    Watching this morning (none / 0) (#145)
    by Militarytracy on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 06:07:22 AM EST
    It doesn't look like the military is going to turn on the people right now.  I do know that active duty American soldiers do not have to teach other military from other countries if they feel that it violates their oath of service.

    Because of this most active duty instructors will not allow Saudi students in their classes.  The Saudi military all comes out of the royal families.  The only people trusted with bullets are royalty, the only people dealt in are royalty, and that among other things disturbs and offends most active duty American military.

    Egyptians don't seem to have quite the same problems.  I know that it still disturbs some instructors that they serve a dictatorship, but it does seem like more active duty American instructors are open to having them in their classrooms.  They do seem to be very attached to and bent on serving their people.  I hope that never ends.

    Parent

    Saudi Vs Egypt (none / 0) (#91)
    by star on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 04:08:45 PM EST
    People have far less freedom in saudi compared to Egypt. My cousin was arguing with me when I was talking FOR the protesters. She was wondering what they got to complain about, when Egyptian women can go to collage, drive a car, open bank accounts, can file a complaint if her husband beats her , need not cover every part of their body and little girls can actually play a sport, any sport. Men need not worry to go club to celebrate , youth have the freedom to pick what they want to study.. relative peace (no war) economy better than most other countries in mid east...
    so what is atrocious to most of us, is pretty good  scenario for so many others ...

    I suppose that is the problem with (5.00 / 1) (#93)
    by Militarytracy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 04:10:29 PM EST
    giving people a taste, they begin to want the meal :)

    Parent
    Egypt is a far more (none / 0) (#96)
    by BackFromOhio on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 04:21:12 PM EST
    secular society

    Parent
    The latest from the (none / 0) (#110)
    by shoephone on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 04:47:35 PM EST
    NYT Lede :

    Following President Hosni Mubarak's speech, Mohamed ElBaradei wrote on Twitter: "Egypt will explode. Army must save the country now."

    Speaking to Al Jazeera English moments ago, Hossam El-Hamalawy, a blogger and activist, suggested that the military could be divided. He said that the fact units of the presidential guard, not the regular army, are now reportedly guarding state television and the presidential palace could be an indication of an internal split.

    Mr. El-Hamalawy also said that Mr. Mubarak's speech could turn out to be a big favor to the protesters, by making it clear that he is not listening to them.
    a lot of people (none / 0) (#113)
    by Capt Howdy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 05:10:23 PM EST
    are saying that.  

    Parent
    Army (none / 0) (#114)
    by star on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 05:16:18 PM EST
    Historically army in various countries have initiated coups - peaceful and bloody and they do not revert back to democracy very easily. I would be a bit worried if army were to take complete control. There is very little hope for elections taking place anytime soon with army in power.

    Parent
    not sure thats true here (none / 0) (#116)
    by Capt Howdy on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 05:26:43 PM EST
    it seemed to be what most of the protesters wanted all along.

    Parent
    Not really (5.00 / 2) (#120)
    by star on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 05:36:08 PM EST
    People want the right to pick their leaders. in the interim, they might settle for army takeover as an interim measure.
    Only army by nature does not give up power once they have it(with out any any authority to restrain them) and will use all the resources and all the aid they get for arms hoarding. that is simply the nature of the beast. Since these poor people have known nothing but Mubarak for so long, they prefer anybody BUT him. I am not sure that will bode well for them long term. But we have to wait and see. Nobody really knows where this is all going to end up .

    Parent
    Don't think this is issue of military takeover (none / 0) (#131)
    by BackFromOhio on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 08:31:04 PM EST
    Instead, the issue is will the rank & file of the army fight their fellow countrymen, i.e., the protesters if asked to do so by current leaders, or will they instead ally themselves and their power with the protesters?  This has nothing to do with military takeover.  The generals who are reported to be siding with M & S couldn't take over unless their troops rally behind them; what the troops would do seems unclear. If the current government thought the army would support it, why were police and thugs used last week to beat up protesters?


    Parent
    In speaking today with a good friend (5.00 / 1) (#142)
    by christinep on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 11:41:22 PM EST
    from Egypt, an individual who lives there a few months per year (and whose extended family has always resided in Cairo), I asked specifically about the loyalty between the army and the people. He affirmed the loyalty, and emphasized that approx. 60% of the army stems from regular people, the people in the streets and in the square. He said: "If you shoot at them, you could hit your brother."  

