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Newt Gingrich Wins South Carolina Primary

Update: Newt Gingrich wins.

South Carolina exit polling numbers won't be released until the polls close. But everything else about them is being published, including that many voters decided whom to vote for in the last week and that the debates mattered, which bodes well for Newt Gingrich.

CBS says here's what to watch for. The Washington Post has this guide, essentially a county comparison according to 2008 results. Here are the 2008 Republican SC primary results, and the 2008 exit poll. [ more...]

Google reports a huge surge this week in search engine traffic for Newt -- but its mostly related to his wives:

The top four search terms for Gingrich: Callista (his current wife), Marianne, Newt scandal, and Newt wives.

The top four search terms for Mitt Romney, meanwhile: Bio, Mitt South Carolina, 2012, Mitt Platform.

I wonder who many of the searches emanated from IP addresses in South Carolina.

The New York Times says voters didn't have much of a reaction to attacks on Romney's Bain Capital:

About two-thirds of South Carolina primary voters said they had a generally positive view of Mr. Romney's background of investing in and restructuring companies, according to early exit poll results.

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  • Display: Sort:
    I think the Republicans have completely lost (5.00 / 2) (#3)
    by byteb on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 05:52:33 PM EST
    their minds.

    they had minds? (5.00 / 5) (#8)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 06:10:55 PM EST
    who knew

    Parent
    Vestigial organs in their case (5.00 / 4) (#70)
    by ruffian on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:46:58 PM EST
    The funny (5.00 / 2) (#21)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 06:51:34 PM EST
    thing is that SC was set up to prevent exactly this kind of thing because there were so many baa baa conservatives who did what they were told. Putting SC in this order was Atwater's baby and now Atwater's baby has blown up all over the GOP. Baa waa waa.

    Maybe the GOP better figure out a way to take a lot of power out of the hands of SC if they don't want a lunatic to win the nomination.

    Parent

    what about the fact (none / 0) (#24)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 06:54:17 PM EST
    they have voted for the establishment candidate every time since Reagan?

    Parent
    Yep (5.00 / 1) (#27)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 06:56:13 PM EST
    that's the point I have been making. They have been doing what they've been told to do for literally years. I just see this as the GOP coalition collapsing. I mean it's been going on for about 20 years but it's finally out there for everybody to see.

    Parent
    I honestly think its more (none / 0) (#31)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 06:59:11 PM EST
    about Romney.  

    Parent
    When will the republican leadership (none / 0) (#43)
    by loveed on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:14:38 PM EST
    get it. The party don't like Mitt. The party rather lose with Newt, than Romney.
     What amazed me Newt won big with married women.

    Parent
    Because (none / 0) (#46)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:18:51 PM EST
    SC is full of religious and regional bigots who won't vote for someone outside of the south and someone who isn't a WASP even though Newt is "technically Catholic".

    Parent
    replace SC with south (5.00 / 2) (#56)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:29:01 PM EST
    and understand that the republican party is mostly a southern party and you begin to understand

    Parent
    the one that I talk to (none / 0) (#71)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:47:51 PM EST
    honestly dont have much of a problem with catholics.
    they really dont that is so 1963.  I have asked that question.  but they do not feel that way about all denominations.

    Parent
    Yeah, strange (none / 0) (#99)
    by gyrfalcon on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 09:34:30 PM EST
    but from a couple interviews I saw with some of those women, it seems to have been a sympathy vote-- they saw him as the victim of mean old media in the person of John King.  Stupid reason to vote for somebody, but there it is.


    Parent
    Anecdotally..I saw a women who was a Gingrich (none / 0) (#146)
    by DFLer on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 08:35:27 AM EST
    supporter who had no idea of his: 3 marriages; and the fact that he had a long (adulterous) affair with his current wife. When she heard that from the interviewer, it gave her pause...(but not enough paws!)

    Parent
    For the South Carolina all white primary, (none / 0) (#136)
    by bison on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 01:42:41 AM EST
    Racial animist trumped gender abuse.

    Parent
    Animus, I think is a good possibility (none / 0) (#149)
    by Peter G on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 10:54:23 AM EST
    ... not "animist"!

    Parent
    Mitt's Super Pac (5.00 / 1) (#7)
    by CoralGables on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 06:10:17 PM EST
    is now running anti-Santorum ads in Florida. He's now in full attack mode against everyone.

    I will eat my crow happily (5.00 / 4) (#33)
    by andgarden on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:02:30 PM EST
    (I said this race was over).

