He says that current estimates of 15,000 troops to fight ISIS are laughably low. He ends with a quote from Michael Sherer that the Islamic jihadists have been fighting since 1979 and they have never been stronger than they are today.

Cantlie is animated and quite a good speaker. While he's clearly reading from a teleprompter, he is very comfortable with the script and he modulates his voice for emphasis at certain points. He's up to date on the latest details of the coalition countries. I wouldn't be surprised if he wrote the script himself. The language is very Western, with none of the flowery words the English speaking ISIS folks use. There's no reference to religion or Allah.

Does he have Stockholm syndrome? Does he believe ISIS might let him live if he plays his part well, or might increase the abuse if he doesn't? Or does he genuinely believe what he's saying? Since he makes some good points (or at least ones I agree with, particularly about the futility of the war against ISIS) I think it's possible he does believe what he's saying.

He makes an issue of how Obama and U.S. intelligence officials were caught so off guard by the rapidity of ISIS' advance, they were left stumbling for a response. But Obama put al Baghdadi on the State Department's capture or kill list in August, 2013.

The United States has offered a $10 million reward for information that helps authorities kill or capture Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. This reward is second only to information leading to Ayman al-Zawahiri, the chief of Al Qaeda’s network, and symbolizes our ongoing commitment to helping our partners in the region eliminate this threat from their territory.

In this regard, the United States is prepared to work closely with the Iraqi Government to confront the threat posed by Al Qaeda in Iraq and other terrorist groups. We look forward to discussing bilateral cooperation in this and other areas, pursuant to the Strategic Framework Agreement between our two countries...

Obama recognized the threat of ISIS, even after its change of name from al Qaida in Iraq to ISIS and after it moved from Iraq to Syria:

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, also known as Abu D'ua, is now based in Syria and has changed the name of AQI to the Islamic State of Iraq and Sham (ISIS). He has taken personal credit for a series of terrorist attacks in Iraq since 2011, and most recently claimed credit for the operations against the Abu Ghraib prison outside Baghdad, the suicide bombing assault on the Ministry of Justice, among other attacks against Iraqi Security Forces and Iraqi citizens going about their daily lives.

(One would assume garden-variety terrorists are put on a terror watch list, not a "capture of kill" list, and that the "capture or kill" list is used for high level terror leaders who the government views as a significant, ongoing threat to America. If not, the capture and kill list is unconscionable, with no redeeming value.)

So while it's possible that Cantlie is right that Obama and U.S. intelligence didn't recognize the speed with which ISIS would take over such a large amount of physical territory, gain followers and capture U.S. equipment, Obama clearly realized ISIS was a threat. And he was determined to assist Iraq rather than putting us into another war. I wish he kept that position, because this war is going to be a disaster for us.

American and European moral outrage at ISIS beheadings (which I share) was not a reason to go to war. It's also bad strategy, because by putting all our military might in the ISIS basket, we are just giving al Qaida central and its allied factions, who truly hate America and want to destroy us, room to grow.

We should have stayed out of ISIS' path, and kept our watchful eye on Al Qaida. It will soon have the strength to return, whether we destroy ISIS or not. Sometimes you need to see the forest through the trees.

Good luck to John Cantlie. I certainly don't blame him for doing whatever he thinks best to stay alive.Maybe our new besties, the moderate rebels, will free him. I suspect instead we'll soon see the black-clad executioner, following through on ISIS' threat to kill Alan Henning, and that Cantlie will meet a similar fate as soon as he's outlived his usefulness to ISIS. After today's airstrikes, I won't be surprised if the Henning video airs tomorrow. There were reports from anti-ISIS activists in Raqqa this weekend that ISIS had taken a hostage to the desert. They saw the caravan of cars and trucks, just not who was inside or whether he was actually killed.