    As to potential rifts: He did not venture into whether a split between rank & file and brass would actually occur; but, he did talk about well-known personality/power rifts in the army. For example, he observed that the relationship between Suleiman and the other top army general Tantawi (sp?) is quite acrimonious. A thought: If that is accurate, then correspondent Richard Engel's (NBC) allusion today to a possible rift in the army might have a basis.

    Military coups don't usually lead to democracies without other intervention. Yet, the tradition of army & people in Egypt may be sui generis. Also: My friend indicated that the preference that many now have for the military temporarily in charge may reflect a negative reaction to possible muslim brotherhood resurgence there without the strength of military leadership. (He repeated that latter concern.)

    Parent

    Nobody knows what the army is going to do (none / 0) (#117)
    by jbindc on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 05:27:53 PM EST
    This is a critical time

    Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had made seven calls to their counterparts in the past two weeks and were told that under almost any circumstances "the military would not fire on the people," officials told Miklaszewski.

    But "as of now, we don't have any idea what the military might do," one of the officials said this evening.



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    CNBC has report online (none / 0) (#132)
    by BackFromOhio on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 08:40:20 PM EST
    that military seems to be siding with the protesters.  Other reports I read online indicate that there are millions in the square, and that the Egyptians are furious over Mubarket's speech and refusal to take the protesters seriously.

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    Nope (none / 0) (#148)
    by jbindc on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 08:04:03 AM EST
    They are sticking with Mubarak and his transition plan - for now.

    Of course, we also don't know if the military is monolithic in its views - the low level grunts seem to be with the protestors, but it's the opinions of the guys who control the arms that matter.

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    odd (none / 0) (#151)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 08:40:27 AM EST
    how people keep paying attention to this.  I thought you said we would all get bored with it.

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    Odd (none / 0) (#152)
    by jbindc on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 08:50:39 AM EST
    How you put a timelime on me when I didn't myself.  What I said was that these protests couldn't be sustained until the elections.

    And guess what?  While there are still many engaged in Egypt, many more have returned to their lives. There will be a bump in numbers today, since the anger is refueled, but these protests will peter out.

    I give it a couple more weeks until the army turns on them and makes them disperse.

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    first (none / 0) (#153)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 09:07:04 AM EST
    there will be no petering out.

    second the army will not turn on them.

    third they will stay there until change comes.  it may get ugly but there is no going back now.  the "message" from the army being touted this morning by US media as "backing Mubarak" isnt.
    or if it is on any level its the high level guys sitting at the big round table and not the guys in the streets who are in the tanks.  I do not believe they will obey orders to disperse them.  and if some do I think there will be many deserters and defections.


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    Of course many more (none / 0) (#159)
    by sj on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 09:43:28 AM EST
    "have returned to their lives".  In the meantime the protesters have now been joined by thousands of striking workers and trade unions.

    And I suspect there will be some cycling in and out of thousands of participants.  

    I don't know how long they can keep it up.  I am in total awe of how long it has already lasted.  That speaks volumes for the level of dedication, intention and determination in play.  Tianenman Square lasted 7 weeks and was finally shut down by the tanks and army that came rolling in.  

    The military in Egypt appears to have a different sort of relationship with the populace here.  I make no predictions at all.  I watch with awe, anxiety, interest, trepidation and great hope as well as great fear.  Because the people of Egypt will have to do it on their own.  They will get/are getting no help from the International community (governments) -- and that includes the US.

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    I think it's too soon to make (none / 0) (#160)
    by Anne on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 09:52:04 AM EST
    predictions more than six months out - or even six days out - things are too fluid at the moment, and too much depends on the course of events.  I don't think you can ever count on people who are tasting freedom to walk away from the movement they believe will be responsible for attaining it on a more permanent basis; if anything, I would expect the protests to grow, as more people see that they can make their voices heard.

    And I think we are seeing and hearing this from the people in the street - that they are not leaving until their demands are met, and that it will take more than just rhetoric to convince them.  

    Why, when they may be so close to making progress, would they walk away?  Because of threats of force?  When you've lived with the boot of dictatorship on your neck for decades, how scary could that be?

    I keep thinking of the immortal - and iconic - words of Janis Joplin: "freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose," and feel that that may be exactly where the people of Egypt are, and they have no intention of letting go of this opportunity.