    "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."

    This is the most volatile (5.00 / 2) (#102)
    by gyrfalcon on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 09:47:41 PM EST
    time in my lifetime among the Republicans.  There are so many chickens coming home to roost, the noise is deafening.

    Among other things, the GOP voters, who've been convinced of all sorts of lunacy by Fox, Rush Limbaugh, et al, are shocked to discover that the only pols willing to run for president on those "facts" are unbearable scoundrels of one sort or another.  So they rush from one to the next on the basis of a good debate riposte or a hard-hitting super-PAC ad, only to discover a week or so later the guy's a scumbag or a moron anyway.

    I feel for them.  I really do.  They've been sold a gigantic bill of goods, and now they don't know what the heck to do.

    What's amazing is how convinced they seem to be that everybody in the country agrees with them.  Reminds me of that famous Pauline Kael remark about not understanding how Nixon won because "Nobody I know voted for him."

    Parent

    Yet, everybody voted for Nixon. (none / 0) (#137)
    by bison on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 01:46:27 AM EST
    and they will vote for Newt.

    Parent
    Another version of same thing (5.00 / 1) (#107)
    by cal1942 on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 09:52:29 PM EST
    'Never stop your enemy while he's hanging himself'

    But my favorite related expression and one Democrats should live by:

    'When your opponent is drowning, throw him an anchor'

    Parent

    what a reversal of fortune (none / 0) (#44)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:15:48 PM EST
    in, what, 48 hours?  Mr 3 and 0 becomes Mr 1 and 2 with 1 being his home state.

    Parent
    Hard to imagine Newt (5.00 / 1) (#35)
    by brodie on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:03:22 PM EST
    winning the nom given his checkered background and very high unfavorables among the public, but I'm pulling for him since he would be eminently beatable in the fall.  And yes, I am being careful about what I wish for.

    It's also hard to imagine Romney winning the nom if he continues to bumble and stumble as he did the past week.

    Amusing and entertaining situation developing among the Rs and suddenly Obama looks to be a two termer -- this week anyway.

    If Newt wins Florida (none / 0) (#86)
    by MKS on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 08:39:52 PM EST
    watch the Republican Establishment drag Jeb into the race.

    Romney still gets the nominiation, though.  Too much money.....

    Parent

    Hell will freeze over (5.00 / 2) (#106)
    by gyrfalcon on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 09:51:39 PM EST
    before somebody named Bush wins the 2012 election.  I say bring him on.  (And I honestly don't think he's far enough to the right for the mood of the GOPers these days.)

    Parent
    Jeb doesn't want it (none / 0) (#122)
    by MKS on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 10:26:56 PM EST
    I have seen some trial heat polling that shows Jeb doing worse than Romney against Obama.....

    Too soon for Jeb....

    Parent

    see comment #85 (none / 0) (#87)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 08:43:19 PM EST
    below

    yeah I just heard a repbulican talking head say that if he won FL there would be a republican freak out beyond his ability to articulate.

    Parent

    That's because the talking heads almost all ... (none / 0) (#125)
    by cymro on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 10:46:18 PM EST
    ... channel DC beltway opinions. I'm always amazed at how out of touch they are with the voters, so mach so that they spend way too much time incessantly debating topics like "how could this have possibly happened" and "what on earth will happen next". Not exactly riveting TV, is it?

    Parent
    If New runs in the fall (none / 0) (#138)
    by bison on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 01:50:48 AM EST
    and does not win, there might be riots in the streets.  Newt race baits and stirs up meanness in voters.  His supporters have a distrust of institutions and will not accept that he lost fair and square.

    Parent
    People, people, people (5.00 / 1) (#76)
    by Zorba on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 08:05:06 PM EST
    Before you all lose your minds over Newt winning the South Carolina Primary, be aware that South Carolina has an "open primary."  That means that any registered voter, Republican or Democrat, can vote wherever.  Now think about it.  If you were a Democrat in South Carolina (yes, yes, I know that there are not exactly an enormous number of you, but there are more than a few), what would you do?  Stay home, or go vote for the Republican who is most likely to blow up the Republican Party?  I'm just sayin'....

    still (none / 0) (#79)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 08:12:12 PM EST
    in with a substantial win.  big double digits.  big mo.  he is much better with hispanics than Romney. at times over the last few months he has been as much as 35 points up in FL.

    I also just heard that his superpac has said he will have at least 10 mill to spend.  besides the flood of free media.

    those are the pros.  at least one con is that many votes have already been cast there.

    one thing is sure.  even if he doesnt win he will go on.

