Oscar Odds

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Events
Posted on Sun Feb 27, 2011 at 10:46:27 AM EST
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83rd Academy Awards - Odds to Win Best Picture

The King's Speech (-450)
The Social Network (+350)
Field (+900)

83rd Academy Awards - Odds to Win Best Director

Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan (+1600)
David Fincher - The Social Network (-170)
David O. Russell - The Fighter (+6600)
Joel and Ethan Coen - True Grit (+4000)
Tom Hooper - The Kings Speech (+140)

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King's Speech will be biggest winner overall IMO (none / 0) (#1)
by Saul on Sun Feb 27, 2011 at 11:24:14 AM EST

The odds talk is all greek to me (none / 0) (#2)
by andgarden on Sun Feb 27, 2011 at 11:25:19 AM EST

I also haven't seen most of these movies. I enjoyed True Grit though--surprisingly, because I don't tend to enjoy westerns.

: I remember as a youngster (none / 0) (#8)
by brodie on Sun Feb 27, 2011 at 12:14:04 PM EST

seeing the original Duke Wayne-Kim Darby True Grit film when it first came out in 1969. Quite a visual feast on the big screen -- looked like the Sierras in the spring -- and all the action and plot and acting was strictly secondary. You always knew, since this was a John Wayne movie, that things would turn out okay both for him and the charming young Kim Darby character.
I think it wasn't until a few years later that Wayne was in a pic where his character gets killed (The Cowboys???).

: I was also surprised at how much I liked it (none / 0) (#18)
by ruffian on Sun Feb 27, 2011 at 06:01:35 PM EST

I'd be happy to see the Coens win for direction.

I liked (none / 0) (#3)
by Jeralyn on Sun Feb 27, 2011 at 11:33:07 AM EST

Winter's Bone the best. Social Network was good in that I thought about it afterwards. I haven't seen King's Speech or Black Swan, since they aren't available yet on OnDemand or Streaming.

Last night I watched Karate Kid III and actually liked it (although I couldn't stand the character of the kk's mother, she was really obnoxious and a caricature.)

I'm mostly waiting for the Red Carpet. The awards show itself gets worse every year and I doubt James Franco and Anne Hathaway will add anything to make it better.

I don't have an opinion (none / 0) (#4)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Feb 27, 2011 at 11:35:42 AM EST

on who should win and I have not watched the show since forever.

But the odds intrigue me.

One last thought - does Jeff Bridges have any chance? Yes he won last year, but 25-1 is good odds.


agreed (none / 0) (#5)
by Capt Howdy on Sun Feb 27, 2011 at 12:02:48 PM EST

I would love it if this girl won

Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone

I also have hopes that Pixar will not win by default again and some members actually watched the Illusionist.


I'm rooting for Firth (none / 0) (#9)
by brodie on Sun Feb 27, 2011 at 12:29:50 PM EST

both because it looks like a good enough performance, but also because as per his interview with Piers Morgan he seems like a decent chap with a fine self-deprecating sense of humor.

Plus another good actor, Jeff Bridges, won just last year, and I'm not sure if his TG character isn't just a slight riff on the gruff Duke Wayne version.

As for the red carpet, it's been unseasonably cold on the west coast in recent days, and in L.A. I see that it's about 15º or more below normal -- weather tops out in the 50s, so should be even colder by late aft.

So, how long will these brave, lovely women be able to bare so much skin in their expensive gowns before they succumb to the elements?


Social Network was vg but (none / 0) (#11)
by byteb on Sun Feb 27, 2011 at 02:10:37 PM EST

the King's Speech was outstanding.


: btw, Annette Benning was so good (none / 0) (#13)
by byteb on Sun Feb 27, 2011 at 02:17:55 PM EST

in The Kids are All Right(another wonderful movie). I know she doesn't have much of a chance to win but I'm rooting for her.

My daughter is coming by for (none / 0) (#12)
by byteb on Sun Feb 27, 2011 at 02:13:03 PM EST

the Red Carpet and some take-out. I do love to see who wears what.


Winter's Bone (none / 0) (#14)
by Madeline on Sun Feb 27, 2011 at 03:15:49 PM EST

I liked this movie also. I thought it was done so well with so few main characters. Very creative.

I did like The King's Speech also.I like watching Colin Firth.


Odds any winner will say, (none / 0) (#6)
by oculus on Sun Feb 27, 2011 at 12:04:11 PM EST

you like me. you really really like me.

Opting for Gergiev/LSO/Mahler part 3. Sob. Do hope Mike Leigh, G. Rush, and Colin Firth win.

As usual, I have (none / 0) (#7)
by brodie on Sun Feb 27, 2011 at 12:08:46 PM EST

a strong interest in seeing whether this year's designated singer will mess up the lyrics to our National Anthem.

This was a good year for non-Blockbusters. (none / 0) (#10)
by EL seattle on Sun Feb 27, 2011 at 01:31:22 PM EST

The Black Swan and The King's Speech have both made more than $100 million stateside, and The Fighter and the Social Network are almost at that level. None of these films are animated, none of them are in 3-D, and none have some sort of gimmick to boost their success. Even True Grit is pretty modest as Hollywood hits go. There was no shortage of excellent performances and strong contenders in any category this year. I think that this is a good thing.

My pick (for the winner of) the Best Picture award: Toy Story 3. And so it goes.

Best Supporting Actor (none / 0) (#16)
by Ben Hussey on Sun Feb 27, 2011 at 05:51:52 PM EST

Jeremy Renner should win this award hands-down .
Most people are not aware of how desperate, characters in his position are. He expressed how it feels to not do anymore time and to always have to strike back at authority. Granted, these are not desirable qualities but they were part of the script and he made those parts extremely real .
That's what an actor is supposed to do .

I like young Hailey Steinfeld on the red carpet (none / 0) (#17)
by ruffian on Sun Feb 27, 2011 at 05:58:31 PM EST

Very pretty- such a change from her True Grit costume.

I think the odds are probably right as far as predictions. My favorite was Winters Bone. I'd love to see that actress win. I haven't seen Black Sawn though, so maybe Portman does deserve it.

Hey, here's G Rush on the red carpet. He's looking a little tired. I've never seen someone in person one day and at the Oscars the next!

I love Colin Firth since his Mr Darcy 'sexy pants' days and he was perfect in The Kings Speech, so I will be happy to see him win.

: How was the play? (none / 0) (#19)
by byteb on Sun Feb 27, 2011 at 06:17:06 PM EST

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