In 2013 alone, the group’s report claimed nearly 10,000 operations in Iraq: 1,000 assassinations, 4,000 improvised explosive devices planted and hundreds of radical prisoners freed. In the same year it claimed hundreds of “apostates” had been turned.

The 2013 report (in Arabic) is here. In May, 2014, the Institute for the Study of War did a comprehensive analysis of the 2012 and 2013 reports, and concludes ISIS' metrics-driven military command makes it much more like a professional military organization than a terrorist group.

ISIS’s progress in its campaign to control territory in Iraq is visible in its reported statistics, with shifts in Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTPs) from armed assaults to more selective assassinations/targeting killings and IEDs. The destruction of houses, establishment of checkpoints, and claims to control cities speak directly to control of territory – including in provinces outside of Anbar.

The analyst concludes:

Statistics presented in these reports serve to confirm of previous ISW assessments of a phased campaign design by ISIS. Not only on a tactical level, but also operationally, ISIS is working to wrest control of Iraq from the ISF. The change in TTPs from armed attacks; to targeted killings and attacks; to demolition of houses, checkpoints, and control of cities; and possibly from there to Shari‘a law and governance, resembles the “Clear, Hold, Build” strategy of classic insurgency literature.

This observation of ISIS as an insurgency in Iraq combines with the observation that they are functioning as a military rather than as a terrorist network. A counter-terrorism strategy that does not take these characteristics into consideration will under-estimate and fail to defeat this enemy.

One prime reason for the reports, according to the analyst's report, is just like the goal of most corporate annual reports: to attract more investors (or in this case, donors.)

So with two years of detailed ISIS reports on its operations, clearly showing its tactical strategy to take over Iraq, available publicly, was the U.S. really caught off-guard by the most recent ISIS attacks? Also factor in that in February, 2014, Defense Intelligence Agency Director Michael Flynn testified before Congress on the agency's annual Threat Assessment report. His prepared testimony states:

Al‐Qa’ida in Iraq (AQI), also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL): AQI/ISIL probably will attempt to take territory in Iraq and Syria to exhibit its strength in 2014, as demonstrated recently in Ramadi and Fallujah, and the group’s ability to concurrently maintain multiple safe havens in Syria.

However, its ability to hold territory will depend on the group’s resources, local support, as well as the responses of ISF and other opposition groups in Syria. While most Sunnis probably remain opposed to AQI’s ideology and presence in Iraq and Syria, some Sunni tribes and insurgent groups appear willing to work tactically with AQI as they share common anti‐ government goals. Baghdad’s refusal to address long‐standing Sunni grievances, and continued heavy‐handed approach to counter‐terror operations have led some Sunni tribes in Anbar to be more permissive of AQI’s presence.

Since the departure of U.S. forces at the end of 2011, AQI/ISIL has exploited the permissive security environment to increase its operations and presence in many locations and also has expanded into Syria and Lebanon to inflame tensions throughout the region. .. And, the likelihood of more attacks in Lebanon is high. Concurrently, AQI remains in control of numerous Syrian cites such as Raqqah, Al‐Bab, and Jarablus.

DNI Director James Clapper told the Senate Intelligence Committee about the growing threat of insurgent groups and named ISIS as one of the top three:

“Three of the most effective are the Al-Nusrah Front, Ahrar al-Sham and the Islamic State of Iraq in the Levant, or ISIL as it's known, whose numbers total more than 20,000.” the director of national intelligence added.

As the Financial Times says:

What is clear from the documents is that Isis’s campaign to control Sunni-populated Iraqi territory – and its capture of the second city of Mosul – should not have startled either the Shia-led government in Baghdad or its western allies.

So why is the U.S. playing dumb, as if it was taken by surprise?

In related news, this morning ISIS launched a mortar attack on Iraq's Bajii oil refinery, the country's largest. ISIS had surrounded the refinery last week, and yesterday, the refinery halted operations.

Feel free to talk about all ISIS related topics in this thread