    Parent

    Not many (none / 0) (#81)
    by CoralGables on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 08:18:59 PM EST
    Early voting started today in Florida.

    Parent
    I heard (none / 0) (#82)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 08:21:12 PM EST
    there was thousands of absentees?

    Parent
    Florida (none / 0) (#84)
    by CoralGables on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 08:32:30 PM EST
    is the absentee state lol

    Parent
    No indication from exit (none / 0) (#109)
    by gyrfalcon on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 09:54:37 PM EST
    polls that this was a significant factor

    Parent
    A rising Newt lifts all jokes (5.00 / 5) (#78)
    by Dadler on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 08:10:20 PM EST
    Seriously, that this sociopath of a clown, this pinched and puckered pudge of a punchline, that he could win even the primary in ANY state not blanketed by a thick cloud of extra-strength laughing gas, well, I guess that proves one thing: in America, literally, ANYthing is possible.

    Race baiting will work every time; (none / 0) (#139)
    by bison on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 01:51:55 AM EST
    ask Jesse Helms!

    Parent
    Fitting, since Gingrinch LOOKS like bait (5.00 / 0) (#147)
    by Dadler on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 10:31:21 AM EST
    Like he oughtta be writhing on the end of a hook.  Guy makes the word ugly feel ashamed of itself.

    Parent
    everything on the board had moved (5.00 / 1) (#83)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 08:32:02 PM EST
    except Callistas hair.

    How DOES she do that?? (none / 0) (#111)
    by gyrfalcon on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 09:56:17 PM EST
    Is it molded plastic?

    Parent
    It's a helmet (none / 0) (#130)
    by Jeralyn on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 01:05:43 AM EST
    It's kevlar, isn't it? (none / 0) (#148)
    by Edger on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 10:33:29 AM EST
    Androids are people, (5.00 / 1) (#152)
    by desertswine on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 02:05:35 PM EST
    my friend.

    Parent
    I saw AquaNet on a drugstore shelf (none / 0) (#150)
    by Towanda on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 01:39:11 PM EST
    in a small town recently.

    I ought to have checked to see whether the label had a date of manufacture on it.

    An aunt of mine used to use the term "hair lacquer" rather than hairspray.  "Hair lacquer" is more like it, huh?  Or maybe "hair shellac"?

    Parent

    This is the year you run for state rep (5.00 / 4) (#94)
    by andgarden on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 09:18:13 PM EST
    as a Democrat in a supposedly "no hope" district.

    Newt can't really be the nominee, can he?

    Bingo (5.00 / 1) (#112)
    by gyrfalcon on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 09:57:56 PM EST
    I think Newtie is the Republican most likely to bring unenthusiastic Dems out to the polls in droves.

    But wait a week.  It all may be totally different.

    Parent

    Well that should be every cycle IMO (none / 0) (#128)
    by sj on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 11:47:26 PM EST
    There should be no such thing as an uncontested seat.

    Parent
    My congratulations (5.00 / 0) (#127)
    by CoralGables on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 10:50:08 PM EST
    to Capt Howdy who rightfully predicted a double digit Newtnami win tonight while I guessed a far less impressive 8-10 point margin.

    To those that earlier today still said Romney was winning tonight, I'll be kind and let you remain nameless on this one.

    ah shucks (none / 0) (#144)
    by Capt Howdy on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 08:09:18 AM EST
    I was just looking at the trend lines which were good for Newt and the weather which was bad for Mitt.
    honestly I am more pleased with another prediction.
    I think the most interesting and probably most consequential thing to come out of last night was the electability numbers for Romney that come out of the exit polls.  and it was just what I have been saying would happen when we went south.

    but if there is a limb I will go out on it.

    Newt wins FL.

    Parent

    "SC voters support open marriage" (5.00 / 1) (#142)
    by jeffinalabama on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 07:22:09 AM EST
    should be the headline. What else explains the sudden rapid shift?  Don't get between a married South Carolina Republican and a chance to get jiggy, either personally or by proxy.

    I'm so glad to see your comment up :) (5.00 / 1) (#143)
    by Militarytracy on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 08:00:56 AM EST
    I love you Jeff.  Even when I sometimes don't agree with you, I love you.

