The Debt Ceiling Battle Was Lost Last December
Yesterday, Jonathan Bernstein wrote a post titled The context of liberal surrender and Barack Obama’s choices:
It was never at all plausible after November 2, 2010 that Obama and the Democrats could get through this year and next without losing on several fronts compared to what they had in the very liberal 111th Congress. And yet liberals seemed to believe that if only Obama negotiated properly he could avoid those losses. It just wasn’t going to happen. So the proper way to see the current negotiations are in the context of watching both sides surrender.
I'm not seeing how agreeing to an all spending cuts deal constitutes surrender by the Republicans. Will it be all they asked for? No. But being effective negotiators, Republicans knew to ask for pie in the sky, and then just settle for pie on the ground. They can get the sky on the next go around.
But the more interesting aspect to Bernstein's analysis is his failure to connect the December deal to extend the Bush tax cuts to the current debt ceiling deal (and the coming budget negotiations.) When the President surrendered on the Bush tax cuts, he lost almost all of his bargaining leverage. (Indeed, the only leverage Democrats have now is that a substantial number of Republicans do not want to vote for a debt ceiling increase under any circumstances, thus Dem votes will be required.) When some of us were explaining this in December, others were arguing The December Deal was a victory. Here is a post where I discuss Yglesias making that claim:
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