Dick Morris Predicts Romney Landslide!

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2012
Posted on Mon Aug 06, 2012 at 04:55:09 PM EST
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What's really funny about Morris' column is how he gets to Romney winning a landslide:

"Romney is currently leading in every state McCain carried plus: Indiana, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, and Colorado. If he carries these states, he’ll have 228 electoral votes of the 270 he needs to win.

To win the election, Romney would then have to carry Florida where he trails by two points, and either Virginia (behind by two) or Ohio where he’s down by only one. If he carries all three of these states and also wins all the others where Obama is now at 50% or less – Iowa, New Mexico, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey — he will get 351 electoral votes, a landslide about equal to Obama’s 363 vote tally in 2008." [Emphasis supplied.]

Michigan? Minnesota?? Pennsylvania??? New Jersey???? Hell, why not California? Morris actually demonstrates what a daunting task Romney has in front of him. As of now, Romney is not even contesting Pennsylvania's 20 EVs. New Mexico is a long shot at best. There's 5 EVs. New Jersey? Puhleeeaze. 14 EVs. Minnesota? 10 EVs. Realistically, Romney has no shot at any of these states. Thus, his ceiling is about 302 EVs. Romney has to win Florida, Virginia and Ohio to even be on the field. And that's granting Morris' funny numbers (which you really should not.) Romney a landslide? Impossible. He can still win narrowly. But it will be tough.

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Dick Morris Predicts Romney Landslide! | 19 comments (19 topical)

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Every recent poll I've seen of Colorado (5.00 / 5) (#2)
by shoephone on Mon Aug 06, 2012 at 05:32:17 PM EST

shows either Obama in the lead, or the two candidates tied.

See, and I just thought Dick Morris was good at sucking toes. Turns out he sucks at polling too.

Yes, even NH and WI don't seem like (none / 0) (#1)
by Demi Moaned on Mon Aug 06, 2012 at 05:18:04 PM EST

... obvious Romney tettitory.

I'm sure kos will be all over this. He loves Dick Morris.

: Oh, Wisconsin could go Romney (none / 0) (#5)
by Towanda on Mon Aug 06, 2012 at 07:28:51 PM EST

with the voter suppression accomplished by Walker. Seriously, it's a multi-pronged voter suppression plan that means all precedents are moot in Wisconsin -- already the closest state in the country, until 2008 (which I said at the time was an aberration).
But I would need to see a different pollster say so. Morris must be basing his projection on the most recent poll to make headlines in Wisconsin:
Rasmussen.

Important *Florida *Lydecker not a dem (none / 0) (#3)
by thatgirl41 on Mon Aug 06, 2012 at 06:21:25 PM EST

Richard Lydecker donated money to the GOP through 2006...... and....

then started donating to Dems and a few yrs after h began donating to dems he becomes the Democratic Chair??????

Democratic blogs/ radio shows need to call out Florida Dem party on this .... they need new leadership ASAP before election.... something not right.... google his name at campaignmoney.com

A friend (none / 0) (#4)
by Ga6thDem on Mon Aug 06, 2012 at 06:33:19 PM EST

of mine sends me stuff from Dick Morris. I tell her that he has a good operation going. He certainly has learned how to scam conservatives out of their money. I tell her thanks for the info and I'll be sure to watch Morris laughing all the way to the bank.

: The day Dick Morris is really and truly ... (5.00 / 1) (#6)
by Donald from Hawaii on Mon Aug 06, 2012 at 07:31:06 PM EST

... and truly worth six-figure fees from politicians, will be the day that those politicians finally learn to move the decimal point two places to the left.

Fine dining denver (none / 0) (#7)
by Jlvngstn on Mon Aug 06, 2012 at 09:01:30 PM EST

no chains. Will be there next Tuesday eve, any suggestions??

thanks

Meat eater? Buckhorn Exchange! (none / 0) (#10)
by ruffian on Tue Aug 07, 2012 at 07:13:25 AM EST

Historic old building, great food and atmosphere. Right off the Broadway light rail, at 10th Ave.


man food (none / 0) (#11)
by Jlvngstn on Tue Aug 07, 2012 at 08:52:59 AM EST

love it, though i need a french/seafood/mediterranean if at all possible. I will go to Buckhorn when i return in October to meet with two army buddies, buckhorn is just the place for us!


: There was a place on Pearl Street that sounds (none / 0) (#15)
by ruffian on Tue Aug 07, 2012 at 11:55:36 AM EST

about right, but I cant recall the name or if it is still there! I'm sure someone else can give you good suggestions!
Also, Tony Rigatoni's in Morrison is good Italian food!