    Parent
    I no longer have a dog in this hunt (5.00 / 1) (#151)
    by loveed on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 01:58:01 PM EST
    Hey Jeff how are you. I think of you often with prayers and best wishes.
     A couple of threads ago I wrote about the media, and there control over picking the last 2 presidents.
     You also know I supported Huntsman. I thought he was the most qualified candidate.
     With every post I have said the repub. voters will not support Romney. He ran for president for the last 10yrs. He is a flip/flopper (remember John Kerry).
     The media & the repub. leaderships have the repub voter confused with dems. They think they will fall in line.How is that working for them?
     The repubs hate the media. Like me they think there running the country. They hate the leadership, for GWB. His big spending & two wars.
    This is why Jeb can't run.
     Newt on the other hand is a flame thrower. He loves slapping the media around. He loves proving them wrong.
     The media had anointed Romney the winner of the primary after 2 states. How many times did you hear " it's over". Romney is the only one with money and the organization. They forgot one thing, the voters.
     The repub. voter rather go down with a fighter, than a flip/flopper.
     And for you dem voters be careful of what you wish for. Newt is not afraid of being label a racist (ask Juan Williams), and Obama is a lousy debater, and the media will not be able to help him.

    Parent
    I just saw some talking head (none / 0) (#1)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 05:40:46 PM EST
    say that "republicans" tell him what would happen tonight if Newt wins is 2 things.  they end debates as soon as possible and all the money in the world is given to Romney to destroy Newt.

    it might work.  but the fact is Romney outspent Newt 2-1 in SC.  and I think if it starts to look like the "establishment" is trying to shove Romney down their throats (and guess who will make that argument) it could be just the launching pad Newt needs to rally the pitchforks.

    Will the establishment (none / 0) (#140)
    by bison on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 01:56:44 AM EST
    GOP candidate become a third party candidate?

    Parent
    For those sick pups like me (none / 0) (#2)
    by CoralGables on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 05:45:29 PM EST
    who will watch election returns about people who would never get my vote, polls close in 15 minutes and results are available:

    HERE

    I'm expecting about an 8-10 point victory for Newt. Even the nationwide Gallup Tracking Poll has Newt closing fast on Romney over the last few days.

    MSNBC is predicting Newt as SC winner. (none / 0) (#4)
    by byteb on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 06:02:02 PM EST


    it would seem that (none / 0) (#6)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 06:05:39 PM EST
    with such an early call the margin must be comfortable

    Parent
    its over (none / 0) (#5)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 06:03:03 PM EST
    now its just about how much

    Double digits? (none / 0) (#9)
    by byteb on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 06:11:08 PM EST
    heh (none / 0) (#10)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 06:17:20 PM EST
    we will see

    just heard that 15 years ago to the day Newt was censured by an overwhelming vote in the house.

    Parent

    You just now heard that? (5.00 / 1) (#12)
    by Zorba on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 06:27:04 PM EST
    Howdy, I lived through that!  How old are you, anyway, my dear?  Newt is like the phoenix- he flames out, and yet he rises again.  He may win S.C., but he has an overwhelming propensity for doing the stupid thing, shooting his mouth off, and then shooting himself in the foot (if not the face).  He can't help himself.  He won't win the Republican nomination.

    Parent
    no (none / 0) (#13)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 06:28:56 PM EST
    the point is today is the anniversary

    Parent
    Howdy, all I have to say (5.00 / 1) (#17)
    by Zorba on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 06:38:30 PM EST
    is "pass the popcorn."  We couldn't make this sh!t up, I'm telling you.   ;-)

    Parent
    aint it the truth? (5.00 / 0) (#19)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 06:40:12 PM EST
    Citizens United decision is two yrs old today too. (none / 0) (#16)
    by byteb on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 06:35:18 PM EST
    Todd just said (none / 0) (#11)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 06:21:43 PM EST
    in Romney areas - dead even
    in Newt areas - avg 20 points ahead

    Parent
    Mitt needs a test (none / 0) (#14)
    by diogenes on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 06:28:59 PM EST
    If the GOP primaries had been a cakewalk, then the first anyone would have heard of Bain and the 15% would have been in October.  Now it's old news.

    oh yeah, and Mitt looks like (5.00 / 1) (#18)
    by observed on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 06:39:13 PM EST
    he has a spine, to deal with adversity.
    Yeah, a real Lincoln is that man.

    Parent
    Continental? (5.00 / 2) (#20)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 06:41:41 PM EST
    French (none / 0) (#65)
    by Militarytracy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:42:31 PM EST
    It defines him that much earlier (5.00 / 1) (#95)
    by MKS on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 09:21:53 PM EST
    Airing the dirty laundry early does not mean it isn't dirty laundry.....

