The White House should announce that it won’t extend any of the Bush tax cuts and will instead insist on a Gang-of-Six-esque plan that cleans the code, lowers rates for everyone, and raises $2 trillion or more in revenue. If the GOP refuses, the tax cuts will expire, our revenue problems will be solved, and Republicans will suddenly find themselves much more interested in tax reform. Sometimes, to govern like a Democrat — or even just to govern responsibly — you need to negotiate like a Republican.
I'm leery of "tax reform" myself (the reform always gets taken out later) but I agree on the need for this type of negotiating strategy.
A few weeks ago I wrote about Seeking Maximum Leverage In Political Bargaining:
You want to negotiate a deal when your bargaining leverage is at its maximum, not at its minimum. This is basic bargaining. It amazes me how few people understand this point. In 1995, Bill Clinton searched for moments of maximum leverage to bargain with the Republicans. Luckily for Clinton, the GOP never played the debt ceiling card on him. But Obama should have known the GOP would with him. A good bargainer would have known not to give up his best chip (tax cuts) without making the other side take theirs (the debt ceiling) off the table.
Ezra writes:
Democrats will have exactly one chance to overcome the GOP’s resistance to tax revenue. Next year, the Bush tax cuts expire. If Congress does nothing, we revert to Clinton-era tax rates for everyone, and the federal coffers fill with $3.6 trillion in additional revenue over the next 10 years — enough to stabilize deficits. This is a rare opportunity in which it’s Democrats who hold the hostage and Republicans who have to compromise.
But tell this to the folks at the White House, and they’ll say that this is like pointing a gun at their own head and threatening to pull the trigger. Raising taxes on anyone but the rich is unpopular, and a large tax increase is not what the economy needs right now. They’re right on both counts. But in this case, two rights make the wrong policy.
The right policy is to act now and insist on tax reform rather than some variation in, or even expiration of, the Bush tax cuts. Tax reform doesn’t have to raise taxes right this second, and could lower taxes on many people even as it raised revenue overall. And if Republicans say no? Well, that’s on them.
(Emphasis supplied.) Ezra has two rights that add up to a wrong there. Now is not the moment of maximum leverage for Dems on taxes. Frankly it won't come until after the 2012 election.
Moreover, the maximum POLITICAL advantage comes for Dems who propose extending tax cuts for ordinary Americans and saving Social Security and Medicare by raising taxes on the wealthy.there will be no short term deal that will be advantageous politically to Dems. The political advantage comes from having the GOP defend the rich at the expense of everyone else.
None of this is in Obama's political DNA, but it is so clearly the right call that I hope someone convinces him to adopt this approach.
Speaking for me only