    Finally, I guess I don't understand where you are coming from with your predictions of the certainty of what would amount to failure of the uprising and success of the regime; are you trying to temper the enthusiasm for the success of public protest?  Is it supposed to keep us from getting too caught up in the events?

    Whatever it is, there's a time and a place for that kind of negativity, and in my opinion, this is neither; whether you may be proved right or not, the constant throwing of cold water on what is truly an historic and inspiring event just seems out of place.

    Parent

    "makes them disperse" (none / 0) (#169)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 10:26:32 AM EST
    I assume you will revise and extend those remarks.

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    Agreed. (none / 0) (#118)
    by Towanda on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 05:31:51 PM EST
    The army waffled for a while last week.  Since those days of violence, all of this has been all too predictable.

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    From the protesters point of view (none / 0) (#133)
    by BackFromOhio on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 08:41:45 PM EST
    it may be good that the army did not immediately step in, i.e., last week to support them.  Had the army done so, many would be criticizing the protesters for not giving the government the opportunity to address the issues raised by the protesters.

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    The dead would not agree (none / 0) (#135)
    by Towanda on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 08:50:25 PM EST
    who died in the protests last week.

    Your series of posts here are intriguing -- that you think that there will not be a military takeover.  Of course not.  For that to happen, the country would have to not be in the hands of the military now, as it has been for six decades.  (Mubarak is military; Suleiman is military; etc.)

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    My comments (none / 0) (#136)
    by BackFromOhio on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 09:01:36 PM EST
    about military takeover were largely in response to others' posts to the effect there would be such a takeover.  

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    Pres O's statement tonight in part (none / 0) (#134)
    by BackFromOhio on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 08:49:16 PM EST
    The Egyptian people have been told that there was a transition of authority, but it is not yet clear that this transition is immediate, meaningful or sufficient. Too many Egyptians remain unconvinced that the government is serious about a genuine transition to democracy, and it is the responsibility of the government to speak clearly to the Egyptian people and the world," he said in a statement. "The Egyptian government must put forward a credible, concrete and unequivocal path toward genuine democracy, and they have not yet seized that opportunity."

    Not bad...
    (from CNN.com parker/spitzer)

    Sounds like it could have been (none / 0) (#137)
    by Anne on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 09:47:10 PM EST
    read by Brian Williams on the NBC Nightly News as the lead-in to a news report...

    I rather think it is the Egyptian people who will be seizing the opportunity from an Egyptian government that has always had the opportunity to bring democratic reform to Egypt, but chose not to.

    Obama, of all people, should know by now that words alone are never enough to convince people of anything, no matter how clear those words are, but then again, Obama is the president who thinks everything boils down to saying the right thing.

    Mubarak likely has enough support from his fellow dictators that he feels comfortable flipping off the US, and frankly, I think Obama is too much of a lightweight to go toe-to-toe with him - and win.

    Parent

    You (5.00 / 1) (#139)
    by CoralGables on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 10:23:53 PM EST
    would prefer the Bush approach?

    Parent
    Like there are only two options? (5.00 / 1) (#143)
    by sj on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 12:09:20 AM EST


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    The truth of the matter is that I don't (none / 0) (#147)
    by Anne on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 07:08:51 AM EST
    find Obama to have any credibility in speaking about the attainment of, preservation of, or adherence to, the principles of democracy, and so I tend to react to what he says with, "yeah, you gotta lotta room to talk."

    Mubarak is the dictator with whom our government partnered to rendition and torture those we deemed "terrorists," and Suleiman was our point man in this effort.

    Someone is going to have to explain to me how supporting Suleiman is in the interests of the Egyptian people whom Obama waxes so eloquent about, because I just don't get it.

    Now, maybe this is 11-dimensional foreign policy and diplomacy where our public face is in support of Suleiman while our people are working behind the scenes with those who truly have a commitment to democratic reform in Egypt, but I don't think that's what's going on.

    Would I prefer the Bush approach?  What would that be, exactly?  Send in the troops to "help?"

    No, I don't want American troops there.

    What I would like is an American government that doesn't just talk the talk on democracy, but walks the walk - and we haven't been doing that for quite some time - and Obama certainly has done little to change the course Bush/Cheney set in the eight years they were in office.