    It will be harder to re-invent himself in October......

    Parent

    if he even ends up the nominee (none / 0) (#15)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 06:31:10 PM EST
    we will see if that true.  but if you think so I would say there is far more to say than has been said.

    Parent
    exit polls say (none / 0) (#22)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 06:52:28 PM EST
    Newt beat Romney by 10 points on electability

    this is what I have been saying and that has been being poopooed.  southern evangelicals do not think Romney is electable.

    Baa waa (5.00 / 3) (#23)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 06:54:04 PM EST
    but they have now embraced an "adulterer" after all their yammering about "family values". Just goes to show it was never about that.

    Parent
    It is about the version of religion (5.00 / 2) (#96)
    by MKS on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 09:24:49 PM EST
    that conservatives believe in--which is really a cultural grievance....

    It is about the large chip on too many Southernors' shoulders.

    Gringrich proves it is not about the economy for conservartives but about cultural grievance....

    Parent

    what you dont understand (4.25 / 4) (#25)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 06:55:14 PM EST
    is that they are hypocrites.  it is their defining quality.

    Parent
    I know (5.00 / 1) (#28)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 06:57:02 PM EST
    that and YOU know that and have known that but now they can no longer deny it. It's patently obvious.

    Parent
    Wanna bet (5.00 / 1) (#114)
    by cal1942 on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 10:04:11 PM EST
    they'll deny it, in spite of all evidence to the contrary.

    Parent
    Classic (none / 0) (#113)
    by cal1942 on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 10:00:22 PM EST
    Conservative hypocrisy.

    Parent
    even compared to Newt? (none / 0) (#26)
    by byteb on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 06:55:44 PM EST
    Gosh, the mind boggles.

    Parent
    this is the south. (none / 0) (#29)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 06:57:28 PM EST
    I live there and it is exactly what I have been hearing from evangelical relatives.  they will not vote for him.  

    Parent
    And it's (none / 0) (#30)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 06:58:38 PM EST
    the same reason they won't vote for Santorum either. It's religious bigotry pure and simple.

    Parent
    no argument about the bigotry (none / 0) (#32)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:00:17 PM EST
    but Newt IS a catholic  

    Parent
    Do you (none / 0) (#37)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:05:15 PM EST
    really think he's a Catholic? He's a catholic of convenience and he was a Southern Baptist for years. Not the same thing as Santorum.

    The GOP here in the Atlanta area is not happy about Newt's win judging from what I'm seeing on the discussion boards but these are the people who have actually dealt with Newt and know how much of a lunatic he is. I frankly was SURPRISED to see this here. I thought they would be excited about him.

    Anyway they are saying that Romney is about to deploy a very aggressive, Newt is unstable, unelectable and unfit to lead" message, and considering there is mounds of evidence to back that up, it will probably work in FL. They think Gingrich will win S. Carolina, but will get hammered in Florida.

    Parent

    Romney being aggressive (5.00 / 1) (#41)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:09:16 PM EST
    conjures images of an irritated shitzu

    Parent
    No no no no no (none / 0) (#69)
    by Militarytracy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:45:43 PM EST
    Marmeduke...if he could get irritated, and then he'd fall down or something.  Maybe an irritated Irish Setter too?

    Parent
    Scooby-Doo (none / 0) (#73)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:50:41 PM EST
    taxes?  wha taxes

    Parent
    Oh, thanks (none / 0) (#100)
    by gyrfalcon on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 09:39:34 PM EST
    I just spit some very nice wine all over the keyboard.  What an image!

    Parent
    Why was Palin popular with Republicans? (none / 0) (#97)
    by MKS on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 09:26:34 PM EST
    Gingrich taps into the same cultural vein.

    Parent
    Or so he says, (none / 0) (#38)
    by Peter G on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:05:19 PM EST
    anyway.

    Parent
    and btw (none / 0) (#39)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:06:42 PM EST
    its worth mentioning that the republican party is essentially a southern party.

    Parent
    Most repub. don't think he can win. (none / 0) (#47)
    by loveed on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:21:27 PM EST
    Mr 25%. The other 75% will vote for anyone else, even Newt.
     Not because he a mormon, because he a flip/flopper.

    Parent
    Why is Romney bashing Obama is his (none / 0) (#34)
    by byteb on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:02:32 PM EST
    concession speech? Wasted opportunity.