Not your typical sushi restaurant (none / 0) (#16)
by sj on Tue Aug 07, 2012 at 06:02:56 PM EST

Domo Restaurant. The proprietor is Japanese and the complex not only has a restaurant but a very small museum with WWII artifacts. He has quite a collection of kamikaze pilot sake cups. The complex is also home to Nippon Kan Aikido Dojo. Full disclosure: my son has been a student there for years and is now also an instructor.

Dining there can be a full experience. You can explore the gardens and museum while waiting for your food. In the summer, if a class is in session the doors between the museum and the dojo are left open and you can discreetly observe. I've occasionally watched my son's class in progress. Once Sensei noticed me watching and he moved my son closer to the doorway and put him in the hot seat demonstrating both the "victim" and "practitioner" in the day's technique.

The sushi is country style and fabulous. Also plentiful. You get no little tray for soy sauce/wasabi. You eat it as it is served. And there is no need for any additional condiments. So, so good.

In my family our birthday tradition is that the rest of the family takes him/her out to eat at the restaurant of his/her choice. No arguments or negotiation permitted. My son still chooses Domo in spite of the fact that he eats there regularly and has access to the much discounted student menu.

It's been too long since I've been there.


: thanks (5.00 / 1) (#19)
by Jlvngstn on Wed Aug 08, 2012 at 09:22:52 AM EST

calling today to see about reservations, thanks for the great recommendation...

Article (none / 0) (#18)
by sj on Tue Aug 07, 2012 at 06:09:43 PM EST

about the side dishes from the Domo website. There are actually quite a few articles. Like I said, it's a cultural experience as much as a restaurant.


At least he's toned it down since 2008, I guess? (none / 0) (#8)
by Addison on Mon Aug 06, 2012 at 09:17:40 PM EST

...let's not forget his 2008 electoral map prediction.

: Morris is an incredibly gifted (5.00 / 2) (#9)
by gyrfalcon on Tue Aug 07, 2012 at 12:31:33 AM EST

political analyst, but his judgment is grossly distorted by his emotional biases-- which is why Bill Clinton relied on him and then ditched him. He can sometimes be eerily accurate, and sometimes crazily off the reservation.
He's pitched his tent with the crazy right in the last X years and is consumed by trying to figure out what to tell them that will make them happy but not utterly destroy his credibility in the process.
He's a rather fascinating psychological study, actually. I see him from time to time on Fox, and it's always fascinating, sometimes fascinating as in watching a train wreck in progress. But he's almost always got his fingers on some nub of truth, which makes it hard to figure out when the pandering to the crazies is in control and when he's actually on to something.
I totally understand why Bill Clinton was for a time addicted to him, and why Hillary wanted him booted out on his fanny as soon as possible.

To be fair to Morris, what you wrote (none / 0) (#12)
by Buckeye on Tue Aug 07, 2012 at 09:01:38 AM EST

is not exactly what he was saying. He followed your above quote with:

The strong probability is that Romney does, in fact, carry Florida, Ohio, and Virginia and a share of the other states where Obama is below 50% of the vote.

So while he said if Romney wins all of them, it would be a landslide. But he also said the likely scenario is only a share of them, which is not the same things as all of them.

IMO, I think Romney will win Indiana and North Carolina. I think he has a decent shot in Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada, Colorado and Virginia. I think he is a long shot in Michigan and PN (unlikely, but if things go in his direction, possible).

I agree Romney has an uphill battle but so does anyone trying to take out an incumbent - especially one that is liked.

Morris predictions (none / 0) (#13)
by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Tue Aug 07, 2012 at 10:03:11 AM EST

Well he predicted a GOP 100 house seat pickup in 2010. Nope. He predicted a GOP Senate in 2010 as well. Nope.

Its not nice to pick on the weak and crippled.

: My favorite (none / 0) (#14)
by Buckeye on Tue Aug 07, 2012 at 10:26:23 AM EST

Hillary was a certainty to be President unless the GOP ran Condi.
However, he may have been wrong about the numbers, but the GOP did have a historic wave election.

And yet (none / 0) (#17)
by Mr Tuxedo on Tue Aug 07, 2012 at 06:03:51 PM EST

I have this uneasy feeling that 2012 could be the year of something like the Bradley Effect -- not really about racism but still about perceived support that isn't really there. I think it's possible that people who are now expressing support for Obama's re-election are doing that just to get along/go along and may sit on their hands come election day. We will see.