    It's not too late for Obama to do that, but the problem is, I don't think that's his goal; our government has been steadily weakening the power of its people, which reduces the stirring rhetoric Obama always falls back on to "just words."

    Parent

    the people in the region (none / 0) (#154)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 09:11:16 AM EST
    would I think disagree.  the final statement yesterday was, by historic US standards, pretty radical.  they have clearly thrown in with the people.  it was a statement no republican would ever have made.

    there is absolutely no upside to Obama going any further in his rhetoric.  it would only give Mubarak a boogy man and reinforce his position.  and it would turn the peoples revolution into an american backed mob of instigators.

     

    Parent

    also (none / 0) (#155)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 09:14:16 AM EST
    Obamas Cairo speech, which will in retrospect be seen as where this started, was just words.

    words are powerful things.  which why Mubarak tries to strangle the press.  and why Iran is reported to have jammed access to western media and some internet sites and is arresting resistance leaders in advance of the planned demonstration of support in Iran on monday.


    Parent

    Spin (5.00 / 1) (#157)
    by star on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 09:20:47 AM EST
    That is some spin Capt.. O in Cairo was all praise for Mubarak. There was no evidence of any protest or call for it from Obama there. so to somehow give him credit for the perseverance of people in the streets of Egypt is really too much of a stretch.

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    Indeed. (5.00 / 1) (#166)
    by ks on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 10:18:15 AM EST
    The notion that Obama's Cario speech "started all this..." is patently absurd

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    makes you crazy (none / 0) (#167)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 10:22:45 AM EST
    doesnt it.

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    No (none / 0) (#175)
    by ks on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 10:37:09 AM EST
    Not at all.  But hey, I guess saying nice words about "democracy" while you are sending people to be tortured by the regime you're criticizing was the start of something....yeah....

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    not "spin" (none / 0) (#161)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 09:57:30 AM EST
    The fourth issue that I will address is democracy.

    I know there has been controversy about the promotion of democracy in recent years, and much of this controversy is connected to the war in Iraq. So let me be clear: no system of government can or should be imposed upon one nation by any other.

    That does not lessen my commitment, however, to governments that reflect the will of the people. Each nation gives life to this principle in its own way, grounded in the traditions of its own people. America does not presume to know what is best for everyone, just as we would not presume to pick the outcome of a peaceful election. But I do have an unyielding belief that all people yearn for certain things: the ability to speak your mind and have a say in how you are governed; confidence in the rule of law and the equal administration of justice; government that is transparent and doesn't steal from the people; the freedom to live as you choose. Those are not just American ideas, they are human rights, and that is why we will support them everywhere.

    There is no straight line to realize this promise. But this much is clear: governments that protect these rights are ultimately more stable, successful and secure. Suppressing ideas never succeeds in making them go away. America respects the right of all peaceful and law-abiding voices to be heard around the world, even if we disagree with them. And we will welcome all elected, peaceful governments - provided they govern with respect for all their people.

    This last point is important because there are some who advocate for democracy only when they are out of power; once in power, they are ruthless in suppressing the rights of others. No matter where it takes hold, government of the people and by the people sets a single standard for all who hold power: you must maintain your power through consent, not coercion; you must respect the rights of minorities, and participate with a spirit of tolerance and compromise; you must place the interests of your people and the legitimate workings of the political process above your party. Without these ingredients, elections alone do not make true democracy.



    Parent
    And my point, about which I was clear, (5.00 / 1) (#165)
    by Anne on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 10:17:11 AM EST
     is that while these words may be inspiring to some, they are delivered by a president who has not adhered to those principles in this country, and that is why his words ring hollow for me: his actions here, in the good ol' USA, do not comport with them.

    That does not lessen my commitment, however, to governments that reflect the will of the people. Each nation gives life to this principle in its own way, grounded in the traditions of its own people. America does not presume to know what is best for everyone, just as we would not presume to pick the outcome of a peaceful election. But I do have an unyielding belief that all people yearn for certain things: the ability to speak your mind and have a say in how you are governed; confidence in the rule of law and the equal administration of justice; government that is transparent and doesn't steal from the people; the freedom to live as you choose. Those are not just American ideas, they are human rights, and that is why we will support them everywhere.