    And what gets me is that the stuff he (5.00 / 1) (#80)
    by ruffian on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 08:18:35 PM EST
    says about Obama is just false. I guess talking to the GOPers he can get away with it, but in the general, I think people have figured out Obama is not a socialist.

    Parent
    And he knows it (none / 0) (#104)
    by gyrfalcon on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 09:50:10 PM EST
    Santorum believes it.  Romney knows it's crap and doesn't care.

    Who the hell knows what Gingrich knows.

    Parent

    clinging to the (none / 0) (#36)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:05:13 PM EST
    inevitability myth.  seems pretty transparent at this point.

    Parent
    When Newt takes Florida (5.00 / 1) (#55)
    by Militarytracy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:28:56 PM EST
    Talk to me then :)

    Parent
    its a deal (5.00 / 1) (#57)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:30:04 PM EST
    Romney's speech exemplifies why he is losing. (none / 0) (#40)
    by byteb on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:07:01 PM EST
    yep (none / 0) (#42)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:09:48 PM EST
    But, but, but (none / 0) (#103)
    by gyrfalcon on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 09:49:03 PM EST
    the collection of a couple dozen undecided Fl voters CNN assembled to watch the speeches basically all decided on Romney after hearing them.

    Parent
    He's sticking (none / 0) (#115)
    by cal1942 on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 10:09:01 PM EST
    to the party line.  There are more primaries ahead.

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    Must be the water in SC? (none / 0) (#45)
    by Edger on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:16:14 PM EST


    Ron Paul speaks. (none / 0) (#48)
    by byteb on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:24:22 PM EST
    I can't follow him for more than a couple of minutes but he looks natty in a blue over sweater that actually fits him.

    thank god for Ron Paul (5.00 / 1) (#50)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:25:51 PM EST
    the perennial whack job

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    who else (none / 0) (#51)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:26:44 PM EST
    would talk about the gold standard if he didnt?

    I ask you.

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    And (none / 0) (#116)
    by cal1942 on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 10:12:06 PM EST
    Classic Crackpot.


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    *pullover (none / 0) (#49)
    by byteb on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:24:51 PM EST
    Newt is a Southerner (none / 0) (#52)
    by Towanda on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:26:54 PM EST
    Period.

    Regionalism wins again in the South, as it so often does in other regions, as well.  This is why Florida will be interesting, with so many snowbirds.  It's the first state not so susceptible to regionalism, vs. Iowa, NH, and especially SC.  But, of course, religion matters in interesting ways in Florida not yet so evident in the previous states.

    I don't think Newt wins in the South (5.00 / 2) (#54)
    by Militarytracy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:28:06 PM EST
    I live in.  I think they want Santorum.

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    I say Ricky is out after FL (none / 0) (#58)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:31:07 PM EST
    if not before

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    Florida is on the 31st (none / 0) (#60)
    by Militarytracy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:35:40 PM EST
    Why do you think he would be out before then?

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    probably not before (none / 0) (#62)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:40:01 PM EST
    judging from the look on his face.  on second thought.

    but why is money and pressure.

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    no doubt Ricky wants to stay in (5.00 / 1) (#67)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:42:44 PM EST
    in the hopes that Romney will be fatally wounded and Newt will be unacceptable and they will pick him.

    I dont think so.  FL will probably decide.

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    John Edwards won South Carolina (none / 0) (#53)
    by Militarytracy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:27:24 PM EST
    Jus sayin :)

    Well yes. And Jesse Jackson won SC (5.00 / 2) (#66)
    by oculus on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:42:33 PM EST
    primary--twice.

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    yes but that is because SC has a lot of (5.00 / 1) (#98)
    by TeresaInPa on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 09:31:04 PM EST
    black people, Obama and his campaign said so.  

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    So what? (none / 0) (#101)
    by MKS on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 09:43:11 PM EST
    This is 2012, not 2008.

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    <snort> Yeh, they all left (none / 0) (#105)
    by Towanda on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 09:50:45 PM EST
    in the last three years.

    You're proving too easy to bait.

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    Nice attempt at cuteness (none / 0) (#117)
    by MKS on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 10:17:41 PM EST
    Shall we talk about the "hard working white people" of West Virginia?

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    "They"? (none / 0) (#119)
    by MKS on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 10:23:09 PM EST
    You're confused (5.00 / 2) (#123)
    by Towanda on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 10:38:36 PM EST
    about this.  There is no problem with the generic "they," when one is not in the state.  So thee and me are "we," and they are "they."

    The problematic usage is "those people," one that I've heard for years, and far to the north, but it's code that is widely understood.