    I just cannot, no matter how hard I try, see this as anything other than grossly hypocritical in light of what is happening in this country.  The ability to speak one's mind is an increasingly risky thing.  Having a say in how we are governed, as we are held captive to the interest of corporate America?  Confidence in the rule of law, as we see spirited defense of some of the worst of the Bush/Cheney polices that undermined that?  A government that is transparent and doesn't steal from the people?  Seriously?  We have less transparency that ever, and about all the government has done - and continues to do - is steal from the people who have the least, to ensure that those who have the most get more.

    All of these things used to be American ideas and ideals, but those have taken a beating and Obama has been one of the ones holding the club.  Human rights?  Come on.

    There is no straight line to realize this promise. But this much is clear: governments that protect these rights are ultimately more stable, successful and secure. Suppressing ideas never succeeds in making them go away. America respects the right of all peaceful and law-abiding voices to be heard around the world, even if we disagree with them. And we will welcome all elected, peaceful governments - provided they govern with respect for all their people.

    Tell me how Obama is seeing to the protection of these rights in this country, please.  Tell me how Obama is seeing to the full expression of ideas - I'm all ears.

    This last point is important because there are some who advocate for democracy only when they are out of power; once in power, they are ruthless in suppressing the rights of others. No matter where it takes hold, government of the people and by the people sets a single standard for all who hold power: you must maintain your power through consent, not coercion; you must respect the rights of minorities, and participate with a spirit of tolerance and compromise; you must place the interests of your people and the legitimate workings of the political process above your party. Without these ingredients, elections alone do not make true democracy.

    Utter baloney.

    That is my point - not that Obama shouldn't say anything to the Egyptians, but that what he is saying rings hollow and hypocritical.

    Now, I see that Mubarak has resigned, credit for which I hope is given to the people who deserve it: the Egyptian people, and not the efforts of an American president who has much work to do in his own country to restore the luster to our democracy.

    Parent

    Exactly (none / 0) (#158)
    by Lacey on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 09:20:50 AM EST
    For an American president to side with the people in a Middle Eastern country is a diplomatic earthquake. It has basically reversed 70 years of American foreign policy. And other leaders in the region have likely noticed. Of course, for Anne nothing Obama does is enough.

    Parent
    So true (5.00 / 1) (#149)
    by star on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 08:23:59 AM EST
    He does sound like a news caster. Is this how a President speaks? that too on 18th day of protest , when people there are almost at a tipping point? Say nothing, if you have nothing concrete to say. at least maintain your credibility. O needs to quit lofty rhetoric when Egypt is burning. EL Baredi' article on the other hand is a good read.

    Parent
    In diplomacy... (5.00 / 1) (#156)
    by Lacey on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 09:17:26 AM EST
    Everything boils down to saying the right thing. His words carry weight and will be parsed by leaders across the region. He has to tread carefully. But that doesn't matter to you. After all, Obama could say the earth orbits the sun and you would criticize him because he didn't mention the moon or the other planets in the solar system. Tide goes in, tide goes out, OR, Obama speaks, Anne criticizes.  

    Parent
    Amazing spirit (none / 0) (#193)
    by lilburro on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 11:13:15 AM EST
    amazing achievement...the international tradition of non-violent protest triumphs again!

    al jazzera just refferred to Suleiman (none / 0) (#196)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 11:26:49 AM EST
    as the "former vice president"

    And reported direct military rule (none / 0) (#197)
    by Towanda on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 11:33:34 AM EST
    now, rather than indirectly as before for decades now.  And that this is what the U.S. wants.  I have to say that, from how the U.S. has handled this, that may be worrisome . . . as is the new talk now of elections not for a year now instead of in six months.

    Parent
    the army has (5.00 / 2) (#199)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 11:36:26 AM EST
    been amazing through all of this.  they deserve a large part of the credit for the outcome.  I wouldnt worry.

    and honestly, I dont think anyone is all that concerned what the US wants.

    Parent

    Yeah, I heard that too. (5.00 / 1) (#202)
    by ks on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 11:46:48 AM EST
    And have the same take as you.  Your indirect control point is very accurate and has been largely overlooked in the usual reporting. Mubark, Sulieman, etc. are of the military.  They just wear suits instead of uniforms.  Now, the uniform guys are moving in.  The best I would hope for would be a Turkey type situation/transition.  

    Parent
    the statement from Obama (none / 0) (#201)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 11:43:14 AM EST
    NOW is going to be interesting.
    Mubarak Ready to Go, Will Address Nation Today | 201 comments (201 topical)