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    Still very awkward and distancing (none / 0) (#124)
    by MKS on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 10:41:07 PM EST
    Silliness. Let's get back (none / 0) (#126)
    by Towanda on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 10:48:24 PM EST
    to the point, which is that your history here generally shows that you're a thoughtful contributor -- except for when you're easily baited about 2008.  Look, it's in the past, so put it behind you.  Of course, there will be references to it, just as there will be references to all sorts of past presidential campaigns.  But every time that you're baited into reliving 2008, you're not contributing to discussion about 2012.

    And you can do the latter, and well, without being sidetracked into this sort of silliness.

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    Hmmm, in the deep south, (none / 0) (#153)
    by jeffinalabama on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 08:52:40 PM EST
    "those folks" means-- those folks. But 'those people' does signify an other-ness, usually something different that is thought to be inferior.

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    they have also (none / 0) (#59)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:31:57 PM EST
    picked the winner of the republican primary every election since Reagan.

    just sayin

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    Who'd they pick before Reagan? (none / 0) (#61)
    by Militarytracy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:36:20 PM EST
    Jus saying :)

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    we are talking about republicans (5.00 / 1) (#63)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:40:41 PM EST
    there is no before Reagan

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    And there hasn't been one since him (5.00 / 2) (#72)
    by Militarytracy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:49:57 PM EST
    But we often do the same thing over and over again expecting different results :)  And now we have fracture, the Republican party has fractured under the weight of 3 decades of Hubris.

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    I think we are (none / 0) (#74)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:51:58 PM EST
    about to be treated to the spectacle of just how fractured they are.

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    Edwards came in thrid (none / 0) (#132)
    by Jeralyn on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 01:08:52 AM EST
    In 2004, he beat our Mittish John Kerry there (none / 0) (#145)
    by Militarytracy on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 08:28:13 AM EST
    by about 15%.  Then got his clock cleaned in Florida because Florida is a very different creature.

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    Rick speaks. Gives some love to Newt. (none / 0) (#64)
    by byteb on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:40:48 PM EST
    Yikes.

    And Newt gave some back (5.00 / 1) (#108)
    by gyrfalcon on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 09:53:45 PM EST
    to Rick in his speech.  Politics and strange bedfellows (cough!) on display.

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    that was interesting (none / 0) (#68)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:43:46 PM EST
    looking ahead?

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    with 60% in (none / 0) (#75)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 07:56:22 PM EST
    he is at 18%.  that is not great.  I was hearing that he needed to be in the 20s to be viable.

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    sepculation on msnbc (none / 0) (#77)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 08:08:56 PM EST
    if Newt will blow himself up on MTP tomorrow.

    he is the scheduled guest.

    MSNBC is wrong, IMO (none / 0) (#110)
    by gyrfalcon on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 09:55:34 PM EST
    Newtie is in magnanimous, avuncular, gravitas-infused mode right now.

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    not a republican campaign (none / 0) (#85)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 08:37:20 PM EST
    an american campaign.

    would that be a veiled threat to run as an independent if they shove him out in the convention or whatever?

    very interesting?

    Newt is just playing to the 'I am an American but (5.00 / 1) (#89)
    by byteb on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 08:57:34 PM EST
    you elitist, food stamp loving, non White people' aren't crowd.

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    Im not so sure (none / 0) (#91)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 09:00:58 PM EST
    I have been surfing.  lots of talk on all cable about what the republican party is going to do to Newt if he keeps winning.

    and they have already pretty much taken a crap on his head a month or so ago.

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    George Will must crying right now. (none / 0) (#92)
    by byteb on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 09:13:43 PM EST
    He detests Newt.

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    I just heard Chuck Todd (none / 0) (#93)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 09:15:47 PM EST
    saying a similar thing about the speech not being a republican speech as much as an outsider speech and how that seemed odd.

    George Will crying could be the best part of this whole deal.

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    That's Newt (none / 0) (#120)
    by cal1942 on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 10:24:32 PM EST
    claiming that only Republicans are Americans.

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    David Gergen on CNN seems to have (none / 0) (#88)
    by byteb on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 08:56:12 PM EST
    experienced a thrill of some sort listening to Newt.

    uh oh (5.00 / 2) (#90)
    by Capt Howdy on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 08:58:59 PM EST
    did it run up his leg?

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    We should bear in mind (5.00 / 1) (#121)
    by cal1942 on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 10:26:13 PM EST
    that in spite of what the media tries to project about Gergen, he's still a Republican.

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    Looks like (none / 0) (#118)
    by CoralGables on Sat Jan 21, 2012 at 10:20:24 PM EST
    a 12 point win for Newt. Turns out to be about a 22 point swing in just a few days. The next polls out of the Florida along with the Gallup Tracking Poll over the next few days will be very interesting.

    South Carolina thought Mitt was the most negative. In Florida thus far all the negative has been from Mitt. He's suffering some serious downward Mittmentum

    Who knows where we will be in Nov.2012 (none / 0) (#129)
    by loveed on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 12:39:58 AM EST
     Will Newt be the nominee? Will there be a 3rd party challenge?
     For those who think this is good for Obama,think again. Obama is a terrible debater.No telepromters allowed. Newt is not afraid of being accused of being a racist(ask Juan Williams).
     Newt loves slapping around the media. And does not cares beans about what the leaderships wants.
     The leadership cut off there nose to spite there face. The right wing ended Huntsman campaign before it really started. Now there left with Newt.
     The repubs. could have had a candidate that cross party lines. But they wanted the power, and choose Romney. No matter what the repub. voter wanted. The repub. leadership thought they would fall in line.
     Maybe the leadership will finally get the message. Newt beats Romney by 12% it was not even close. Romney still can't get over 30%.
     Romney is toast,and the media can't help him.

    You can't project that margin from SC ... (none / 0) (#131)
    by cymro on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 01:07:27 AM EST
    ... to the rest of the country. Both Newt and Romney will produce different voter responses in other states.

    Currently Romney still leads Gingrich in the National polls--see this summary by Real Clear Politics. The last two polls were published today, but before the result was known in SC. So it will be very interesting to see how the SC result affects the next round of National polls.


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    Oops, calendar error. (none / 0) (#134)
    by cymro on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 01:16:13 AM EST
    The most recent National polls were published on Friday 20th. That doesn't change my point, but that additional day it may increase the likelihood that we will see Newt draw closer to Romney in the next round of National polls, in view of his rapid rise in the SC polls in the last two days.

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    If you look at these polls (none / 0) (#135)
    by loveed on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 01:41:39 AM EST
    Romney barely clears 30%, with the margin of error maybe not.
     Even in New Hampshire, Romney basically his home state 39%. 61% against.
     Romney is losing support. The next national polls will have Newt ahead. Newt was ahead before Romney attacked him in Iowa.
     I don't think Newt really wants to be president.But he wants to destroy Romney,because of Iowa.
     He asked Romney to play nice. Newt was on a book tour and not campaigning. Romney should have taken his advice.

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    Obama got 45% of the vote (none / 0) (#133)
    by Jeralyn on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 01:16:03 AM EST
    in SC in 2008. With 4 third party candidates in the race. It has 9 electoral votes. SC voters won't amount to a hill of beans.

    And no shilling for Republicans here.

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    I think (none / 0) (#141)
    by lentinel on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 06:56:53 AM EST
    that we make a mistake underestimating Gingrich.

    He is crazed, true.

    But Obama is so used to four years of expressing timid bromides and having them accepted as profound rhetoric that I wonder how he would look next to Newt in a debate.

    And, as I have mentioned, they are on the same page (expressed or veiled) with some of the most reprehensible assaults on our civil liberties. I would imagine that they are also on the same page (expressed or veiled) with respect to the continuation of rendition, keeping Gitmo open, aggression toward Iran, drug busts, the ordered assassination of an American citizen accused of supporting terrorism, the indefinite detention of American citizens without charge or trial --- etc.

    Personally, I don't trust Obama to make truly enlightened decisions with respect to new Justices of the S.C. either. But I would have to admit that Newt would probably pick someone much, much lower on the evolutionary scale. And if Roe is the issue, I have yet to read something forthright and totally unambiguous from Obama about guaranteeing a woman's right to choose whether or not to bring a child to term.

    But, that having been said, I think we make a mistake cheering and dropping balloons at the prospect of Newt being the Republican nominee. I think a contest with Obama would be fierce. At this time, I think Romney, who is a nothing, would easily be brushed aside. This is contrary to accepted wisdom, I realize.

    But Newt is a real bull.
    And Obama has been behaving as a sheep for many years.

    Disagree completely (none / 0) (#154)
    by AngryBlackGuy on Mon Jan 23, 2012 at 02:04:59 PM EST
    If Newt is the nominee, Obama will win a second term.

    Full stop. No questions.

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